It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Democratic Wave: Why Republicans Struggled in Key 2025 Elections

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode Title: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Democratic Wave: Why Republicans Struggled in Key 2025 Elections
Date: November 6, 2025
Hosts/Guests: Ryan Gardusky (Host, filling in), Zachary Denini (Data Scientist, Guest)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the 2025 election results, focusing on the nationwide Democratic wave and dissecting why Republicans struggled in key contests. Ryan Gardusky hosts a candid discussion bolstered by data-driven insights from Zachary Denini. They analyze turnout patterns, demographic shifts, the anatomy of wave elections, and lessons for the GOP, using notable races in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City as case studies.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Democratic Wave: Scope and Drivers

[02:57–07:45]

• Democrats experienced a "triumphant night" across blue and red states alike.
• Republican turnout was low in many non-high-profile states (e.g., Pennsylvania, Georgia, Kansas), hurting down-ballot races.
  • Quote: “The overwhelming response from Republicans was, I didn’t know there was an election happening.” — Ryan Gardusky [03:43]
• College-educated whites, the highest-propensity voters, shifted further left and turned out in “big, big numbers.”
• Independent turnout was particularly low, with many likely being Trump voters or formerly committed Republicans.
  • “Independents usually always vote at a lower propensity than Republicans and Democrats, but it was very, very low.” — Ryan Gardusky [05:15]

2. State Breakdown: Virginia, New Jersey, New York City

Virginia
[07:47–09:50]

• Winsome Sears was “a bad candidate” and ran a poor campaign; suffered a loss with the “worst election results for a Republican in almost half a century.”
  • Contributing factors: government shutdown effects, the incumbent president dynamic, and anti-Republican sentiment.
  • Quote: “You have the government shutdown, you have a bad candidate on top of the ticket...a perfect storm against Winsome Sears.” — Ryan Gardusky [08:25]

New Jersey
[09:55–11:30]

• GOP saw an increase in registered Republicans and votes, but Democratic turnout massively outpaced it.
  • Example: Jack Cittarelli gained 122k more votes than in 2021, but Democratic nominee Mikey Sherrill had 400k more than Murphy did in 2021.
  • “Mikey Sherrill had so many Democrats vote for her she was only 400,000 votes away from hitting Kamala Harris numbers.” — Ryan Gardusky [10:55]
  • “There’s no shame in sitting there saying somebody of the opposite party ran a good campaign. But it also speaks to the environment of the year.” — Ryan Gardusky [11:12]

New York City
[11:45–13:45]

• Notable decline in Black and Hispanic support for Cuomo in the general versus the Democratic primary. Many shifted to the official Democratic nominee, Zoram Mamdani.
  • “Had Cuomo received the amount of support in the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn in Black and Hispanic areas that he won in the Democratic primary, he would be mayor right now and not Zoram Mamdani.” — Ryan Gardusky [12:41]
• Voters in majority-white and East Asian areas largely stuck with Cuomo.

3. Theories, Trends, and Data on Turnout and Party Realignment

[13:45–19:00]

• The notion that this wave is a comprehensive rejection of “all things MAGA” and a sign of realignment among young voters and Hispanics is premature.

  • Hispanic areas such as Passaic, NJ showed big swings back to Democrats, but remained right of their pre-Trump baselines.

• Bright spots for GOP were sparse: a few wins on school boards and county races.

• Ryan stresses that wave years are “wave years for a reason,” and losing by huge margins is typically about the political environment, not the quality of specific candidates.

  • Quote: “If you lose by one vote, you should spend the entire next six months thinking about how you didn’t campaign hard enough. If you lose by a million votes, it wasn’t about you.” — Ryan Gardusky [18:12]

• The American electorate is “overwhelmingly frustrated” and keeps seeking change — demonstrated by the succession of wave years (2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2024, 2025).

• Economy, AI, housing crisis, and immigration anxieties play a role; these issues are “not good, especially for young people,” and are fueling volatility.

