It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Democrats’ Decline: Trump’s Influence, AOC’s Rise, and a Party at a Crossroads

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: “It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Democrats’ Decline: Trump’s Influence, AOC’s Rise, and a Party at a Crossroads”

Date: October 23, 2025
Host: Ryan Graduski (Numbers Game)
Guest: Dan Turdine (“Morning Meeting,” “Group Chat” on Two Way)

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Brief Overview

This episode dives deep into the Democratic Party’s current state, with a focus on the powerful undercurrents shaping the 2025 political landscape. Host Ryan Graduski and veteran Democratic politico Dan Turdine analyze how Donald Trump continues to shape Democratic messaging, the energetic ascent of the party’s left wing, and looming generational and ideological inflection points. Blending electoral numbers, candid anecdotes, and sharp policy critiques, the discussion examines what’s working, what’s stalling, and the uncertain road ahead for Democrats—especially as figures like AOC and new progressive voices gain traction.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Debunking the “Slavery Made America Wealthy” Narrative

[03:00 – 07:20]

• Study Cited: Research from Columbia, Dartmouth, and Yale concludes that slavery did not enrich America, but actually kept the South poor.
• Key Figures:
  • Enslaved workers’ productivity was lower than free workers; owning slaves was expensive (“slavery distorted markets”).
  • Emancipation led to a 9.1% rise in aggregate GDP, largely due to increased manufacturing and services.
• Quote:

  “The left says that slavery made America rich. No, capitalism made America rich. A Protestant work ethic made America rich. Property rights made America rich.”
  — Ryan Graduski [06:34]

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2. The Upcoming Elections and Swing State Dynamics

[07:20 – 15:15]

• Virginia Attorney General race: Republican Jason Meares leads 6 out of 8 polls over Democrat Jay Jones.
• Lieutenant Governor race: Closer than expected; Republican John Reed only five points down.
• New Jersey Governor’s race:
  • Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s lead narrows; Republican Jack Ciattarelli gains momentum (endorsements, mail-in ballot returns).
  • Despite gains, huge Democratic registration advantage persists.
• Core Democratic Strategy:
  • Democrats make Trump “the whole show,” even in local races and primaries outside his direct involvement.
• Older Voter Dynamics:
  • Enthusiasm at anti-Trump events skews much older, hinting at a generational disconnect.

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3. Trump’s Shadow Over the Democratic Party

[19:14 – 23:41]

• Democratic Identity:
  • Trump, as antagonist, has defined Democratic unity for nearly a decade.
• Quote:

  “Trump is like crack cocaine for their party and...they can't get enough. Resisting Trump has defined the Democratic Party.”
  — [paraphrased from Celinda Lake and Ryan Graduski, 14:06, 20:17]

• Democrats’ Challenge:
  • Despite public trust on key issues (health care, abortion), the party often pivots to anti-Trump messaging at the expense of proactive vision.
• Dan Turdine:

  “In my lifetime… I don't think any politician has started a movement and 10 years on been more powerful with the movement… than when it started. Usually, like Obama in ‘08, after a year or less of governing, it gets messy. It starts to kind of come apart at the seams. Why is [Trump] so successful?”
  — [20:08]

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4. Policy Paralysis and “Base Politics”

[22:06 – 27:52]

• Democratic Fear:
  • Deference to base opinion and risk aversion on hot-button issues (e.g., crime, immigration, trans rights).
• Missed Opportunities:
  • Reluctance to propose disruptive policies; often “abdicate the playing field” on tough topics.
• Quote:

  “Something is preferred to nothing. That's where Trump so often…even if people squirm at his tactics…he's doing something.”
  — Dan Turdine [22:47]

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5. The Changing Democratic Coalition and Leadership Vacuum

[27:52 – 35:55]

• Need for Disruption:
  • Both hosts argue the Democrats lack “80/20” issues where they’re clearly with the public, unlike Republicans in the Trump era.
  • Caution and adherence to the status quo seen as electoral risks.
• Gen. observations:
  • “Winning candidates for president usually have as a part of their opening message: ‘Here's where my party’s wrong.’” — Dan Turdine [27:52]
• Lack of National Breakout Leaders:
  • While some governors and former heavyweights (Whitmer, Shapiro, Rahm Emanuel) are cited, there is a vacuum for next-gen national leadership.

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6. Cuomo, Party Establishment, and the Progressive Surge

[30:15 – 39:44]

• Andrew Cuomo’s Fade:
  • Once feared, Cuomo’s inept Mayoral campaign exposes his limitations, paving way for insurgent socialists like Mandani.
• Surge of Progressive Candidates:
  • The left (AOC, Mandani, Sanders) has the base’s energy, fundraising prowess, and “intellectual heart.”
• AOC & Presidential Politics:
  • Speculation that AOC is likely a top-tier contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in the near future.
  • Quote:

    “If I had to bet, AOC would start with 25% of the vote... She’s the intellectual kind of heart of the base right now.” — Dan Turdine [36:07]

• Open Question:
  • Will the Democrats “flirt and then sober up” (like with Howard Dean, Sanders, Warren), or will a true leftist standard-bearer finally break through, as Trump did for the GOP?

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7. Internal Party Battles and the Pelosi Succession

[38:30 – 40:43]

• Primary Battles:
  • Party “needs this fight”—open primaries rather than leadership squelching debate.
• AOC’s Crossroads:
  • Will she stay as an “inside player” (House leadership) or seize the moment for a run at the presidency?
• Pelosi Departure:
  • Widespread rumors about Nancy Pelosi stepping down, provoking a San Francisco melee for her coveted seat.

