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Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Midterms – EXCLUSIVE Look at Poll on Trump, AI Fears, and Voter Populism
Date: March 9, 2026
Host: Ryan Graduski
Guest: Brent Buchanan, President of Signal Polling

Overview

This episode provides an in-depth look at new polling data on the 2026 midterms, exploring how voters feel about economic trends, Trump’s position, AI, populism, immigration, crime, and other major issues shaping the current political climate. Host Ryan Graduski is joined by Brent Buchanan (Signal Polling) for an exclusive breakdown of polling insights affecting both parties as the November midterms approach.

Key Segments and Insights

1. Economic Trends and Jobs Numbers

[03:21 – 16:30]

• Unfavorable Jobs Report:
  February saw the U.S. lose 92,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate at 4%. December’s data was also revised downward. Manufacturing jobs declined sharply—89,000 lost since February 2025.
• Revision Trend:
  “Being revised downward has become a new normal almost every month for the last two years.” – Ryan Graduski [05:00]
• Manufacturing/Blue Collar Decline:
  Manufacturing, transportation, and mining jobs fell by 238,000 over the year. Native-born U.S. job growth is anemic (+128,000), while foreign-born hiring is down more than half a million.
• Demographic Unemployment Gaps:
  Asian and Black unemployment rates have substantially increased, while white unemployment decreased slightly. Teenage unemployment now near 15%.
• Retirement Worries:
  Record 6% of workers are tapping 401k plans for hardship withdrawals—“That’s up from 4.8 in 2024 and from 2% before the pandemic.” [07:55]
• Political Impact:
  “You don’t have to be NoDomas to know these numbers are not good for Republicans.” – Ryan [08:10]
• Wage and Productivity Bright Spots:
  Wages are up 3.8%, productivity is strong at 2.2% above pre-pandemic forecasts, outpacing inflation.

2. Crime and Prosecutor Study

[10:40 – 17:45]

• Vanderbilt Study on Prosecutors:
  A new study found electing a Republican prosecutor reduces all-cause mortality rates among young men (ages 20–29) by 6.66%, primarily by cutting firearm-related deaths, especially among Black men.
• Implications:
  “The best thing for a Black American is a Republican district attorney. There’s no other way to say it.” – Ryan [13:40]
• Policy Claims:
  This supports conservative claims: tough-on-crime policies save lives in high-crime areas, challenging media narratives.

3. Midterm Polling Deep Dive with Brent Buchanan (Signal Polling)

[21:50 – 49:37]

State of the Midterms

• Democratic Lead Shrinking:
  Democrats currently lead congressional generic ballot by 4 points (49–45). This is narrower than their 2018 advantage (D+7 to D+13 at the same stage), which led to a 9-point popular vote win.
• Republican Base Movement:
  Non-college voters had drifted from GOP over six months but came “home” in the latest survey; meanwhile, the college-educated tilt toward Democrats widened rapidly this month.
• Urban/Suburban Dynamics:
  Republican urban gains aren’t yet enough to flip city seats, while suburban (college-educated) seats remain challenging.

Trump’s Standing

• Favorable Ratings:
  Trump’s favorability: 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable. “Trump’s image is at a floor right now.” – Brent Buchanan [27:20]
• Comparison to Past Presidents:
  “Unlike Bush and unlike Biden…between 38 and 43, that’s his basically floor.” – Ryan [27:25]
• Congressional GOP:
  Republicans in Congress polling at 41% favorable, 55% unfavorable—which Brent calls “pretty good” relative to expectations.

Voter Priorities and Issue Salience

• Top Issues:
  “Threats to democracy” now ranks as the most important issue—seen by Brent as shorthand for “I hate Trump and he terrifies me.” [29:53]
  • Economy, inflation, and immigration follow, but no one issue dominates.
  • 76% say they’re careful with spending, getting by, or struggling, reflecting persistent economic anxiety [28:33].

Immigration and the Border

• Increasing Importance:
  Republicans are trusted more than Democrats (R+13), but Brent doubts the issue will drive the overall election.
• Leadership Moves:
  Trump’s recent personnel changes signal the GOP is still focused on border security.

Out-of-Touch Republicans?