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Deep-Dive: New York City Race & Demographics with Zachary Denini

[21:43–31:05]

Republican/Trump Voter Behavior

• Curtis Sliwa dropped from 15–16% in polling to 7% on Election Day, as many GOP voters rallied around Cuomo, especially after a Trump endorsement.
  • Quote: “A lot of Republicans had the thought process that they liked Sliwa more than Cuomo...but they probably held their nose and voted for Cuomo.” — Zachary Denini [22:09]

Demographic Shifts in the Mayoral Contest

• Cuomo lost Black and Hispanic voters in the general, even though he’d carried them in the primary. They defaulted to the candidate with the “D” next to their name, Zoram Mamdani.
  • Quote: “The D next to Mamdani's name — that first column is really, really valuable with Black voters in New York City…” — Zachary Denini [24:17]
• White and East Asian areas supported Cuomo; South Asian neighborhoods performed better for Mamdani.
• Insight for National Races: In the Democratic primary, Black voters often block establishment-upsetting progressives (e.g., AOC running for president might struggle in Deep South primaries), but once a candidate is officially nominated, they rally behind them.

Hispanic and Youth Vote

• Hispanic vote swung sharply back to Democrats but remained more Republican than pre-Trump years, indicating some durability in the coalition Trump built.
  • Quote: "You know, 30-point swings to the left towards Democrats from 2024, but those areas were still 14 points to the right of where they were in 2021." — Zachary Denini [27:22]
• Youth turnout was critical for Mamdani, attributed as much to anti-Cuomo sentiment and effective social media as to ideology.
  • “Mamdani really transformed the electorate in a way I don’t think we’ve seen candidates do other than Donald Trump in the last 10 years.” — Zachary Denini [29:28]

Lessons for Republicans and Establishment Democrats

• The presence of the “D” remains decisive in urban voting blocs, especially for Black and Dominican voters.
• For Republicans: Youth mobilization and effective social media are crucial, and their absence limits outreach (seen in Mamdani’s energized support, especially among 18–49-year-olds).
• The diversity of the electorate in ethnically stratified cities can lead to surprising outcomes; traditional tools of coalition-building may need re-examination.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• “The overwhelming response from Republicans was, I didn’t know there was an election happening.” — Ryan Gardusky [03:43]
• “Winsome Sears was a bad candidate, right? I’m not going to sugarcoat it.” — Ryan Gardusky [07:52]
• “Had Cuomo received the amount of support in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn in the black and Hispanic areas that he won in the Democratic primary, he would be mayor right now and not Zoram Mamdani.” — Ryan Gardusky [12:41]
• “If you lose by one vote, you should spend the entire next six months thinking about how you didn’t campaign hard enough. If you lose by a million votes, it wasn’t about you.” — Ryan Gardusky [18:12]
• “Curtis Sliwa is going to end up with about 7% of the vote in polling…The Trump endorsement, I think, of Cuomo, definitely helped.” — Zachary Denini [22:02]
• “The D next to Mamdani’s name…that first column is really, really valuable with black voters in New York City and across the country.” — Zachary Denini [24:17]
• “Mamdani really transformed the electorate in a way I don’t think we’ve seen candidates do other than Donald Trump in the last 10 years.” — Zachary Denini [29:28]

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Important Segment Timestamps

• [02:57] — Ryan Gardusky opens post-election analysis.
• [07:45] — Detailed Virginia election breakdown.
• [09:55] — New Jersey turnout details.
• [11:45] — New York City’s unique demographic voting shifts.
• [13:45] — Macro analysis of wave elections and party realignment.
• [21:43] — Zachary Denini joins, offers New York City deep-dive.
• [27:22] — Hispanic vote trajectories and 2028 projections.
• [28:45] — Youth vote and social media’s role in campaign success.

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Tone and Final Takeaways

The tone is frank, analytical, and sometimes self-deprecating, with both Gardusky and Denini challenging oversimplified narratives about realignment or Trump’s influence. They emphasize data, historical perspective, and nuance over partisan spin.

