It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the 2026 Midterms: Trump Voters, Swing States & the Senate Map

Summary

Podcast Summary: "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the 2026 Midterms: Trump Voters, Swing States & the Senate Map"

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show – iHeartPodcasts
Date: March 16, 2026
Host: Ryan Graduski (substitute host for this episode)
Guest: Jessica Anderson (President, Sentinel Action Fund)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on dissecting the political landscape heading into the 2026 midterm elections, with a sharp focus on data-driven insights: fresh polling, focus group results, and the realities of pivotal Senate races in key swing states. Special attention is paid to the behavior and priorities of low-propensity Trump voters versus swing voters, how these groups will drive outcomes in Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and Maine, and broader reflections on the changing American political map. Intelligence and wit guide the discussion, offering listeners a behind-the-scenes look at the numbers and sentiments shaping the upcoming elections.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Dissecting Recent Polls in Ohio

[02:36–10:45]

• Ohio as a Battleground:
  Ryan Graduski opens with an anecdotal and statistical review of a recent poll by EMC Research showing Democrat Amy Acton leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 10 points in the governor's race. He casts serious skepticism on the data and the pollster's reliability, citing the New York Times' standards for credible polling.
  • "It's not something to invest in...until we see Emerson or Ohio State do a poll finding these results, I don't buy it." (Ryan Graduski, 06:20)
• Vivek’s Campaign Strategy:
  Emphasizes Ramaswamy’s massive ad spend ($10 million), featuring his wife rather than himself in commercials due to internal findings that "when Vivek was on screen people liked him less."
• Takeaway:
  Despite eye-catching numbers, real movement in Ohio will only be clear when reputable pollsters weigh in. Ramaswamy remains favored due to party infrastructure and financial resources.

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2. Washington State's New Millionaire’s Tax and the Political Impact of Tax Policy

[10:45–14:30]

• Washington’s First Income Tax:
  Legislature passes a 9.9% tax on incomes over $1 million, likely to affect ~20,000 households.
• Historical Comparisons:
  Ryan draws parallels to Connecticut, which imposed an income tax in 1991 and since saw an exodus of wealth.
  • "Connecticut was the destination for New Yorkers who couldn't deal with taxes... now it's one of the most taxed states in the country." (Ryan Graduski, 12:35)
• Broader Implications:
  Warns that overtaxing can drive population loss and loss of Congressional seats, referencing the impending 2030 reapportionment.
  • "Money goes where it is valued and it stays where it is protected." (Ryan Graduski, 13:40)

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3. Focus Group Insights: Trump Voters vs Swing Voters in Key States

[17:30–22:12]

• Key Differences in Turnout Motivations:
  • Low-Propensity Trump Voters:
    See the 2026 midterms as a referendum on protecting the Trump agenda. Favor candidates positioned as explicit partners with Trump, tolerating short-term pain on issues like the economy in trust of Trump’s long-term plan.
  • Swing Voters:
    Treat midterms more as a check on Trump, favoring candidates with independent platforms focused on state-specific issues.
    • "The magic sauce for how Republicans can win in November... is finding the things that tie both groups together." (Jessica Anderson, 18:35)
• Shared Priorities:
  Tax cuts and deregulation appeal broadly across both voter groups.
• Chaos Fatigue:
  Swing voters exhibit “chaos fatigue” and are wary of instability—whether caused by Trump’s style or potential Democratic overreach (e.g., impeachment threats).
  • "They also see if Republicans lose the House... Democrats will revert to impeachment and more chaos." (Jessica Anderson, 21:05)

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4. Senate and Governor Races Deep Dive

Georgia: The Ossoff Factor

[24:10–26:35]

• Jon Ossoff’s Vulnerabilities:
  Despite media optimism, Ossoff isn’t running away with swing voters, who see him as too focused on “Never Trump” messaging and opposing popular economic measures like no tax on tips and crypto.
  • "One in four Georgians actually own a crypto asset...crypto is freedom from the traditional financial market." (Jessica Anderson, 24:57)
• Crypto as a Political Issue:
  Significant portion of Georgia voters see crypto positively, and anti-crypto sentiments are a liability for Democrats.

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North Carolina: Party ID vs. State Identity

[26:35–31:16]

• The New Swing State:
  Influx of independents creates a competitive landscape. Both sides risk focusing too much on Trump; swing voters want state-specific agendas, especially on housing, economic growth, and public safety.
  • "If they only talk about Trump, that is a huge mistake... there's this universe of swing voters that want to hear something else." (Jessica Anderson, 27:53)
• The “Don’t New York My North Carolina” Phenomenon:
  Migrants from northern states rapidly adopt and defend a southern identity.
  • "She was the first in my family to move south and within six years, she says we have to stop all these New Yorkers from coming here." (Ryan Graduski, 30:09)

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Ohio: Incumbency Isn’t Enough

[31:16–35:24]

• Sherrod Brown’s Challenges:
  Longevity breeds fatigue; voters see him as “too old” and out of step. Ohio has shifted decisively red compared to neighboring states.
  • "There was just this general sense that he had been in office long enough, it's time to move on." (Jessica Anderson, 32:18)
• Ramaswamy vs Husted:
  Vivek may boost urban GOP turnout; Husted is a generic Republican who can help in rural areas, potentially forming a mutually beneficial ticket.
  • "Vivek will help Husted with urban vote, Husted helps Vivek with rural vote—a dynamic duo." (Jessica Anderson, 34:18)

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Michigan: The Wild Card State

[35:24–35:56]

• Potential Split Ticket:
  A prominent independent in the governor’s race and GOP Senate contender (Mike Rogers) could result in divided wins—a scenario not seen in Ohio.
  • "The independent could win in Michigan with Mike Rogers winning the Senate, and then you have a split ticket going all the way down the ballot." (Jessica Anderson, 35:41)

