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Ryan Gradosky
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Ryan Gradosky
O.Com welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gradosky. Happy to have you all here on this Thursday episode of the show. We are approaching or we are not approaching. We are in the month of May. It is approaching high school graduations, May and June, depending on what state you live in. And the class of 2025 is special because, and most probably don't know this, it is the largest group of 18 year olds in American history. There was the peak year to be born was 2007, which makes you about 18 now would make you 18 this year, which means you're probably graduating high school. So 4.32 million Americans were born the year 2007. Most have lived the 18, 17 years required to go to high school and, and graduate without moving every class afterwards. Every graduating class for the next two decades at least will be smaller than this one. This is the peak. How much smaller is a great question. In 2022, there were only 3.67 million people born in America. That's about 17% smaller than the class, than the, than the population born in 2007. The class of 2025, the class of 2040 will be 17% smaller than the class of 2025 just because people had fewer children. 2007 was also the last year that America had a birth rate of replacement level. To have a replacement level birth rate for society, you need 2.1 children per woman. That's the minimum amount, right? Because it's usually two. But not everyone makes it to adulthood. So it's 2.1. And there was a slight baby boom in 2006, 2007. And during this brief period, we had sustainable growth. If you want to go before then, though, the last time we had real sustainable growth. Real sustainable, you know, growth from just people having children, not from immigration. You have to go back to 1971, which is 16 years before I was born. America's had chronically low fertility rate and something to be concerned about because if you have too few children and the population shrinks over time, home values shrink, economy shrinks, schools closed, societies become sadder and more depressed. It's what's inflicting a lot of baby boomers now who are finding themselves that they're not grandparents, there's no grandchildren. Millennials, their millennial children who are in their mid to late 30s and early 40s, never had kids. And it's produced a lot of sadness and Depression. The New York Times has written some brilliant pieces discussing this, and the Trump administration is aware of this, and they want to do something about it. They want to make it easier for people to have kids and to increase fertility. So I'll pose the question to my audience. What would it cost for you to have a baby or for someone you know of fertility age to have a child or have another baby if you have one? According to the New York Times, several ideas are being floated. Some are reserving 30% of Fulbright scholarships to married applicants with children, so that way there's more encouragement for people to have kids to go and pursue higher degrees. Another idea was to give a $5,000 cash baby bonus to American mother after delivery. Another idea was to make hospitalization free during pregnancy and delivery, or I guess government subsidized. Now, these are just all ideas. There's no specific bill being proposed. And not all these ideas are very original, because most of the developed world has suffered from low birth rates for a very, very long time. And they've tried a multitude of different solutions. To try to answer this, women in Hungary who have four or more children are exempt from income tax for life. In South Korea, private companies give bonuses to workers who have kids. And in Poland, they have some version of universal basic income for people with children. And some of these places have had some good results, some limited impacts. Fun fact. The only nation to have a seismic change in fertility rates in the modern era is the nation of Georgia. And that's only because it only reversed to have positive fertility levels after having below replacement, because the Georgian Orthodox patriarch, Patriarch Ela II, announced he was going to personally baptize everyone's third child. Third or more. So he personally baptized 30,000 children in a very small country, and the fertility rate increased from 1.59 children per woman in 2004 to 2.2 in 2016. I guess the idea of taking a selfie with the patriarch was enough to entice millennials to have kids. If Kim Kardashian offered the same proposal, I'm sure we'd see a baby boom. I mean, it's just maybe if the next pope does that, we'll see something going on in Italy. There are, I guess, ways to sit there and incentivize it in some capacity outside of just giving money. And it's not just places in Europe and East Asia which have low fertility levels, and they've had them for decades. I mean, parts of Europe are going back to the 1960s and late 50s where they've had Replacement level birth rates below replacement levels. Countries that you think have enormous population booms, lots of kids do not. They used to a long time ago, but they don't anymore. India, China, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Colombia all have fertility rates below replacement levels. Every one of these nations generations are getting smaller over time. And that's why many people in America anyway and in Western Europe have argued, well, we can't get people to have kids, so what are we going to do? We're just going to import people. But it's not that simple. You cannot just interchange people through mass immigration. Germany tried this and over a decade ago they imported millions of Syrians and Afghans with the promise that they'll be as productive as natural born Germans in no time at all. Well, here we are a decade later and according to the Wall Street Journal, they're suffering from a massive worker shortage. But how, how do you have a worker shortage when Angela Merkel kicked the doors open for your country to the almost basically the whole world? Because while over 65% of natural born Germans and native Germans have have a job and we're net contributors to society, the same is only true for a third of Afghans and Syrians. They don't have the same education level, they don't have the same work level. They're just not German. People are not interchangeable. And you need to understand that high performing, high IQ societies need children to innovate, to grow, to produce chap economic booms. It's why Elon Musk has been so worried about the Chronicle. Low birth rates in developed countries. And I don't, I don't