• Wave years are about broader political moods, not individual candidates.
• Democratic turnout and coalition discipline are at a historic high, especially in urban contests.
• Republicans need honest reflection on turnout, economy, youth engagement, and adapting to changing demographics.
• The electorate’s “frustration” is fueling continual pendulum swings, and the parties’ coalitions remain in flux despite headline-grabbing swings.

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Concluding Thoughts

“Don’t despair. If you ran for office last night and you lost…it was probably the year that it was in. And Republicans have a year to make some serious changes in order to avoid a catastrophe in the midterms.” — Ryan Gardusky [18:55]

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(For more from Zachary Denini, visit his Twitter and Substack: zacharydenini.com)

Transcript

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[Ryan Gardusky]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gardusky. Happy post election Thursday. We're taping some Wednesday, so I got confused for a second, but happy post election Thursday. It was a wave, there's no easy way to say it. It was a Democratic wave across the whole country. I was paying attention to local races and states that were not making the national news in Kansas, in Connecticut, in, you know, Georgia in red, states in blue. And Democrats absolutely had a triumphant night. And there's I think multiple reasons for that. First, in states without heavy high profile elections like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Kansas, Republican turnout was pretty mild. Republican turnout was very low in some places and it definitely hurt Republicans down ballot. I know for our school board campaign in Pennsylvania, we for the very first time had door knockers knocking on doors and we pay them to go knock on doors. And the overwhelming response from Republicans was, I didn't know there was an election happening. And you could tell by the time, by the way that the votes that were coming out In Georgia where Republicans lost a statewide election for the first time in 20 years by 20 points, it wasn't a high profile position, but they did nonetheless lose it by a substantial margin in an election they weren't expected to. So the low turnout from non high profile states definitely hurt, definitely hit with this great political realignment that has been happening. We are seeing college educated whites, highest propensity voter. They are the ones who are shifting further to the left. And they showed up in big numbers, big, big numbers. The we no Kings rally, almost a We are the Kings rally, the no Kings rally, those groups of voters were showing up in droves. And I don't know, and I don't know in the average non Virginia, non New York City, non New Jersey state, if there were Republicans even engaged at the same level. So I think that that was a big part of it. Nationwide was just the high propensity turnout, high election, high interest election. The independent number, the number of independents showing up was particularly low compared to their usual percentage. And many of them were probably Trump voters or non committal Republicans. Lower propensity people, Independents usually always vote at a lower propensity than Republicans and Democrats, but it was very, very low. So I think that's the overall country to begin with. Then when you look at high, high stakes states, I guess states that the media was covering back and forth, like Virginia, New York City and New Jersey, I think that there was two different things happen. So we'll start in Virginia. Winston Sears was a bad candidate, right? I'm not going to sugarcoat it. I was hearing from people on other campaigns in Virginia how poorly she was running her operation and it showed she lost by the worst, by the worst election results for a Republican in almost half a century. She just did terribly. She turned people off. But there was also the issue of the government shutdown. And that definitely affects people. In Virginia, there was the issue of Trump's the incumbent president. Whenever you have the incumbent president being at one party, Virginia and New Jersey goes the other way. It's a knee jerk reaction. That's part of the zeitgeist. You have the government shutdown, you have a bad candidate on top of the ticket, and you have the Republican being in power in the White House. And all those things make up a perfect storm against Winsome Sears. Jason Mearez losing by, I think six points was way larger than I thought it was. But it shows the intensity to which the anti Republican sentiment was there. Remember, I said to everybody, if Winsome Sears loses by double digits, Jason Mears is going to lose. She lost by 14 points. Had she lost by eight, Jason Mears would have won and so would a lot of other Republicans down ballot when it comes to New Jersey. I was on Buck and Clay's show on Tuesday and I was just telling them early numbers coming out of New Jersey and the Democratic turnout was preposterously high. It was insanely high. I want you to think of this, that Jack Cittarelli, the Republican nominee who ran in 2021, he got 122,000 more votes than he received in enough to win in a 2021 election. Right. Had we done the 2020 election, 2021 election again, and Murphy, Governor Murphy had the same amount of votes that he had gotten that year. But Jack Chiarelli had gotten 2025 numbers. Chitterelli would have beat Murphy. Cittarelli had that much new voters. Remember I said New Jersey has 160,000 new registered Republicans. But even though Jack Ciarrelli got 122,000 new voters, the Democrats, Mikey Sherrill had over 400,000 new voters. They turned up out of the woodwork in remarkable numbers, right? Jack Cittarelli got 1.255 million last time. He got 1.37 million this time. 1.37 million, big number. Murphy got 1.33 million last time. Mikey Sherrill got 1.79 million this time. Huge, huge increase coming out of South Jersey of the Democrat of the average Democrat voter. Mikey Sherrill had so many Democrats vote for her that she was only 400,000 votes away from hitting Kamala Harris numbers. That's remarkable. And kudos to her campaign for running a good campaign. I mean, there's no shame in sitting there saying somebody of the opposite party ran a good campaign. But it also speaks to the environment of the year. That's part of it. And that's what I want people who feel deflated to realize the year. Sometimes there are just bad election cycles, right? Sometimes there are bad election years. There were. I have a friend who ran for office in New York in a republic leaning area, who had a lot of money, campaign money, who had a ground game, who had an operation, who