← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the GOP’s 2026 Midterm Comeback Strategy
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Guaranteed Human support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures the next
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30 seconds could save you hundreds on your car insurance at the Hartford we're passionate about your protection. If you're 50 or over, AARP auto insurance from the Hartford gives you benefits that really matter and you could save $597 when you switch. How's that? For a little peace of mind, visit trustheartford.com today the Hartford your protection is our passion. The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Pays royalty fees to AARP for the use of its intellectual property. AARP and its affiliates are not insurers. Savings vary. There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. Stand still. Not a chance. You're a lifelong learner who's come this far. Now we are here to help you keep going further. Capella University what can't you do? Visit capella.edu to learn more.
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Ryan Gradusky
This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com welcome back to it's a numbers game with Ryan Gradusky. I want to start by saying two things. One, give a moment of, of a moment to honor the great memory of Spirit Airline and the thousands of Instagram reels that filled my my page of people throwing luggage out the window or, you know, getting to fistfights. They were really great entertainment. Also, I've talked a lot of this podcast of personal victories. I made a meal the other day that was phenomenal. I'm going to talk about it during the Ask Me Anything segment because I know most people are for politics and any of my big bag of bs, but this was phenomenal. And some people do like my Italian recipes, my Italian food. I'm going to give you guys that at the end of the episode. Okay, let's get into the numbers of how Republicans can win the majority in the House of Representatives in November. I know everyone's already assumed it's a bygone conclusion. It's too far fetched. We can't win. It's going to be a 2018 blowout. I've been breaking down the numbers and they're not as bad as people think there are. There are a lot of ifs. There's a lot that could change and a lot of things do change from now until election day. But it's not as big a reach as even I thought it was. So let's first get into the redistricting fight because a lot is centered on the redistricting fight of what's going on with these new congressional districts since the Supreme Court ruled against race based redistricting. And remember, the DOJ said they're going to enforce lawsuits against race based redistricting. There's been a lot of movements, mostly in the Southern states ahead of the November election. Now there's a big problem in the sense that there's time. And this is what I heard in D.C. circles was that the liberal justices were taking such a long time to deliberate to give their opinions on this case because they wanted to hold it up as long as possible to give Republican states as little time as possible to redistrict ahead of the midterms. And this is, by the way, I'm not like breaking news. This was told widely throughout Washington, D.C. now, the crazy thing is going into this, almost all the Southern states have governors who cannot run for reelection, right? Governors in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina. They're all set to retire this year. So part of them are looking at this as I'm going to build my legacy, that I'm for my idea of fairness. I'm going to get a nice op ed in the New York Times. When I die, the obituary from establishment media is going to say I stood up for black majority districts. Or they're saying my legacy will be that I delivered Republicans more congressional districts. It's a very unusual thing because there's not as much political pressure that can be applied to a governor who is retiring as the one who needs to run for reelection in the future. And we're seeing this in this redistricting, you know, landscape is going on right now. First of all, let's look at the states that are not redistricting. That said, off the top, I am not redistricting. Georgia being number one. Georgia could redistrict one to two seats in Republicans favor, predominantly one, the one in South Georgia for sure. And Brian Kemp has said no. Obviously, Brian Kemp, anyone who follows the news knows Brian Kemp is not a big fan of Donald Trump's. Donald Trump's not a big fan of Brian Kemp. Trump tried to primary camp. Kemp obviously came out as a big victor. But there is no love lost between the two of them. But he has said flat out, I'm not redistricting. So take those seat, that seat to two seats off the table. Other state that's not redistricting is South Carolina. South Carolina, they have one predominantly black district, which is the, which is where Jim Clyburn is the representative. Now, for those who don't know, Jim Clyburn was the head of, was in Democratic leadership for a long time. Whenever, like, Nancy Pelosi used to take those pictures with, like House Democratic leadership, he was the older, bald, black gentleman next to Nancy Pelosi all the time. He is a powerhouse in South Carolina. He is the Democratic Party of South Carolina. And he most famously is the reason that Joe Biden won the