believe what we should do. What Elon Musk is doing, trying to have, you know, 10,000 kids with millions of different concubines all across the world. That's not the answer. But there is an answer to it. And all countries aren't the same. Places like Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, South Korea and China, for example, they're in dire straits. Like they're in a place where it is incurable. In the near future, their population is going to have a massive decline and there's nothing at this point they could do about it. In our own hemisphere, Puerto Rico has such extremely low birth rates and such high domestic migration that is one of the fastest shrinking places as far as population on Earth. Their population today is as low as it was in 1980. China, our largest global adversary in the world, is losing 2 million people per year. That's, that's 2 million per year. They're going to lose a hundred million over the next 20 years and 500 million over the next 75 years. How do you fix a problem like that? You have to reverse in an immense way the, when you, when you put that into, into a, into a calculation in 75 years which is not that long ago. Truly there are people lie that are 75 years old and above 75 years you're talking about we had, they had homes for 1.4 billion people and now they only have 800 million. Who's going to live in all those empty homes? What will happen to those property values? What will happen to those schools? Who will take care of those seniors? Who will work? I mean maybe they'll have Rosie the Robot do it in everyone's houses, but I still think you're probably going to need people to a certain extent. And that's just China in epidemic of low birth rates is in every corner of the world outside of like Israel, several Islamic states and most parts of Africa. And even in Africa they're having population decline. People seem to think that this is low fertility is only like a white issue or an Asian issue. European and Asians because they've suffered from longest in America. That not true at all. In 2024 was the first year on record that black women actually had a lower fertility rate than white women. Black women had 1.518 children per woman. White women had 1.535. And while Hispanics had a baby boom in part because of Joe Biden's open border policy and they also failed to reach fertility level above replacement, they're sticking at 1.98 and it's going to decline next year. And while there are a few states that have normally like higher fertility levels than than others, the Dakotas have pretty high fertility levels. Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, there's not many. Many suffer from huge blights of very few children. And you're going to see the problem of school closures and this problem of what do you do in societies with don't have kids. You can't just import everyone in the world to come here and expect them to expect America to be America. Like it didn't work in Germany, like it won't work in other parts of the world. Government's policies have to start thinking about how they facilitate economies and housing policies and cultural policies that promote childbearing. So I asked the question again. What would it cost for the government to entice you or someone you know of childbearing years to have a baby? That's the ultimate question that Many governments around the world will be facing this century. We have on two guests next to discuss these policies. What are and aren't working and what this na, what this all means for our nation and the world's fertility. Up next.
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Ryan Gradosky
Okay, on this week's episode, this Thursday episode of Numbers Game, we have on two very brilliant guests who know a ton about the subject. The first is Cremu Raqueau. He's a writer on demographics and fertility. You can read his blog at CREMU CRA R E M I U X dot X Y Z and then Daniel has writes for a blog called MoreBirths.com which as you can guess, looks at births and data and fertility. And I'm excited for having them both here. So I'm going to start with Daniel first. Daniel and I'll ask the same question to crew Daniel. First question, why aren't Americans having as many children as they used to and also as many children as they desire? Because most polls show that Americans want to have more kids. They just don't.
Daniel
Yeah, there's a bunch of factors and one thing that you quickly understand when you study fertility and birth rates is that it is multi factored. But the biggest one is marriage rates have plummeted dramatically. Birth control has gotten very good. So actually, ironically, marriage matters more than before because people are much more able to avoid pregnancy unless conditions are basically perfect. So that usually means a long term committed relationship, usually means completed education being established, especially for young men in good work and so forth. So the list of requirements has shot up and people are taking longer and longer to sort of establish themselves and marriage rates have plummeted. So. So conditions are just not.
Ryan Gradosky
Yeah, and I Think, Karimu, I want to ask this question to you because maybe you know this. There is this a lot of times when it comes to fertility information. There's a lot of things in people's minds that were true many decades ago, but are no longer true. For instance, you know, the idea that Puerto Ricans have tons of babies when in fact they have actually one of the lowest birth rates in the whole world. Why is it that. Why is it that it used to be where low income people had a ton of kids and, and higher income people had relatively few, and now it's actually vice versa from data that I read. Whereas actually lower income people do actually have fewer children than before. Is that correct? Because it might not.
Cremu Raqueau
Yeah, that's actually correct in many countries, but not in all of them. There are, for example, Sweden was one of the earliest countries to make this transition towards a positive fertility by income gradient. And the major compositional reason for this gradient shift is that the number of unintended births has declined. Births were the main source of births for people in the lowest income brackets for a very long time. As they've acculturated, as we've gotten better healthcare, as we've improved the quality of birth control and whatnot, made things more manageable, it's become possible for them to have fewer of those onto the birth. Whereas people who are getting married and whatnot, they are often wanting to have kids so they will end up having those kids. They try shifted things around of the years.