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8. The Changing Party Base and Obama Coalition’s Weakness

[41:30 – 43:21]

• Erosion of Obama Coalition:
  • Dems now heavily white-collar, urban/suburban, have lost blue-collar and minority men.
  • Increasing struggle to hold onto Black and Latino men, and young voters.
• Quote:

  “We've really become white collar services in urban centers and suburban collars… Trump is making further inroads into blue areas, and we're getting further away from red areas.”
  — Dan Turdine [42:06]

• Need for a New Coalition:
  • Consensus that the Obama “rainbow” is not coming back; Dems must reimagine their base.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Trump is like crack cocaine for their party and...they can't get enough.”
  [14:06]
• “Winning candidates for president usually have as a part of their opening message: ‘Here's where my party’s wrong.’” — Dan Turdine [27:52]
• “If I had to bet, AOC would start with 25% of the vote... She’s the intellectual kind of heart of the base right now.” — Dan Turdine [36:07]
• “MEATHEAD is a senior citizen. That’s older voters now… Archie Bunker is dead.” — Ryan Graduski [41:32]
• “Obama coalition contributed to our erosion with the white working class… without an incredibly talented, unique person like Barack Obama was, it was not really sustainable.” — Dan Turdine [42:27]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Slavery and Wealth Myth: 03:00 – 07:20
• Election Overview and Democratic Strategy: 07:20 – 15:15
• Trump’s Dominance Over Dems: 19:14 – 23:41
• Policy Paralysis & Base Issues: 22:06 – 27:52
• Cuomo, Progressives Ascendant, AOC’s Prospects: 30:15 – 39:10
• Party Future, Pelosi, and Coalition Math: 38:30 – 43:21

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Tone and Language Highlights

• Candid, opinionated, numbers-centric: Graduski and Turdine are blunt in assessment and sometimes wry in humor, mixing data with campaign war stories.
• Critical of Democratic caution: Willing to name-check leadership failures and missed opportunities.
• Measured hope for open debate: Despite cynicism, both urge the party to “have the fight.”

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Useful for Non-Listeners

This episode serves as a sharp-witted, well-informed snapshot of where the Democratic Party stands just before a pivotal election. It provides granular polling insight, context behind headline races, and addresses big questions: What (and who) will Democrats be when Trump is truly gone? Are new left-leaning standard bearers ready to break into the mainstream? Why is the coalition that elected Obama disintegrating? For Democratic strategists, political junkies, and casual observers, this episode is an unusually honest, numbers-driven map of the evolving American political battlefield.