was really, really working hard for the seat, and the Democrat had no visible campaign whatsoever, was working out of a U haul truck after they were evicted from their campaign office. That is not a joke. That's really happened. And. And the Democrat won. And the Democrat won by big numbers. Even though the Republican, who's replacing a conservative Democrat, even though The Republican got 5,000 more votes than the incumbent got in the last election, it didn't matter because the turnout was just too high, right? Democrats were turning out at probably 75 to 80% of a presidential year. Republicans were probably turning out at 60, 65%. Independ were at 40, 45% in the new York City mayoral election. And I'm going to talk to Zachary Denini later about this because he covered the mayoral election pretty intensely. The most fascinating and interesting thing that you are going to maybe not hear, you should hear, is that in the Democratic primary, Governor Cuomo won the support of Hispanics in the Bronx and blacks primarily, right? Asians, a lot of whites. They voted against him in this election. According to the New York Times, majority white areas voted overwhelmingly for Cuomo and majority east Asian areas voted overwhelmingly for Cuomo. You know who didn't? Blacks and Hispanics, the same people that they thought were going to be the last ones in his coalition, completely abandoned him. They voted entirely for the person with the D at the end of their name because they are Democrats. Had Cuomo received the amount of support in the Bronx Queens and Brooklyn in the black and Hispanic areas that he won in the Democratic primary, he went, if he had those percentages, he would be mayor right now and not Zoram Ghani. That base leaving him and even though he got larger amounts of, you know, basically the old Bloomberg coalition speaks to why he lost and Curtis Lewis embarrassed himself. And I'm so, so ashamed of him. He should never show his face in public again. What a complete, complete loser. Anyway, that's my initial thoughts, but we're going to hear a lot in the next coming weeks and days. Democrats and the media are going to sit there and spin this and sit there and say, this is a complete reflection of Donald Trump. This is a rejection of all things MAGA. This is a rejection of everything that 2024 was about. This is the real re. Realignment of young people and Hispanics. Two things on that, the Hispanic numbers. We're going to wait and see. We're going to find out what the actual turnout was in places like New Jersey. I looked at one city ahead of this, ahead of this podcast, and that was Passaic, New Jersey. Very Hispanic in 2017. And in 2021, the Hispanic vote was D +54 and then D +38. In the presidential elections in 2016 and 2020, it was D +51 and then D +25. You could see the trajectory towards Republicans. And then in 2024 it was R +7. Trump won it by 7 points and this year was D +24. Now that is a massive 30 point swing towards the Democrats. However, it is still to the right of where they were in 2021 by 14 points. I think those comparisons are going to be very useful because despite a wave election, let's see if the new coalition that Trump built of voters is back to where they were before Trump ran in 2024. I doubt that they are. I don't know if they are. But what I, what I want to say to the bigger idea of, of the, of the last night was there were a couple of bright spots for Republicans. Nassau County Republicans picked up a board and school board in Loudoun County, Virginia. There was a handful of things here and there for the, for the most part, that was, it was horrible. I think Republicans, and especially Republicans in D.C. should have an honest moment with themselves about the state of the economy. The economy is not good. We cannot lie and just say it's great because Trump's president. It is not good. For young people especially, it's not good. There's a lot of anxiety right now over AI, over the changing in the job market, over what other people can afford to live. There is a housing crisis in this country in large part because of immigration. Just saying it like it's saying it. There is an immigration. The immigration that the Bush and Reagan coalition supported in this country for decades brought in the people. Zora Mandani brought in his family, brought in the families of people who believe in socialism that were elected across the country last night in places like St. Paul, almost in Minneapolis. But we'll see if that election holds out later on. But in all these elections, the far left, a lot of them were bolstered by the mass immigration of the third worlds in our country who fundamentally believe in socialism. And I don't. I think that. I think that Republicans need to have a moment and a reflection over what the economy looks like right now, what the state of immigration has done to this, done to us in our country, and really make an important pivot at the same time. It was a wave year, right? It was a wave year in overwhelmingly blue states. Don't set your hair on fire. I always say to candidates, if you lose by one vote, you should spend the entire next six months thinking about how you didn't campaign hard enough. If you lose by a million votes, it wasn't about you. And for a lot of these Republicans, it wasn't about them. There was nothing that they could done to win. Just like there was a lot of Democrats. There was nothing they could have done to win in 2010 or in 2014, just like for a lot of Republicans, nothing they could have done to win in 2006 or 2008. Wave years are wave years for a reason. And I think what we are, the most interesting thing that we are seeing is if you go through our trajectory, 2025 being a wave year, 2024 being basically a wave year, 2022 not being a wave year, that was the one exception. But 2020 being a wave. 2018 being a wave. 2016 being a wave. 2014 being a wave. The American public for the last decade is overwhelmingly frustrated with how things are working out. And they are just going to the next shiny object who can sit there and make the economy work for them and make the economy work for their kids, and we'll see how this all shakes out. I don't think that it's that bad because you cannot control for a wave. And if you ran for office last night and you lost, I know that that's bruising, but just know it was probably nothing that you could do. It was probably the year that it was in. And Republicans have a year to make some serious changes in order to avoid a catastrophe in the midterms. With me coming up next is my friend Zachary Denini. He's going to go over the data from New York City and show us if there's any lessons that we can learn for the nation as a whole from Mandani's win. That's coming up next.

