It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the New Jersey & Virginia Elections

Summary

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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the New Jersey & Virginia Elections

Date: September 22, 2025
Host: (with focus on Ryan Graduski segment)
Podcast: iHeartPodcasts

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Overview

In this “Numbers Game” segment of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, Ryan Graduski delivers an in-depth, numbers-driven analysis of the latest electoral dynamics in Virginia and New Jersey, with additional commentary on critical races in Pennsylvania. Graduski combines ground-level data, a sharp skeptical eye, and lively storytelling to break down early voting trends, campaign strategies, and their implications for the 2025 off-year elections.

He opens with a quick personal story from a West Coast trip, then pivots to review the unprecedented memorial for Charlie Kirk, reflections on its significance, and some pointed observations about political influencers’ conduct after Kirk’s death. The bulk of the episode focuses on state-level campaign and turnout analysis in Virginia and New Jersey—the emergent numbers, demographic breakdowns, and what it means for the parties involved. The episode closes with listener Q&A in the “Ask Me Anything” segment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cultural Observations from California (03:15–07:30)

• Graduski recounts his recent trip to California, noting how political conversations are assumed to be left-leaning in places like San Francisco.
  • People openly voice progressive opinions, assuming everyone around them agrees.
  • Amusing anecdotes highlight the disconnect between personal appearance and political assumptions.

Notable Quote

"Because I wasn't toothless or had a Confederate flag tattoo on my forehead, they presumed that I must have voted for Kamala. Like, it was very strange." — Ryan Graduski (06:00)

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2. The Charlie Kirk Memorial & Conservative Movement Reflection (07:30–12:40)

• Graduski discusses the massive public turnout for Charlie Kirk’s memorial in Arizona.
  • He frames it as a generational event and notes its cultural implications, evoking comparisons to Elvis Presley and Martin Luther King Jr.’s public memorials.
  • Praises Erica Kirk (Charlie’s widow) for her moving speech and public grace.
  • Notes a growing conversation about Christian revivalism in America prompted by the service’s evangelical overtones.
  • Voices disappointment with “main character syndrome” exhibited by certain right-wing influencers using Kirk’s death for self-promotion.

Notable Quotes

"This Charlie Kirk's memorial is the largest private citizen’s memorial since the death of Elvis Presley." (08:40)
"Erica, his wife's speech was extremely moving... I think very highly of her... I'm kind of blown away by how talented she is as an orator." (09:45)
"There are a number of people who suffer from main character syndrome... They've used Charlie's death to talk about themselves. And I just find that so disappointing and so classless." (11:50)

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3. Deep Dive: Virginia Elections & Early Voting Trends (12:50–20:12)

• Early Voting Dynamics

  • Virginia has six weeks of early voting—an arrangement Graduski critiques but accepts.
  • Unlike states like NJ and PA, Virginia does not register voters by party, so analyses rely on modeled data and voting history.

• Republican and Democratic Strongholds

  • Early voting in Republican-leaning counties (e.g., Highland, Goochland) is outpacing even the 2024 presidential turnout:
    “They are exceeding presidential turnout in the first day of early voting.” (14:45)
  • Democratic areas (e.g., Saint Petersburg City, Falls Church City) are underperforming, only reaching 30–34% of their 2024 turnout so far.

• Caution on Turnout Interpretation

  • Not all GOP areas are seeing robust turnout; e.g., Buchanan and Tazewell lag behind.

• On Ballot Stakes

  • Elections include Governor, Lieutenant Governor (on separate tickets), Attorney General, and full State Legislature.
  • Democrats have slim majorities and hope for a “wave” year; Republicans sense opportunity in shifting turnout patterns.

• Demographics & Ballot Requests

  • Mail-in ballots:
    • ~225,000 Democrats requested
    • 82,000 Republicans
    • 102,000 Independents
  • Black voter turnout, particularly among “low propensity” voters, is lagging—bad for Democrats.

