It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Midterms: EXCLUSIVE Look at Poll on Trump, AI Fears, and Voter Populism

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Midterms – EXCLUSIVE Look at Poll on Trump, AI Fears, and Voter Populism
Date: March 9, 2026
Host: Ryan Graduski
Guest: Brent Buchanan, President of Signal Polling

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Overview

This episode provides an in-depth look at new polling data on the 2026 midterms, exploring how voters feel about economic trends, Trump’s position, AI, populism, immigration, crime, and other major issues shaping the current political climate. Host Ryan Graduski is joined by Brent Buchanan (Signal Polling) for an exclusive breakdown of polling insights affecting both parties as the November midterms approach.

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Key Segments and Insights

1. Economic Trends and Jobs Numbers

[03:21 – 16:30]

• Unfavorable Jobs Report:
  February saw the U.S. lose 92,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate at 4%. December’s data was also revised downward. Manufacturing jobs declined sharply—89,000 lost since February 2025.
• Revision Trend:
  “Being revised downward has become a new normal almost every month for the last two years.” – Ryan Graduski [05:00]
• Manufacturing/Blue Collar Decline:
  Manufacturing, transportation, and mining jobs fell by 238,000 over the year. Native-born U.S. job growth is anemic (+128,000), while foreign-born hiring is down more than half a million.
• Demographic Unemployment Gaps:
  Asian and Black unemployment rates have substantially increased, while white unemployment decreased slightly. Teenage unemployment now near 15%.
• Retirement Worries:
  Record 6% of workers are tapping 401k plans for hardship withdrawals—“That’s up from 4.8 in 2024 and from 2% before the pandemic.” [07:55]
• Political Impact:
  “You don’t have to be NoDomas to know these numbers are not good for Republicans.” – Ryan [08:10]
• Wage and Productivity Bright Spots:
  Wages are up 3.8%, productivity is strong at 2.2% above pre-pandemic forecasts, outpacing inflation.

2. Crime and Prosecutor Study

[10:40 – 17:45]

• Vanderbilt Study on Prosecutors:
  A new study found electing a Republican prosecutor reduces all-cause mortality rates among young men (ages 20–29) by 6.66%, primarily by cutting firearm-related deaths, especially among Black men.
• Implications:
  “The best thing for a Black American is a Republican district attorney. There’s no other way to say it.” – Ryan [13:40]
• Policy Claims:
  This supports conservative claims: tough-on-crime policies save lives in high-crime areas, challenging media narratives.

3. Midterm Polling Deep Dive with Brent Buchanan (Signal Polling)

[21:50 – 49:37]

State of the Midterms

• Democratic Lead Shrinking:
  Democrats currently lead congressional generic ballot by 4 points (49–45). This is narrower than their 2018 advantage (D+7 to D+13 at the same stage), which led to a 9-point popular vote win.
• Republican Base Movement:
  Non-college voters had drifted from GOP over six months but came “home” in the latest survey; meanwhile, the college-educated tilt toward Democrats widened rapidly this month.
• Urban/Suburban Dynamics:
  Republican urban gains aren’t yet enough to flip city seats, while suburban (college-educated) seats remain challenging.

Trump’s Standing

• Favorable Ratings:
  Trump’s favorability: 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable. “Trump’s image is at a floor right now.” – Brent Buchanan [27:20]
• Comparison to Past Presidents:
  “Unlike Bush and unlike Biden…between 38 and 43, that’s his basically floor.” – Ryan [27:25]
• Congressional GOP:
  Republicans in Congress polling at 41% favorable, 55% unfavorable—which Brent calls “pretty good” relative to expectations.

Voter Priorities and Issue Salience

• Top Issues:
  “Threats to democracy” now ranks as the most important issue—seen by Brent as shorthand for “I hate Trump and he terrifies me.” [29:53]
  • Economy, inflation, and immigration follow, but no one issue dominates.
  • 76% say they’re careful with spending, getting by, or struggling, reflecting persistent economic anxiety [28:33].

Immigration and the Border

• Increasing Importance:
  Republicans are trusted more than Democrats (R+13), but Brent doubts the issue will drive the overall election.
• Leadership Moves:
  Trump’s recent personnel changes signal the GOP is still focused on border security.

Out-of-Touch Republicans?

• Perceptions:
  1 in 3 Americans see Republicans as out of touch, compared to 1 in 5 for Democrats [32:00].
• Vision vs. Opposition:
  Only 28% of people say Republicans offer a clear vision, while even fewer (11%) say that about Democrats. Many voters see both parties as driven by opposing the other side rather than offering solutions.

AI and Technological Anxiety

• Widespread Skepticism:
  56% of Americans see AI as a net negative. Only 42% of strong Republicans see it positively; independents are 60% negative.
  • “You go down a conspiratorial rabbit hole real fast…when you bring up the topic of AI and data centers.” – Brent [35:00]
  • 62% believe AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates. [35:30]
• Desire for Leadership:
  67% say it’s important for the US to lead on AI, but most are “absolutely terrified” of consequences [36:44].
• Policy Disconnect:
  Brent notes state-level GOP is much more skeptical of AI than the Trump administration or federal Republicans.

Iran, Foreign Policy, and Military Perceptions

• Iran Strikes Public Support:
  Slight majority support (50–45), highly partisan split (95% support among strong Republicans, 13% among strong Democrats).
• Nuclear Threat Dismissed:
  Only 28% are “extremely” concerned about Iran’s nuclear capacity [40:30].
• Military Readiness:
  57% are confident in US military readiness – lower than expected for a conflict with Iran [41:20].