Ryan Gradosky
Well, and it's so funny because the story of declining birth rates in within the 2000s and the 2010s is the story really of teenage pregnancy in part stopping. I mean, that's part of, that's a big part of the story is that teenage pregnancy decreased substantially. It's also that it, you know, people are having as many families with only one child as they used to. That's been pretty flat. It's just more people are having no kids, period. Is that correct?
Cremu Raqueau
Since about 2008, the number of teenage pregnancies has declined pretty precipitously. It was declining beforehand, but it would slow down a lot faster afterwards. And yeah, the number of childless people has gone up. Like in terms of people being able to pair off, because when they pair off, they didn't have the kids, but if they don't pay off all, then they don't have the kids. That seems to be what we're going towards.
Ryan Gradosky
Hmm. Daniel, is that, is that your research goes on?
Daniel
Yeah, that's quite accurate. Crimean is quite correct. But, yeah, your fertility rate has been dropping at every age up to age 35 is the latest. So you're delaying and delaying and delaying so much that it's even gotten into the 30s. So it's only 35 and above that fertility is actually increasing now.
Ryan Gradosky
Is that because of IVF and other drugs?
Daniel
Yeah. Well, also, people are just finally getting around to getting married and wanting to start a family in their 30s, sometimes in their mid-30s. But by that time, you're pushing up against some of the limits of biological fertility. So people cannot. People are just starting so late.
Ryan Gradosky
Right. I go between two things. One is that I'm a millennial. I'm 30. I just turned 38 on Tuesday, last Tuesday. So I, I have a lot of friends of mine who are women who are in my age range, where I've been went to high school with, who are now at a frantic pace saying, I have to get pregnant now. I, they, they were sold on the idea that they had way more time than they actually had, that they could spend a decade or so chasing guys who were never interested in them. And it just, it frankly, and things just didn't work out. There are some that have health issues and they're in a separate bucket than other ones. But I've noticed that substantially that people were kind of lied to about how much time they have, really. And my friend Megan McCain said to me one time, if you're a woman and you're serious about having kids, you need to take your fertility as seriously as you take your job.
Daniel
Yeah, that's a great point. And I call this kind of the lowest hanging fruit is awareness about fertility and trying to educate people to start much, much younger than they are. Because that, you know. You said it exactly. People are, you know, delaying so much, and they are at a frantic point in their late 30s. By that, some people will succeed. Some people will have the families that they want to have. A lot won't. So if you change one thing that's, you know, your easiest thing, the thing that's probably the most amenable to, you know, to change is simply awareness. I mean, in high schools, people should be having education about the fertility window, which is actually fertility. The ability to get pregnant actually peaks in the early 20s.
Ryan Gradosky
It's.
Daniel
And it's going down, you know, all throughout the 20s into the 30s. It's much earlier than anybody realizes.
Ryan Gradosky
Right. I mean, because everyone will see a celebrity getting pregnant at 40 and saying, oh, that could be me, you know, and not everyone is Megyn Kelly, who had her first kid I think at 40 or 41 and good for her. But not everyone's like that. If you were with now President Trump has been floating ideas, hasn't had a concrete policy on how to increase natility. There has been everything from $5,000 cash bonuses to having having classes on fertility and other things about childcare or taking Social Security money out for longer or longer maternity leaves. If you were with in front of the president or his administration, what is an effective policy that has been tried that actually increases fertility levels?
Cremu Raqueau
Yeah. So one thing I want to return to you from under there, that was what you guys just thought. This is the typo effect where people like fertility is reduced that period because people are delaying longer. If you want to fight the typical effect, you can fight it on the front end by cutting down. This is something they can do. Cutting down on high school graduation ages because you can get people out of high school at age 16, allow them to go to college at 16 and start having them start their adult lives earlier, giving them additional time to find a partner as an adult, find a partner as an accomplished person. Become accomplished earlier in life. You can gain back a few years and you can extend your fertility window so you can have more kids in that window. That is something they can immediately do. They have the power to do it. They have the power to encourage acceleration of school so people can do that even more readily if they're more able. Somebody who is capable of going to College at 12 but is held back because the system is very slow could be doing that. They could start their adult life much earlier. Give them a lot more time to do whatever.
Ryan Gradosky
Wow. I never want to never actually thought about before. There was a book called Generations. I can't remember the name of the author. It's a very. It's a very data heavy book and it was about how people nowadays have the life experience, the very delayed life experiences. So someone of 30 years now would have had the same experience as someone who was 20 years old maybe 30 years ago. And you're saying that that is if we were to accelerate the high school experience and accelerate the schooling experience and get kids to graduate at 16 instead of 18, that would help propel their life in general. Something I've never heard of before, honestly, but sounds interesting.
Cremu Raqueau
The children in Germany have done these reforms in certain regions and they have not resulted in any loss in academic achievement, but they have resulted in people entering the workforce. They've resulted in slight income increases for people who graduate younger. It's just been all around pretty good without any apparent downsides. So I think the family formation effect is actually pretty positive and pretty easy to implement, too. It cost us nothing to send to a school for less time.