• Strategic Campaign Focus

  • Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, “at the top of the ticket,” is running a campaign heavily focused on trans rights and gender in sports.
  • Sears is mobilizing the Trump base with cultural, not economic, arguments—possibly at the expense of independents.

Notable Quotes

“Republicans need to show up in much stronger numbers to counter what is happening in Northern Virginia and the... Richmond suburbs.” (16:20)
“Winsome Sears... is using cultural issues to get there, even if it's possibly at the expense of talking about pocketbook issues that independent voters really care about. We'll see if it works.” (16:54)

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4. New Jersey Governor’s Race & Polling Surprises (20:22–28:50)

• National Stakes & Spending

  • DNC has poured $3M into the governor’s race, the DGA plans $20M for Democrat Mickey Sherrill—far outspending Republicans (~$1.5M so far).

• Debate Fireworks

  • Viral debate exchange: Jack Ciattarelli (R) calls out Mickey Sherrill (D) on insider activity and stock trades.
  • Graduski praises Ciattarelli’s comeback as a defining moment.
    • “That was probably the best comeback I have heard from a politician since Trump told Hillary that she would be in jail.” (22:28)

• Polling Shakeup

  • Internal poll from a historically accurate firm shows Ciattarelli leading by 1 point.
  • Graduski cautions: internal polls often favor the candidate commissioning them but notes the firm’s past accuracy.
  • Poll suggests Ciattarelli leads independents by 21 points—he’s skeptical (“Does this poll, is this poll accurate? 21 points a lot”. (25:30))

• Demographic Trends

  • Democrats still hold an 860k+ voter registration edge, but Republicans have made notable gains since 2021.
  • Ciattarelli is running a campaign focusing on state-specific issues—taxes, energy, local governance—while Sherrill is trying to “nationalize” the race, linking her opponent to unpopular GOP Congressional actions.

Notable Quotes

“Jack Chiarelli’s comeback was extremely good because it defined the Democrat in a way you want to ahead of the election, so close, where people are actually paying more attention.” (22:38)
“It looks like it’s going to be a closer election than Virginia. The polls showing it being closer objectively performed very strongly last time.” (27:20)

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5. Pennsylvania Supreme Court Election—A Hidden National Story (28:50–30:49)

• The state’s Supreme Court, now heavily Democratic, will decide future redistricting after the 2030 Census—potentially affecting congressional seats for the coming decade.
• Republicans have improved in mail-in ballot requests, but Democrats retain the edge.
• Graduski teases a deeper analysis in a future episode.

Notable Quote

“This will be the last election that will really decide the state of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court going into 2030... The Supreme Court’s going to be very influential in deciding how many Democratic seats are drawn in the state. It is something to be mindful of and to pay attention to.” (29:50)

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6. Ask Me Anything: The Future of Turning Point USA (34:01–37:37)

• Listener question: Who could succeed Charlie Kirk at Turning Point USA?
  • Graduski predicts Erica Kirk will become CEO but doubts anyone can replicate Kirk’s unique blend of organizing, debating, and media chops.
  • He emphasizes Kirk’s rare talent and ability to reach average and young Americans in a way no one else currently can.

Notable Quotes

“Charlie was really unique in the sense that he was a politico... made information palatable better than I certainly do.” (35:30)
“Who could replace him at all those things? I don't know. I don't think that there's anyone who could do everything that Charlie did because he was very talented in a number of places...” (36:00)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “Because I wasn't toothless or had a Confederate flag tattoo on my forehead, they presumed that I must have voted for Kamala.” — Ryan Graduski (06:00)
• “This Charlie Kirk's memorial is the largest private citizen’s memorial since the death of Elvis Presley.” (08:40)
• “There are a number of people who suffer from main character syndrome... They've used Charlie's death to talk about themselves. And I just find that so disappointing and so classless.” (11:50)
• “They are exceeding presidential turnout in the first day of early voting.” (14:45)
• “Republicans need to show up in much stronger numbers to counter what is happening in Northern Virginia and the... Richmond suburbs.” (16:20)
• “Jack Chiarelli’s comeback was extremely good... That was probably the best comeback I have heard from a politician since Trump told Hillary that she would be in jail.” (22:28)
• “It looks like it’s going to be a closer election than Virginia. The polls... objectively performed very strongly last time.” (27:20)
• “This will be the last election that will really decide the state of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court going into 2030...” (29:50)
• “Charlie was really unique... made information palatable better than I certainly do.” (35:30)
• “Who could replace him at all those things? I don't know... he was really once in a generation kind of talent for a lot of this stuff.” (36:00)