SAVE Act and Voter ID

• Strong Public Support:
  SAVE Act (election security/voter ID) enjoys 58% overall support; 67% among key midterm independents [43:08].
• GOP Roadblock:
  “There’s no reason, there’s nothing that should stop the SAVE Act from passing…[but] it is Republicans from red states who are the ones opposing this.” – Ryan [43:13]

Populism, Corporations, and Regulatory Sentiment

• Distrust of Corporate America:
  79% distrust corporate intentions, 87% believe corporations are profit-driven [44:50].
• Regulatory Shift:
  58% think regulations are necessary to protect workers/consumers (including nearly half of strong Republicans).
  • “Ideology is now a circle, not a spectrum.” – Brent [45:41]
• Populist Momentum:
  Brent shares a focus group anecdote: even hardcore Republicans use phrases like “now that we're in a post-capitalist society” [44:21].
  • “Trump has always had a better finger on the pulse of what people want than the Republican Party as a whole.” – Ryan [46:49]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Downward Momentum in Jobs:
  “Revised downward has become a new normal almost every month for the last two years.” – Ryan Graduski [05:00]

• On Black Lives and Crime Policy:
  “The best thing for a black American is a Republican district attorney. There’s no other way to say it.” – Ryan Graduski [13:40]

• On Trump’s Polling Floor:
  “Trump’s image is at a floor right now…It’s not going to go below, well below the high 30s, maybe.” – Brent Buchanan and Ryan Graduski [27:20–27:53]

• On “Threat to Democracy” Rhetoric:
  “I think it’s a catch all for giving them a better way to say I hate Trump and he terrifies me.” – Brent Buchanan [29:53]

• On AI and Job Losses:
  “62% of folks said it was going to eliminate more jobs than it creates.” – Brent Buchanan [35:30]

• On Populist Realignment:
  “Ideology is now a circle, not a spectrum.” – Brent Buchanan [45:41]

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Segment Timestamps

• Jobs & Economy Analysis: 03:21–16:30
• Crime, Prosecutors, and Community Health: 10:40–17:45
• Interview intro (Brent Buchanan): 21:50
• Midterms, Trump, and Party Dynamics: 22:04–31:10
• AI Fears: 34:07–36:44
• Iran and Foreign Policy: 39:11–41:39
• SAVE Act & Voter ID Sentiment: 42:13–43:13
• Populism and Corporations: 44:21–48:49

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Tone and Style

• Candid, numbers-driven, unapologetically right-of-center
• Mix of data deep dives, anecdotes, and direct language
• Frequent criticism of both parties; strong anti-elite and anti-corporate streak
• Populist, skeptical of big business and political establishments in both parties

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a richly detailed and provocative assessment of the shifting American political landscape through the midterm lens—focusing on voter anxieties around the economy, immigration, criminal justice, advanced technology, and the appeal of populist regulation. The exclusive polling insights from Signal Polling’s Brent Buchanan highlight misalignments between party strategy and grassroots opinion, helping explain the current volatile and unpredictable national political mood.

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For more Signal Polling data, visit: Cygnal on X / Website

Transcript

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[Ryan Graduski]