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Maine: Fierce Independence & The Collins Challenge

[35:56–41:19]

• Susan Collins’ Balancing Act:
  Collins’ mix of loyalty to Maine-first issues and bipartisan independence is key. The influx of conservative-leaning former Boston and New Hampshire residents could pose both an opportunity and a challenge as they need to feel “permission” to back the moderate Republican.
  • "Maine voters are the most fiercely independent...if what's good for Maine and the U.S. conflict, they choose Maine." (Jessica Anderson, 37:58)
  • "Those Trump-but-independent voters will need to know that it’s OK to vote for Collins." (Jessica Anderson, 40:30)
• Democratic Disarray:
  Both Democratic options—Governor Janet Mills and Graham Platner—face their own vulnerabilities. Platner, in particular, is called out as extreme and unelectable.
  • "Graham Platner...he’s nuts. Like, he spent his whole 30s, not teens, 30s, on Reddit, ranting and raving." (Ryan Graduski, 36:57)

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5. Concluding Insights on Political Realignment & State Strategies

[41:19–43:08]

• Importance of Mixed Representation:
  Ryan reflects that bipartisan representation in traditionally “red” or “blue” states is crucial for robust national problem-solving, especially during regional crises.

  • "It is good when blue states have Republican reps and red states have Democrat reps… important for national issues." (Ryan Graduski, 42:19)

• Plug for Further Resources:
  Jessica Anderson directs listeners to the Sentinel Action Fund website and her X (Twitter) handle for ongoing coverage and reports.

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Notable Quotes and Moments

• On the Reliability of Polling:
  "Wait until we see Emerson or Ohio State... I'm going to believe that Vivek is the likely next governor." (Ryan Graduski, 09:55)
• On the Mistake of Over-Taxation:
  "Taxing yourself into oblivion instead of making things more favorable for people to stay... it's a disaster for blue states." (Ryan Graduski, 13:55)
• Low Propensity Trump Voter Motivation:
  "This is about Congress being a partner, not a blocker to the Trump agenda." (Jessica Anderson, 18:50)
• On ‘Chaos Fatigue’:
  "Swing voters... have a little bit of that chaos fatigue. They don’t want to see craziness." (Jessica Anderson, 21:28)
• Crypto As New Political Issue:
  "One in four Georgians actually own a crypto asset… they see crypto as freedom." (Jessica Anderson, 25:00)
• Maine’s Unique Identity:
  "Maine voters really view life in a split screen—what’s good for Maine versus what’s good for the United States." (Jessica Anderson, 37:53)
• On Graham Platner:
  "He spent his entire 30s... on Reddit, ranting and raving about different insane things." (Ryan Graduski, 36:57)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Description | Timestamp | |---------|-------------|-----------| | Opening Poll Analysis | Ohio polling skepticism | 02:36–10:45 | | State Tax Policy Rant | Washington & Connecticut tax history | 10:45–14:30 | | Focus Group Key Findings | Trump voters vs swing voters | 17:30–22:12 | | State-by-State Senate/Governor Analysis | GA, NC, OH, MI, ME deep dive | 24:10–41:19 | | Notable Quotes/Moments | Including 'chaos fatigue' and 'don't New York my North Carolina' | Various, see above | | Concluding Discussion | National implications, Maine's unique electorate | 41:19–43:08 |

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Tone and Style

The episode is a spirited blend of policy wonkiness, irreverent anecdotes, and sharp, data-driven commentary. Ryan Graduski and Jessica Anderson discuss polling and focus group findings candidly, sparing no state, candidate, or party from scrutiny—and always returning to the practical political consequences of voter sentiment and candidate behavior. The conversation constantly pivots between the numbers, the narrative, and the deeply human quirks of American electoral politics.

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For More Information

• Jessica Anderson:
  • X (Twitter): @JessAnderson2
  • sentinelactionfund.com

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This summary captures the key themes, memorable moments, and actionable insights from "It's a Numbers Game," equipping you with an in-depth understanding of the 2026 midterm battlegrounds—even if you missed the full episode.

Transcript

[Jessica Anderson]

This is an iHeart podcast.

