It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Rise of the MAGA Movement with Shermichael Singleton

Summary

Summary of "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Rise of the MAGA Movement with Shermichael Singleton"

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show episode titled "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Rise of the MAGA Movement" features host Ryan Gruduski engaging in a comprehensive discussion with Shermichael Singleton, a former Trump administration staffer and co-founder of Guns Out TV. Released on March 24, 2025, this episode delves into the declining favorability of the Democratic Party, the burgeoning MAGA movement, and the shifting demographics influencing American politics.

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1. Introduction

The episode begins with Ryan Gruduski introducing Shermichael Singleton and setting the stage for a deep dive into the current political landscape. Singleton provides insights from his experience within the Trump administration, offering a unique perspective on the evolving dynamics between Republicans and Democrats.

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2. Decline of the Democratic Party

Poll Results and Public Sentiment Singleton presents alarming statistics from recent NBC News and CNN polls indicating a sharp decline in the Democratic Party's favorability:

• Favorability Ratings: Only 7% of Americans hold a very positive view of the Democratic Party, compared to Russia's 3%. (00:00:00)
• Generic Ballot: Democrats’ support dipped significantly from a 4-point lead in April 2017 to only 27% overall favorability by early 2025. (00:00:00)

Support for Democratic Leaders Singleton highlights the negative perceptions of prominent Democratic figures:

• Michelle and Barack Obama: -4% and -2% respectively.
• AOC: -9%
• Kamala Harris: -15%
• Joe Biden: -26%
• Gavin Newsom: -29%
• Hillary Clinton: -30%

This pervasive negativity underscores a leadership crisis within the party, with no clear frontrunner emerging. (00:00:00)

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3. Rise of the MAGA Movement

Growth in Membership The MAGA movement has seen unprecedented growth, now identifying 36% of Americans as part of the movement—a surpassing figure compared to evangelical Christians (30%) and labor unions. (00:00:00)

Demographic Shifts Breaking traditional demographic barriers, more individuals in the MAGA movement identify as evangelical Christians, surpassing historical alignment. This shift indicates a broader appeal and a realignment of political affiliations.

Implications for Extremism Labels Singleton critiques the Democratic Party’s tendency to label MAGA supporters as extremists, arguing that the movement is more substantial and mainstream than portrayed. He emphasizes the personal connections many have with MAGA supporters, making blanket labels both inaccurate and divisive. (00:00:00)

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4. Demographic Shifts and Voting Patterns

Generational Realignment David Shores' analysis reveals significant changes among white voters and minorities:

• White Voters: No substantial shift from 2016 to 2024.
• Minorities: Notable declines in support for Democrats among Black conservatives (-8%) and Hispanic moderates (-23%) and conservatives (-17%). (00:00:00)

Youth Voter Trends Young people, particularly men under 20, have shifted towards conservatism:

• Support for Trump: Majority among white men, women, non-white men, including Hispanics and Asians.
• Kamala Harris’ Support: Only 25% among white men under 20. (00:00:00)

Impact of Information Sources Shifting information consumption patterns, with younger voters leaning towards social media and platforms like TikTok, correlate with increased conservative sentiments. (00:00:00)

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5. Challenges in Democratic Party Strategy

Policy Misalignment Singleton argues that the Democratic Party's policies no longer align with the ideological shifts among key demographics, particularly those voting based on ideology rather than race. Issues such as artificial intelligence, drug abuse, civil liberties, education, Social Security, and international trade are areas where Democrats are perceived to be losing ground. (00:00:00)

Voter Roll Cleansing Impact The February voter roll adjustments resulted in a loss of 309,000 registered voters for Democrats compared to 29,000 for Republicans, illustrating structural challenges beyond polling inaccuracies. (00:00:00)

Internal Party Dissatisfaction Figures like Chuck Rocha from Texas Democratic express concerns over messaging and policy misalignment, yet these warnings often go unheeded within party leadership. Singleton notes a lack of consensus and actionable strategies among Democrats to address these foundational issues. (00:00:00)