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[Ryan Gardusky]

With me on today's episode is data scientists. One of my favorite people on Twitter, Zachary Denini. Thank you for being here. So, Zach, your coverage of the New York mayor's race is better than almost anybody else's on social media.

[Zachary Denini]

Thank you.

[Ryan Gardusky]

What surprised you? Because you said for a while he was definitely winning. He was winning a majority. What, if anything, surprised you?

[Zachary Denini]

Yeah, I think the number one thing that surprised me was that the Republicans really, really, really rallied around Cuomo.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Right.

[Zachary Denini]

I think Curtis Lewis is going to end up with about 7% of the vote in polling. He was at 15 or 16 for a while. The, the Trump endorsement, I think of Cuomo definitely helped. Right. Because I think Sliwa was at 10 or 11 in the early vote and then fell down. He was at maybe, I think six or seven, five and a half in the election day vote. So. So the Trump endorsement helped a lot. But yeah, even in that early vote, I think, you know, a lot of Republicans had the thought process that they liked Sliwa more than Cuomo. They answered in polling, they were going to support Sliwa. And then they, they came out, probably held their nose and voted for, for Cuomo.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Yeah. I can tell you anecdotally, as a New Yorker, my whole life, I know probably seven people, seven Republicans that stayed with Sliwa. They, but they had made their decision a long time ago and they probably, they were voting for sleep, but they were voting for Cuomo. What surprised me is, is that a lot of people and a lot of people on online especially said Cuomo needs these Bronx Hispanics, blacks, outer burrows to go vote. And in the end, he lost them. He lost the establishment Democrat voter to Mandani. Had he had those voters, he would have beaten Mandani. Yeah.