nomination in 2020. He was the, he changed the trajectory of Biden's losing campaign because of his endorsement. Biden won South Carolina, then he won more Southern states. The black vote came for him. And that's after he got obliterated in Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada. And people were like, well, it's kind of over for Joe. Clyburn has immense political power and, and even in the Democratic Party, even with Nancy Pelosi retiring, all the rest of them kind of leaving, he still wields a lot of power and a lot of, you know, power for the state. And I think maybe a calculation could be that they want him there in Congress. In case they need money for the state and the Democrats have the House or whatnot. Anyway, so Henry McMasters, according to the Post Courier, says he is not redistricting. And I kind of believe that's where they lie. Let's talk about the places that are redistricting, pending some lawsuits. First of Tennessee. I'm actually surprised. Tennessee only has one Democrat district, one black majority district. It is the district in Memphis. If you look at a map of Tennessee right, it all looks red, ruby red. There's one little tiny little spot that is where there's the Democratic district. It's kind of even hard to redistrict because it's really in the corner and it's so Democratic. But the governor, Governor Lee has said that he is going to push forward arm redistricting and not only is going to be redistricting, they're going to overturn a 50 year law that allows them to do mid decade redistricting. It was illegal in, in Tennessee, like it's illegal in New Jersey and many other places. So they're going to overturn this law and once they can do that, they're going to take the Memphis district and split it into three. That will give Republicans a new seat out of Tennessee. The Congressman who's been there for sometime, Steve Cohen, he represents Tennessee, he has basically said that this is going to end up in litigation. They're going to fight this in litigation. But whether or not they win this in 2026, they're losing the seat in 2028. He has acknowledged that this seat is gone. It will be a Republican seat come 2028 and Tennessee is going to get another seat probably by 2032. It's very likely to. So Tennessee, all these people moving to it, they're very quickly adding seats and they can. East Tennessee is so Republican that if they push keep putting east Tennessee further central, they'll have enough Republican votes to make sure that they can continue to make all those seats Republican. So Tennessee is the one for Republicans going 1C for Republican. Next over is Alabama. Okay. This state is a mess. It is a mess. It is. You have no. I've been hearing from stories from people constantly. So initially Governor K. Ivey, she's allegedly, well, she's not allegedly a very old woman, but she's an older lady. An older, a woman of a certain age who allegedly likes the drink in the middle of the day and she does not want any redistricting. She was saying flat out, I'm not redistricting, I'm not doing anything and the leader of the state Senate in Alabama was a longtime Democrat who recently, fairly recently became a Republican. So he's not even gung ho about it either. And she said, I'm not redistricting, period. Well, she blanked. She's, she said, now we're going to redistrict. A big question is, do they do redistrict one seat or two? Because they're saying what I'm hearing is that she wants to go back to the old map, the map from before the lawsuit, which was one Democratic seat. However, it's a Democratic seat that involved, that basically captures almost the entire large portion of the black vote in Alabama. Well, you can't do that because we're against race based redistricting. So how do you have choosing now? They could make a Democratic seat if they may, like Birmingham and the surrounding areas. And in that case it's a Democratic seat, but it's not that Democratic. It's really a swing seat. They can make that a Republican seat, but a swing Republican seat as well. There's other things to do besides make it a full blown Republican seat. But if we can't do race based redistricting, I don't know how she does the old map that she says she's going to do. There's this really big push on the part of Republicans in Alabama to protect Democrat Terry Sewell's district. Terry Sewell is not a moderate Democrat in any sense. She votes as left as Bernie Sanders does. I mean, it's one for the other. It's, you know, instead of a Jewish guy from Vermont, it's a black woman from Alabama. But they vote exactly the same. The need to protect her or the fight to protect her is what's going on in Alabama right now. We'll see how that kind of plays out. The person who's pushing hardest for this 70 map, we're all Republic, there's all Republican seats, is Senator Tommy Tuperville. He is very likely going to be the next governor. He's, he's essentially the nominee now and it's Alabama. So he'll, he'll be, he's very, very, very likely going to be the next governor. He wants a 7oh map. He wants us very badly. He's been lobbying for it, he's been fighting for it. We'll see if he gets his way or if K. Ivy gets her way. It's very much about like, I mean, even though they're both people of a certain age, it's very much a generational fight in the, in the mindset of who they are as Republicans versus in the ages of who they are as Republicans. But