Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode Title: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Democratic Wave: Why Republicans Struggled in Key 2025 Elections
Date: November 6, 2025
Hosts/Guests: Ryan Gardusky (Host, filling in), Zachary Denini (Data Scientist, Guest)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the 2025 election results, focusing on the nationwide Democratic wave and dissecting why Republicans struggled in key contests. Ryan Gardusky hosts a candid discussion bolstered by data-driven insights from Zachary Denini. They analyze turnout patterns, demographic shifts, the anatomy of wave elections, and lessons for the GOP, using notable races in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City as case studies.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Democratic Wave: Scope and Drivers

[02:57–07:45]

• Democrats experienced a "triumphant night" across blue and red states alike.
• Republican turnout was low in many non-high-profile states (e.g., Pennsylvania, Georgia, Kansas), hurting down-ballot races.
  • Quote: “The overwhelming response from Republicans was, I didn’t know there was an election happening.” — Ryan Gardusky [03:43]
• College-educated whites, the highest-propensity voters, shifted further left and turned out in “big, big numbers.”
• Independent turnout was particularly low, with many likely being Trump voters or formerly committed Republicans.
  • “Independents usually always vote at a lower propensity than Republicans and Democrats, but it was very, very low.” — Ryan Gardusky [05:15]

2. State Breakdown: Virginia, New Jersey, New York City

Virginia
[07:47–09:50]

• Winsome Sears was “a bad candidate” and ran a poor campaign; suffered a loss with the “worst election results for a Republican in almost half a century.”
  • Contributing factors: government shutdown effects, the incumbent president dynamic, and anti-Republican sentiment.
  • Quote: “You have the government shutdown, you have a bad candidate on top of the ticket...a perfect storm against Winsome Sears.” — Ryan Gardusky [08:25]

New Jersey
[09:55–11:30]

• GOP saw an increase in registered Republicans and votes, but Democratic turnout massively outpaced it.
  • Example: Jack Cittarelli gained 122k more votes than in 2021, but Democratic nominee Mikey Sherrill had 400k more than Murphy did in 2021.
  • “Mikey Sherrill had so many Democrats vote for her she was only 400,000 votes away from hitting Kamala Harris numbers.” — Ryan Gardusky [10:55]
  • “There’s no shame in sitting there saying somebody of the opposite party ran a good campaign. But it also speaks to the environment of the year.” — Ryan Gardusky [11:12]

New York City
[11:45–13:45]

• Notable decline in Black and Hispanic support for Cuomo in the general versus the Democratic primary. Many shifted to the official Democratic nominee, Zoram Mamdani.
  • “Had Cuomo received the amount of support in the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn in Black and Hispanic areas that he won in the Democratic primary, he would be mayor right now and not Zoram Mamdani.” — Ryan Gardusky [12:41]
• Voters in majority-white and East Asian areas largely stuck with Cuomo.

3. Theories, Trends, and Data on Turnout and Party Realignment

[13:45–19:00]

• The notion that this wave is a comprehensive rejection of “all things MAGA” and a sign of realignment among young voters and Hispanics is premature.

  • Hispanic areas such as Passaic, NJ showed big swings back to Democrats, but remained right of their pre-Trump baselines.

• Bright spots for GOP were sparse: a few wins on school boards and county races.

• Ryan stresses that wave years are “wave years for a reason,” and losing by huge margins is typically about the political environment, not the quality of specific candidates.

  • Quote: “If you lose by one vote, you should spend the entire next six months thinking about how you didn’t campaign hard enough. If you lose by a million votes, it wasn’t about you.” — Ryan Gardusky [18:12]

• The American electorate is “overwhelmingly frustrated” and keeps seeking change — demonstrated by the succession of wave years (2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2024, 2025).

• Economy, AI, housing crisis, and immigration anxieties play a role; these issues are “not good, especially for young people,” and are fueling volatility.