Transcript

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game podcast with Ryan Graduski. Thank you all for being here. Again, we are less than two weeks away from the election. Make a plan to vote. Local elections matter. I guarantee you there's a local election that you might not even know about coming up. So figure out who's running, who you're going to support, and get out and vote. Make your voice be heard. I have a few few stories that I want to cover today. First, this story flew under the radar from the mainstream media. I actually didn't see any almost anyone cover it. And it's not super important, but it flies in the face of an old narrative that is very commonly regurgitated without any thought, without anyone even thinking about it, and that it's Slavery made America Wealthy. Now, first and foremost, you know everything I think. I don't think I need to say this, but I'm going to say this. First of all, I'm not praising or condoning or belittling the experience of slavery. You know, I wish we never had slaves in this country. However, that statement that slavery made America rich simply isn't true. And not only did it not make America rich, but it kept the south poor. That's according to a new study from researchers from Columbia, Dartmouth and Yale Universities. Their names are Trev Allen, Winston Chen, and Suresh Naidu. I guarantee you I mispronounced the last name, but I tried Suresh. Their study explored what the antebellum American economy would have looked like without slavery. It says, quote combining theory and data, we then quantify how dismantling the institution of slavery affected the spatial economy. We find that the economic impacts of emancipation are substantially generating welfare gains for enslaved of roughly 1,200% while reducing welfare for free workers by.07% and eliminating slave holder profit. Aggregated GDP rises by 9.1% with a contraction in agricultural productivity counteracted by an expansion in manufacturing and services driven by an exodus of former enslaved workers out of agriculture and into the US North. All right, remember that at the time of the Civil War, products made from slaves made about 12.6% of our GDP. But slaves had a lower level of productivity than free men because capitalism is what drives people to work hard. Cotton specifically, which is, you know what? We kind of align the idea of what slaves in American south did cotton specifically was only 5% of our GDP. And according to a study from the Chicago Booth Review, slavery distorted markets. Enslaved workers earned about $100 a year market wage, but produce only $60 per net for owners due to coercion costs. Emancipation's efficiency gains equated to 4% on a low estimate to 35% on a high estimate of GDP. Slavery was very expensive to own a slave. They didn't work as hard as free people because they didn't have the drive and the motivation of making more money. And agriculture was definitely a lower level of wealth generation than than manufacturing and service industries and other things that the American north was doing. The north was far more prosperous than the south because they had moved away from an agrarian society into an industrialized society. The slaveries slowed the South's development, making slave states poorer per capita than free states by 1860. The left says that slavery made America rich. No, capitalism made America rich. A Protestant work ethic made America rich. Property rights made America rich. I think that the fact that these Ivy League universities are willing to put up this study, I don't think they would have put this study necessarily in 2020, but they were willing to put up the study. Something that you're not going to hear from a lot of other podcasts and a lot of other media outlets really flies in the face of the left's narrative. Slavery didn't make America rich, and in fact it made the south poor. I just think that's interesting. You know, I don't talk a lot about history on this podcast, but I found that study very, very fascinating. I put it in my subs on the National Populist newsletter from last week. But I, I thought I had to share with you guys. Okay, let's talk about the upcoming elections. They're coming up close. I know that made this a big election podcast, talking about it almost every episode. But, you know, this is what, this is what the news are. This is what was going to also forecast how people perceive the midterms. People perceive the strength and weakness of President Trump and his coalition. There have been a flurry of polls in Virginia, especially focused on the Attorney General general's race. Since October 8, there have been eight polls on the Virginia AG race, and Republican Jason Mearez is beating Democrat Jay Jones in six of the eight polls. The outlier are an internal poll from the Democratic Attorney General's association, which has Mieres and Jones tied, and then a poll from a young guy named Chaz Nutty com, who follows a lot of Virginia politics He's very smart, but he's more liberal than he cares to admit. He. He has Jones winning by five points. Now, I want to be fair and state that a lot of the other polls that have MIAR as Republican winning are also from Republican life firms. Not all of them, but quite a few. When you aggregate all the polls together, those eight polls, the race is still tight, but Mieres leads Jones 47 to 45 points. Frankly, for a guy who texted that he dreamed of murdering his political opponents and seeing their children die, I think that's too close for comfort. But it is the state of the country today. A big question is how well does Lt. Governor win some Sears the Republican perform if she has, if she has a tremendous loss, right? Like she's a team point loss, which is what the Chaz Nutty Comb poll says. It's gonna be hard for Meares. Like he's got to really have a lot of people willing to cast a ballot when they're going to vote for the Democrat or willing to just skip the line overall after voting for wins, after voting for Abigail Spamberger, the Democrat. That's, that's asking for a lot. When you aggregate all the polls together, Spamberger has an eight point lead, 51 to 43. That's the most really that I think Miaras can afford her to lose by. A lot of it matters at the top of the ticket as far as making sure Republicans have a strong turnout and, you know, wins here has a lot of weight to carry. Anyone running at the top of the ticket has a lot of weight to carry for the rest of the party. And it's concerning the race for lieutenant governor, which is not really being paid attention to. It's very close. It's much closer than the race for governor. Overall, Republican John Reed is down by just five points against the Democrat Gazala Hashmi, 48 to 43 in those polls. But that's much closer than the other polls. He's doing decently well. It's a race that literally no one is paying attention to. Over in New Jersey, only one new poll has come out recently and it showed Democrat Mikey Sheryl ahead by five points. It was conducted by Ruckers University. The last time the university did the poll, it was a much larger lead for the Democrats. So once again, momentum, and the momentum has always gone to Jack Ciatarelli, the Republican. I mean, he really has. He's earned Democrat endorsements, he's earned union endorsements. He's been campaigning all over the state. Kelsey Grammer just cut an ad for him. And Republicans have been ahead of Democrats on returning their mail invalid much longer than they were in 2024, 2021 rather. And he earned a huge endorsement from the Orthodox Jewish community that endorsed Governor Phil Murphy last time and the 2021 race when Chitterelli was running last time. So he has had a lot of things break in his favor. It's just the fundamentals of the state, even though the state is moving to the right. Mikey Sherrell goes into this election with 854,000 more registered Democrats than Cittarelli has Republicans. And she's been running a lackluster campaign across the board. But that may be enough to save her. It may just be that the state is still blue enough, although it's not as blue as it used to be, that, you know, it's enough. And also, a lot of the people who voted for Trump for the first time last time in places like Passaic county, they're not guaranteed voters. They're lower propensity voters. So they have to show up, which is a big gamble. Who knows? It's interesting that most Democrats, from Gavin Newsom in California, who's trying to redraw the districts of his state to Mikey Sherrill in New Jersey, to even Jay Jones, who's running for attorney general of Virginia, they've made this election about one thing more than anything else, and that is Donald Trump. Even, even California State Senator Scott Weiner, he's primary Nancy Pelosi for the seat in San Francisco. His opening announcement is all about Donald Trump. Trump's Trump is the whole show for the Democrats running for office this year. And we are, you know, we're a decade into Trump's political career, and it's a decade where the walls have closed on him more times than I can count. Yet he persists, you know, and Democrats who have an abundance of young talent, they have the trust of the American people on issues like health care and abortion. They can't seem to talk about really anything else besides the president. And this is of interest to me and slightly of concern. Where is the party going? Celinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster, told the New York Times over the weekend that she fears that Trump is like crack cocaine for their party and that they can't get enough. And if you watch the no Kings protest, you saw the people that were overwhelmingly in that crowd, in those crowds. They were much older even, I think NBC News, the local Boston affiliate, was commenting about how old the crowd was. This is MSNBC watchers. This is CNN watchers. These are people who have a paranoid fear of Trump being a dictator and ending democracy. And they're the ones who vote very, very frequently. But we are at a place now where Donald Trump's political career, whether you love him or hate him, is more behind us than it is in front of us. And we're going to wake up in 2026 and find the Democrats 2026, 2028. Rather, we're going to find the Democratic Party in a much different place than when it started in 2015. Because as much as Trump has defined the Republican Party, resisting Trump has defined the Democratic Party. And they haven't done a good job at establishing new talent that can run on a national level since Obama. I mean, there is, since he said, you know, there's no red state America or blue state America, that iconic Obama speech. There is, you know, the Democratic Party nominated Hillary in 2016, nominated Biden in 2020, and Biden 2024, slash Kamala Harris without a primary. That's a very long time of new talent. And Obama, by the way, in 2012 there was no primary. There hasn't been a time in Democratic politics for new talent to really see that they could rise to the top. You know, really in two decades. You could argue in 2020 there was a lot of people like people to judge who made an attempt to do it. Well, I mean, I don't know if any of this will really have a career going forward, but it's been two decades since like a thoughtful, ambitious and multi level fielded race took place. And a lot of the leaders of the Democratic Party are either old news, they're oxarians like Bernie Sanders, or they're to, you know, Zoram Mandani, left. And it begs the question of who will lead the party when the conversation is no longer about Trump and what will the party talk about? Who will the party speak to? Is it just going to be those voters at the no King rally? Because those voters are not representative of the American people as a whole. So where is the Democratic Party and who is going to lead it without Trump? What are they going to talk about without Trump? That's coming up next.

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[Ryan Graduski]

My guest on today's episode is my favorite host on two way. Dan Turdine hosts the morning meeting and the group chat. He's a veteran Democrat politico. Dan, thank you for being here.

[Dan Turdine]

Ryan, thank you so much for having me. It's great to be on.