Tuberville has been a one man machine wrecking ball. And if they get the seven map where it's all seven districts, a big credit goes to Tommy Tuperville more than basically any. It was Marsha Blackburn was very for the Tennessee seat. But Blackburn and Tuberville have been the two senators really fighting for redistricting their state's map. Over in Mississippi, Governor Tate Reeves, he is not up for real or retirement this year. But Governor Tate Reeves has said off the bat they are redistricting that seat. So that will be Benny Thomas's seat, will be a Republican seat. That will be an extra Republican seat for Republicans or Dexter seat for Republicans out of Mississippi. And that leaves us with Louisiana. Louisiana has two Democratic seats, one based out of predominantly New Orleans and one out of Baton Rouge. So let me tell you guys a little story. This is not that long ago. It was like six or seven years ago when the lawsuit came out where they had to draw a second Democratic seat. I. There's a man in Louisiana, he was a congressman. His name is Garrett Graves. I don't know whose cereal this man peed in, but for whatever reason, he is the most hated man in Louisiana. He's a Republican. And they purposely drew his house into this new Democratic district. They did not want him having a seat in Congress. They, they were like, we're getting rid of this guy and that's that. Well, now they're talking about redistricting. They were having a conversation about giving, you know, either either all Republican seats or one Democratic seat. They. What I'm hearing, this is alleged, allegedly they do not want to give all Republican seats because they don't even want the possibility of Garrett Graves running for his old seat again. What did this man do that everyone can't stand him? It's, it's quite bizarre. So if they did the old map, which basically breaks up the Baton Rouge district into several different, different districts, it opens up a seat in central to northern Louisiana. The population center where population is growing, however, is in southeast Louisiana. It's by St. Tammany Parish and Orleans Parish and Jefferson Parish. They are, they want, they're going to break up the New Orleans district, which is much harder to break up really because it's much more, it's much more Democratic. They're going to break up the New Orleans district and make another Republican district more in the south, more in the east, away from Garrett Graves, his house. That's what I'm hearing. That's how desperately they want to prevent this man from being able to run for office again. Once again, don't know who he pissed off, but he pissed somebody up royally. That this is like an eight year long feud. Louisiana can get messy. It really can. Having lived there now for, for a bit, it can get really messy. It would be hilarious though, if I end up in a seat that's, that's like a vacant Republican seat, I will get calls immediately saying, hey, just do it for fun. Run for office. I will not do it, but it will be funny. Okay, so if you add all those seats together that depending on what Alabama does, that creates four or five new Republican districts. Now, there is also the two court cases that we're looking at that will also decide this. The first being in Virginia and the second being in Florida. Let's talk about Florida first. Florida. Ron DeSantis redistricted his map, creating four new Republican majority districts, districts that Trump won anyway by a good margin. Well, all those maps are in the middle of a new lawsuit by Mark Elias. He's a Democratic lawyer. He's pretty awful person. Constantly tries to make blue states redistrict Republicans out of existence. Says he fights for democracy, but he works really hard at making sure voters, depending on how they vote, don't get any say in who their congressman is. Make sure they're all Democratic seats. He tried to get rid of the Staten island seat put into Manhattan. He's awful. Anyway, he is suing the, he is suing Florida. And because the claim that he is saying is it flies in the face of Florida's fair district's amendment, which was passed in 2010. The amendment says it's in the Florida constitution. Maps cannot be drawn to favor an incumbent or a political party. DeSantis are saying that it, that they're not, but they're because they're compact maps. We'll see how that goes. I mean, it seems like Mark Elias has a case to be made. We'll see how the court does it. It is going to, I think a Republican judge at first. I could see it's working its way up to the Florida Supreme Court, which is very Republican as well. But that will be an interesting question of whether Mark Elias wins. And if he loses, those are four more seats going to Republicans. They the more interesting case is the one in Virginia over their referendum. Okay, I'm going to read court documents to you. Per court documents, Virginia, Virginia, Democrats advance the proposal during the 2024 special session of the general election. However, there are strict rules as to what kind of legislation can be considered during these types of sessions. Democrats reportedly violated those rules. As a result, any actions taking place, the taking place to advance the plan would be deemed illegal. That is what the court case is saying. The court case is saying there are certain time restrictions on how this referendum could have gone forward. In Virginia, Democrats broke the law