Ryan Gradosky
Wow, Daniel, what were you going to say?
Daniel
No, I strongly agree. That is an outstanding point. We are in full agreement on that, actually. And another point, I think Cremieux probably made this at some point in his writing. But as well, it is the idea that you can give people tests to show their competency. So maybe instead of somebody getting their PhD at the age of 32, maybe they can show their college competency at the age of 20, show their PhD competency at the age of 23, they can be off and running with their life at the age of 24 instead of at the age of 35, like it is for postdocs these days. So we know that fertility is much lower for people that have high education. But the reason for that mainly is that all these years, the most fertile years, are consumed by education when they do not need to be. And if people can show their competency much sooner, then they can really, you know, they can really change the whole ball game and enjoy income and start their lives, you know, start having families in their 20s. And that would be a dramatic paradigm shift that would let people realize the fertility that they would like to have.
Ryan Gradosky
So it's funny because in last year, and I'm sure I read about fertility all the time on Twitter. That's why I found both of you guys, and I read both your Twitter's pretty fragile. In 2024, the two countries that had minor baby booms, but significant enough were South Korea and Norway. They had decent upshots in a year that most of the world's fertility dropped pretty substantially. You know, nations like Hungary offers, you know, I think it's no income tax if you have four children or more. There's other cash benefits from some countries I know in South Korea, companies are now handing out cash bonuses. Do any of those cash bonus policies work? And I guess because they all. All these countries have fairly low fertility rates.
Daniel
Yeah, I think they. They work. And I think one very important point is that you need to try things. You need to the idea that, you know, our mutual friend Lyman Stone has a saying, we've tried absolutely nothing and nothing works. You know, the point being is that, is that people only learned just yesterday that there even is a fertility crisis. And now, like, you're talking, like two minutes later you're going to declare the problem hopeless. You know, you actually have to make Effort. And I think a wonderful example to my mind of a country that has made very long running effort and has been very successful actually, is Israel. Israel has always tried many, many things all the time, you know, for the last 50, 60 years, you know, to be pronatal. And, you know, it's not an accident that they have high fertility. They have, it has been on their mind. They have been, you know, focusing on it for longer than any, you know, any major country, maybe France also.
Ryan Gradosky
But Crimin, before we go to you, two questions on Israel then. Is it, is it one, because their national identity is such a part of their core that gives them meaning to want to have kids. And secondly, I forget, someone told me this once, part of the reason Israel has a high fertility rate is because Israel has a high fertility rate in the sense that because your friends have kids, you have kids. It's more, it's not socially weird to have a child in your early 20s. In America, if a girl announced she was getting married at 21, someone would say, is everything okay with you? Or are you being conditioned to do this? And because the social pressures to not get married young are so heavy in the west and the United States and Canada and whatnot, and they're not present Israel, that's part of the reason as well. Is that true at all?
Daniel
Yeah, the cross cultural thing, you know, the shared culture is part of it. And certainly the, the Orthodox population, that culture is bleeding out into the rest of Israel in the sense that they're normalizing high fertility and early marriages. So that impacts the others. But also, we have to remember as well that the founders of Israel, like David Ben Gurion and Golda Meir were extremely directly, they directly told people, please, everybody have a lot of kids. And that with the sense of national identity really, you know, is something that Israelis really believe in. The national cause is having children in some sense.
Ryan Gradosky
Yeah. It's just Russia is very highly nationalistic as well, and Putin is begging people to have kids and no one's doing it. So it's very interesting. So, Kermit, what were you going to say about that as far as policies go and do cash bonuses work or anything?
Cremu Raqueau
I will say the cash bonuses work quite well. We've extensive evidence on this from a ton of different countries. Cash bonuses actually seem to be the reason for Mongolia's rebound from slightly, slightly below, replace the fertility, to quote above it. And they've worked incredibly well. They must have universal cash transfers the whole amazing way. I will say on the Israel subject, most Haredim are not friends with and vice versa. The friend groups tend to be quite insular. So if you're going to mix across these like high fertility and low fertility, you're not going to see a lot of that. So I don't think that's actually a major reason for the fertility rate.
Ryan Gradosky
In Israel. Even, even secular people have a lot of kids. Everyone has a lot of kids.
Cremu Raqueau
No, no, the Helen did not.
Ryan Gradosky
Relative to countries they do. Relative to like secular people in America they do.
Cremu Raqueau
Sure, sure. But it's still a big struggle and it's a common topic of like a little bit of grievance there as well. But we're often talking about what are we going to do when the future is mostly already or like that year, everything like that. And it's just not able to be held up by the name that I'm system historically held with the country. Now I will say Israel doesn't have a lot of good policy that is very pro family. I do think Israel has a good number of pro family policies. Some of them protect like, oh, pretty technological. Like you can get two kids through IVF before age 45. That is a universal benefit that is quite good that allows people to have kids. At the struggle with fertility, there's a lot of focus on fertility. You might have seen some of the popular focus on fertility for deceased soldiers where their sperm was electrocuted with their testicles there found dead and then it was used to impregnate their wives. Like there's a huge, huge focus on fertility in that respect and keeping families alive and all that. That's one of the highest goods there is in Judaism in terms of policy.