Happy Monday everybody. This is a numbers game with Ryan Graduski. I'm your host and honored to be here. We have a great guest today. One of the premier pollsters in the country is going to come up to talk about the midterms, how people and voters are feeling about Iran, about AI, about how working class voters feel about Trump. There's a lot of conversation going on whether or not he's lost his working class base. And if you didn't pay attention to the weekend episode, my brief weekend episode, Tony Gonzalez, the very, very disgraceful congressman from Texas, announced he was dropping his re election bid. I record a brief episode over the weekend. If you didn't maybe heard that discussing his announcement and what that could possibly mean and if there was any chance of him making a comeback. But goodbye and good riddance. Don't let the door hit you on the way out. But I'm very proud, by the way, of all the episodes I did about him that I, you know, work to try to apply pressure as much as possible. And I have done that with a few other elected officials who I feel like don't deserve the office. I have a, a deep dive coming about a Democratic candidate seeking elected office that should be out this week or early next. Last week was insane. It was a, it was a month long week. All the episodes I did, I felt I was constantly chasing the news stories. You had stories about Iran and Texas and Kristi Gnome being fired or demoted with Corey Lewandowski. I didn't even get to chance to really cover that one. And I can't. I mean the, everyone basically has heard what the story is. There's really no point of going to a deep dive. And Mark Wayne Mullen, center, Mark Wayne Mullen will be her replacement. I Don't know much about him, I've never spoken to him. I know that he's a favorite darling of the media. He's got an okay, actually a less than okay voting record in Congress on immigration. But the good thing is, is that he is excellent on interior enforcement and the border, which is primarily his job. So before we go to our interview, we need to get numbers behind two stories. One the media has picked up a lot about but is not giving a full story of or full picture of. And then the other one they totally ignored, which makes sense given what the contexts are. So the first one on the jobs number that came out on Friday morning, I'm not going to sugarcoat them, they are very bad. The jobs number in February were much weaker than expected. The economy lost 92000 jobs with the unemployment rate hitting 4 point. The jobs report from December was also revised. It looks like the economy lost 17,000 jobs during that month. Now being revised downward has become a new normal almost every month for the last two years. This predates Trump two years has been revised downwards. Even healthcare jobs in February lost and that's partially because of the strikes that were going on in the industry. But still healthcare has been the one, the one part of the economy that's been growing successfully. Manufacturing jobs shed. Manufacturing shed 12,000 jobs. We lost about 100,000 jobs from February, from February 2025 to February 2026, 89,000 manufacturing jobs since Liberation Day. The tariffs haven't done anything to revise our long standing decline in manufacturing jobs. And the US has shed 238,000 manufacturing, transportation and mining jobs over. Your blue collar jobs are not in good shape. It's not just white collar jobs. The U.S. has lost an average of 1,000 jobs per month over the last six months. The fourth of fifth month with a negative moving average. This is the 12th time this has happened in the economy since 1950. All other times were during a recession. Now a big part of our declining number came from government sector jobs. That is true. The US has shed 234,000 government sector jobs since January 2025. Something I didn't expect, but I read in the report was that we actually added and grew government jobs in February. Healthcare, which is heavily subsidized by the government. Construction, utilities and hospitalities are the only industries over the last year to see net positive job growth. There are a number of people holding. The number of people holding multiple jobs has fallen by 350 to 30,000 year to year, which is down for the third straight month. That's the first time that's happened since COVID since the lockdowns. Which would be good news if full time jobs weren't contracting at the same time. Full time jobs were down 1.1% from January 2025. EJ and Tony who I've had in this podcast with a government payroll fell by 6,000 while private sector payroll fell by 86,000. Job growth among native of born Americans is up only 128,000 jobs year to year. That's not great. Foreign born hiring is down 519,000. Non farm payroll jobs are up 129,000 year to year and employment is down 391,000. A crazy statistic that employment that I read while reading these numbers. Employment for white Americans is actually holding steady. The number the percentage of Americans white Americans who are unemployed actually went down from 3.8% in December 2025 to 3.7%. Almost everybody else it went up. It is. Black unemployment grew from 6% to 7.7, Asians from 3.2 to 4.8 and Latinos have remained steady at 5.2, though they were up last month from the month before but average out equally going back to January. Young people both with and without a college degree are seeing worse. The worst ramifications from the job market. Teenage unemployment went from 13 to nearly 15%. There were a few bright spots. A rare bright spot is that wage growth is remaining very healthy. At 3.8% it is growing. The wages are growing more than inflation. That's a good thing. You're beating on inflation with your numbers. Economic growth also remains very strong. Productivity is at 2.2% above the CBO's pre pandemic forecast and that comes despite the tariffs. Now so many economists said that the tariffs were going to slow down productivity to a screeching halt. That hasn't happened. They were completely wrong. They predicted that. Utterly wrong. There's a. There's a question that people in the media don't seem to be asking which is how much of economic growth is an expected job growth? More or less is should be linked to the change in the immigration numbers, the AI because we've seen a significant crackdown on immigration and you add AI to the equation and you kind of have to ask yourself how much job growth should we expect to see with limited population and a changing towards more mechanization? It's not being discussed enough. Aside from that, oil prices and gas prices have risen because of the war with Iran and according to Vanguard, a record breaking 6% of workers are dipping into their 401k plans, the plans that are administered by the company, and withdrawing from their retirement account. That's up from 4.8 in 2024 and from 2% before the pandemic. Look, you don't have to be NoDomas to know these numbers are not good for Republicans. They're not good for President Trump going into November. And it's not, I mean, there's no other way to say it. There's just no other way to say it. Democrats, of course, are all over the media blaming Trump and Republicans for this economic instability in the markets and the poor job numbers. And Republicans really have two months to see numbers change. Two months. You can make a direct by the correlation between the rising unemployment levels between Asians and Hispanics and their reversion back to the Democratic Party so much. This is pocketbook issues. And with crime being an all time low, we're going to get to crime in a second. There are few other things aside from culture war issues where Republicans can really lean to try to win people back. It puts them in a very dangerous situation. They really have two months to turn something around, get oil prices back down and get the economy moving and jobs hiring, because that's a big part of it. Now let's go to a story that I want to share with you from last week that was, you know, that was amazing, but it was in such a crazy news cycle. Well, Democrats would have never picked it up. I mean, absolutely never picked it up. But it didn't really make Republican media. There was a study published two weeks ago by. I'm going to mispronounce her name, but there is what Ponka Benksik from Vanderbilt University and Tyler Giles or Giles from Wellesley College. This study examined how local prosecutors improved public health. The paper investigated the casual relation between approaches taken by local criminal prosecution and district attorneys and community level mortality rates, especially in terms of how tough on crime Republican prosecutors fared compared to a more compassionate approach by Democratic prosecutors. The study found this using data from hundreds of closely contested partisan elections from 2010 to 2019 and a vote share regression discontinuality design. We find the narrow election of a Republican prosecutor reduces all cause mortality rates among young men ages 20 to 29 by 6.66%. This decline is driven predominantly by a reduction in firearm related deaths, including a large reduction in in firearm homicide among black men and a smaller reduction in firearm suicides and accidents, primarily among white men. Mechanism analysis indicates that increased prison based incapacitation explains about one third of the effect among black men and none of the effect among white men. Instead, the primary channel appears to be a substantial increase in criminal conviction rates across racial groups and crime types, which then reduces firearm access through legal restrictions on gun ownership of the conviction. This is such a validation for Republicans and conservatives who've been saying for so long that they're the, the most efficient thing you can do to stop crime is actually be harm on criminals. CNN obviously did not cover this, this, this investigation. I mean, Abby Phillips would have started screaming uncontrollably, interrupting everybody if there was even brought up and she would do that. The whole thing was fake. You know, but what the paper saying and what this, this is a very credible study. This is not a study by some right wing lunatic. The, the best thing for a black American is a Republican district attorney. There's no other way to say it. So few people in our inner cities are habitual criminals. They commit a majority of crimes even though they are a minuscule portion of the population. And for a decade plus they have plagued these inner cities, they have plagued these communities. By cracking down on those chosen few, primarily black and Latino, you dramatically increase the quality of life and life expectancy for all other members of that community. The same men who, people like Sunny Hostin from the View or Ashley Allison from CNN pretend to care about, they pretend like the lives of black Americans is their number one priority and then advocate in the next breath an abolition to the police or a reduction of the police or a Democrat district attorney get those same people they pretend to care about killed. I, I've been reading a book called Gods of New York by Jonathan Mahler and it discovers New York from 1986 to 1990. And it's, it's such a reminder, having grown up in that city at the time, that Rudy Giuliani was going in to save it right before he got sworn in and became mayor, that the group who benefited the most from Giuliani's mayorship, now everyone benefited, but the group that, that benefited the most were blacks in New York City, tens of thousands of whom possibly 20 to 30,000 if you look at the percentages of people dying in gun homicides were saved, their lives were saved because of Rudy Giuliani. And he will never get an ounce of credit for anything that he did. And he's just the most, I think, prolific example of a mayor of a very, of the biggest city, not a very big city, but a big city who advocated for policies that the media screamed their head off were racist. You know, he wasn't da. Of course he was federal prosecutor then obviously mayor. But not only did he not win the black vote, he will spend. They will, they will deem him as a racist even after he goes to his grave that he was a mean person who, who really picked on black people and then sold Times Square to Disney. But the, but the people who promote the weak on crime policy in opposition to Giuliani, in opposition to Republican DAs across the country, they're the ones who really don't care about the lives of working class people and primarily of black people. They don't care. They're indifferent to the outcomes so long as the policies they support are enacted because it feels good. It's pretend caring. It's pretend. You know that you're a member of the working class. You're an advocate for the black community. You get to sit there and fake it. So the next time you're in casual conversation with mixed company and this is brought up Vanderbilt University and Wesley University, electing a Republican DA reduces black homicides by almost 7%. I think it's really important that people know that and that the especially woke wine moms who spend their whole day screeching at Republicans who and that they are really fighting against racism hear that and know that. Okay, next up, let's get to our interview about polling in the midterms. It's an exclusive interview for my audience. No one is getting this. It's so exciting. That's coming up next. Say tuned.