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Summary Table of Important Segments & Timestamps

| Topic | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------|--------------| | California cultural/holiday reflections | 03:15–07:30 | | Charlie Kirk memorial & its impact | 07:30–12:40 | | Virginia elections & early voting trends | 12:50–20:12 | | New Jersey governor’s race analysis | 20:22–28:50 | | Pennsylvania Supreme Court preview | 28:50–30:49 | | Ask Me Anything: Kirk’s successor | 34:01–37:37 |

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Tone and Style

Graduski’s delivery is sharp, witty, and direct with a distinctly skeptical approach to big political narratives. He injects humor into personal anecdotes and doesn’t shy away from criticizing both “his side” and the opposition. The analysis throughout is data-rich, always qualified by skepticism, and focused on what the numbers actually tell us (or don’t).

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

If you want an insider’s breakdown of 2025’s key state elections, with attention to both hard data and the stories behind it, this episode supplies clear-eyed analysis and memorable moments. From early turnout numbers in Virginia to the money race and campaign tactics in New Jersey—plus a sneak peek at Pennsylvania’s pivotal Supreme Court fight—Graduski helps listeners separate hype from substance.

If you care about the numbers driving the 2025 election headlines, this is the discussion you don’t want to miss.

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Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you all for being here. It is Monday, September 22, 2025, and we have just 43 days left until the 2025 in New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. It is coming by fast. We're actually only 100 days left of the of the year of 2025 until 2026, which is insane because I feel like we're only halfway there, but we are 3/4 through the entire year. I just got back from the west coast from a family vacation. I was in California over last week. I was in Carmel, which was really beautiful. I. It was very cute town in California. I had a family wedding for my cousin out in San Francisco and then we made our way down the coast. Cal, California is such a beautiful state. It is so, such, like an amazing place with such bad politics. But I bring up the trip because it was weird how many people in that part of the country, especially around San Francisco, just assume you're a liberal. People talk to me about politics all over the place. The checkout girl at Target brought up Obama while I was trying to buy, like, a container of iced coffee. I was like, melissa, I'm just trying to have a day. Like, I don't need to bring up, like, Obama. It was so bizarre. The guy in front of me at the Alamo rental car, like, checkout at the airport, he wasn't working there. He was just standing in front of me. And I complimented his tattoo. And then he started telling me which parts of Ohio were the most progressive. I was like, do you think I care? Like, sir, we are on a line at an Alamo rental car. This relationship that we have is not going to last another five more minutes unless there's a strike. Like, why? Why do you need to tell me which cities in Ohio are the most supportive of transgender people playing sports? I don't give a shit. Sir, like, this was maddening. My brother went to a restaurant and he asked the waitress which bars were open nearby. And the waitress starting telling, warning, not even telling, warning him which bar owners were Trump supporters. I just think that they have this opinion that they know what a Republican must look and sound like. And because I wasn't toothless or had a Confederate flag tattoo on my forehead, they presumed that I must have voted for Kamala. Like, it was very strange. I also ran into a longtime listener of the podcast and someone I followed on social media named Jake. He was terrific. I want to give him a shout out really quickly, tell you the Italian pastries that he treated me to were excellent. I know that no one listens to me to hear my travel stories. I just wanted to tell you all because just, just liberals are very inclined to give you their opinion and presume that if you're not walking around in an NRA T shirt that you must be one of them. And I, like a dope, just pretended like I just wanted to keep the conversation, not keep the conversation moving, just keep the day moving. And I did not engage and, and argue as, like, let's just get this out of the way. And why don't I just, you know, keep my, Keep my vacation happening. Next time maybe I will blur out something. I don't know. And before I start talking about the upcoming elections, I just want to mention I watched clips of Charlie Kirk's memorial service in Arizona. I'm not exactly sure how many people showed up. It seems to be the official estimates range from between 95,000 to 200,000, based upon things I've read online, which, according to my research, and I did some research, this Charlie Kirk's memorial is