Deep-Dive: New York City Race & Demographics with Zachary Denini

[21:43–31:05]

Republican/Trump Voter Behavior

• Curtis Sliwa dropped from 15–16% in polling to 7% on Election Day, as many GOP voters rallied around Cuomo, especially after a Trump endorsement.
  • Quote: “A lot of Republicans had the thought process that they liked Sliwa more than Cuomo...but they probably held their nose and voted for Cuomo.” — Zachary Denini [22:09]

Demographic Shifts in the Mayoral Contest

• Cuomo lost Black and Hispanic voters in the general, even though he’d carried them in the primary. They defaulted to the candidate with the “D” next to their name, Zoram Mamdani.
  • Quote: “The D next to Mamdani's name — that first column is really, really valuable with Black voters in New York City…” — Zachary Denini [24:17]
• White and East Asian areas supported Cuomo; South Asian neighborhoods performed better for Mamdani.
• Insight for National Races: In the Democratic primary, Black voters often block establishment-upsetting progressives (e.g., AOC running for president might struggle in Deep South primaries), but once a candidate is officially nominated, they rally behind them.

Hispanic and Youth Vote

• Hispanic vote swung sharply back to Democrats but remained more Republican than pre-Trump years, indicating some durability in the coalition Trump built.
  • Quote: "You know, 30-point swings to the left towards Democrats from 2024, but those areas were still 14 points to the right of where they were in 2021." — Zachary Denini [27:22]
• Youth turnout was critical for Mamdani, attributed as much to anti-Cuomo sentiment and effective social media as to ideology.
  • “Mamdani really transformed the electorate in a way I don’t think we’ve seen candidates do other than Donald Trump in the last 10 years.” — Zachary Denini [29:28]

Lessons for Republicans and Establishment Democrats

• The presence of the “D” remains decisive in urban voting blocs, especially for Black and Dominican voters.
• For Republicans: Youth mobilization and effective social media are crucial, and their absence limits outreach (seen in Mamdani’s energized support, especially among 18–49-year-olds).
• The diversity of the electorate in ethnically stratified cities can lead to surprising outcomes; traditional tools of coalition-building may need re-examination.

Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• “The overwhelming response from Republicans was, I didn’t know there was an election happening.” — Ryan Gardusky [03:43]
• “Winsome Sears was a bad candidate, right? I’m not going to sugarcoat it.” — Ryan Gardusky [07:52]
• “Had Cuomo received the amount of support in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn in the black and Hispanic areas that he won in the Democratic primary, he would be mayor right now and not Zoram Mamdani.” — Ryan Gardusky [12:41]
• “If you lose by one vote, you should spend the entire next six months thinking about how you didn’t campaign hard enough. If you lose by a million votes, it wasn’t about you.” — Ryan Gardusky [18:12]
• “Curtis Sliwa is going to end up with about 7% of the vote in polling…The Trump endorsement, I think, of Cuomo, definitely helped.” — Zachary Denini [22:02]
• “The D next to Mamdani’s name…that first column is really, really valuable with black voters in New York City and across the country.” — Zachary Denini [24:17]
• “Mamdani really transformed the electorate in a way I don’t think we’ve seen candidates do other than Donald Trump in the last 10 years.” — Zachary Denini [29:28]

Important Segment Timestamps

• [02:57] — Ryan Gardusky opens post-election analysis.
• [07:45] — Detailed Virginia election breakdown.
• [09:55] — New Jersey turnout details.
• [11:45] — New York City’s unique demographic voting shifts.
• [13:45] — Macro analysis of wave elections and party realignment.
• [21:43] — Zachary Denini joins, offers New York City deep-dive.
• [27:22] — Hispanic vote trajectories and 2028 projections.
• [28:45] — Youth vote and social media’s role in campaign success.

Tone and Final Takeaways

The tone is frank, analytical, and sometimes self-deprecating, with both Gardusky and Denini challenging oversimplified narratives about realignment or Trump’s influence. They emphasize data, historical perspective, and nuance over partisan spin.

• Wave years are about broader political moods, not individual candidates.
• Democratic turnout and coalition discipline are at a historic high, especially in urban contests.
• Republicans need honest reflection on turnout, economy, youth engagement, and adapting to changing demographics.
• The electorate’s “frustration” is fueling continual pendulum swings, and the parties’ coalitions remain in flux despite headline-grabbing swings.

Concluding Thoughts

“Don’t despair. If you ran for office last night and you lost…it was probably the year that it was in. And Republicans have a year to make some serious changes in order to avoid a catastrophe in the midterms.” — Ryan Gardusky [18:55]

(For more from Zachary Denini, visit his Twitter and Substack: zacharydenini.com)