Ryan Gradosky
I did not know any of those things. That's really wild. I did not. Wow, that's. That is being very pro family. I have a. Someone wrote this in an article a couple of weeks ago and it's stuck with me ever since. And they said to me that they sent the article, not to me, but they sent the article that the ultimate problem is we separated retirement, government subsidized retirement which is paid for by children with childbearing. So in the sense that you work today for retirees of today and your children will work for you, but there's no requirement to have kids. And that has. That is what a lot of Western countries problems with the welfare state, welfare dependency, childbearing is that separation of retirement to childbearing. Do you agree with that?
Cremu Raqueau
Oh, there is something to it. I do believe it would be great if we reformed our Social Security around having kids Robin Hanson has a wonderful proposal for this where you get a transferable tax portion from your kids as they grow up. So for example, if your kid earns $100,000 and their payroll taxes are 10% of that, then you might get a quarter of that 10%. So you get 20. And that could be a wonderful benefit that could encourage you to promote your own kids productivity. If you get a grand virtual benefit, then you could take a portion of the benefits from their kids and so on and so forth. That could be wonderful in reform. It wouldn't hold people who don't have kids out of the retirement system because you could their Robin scheme sell that license to your kids, you know, future taxes and whatnot. That could work great. I don't know if it even possible though. It's very hard to manage these things because people really, really want to protect Social Security and its credit form even if it's not going to benefit them. It's just not good.
Ryan Gradosky
Yeah, it is.
Cremu Raqueau
Well, the old age pensions are not for good either. They're very, very small. The basic pension is only about 1800 shekels per month, which is like $600.
Ryan Gradosky
Hmm. Daniel, what do you think about all that idea?
Daniel
Well, yeah, I mean, one thing that we have to understand, you know, kind of is kind of the financial situation of people in their twenties, of young people. So we, you know, people are like, oh, society's never been richer, like why are people having fewer children? But actually, if you look at kind of the age distribution, you know, financial strength is overwhelmingly correlated with increasing age. So young people are having a brutal time, often trying to buy a house or trying to get established. And meanwhile, for example, if you look at houses, something that's incredibly important in terms of natalism, in terms of people having a family, is having having a house, especially a house with a yard. And single family homes are overwhelmingly owned by baby boomers and millennials and Gen Z, who are the ones who need to be having children right now, own a much smaller share of houses. There's this huge wealth disparity. And actually, if you look at how transfer payments tend to work in this country, young people are paying taxes, you know, toward older people on net, on average. And yet older people actually have a great deal more wealth than younger people. So that's actually a very regressive tax. You're actually taxing in a sense, when you're taxing young people to pay for the old, you're taxing the poor to pay for the rich.
Ryan Gradosky
So that's what role does immigration play in all of this because there is obviously a fixed number of housing a year. They have to build more of it. It takes time. Immigrants need a place to live. And they the comment in the media and among establishment politicians a lot of times as well. We could fix any issue when it comes to birthing with just bringing more immigrants in. But it seems that not only do Americans, well, not even just Americans, Brits, Canadians, when they're influx immigrants, only do they have fewer children, but then the immigrants themselves also have fewer children. Is an underlying societal problem or is it just one or two cultural things?
Daniel
DANIEL well, there is a problem if your immigration is outrunning your housing stock. I mean, if you, you know, the perfect example of where this happened is Canada. Canada, a single family home is like a million dollars and it's cold too, right? So but a single family home is like, you know, it's just completely out of reach of, you know, anybody under 40 in Canada. And so the birth rate in Canada has just been falling like a rock to like Japanese levels, you know, so and then there's another problem with that because Canada has been trying to solve its housing by erecting these high rise towers of very small apartments. And you know, if you look around the world, the lowest fertility that you find anywhere in the world is in these metropolises like in Shanghai or Seoul or places like this where everybody lives in a high rise apartment tower. In places where people live in tiny apartments and towers, you could get fertility of 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, just insanely low levels. So if Canada ends up with a housing shortage from having more immigration than they can handle, and then they turn around and try to solve it by building high rise apartment towers, they're making the problem much, much worse.
Ryan Gradosky
Yeah. I have a question for you. And this is a kind of we're going to wrap it. I'm on this question, but on this topic, but like, what is religion? What role does religion play in it? So I talked about this in the beginning of the hour. One of the only countries to to solve below replacement fertility levels was Georgia. The nation of Georgia, when they're patriarchal, decided he was going to personally baptize every third child in the country. And when that happened, the birth rate went from 1.59 to like 2.2 over a course of six years. Because my fellow millennials were like, great, I get a selfie with the patriarch. If they baptize my kid, this is going to be fantastic. And they wanted to have a third baby because of that do you have in America? Specifically in America you have subset religions like Orthodox Jews or Hasidic Jews, Amish, some branches of Mormonism, but very, very few, some Latin Mass Catholics, but very, very few who have extraordinarily high fertility levels. But. But the average American being less religious seems to also then complicate fertility levels. Is it that simple of just a marriage of religion and children? Like if you don't have high religiosity, you're not going to have a lot of kids?