the largest private citizens memorial since the death of Elvis Presley. And when I say private says, I don't mean like Reagan. I mean like someone who didn't serve in any official capacity. I think he is the last person to draw this kind of a crowd since Elvis Presley's death and the last political figure to draw this kind of crowd since Martin Luther King Jr's assassination in 1968. So that's pretty incredible when you really think about it. It is a generational event. I didn't watch the full funeral. I watched parts of it, the parts of his Turning Point colleagues was very moving. Erica, his wife's speech was extremely moving. Really. I mean, she is very, for me, able to give that kind of a speech in this moment since losing her husband. And the New York Times write up with her was very impactful. She was. She seems like a very profound person and I've been praying for her a lot. Forgiving Charlie's killer and talking about him as the young man Charlie had tried to intervene in, I think was just. I don't know if I could have collected my words and if I was in such a state as she's in. So she was really, really, really, really just monumental. And I think very highly of her. I didn't. I didn't really ever hear her speak before this. And I'm kind of blown away by how talented she is as an auditor. The Kirk Memorial also sparked a lot of questions about Christian revivalism in America. I saw that being chatted about online. It was very evangelical. There were a lot of pastors there, and I know some people were Catholic and other religions, but it was a conversation on Christian revivalism is being talked about. And I think I'm going to do a podcast episode about that idea. Is it really happening? What is church attendance for young people really like? Are people just identifying as being Christian but not actually practicing? I'm going to look to see if I can get a good guess to talk about it because I'm curious about. I've had many conversations with people who do believe in it and I'm always a skeptic unless I see data. It's just who I am. So, yeah, that was my only thoughts. And also, one last thing, and this is more of the negative side, I have to say I've been extremely disappointed by some, quote unquote, right wing influencers and how they have acted over the last 11 days. There are a number of people who suffer from main character syndrome where they have to make themselves the star of the show at any given thing. And they have used Charlie's death to talk about themselves. And I'm not talking about any one person. I'm talking about multiple people who have kind of put themselves in the middle of it, rather than talking more about him and his life and his kids and, you know, whatnot. And I just find that so disappointing and so classless. And I just wanted to say that there's not, once again, it's not one person. It's many, many, many people. And it's been very disheartening that they've done that in this time. So. All right, let's go to politics. It is 43 days, as I said, till the election. Let's start off in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Virginia's election didn't start in 43 days. Actually, Virginia's election has started A few days ago because in that state they have six weeks of early voting. I do not believe that they should have that much early voting, but they do. So it is what it is. I'm just, I'm not my. I don't make the rules as usual. I have been a godfather four times and I have been a God zero times. And is my great lot in life that I don't make rules for other people. So something you need to remember about Virginia is that they do not register voters by party. Unlike New Jersey, unlike New York City, unlike Pennsylvania, where there's big elections, statewide elections this year. There's no way of knowing how people identify themselves other than if they say it out loud. But there's no registration form. You're not registered to only be a Republican or only be a Democrat. So when I compare the data that I'm about to give you, I am talking about presumed identification based upon elect total data based upon how data companies model how they think people are going to be voting or how they are registered if they could register a party and also the past performances of the areas that they vote in. Because a lot of areas are landslide Democrat or landslide Republican counties. So if anyone votes there, you can presume they're more than likely voting Democrat or Republican. Okay, let's start at the early voting. Early voting is not. We don't have the data of the entire state. It's just a few counties. Republicans actually showed surprisingly good early data in some strong Trump counties. Highland, Virginia, a place that Trump won by 58 points, is already 125% of their first day of early voting in 2024. What does that mean? That means they are exceeding presidential turnout in the first day of early voting. The top five counties that are either exceeding or coming close to their 2024 totals of their first day of early voting are all Republican strongholds. Highland, King