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6. Implications for Future Elections

Electoral College Prospects Shore's data suggests that if voter turnout were to align broadly, Republicans could see significant gains in the Electoral College, potentially flipping states like Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Maine, and New Jersey. (00:00:00)

Economic Policies and Manufacturing Singleton emphasizes the importance of economic strategies such as bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. through tariffs and supportive policies, arguing that this could revitalize communities and provide job growth, which Democrats have failed to address adequately. (00:00:00)

Social and Cultural Factors The erosion of traditional masculinity and economic disenfranchisement among young men contribute to the political realignment. Singleton advocates for embracing and redefining masculinity within conservative frameworks to address these cultural shifts. (00:24:11)

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7. Final Insights and Conclusions

Call for Republican Unity and Strategy Singleton urges the Republican Party to capitalize on the current demographic shifts by solidifying their base and addressing the needs of "soft voters." He believes that strategic policy implementations and effective communication can lead to long-term conservative dominance. (00:35:09)

Future Outlook The conversation concludes with an emphasis on the necessity for the Republican Party to adapt proactively. Singleton remains optimistic about the potential for Republicans to regain and sustain political power by addressing demographic changes and policy misalignments head-on. (00:35:09)

Notable Quotes:

• Singleton on Democratic leadership crisis: "There is no agreement right now who is the leader of the Democratic Party." (18:41)
• Singleton on MAGA movement size: "The MAGA movement right now is bigger population-wise than labor unions and evangelical Christians." (00:00:00)
• Singleton on redefining masculinity: "The erasure of the traditional roles of men is leaving a lot of younger men wondering, what do I have to offer to society at all." (24:11)

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Conclusion

This episode presents a critical analysis of the current political climate, highlighting significant challenges facing the Democratic Party and the strategic opportunities for the Republican Party. Through data-driven discussions and expert insights from Shermichael Singleton, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the demographic and ideological shifts shaping future American elections. The conversation underscores the importance of adapting political strategies to align with evolving voter sentiments and demographic trends.