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[Ryan Graduski]

Brent Buchanan is the president of Signal Polling, an amazing polling company. He has a exclusive poll on the midterm elections and some other big policy questions. Brent, thank you for being here and giving my audience the exclusive.

[Brent Buchanan]

Yeah, great to be back, Brian.

[Ryan Graduski]

Okay, so first questions first, how is it looking for Republicans in the midterms and how does this Compare to the 2018 midterm?

[Brent Buchanan]

Yeah, I love that you framed it this way because too often we just say, well, how did this change from last month as opposed to how does this look compared to the 22 midterm or the 2018 midterm? And if we look back at 2018 as the frame, which was not a great year for Republicans, we also have to remember that was at the end of a redistricting decade and so a lot had changed in those seats over that time. So back then it was anywhere from Democrats plus 7 to Democrats plus 13 at this stage. And Democrats went on to win the House by about nine points in the actual vote. So it kind of landed right in the middle of that number. And right now we have Democrats with a four point lead, 49 to 45, which is a point better for them than February. But all polls have a margin of error. This one's around 2%, which is a very low margin. But aligning in all of this too, is that Republicans at 45% ballot share on the generic ballots, actually the highest we've had them since October.

[Ryan Graduski]

What do you attribute that to in the sense that Republicans, I mean Democrats have a lead, but it's not this monster tidal wave of a lead compared to 2018. What groups are not breaking their way that used to break their way?

[Brent Buchanan]

Well, the, the diploma divide which I wrote about in my book. And it's not, I didn't come up with the name or the concept, but I just do believe it's been a big factor in elections. We've actually seen non college educated voters moving away from Republicans for about the last six months and college educated voters moving towards Republicans, which if it happened in a single month, I would not have read into it. But the fact that it had been a trend over the last six months made me believe there was something to it. That trend reversed this month. Non college educated voters came home to Republicans. College educated voters went from an 11 point advantage for Democrats in February to a 21 point advantage for Democrats in just one month. So we're kind of getting back to what I would say is stasis, even though the top line number doesn't really look like it's moved. The, what's interesting is that, you know, a lot of our seats that we need to win are suburban House districts and so they're more heavily weighted towards college educated voters. And that's something we're definitely going to be watching as, as the election progresses. But let's all keep in mind that November is a political eternity from now.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, well, and that's why so many people were in the 2022 election when Republicans didn't do as well as they wanted to, even though they won the generic ballot. It's just because the assortment of where our voters were, you know, they were Republicans did much better in the city than they ever had, but not enough to win any of the city seats. But we're losing the suburban seats because of the college vote. How is Trump standing right now? What's his favorability at?