and Queen, Goochland, Wythe and Cumberland counties are all about 88% to 125% of their 2024 totals. That is very good for Republicans. The weakest area compared to them is in compared to the 2024 early vote is Saint Petersburg City. It is a place that Kamala Harris won by 73 points. They are only turning out about 30, 34% of the rate they did in 2024. Falls Church City, another very blue area that Kamala Harris won by 62 points, is having very poor turnout. A 32% of their first day in 2025 compared to their first day in 2024. Now that this doesn't mean that all the Republicans are showing up in strongholds. Buchanan, Tazewell, Galax City. They are all had pretty poor turnouts and those are big Republican areas. You may be asking like Ryan, I don't really care about these individual places. I want to talk about the state as a whole. You have to remember that there's more on the ballot than just the governor's race. There's also the lieutenant governor's race which in Virginia the lieutenant Governor and governor are voted separately. They're not on the same ticket. So it's possible to have a Republican governor and a Democrat lieutenant governor or vice versa or a Democrat governor and a lieutenant, a lieutenant governor governor who's, who's Republican. There's also the attorney general's race where the incumbent AG is the only statewide office holder to be seeking reelection, he's a Republican. And there's also the state legislature. Democrats hold a two seat majority in both the state house and the state Senate. They're hoping for a landslide victory this year in the Governor's mansion. That could bolster up a huge majority in the state legislature and even give them possibly a veto proof majority in the state house. These early vote returns are bad for Democrats in some of those key swing districts in Virginia like in the second house district. That's a district that Kamala Harris won in the presidential election but a Republican represents in the state legislature. What we're looking at with the data shows that black voters, specifically lower pensity black voters who vote in presidential elections and not other elections are really not showing up in big numbers. That's bad for Democrats in some very key state legislative races. Now early in person voting is just one method to how people cast a ballot because of course they have mail in voting according to political models. Now this is what, what data companies estimate will be how people registered to vote if they could. And 24,000, almost 225,000 likely Democrats have requested a mail in ballot. 82,000 Republicans have requested a mail in ballot and 102,000 likely independents have requested a mail in ballot. So more Democrats have requested mail in ballots than Republicans and independents combined, according to my buddy Christian Hyen. I think that's how you're pronouncing your last name, Christian. I'm not exactly sure. He's a very smart Republican data guy out of Virginia. He thinks about 2/3 of all the early vote in the first day have broken for Democrats. But a big part of that is because a big blue counties like Fairfax have a very high raw vote data, he told me. What we're seeing so far is tremendous turnout at a very white liberal areas like in the Richmond suburbs, while Republicans have had decent turnout in some of these swing areas and the black turnout is substantially lower than it needs to be for Democrats to capture a super majority in the state legislature. It's very early though. There are some decent signs of Republicans and some down ballot races. Democrats have had a good job at turning out high propensity voters. Republicans have had some decent turnout when it comes to low propensity voters. But once again, very, very early. They will need a lot more of it to have some kind of an upset. Republicans need to show up in much stronger numbers to counter what is happening in Northern Virginia and the increased suburb, the increased turnout rather in the Richmond suburbs. A lot of people are commenting on the state of Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears campaign. She's at the top of the ticket. She's probably the most important campaign to look at. What she has done in this election is very interesting. She's talked a lot about trans rights and transgender people playing girls sports, transgender, I guess, women playing biological women's sports. It's become the focus of the campaign over other pocketbook issues. And I think that her method, what she's hoping for is that she could turn out the Trump base, turn out low propensity voters to see if they will counter the high turnout. She's basically hoping for a Republican side turnout on the Republican side and she's using cultural issues to get there, even if it's possibly at the expense of talking about pocketbook issues that independent voters really care about. We'll see if it works. She has 43 days to sit there and pull a miracle because she's very behind in the polls. What's going on in New Jersey is you're what you're asking. That's coming up next.