[Zachary Denini]

If he did how he did with blocked voters and Dominican voters in the primary. I, I think, yeah, he would have, would have been really close with mom Donna.

[Ryan Gardusky]

It would have been, it would have been especially close. Yeah. Because in the, and, and in southern Brooklyn, Right. It was in Queen Brooklyn and the Bronx where his numbers fell apart and the should. And it was almost like the Bloomberg coalition very much because he did Far better in Manhattan than I thought he was going to.

[Zachary Denini]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Ryan Gardusky]

His numbers in Manhattan were very strong. Yeah. And I think that what their lesson is for as a political consultant, what my lesson is, is that these types of voters will always vote for the establishment Democrat, even when you are. Even. They'll vote for the Democrat, even when you have a. A socialist, maybe.

[Zachary Denini]

Yeah.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Yeah.

[Zachary Denini]

So, yeah, I think that the. The D next to Mamdani's name. Right.

[Ryan Gardusky]

That.

[Zachary Denini]

That first column is really, really valuable with. With black voters in New York City and across the country. Right, right. I mean, Cuomo was the establishment D in the primary. Black voters broke for Cuomo, then Mamdani won the primary, got the D next to his name for the general election, and I think black voters really basically kind of respected that and back their nominee. What this reminds me of is oftentimes you get these elections where you maybe have a special election and then you have a rematch in a general election. And what often happens is the person who wins this special election will win the general election by much, much more, maybe something like five or six months later. Because just being that incumbent, winning the first time, getting the D next to the name, the. The Democratic establishment voters who maybe vote a little bit less based on ideology and more on party loyalty, respect that.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Right. And also what it tells me from a national point is, is that, you know, if AOC runs for president, which who knows if she's going to, but let's say she does.

[Zachary Denini]

Yeah.

[Ryan Gardusky]

You know, it's the black vote in South Carolina and the Deep south and Super Tuesday states that will stop her. Right. That will not support her. Very likely.

[Zachary Denini]

Be her weakest demographic.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Right. But they will then turn around and support her overwhelmingly in a. In a general election. There's been very little light on it going into. And also, by the way, one other thing, the Asian vote voted for overwhelmingly.

[Zachary Denini]

So Mamdani did really well in South Asian areas, but East Asian areas like Flushing and then in southwest Brooklyn were Cuomo won. And those were areas Cuomo flipped from the primary and Mamdani did. Did well with the East Asian voters that are still in the Democratic coalition. I think Nate Cohn had a really nice analysis about how the vast, vast majority of voters in that June primary.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Were Harris voters, not Trump voters.

[Zachary Denini]

But when you added Trump voting Asians to the mix, which. Those areas shifted as hard Right. As almost anywhere in the country last November, Cuomo kept those voters.

[Ryan Gardusky]

I think that when you extrapolate from. I know you focus primarily on New York when you look at New Jersey and Virginia and other races throughout most of the country. I mean, Democrats had a great night. I think that it's part of, I think that part of what Mandani's wave was, was just the overall wave happening in the nation towards the Democrats. Yeah. And I know I, I, I, I know you don't give up like opinion about this, but what was your, if you, and if you look at the Latino vote specifically, which was a lot of focus on it, they definitely shifted left. But in some parts, especially in New Jersey, where it's been looked at, they did not shift as left as they had for pre 2020.

[Zachary Denini]

Yes.

[Ryan Gardusky]

So they, they were not back to pre 2020 numbers. Is that an accurate statement to say?

