The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the New Jersey & Virginia Elections

Date: September 22, 2025
Host: (with focus on Ryan Graduski segment)
Podcast: iHeartPodcasts

Overview

In this “Numbers Game” segment of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, Ryan Graduski delivers an in-depth, numbers-driven analysis of the latest electoral dynamics in Virginia and New Jersey, with additional commentary on critical races in Pennsylvania. Graduski combines ground-level data, a sharp skeptical eye, and lively storytelling to break down early voting trends, campaign strategies, and their implications for the 2025 off-year elections.

He opens with a quick personal story from a West Coast trip, then pivots to review the unprecedented memorial for Charlie Kirk, reflections on its significance, and some pointed observations about political influencers’ conduct after Kirk’s death. The bulk of the episode focuses on state-level campaign and turnout analysis in Virginia and New Jersey—the emergent numbers, demographic breakdowns, and what it means for the parties involved. The episode closes with listener Q&A in the “Ask Me Anything” segment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cultural Observations from California (03:15–07:30)

• Graduski recounts his recent trip to California, noting how political conversations are assumed to be left-leaning in places like San Francisco.
  • People openly voice progressive opinions, assuming everyone around them agrees.
  • Amusing anecdotes highlight the disconnect between personal appearance and political assumptions.

Notable Quote

"Because I wasn't toothless or had a Confederate flag tattoo on my forehead, they presumed that I must have voted for Kamala. Like, it was very strange." — Ryan Graduski (06:00)

2. The Charlie Kirk Memorial & Conservative Movement Reflection (07:30–12:40)

• Graduski discusses the massive public turnout for Charlie Kirk’s memorial in Arizona.
  • He frames it as a generational event and notes its cultural implications, evoking comparisons to Elvis Presley and Martin Luther King Jr.’s public memorials.
  • Praises Erica Kirk (Charlie’s widow) for her moving speech and public grace.
  • Notes a growing conversation about Christian revivalism in America prompted by the service’s evangelical overtones.
  • Voices disappointment with “main character syndrome” exhibited by certain right-wing influencers using Kirk’s death for self-promotion.

Notable Quotes

"This Charlie Kirk's memorial is the largest private citizen’s memorial since the death of Elvis Presley." (08:40)
"Erica, his wife's speech was extremely moving... I think very highly of her... I'm kind of blown away by how talented she is as an orator." (09:45)
"There are a number of people who suffer from main character syndrome... They've used Charlie's death to talk about themselves. And I just find that so disappointing and so classless." (11:50)

3. Deep Dive: Virginia Elections & Early Voting Trends (12:50–20:12)

• Early Voting Dynamics

  • Virginia has six weeks of early voting—an arrangement Graduski critiques but accepts.
  • Unlike states like NJ and PA, Virginia does not register voters by party, so analyses rely on modeled data and voting history.

• Republican and Democratic Strongholds

  • Early voting in Republican-leaning counties (e.g., Highland, Goochland) is outpacing even the 2024 presidential turnout:
    “They are exceeding presidential turnout in the first day of early voting.” (14:45)
  • Democratic areas (e.g., Saint Petersburg City, Falls Church City) are underperforming, only reaching 30–34% of their 2024 turnout so far.

• Caution on Turnout Interpretation

  • Not all GOP areas are seeing robust turnout; e.g., Buchanan and Tazewell lag behind.

• On Ballot Stakes

  • Elections include Governor, Lieutenant Governor (on separate tickets), Attorney General, and full State Legislature.
  • Democrats have slim majorities and hope for a “wave” year; Republicans sense opportunity in shifting turnout patterns.

• Demographics & Ballot Requests

  • Mail-in ballots:
    • ~225,000 Democrats requested
    • 82,000 Republicans
    • 102,000 Independents
  • Black voter turnout, particularly among “low propensity” voters, is lagging—bad for Democrats.

• Strategic Campaign Focus

  • Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, “at the top of the ticket,” is running a campaign heavily focused on trans rights and gender in sports.
  • Sears is mobilizing the Trump base with cultural, not economic, arguments—possibly at the expense of independents.

Notable Quotes

“Republicans need to show up in much stronger numbers to counter what is happening in Northern Virginia and the... Richmond suburbs.” (16:20)
“Winsome Sears... is using cultural issues to get there, even if it's possibly at the expense of talking about pocketbook issues that independent voters really care about. We'll see if it works.” (16:54)

4. New Jersey Governor’s Race & Polling Surprises (20:22–28:50)

• National Stakes & Spending

  • DNC has poured $3M into the governor’s race, the DGA plans $20M for Democrat Mickey Sherrill—far outspending Republicans (~$1.5M so far).