Cremu Raqueau
No, I don't believe that's huge. Can I go to the housing thing real quick?
Ryan Gradosky
Yeah, sure, go ahead.
Cremu Raqueau
Not all countries do like projects are failing it like having it go together with fertility. Israel is actually a good example. I wanted to mention them before because they have a very pro family housing policy that allows them to upsell in their cities considerably. They have these two urban rule programs. One is a vacuum rebuild and the other one is Talma 38. They allow you to basically opt in with everyone around you to do sort of urban renewal where if you get your neighbors to approve proof of you building something larger on your space or with some of them, then you can go ahead and do that and you can build large condominiums with like four or five rooms. And these can be great for a family. They're not just. They could be. They look like a high rise at times. They can look much, much larger. They're generally higher quality than the old stock because those programs allow you to replace buildings built before the 1980s whenever they were just trying to build as much as they could to account for the influx of people. And these programs have been tremendous, like in the areas where people are allowed to do them. If you see a traditional family, like a sortie family who uses the program, they will tend to get a lot more floor space and they'll tend to have kids right after they get their builds done. It tends to be a very, very good program for increasing the density as well.
Ryan Gradosky
As you're saying modern architecture. Modern architecture specifically in Israel really reflects that. That complements a family versus like a lot of really crappy architecture in, you know, especially in New York where I am, where it's literally like as it's open, they just care to have an open floor plan. And. And that's basically all it is. It's just for one. It's basically for a single couple with either one child or no children. Everyone needs a home office now. So basically one child or no children. That's an interesting point. Does religion play a part in it, though?
Cremu Raqueau
Oh, yeah, sure it can. Actually, it's funny. This program can be very much complimented by religion. You will often see communities where people will share the same sort of strict religious backgrounds coming together to get these housing things done together. Like they. A traditional community might see, like, oh, you know, I have seven kids, I need a few more bedrooms. Everybody around might be more amenable to agreeing to allow that person to up zone and build a bigger home in that area, more condominiums, build more apartments, build more of whatever. And they can also use the proceeds for, like, building more apartments to, you know, fund their lifestyle and they're having more kids and whatnot. Yeah, I think these things don't tell very well. Yeah, I think in general, you will see in less religious communities less agreement up zone because, like, more or less readily ready agreement because there are fewer religious bonds to think of. Those religious bonds help people to, you know, make the decision to allow somebody to build something there, which is kind of nice. It speaks poorly to the ability to do this in places that are less religious, because if they don't have those sorts of common reasons to agree, like, oh, Bob over there needs a bigger hall, we should allow bald to build up their own. If you do it in San Francisco, I don't think you're going to have a religious part to that, and you're going to see a lot less agreement.
Ryan Gradosky
Yeah, well, I mean, you can barely build anything at all. Daniel, in America specifically, you have these, as I said before, these minor communities like Hasidic Jews and. Or Amish and some Latin Mass Catholics, some sects of Mormonism that still have large, large families, but as a whole, you don't. Is our future destined to be where, you know, we have Hasidic, Jewish or Amish states, and that's kind of the who's going to bear more of our children, you know, 50 or 100 years down the line.
Daniel
Yeah, I mean, there's no question that fertility of religious people has held up much, much more than it has for secular people. There was a wonderful talk actually, at the. At the Natalism Conference by my friend Professor Catherine Pakalik.
Ryan Gradosky
We had her on this podcast.
Daniel
Oh, wonderful, wonderful.
Ryan Gradosky
Yeah.
Daniel
So her point really is that, you know, we have gotten to the point where people don't really have. They don't really have to have children unless they have a reason to. So you need sort of an ideological basis or a philosophical basis, and it doesn't have to come from religion, but most often in the world today, it does, especially since I think the culture, the broader culture is not pronatal, is not, you know, people are not encouraged, you know, to have children. And it's not a strong part of the culture. But within these subcultures, you know, whether it be orthodox Catholics like Catherine Pakalik.
Ryan Gradosky
Or St. Mary's Kansas, which is a small Latin mass town in Kansas, but it has lots more children than anywhere around it.
Daniel
Sure, sure, sure. Or it can be, you know, the Amish or almost any community. You have, you know, sort of Protestant Christian communities that are like that as well. But really somewhere I think you have to have an ideological basis, a reason, a belief system that values that and encourages that and unites people around that as a vision. Because without that, it really looks like we can also learn from it. I really do believe that broader culture can orient itself to elevate the value of having children more highly than it does. But certainly religious communities seem to be the only ones that are doing that comprehensively in the world right now. So they're the only ones really having children in appreciable numbers.