[Brent Buchanan]

Well, before we dig into Trump's favorability, let's, let's talk about the, the Republican trickle as opposed to the Republican wave in 22. And our research after the fact in the election found that and we looked at what state level Republicans were spending on ads like what were their messages and what were federal Republicans spending on their ads from a message perspective. And they were inverted of what they should have been. All the state level Republicans were talking about inflation and economy and all the federal level Republicans were talking about crime and public safety and it should have been the inverse. And I think one of the largest problems that Democrats have in this election is a trust in that they can actually do something. Right now the bulk of their position on the ballot is built on the fact that people hate Donald Trump and it's not built on the fact that people trust Republicans. And that is what we saw as a failure in 2022 midterms. We kept saying gas is expensive and groceries are expensive. And voters decided at the end of the day their response was going to be no duh, Sherlock, but they offered no plan. And, and that's really what I see happening with the Democrats now. So, so to answer the, the Trump question, you know, we have him at 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable. Trump is pretty much outside of his honeymoon, coming off of running against one of the worst candidates ever in Kamala Harris and the second worst in Joe Biden in 2024. This is a pretty normal number for Trump's favorability. And, and if you look at the intensity gap, which is the very unfavorable versus very favorable, that has been really stable over time. And it's a metric that we look at and say he's got a floor. So, yes, you may see some movement at the top line level on his image, but I would say that Trump's image is at a floor right now. The problem is that Republicans in Congress are at 41 favorable, 55 unfavorable.

[Ryan Graduski]

That's actually pretty good for Republicans in Congress because, I mean, it also concerns

[Brent Buchanan]

me a little bit because we are the ones with the keys.

[Ryan Graduski]

No, of course, of course. And I want, I think the floor is really important for Trump because Trump's floor kind of reminds me of Obama's floor in a certain way. Unlike Bush and unlike Biden, I don't know if Biden ever got to the 20s. Bush definitely got to the 20s. Biden, if he didn't get to the 20s, got to the very low 30s. At some points in the polling is you really think of this as the floor. It's not going to go below, well below the high 30s, maybe. Like, there's margins of error for every poll. So let's say 39, 38, whatever. But between 38 and 40, 42, 43, that's his basically floors. What you think?

[Brent Buchanan]

I believe so. And I also think that starting a couple of cycles ago, presidential approval doesn't necessarily equate to electoral victory or loss, because if that metric still had the predictive power that it had, say, 20, 40, 50 years ago, then, you know, had it been a Biden Trump election, that, that Trump should have won the national vote by 15 points. And we just know that that's asinine to think that that would have been the case.

[Ryan Graduski]

What I found interesting in your poll also was the economy was a lot lower in importance than I thought it would be. What are the most important issues for voters?

[Brent Buchanan]

Well, it's, it's still there at towards the top, but threats to democracy, which is just a dog whistle for Trump, derangement syndrome, has now taken over the top. And they really look past. And you can go to our website. This data is not up yet, but it will be later this week. This is an exclusive to y' all to start Cygn Ale. You know, you'll, you'll see even if you look at our February survey, that inflation, economy, threats to democracy, immigration kind of popping up here and they're all just kind of flirt in the upper teens for who's going to be first, second and third. But when you dig deeper, and this is why a top issue question can be helpful, but it's not directional. We have 76% of folks who say that they're either being careful with their spending, just getting by or struggling. 76%. And Trump really needs to be able to close this gap between his economic promises and what people are feeling in their wallet. So yes, they're not saying it's the most important, but when you ask them about it, there's some, some red lights we need to pay attention to there.

[Ryan Graduski]

What can I, and this is going to ask a dumb question and I should ask a liberal this, but what is the threat to democracy? Like what, what does that like, what is you, what is the threat? I don't, I don't, I really don't know.

[Brent Buchanan]

I think it's a catch all for giving them a, a better way to say I hate Trump and he terrifies me.

[Ryan Graduski]

Now, immigration and border security is also ticking higher, which is that all Democrats now just angry about Minneapolis that are taking it higher or is it just Republicans who are wanting Trump to do more when it comes to immigration?

[Brent Buchanan]

You know, it's, it's hard to say when, when folks kind of sort in and out a point or two here and there, month to month. But what, what I do know is when you ask voters who, which party they trust on immigration, we're at 50% and Democrats are at 37. So it's an R +13 issue. So I, I don't think it's a big enough salient issue to make a huge difference in the election. And I also believe that it's one of the reasons that, that Donald Trump made the change with, you know, putting our client Senator Mark Wayne Mullen in there and moving gnome on is he knows the issue still needs to be addressed. I forget which poll it was that we did this year, but we asked somebody if it's still a problem and it's still very much a problem in the eyes of voters. He just needs somebody that's not dramatic to go in there.

[Ryan Graduski]

And yeah, it doesn't have a million dollar hair piece budget.

[Brent Buchanan]

I, I could use one of those.

[Ryan Graduski]

Okay. So one of the most concerning things from analysis from the poll that was like a glaring red light for Republicans that I saw from your poll is that 1 in 3Americans say Republicans are out of touch compared to only one in five for Democrats. This is a similar result, you see to a lot of other polls. It Wasn't in your poll that I remember seeing it. But they say, is Trump have your priorities? And a lot of people say no focusing a lot on foreign policy, having cartoonish podcasters get a lot of attention representing the Republican Party. What is it? And maybe they didn't describe it. Did, did, did people say, here's what I wish they'd actually focus on, and what are they kind of distracted with?