[Ryan Graduski]

You're my favorite host because you show up, you look the part, you want the job, like you're there every day. You know, Sean's got the sun in his face. He just like Mark looks like he came from golfing. You don't know like Sean's like walking half the time you're actually fully there. And I'm like, Dan is the man who showed up for work and I always appreciate that.

[Dan Turdine]

Thank you.

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[Dan Turdine]

I try.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, Dan. So Democrats are looking pretty good ahead of the upcoming elections. In two weeks, they're likely to retain the New York mayor's race, redraw the map in California, pick up the governor's election in Virginia by a pretty good margin, and then they have a healthy but not outstanding lead in the New Jersey governor's race. And yet at the same time in the New York Times wrote about this, the main focus for all these politicians is Donald Trump. How much has Donald Trump as much as defined the Republican Party? How much has he defined the Democratic Party?

[Dan Turdine]

100% for the last 10 years. I mean, go back to Hillary Clinton in 2016, at the end of that election when she really was just trying to disqualify him as much as she was trying to pump herself up. And ever since then, the focus has been on this kind of idea that it's a fever dream, that if we just scream hard enough, find the next indictment, the next wrongdoing, the next inappropriate comment, or, you know, meme on X that the voters will say, my gosh, we made such a horrendous mistake. We can't believe we did this. Even the no Kings rally, it is still to this day, this idea of an obsession with the man, his character, his conduct, what has just never happened, really. And still, much to my frustration in others, the party really has never stepped back and said, why is he so popular? Why has he won? Why is it Ryan, in my lifetime and I love politics, you can see the books behind me I don't think any politician that I know of has started a movement and 10 years on been more powerful with the movement, the size of the movement, than when it started. Usually like Obama in 08, after a year or less of governing, it gets messy. It starts to kind of come apart at the seams. Why is he so successful and that just instead it's just be a little louder and a little harsher and a little nastier and all will end.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. And it's also the fact is the no Kings rally, I mean, it wasn't all old people, but it was a lot of senior citizens at this rally. And it's a lot of people who have, have almost a generational psychosis from watching MSNBC and CNN non stop, who have been told this is a dictator, this is Hitler, this man's evil, yada, yada yada. And the, the, the tragic part for the Democratic Party is that on several, it's not, not every issue, but on a bunch of issues, they are way more trusted than Republicans. Health care, abortion, you know, a number of things like that. And it's kind of all gone by the wayside. Is anyone, is there any like thought leader within the Democratic Party who's really got their finger on the pulse of new ideas and policies that are going to be, you know, advantageous for the average working class American?

[Dan Turdine]

You know, the sad thing is there are, there are factions within the House and the Senate. There are people thinking about running for 2028. The problem is there is still this fear of both being canceled on social issues and offending the base on the kind of broader substantive issues. And the ultimate example, Ryan, is crime. Right? When Trump sent in the National Guard, the first response was, well, crime isn't that bad, which was insanity to try to argue that away. What Trump proposed is a short term solution, right? The National Guard cannot stay everywhere forever. At some point you have to kind of manage your own house rather than saying, okay, we're going to challenge you now. How about another hundred thousand new police officers nationwide? How about, you know, pumping up the budgets and let's redo bail laws, which, by the way, you know, we're still paying the price for. But they just said, no, there's no problem, there's nothing to see. Like we just abdicated the playing field and something is preferred to nothing. And I think that is where Trump so often, not only is he on the right side of issues, but even where people kind of squirm at his tactics and kind of, he goes full throttle, it's like, he's doing something on immigration, he's doing something on crime, he's doing something on free trade, he's doing something to try to end the war in Ukraine. And all we do is sit there and attack the man and the process and wave it away. And voters say, I won't even listen to anything you have to say anymore.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. And you saw, I don't know if you saw it, but there was. There's a candidate running for U.S. senate in Michigan named Haley Stevens.

[Dan Turdine]

Oh, yeah.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, yeah, she wrote an article, I think two years ago saying sending the National Guard to the cities and her having to try to back. She's running one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen. Politics. She did an event recently, I think two people showed up and one was her tracker. So, I mean, that's, I've been on, I've been on a lot of campaign events which are rough. That is rough. But yeah. So, like, who would you say are like thought leaders that are like, okay, this person's having interesting conversation on tech, which is, you know, a huge part of our future is AI. It's like completely. We're sleeping on it. You know what I mean? Or like other things. Who are some people you could point to say, this is a person who's having a thoughtful conversation whose name does not rhyme with Bernie Sanders.

[Dan Turdine]

Yeah. Well, I was going to say first off, the thought leadership energy is with the Bernie Sanders AOC wing and Mandani, which is a problem I think I'm sure we'll get to at some point here. The one who I think not only is putting the thought into, but is beginning to actually publicly start getting into this is Rahm Emanuel. I think Rahm, you know, he's got his warts, he's got his problems within the party and different factions. But Rahm is beginning to go out there and listen to people understand their frustrations. And he's written a little bit about kind of on cultural issues where we were wrong. He said it. Now he, you know, the fact that he has to then self deprecatingly say, I'm gonna go into the witness protection program, tells you where, you know, he knows he's in, he's in the deep end of the pool. But Rahm is. I actually think people like Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro are doing it or they're going to do it with a show, not kind of tell meaning they're gonna say, look at what I've done in our states. Right. I worked with Trump to protect the Great Lakes or Shapiro. Hey, look, I got a bunch of Republicans to vote for me because I don't criticize them. I'm willing to work with them and say where they're right. So there are. But generally speaking, a lot of people are very, very cautious because they look around and you got people like JB Pritzker and others who are saying, we have nothing to apologize for. Right. Again, we need to be louder. We need to be more direct. Right. And just go right at Trump. And I, to me, I believe that what will ultimately is it has been for 10 years, is a losing proposition.