[Zachary Denini]

Yeah, yeah, I think so. So again, I'm getting my hands on a lot of precinct data today. I think I'm going to be able to dive into it tonight and tomorrow and publish more, you know, thought out analyses. But from the anecdotal stuff I've been seeing online, yeah, we're talking about 30 point swings to the, to the left towards Democrats from 2024. It looks like in a lot of North Jersey Hispanic areas, but a lot of those areas, especially Dominican ones, were, you know, 40 or 50 point swings to the right. So that's, that's, I think going to be the, the big question heading forward in national politics is Trump proved that there is a Republican candidate who can really, really compete and generally I would say narrowly lose Hispanic voters in a place like North Jersey and win them in Texas. And it looks, and you know, there's going to be down ballot lag. They're going to stick with the Democratic Party in some elections. But come 2028, I have no idea what North Jersey Hispanics will look like in the presidential election.

[Ryan Gardusky]

So how much does, how much does the youth turnout matter for the mayoral election for Mandani? I mean, obviously it was basically you tracked a big part, portion of it. And is it just that his message and his social media presence, which is very, very important, his social media was so exciting rather than the fact that they're all socialists now.

[Zachary Denini]

So I think first of all we're talking about, you know, 18 to 49 year old voters in New York City are, are probably substantially, substantially more socialist than, you know, the, the country as a whole. The, you know, this isn't anything new.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Right.

[Zachary Denini]

The DSA has been, you know, extremely strong in New York. They have a lot of boots on the ground. I think it's one of the cities where they're strongest in the US but anecdotally and through polling, I can also tell you that a lot of the, the youth were, were coming out for Momdani against Cuomo. Right. I think people see Cuomo with, with the scandals, the, you know, sexual harassment issues as, you know, a Democratic Party that they don't like. And Mamdani is a fresh face with a great social media presence who I also think, you know, you know, a lot of Democrats are talking about the lessons they can learn from his, his campaign. And yeah, one of those is, is the youth turnout was, was pretty striking. And Mamdani really transformed the electorate in a way I don't think we've seen candidates do other than Donald Trump in the last 10 years.

[Ryan Gardusky]

What lesson is there for Republicans and all that?

[Zachary Denini]

What lesson?

[Ryan Gardusky]

Establishing Democrats?

[Zachary Denini]

So I think there's going to be a lot of discussion. You know, is Mamdani strong? Is he weak? And I think this election last night does not give us a good data point on that. And my argument for why is that, you know, if, if Bernie Sanders ran against Joe Manchin nationally with a D next to his name or something, the, that's like a tough election to parse. Right. Because we usually talk about Democrats versus Republicans, and in a Democrat versus Democrat general election, you know, Cuomo is going to peel off a lot of those moderate Democrats and that's nothing that Mamdani is doing wrong. Right. Because, you know, a progressive Democrat running against a moderate Democrat is tough because the moderate Democrat should get Republicans and Democrats. On the flip side, Mamdani had the D next to his name. And we talked about earlier about why, you know, that's very good because you get the, you know, establishment, you know, Dominican and black New Yorkers, you know, coming home for you.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Right. Well, Zachary, where people go to read more of your stuff and all your things and your substack and Twitter and.

[Zachary Denini]

Whatnot, go to Zachary denini on Twitter. One word and then my substack [e-mail].

[Ryan Gardusky]

Go check him out. It's so good. He's so, so smart. Zachary, thank you for being on.

[Zachary Denini]

Yeah, thank you so much for having me on.

[Rodney Williams and Travis Holloway]

I'm Rodney Williams. And I'm Travis Holloway. Welcome to the wealth break. Let's be honest. Building wealth doesn't look the same for everyone. It's not just about saving. It's about investing. It's about navigating systems that weren't built for you, embracing your hustle and relying on your community to create something bigger. And that's exactly why we created the Wealth Break. We made something different, something more human. It's not just another financial podcast. It's a conversation about real life, real struggles and real wins. We're here to talk about the journey. You're hearing from people who've broken barriers, found creative ways to succeed, and learn to build wealth on their terms. Whether it's the first time homeowner, a gig worker, or someone turning a side hustle into a six figure business, we're bringing you their stories. And we're not stopping at success stories. We're breaking down the realities like what it means to take risk, how to navigate failure, and why resilience matters. Because wealth isn't about money. It's about creating a life where you can thrive and help others to do the same. So if you're ready for a podcast as much as about people as it is about money, you're in the right place. Listen to the Wealth Break podcast on the iHeartRadio app.