[Brent Buchanan]

We, we didn't ask those questions in this survey because we tend to touch on a lot of subjects, maybe a couple inches. Then what is your analysis digging down? But I, I think you have to look at that question in light of another question we ask, which is do which party has a clear and compelling vision or which party is just focused on opposing the other side? And if you look at it through that Lens, you have 28% of folks say Republicans have a clear, compelling vision. Only 11% say that about Democrats. 27% say Republicans are mostly just focused on opposing Democrats rather than offering solutions, compared to 40% saying that Democrats only are opposing Trump. So this focused on opposing, not offering solutions number is way worse for Democrats. And that's where I go back to. They may be on track for a trickle as opposed to a wave because they're saying all the things that people feel, but not connecting the last mile of actually there being trust that they could do something about it.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, there's also less swing states than there used to be, too. I mean, there's not as many swing states as swing seats, rather as there was in 2018. No, I just find it fascinating, especially as you see in other polls on yours, people say Trump's spending too much time on foreign policy, not enough on domestic policy. And, you know, there are a lot of concerns that people have over the, over the current state of the country. All right, this is a question that has nothing to do with the election. But I am completely obsessed with how people feel about AI. I have been very much of the consensus that people want more regulations on the industry. They don't view it as the Internet. They don't view it as something that's just going to, you know, change the economy, but not shut it down. People, if you look at every sphere or almost every sphere that AI is touching right now, there's negative connotations around it. Does it make you smarter or critically think? Does it kind of replace your job? Did it make, can it make errors around military decisions? How do people, Americans feel about AI right now?

[Brent Buchanan]

The Internet didn't come on us this quick like we have to remember it's only been a few years since the first Jet GPT, which was maybe okay enough to write two paragraphs for you for a 10th grade writing assignment. So this technological change is drastic, but there was also nothing really physical necessary for the Internet to come in, unlike data centers. And you can't really separate out AI from data centers in the mind of voters at all, even though data centers have been around forever. And. And then you throw a partisan problem into this mix, which is now, AI is viewed from a partisan lens so strongly Republican voters are say it AI is 42% of net positive, 40% of net negative. Which is not something I would write home about and say, look at this,

[Ryan Graduski]

that's not great at all.

[Brent Buchanan]

It only gets worse from there. Soft Republicans 50% negative, independents 60% negative. Overall it's 56% negative. We asked a question last month about AI and jobs. Will it create more jobs than it eliminates or will it eliminate more jobs than it creates? 62% of folks said it was going to eliminate more jobs than it creates in that survey. We also asked what do data centers do? And I see this come out in focus groups all the time. You go down a conspiratorial rabbit hole real fast in a focus group when you bring up the topic of AI and data centers. And so if people are concerned that this is going to eliminate their jobs and they believe that it is a net negative for society, they're not seeing the positive benefits for them. They see these massive buildings going up that they see as a scourge on their neighborhood, their community, making their power more expensive. It's a really challenging issue landscape. And it's because it's come on so fast comparatively to other technological transformations. I mean, I was talking with somebody this week and basically, basically said, imagine going back to an agrarian society and bringing in John Deere tractors. Like that is essentially the speed at which this has gone. We didn't go to horse drawn, you know, slightly motor powered. We went straight from the mule to the John Deere tractor with, with this AI issue. But you may be bringing up this data point, so I, I don't want to take it out of your mouth, but 67% of folks said it's important for the US to lead on AI. So like there are some positive aspects there of like they know we need to do something about it. They're just absolutely terrified of it.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, and here's what. Okay, so this is. I'm so glad you brought up the strong Republican point because I was with members of the administration, top members, administration. And I was saying that they're, they, they, they really fundamentally believe that AI is going to create millions of jobs, that it's going to eliminate the national debt. It is so bullish that it sounds a lot like the let's open the market to China people in the 90s. Like, there is no downside. There is only upside. They're only selling you upside. And I have heard hopes and dreams before and they have very rarely ever worked out. And what you're seeing at the state level among state Republicans is the, a total opposite. You know, for as much as the talking point among Republicans is it's either California or Washington, D.C. deciding rules around AI. Florida DeSantis is majorly cracking down. AI, Texas is doing it. Tennessee is doing it. That Utah is going far above and beyond, especially around children's protection, children's safety. So at the state level, you have a remarkably different Republican Party than you do at the Trump administration level. And I tried desperately to tell Republican senators and congressmen, you need to attach some AI policy. The polling is not what you think it is and you're not even asking it. And what the Democrats are doing is, hey, I mean, I was, I have Ro Khanna on this podcast and Ro Khanna said we need a general wealth tax on AI to redistribute that money to voters. Now, I think that's just, you know, you're open to our socialism. That's just how socialism will come to you. It's not going to be like the nice kind of redistribution like Alaska or Norway. It's going to be really aggressive. But Republicans aren't even, they're, they're like the administration's making the, making the rules around AI. This is the federal level, not the state level. We're just following through. And I think it's such a mistake. And I'm so glad you included this question. Okay, let's talk about Iran, because it's obviously the news that's affecting oil prices, affecting everything. How are voters feeling about the Iran attacks on Iran?

[Brent Buchanan]

We have it right side up. Barely 50 support, 45% opposition. Our survey went into the field. Let me look at my calendar here on Tuesday. So the, the strikes had been happening for multiple days and wall to walk, wall to wall coverage of the news. But there's a strong partisan divide, as you would expect. Strong Republicans, 95% support, all the way down to strong Democrats at not zero, but 13% support. And interestingly, there are more Democrats who support the strikes than Republicans. Who oppose it, which is how you end up with a, you know, a net plus four support number. And, and there's a big gender gap here too, a 14 point gap between men and women, which part of that is there's a partisan gap between men and women, but this is larger than the partisan gap is. And, and then when we asked about some of the questions, trying to understand, you know, do Americans understand the threat that Iran posed and, and related to the nuclear threat specifically, you know, we had 75% at least somewhat concerned, but only 28% extremely concerned. So the narrative of taking out the nukes or the nuclear threat that may come from Iran just kind of falls flat. People don't believe that that is a pressing threat. And then we also asked if people believe America has the readiness and strength and its military necessary. And only 57% of folks were extremely or very confident in our military readiness. Be very interested to know if this goes well over the next month. And we ask the same question again about military readiness.