[Ryan Graduski]

You know, it's so funny, is I. Because I still consult on campaigns. I'm doing a statewide race right now, and I've done, I don't know, a million at this point. And like, I've told people, you know, I even told JD when, when, before I started working on the super PAC for his Senate race. Like, the lesson to take away from Trump from his 2016 campaign is not to be, you know, boisterous on social media, for lack of a better word, but to challenge party orthodoxy when it's unpopular. Like Trump on abortion, Trump on Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security. He basically took the entire Paul Ryan platform and smashed into little bits because no one, no one liked it.

[Dan Turdine]

No.

[Ryan Graduski]

And no one. Like, I didn't vote for Mitt Romney because Paul Ryan was on the ticket. And I thought that he was like a joke. Like, there is. There is unpopular. Not. Not that everything Trump says is popular, but there's really unpopular, rigid ideology parts of both parties. And the Democrats, you know, even like on the trans issue, which is not the most important issue, as Winston Sears is going to experience in two weeks. It is. It is a very much an 8020 issue that they are still not knowing what to sit there and say. It reminds me in 2016 of when I forget who was running. Some woman was running for president, the Republican ticket, the woman from California, and they asked for a gay marriage. She's like, I'm for civil unions. I'm like, you are a decade behind where the conversation is going, Carly Fiorina, because you're so nervous that you, like, you are not willing to just go out there and go where the public is. I feel like Democrats like that were a lot of things. Crime, immigration, yada, yada, yada. Trans stuff. What do you think?

[Dan Turdine]

Yeah, I mean, winning candidates for president usually have as a part of their opening message, here's where my party's wrong. Right. So Bill Clinton challenging the party on, ironically, crime on trade. Right. On. On the economy. Donald Trump challenged it on immigration at the time. Right. The Wall Street Journal, everyone. Marco Rubio was all about, you know, the pathway to citizenship. He said, here's where you're wrong on free trade, the forever wars. I remember when Trump went into South Carolina and said the Iraq war was stupid. And everyone was like, aha, that's it. He's going down. And, you know, he wins 70% of the vote. Our party, there's two things we don't have other than maybe healthcare and abortion. Any 80, 20 issues that are on our side where we say we, you know, the public is with us. Republicans are really on a back foot. Foot and are backpedaling. Where has our. Challenging the status quo. I know people are talking about education, maybe. Okay. I'm curious. It's a complicated issue. It's a big issue. Like, what facet are you going to pick? But I agree with you, the party has got to pick some issues and disrupt right now because we're so against Trump. Ryan, we have become on issue after issue, defending the status quo, the issue and the process. Right? Hey, you can't do this. You can't change this. Things aren't that bad. On issue after issue is kind of what the party argues when worldwide, the public wants change. They're not. I mean, Mandani personifies that.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right.

[Dan Turdine]

In our party now, we want change. Primaries of older candidates, we want change. Blowing up the filibuster, changing rules. The base wants change, as is the Republican Party. It's just because they're so afraid of our base. No one is willing to get out there and lead. And I always say this. Trump's secret sauce is substance, as you say, he challenged the status quo unapologetically and with full force. And that's ultimately what made people say, I'm gonna go wait in line for the guy for 10 hours in the rain in the Berkshires in 2015.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. You know, it's so crazy. I keep telling Republicans, like, guys, electricity prices are the new populous issue. Talk about data centers. It's so important. They're just missing the boat. Can we just talk about Cuomo for a second?

[Dan Turdine]

Sure.

[Ryan Graduski]

Was he always a terrible candidate and we just didn't notice because he was always. He was anointed into his AG seat and then anointed into the governor's mansion and was in a blue, super blue state and only Cynthia Nixon challenged him and she didn't. She. She had a great campaign ads, but she was an insufferable personality. So like is, was he always just bad or did he just. Doesn't. Doesn't. Was he expect to be anointed again?

[Dan Turdine]

You know, so funny you say this because I asked something very similar in that I watched as part of my job the entire debate the other night and I could not believe how terrible Andrew Cuomo was.

[Ryan Graduski]

Horrible.

[Dan Turdine]

You know what, what, what I know or knew of Andrew Cuomo was this feared politician who carries brass knuckles, destroys his opponent, is ruthless, wins at all cost, is known to be very quick on his feet and good with a quip. And I saw a guy that was rambling, rigid, had the fact that Mandani had all these slick answers and retorts and Cuomo walked in to set attacks against himself. You know, when, when he tried to use.

[Ryan Graduski]

He couldn't answer on Covid.

[Dan Turdine]

No.

[Ryan Graduski]

Which like.

[Dan Turdine]

And look, he was attacked once again on visiting a mosque, which was a huge thing back in his primary and he still had not rectified it. And you know, you had to know it was coming. What happened was, and I was asked this earlier today, how come, how do we get to having Mandani and Cuomo to choose and obviously Curtis Lewa, you go back a year and Cuomo led by about 30 to 40 points and most Democrats said, okay, I'm not running into that buzz saw. I actually had a candidate reach out to me and ask to meet. We sat down on a Saturday for about two hours and he wanted to talk about running. And what did I think, et cetera. And one of my first questions was, are you willing to take on Andrew Cuomo? Right. He's going to do whatever he has to do. If you rise, if you're successful, that's good. The bad news is you're on his radar. And here comes the heat seeking missiles. He ran everybody out, but you know, he won the war before a shot was fired. People just didn't realize how terrible he was going to be actually running for mayor on this kind of Rose Garden strategy of don't really talk to the press, have like, you know, three or four things, crime and education. And Mandani just had a finger on the pulse and went out and hustled. If people knew that the frontrunner was going to be a 33 year old socialist. I mean, the number of people who would have run, members of Congress, you know, wealthy people, business people, but you know, it's like in 92, the number of Democrats who are like, but it's going to be Bill Clinton. I want to run.