Ryan Gradosky
Well, this is so fascinating. I want to thank you both for coming on the podcast. Tell everyone where they could read your stuff first. Kirmi, where can everyone read your stuff if they want to? It's fascinating stuff.
Cremu Raqueau
So you can actually go read a recent article about my subsection yesterday to zound this exact subject of fertility benefits that seem to work. You can find that at Cremu xyz. That's C R E M I E U X X Y Z.
Ryan Gradosky
Thank you so much. And Daniel, where can I read your stuff?
Daniel
So I, my, my mainly I post on, on Twitter, you know, pronatal ideas and pronatal content at. At more births.
Ryan Gradosky
Yes, I go to this Twitter account all the time at our birth.
Daniel
That's so inspiring that that gives me.
Ryan Gradosky
Yes, you guys, good information.
Daniel
Wonderful, Wonderful. And also MoreBirths.com I cross post some things that I have posted there. And@morebirth.com right now I have this, a publication, a 120 page mini book that you can download which I brought to the Natalism conference on fertility factors. So that's all coming.
Ryan Gradosky
Great. And thank you all both for being here. You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll right back.
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Ryan Gradosky
And now it's time for the Ask me Anything segment of the show. Please send me your questions on any kind of policy questions, history, culture, book and movie music reviews. I'll do my best to answer them for you. Email ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryanumbers plural game podcast.com and send them my way. I got a message asking, what will tariffs ultimately play in the midterm election? That is a great question and it's a big question. Of all these companies, according to CBS News, tons of companies have promised to start making manufacturing in America to avoid Trump's tariffs. Apple was one of them. There's a lot that have been promised. If those jobs come back and come to America, if the market doesn't suffer and if we don't go into recession, I think tariffs will be a very small player. I think the biggest problem with the tariff so far has been the messaging because it has been so confusing. It has been all over the place and I don't know the end goal, but if the result of that is we never went to a recession, the stock market's up. Even if it's slightly up, it's up. And job growth continued. And job growth for American citizens, which is not what happened under Joe Biden. It was mostly immigrants. If job growth for American citizens happens and wages go up, I think you'll be absolutely fine. I think Republicans will be absolutely fine. It will not be the level of chaos that people are, that people are predicting right now. We are way too early and we live in, you know, a news cycle by news cycle. Everyone's having knee jerk reactions, should calm down. We'll see what plays. We'll see how it goes. Job numbers in April were pretty good. Job growth for American citizens were pretty good. Wages are at 4%. We'll see how that continues to play out. But people's anxieties should be calmed down and let's see how if Donald Trump can continue to write that ship. Anyway, thank you so much everyone for listening this week. I really really appreciate it. I hope you found this podcast interesting. Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast wherever you listen your podcasts. I'll see you all next week.
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You're listening to an I Heart podcast.
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Global Decline in Birth Rates
Release Date: May 8, 2025
Host: Ryan Gradosky
Guests: Cremu Raqueau and Daniel from MoreBirths.com
Description: In this episode, Ryan Gradosky delves into the alarming global decline in birth rates, exploring its causes, implications, and potential solutions. With expert insights from Cremu Raqueau and Daniel, the discussion navigates through demographic trends, government policies, cultural influences, and the complex interplay between education, marriage, and fertility.
Ryan Gradosky opens the episode by highlighting a significant demographic milestone: the Class of 2025 is poised to become the largest group of 18-year-olds in American history. Born in 2007, approximately 4.32 million individuals represent this peak, surpassing the 3.67 million born in 2022—a 17% decrease. This surge marks the last year the United States achieved a replacement-level birth rate of 2.1 children per woman (Ryan, [02:37]).
"The class of 2040 will be 17% smaller than the class of 2025 just because people had fewer children." — Ryan Gradosky ([02:37])
Maintaining a replacement-level birth rate is crucial for societal sustainability. Ryan emphasizes that birth rates below 2.1 children per woman lead to population shrinkage, resulting in diminished home values, economic contraction, school closures, and increased societal depression. This trend has persisted since 2007, with concerns extending across generations—baby boomers facing loneliness without grandchildren and millennials struggling with lower fertility due to delayed family planning.
"America has had a chronically low fertility rate for decades, and it's something to be deeply concerned about." — Ryan Gradosky ([05:45])
Guests Cremu Raqueau and Daniel discuss the multifaceted causes behind the declining birth rates:
Marriage Rates and Birth Control: Daniel points out that declining marriage rates coupled with effective birth control have significantly reduced unintended pregnancies. The expectation of marriage as a precursor to childbearing has become harder to meet, leading to fewer children overall.
"Marriage rates have plummeted dramatically. Birth control has gotten very good, allowing people to avoid pregnancy unless conditions are perfect." — Daniel ([17:30])
Delayed Parenthood: Both guests agree that individuals are delaying marriage and childbearing until their late 30s, often due to extended educational pursuits and career establishment. This delay encroaches upon the biological fertility window, leading to lower birth rates.