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you guys for being here. Happy Monday, everybody. I have some fresh polling information I want to break down some data you want to know about. So let's get right into it. We have a special guest also who has run focus groups in every important swing state where there's a U.S. senate race going on to talk about the future of the Senate, if Democrats can win, if Republicans can hold it. But let's get into it first. A earthquake of a poll came out in Ohio finding Democrats are up in the Buckeye State, a state I know very well from all my time campaigning there in very, you know, a lot of campaigns. Ohio has. There are parts of Ohio that are lovely, that are beautiful. There are parts of Ohio that have been lost to time. I don't know, I don't understand it. I have been in Ohio sometimes where the roads are closed because literal chickens are crossing the road. I have been. I did a campaign one time in Ohio and I had a man who was like, for legalizing skunk ownership. It was his big passion issue. Another man was carrying lawn signs and put them in the trunk of his car. He had ferrets in his trunk. I said, sir, there are other hamsters. Excuse me, it was hamsters. I said, sir, there are hamsters in your trunk. He goes, oh, you should see my garage. I was like, that is not the answer we were looking for, sir. I mean, it is wild Ohio. Anyway, a poll came out from EMC Research that found that Democrat Amy Acton is leading by 10 points against Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in the governor's race. The poll also found that former Senator Sherrod Brown has a small but respectable lead against incumbent Senator John Usted by four points. Now, this instantly went viral. Everyone started talking about this poll on social media because they were, I mean, they had a lot of opinions about vivec. Some were very thoughtful and they said, you know, this is what happens when we didn't have a real primary, when all these statewide elected who want to turn for governor didn't end up running because Trump endorsed back and it kind of push everybody out of the race. And that's a very thoughtful opinion. Other people, less thoughtful. I'm not going to go into it, you know, I'm not, you know, a big fan of a. But nonetheless, I will, you know, I respect the man for, you know, some things and, and I, and you shouldn't be. Christians should not be Nasty. And it's something's A lot of times with evac it does become nasty. Anyway, so, um, the opinions were out there. But I want to point something out and I think my words are valid, especially because, you know, I'm not the biggest fan of that EMC research. The pollster who did this poll is not a reliable pollster. It is not somebody now put that debt data that they, they created and put that in the back of your head like it's. Don't ignore it completely. But it's not something to invest in. And according to the New and the New York Times agrees with me. By the way, the New York Times said the poster does not meet the requirements. A select pollster. This is what the time says, quote. Pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria below are considered select pollsters by the Times as long as they're conducted polls for nonpartisan sponsors. They either A have a track record of accuracy in recent elections, B is a member professional polling organization or C conduct probability based sample sizes. It's just not something I would give a lot of credence to. Wait until we see Emerson or we see you, Ohio State University or some other institute. Quinny P. AC do a poll in Ohio finding the same results. If that happens, then I'll say, oh, okay, makes complete sense. But every poll so far has had, you know, actin and VAC up or down by a point or two. So to have Acton winning with a landslide 10 points seems highly unlikely to me. I just, you know, I don't find that. Also, the fact is, is that VC has just put in a massive ad spend of $10 million to go up on air. It's gon running across the entire state. A positive ad for him. I saw it. It was his wife talking about him as a father and how he loves his family and how he loves Ohio. I will let you guys in on a little secret that somebody who worked on his presidential race told me. Now the ad focuses solely on really his wife and his wife does the entire narration. Allegedly during his presidential race and his presidential campaign they looked at it and they found that when Vivek was on screen people liked him less. That he did not do a great job when he was the narrator, when he was making his own pitch. That is if that. I don't. I. I heard that. I didn't see any writing about it, but someone higher up on the campaign told me that if that is true, then we will likely see more ads that talk about the back. But he is not the main character on screen. I think that's very interesting. But nonetheless, because he has $10 million, I, I think that. And that's just the beginning of the ad spend. It's going to be millions and millions more. And given the institutional support for Republicans in the state, I still think it's his race to lose. It leans Vivek, certainly. Until I see more independent, nonpartisan polls showing acting with real movement, real, you know, efforts, I'm going to believe that Vivek is the likely next governor. So that's my own personal opinion. Acton has to start spending money, and she doesn't have nearly as much money as Vivek does. Now, there's another story that I wanted to cover that I think is just crazy. Washington state. Democrats in the legislature passed the very first income tax in the state's history. And it's like looking like the governor is going to sign it. So Washington state will become the next state, I believe the 42nd state to adopt an income tax. The income tax is a millionaire's tax, and they expect IT to add $4 billion in revenue. According to the New York Times, it would impose a 9.9% annual tax on people earning more than a million dollars a year. Sorry, I said billionaire. It was a millionaire's tax, a million dollars a year, which is projected to affect 20,000 households in the state. Now, here's the thing. It could cause a few billionaires to leave and even some people who are just millionaires already. Former Starbucks Howard Schultz says that he's moving to Florida. He didn't say it was because the millionaires tax, but it just came at the same exact time it was passed in the legislature. I think we could all read between the lines. I have two main thoughts on this. One, think of Connecticut. Now, you're probably like, what does Connecticut and Washington do with each other? Connecticut was the last state before Washington to adopt an income tax. Connecticut adopted an income tax in 1991, and it was supposed to be a flat tax, four and a half percent. And I believe the conversation at the time was it was only going to be temporary, but a 4, 4 and a half percent flat tax for all people except very low income earners to deal with the state's financial problems. But 1996, it was a permanent thing, was it was a progressive tax. High income earners had a 7% high income tax in Connecticut, you know, and now it's one of the most taxed states in the country. It's a completely unfavorable tax state when its Long history was that it was the destination for New Yorkers who couldn't deal with the taxes anymore and wanted a quick commute to the city. Washington is talking about an even higher tax for people who make $1 million a year. And in, in the last 20 some odd years or 30 some odd years since we saw Connecticut adopt this income tax, a lot of businesses have left. Connecticut is not the destination of billionaires and millionaires like it once was. They have. And even Connecticut's got nice areas, it's got nice beaches, it's got beautiful properties. There's a lot of things that Connecticut has going for it. It's just its tax system is so detrimental that people have just fled the state and their, their Democratic governor has tried to pass tax cuts and try to, you know, make it a little bit better. So kudos to him. However, it's not enough and it's certainly not enough to attract what looks to be almost an exodus from New York City given how close it is to the city. I mean, given how close, you know, if they had no income tax. If Connecticut was like Florida, while Mandani is trying to push all these radical policies on taxation. Oh, I mean, they would be fleeing there faster than you can possibly imagine. It makes no sense why Connecticut of all places, but even Pennsylvania or New Jersey aren't trying to be the Florida of the north. Like try to make the, make a taxation system that is greatly reduced and benefits people who want easy access to New York City. I mean, New York City is 90 minutes from parts of Pennsylvania. Maybe two hours if there's super traffic. New Jer, Connecticut 45 minutes, 45 minutes to an hour. New Jersey is 30, 40 minutes. I mean there's so many for these states to really get, you know, high or income earners or even the middle class away from New York who are looking to flee. And they only have to now under the current conditions. They have to look at North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia. That's a much greater migration pattern than, than just moving a, you know, a few 30 minutes away. You don't take the kids out of school or you know, you can still see your in laws or your parents or take care of an elderly person. Like you can still keep your job. A lot more benefits to for Connecticut or New Jersey and they just chose the opposite. Washington state's making the same, same choice right now. And what I don't understand for Democrats is do you all not think 2030 is going to come? Like, does everyone think that 2030, when we have this Congressional reapportionment with the census coming out that you're just all going to be fine because all these blue states are losing people. California, New York, Illinois, you're going to lose seven or eight electoral college votes. You're going to make it harder for a Democrat president to get elected throughout the next decade because of how bad your policies are. And it's not all because your housing policy. Democrats are obsessed with, oh, we just need to build more houses. No, you need favorable taxation policies too. Money goes where it is valued and it stays where it is protected. It's the people are not just fixed into a certain area because the weather's nice that benefits it. Certainly nice weather is a big, you know, a big reasonable to stay. But in a new digital age, industry doesn't have to stay in any place that Wall street doesn't have to stay in New York. It really doesn't. It's all digital now. These people are insane. They don't know what they're doing for these states. And for Democrats who are looking down, you know, the, the long path to 2030, that's why their own bet to save themselves from political oblivion is, you know, make Washington D.C. estate, make Guam estate, make Puerto Rico a state. Get, you know, get as many states as possible. It's not going to save you. It's just not going to save you. You're making disastrous decisions one after the other. I know it's going to be super popular because it's a tax on millionaires and most people aren't millionaires. Nonetheless, what's popular and what is smart may not always be the same thing. And I say that as someone who's, you know, supports populace a lot. But it is not always the same thing. Taxing yourself into oblivion instead of looking at some things to cut, instead of making things more favorable for people to stay there. And also Washington state has some of the worst weather in the whole country. So you guys not even appealing, people, because you got nice beaches. It's terrible weather. It's raining constantly. That's my little rant. Okay, we have the special guest coming up to talk about what's going on in the U.S. senate and U.S. senate races, the important races. Stay tuned for that. Coming up next,