• Debate Fireworks

  • Viral debate exchange: Jack Ciattarelli (R) calls out Mickey Sherrill (D) on insider activity and stock trades.
  • Graduski praises Ciattarelli’s comeback as a defining moment.
    • “That was probably the best comeback I have heard from a politician since Trump told Hillary that she would be in jail.” (22:28)

• Polling Shakeup

  • Internal poll from a historically accurate firm shows Ciattarelli leading by 1 point.
  • Graduski cautions: internal polls often favor the candidate commissioning them but notes the firm’s past accuracy.
  • Poll suggests Ciattarelli leads independents by 21 points—he’s skeptical (“Does this poll, is this poll accurate? 21 points a lot”. (25:30))

• Demographic Trends

  • Democrats still hold an 860k+ voter registration edge, but Republicans have made notable gains since 2021.
  • Ciattarelli is running a campaign focusing on state-specific issues—taxes, energy, local governance—while Sherrill is trying to “nationalize” the race, linking her opponent to unpopular GOP Congressional actions.

Notable Quotes

“Jack Chiarelli’s comeback was extremely good because it defined the Democrat in a way you want to ahead of the election, so close, where people are actually paying more attention.” (22:38)
“It looks like it’s going to be a closer election than Virginia. The polls showing it being closer objectively performed very strongly last time.” (27:20)

5. Pennsylvania Supreme Court Election—A Hidden National Story (28:50–30:49)

• The state’s Supreme Court, now heavily Democratic, will decide future redistricting after the 2030 Census—potentially affecting congressional seats for the coming decade.
• Republicans have improved in mail-in ballot requests, but Democrats retain the edge.
• Graduski teases a deeper analysis in a future episode.

Notable Quote

“This will be the last election that will really decide the state of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court going into 2030... The Supreme Court’s going to be very influential in deciding how many Democratic seats are drawn in the state. It is something to be mindful of and to pay attention to.” (29:50)

6. Ask Me Anything: The Future of Turning Point USA (34:01–37:37)

• Listener question: Who could succeed Charlie Kirk at Turning Point USA?
  • Graduski predicts Erica Kirk will become CEO but doubts anyone can replicate Kirk’s unique blend of organizing, debating, and media chops.
  • He emphasizes Kirk’s rare talent and ability to reach average and young Americans in a way no one else currently can.

Notable Quotes

“Charlie was really unique in the sense that he was a politico... made information palatable better than I certainly do.” (35:30)
“Who could replace him at all those things? I don't know. I don't think that there's anyone who could do everything that Charlie did because he was very talented in a number of places...” (36:00)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “Because I wasn't toothless or had a Confederate flag tattoo on my forehead, they presumed that I must have voted for Kamala.” — Ryan Graduski (06:00)
• “This Charlie Kirk's memorial is the largest private citizen’s memorial since the death of Elvis Presley.” (08:40)
• “There are a number of people who suffer from main character syndrome... They've used Charlie's death to talk about themselves. And I just find that so disappointing and so classless.” (11:50)
• “They are exceeding presidential turnout in the first day of early voting.” (14:45)
• “Republicans need to show up in much stronger numbers to counter what is happening in Northern Virginia and the... Richmond suburbs.” (16:20)
• “Jack Chiarelli’s comeback was extremely good... That was probably the best comeback I have heard from a politician since Trump told Hillary that she would be in jail.” (22:28)
• “It looks like it’s going to be a closer election than Virginia. The polls... objectively performed very strongly last time.” (27:20)
• “This will be the last election that will really decide the state of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court going into 2030...” (29:50)
• “Charlie was really unique... made information palatable better than I certainly do.” (35:30)
• “Who could replace him at all those things? I don't know... he was really once in a generation kind of talent for a lot of this stuff.” (36:00)

Summary Table of Important Segments & Timestamps

| Topic | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------|--------------| | California cultural/holiday reflections | 03:15–07:30 | | Charlie Kirk memorial & its impact | 07:30–12:40 | | Virginia elections & early voting trends | 12:50–20:12 | | New Jersey governor’s race analysis | 20:22–28:50 | | Pennsylvania Supreme Court preview | 28:50–30:49 | | Ask Me Anything: Kirk’s successor | 34:01–37:37 |

Tone and Style

Graduski’s delivery is sharp, witty, and direct with a distinctly skeptical approach to big political narratives. He injects humor into personal anecdotes and doesn’t shy away from criticizing both “his side” and the opposition. The analysis throughout is data-rich, always qualified by skepticism, and focused on what the numbers actually tell us (or don’t).

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

If you want an insider’s breakdown of 2025’s key state elections, with attention to both hard data and the stories behind it, this episode supplies clear-eyed analysis and memorable moments. From early turnout numbers in Virginia to the money race and campaign tactics in New Jersey—plus a sneak peek at Pennsylvania’s pivotal Supreme Court fight—Graduski helps listeners separate hype from substance.

If you care about the numbers driving the 2025 election headlines, this is the discussion you don’t want to miss.