when they put forward this ballot initiative that passed by three points. So so far it's made its way to the Virginia Supreme Court. The Virginia Supreme Court has not certify this election results despite it being a week now. And as of Friday they were supposed to decide by Friday. They have not decided yet. As of recording this podcast, they have not decided. And according to Dan Turntine from the Huddle, he's been on this podcast before. I love Dan Turntime. He's a longtime Democratic strategist. He said that there is growing anxiety among Democrats, Virginia Democrats and fights kind of happening behind the scenes because of Spamberger initially told the legislator we can't do this. It is not legal. And she was kind of strong armed into this position. And her approval rating, I've done multiple episodes. Her writing is tanking because of this. Her pro rating is falling apart because of this. So he says he gives it less than a 50% chance that they certify this election. If that happens, huge blowback to Spamberger use blowback to Democrats who spent $65 million, $66 million on this redistricting effort that went nowhere and the octarian speaker of the House who's completely delusional at this point. But if that happens, that would give Republicans a chance at another four seats. So four in Virginia, four in Florida and four to five in the Deep south. Thirteen seats total. That's a lot of ifs. I want to remind everyone that's a lot of if, if, if. So nothing is set in stone. But those are the initial things that we need to track and look forward to in order to see what, what the map actually looks like. Do Republicans really have this chance if all three those things happen? Republicans will start out with about 210 seats in Congress. 209, 210, 208, something like that. Depending on what you say is a toss up seat. It's a little nuanced, but between 208 to 210 seats, they only need another 10 at most to win the majority. How do they do that? How do they win the majority? We get back into that. Coming up next, support for the show
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comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures the next
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30 seconds could save you hundreds on your car insurance at the Hartford we're passionate about your protection. If you're 50 or over, AARP Ottawa Insurance from the Hartford gives you benefits that really matter and you could save $597 when you switch. How's that For a little peace of mind? Visit trusthartford.com today the Hartford your protection is our passion. The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. Pays royalty fees to AARP for the use of its intellectual property. AARP and its affiliates are not insurers. Savings vary.
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- [22:06]
Ryan Gradusky
As I said before, if Republicans manage the redistricting wins in the Deep south and the lawsuit in Virginia and the lawsuit in Florida, they start off this map with about 209 to 210 House seats. They need 218 to win the majority. Right. 10, eight to 10 more, depending on what you call a swing district. How do they do that? Where are those eight seats? Right, that's what we want to look at. Where is the 80s to create the majority? All right, let's. Let's first go into the seats that they're going to defend in the House represent. Where are they going to gun to take out seats, especially that Kamala Harris won, but a Republican represents them in Congress. The first being Mike Lawler seat in New York 17. That's the Rockland county seat. His seat will be very dependent on how the orthodox Jewish vote. The other seat is Pennsylvania's first Congressional district. That's Bucks county, and a little bit north of Bucks, a little bit of the Philadelphia suburb area. Fitzpatrick is the most liberal member of the Congress by a long shot, but he is a fundraising machine, and he's very popular in his seat. I actually don't even have his seat as a toss. I think his seat is actually probably lean Republican, despite Kamala Harris having won it. That's the two that are the peak, you know, peak targets for the. For the Democrats that Republicans we need to defend, and they both have kind of special conditions. Lawler very. Has a very orthodox Jewish seat. Fitzpatrick, he's a very liberal Republican, but in a seat that he has a lot of money and he's personally very popular. He only votes for The Republicans, like, 55% of the time, so he's considered an independent. So there's seats in the Northeast. There's Scott Perry, he represents Harrisburg in Pennsylvania 10, it's Harrisburg at the surrounding areas. Perry is a very conservative congressman in a district that's moving to the left very quickly as more people from Maryland and New Jersey and Philadelphia move to that area of the state. Then there's two other districts, Pennsylvan, eight, Rob Brusherman, and then there's Pennsylvania seven, Ryan McKenzie. Those are the two Northeast Pennsylvania seats. They're both freshmen. It will be a tough battle to fight. And right over the river is Tom Keane over in New Jersey 7. So those is like, that's the biggest compact of swing areas that all Touch each other. Those two in Pennsylvania and the one in New Jersey. And then a little further away is new is Pennsylvania. Ten Republicans would have to defend those seats. But that's five right there. Those are five