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[Ryan Graduski]

With me on today's episode is Jessica Anderson. She is the president of Sentinel Action Fund. Now, Jessica, you did a multi state focus group looking at voter in Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, New Hampshire and Maine. And especially looked at the differences between low propensity Trump voters and swing voters, which is a very important context because they will decide the election. What was the most important difference that you found?

[Jessica Anderson]

Well, first, Ryan, thanks so much for having me. You know, to understand turnout for these coming midterms, you have to recognize that the midterms are different than presidential years. And what I mean by that is in a presidential year, you can actually get away without turning out all swing voters. You could really just focus on low propensity Trump voters. Well, with the midterms, you, you actually can't. We have to have Republicans have to have both groups of voters. So when we did these focus groups, we wanted to understand the distinct things about both groups, what's making them tick, what do they like, what do they not like, and then what ties them together. And when we find the things that tie them together, that's the magic sauce for how Republicans can win in November. So the main things that kind of drove the different groups is the, the low propensity Trump voter. They fully see this election as protecting the Trump agenda. This is about Congress being a partner, not a blocker to the Trump agenda. They want to see candidates that are explicitly defined as partners of Trump, that they're tackling the issues that he cares about, whether it's tariffs and trade and no tax on tips, of course, all of his immigration reform policies. These voters are also, they're more bullish on the economy and they also are willing to give Trump more time on the economy. So they may feel this, they feel the same things we do that, you know, the price of goods isn't exactly where they want it to be or gas prices are spiking or increasing because of Iran or other things. They feel those things, but they trust Trump to take a little bit more time to get it right. So that's the kind of the economic side on the, the, the Biden side, they, they have zero interest in returning to any form of Democratic leadership, whether it was Biden, Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama. They have no interest in going backwards. There's not even an appetite to, okay, who's running the Democratic Party. And so you Contrast that with swing voters in these very same states, you know, in some cases living on the same, you know, neighborhoods right on the same blocks. And the swing voter sees the midterm election as more of like a check and balance with the Trump administration. There's some things that they really like that the Trump team has put forward, and then there's other things that they think could be more well rounded or, you know, didn't see around a corner or didn't fully understand the downstream implication of it. And so they want to see candidates that are kind of standing on their own two feet, articulating their vision, in some cases their vision for their specific state. That came up a lot in Maine, came up a lot in North Carolina. Well, what are you doing for me in North Carolina, in Maine specifically. And then they give a little bit of space to say, okay, let Trump be Trump. Right? If Trump's going to do this or that, we're going to let him do that. And so these swing voters, they, they see the same things we do that they, they see the economy, they want it to work for all voters. They want to understand how they're going to keep more money in their pockets. So those tax cuts and the deregulatory agenda are actually two pieces of the Trump agenda that tie together the low prop voter with the swing voter. And the last thing I'll just say on the swing voter, and it could have been a little bit of the timing of when we did these, it was coming right after Minneapolis, right before Iran. So kind of in a really unique moment in our, in our kind of current events. But they've got a little bit of that chaos fatigue. They don't want to see craziness. But it also is a double edged sword, I think, against Democrats because they also see if they, if Republicans lose the House in particular, that Democrats will revert to impeachment. And they view an impeachment as a, you know, a witch hunt and more chaos. So Democrats have to be careful not to lean too far. But I think Republicans have a huge opportunity with swing voters to say we're the Republicans are the party that will govern fairly and effectively, both domestically and then when we make decisions abroad, we're putting America first.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, it's very, I mean, Republicans are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to being closely associated with Trump, who's not his most popular by any stretch of the imagination. And, and all the things that Donald Trump brings negatively and positively, which is a lot of at least chaos when it comes to how the media represents it and how he sometimes represents himself, even when things are much calmer than, than they actually present themselves. And then the second thing is, is they have to appeal to independence as being their own person. Whether they vote 100% Republican or not. They have to show that they have an independent streak. And at the same time, Democrats. There's a lot of conditions that remind me of 2006 or 2 18. But the Democratic brand is so poorly tarnished. The social trust among voters towards Democrats is probably the worst in the country. There's very little things that poll worse than being identified as a Democrat. So they don't have the easiest time either. They may win just because of social conditions, but it's not, it's not this pathway to winning 40 seats like we saw in 2006 and 2008. Something that I thought that was very interesting about your, your poll is, is that a lot of incumbent Democrats. Sorry, your poll, but you saw, your study. A lot of incumbent Democrats who've really harped on impeachment and abolishing ICE are not faring super well like they could be faring better. I mean, among Democrats that I know, there is this hope that John Ossip is going to win in Georgia by 10 points and then be a candidate immediately. The voters in your survey didn't seem like they were all that warm on him, even though that he's, you know, favored to win. But he, he, he's not looking like a 10 point win by, by this kind of survey.