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[A]

On Sunday, the New York Times reported that the Democratic National Committee has announced they're pouring another $1.5 million into the new Jersey Governor's election, bringing their total they have invested to 3 million. A group associated with the Democratic Governors association has committed $20 million to help Mickey Sherrill, the Democratic nominee, win. That's significantly more than the Governors association, which has only spent 1.5 million on recent ads in support of Jack Cittarelli, the Republican nominee. On Tuesday, they purchased another 1.1 million. Four years ago, the DNC spent less than half as much helping Governor Murphy win re election against Cittarelli, the former assemblyman who came in a very tight race for governor in 2021. This late stage ad purchase, and this is a quote, this late stage ad purchase on behalf of the Democrats show that confident that they are going to win the state, a state where Democrats have over 860,000 more registered voters than Republicans. Republican Jack Ciarelli and Democrat Mickey Sherrod debated yesterday. And that clip, the clip that I think people are seeing anyway, is going viral. It's got earned several million views on Twitter and Instagram that I have seen. And it is a comeback from Jack Chiarelli over accusations that. Not accusations. It's mostly the Democrat Mickey Sheryl, she sat there and said, I'm going to make sure that you can't hold office again. You guys, to hear that clip now, it doesn't matter because I'm going to.

[C]

Make sure that he doesn't get to.

[A]

Serve again when I win for governor in November of this year.

[B]

There's another big difference between her public service and my public service.

[A]

It actually cost me money, the time I put in and took away from my company.

[B]

In the seven years that she's been.

[A]

In Congress, she's tripled her net worth.

[B]

There's another big difference, difference between the two of us, okay? She broke the law.

[A]

She had to pay fines for violating federal law on stock trades and stock reporting. And the New York Times reports that.

[B]

While you're sitting on the House Armed.

[A]

Services Committee, you were trading defense stocks. That was probably the best comeback I have heard from a politician since Trump told Hillary that she would be in jail. I mean, because what it does is not only defines Mickey Sheryl as being an insider who is corrupt. And saying that Jack has been, you know, lost money while serving in office. He's a very wealthy man. But it is sat there and said that she is part of the blob in Washington. That is politics as usual, that voters hate, that independent voters hate. Chittarelli had a reasonably strong debate performance. It was one awkward moment where he tried to fist bump a young kid and the young Kid wouldn't fist bump him back. But besides that, it was a very strong debate performance. And debate performances don't usually matter for local offices unless a candidate has a blowout moment where they say something that. That hurts them. Some say something that blows them their face. Jack Chiarelli's comeback was extremely good because it defined the Democrat in a way you want to ahead of the election, so close, where people are actually paying more attention. The other interesting part, and I don't have the clip for it, but it's not important because it lasted for just a second, was that the Democrat, Mickey Sheryl, refused to commit to not raising taxes. That.