[Ryan Graduski]

No, it's so true. And, you know, a former New York Yankee from, like, the Dynasty era reached out to me about running as a Republican, and I just said, listen, Curtis has been hitting the pavement for seven. For five straight years now. Like, it's going to be tough, but then. And then if you beat him, you got Andrew Cuomo and he's just going to be our next mayor. I don't, like. I don't know how to tell you. And I discovered person from running, I'm like, cuomo is going to be impossible to beat. I mean, I am dumbfounded. Just dumbfounded how, like, you know, you could. I do not like how he handled Covid at all. And he did things that were, I think, vindictive towards the end about keeping things closer too long. However, I was a New York resident when it happened, and people looked for leadership and the whole country looked at him. And he took a lot of words from Fauci and he. He stood in a time of crisis, and right or wrong, he could sit there and say, I was a leader when the country needed me and I made mistakes, but I did the best I could. And he couldn't answer that. I was. I could write a better answer. I disagree with you. And, like, I can't believe how little energy there is. It's this strange dichotomy you're seeing in the Democratic Party as a whole, and it's nationwide. It's Abigail Spangberger in Virginia and Mikey Sherrill in New Jersey. They represent a lot of what Democrats traditionally went on, right. Upper middle class to wealthy women who, even though they're of the left, they appear something that moderates can, you know, like and take and look responsible and sound smart. And then you have zoron and military.

[Dan Turdine]

Service with both of them. Right, right.

[Ryan Graduski]

No, there's. There. There if. Credentials behind them. They've got money behind them. There's ever that. They are. If you said to me, draw a picture of what a Democrat would want to run with, I would draw Abigail Spam, because, like, it is what they would like. It's like looking at a young Hillary Clinton to a certain degree that she. Yeah, I mean, she is.

[Dan Turdine]

Yeah, yeah, I like that.

[Ryan Graduski]

I had clearly gonna run for president one day. And I mean, you can tell. You could see the entire arc right there. Um, the thing about that that's interesting, though, is, is that towards the end of the campaign, Spamberger is doing fine, but she's not as strong as she was a couple of months ago. Agreed. And Mikey, Sheryl has struggled throughout the Whole campaign, like, she still has not gotten minorities to vote for her. Their vote, their return on the mail in ballots is 10% lower than whites. She lost the Jewish support. That was the. For Governor Murphy. She's had. She's, she's lost a number of Democratic defections in Hudson county, which is a very Democratic county that are supporting Citarelli. Zoran at the same time, is only gaining ground as time has gone on. And I talked to a Democrat consultant on this podcast a couple months ago and he said to me, it's not a question of if a socialist will be the Democratic nominee for president, it's just a question of when do you come to that same opinion for, for.

[Dan Turdine]

President, you're saying, or Pres.

[Ryan Graduski]

The Dominique for president?

[Dan Turdine]

Yeah, I, I, I think it is likely, yes, in the short run. And, and I think the ultimate example of this is aoc, because I, I don't see how she does not run. Mark Halford and I go back and forth about this. He's like, no way. No, she's not serious. She's not a top tier candidate. I'm like, she's got the energy. She's of the, of the base. She's the intellectual kind of heart of the base right now. She can have no problem raising money. So I think when you look at someone like Mandani, you look at someone like aoc, you know, Bernie Sanders being another example. They're getting closer, right? Like Sanders bare, you know, almost got it in 16, less so in 20. But right now, if I had to bet, AOC would start with 25% of the vote. I mean, she and Gavin Newsom will be the two, the two frontrunners. You have a debate. My bet is she knocks him out more than he, you know, more likely than he would knock her out, because she's got the substance and she's got the energy of the base behind her. So I don't know, historically we back, you know, we flirt, but then we kind of sober up right before, you know, wedding day. Howard Dean didn't ultimately get there. The same thing with Sanders in 16, Sanders and Warren in 20. We just don't have a history of ultimately going through, but kind of like Republicans, you don't until you do, right? And then all of a sudden you get Trump and like, there it is. So it is possible. And look, I think some of these inner primary battles for the House, you're gonna see more socialists after Mandani likely wins. I'm going to be curious about Jeffries. The rumor here in New York is he is going to endorse Mandani. Probably Friday. Probably Friday afternoon. Late, late, late.

[Ryan Graduski]

But Mandani is not endorsing Hochul.

[Dan Turdine]

No. And the word is that Mandani's looking for someone to primary.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, there's that gay black councilman from Andre Choi or something like that.

[Dan Turdine]

Yeah. So, I mean, we need to have this. Like, as much as it's painful for me and as much as I roll my eyes at you know, parts of our party, we need this fight. We need to have primaries, we need to have debates and let everybody go at each other. I think we may ultimately the socialists may win. I think in the long run they'll lose, but we need to stop putting a lid on it and saying we can't do this.

[Ryan Graduski]

Now, there is this guy and I'm looking for his name and I can't, of course, as I just thought of this question now I'm blanking on his name. And he's an Indian gentleman. He was the thought leader, really behind aoc, and he is running against Nancy Pelosi.

[Dan Turdine]

Oh, yeah, yeah, I know. He was her chief of staff briefly.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, yeah, he was a chief of staff and he was the one. He was the leader behind the Green New Deal. I mean, he really thought of it and gave it to AOC and she ran with it. I'm going to remember it 10 minutes after we stopped talking. But his name. But anyway, do you think AOC endorses against Nancy Pelosi? Endorses her former chief of staff.

[Dan Turdine]

I think she'll wait to see if Pelosi announces she's going to step down. The word is here that she's going to do it right after the election. Someone I know close to her said when she leaves, she's going to go, meaning she'll announce on Monday that I'm out on Friday. She's not going to say why would she stay? Yeah, yeah. She's not going to say, I'm going to serve out the rest of this Congress and go out. So I don't know. I think it'll be a free for all reports are she wants to. She's leaning towards this. I think it's a Korean American woman in San Francisco who's a city councilwoman.

[Ryan Graduski]

Is kind of daughter wants to run.