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[Jacob Goldstein]

Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting, all linked and talking to each other. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o dot com.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment of this podcast. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryanumbers pluralgame podcast.com I questions I think it makes a really good show. Our first question comes from Jason. He sits there and says thank you that he loves the True Crime content that I did in the last episode. Thank you so much Jason for listening to this podcast or watching me on YouTube. I mean maybe I will do a whole True Crime episode around the holidays when there's really not a lot of news going on and there's not a lot of data to sit there and pour over. But I really enjoy it. I love that kind of those Kinds of stories. So I will definitely maybe do an episode or just a full Q and A true crime stuff in the future. Next question comes from David. David said, Dave Rather says, hey, Ryan, can you do an episode about why 90% of Black people vote for Democrats? I don't know if it's a full episode, Dave. That could do it. Look, the black vote has been not a completely monolithic vote, but it's been fairly monolithic, basically, since they had the right to vote. They used to be Republican, now they're Democrat. I think that when you look at. There's a lot of things going on. There's part of it is the history of blacks in America, which has been one of immense suffering, an immense amount of racism. And even I, who thinks a lot of the DEI stuff is way overblown, who thinks that a lot of the reparations conversations is deliriously stupid. You have to sit there and acknowledge how bad blacks had it in this country. There was genuine racism against them. And there becomes a mindset in the black community, especially about, like, we can all do better together and we can all, all. We could all kind of float together. All our ships can float together. All our ships can sing together. When the black vote moved in 1964, I mean, it was a very coordinated by LBJ. LBJ knew when he passed the Civil Rights act, he'd have the blacks voting for the Democratic Party for the next hundred years. He said it, and he said it explicitly using the N word. And I think that at this point, the reason that you're seeing some kind of transformation is a lot of the institutions in the black community, the black church, black universities, that young blacks are not as part of those institutions as they used to be. And also, they are not parents at a young age like they used to be. They're not teenage parents hardly at all anymore like they used to be. So now that there's some independence from those institutions that kept them as Democrats, I think that that is an important reason. But, yeah, the institutions kept them. Kept them Democrats. It was reinforced over and over again. To be a good black person was to be a Democrat. And they pulled the racism card as frequently and as often as they possibly could. So that is. Yeah, that's pretty much why maybe I'll have a guest sit there and talk about the history of it and the few exceptions to black, to black candidates and black people and Republicans, rather, who did well with black candidates. Mike Huckabee did phenomenally well with black black voters in Arkansas in 1998. I think he got 50%. I think he's the only Republican to get a majority of the black vote, any statewide office of the last three decades. But I have to check on that. But that's, yeah, that's, that's real reason why. And that is. And maybe I'll do a full thing, maybe I'll do a full episode of Republicans who won sizable numbers of the black vote and how they did it. Like Arnold Schwarzenegger, like, like Mike Huckabee. As I said, you know who didn't was winsome Sears. She did not do it. Nominating a black Republican does not ensure any black votes. That is the lesson from last night and the many other times it has been tried. So thank you for listening this podcast. I'll see you guys next Monday. Have a great weekend. Don't despair. And if you like this podcast, Please subscribe on YouTube or the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast. Wherever you get your podcast, I'll talk talk to you guys next week.

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[Jacob Goldstein]

This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting. All linked and talking to each other. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com I'm Rodney Williams.

[Rodney Williams and Travis Holloway]

And I'm Travis Holloway. Welcome to the wealthbreak Podcast, a real conversation about finance. Let's be honest, building WEFT doesn't look the same for everyone.

[Ryan Gardusky]

I feel like sometimes being broke is.

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[Rodney Williams and Travis Holloway]

To revisit that and we're not stopping at success stories.

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What happens when it doesn't go right? How do you cope with it?

[Rodney Williams and Travis Holloway]

Because wealth isn't just about money. It's about creating a life where you thrive and help others do the same. Listen to the Wealth Break podcast on the iHeartRadio app.

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[Ryan Gardusky]

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