[Ryan Graduski]

If that number rises, Iran's not China. Like, I mean, like let's, I mean let's have a realistic moment, everybody. That's crazy. That is, I mean people, I think being overly pessimistic about our abilities. Now, I didn't ask you this question in my email, but I'm just wondering if you could jog your memory. How did this compare in your memory to Venezuela? Because that was flawless. Our operation Venezuela was literally flawless. There was 10 out of 10 no mistakes made. Do you was for people. Do you remember if voters were more positive about that?

[Brent Buchanan]

Only slightly. Our survey, we have this amazing pent signal to put a poll in the field right as a massive world or national event occurs. This is the first one where we put it in the field slightly after it occurred.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. Okay. Well, I guess, I think, I imagine a lot of foreign policy stuff really does relate to a large portion. How do you feel about Trump? If you like Trump, you like the foreign policy. If you don't like when you don't like the foreign policy. Okay, two more quick questions that I want to get to. One is the SAVE Act. I get more emails from my listeners about the SAVE act than anything else. They are on board. They that's all they want to talk about. And voter ID is very popular. Voters, how does the Save act kind of work with voters? How do they feel about blows my

[Brent Buchanan]

mind that the SAVE act does not get passed and it's our people standing in the way. I really felt like Ken Paxton made a very selfless Move in saying, yeah, I'll get out if you nuke the filibuster and pass the SAVE Act. And I don't know if that was necessarily a, I'm, I'm selflessly sacrificing myself to get the SAVE act passed or it was, I'm going to call your bluff, senator thing on this issue because it has 58% support independence. The numbers basically in that same spot. The intensity behind the support is incredibly strong, even among independents. It's got 29% support among soft Democrats, people who are unsure on the, on the generic ballot. So the key group that Republicans need to win in the midterms are 67% support of the SAVE Act. So this is a SAVE act, super popular.

[Ryan Graduski]

There's no reason, there's nothing that should stop the sayback from passing.

[Brent Buchanan]

Yes.

[Ryan Graduski]

Like, I mean, yeah, obviously the only thing stopping us is our politicians. But I'm talking as far as. Yeah, because it makes no sense. Because I mean all the fear that women who get married can't get to vote some, I mean, it's nonsensical. It breaks apart, it falls apart in five seconds flat. And it is Republican Republicans from red states who are the ones who are opposing this, this thing. It's, it's quite crazy. And it's the number one thing my voters are interested in and ask about and why isn't this passing? Okay, one other final question. Because it comes the time where Democrats are really searching. They're not in the middle of it. They are towards the end, I would say, of searching for their identity that they're going to lead to 20, 28 and it is full blown tax the rich, corporations, economic populism, they're going to quadruple down it. You know, they keep saying woke is dead, which it's really not. But WOKE is dead where all the economic populism. Now, how are voters feeling about big companies? Big corporations going into the midterms with this understanding that Democrats are really looking at economic populism as their, as their Trojan horse to victory.

[Brent Buchanan]

Since I've numbered your audience to death, I'll start with a story. I was doing focus groups in January for corporate clients. And when you do focus groups, what makes a good focus group is what makes a good poll. You've got a representative group of whoever you're trying to understand in the sample and you get something called a recruitment grid. And so it's literally like this big 11 by 17 printout of, you know, Jane is this. And she is a super strong Republican and pro Trump and like, however she answered all the questions, our most Republican woman in this particular group that I was moderating started a sentence with this, well, you know, now that we're in a post capitalist society and I had to go back and look at the grid and I'm like, did I get the wrong person here that just said that? And I'm like, nope. I see her name tag and I see her response here. And it really, I had been feeling this for a while among Republican voters that I grew up and you probably grew up where politics was like this line of ideology and now we're a circle of ideology. And there is a bipartisan push for this populism where you've got 58% of folks saying regulations are necessary to protect workers and consumers. And the way we frame this question was that it's either to protect that or that they create unnecessary burdens. So those are your two response options with intensity involved in them. Listen to this. Strong Republicans, 45% necessary, 48% burdensome. Like, do I even need to go on literally the other aspects of the ideology? Because, because ideology is now a circle, not a spectrum. And then we ask people, do you trust corporate intentions? 79% distrust corporations intentions. We asked about their motives. 87% of said corporations are mainly looking out for their own profits, including 77% of our strongest Republicans. And then we, we broke this out into, you know, do health insurance companies deny claims for profit? That's 90% of people believe that are pharmaceutical companies maximizing profits or making money to fund research. 82% say it's too, it's a profit motive. You know, our energy companies taking advantage advantage of consumers. 69% said, yes, like this, this Republican traditional pro business deregulation brand is really colliding with the public that is overwhelmingly distrustful of corporations and they think that regulation is necessary.