[Dan Turdine]

Yeah, well, that's always been out there that she does. But this councilwoman apparently is who she may favor. It's going to be really interesting to see because aoc, I think, does face this.

[Ryan Graduski]

This.

[Dan Turdine]

This fork in the road which is she has in the last few years become more of an inside baseball player. She's kept her mouth kind of quiet about certain things where, you know, she defended Joe Biden really to the end, which is something people don't talk much about. She was very loyal, I think that was assigned to the, to the party. I say this because does she want to be Ted Kennedy, meaning a member of the House or the Senate, you know, leadership for 40 years and try to have all this legislation that kind of bends the arc on various issues, or does she say, sitting around here is a waste of my time? I'm going to go, this is my shot. Who knows? In five years, if I still have the energy and the base and everything, I'm going for president. And if I don't, I'm going to go get a contract on MSNBC and, you know, be a pundit.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, she's also a woman of a particular age where, like, if she wants to have children. Yeah, the window is shutting on it. She want. There's a personal aspect to all these politicians of like, do I want to have some. I mean, politics is a drug. You don't want to ever stop it. Once it's there. There's nothing like a campaign night, even though, you know, there's no adrenaline rush I've ever experienced. Like, but, you know, there's that aspect of, like, this is, does she want to have kids? Does she want to have a normal family in any capacity? My last question, because I know I'm trying to keep you over. So, like the. And in the last election, Democrats have really done very well with older voters. Older voters of when Bush was running. Those voters have passed away, most of them. And then the. I always say Archie Bunker is dead, but Meathead is a senior citizen. That's older voters now. Like, they've changed.

[Dan Turdine]

Great analogy. Yeah.

[Ryan Graduski]

So. But they struggle with low propensity voters. Minority men, people that are, were, Would, would nationally be part of the Obama coalition? Has anyone worked to rectify that? That?

[Dan Turdine]

You see, for some people that think the Obama coalition can back together, most people I talk to think we need a new coalition and that, I mean, you just take those tenants, right? Trump won. Young voters. We're struggling not only with black young men, Latinos, we've lost them just in general here. What is the new coalition? We've really become white collar services in the urban centers and kind of those tight suburban collars around a lot of areas is our base. And how do we kind of expand into other areas? Because on a macro level, Trump is making further inroads into blue areas, and we're getting further and further away from red areas. And so I think county is gonna.

[Ryan Graduski]

Be a swing county one day. Yeah.

[Dan Turdine]

I mean, trying to put the Obama coalition back together, I just don't. I think the Obama coalition contributed to our erosion with the white working class. It had started, you know, before, but this focus on young people, minorities, and then liberals. Right. The kind of wealthier people, that gap in between was not really sustainable without an incredibly talented, unique person like Barack Obama was. But even in 2012, as you know, he ground that thing out, I mean, there was no hope and joy. Those margins got much, much smaller. Like the trend lines were already beginning to move against him. And so I think we need a new coalition. And of course, part of this is, does the Trump coalition hold going forward for J.D. vance or whomever, or do some of these voters come back up for grabs?

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, no, that's a great question. And it's something that I think a lot of Republicans are looking at in the midterms because they're drawing maps right now that are dependent on a Trump coalition that if it flares out in any capacity, they might have drawn themselves into a dummy map.

[Dan Turdine]

Yeah, it's possible. Particularly in Texas. Yep.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. All right. Where can we go to read more of your stuff? I could talk to you all day long and I don't want to have to do it. I know. Where can people go to read you more? I love you on two Way, so you can give any of your plugs of social media to follow.

[Dan Turdine]

Yeah, no, two Way would be the best place. We are the morning meeting, which we are live from 9 to 10am Eastern, Monday through Friday. You can also it streams so you can catch it, you know, whenever is convenient for you. And then I do something called the group chat on Thursdays at 4 o' clock live again, also on two way, also streamed, so you can watch that too. Those are the two primary places. And then when given an invitation like you gave me, I'm always, always love to talk about this. I could do it.

[Ryan Graduski]

Thank you for answering my dm, my anonymous DM on Twitter.

[Dan Turdine]

Not anonymous whatsoever.

[Ryan Graduski]

Unsolicited. Unsolicited, yeah. Thank you so much for being here.

[Dan Turdine]

Thanks, Ryan. Thanks for having me.

[Ryan Graduski]

Hey, we'll be right back after this.

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[Ryan Graduski]