• Perceptions:
  1 in 3 Americans see Republicans as out of touch, compared to 1 in 5 for Democrats [32:00].
• Vision vs. Opposition:
  Only 28% of people say Republicans offer a clear vision, while even fewer (11%) say that about Democrats. Many voters see both parties as driven by opposing the other side rather than offering solutions.

AI and Technological Anxiety

• Widespread Skepticism:
  56% of Americans see AI as a net negative. Only 42% of strong Republicans see it positively; independents are 60% negative.
  • “You go down a conspiratorial rabbit hole real fast…when you bring up the topic of AI and data centers.” – Brent [35:00]
  • 62% believe AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates. [35:30]
• Desire for Leadership:
  67% say it’s important for the US to lead on AI, but most are “absolutely terrified” of consequences [36:44].
• Policy Disconnect:
  Brent notes state-level GOP is much more skeptical of AI than the Trump administration or federal Republicans.

Iran, Foreign Policy, and Military Perceptions

• Iran Strikes Public Support:
  Slight majority support (50–45), highly partisan split (95% support among strong Republicans, 13% among strong Democrats).
• Nuclear Threat Dismissed:
  Only 28% are “extremely” concerned about Iran’s nuclear capacity [40:30].
• Military Readiness:
  57% are confident in US military readiness – lower than expected for a conflict with Iran [41:20].

SAVE Act and Voter ID

• Strong Public Support:
  SAVE Act (election security/voter ID) enjoys 58% overall support; 67% among key midterm independents [43:08].
• GOP Roadblock:
  “There’s no reason, there’s nothing that should stop the SAVE Act from passing…[but] it is Republicans from red states who are the ones opposing this.” – Ryan [43:13]

Populism, Corporations, and Regulatory Sentiment

• Distrust of Corporate America:
  79% distrust corporate intentions, 87% believe corporations are profit-driven [44:50].
• Regulatory Shift:
  58% think regulations are necessary to protect workers/consumers (including nearly half of strong Republicans).
  • “Ideology is now a circle, not a spectrum.” – Brent [45:41]
• Populist Momentum:
  Brent shares a focus group anecdote: even hardcore Republicans use phrases like “now that we're in a post-capitalist society” [44:21].
  • “Trump has always had a better finger on the pulse of what people want than the Republican Party as a whole.” – Ryan [46:49]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Downward Momentum in Jobs:
  “Revised downward has become a new normal almost every month for the last two years.” – Ryan Graduski [05:00]

• On Black Lives and Crime Policy:
  “The best thing for a black American is a Republican district attorney. There’s no other way to say it.” – Ryan Graduski [13:40]

• On Trump’s Polling Floor:
  “Trump’s image is at a floor right now…It’s not going to go below, well below the high 30s, maybe.” – Brent Buchanan and Ryan Graduski [27:20–27:53]

• On “Threat to Democracy” Rhetoric:
  “I think it’s a catch all for giving them a better way to say I hate Trump and he terrifies me.” – Brent Buchanan [29:53]

• On AI and Job Losses:
  “62% of folks said it was going to eliminate more jobs than it creates.” – Brent Buchanan [35:30]

• On Populist Realignment:
  “Ideology is now a circle, not a spectrum.” – Brent Buchanan [45:41]

Segment Timestamps

• Jobs & Economy Analysis: 03:21–16:30
• Crime, Prosecutors, and Community Health: 10:40–17:45
• Interview intro (Brent Buchanan): 21:50
• Midterms, Trump, and Party Dynamics: 22:04–31:10
• AI Fears: 34:07–36:44
• Iran and Foreign Policy: 39:11–41:39
• SAVE Act & Voter ID Sentiment: 42:13–43:13
• Populism and Corporations: 44:21–48:49

Tone and Style

• Candid, numbers-driven, unapologetically right-of-center
• Mix of data deep dives, anecdotes, and direct language
• Frequent criticism of both parties; strong anti-elite and anti-corporate streak
• Populist, skeptical of big business and political establishments in both parties

Conclusion

This episode delivers a richly detailed and provocative assessment of the shifting American political landscape through the midterm lens—focusing on voter anxieties around the economy, immigration, criminal justice, advanced technology, and the appeal of populist regulation. The exclusive polling insights from Signal Polling’s Brent Buchanan highlight misalignments between party strategy and grassroots opinion, helping explain the current volatile and unpredictable national political mood.

For more Signal Polling data, visit: Cygnal on X / Website