seats right there that Republicans would need to defend. And if they can def. Can win them, that takes the pressure immediately off the rest of the map. Now in the Southeast, almost all the seats are safe Republican, except for Chuck Edwards from North Carolina. You're like, who is Chuck Edwards? Chuck Edwards represents the mountains of Appalachia. He is. He took over from Madison Cawthorne when Madison Cawthorne had all his scandals. Well, Chuck Edwards now running for reelection, his first reelection, has tons of scandals. He allegedly, he's under ethical investigation for allegedly having a. An affair with a staffer. And according to Axios, made multiple female staffers very uncomfortable giving them handwritten notes. One of the letters said that the staffer wrote a. Had, quote, written a complex chapter to his heart. That is just so stupid. Anyway, he, like, you know, this is such a weird Congress where you have everyone from Corey Mills to, To Eric Slowell. Everyone's no. 1. Keep it in their pants. Keep it your pants and run for reelection. All right, he's going to have issues because of his personal stuff going on, but otherwise is a pretty likely Republican seat. He's going to be controversial. Who ever thought that the man following Madison Cawthorn would be more controversial? But he's more controversial if the Virginia lawsuit, by the way, also if the Republicans win that Jen Kiggins in Pennsylvania. Sorry. In Virginia. Second. That's the Virginia beach district. That will also be very competitive. Okay, but that's, that's how you. That's the entire Southeast. Over in the Midwest, there are five seats. Two in Michigan, one in Wisconsin and two in Iowa. You have. Over in Michigan, you have the vacancy that John James is leaving outside of Detroit. And Tom Barrett Z. That's kind of more central Michigan. That's Michigan 7. Over in Wisconsin, you have western Wisconsin, Wisconsin's third district. Derek Van Orden represents that district. He's in a lot of trouble. And in Iowa, there's really three swing seats in Iowa. But there's two that are really in a lot of trouble. There is the pro amnesty Republican Zach Nunn, his seat in southwest Iowa. And then there's Marinette Miller Meeks. Mmm. She's in southeast Iowa. Let me tell you, she doesn't get talked about a lot. Marinette Miller Meeks. But she is the face of persistence, this lady. She ran three times for the seat, lost all three times, then ran for state Senate, won the state Senate seat. Then she runs again a fourth time after losing three times and she wins by 3,6 votes out of 400,000 cast. She wins comfortably the second time and then the third time she wins by 800 votes out of 415,000 cast. She pulls out squeakers like no one's business. Can she do it again? Who's to say? We'll find out very quickly. But yeah, she me, Triple M's Mary Marionette Miller Meeks is. She's, she's able to pull by bicycles. And by the way, in addition that Trump won overwhelmingly. So it's not like a huge, it's not Susan Collins. This is not a big accomplishment. She should be able to win there by good margins and she can, but she does win. So it's very strange. Okay. The other seat that Republicans, Democrats are targeting is the Omaha seat in Nebraska that is vacated by Dom Bacon. That seat is most likely going to Democrats. It's very unlikely they're going to. Republicans will hold that seat. It's a, it's a vacancy. Okay. Over in the mountain states in the Southwest, there's just a handful of seats last left to defend. Gabe Evans, he represents Colorado's 8th. That's the suburbs of Denver. You have Juan Siskamani, he represents this like southeast Arizona. And you have a suburban seat, District 1, which is vacant over representing the Phoenix suburbs. That's really it. That's the entire landscape. If you want, if Democrats had a really good year, they could stretch. They can go after Iowa's first district. They could go Monica De La Cruz's district and Texas's 15th district. There's a few other ones that they could reach for. But that's basically it. That's basically where Republicans are on super defense this time in districts that they can lose. Now where can they go on offense? Can Republicans pick up any Democratic seats? The answer is yes. There are two seats in South Texas. Henry Cuellar seat. He is the most conservative Democrat in Congress by a long shot. I think he actually votes majority time with Trump or he did anyway. He was under multiple investigations and I believe he was indicted and for whatever reason, Trump pardoned him. This is a Democrat, by the way, who did not then switch parties. He's running for re election. It is very strange. I don't know why the pardon ever happened. But anyway, Henry Cuellar seat and then right next door or a district and a half next door is Vincent Vincente Gonzalez. That's Texas 34th District. He is also up in a Trump backed district. Over in Ohio, Marcy Kaptor. She's been in Congress longer than I've been alive. She's running again. Her district was changed and is much more Republican. That is a prime pickup seat opportunity in Ohio. In Washington State you have Maria Perez's seat. That's the seat that Joe Kent ran for and lost. It was represented previously by Republicans. Trump won it. It's a tough, it's a reach, but it's possible. And then the other two districts that Republicans can really reach for is over in Long island In New York's 3rd congressional