Okay, now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show. You guys love this. I love this. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryan@NumbersGame podcast.com that's Ryan. Numbers plural numbers game podcast.com I read every email and respond to every email. The first question comes from Russell King. He asks. He has many, many questions. So Russell, I'm going to get to the top three very quickly. He says, Is Dei dead on arrival starting in 2024? I think he meant 2025. But it has a lost cultural power and has it lost corporate power? DEI is not dead, but it's definitely very, very wounded, if not slowly dying. There are two main factors. Consider first its institutional practice itself of hiring and promoting individuals based almost exclusively on racial or other potential relevant identity markers, like being gay or trans or a woman. Then there's the other part of a broader cultural influence that policies like this generate. Parts of the American culture have been influenced by modern liberal politics for some time. Years ago there was this reference to a to this is like political correctness and then social justice. And then it was like wokeness. But using WOKE is now a descriptor of fading popularity. Right? If you're like, no one says that they're woke and it's a good thing. Woke is typically looked down upon. And a lot of corporations understand this and have moved away from a lot of WOKE stuff. Specifically, policies like DEI remain in the headlines, but among the general population they're definitely lower. Electing Donald Trump was a big part of that. Showed a broader cultural backlash against corporate a corporate behavior like this. And also like a lot of other policies, a lot of Democratic policies they championed. Trump had an also an executive order that changed. This is Executive Order 1415114151 that brought the termination of all activities relating to diversity, equity, inclusion and access by federal departments. Remember, there is nothing more lucrative on this planet than either a state or federal contract. So the promotion of ending DEI policies in federal contracting and in state contracting and some states have done this. Not, not all and not enough also was a use and a good reason to sit there and for corporations to drop it because they want a federal contract. It's guaranteed check year in and year out, month in and month out. So I think it's definitely wounded. And I think one of the telltale signs that you could sit there and see is that companies are hiring white men for their corporate boards at the fastest rate in years. That wouldn't happen if DEI was surging and if it was not, you know, in the throes of a very, very painful exit. We'll see if things change if in three years of time. But Trump's only one term into his year, so there's three more year of this practice. I would doubt to see it increases over the next three years. Next question comes from Jason, who asks if Mandani can win the New York mail race in the first round of ranked choice voting. Thankfully, Jason, that unlike Maine and Alaska, New York City does not have ranked choice voting in the general election. So it's whoever gets a plurality. So if he gets 40% and the next person gets 39, he still wins. They don't have to go to ranked choice voting. I'm sure that Cuomo would have loved ranked choice voting in a general election and hated it in a primary. It would have benefited him, but there is none in the general. So Mandani just needs to get the most raw votes on election day and he's the next mayor. Last question comes from Patrick. He writes, hey Ryan, what is your most controversial true crime hot take? Also thoughts on the new Ed Gaines show and the rest of the Ryan Murphy Monster series. Dahmer Menendez Brothers Season 4 is reported about Lizzie Borden. What true crime story would you like to see portrayed in season five? A hot take is I'm going to say the hot take on the way that the media covers true crime. I think that one because consumers of true crime tend to are a lot of Gen Xers, a lot of baby boomers. I think we overly focus on crimes in the 1970s and 80s. I think that true crime of the season 2000s and serial kills 19 thousands are covered a lot less than you know, I think the more famous serial killers of that time. That's why a lot of these people, I mean the Menendez brothers were from the 80s or early 90s but are the exception and until Ryan Murphy did the documentary, not a lot of people covered them because they just murdered their parents. They didn't go on other killing sprees. But like the Ted Bundy's of the world and the Jeffrey Dahmers of the world who are, you know, every, every true crime podcast talks about millions of books are being sold and, and about these topics. I think that, I think that that's why we're really. We're really consumed with that generation. Also, I don't think there's an attention paid to black serial killers. I think that we should do more shows about them. On the Murphy Monster series, I have seen the Dahmer one. I thought it was really well made. It was very good. It wasn't overly gory, which was good. The Menendez brother was a really gory murder scene and really, really hard to watch. Rape scene. So I didn't enjoy watching it because it was so gruesome. Although Chloe Savign is brilliant as the mom. She's a really good actress. Okay, which ones would I like to make? If I could make a. Not a horror, but a true crime serial killer movie, it would be about either the Candyman Killer, which is Dean Correll. He was a killer from the 70s. Although I said we take too much emphasis on the 70s. His story is fascinating. He killed lots of young men in Houston when Houston was becoming a budding metro metropolis. And basically it's so insane because there was so many new people in the city that the police would not. Didn't have the capacity to actually cover a lot of crimes. And back in those days, especially, I guess, in Texas, back in those days, it was not uncommon for young boys to be runaways. And he would. Ed Gaines would either have them before they were murdered or he themselves would write letters to their parents saying, I'm gonna go work on the train tracks. I'm gonna send my money home in a couple of weeks. So some parents weren't even looking for them. And he didn't even. Wasn't even a suspect at the time that he was murdered by one of his soon to be victims. It was only because the two young men who are still alive and in prison, the only reason he had two young male accomplices who would lure these young men into his apartment where he did these horrific acts of. Of torture and murder to them. He tried to rape and murder them and they turned and killed him. And at the time of his murder, they weren't even looking for him. They didn't have a suspect. They did not know that there was this terrible serial killer active in Houston. He preyed on poor boys whose parents didn't have the, I guess, political capital or weren't considered a priority of the police that. That few police that could investigate because the police were so overwhelmed. It's a horrific story. It's a fascinating story. It's fascinating because they weren't looking for him. And he also had A girlfriend, but he was gay. That whole aspect I think is interesting. And the fact that his two accomplices are still alive. They are serving life in prison, even though they only murdered Ed Gaines himself. But they were accomplices. But I think they were minors when they were accomplices for most part of it. It's a fascinating story. Would love that to be a story. And then the other one is on the Zebra Killers. They were a black nationalist gang in San Francisco. Once again, the 1970s. I know I just said we shouldn't talk about the 70s so much, but that was this black. The black nationals who targeted and murdered white people, which happened not like every day, but there were gangs of black nationals who did target to murder white people. And it's never been covered. And how the police handled it was insane because they would give black residents of San Francisco a card every day and they had to get the card. It's called a zebra card. And they would be patted down for guns. And if they didn't have any, then they got their card, like, stamped that day and they were allowed to roam free. They could just go back to their house and get the gun it made. It literally was the most insane police work in the world. And then I think they caught one and he ratted everybody out. But it's a great, interesting story on policing that I find super fascinating. If you want to hear about a story that is more recent, there was a book by. By Callahan, who she's a host on the Megyn Kelly Network. Maureen Callahan. She wrote a book about Israel Keys. He was like, one of the only murderers of the 21st century serial murders. 21st century. Great book. Interesting, fascinating book. And Israel Keys murdered tons of people. Was born in a cult. So he had, like, no id. He was not in any kind of program. No, like DNA program for like 23andMe. Because his whole family lived on a cult. He was a monster. And it was a super interesting story into the mind of a truly sociopathic serial killer. Anyway, I know that's not the best happy way to end a story about serial killing, but I do love true crime. I would love to do maybe an episode on true crime one day. But yeah, those are my ones. I would like to do Ed Gaines, Israel Keys, and Dean Carell, the Candyman Killer. If anyone has a say with Ryan Murphy, pitch those ideas to him. Anyway, thank you for listening this episode of the podcast. Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, wherever you listen to your podcast and I will see you guys on Monday.

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