[Jessica Anderson]

Yeah, that's right. And, and that's even before Republicans in Georgia know who is running against him. So Ossoff might be at his peak actually right now before the Republican primary is, is finished. And, and what's happening for swing voters in Georgia is that they see Ossoff, his rhetoric, his messaging and everything is about Trump, is Trump doesn't know what he's doing. It's against Trump. It's never Trump. It's abolish ice. It's saying no to any common sense economic agenda. Like when you saw his opposition to no tax on tips, his opposition to crypto expansion, there's just a, a ton

[Ryan Graduski]

of just normal expansion.

[Jessica Anderson]

He, he doesn't care. No, no.

[Ryan Graduski]

Do voters care?

[Jessica Anderson]

Oh, yeah. It's actually really interesting. Did you know that one in four Georgians actually own a crypto asset?

[Ryan Graduski]

I did not know that. Yes, I did not know that.

[Jessica Anderson]

It's, it's really, you know, I think, I think crypto crypto obviously played a lot in the spending of 2024. And rightly so. Yeah. Our hope is for sure that they're back in 2026. But, you know, when they were spending in 2024, it was, let's retire Sherrod Brown. Let's turn the gavels from, you know, Senate Finance over to Republicans Gary GENSLER. And the SEC had been, you know, just completely Operation Choke Point 2.0. Right. Like this was a whole opposition campaign to stifle crypto. So they had really good reason to, to, to, to be involved and to spend as greatly as they did. But in the course of doing that, they picked up more voters and both Trump voters and swing voters that see crypto as freedom, freedom from the traditional financial market, more choice, more convenience for sharing money and investing. They see it as, as innovative. They want America to be the hub of it. And so we ran a different, a different study than this one, looking at the battleground states to see how like, what is the, you know, how much, how many people actually own a digital asset wallet and are they, where are they going to vote on it? We actually ended up doing a crypto specific focus group in Michigan because I was curious with union workers there how that would butt up against kind of the innovation of crypto. So it's a really fascinating.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, I guess people have made money off crypto. Some people have made a lot of money. So they're like, maybe I can get on it. I don't know. I don't know. I'm not a big crypto person. I'm not, I totally against it, but I just don't really. I'm not this on my niche, but I didn't know that it was that high of a, of a priority. Okay. I want to focus on three states in specific because this will very much decide the state of the U.S. senate. So the first being North Carolina. It is probably the most hotly contested U.S. senate race in the country. It is a vacant Republican seat against the former governor and the Republican army is the former head of the, the rnc. How is it looking? Polls are very lopsided in favor of the Democrat. He's very, very popular. And you said that North Carolinians are among the most are like very much saying, what are you going to do for us in that state? Which would in my opinion kind of benefit the Democrat because the Democrat was the governor of the state.

[Jessica Anderson]

Yes. So North Carolina, of all the states is the, the most tricky. I would say it has the widest gap between the low propensity Trump voter and the swing voter. Now, North Carolina is of course, a state that Trump won handily the last three election cycles. So it has a lot of red meat based voters in the state. But what's happening now is so many new people have actually moved into the state that are those traditional independents and swing voters. So I think, I think the mistake for North Carolina is that you could have a situation where Watley, who's running on a Republican ticket, and Cooper on the Dem ticket, that all the two of them do is talk about Trump. Cooper talks about how awful Trump is and Whatley talks about how great Trump is. If they only talk about Trump, that is, that is a huge mistake for, for, I think, Republicans because there's this universe of swing voters that want to hear something else. They want to know what the plan is for economic growth in North Carolina, in particular the housing sector, the banking sector. They want to know what recovery efforts out west after the hurricane from a year and a half ago now. They want to know what is being done for safety and security after the horrific slaying that we saw on the Charlotte light rail last year. So there's really, I think, juicy things for Whatley, the Republican candidate, to talk about. And I think he actually has started to internalize this. Just this last week he was in North Carolina doing a housing roundtable and talking about education and Linda McMahon also came down into town. So I think Chris Turner to, you know, the president's HUD director. So I think you're going to see more issue specific campaigning coming from the on the ground efforts in the state. And that will, I think, not only raise Whatley's profile, but it'll give him something to talk about and to stand on. And then he'll also be able to point to Cooper's, you know, record. I mean, this was a governor that when he was governor, North Carolina, you may remember this North Carolina too, it was a state legislative bill, but that was the first bathroom bill that, that ran in the country long before women. Securing women's sports and spaces was a national thing. The front lines of that was North Carolina when Cooper was governor. So he's going to have to answer for things that maybe he thought he was, you know, be taking a moderate approach.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah.