district, the old George Santos seat. This is a seat that Trump won by four points. A Republican named Michael Petrie is running. He's very, he ran last time. He came very close to beating, defeating Tom Swazi, the longtime incumbent. He, they have a chance. It's a Trump seat by a decent margin. This wasn't a seat that Trump barely won. So there, and there's a, it's a big Jewish population as well. It's a big Asian population. So we'll see how the dynamics change there. But that's definitely a prime pickup opportunity. And then the last One is Maine's second congressional, that's northern Maine. It is a Trump 10 seat. Trump won it by 10 points last time. The former governor Paul LePage. He is a wild man. You could, I could do a whole episode on Paula Page. A very interesting human being, but a wild man. He has never lost that district anytime he's ever run statewide. So he's running as a Republican. I think that's probably the biggest opportunity Republicans have to pick up a seat. Anyway, that's the gamut, that's the entire map for you. Right? So think about, think about first of all, how few people, relatively few people in this country will decide the speaker of the House Representatives race and who is the majority in Congress. It's probably less than 10 million people live in a, will vote for, will vote in favor of the congressman who will be, who will make up the majority of maybe 20 million. Maybe we see 20 million at most. Right. Because you think everyone who lives there, not everyone who votes, everyone who votes in these places is probably 10 million people who live there. Maybe 20 million, not many, not many in a country of 350 million people. Really we are a democracy that if you're in the right zip code, you make a lot of big decisions. But that's pretty wild. Anyway, those are the districts that, that's the math. If Virginia, the Virginia lawsuit goes for Republicans way. If Florida goes Republicans way. And if the south three districts were at 209 seats, about there's 15 seats to defend. There are maybe like 17 seats, I'll be generous, 17 seats to defend and there's seven seats to go on the offense. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the House. It's not impossible for Republicans to get a majority. They need to win about 9 to 10 out of 22, 23 seats total, 24 seats. I mean we're all playing with like is this really a swing seat? Is this not really swing seat? So I'm, that's why my numbers are changing a little bit. But about 10 seats to win out of 22, 22, 23, that's less than half. It actually shocked me when I did this math because the conclusion, the bygone conclusion is not only is this impossible, but it is going to be 2018 style wave. I don't think we're there. I don't think we're there. I just don't think the maps, the maps have changed so much. Where we would either have to see a Hillary Clinton style reversion of the Latino vote, where we're losing Latinos by 50 points, kind of don't see that. And we would have to see a map where there's just not as many swing seats. That's the, that's the point. There's not that many swing seats left. We are in a country where people basically live in a sea that's going to go one way or the other almost every time with very, very, very few exceptions. Okay, next up, ask me anything.
- [33:12]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
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- [34:13]
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Ryan Gradusky
Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, you'll be ryan@NumbersGame podcast.com that's ryan@Numbers plural numbers game podcast.com Top of the show. I told you about a personal victory. I had a meal that I made. Guys. It was like it was restaurant quality. Like it was really good. I made a pasta with broccoli sauce and a lemon chicken that was was legitimately 10 out of 10. I'm not even just like my guess is jaws were on the floor. That's how good it is. I want to tell you about how to make it because it because the recipes that I get like when I give a recipe I get so much positive feedback, and I want people to eat good. I mean, life is too short to have a bad meal. This is how you make it. It's very simple. Basically, you take raw broccoli and olive oil. You coat the whole bottom of pan, a pot and olive oil. Throw broccoli in, throw garlic. Don't even cut the garlic. Nothing. Don't chop the. The whole entire two cloves of garlic. You put some salt, whatever spices you want, a little. A little paprika, a little, you know, a little spice, cup of water. And you steam it, and you let it steam, and you'll cook through the steaming. Then you take cheese, like Parmesan and some Romano cheese, and you whip them together with an egg. So many Italian recipes do not call for dairy that you think call for dairy. It's actually just cheese and eggs. You whip them together with an egg. Once the broccoli is cooked, you take what the masher, whatever that's called, like the. The thing that mashes the food. And you mash the broccoli and you mash the garlic. You throw the cheese in, you mix them together. All this time, you've boiled a pot of water with pasta in it. You spoon the pasta into the. Into the pot with the broccoli in it. And then you apply a cup, or not a cup, a. A spoonful, a ladle full of water from the pasta into the pot with the broccoli in it. You whip them all together, you coat it with more