[Ryan Graduski]

You are blowing my mind now because when Trump went to Congress and asked for the credit card cap and Republicans said, quote, I think it was a Republican senator said, stop with this economic upon this populist shit. Trump has always had a better finger on the pulse of what the people want than the Republican Party as a whole. And it's too such. I have felt this, I have felt that there's this level of distrust. And one day I was talking to one of my friends who's, I mean, she's like, Ms. Capitalism USA. Businesses should have no regulations. And she said to me, you know, I get a funny feeling that there's so much hatred towards corporations. Luigi Man's going to get off. It's going to be to that degree of this is how much we hate corporations right now. And that is, and that is why in this weird sense that kind of Trump since 2016, especially in 2016 kind of showed the light and very few Republicans ever followed. And it will be very curious in my mind if Steve Bennet runs for president on a pro economic populist position. I haven't talked to Stephen in a very long time but there are rumors I can I tell you a quick, quick story really quickly? I know we have to go but it's about, it's about listening to people, ordinary Americans do the do the survey. It was in all in 2015. I got invited to it and it was about the Republicans running for president and they were showing one by one as Rand Paul and it was Donald Trump. And yeah and then they brought up Ted Cruz and this one woman die hard Republic primary voter said I don't know what it is about him but I would not never let him around my children. And I was like he doesn't have a prayer. I literally says that he doesn't have a rare winning this election if that's your natural instinct. These focus groups are so fascinating for that reason. They're so interesting hearing people's raw take on stuff.

[Brent Buchanan]

Well remember this and we can end on this note. There were a lot of Trump 24 mom, Donnie 25 voters and that voter base is only going to grow.

[Ryan Graduski]

Where people go to read more about Signal what you guys do. It's such a great polling company. You do fantastic work.

[Brent Buchanan]

Yeah. And people only get to see about 3% of the work we do is public. The other 97% are for corporations and candidates and otherwise. But yeah, on X at Signal, C Y G N A L. Our website is Cygn al and we've got you know, video clips and the like and know shoot us a note if you're not seeing something that we should cover that would be fascinating to put in our next survey.

[Ryan Graduski]

Thank you so much for coming on this podcast. I really appreciate it. Check out Signal. Fantastic work. Thank you so much.

[Brent Buchanan]

Thanks Ryan.

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[Ryan Graduski]

Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryanumbers plural numbers game podcast.com this first question comes from Ryan. He says not a true Ask Me Anything, but I did want to point out that on your list of books you're reading, you do not mention books. Buck Sexton's book. Have to keep him in mind. The funny thing is that Buck texted my dad and told him about his book and he didn't reach out to me and I didn't know it was coming out until I already came out. So I am very behind on my reading. I get very little time to read. Buck's book will get on my reading list. I will get to it. I'm sure it's a great book. I haven't read it yet. He didn't even send me a free copy. You would think. But no, it doesn't matter. It's okay. I'll buy my version. I'm sure it's really good, he said. Perhaps you've already read it or working through it. Some chapters are a little long so it's tough to consume for a busy person, content is awesome. Might not be something you can critically review. I would be honest with people about what I learned. Here's the problem with Politico reading political books because they're dated. Unlike history books, which you can learn a lot from. The New York book I'm learning a lot from, I kind of know a lot of the statistics already. Douglas Murray's book, which is great. His last few books I kind of knew almost all the information by the time I was reading it. It was kind of dated. So that's something about political books for me. I love campaign trail books. I've read every 2024, every 2020, every 2016 book that there is to read. I love a campaign book, but I kind of know all this about statistics or most of the time sometimes I learn stuff. Love your show. Appreciate your take on Iran. I was torn as well. I'm struggling now. Given all that they've done for 40 plus years, the rationale is too muddy. Keep up the great work. Thank you so much, Ryan. I appreciate that. Last question for the podcast today comes from Mary. She says wondering if you or anyone else has done analysis on the current flight from blue states to red states and how it compares to white flight from the 60s and 70s of people fleeing East Germany, Cuba, North Korea to South Korea. Republicans are trying to win back these cities or you're going to continue to see a spiral of despair and probably continue to elect these socialist nut jobs. Mary so yeah, the New York Times, of all places, did a fantastic write up about people fleeing and where they moved to. And they not only moved, they not only looked at states, but they looked at counties. And it is a great assortment going on. It's kind of why Republicans used to have city council seats or state legislative seats like in Milwaukee, and they don't anymore because blue counties attract now blue voters and red counties attract red voters. That's why you're seeing so many Republicans from California going to Denton and Collin County, Texas and not Dallas county proper. Maybe there's a few because there's like a night one like nice Republican neighborhood in Dallas. But and they're going to the suburbs are in Denton and Collin county that are Republican. And I think you're pricing the same thing for Republicans from New York and New Jersey going to Florida. It's not everyone going to Florida and jacking up. The Republican registration is not just organically, you know, the Republican restoration being jacked up rather is not just native Floridians. It's a lot of moving there who are Republican. That being said, I wish that there was a conversation happening among Republicans who are moving and saying to them, you know guys, a couple of you people, move to Florida, go to Pennsylvania, go to North Carolina, start patting those other swing states, go to Georgia, don't give it all to Florida. But the New York Times article on this, it's a very, it's a interactive graphic. It's really, really good. They do a better job describing that. I can. You can really look up who's moving what and where. So check that out. All right guys, this that's this episode of this podcast. Thank you so much for listening. If you like this episode and you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast. Wherever you get your podcast, give me

[Brent Buchanan]

a five star review.

[Ryan Graduski]

It does help promote the podcast and Please subscribe on YouTube. I I will talk to you guys on Wednesday. Have a great day.

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