"Fertility is dropping at every age up to 35, with only those 35 and above seeing a slight increase." — Daniel ([20:39])
Reduction in Teenage Pregnancies: Cremu highlights a significant decline in teenage pregnancies since 2008, contributing to the overall decrease in birth rates.
"Since about 2008, the number of teenage pregnancies has declined pretty precipitously." — Cremu Raqueau ([20:15])
Ryan broadens the discussion to a global scale, noting that low fertility rates are not confined to the United States:
Europe and East Asia: Countries like Hungary, South Korea, and Poland exhibit low fertility rates. Hungary's policy exempts individuals with four or more children from income tax, while South Korean companies offer bonuses for having children.
China's Decline: China faces a drastic population decrease, projected to lose 2 million people per year, amounting to 500 million over the next 75 years. This decline poses severe challenges, including workforce shortages and economic downturns.
"China is losing 2 million people per year. In 75 years, they'll lose 500 million." — Ryan Gradosky ([36:22])
Impact of Immigration: The notion of countering low birth rates with immigration is critiqued. Daniel illustrates this with Germany's experience, where high immigration did not offset worker shortages due to mismatched skill sets and cultural integration issues.
"People are not interchangeable. High-performing societies need children to innovate and grow." — Ryan Gradosky ([36:22])
The Trump administration's interest in policies to boost fertility is a focal point of the discussion. Various strategies are proposed and examined:
Financial Incentives: Ideas such as a $5,000 cash baby bonus for mothers after delivery are debated. Cremu cites Mongolia’s success with universal cash transfers in increasing birth rates.
"Cash bonuses seem to be the reason for Mongolia's rebound from below replacement fertility." — Cremu Raqueau ([30:53])
Educational Reforms: Cremu suggests accelerating the education system by reducing high school graduation ages, allowing individuals to start their adult lives and families earlier.
"Cutting down high school graduation ages can extend the fertility window, enabling more children." — Cremu Raqueau ([25:40])
Social Security Reforms: Proposals include linking Social Security benefits to having children, incentivizing future generations to contribute economically.
"Reforming Social Security to be tied to childbearing could encourage families to have more children." — Cremu Raqueau ([33:32])
The role of culture and religion is pivotal in shaping fertility rates:
Israel's Pronatalist Culture: Israel serves as a benchmark with high fertility rates attributed to strong national identity and religious influences. Policies supporting family growth, such as funding for fertility treatments and support for childbearing soldiers, reinforce this trend.
"The founders of Israel directly encouraged having a lot of kids, embedding it into the national identity." — Daniel ([30:53])
Authentic Community Support: Religious communities often have tighter social bonds, facilitating agreements on housing and urban development that support larger families.
"Communities sharing strict religious backgrounds are more amenable to building larger homes, supporting higher fertility." — Cremu Raqueau ([41:07])
Secular vs. Religious Societies: In contrast, secular societies like the United States lack cohesive cultural incentives, making it challenging to emulate Israel's pronatalist success.
"Religious communities are the only ones really having children in appreciable numbers." — Daniel ([45:43])
Both guests emphasize the interconnectedness of education, marriage, and fertility:
Early Competency: Accelerating educational achievement allows individuals to enter the workforce and form families earlier, aligning with peak fertility years.
"Competency achieved earlier allows people to start families in healthier fertility years." — Daniel ([26:05])
Academic Reforms: Implementing policies that permit accelerated schooling without compromising academic standards can provide more time for individuals to establish careers and relationships.
"Germany's reforms have shown positive outcomes without compromising academic achievement." — Cremu Raqueau ([25:40])
The episode concludes with sobering projections and calls for proactive measures:
Economic Strain: Shrinking populations will inevitably lead to fewer workers, impacting economic growth and the sustainability of social welfare systems.
Housing Market Challenges: Declining populations result in surplus housing, reducing property values and leading to abandoned homes.
Social Consequences: An aging population without sufficient younger generations to support them can exacerbate societal issues like loneliness and depression.
"We're facing a future where empty homes and schools become the norm, with insufficient people to support the elderly." — Ryan Gradosky ([36:22])
Ryan wraps up the episode by encouraging listeners to reflect on the cost and societal structures that influence childbearing decisions. He urges a reevaluation of policies and cultural norms to foster an environment conducive to higher fertility rates.
Notable Quotes:
"If you want to fight the typical effect, you can fight it on the front end by cutting down [high school graduation ages]." — Ryan Gradosky ([24:59])
"We have to start thinking about how they facilitate economies and housing policies and cultural policies that promote childbearing." — Ryan Gradosky ([36:22])
"Without an ideological basis or belief system that values and encourages having children, it's challenging to see a population rebound." — Daniel ([44:40])
For Further Reading:
This episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show provides a comprehensive exploration of the declining global birth rates, emphasizing the urgency for multifaceted policy interventions and cultural shifts to mitigate the impending demographic and economic challenges.