olive oil, a little more cheese, and that's basically it. You mix it together. It's done. It's amazing. It's incredible. It's so good. It's pretty healthy for you. You have, you know, vitamins and fiber from the broccoli. It's not super heavy. It's so delicious. And the chicken. Wait. This was incredible, guys. So cut the chicken in half, you tenderize it. You beat it with like, a mallet or something like that. You can use a wine bottle if you got nothing else to. Nothing. I mean, if you got a wine bottle, use a wine bottle. Who knows? Life's better with some wine. You take. You throw two cups of butter in it. You bread the chicken lightly with either, like, flour or what I did, which is breadcrumbs, no egg on top, but nothing. You just bread it as well as wet. You throw it in with the melted butter, cook them, and then you take like, Alfredo sauce with lemonade. You can make your own with heavy whipping cream, but you've got time for that. You got just buy the die Alfredo sauce with lemon in it. You coat that in and you put in a cup or not a cup, a half, a cup of dry white wine together creates the most incredible marinade. You just flip them over, cook them, take them out, sprinkle the sauce that you made on top, the juice you made on top, put a little cilantro. That's it. That's the whole meal, guys. It was incredible. So good. Not my grandma's recipe, not the grandma's meatball recipe, but it was excellent. And some of you appreciate the food recipes, so I'm going to keep giving them as long as you appreciate them. Now it's time to go back to the politics. Let's talk about questions from Ask Me Anything. First one comes from Brian. Brian writes, imagine a world which Bill Clinton opposed both the NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement and granting China permanent normal trade relations, effectively blocking their entry into the wto. In this scenario, what does America's electorate look like today? Do soccer moms and NASCAR dads can even evolve as political archetypes? Does change narratives that propelled Obama to the White House still resonate? Does a Hillary Clinton campaign succeed without that specific policy baggage of her husband? Finally, would that political inversion between parties that ultimately benefit Trump have ever taken place? Happy 39th birthday. What an interesting question. It's a lot to chew on. Obviously we don't enter wto, we don't enter nafta, we don't have we will still lose some manufacturing jobs as we did before those two things. But we wouldn't see the huge plum drop in manufacturing jobs that we saw during really the Bush administration because Bush made China a permanent member of the wto. Likely. I mean I can't speak to every one of those scenarios. I will say the one scenario that I would speak to because remember Obama's change was really about Iraq and the financial crisis, not so much about about the trade agreements that was all kind of in the background. Hillary and Trump in that scenario. I would think Hillary would actually be Trump if we had if mish. If Trump did not have the substantial loss of manufacturing and the two decades of the opioid crisis or decade and a half the opioid crisis that fill that void for a lot of people. I don't know if he wins. I don't think he went Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Those jobs would still be there. Those people would still be blue collar workers. And yeah, I think I fed a lot when Trump. I remember this so well. In 2016, Trump went to. He gave a speech in Michigan saying that he would tell the executives of the Ford Motor Industry that if they move their cars to China or Japan, he was going to put it. Or Mexico, he was going to put a tariff so strong on their business it would bankrupt them. And it was electricity in Michigan. So, yeah, would. Would that, Would that. Yeah. I don't. Without that, I don't know if he would win. I really don't. I, I think. Here's the thing. And I wrote this in my book. It's called They're Not Listening. I actually have a copy right next to me. You don't have to buy it because it's out for years. I don't make any money off of it. I mean, you can, it's interesting. You can listen to an audio too. I don't read it. You don't hear my nasally voice. The, the thing about Trump is the elite who hated him were the ones who created him. The elite who can't stand him were the media that gave him free advertising. And it was the political class like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and George W. Bush who hurt the livelihoods of the American people to such a degree that they would vote for a reality show star. Somebody who now it seems like, of course, Donald Trump. But 11 years ago, absolutely not. Yeah, they, they created him. So if they didn't create him, if they didn't do those things, the open borders, the endless wars, Iraq, open borders, mass immigration, nafta, China, wto. Without those things, you don't get Donald Trump. You just don't. That's my opinion. Okay, next question is. I think the first this question comes from Michael, by the way. He said, I enjoy your podcast with Ann Coulter. I frequently hear that political violence is mostly right wing phenomenon, but I find this hard to believe, especially given the size and scope of the BLM and Antifa rallies since 2020. How are they deriving these numbers? Do all instances of violence count the same? No, they do not. That is such a good