[Jessica Anderson]

All those years ago. Now it's extreme.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, it's such a fascinating thing because that first bathroom bill was very unlike even by kind of Trump didn't like it in 2016 and the Republican governor lost reelection on it. And now it is an overwhelmingly favorable thing. But it's also the trans issue is one of those 80, 20 issues that people, everyone agrees with, but no one makes it a priority. And we saw with winsome Sears, it doesn't do enough to galvanize voters. So who knows? I mean, he, it's definitely an interesting race. And no one has seen Watley as a candidate yet as far as any, any electoral history as far as winning races go. So I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until we see something that changes. Cooper also is raising a ton of money and I want to, I want to tell you one other thing. You mentioned this. So about all the new people going to North Carolina. My aunt, my dad's sister moved to North Carolina like probably 15 years ago. And it's from New York's New York, you know, very traditional New Yorker moving down south. And she was really the first person in my family to move south. And, and like within six years, she says we have to stop all these New Yorkers from coming here. I'm like, where do you think that you came from? But like, the need to like all of a sudden have that mentality of I live in the south now is so funny. Okay. The second being like, donut, don't New

[Jessica Anderson]

York, don't New York my North Carolina.

[Ryan Graduski]

I know, but even, even. And it's funny when you see, when you go to like former Californians are like the most Texan people you'll meet, they'll be like, no, no, get these Californians out of here. I'm like, you're from Orange County. What are you talking about? The second thing is I can say was Ohio. Ohio not only has a very highly contested Senate race, but obviously how the contestant governor's race that I covered in my monologue. What are you picking up about Shara Brown? Because this is a case where incumbency or past incumbency really doesn't look like it benefits the Democrat despite, you know, anyone saying otherwise. Sherrod Brown is been there for a long time and I think the reputation of being there for a long time doesn't exactly help him.

[Jessica Anderson]

Yeah, that, that's exactly what our focus groups zoomed in on. As soon as they learned that he was a two time Democrat Senate candidate, or they had forgotten because they had kind of already put all of the Biden years behind them once we reminded of them that there was just this general sense that he had been in office long enough, it's time to move on. He's too old.

[Ryan Graduski]

He was only there for two times.

[Jessica Anderson]

Generation. Yeah, two times.

[Ryan Graduski]

He was there for 25 years, not 12 years.

[Jessica Anderson]

Yeah, 12 years.

[Ryan Graduski]

Oh, wow. Okay.

[Jessica Anderson]

Yeah. And, but that's, but I think that's like, in some ways it's indicative of just how much I think Ohio was actually evolved like Ohio compared to the other states. And definitely in contrast to North Carolina, the voters in Ohio are so much more conservative than those in North Carolina or even Georgia. I mean, even fiscal conservative issues about cutting spending and D reg and the financial impact of these federal programs that Trump has rolled out, like, they, they're not even down with that. So it's, you know, the Ohio of Bush years. Right. We've been thinking about that a little bit. Like Ohio under Bush, it was like, okay, let's go capture those. The, you know, the first ever working class state that Ohio has become so much more red. And as a result, Michigan, its neighbor, has really become the heartbeat of kind of this, the, the mix of the working class, of union workers, pro federal programs, a little bit of fiscal conservatives. Like, that's much more the melting pot. Whereas Ohio has really become very, very red meat. And so I think it's interesting that Sherrod Brown is coming back. It feels a little bit like whack a mole. Like he was just defeated and now he thinks he could come back and run against a former lieutenant governor who is now a senator. And of course, John Husted knows that he's got to do a lot of things to get his own name ID up. But talking and providing that contrast to Brown is the best thing going for housted and that will help him with voters.

[Ryan Graduski]

And John Usad is as of a generic Republican as anybody could possibly be. Like literally just generic R by his name. I mean, there's, there's nothing. I mean, he had a pretty horrific interview like this week. But aside from that, there's, there's very little controversy surrounding him. Did you also look at the governor's race while you were looking at that race? What was, what was.

[Jessica Anderson]

We did, yeah. So what's interesting is that Vivek Ramaswamy, of course, is, is who's running the governor's race for those that may not be following along. And he's been on the road for like, I mean, six months at this point. Right. That feels maybe even longer, maybe even 10 months. And so he's had a huge Runway to build name ID and to start pulling up his coalition. He's going to pull from cities more than Houston will. And so I think this will be interesting to see if the VEC will help housted with the urban vote. And then, yeah, with the urban vote. And then Houston will actually help Vivek with the rural vote. And that will make, I think, a dynamic duo on the ticket itself because they both need each other to have a full ticket win as opposed to in Michigan, where you've got potential, a split ticket between the governors and the Senate races.

[Ryan Graduski]

The Michigan governors race also has a very prominent independent running. So it's very, it's a, it's a much different. I mean, and the independent could win. I mean it's, he's not leading, but he's not far behind. And he is a very well known and popular name in the state.

[Jessica Anderson]

In Michigan. The independent governor could win in Michigan with Mike Rogers winning the Senate. And then you have a split ticket going all the way down the ballot with Secretary of state, ag, state House, state senate races, three house races. I mean, Michigan has a lot on the ballot.