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That's. If you don't want two clips ahead of an election, that's where you don't want them. Chittarelli got more good news, however. Right before the debate, an internal poll showed him leading the Democrat by one point. The poll was conducted by national research. Now, this is an internal poll, right? So his own campaign was doing the polls. That means that you should treat it with a little grain of salt, because we don't know if it was an informed poll or it was the poll before. Before the information. What an informed poll is for those who don't know is that pollsters who are polling for a campaign will say to a voter, who are you likely to vote? You know, John or Mary, and say, John has 50 and Mary has 50. Then they'll read, and John is doing the poll. Then they'll read a bunch of statements. Mary is prefers cats over dogs. Mary voted to raise taxes. You know, I don't know. Supports abortion on demand. Now, who are you more likely to vote for? And then, like, Jack will have 55 and Mayor, we'll have four to five, and you'll see. Oh, okay. Well, this is the strongest issue to attack them in. This is why the polls are being done internally. So we don't know if it's an uniform poll or not an informed poll. There's not a ton of information behind this because it was internal in the campaign. I will say this, though. The one reason I'm even reporting this information, because usually I would not report an internal poll to you guys, is that it was conducted by national research and they were the most accurate pollster in the 2021 New Jersey Governor's race. They predicted Murphy would win by three, and Murphy won by three. Usually a pollst with high level of credibility does not want to leak out a poll that is completely going to destroy their reputation. They don't really love that. Idea. So especially coming off of a big successful year, as they did in 2021, this is the first poll that has ever showed Chittarelli leading. Most polls have him losing between six and eight points, which is what Trump lost in 2024 against Kamala. He lost by six points. So it's an outlier. But it is a very strong pollster with reputation. There's a series of A plus pollsters, people that are highly accredited in the industry who have announced since that poll came out that they're going to go back in the field re examine the governor's race. We'll have more polling that comes out about that. This poll has Chitterelli leading among independents by 21 points. That seems like a lot to me personally. That's one thing I'm like, does this poll, is this poll accurate? Is this an informed poll? 21 points a lot. There are 2.3 million independents in the state of New Jersey. So they everything. As I said Before, Democrats have an 861,000 voter advantage over Republicans. But Republicans have done a very good job at chipping away at Democrats lead. Since 2021, there are 222,000 more registered Republicans than there were the last time that Cittarelli ran for governor. This time and in that same time period, there's been over 200,000 new Republicans. There's only thousand new Democrats. So what Cheryl is hoping to do in this election to galvanize these Democrats, that's who have a, who have a big lead, but it is a smaller leader than it used to be and try to win over independent support. And you can see it in her debate performance. You can see it in the ads that she's running is she's trying to nationalize this election. She's trying to make it about Donald Trump. This is the same thing that Governor Murphy did in 2021 against Citarelli in 2021. Murphy's Chittarelli talked about January 6th. This time Cheryl's comments and ads talk a lot about the big beautiful bill, about Medicaid cuts. And she's trying to make Schiarelli own what the Republican Congress has done, which is fairly unpopular, especially in the state of New Jersey, especially among independents, and trying to galvanize Democrats to show up and vote. Schiattorelli is making the election more about New Jersey. He's saying, I've served in every level of state office in New Jersey from the assem local government. This would be like the next thing. And I'm, I, I know the state like the back of my hand. Reducing energy costs, reducing cost of living, reducing taxes. That's how we're going to get businesses to stay in New Jersey. That's how we're going to get New Jersey thriving again. He's even brought the fact that New Jersey went from number two to number 12 in the education ratings and talking about how to make New Jersey's education more dynamic. It is a much more a diverse way of speaking for a candidate. In the same way that Winsome Sears over in Virginia is trying to nationalize this election to make it more about Republican issues as a whole. The trans issue, especially in the state of Virginia, Cittarelli is trying to do the exact opposite in New Jersey. It's very, very weird actually. Cheryl, Mickey, Cheryl is running a campaign that is more like Winsome Sears than Jack Cittarelli is. And Jack Cittarella is running a more deeply focused on the state of New Jersey and what the inter politics are in the state. It's very interesting. It looks like it's going to be a closer election than Virginia. The polls showing it being closer objectively performed very strongly last time. Early voting in New Jersey begins October 25th. I'm going to do a deep dive in episode in New Jersey. Do not worry. I think next Monday I'm hoping to do Virginia and then I'll go to New Jersey. There's also the state Supreme Court races coming up in Pennsylvania. This is incredibly important and no one, I promise you, on most election podcasts are talking about this. It is important because the Pennsylvania Supreme Court is overwhelmingly Democrat. And what did the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decide that has national implications for us in 2021? They decided over redistricting. They decided to make certain districts lean more Democrat going into 2028. This will be the last election that will really decide the state of the Pennsylvania supreme court going into 2020. 2030. 2030, we go through redistricting again and Pennsylvania is likely to lose one more congressional district. The Supreme Court's going to be very influential in deciding how many Democratic seats are drawn in the state. It is something to be mindful of and to pay attention to. Pennsylvania has a very large mail in voting apparatus. Republicans are doing a much, much better job at asking for mail in voting than they used to. Democrats absolutely lead will, but Republicans are actually requesting mail in ballads at a significantly higher rate than they usually do. I'm going to bring you the exact numbers on Pennsylvania probably next Monday when I go into Virginia. I just want you guys to know about it. It's something to pay attention to no one else is talking about it. Up next is Ask Me Anything.