question. I was on Laura Ingram show about this one time. So the way that the splc, which is the predominant group, I know Cato, had their own numbers, but Cato is such a joke of an organization. SPLC is the one that everyone kind of reaches to for the official numbers on. On crime with political violence. The way that they do it is if you are associated with anything that they deem as right wing and you commit a crime at all, it is therefore right wing political violence. So for instance, I remember this very specifically. It was A case of a man from New Hampshire who was in a Nazi prison gang when he was in prison, gets out of prison and kills his stepbrother for calling the police on him for a different crime where he, I think he shot a gun out of his car into a neighborhood like a stray bullet. Didn't kill anybody, didn't hurt anybody, but the brother called the police and then he killed the brother. There is no politics in that conversation at all. He wasn't doing it for any political reason but the fact that he belonged to a Nazi prison gang and that is deemed as a right wing political organization. According to splc, he committed a right wing targeted attack. No one from the BLM riots who committed a crime or virtually no one who committed a crime was ever counted as political violence. David Dorn, the former policeman, 77, 70 something year old black policeman, was murdered by BLM rioters. It was not counted as BLM incited violence or left wing violence at all. They were like, nope, doesn't count, doesn't count at all. If you went to a BLM rally and then broke a window, burned a building, beat somebody, murdered somebody. No, it is not counted as left wing violence. If you belong to a gang in prison and that gang is white and you commit another crime out of prison, as many former prisoners do, that is considered right wing political violence. That's how they calculate it is utter and total nonsense. That's why these organizations should not be trusted. These non profits. They also don't count, by the way. They don't count non homicidal crime. I remember 2016. I was in my late 20s if you. I remember in Chicago when the Trump supporters were going to Chicago to see Trump speak and they were attacked. I remember where that woman was like I think was in California. They threw eggs at her. Those are acts of political violence. They are not homicidal but they are not counted as left wing political violence. So also by the way, you know who's not count as left wing political violence? Luigi. Yep. Luigi Mangione is not considered left wing political violence because he doesn't have a quote, ideology. Okay. You also wrote, by the way, you email me the NFL draft pick. I know nothing about sports so I can't even read that question because I'm going to sound like a last question. Comes from Trevor. He writes, I hope you had a great birthday. I did, thank you Trevor. He says, do you think it'd be a good idea to amend the Constitution so that any effort to increase or expand immigration must be passed by a majority of voters in a nationwide ballot referendum. I understand that the founding Fathers weren't huge fans of direct democracy, but I think that who lives here and who votes here is too important. The Americans should get a say. Also, the foreign population of the US is now estimated 15 to 16 of the total population. Do you think that we should set caps on what the percentage of the US population foreign born should be? If yes, what should the percentage be? Those are very smart questions. Let's start with the referendum first. No, I don't think that showing for referendum because there are just times when there is, you know, unforeseen instances where immigration flows up. Let's say Canada is invaded. I'm just making up a, making a random thing. But we have to take in refugees from Canada and mass immigration is expanded or we have a situation where there is something. We need a group of people. We can't wait for a national referendum. National referendums in a nation like ours, I don't think really work. It's too big, it's too diverse. They work sometimes in places like Liechtenstein or Switzerland. And even when they are national referendums, like in Switzerland, they had one on capping immigration. And what happened was after the people voted for, then went on to. It was watered down when it was applied, so they didn't even get what they wanted. So no, no national referendum. Should there be a cap on the foreign population? Yes, there should. I would say it should never exceed. Well, I would say it should never exceed 15, but we're already over that, so 15. We got to work our way down. Anyway, I have more great stuff coming up next on On Friday's episode, new birth data once again showing Trump's immigration policies are working. It is happening. We are seeing declines in immigration. We have that and so much more. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app. Apple Podcast. Wherever you get this podcast or if you're watching on YouTube, press subscribe and click the bell so you don't miss any of these episodes. I appreciate you all. Have a great Wednesday. Everybody, this is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive. And when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting, all linked and talking to each other. Check out odoo@odoo.com that's o-o.com.
- [48:50]
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