[Ryan Graduski]

There's very much. It's a fun state this year. I mean a. Michigan is not always a fun state, but it's a fun state for politicos to look at. Yeah. No, I'm curious only because for the governor's race there was. Vivek has not been polling well. And the thing that people forget when they look at Ohio, that I'm always interested in is Ohio. For as red as it is and for as electing as many moderate Republicans as it has done. The first time a Republican governor runs, they barely win. I mean, people forget. But Casey gone by two points, DeWine by three. It was been very narrow wins the first time. So it'd be interesting to see somebody who's running very far to the right, farther to the right than Kasich and to wind it, I'll put that a caveat there. I wouldn't say very far right, but further to write than typical Governor Candace does. If it galvanizes people to support them, more or less. It's just, it's interesting. He's got a ton of money and we'll see. I mean, Amy Acton's doing decent fundraising, but it's a ton of money. Okay, last but not least, and this is probably the most interesting one to me is Maine. Maine has Susan Collins running for her sixth term. She has been, she's now the only incumbent person in office who's been in a state that voted against the residential party every time for the last three times. And she is a, she's, she's beloved and hated at the same time, depending on who you ask. And at the Democratic side, you have the, you have the election battle between Governor Janet Mills, who's 80, she's not a young person, but, and she's got, got, you know, back and forth. And then the Graham, whatever his last name is now I'm forgetting. I just a whole episode on him. Graham Platner. Thank you. Graham Platner, who is, he's nuts. Like, he's just nuts. There's no other way to say it. He spent his entire 30s, not, not teens, but 30s on Reddit, ranting and raving about different insane things. So what is the, how is the voters feel going into the center race?

[Jessica Anderson]

I mean, so Maine voters are the most fiercely independent of any of the voters that we talked about. So they, they really view life in a split screen. What's good for Maine versus what's good for the United States. And if those two things are in contrast, they're choosing Maine. Right. So their top issue is housing. They're worried about the economy, the cost of living. They're thinking about oil prices, health care. So all of the issues that the country is thinking of, but they want to know how it's going to impact them directly. And Susan Collins, because she has that fierce independence herself, sometimes voting with the president, sometimes opposing him, they actually love that. They love that about her because they see that as her decision to focus on what's best for Mainers. And so I think the challenge in Maine is for those hundred thousand or so Trump leaning, conservative leaning Mainers that have moved into the state after her election six years ago. They're going to be first time voters for Collins, but they voted for Trump in 2024. They need to feel where are they moving from?

[Ryan Graduski]

Can I ask you, do you know

[Jessica Anderson]

New Hampshire moving? Yeah, they're moving from Massachusetts. They're moving from Boston. They felt like Boston was too liberal, New Hampshire's too liberal. So they're getting out into the, you know, the wide out.

[Ryan Graduski]

Because New Hampshire's government is very Republican.

[Jessica Anderson]

Yeah, yeah. There, there's, there's a whole foot, there's a whole kind of foot, foot traffic going on in the Northeast. And Maine is attractive because there's not a lot of people. So it's that libertarian streak, that independent streak. People aren't going to bother you. It's a good place to raise families if you can, you know, get over the snow for however many months of the year. Yeah, it's really. And it's beautiful, right? I mean, you've been, it's beautiful. I'm sure.

[Ryan Graduski]

I love Maine. I love New England. I love Vermont. I mean, I love New England. Yeah, I, I don't mind snow. I really don't.

[Jessica Anderson]

So, I mean, look, I've got a friend that was in D.C. with us. They lived here with us during COVID They moved to Palm beach because they wanted the sunshine and the open state of Florida. And then they got too hot and they've moved their family of four, they have four kids, so a family of six, they've moved to Maine. It's just, it's happening. So she's a great example. Her and her husband voted for Trump in 2024. First time they're going to be asked whether or not they're going to vote for, for Susan Collins in 2026. So those voters, those Trump but independent voters are going to need to know that it's okay to vote for Collins. They're going to need a little bit of a permission structure. And so I think the fact that you have people like State Representative Laurel Libby, who, you know, rose to national acclaim backing Susan Collins, that shows that conservatives are, can get behind Collins and can be excited for her while she then does the things she needs to do to lock down those independents and Dems. That Dems. I think that will also cross over because whether it's Mills or Plantner, both of them have major problems with what they stand for with their campaigns. I mean, the thing about Plantner that I think a lot of people forget is he's a fraud. I mean, he grew up with money.

[Ryan Graduski]

I did a whole episode on this. He's a fraud. He said white people are stupid. Rural whites are stupid. He doesn't. He has a. He's a small business owner who doesn't make any money on his business. He has, he said at 35 years old he was a devout Communist. I mean, yeah, the guy is. He. He also trained a paramilitary organization for socialists like Rifle Association. It's. He's whack a doodle do crazy. But he very likely will be the Democratic nominee. I mean, at this point, unless Janet Mills, unless they are under polling institutional Democrats who support Mills either which way Susan Collins is, usually has the fight of her life against her. And she will have a big fight this time, but she's probably the most. It's. I always say it is good when blue states have Republican representatives and when red states have Democrat representatives. Because when there is a national issue, it is important that, you know, we have representation. Like when California had their wildfires. California's gonna have very few Republicans anymore. What's the point of the coalition of the delegate, how influential the delegation be when there's only four members and vice versa. If Texas has a disaster, there's only seven Democrats, how important is their del important is the delegation to the overall national conversation. So that's, you know, very, very interesting. But I think Susan Collins is super important. Okay, Jessica, where people go to read more about what you do, your op eds, everything?

[Jessica Anderson]

Oh yes. Please follow along on x it's Jess Anderson 2 or follow [e-mail] we've got a great substack under the same name, sentinelactionfund.com we we send all of the this to our substack followers regularly and we'll be posting from the trail. We launch our efforts in Michigan next week and so expect to hear a report of how it's going for Mike Rogers.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. All right, great. Thank you so much for coming on this podcast.

[Jessica Anderson]

Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.