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Welcome back to the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryan@NumbersGame podcast plural numbers game podcast.com love getting your emails. I read every one of them. This comes from my old buddy Peter fomo. Peter emails me all the time. Try to get your questions as often as possible, Peter, but I do enjoy them. He mentioned someone I had on my podcast about the young man from Angola about being well informed and doing debates, and he asked who could be a successor to Charlie Kirk at TP usa. Well, obviously Erica Kirk is going to take over as the CEO of Turning Point and she seems extremely eloquent. I don't really know her, aside from her public announcements that she's had since Charlie's death. So I don't, I don't know her debate signing skills or even if she would want to do a public debate like Charlie used to. Given that that's how her husband was assassinated. I could see how she would not want to. But Charlie was really unique in the sense that he was a politico, he had a political mind and he was able to really find new rising tal in the gop, get behind them early, support them, and put money and effort and a ground game together in important states. Not only for candidates running for office, but also for the presidential campaign. That was one half of Charlie's talent and the other half was the half that you that if you're a listener because you saw his ability to debate, which is a unique talent. His ability to host a two hour radio show is a unique talent. His ability to do Fox News clips which are very I did, was on Laura Ingram. You're only on for three minutes. You have to get all your talking points out in a very short period of time. That's a different talent. And Charlie was exceedingly good at all those different things. Who could replace him to do all of those things. I don't know. I don't. I don't think that there's anyone who could do everything that Charlie did because he was very talented in a number of places and he made information palatable better than I certainly do. One of my aunts was like, I don't know what you're ever saying sometimes because she's not into politics like my listeners are. But that's okay. I have a very niche. I have a very niche opinion, a very niche listening audience. People who are highly informed, highly engaged, and want to be highly informed. It's not for just people who have a passing fancy, I think, with politics. But that's okay, you know, teach their own. I think that Charlie made things very palpable for the average person, for young people who could replace him at all those things. I don't know. I imagine someone's going to take over each individual role that he did. He was really, really uniquely talented. And as I've said this before, I wrote this my substack, that he, over time got better, which is rare. A lot of people start out strong and kind of just sputter across time. And he was constantly becoming smarter, becoming more capable, running TBUSA as a better organization. And yeah, I think that that's really, really, really says a lot about him as a man. And to do it all at 31 years old is kind of jaw dropping. But, yeah, rest in peace, Charlie again. I don't know, it's just so sad. Every time I think about it, it's so, so incredibly sad. But who can replace him, Erica, as CEO? And I don't know who replaced him at everything because he was really once in a generation kind of talent for a lot of this stuff. I don't have an answer for you. I usually try to get an answer for all my listeners, but I don't have an answer for that one. Anyway, thank you for listening. I'll be back on Thursday. We'll talk then. Please like and subscribe on the I Heart Rate radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast and I'll speak to you guys on Thursday.

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