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[Ryan Graduski]

now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryan@Numbersploral numbersgame podcast.com I get to all your questions eventually. I know I have a lot backed up now, but I will get to them. I'm I'm looking forward to new ones. I have a couple people who send me emails constantly and I love you for it, but I always like to get a new one from somebody who hasn't been read yet. So send me an email when you when you can. I really really appreciate it. It does a lot for the to okay, this one comes from my buddy Cameron. He writes one of my friends has fallen into the quote woke right in quote. I'm trying to figure out how I can pull him back. I I asked Cameron for details and he said he believes things like the Rothschild conspiracy, that the Rothschilds were the reason behind all the wars. Israel killed Charlie, Kirk, jfk, Epstein and and Epstein was a Mossad agent rather the Clinton's ambushes were part of a secret society that worshiped demons. He has fallen on hard times. I don't know what to say and he makes up new claims faster than I can research the old ones. This is tough because this is not a isolated incident and I think that honestly like things like chat GPT sometimes have made things worse because they confirm bad conspiracies. I have somebody who I know not super well but I know him throughout my life who is he's actually in a mental hospital now because he fell into a AI induced psychosis where he was like I think his wife's design she he's spending like 10 to 12 hours a day Talking to chat G. And it's like dangerous. I mean, these are. This is. It's certainly dangerous for people who are on the fringe to begin with. What I would say is this is. There are times that conspiracies are legitimate, but oftentimes they are not legitimate. And people will look to conspiracies when they feel their own life is out of control, when it could be poor decision making, bad luck, bad timing, the run, you know, know, a roll of the dice, whatever the case is. And their life is not in the best circumstances, they fall into. Or they. Or the, or even they think the country's on the best circumstances, they fall into belief that there must be a secret cabal of a few people who have made the decisions to get us to this place. That they are the victim of all these circumstances and something bigger than them is really what. What's trouble. What's. What's. What's making these decisions. That doesn't. I'm not saying that there aren't lobbyists. I'm not saying there's not special interest groups. I'm not saying there aren't politicians doing backroom deals at times. However, that is not the case for why the country is not is the way that it is. It's not the case for why society is the way that it is. It's not the case for why joblessness is always the way that it is. And I'm trying to say this very delicately because I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings if you're on this fringe, but this is how I equate it, right? Go through your phone. How many contacts do you have? I have like 1400 saved contacts in my phone, which I thought was normal, but my friends were like, you're insane. Probably not many contacts. And I'm. And I'm notoriously bad, by the way, for saving phone numbers. So it's probably closer to 2000. Think of how many people of your phone contacts are truly gifted, truly on the upper, upper echelons of intelligence or talent or something like. Think about how many are genuinely like blows you away. Probably less than 5%, right? That are really gifted. That is true of the world at large. Very, very few people are, are. Have genuine explosive talent who could play in the NBA, who could be a performer on Broadway, who could be you nuclear engineer scientist that discovers, you know, a. A groundbreaking new thing. Talent is so randomly dispersed and it is so fundamentally rare. Right? Not everyone can write a great novel. Not everyone can do everything. I certainly can't do A lot of things and for the rest of society and by the way and that on the flip side f only like 5 to 10% are truly can't do anything. Like you're like wow, this you're, you know, you're a disaster area. They can't, I can't, you know, they're on the very, very low end for the 90 or the 80 or whatever is there. You're just normal and you're in the middle. I know normal is like an offensive term because everyone wants to feel special. I don't mean that you're not special. I'm not saying you don't have, you know, a soul and you're not made and you're special because you're made in God's image. Like that's why you're special. But I'm not saying you're not special. I'm saying that you're in just the normal. Like you're like the 80% normal. I fit in that 80 to 90% normal. Maybe I'm on the middle to higher tier, but I'm not in any class that should like enormously amazing. And it's that 80 to 90% who are not hyper motivated, not hyper energized and in politics, right? That whole, that whole, that whole group that is true of talent is also true of political activity. 80, 90% they go to vote maybe a lot, maybe sometimes, but they're not hyper energized. And it's the 5% that never show up and the and don't care and don't want to talk about and the 5% who will talk about it at any given whim that really decide a lot of things because they are highly motivated and they have pushed for policies that are not great and they have pushed for things that are not great. But they're not part of a secret society and it's not like they always get their way and it's not like they are all communicating with one another. Do you understand what I'm saying? I think to rather than trying to dismiss or fact check him every single time you're falling into a rabbit hole that waste your time. I think it's part of a bigger psycho analysis of what's wrong with you where you feel like you're out of control of your own life and you feel like Americans don't have a say in their country. What makes you feel this way as a whole? Because a lot of things that you think are being decided for you. One, you're part of the decision making and a lot of things that are being decided for America. Americans have decided to, to, to go this way, to live this way, to, you know, have falling marriage rates or support politicians that support war or whatever the case is. No one's making South Carolina vote for Lindsey Graham. They are choosing to vote for Lindsey Graham. And likewise, no one is taking your country from you. A lot of times your countrymen are giving it away. And I think that that is something that's a very hard pill to swallow, especially when you disagree with that. I disagree with how New Yorkers voted for Mandani, but I don't believe it was like an Islamic underground overtaking. We have a lot of dumb people who voted in a very bad way for a man who, you know, couldn't run an ice cream store and is running the biggest city in the country. That's not the same thing as believing that there's a secret cabal anyway. That's, I think, how you should approach it. Approach it from what's going on with them that they feel this way rather than trying to fact check them. You're going to end up in a space where you'll just have a headache and want to cut it off because there's no end to the psychosis. You either have to figure out where they are or. Or move along. Anyway, that's this episode. I hope you guys enjoyed it. I will be back on Wednesday. Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or get this podcast and on YouTube. Please subscribe to my YouTube page. It makes a lot of difference. Thank you guys. I'll talk to you later.

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