Transcript

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[Ryan Gruduski]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Grusky where I try to give you the numbers behind the narrative. This is episode 12 and I want to remind all my listeners that if you like my work, please smash the like and subscribe button and give me a review on Apple podcasts or Spotify or iHeartRadio app. Wherever you get your podcasts, it really, really helps and it makes a difference. I almost said politics and podcasts, but that's okay because I make a lot of, you know, this is just how I talk. In the 1990 hit film Ghost, Whoopi Goldberg looks at Demi Moore and says, molly, you in danger, girl. Well, a series of new polls have come out on the AMER how Americans feel the Democratic Party and, well, they're in danger. According to the NBC News poll that was released On Sunday, only 7% of Americans have a very positive rating of the Democratic Party. Mind you, that the nation of Russia right now has a 3% very positive rating. So Democrats are twice as more likely to to be popular with American voters as the aggressor in a European war. There are venereal diseases that are more popular right now than the Democratic Party. And it gets worse for Democrats when they ask them who they prefer to run Congress, 47% of respondents say the Democrats and 46% say Republicans and 5% are undecided. And you may think, well, Ryan, that's okay. I mean that Democrats have a point lead over Republicans. The generic ballot, it is bad because it is substantially lower than the last time Trump was in office at this time in April 2017, in the same NBC News poll, they found the democrats had a four point lead and there was a 10% undecided. So there was a lot more to work with. And by June, that number for Democratic, that lead for Democrats had grown to 8 points. Basically the, the 2018 wave, that wave for Democrats started forming in the beginning of 2017. Like we saw that coming and we don't really see that coming the way it did right now. Some other headlines from polls that you may, you know, not be aware of is that a majority or plurality of people, the American public, say that Trump is bringing the right kind of change more than the wrong change on issues like the economy, immigration, the size of government, the Middle East, Ukraine, tariffs, inflation and NATO. On all those issues which you hear about complained by the mainstream media constantly, more Americans say he's doing the right thing than the wrong thing. Now, there is a lot that say that he's doing nothing. But still that number for Democrats, where they want to be should be much higher on the fact that he's doing the wrong thing. Compounding the issue, this is once again from the NBC News poll. 36% of Americans say that they identify as part of the MAGA movement. Then maybe you're sitting there saying 36%, that's not high, it's not a majority. Well, for the first time ever, there are more people who say they're part of the MAGA movement and say that they're evangelical Christian. 30% of the country identifies as evangelical Christian, 36% as the Maga movement. There are more people who sit there in the MAGA movement than are people who work in labor unions. So the MAGA movement right now is bigger population wise than labor unions and evangelical Christians. I think this underscores the problem Democrats have when they call them all extremists. You're likely to know someone in the MAGA movement or identify themselves as part of the maga. They could be you, they could be your relative, they could be a dear friend. But it's much bigger than the extremism that they like to sit there and portray on the campaign trail. In September of 2023, 21% of the public said they were part of the MAGA movement. That was September 2023. That's only, what, 18 months ago? 18 months. You're talking a 15 point increase with the overall public. It's a big increase in a very, very short period of time. And maybe it'll go down eventually, maybe it will go up. We're inching our way, nearing 40% saying they're belonging to political movement that is a minority, but that is not a. That's a working, workable minority. That's a minority that can win elections. So the NBC poll, to sum it up, Democrats have an overall favorability rating of 27% and just 7% say they have a very positive rating of the party. Americans are more likely to say that Trump is doing the right kind of change and the wrong kind of change on a lot of big issues. And more than a third of Americans say they're part of the MAGA movement. Now, that wouldn't be bad if it existed in its own bubble. Like it's just one off poll. Who cares? You know, polls are wrong all the time. But a CNN poll came out the same day as the NBC poll and told a very similar story about the Democratic Party. Just 29% of Americans in that poll. So they had a favorable opinion of democrats, including just 26% of men, 25% of white voters and 19% of independents. A poll from Atlas intel which was the most accurate pollster in the 2024 election or one of the most accurate. It was the only one that I know of to predict that Trump would not only win the Electoral College vote, but also win the popular vote. It said that Americans, that poll, the Atlas intel poll, Americans had a negative opinion of every single well known public Democrat, including the Obamas. Michelle and Barack Obama have a negative 4 and negative 2% favorable rating nationally and they're in the best shape. AOC is negative 9. Kamala Harris is negative 15. Joe Biden is negative 26. Gavin Newsom is minus 29. Hillary Clinton is minus 30. And there is no agreement right now who is the leader of the Democratic Party. In the CNN poll, only one politician cracked double digits as who was the leader and that was AOC at 10%. Bernie Sanders was close by at 8. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. She's the middle aged woman who grew up in private schools that from K to 12 that cost over $30,000 a year and now she pretends to be a dime store cardi b that member of Congress she's tied with Barack Obama, the former president. There is no safe place to rest your eyes. Polling aside, there's also hard numbers that are really going to be a hard pill for Democrats to swallow in February when most states started cleaning up their voter rolls and eliminating people who had died or moved or were Inactive. Democrats lost 309,000 registered voters nationwide. Republicans lost 29,000. That's not a poll, that's hard numbers. 309,000 versus 29,000 and everything. Speaking of hard numbers, everything that David Shore. David Shore is a Democratic data scientist. He's absolutely brilliant. I read everything that he writes. I've begged him to come on this podcast and said he went on Ezra Klein's podcast in the New York Times, which like I get, but I want him on my podcast. He gave an autopsy as to why Democrats and specifically Kamala Harris lost in 2024's that is jaw dropping for the party. David Shore found that among white voters, regardless if they were conservative, liberal or moderate, there was really no change between 2016 and 2024. There was an important change between 2016 and 2020 and then again in 2024. In other words, moderates and liberals voted more towards the Democrats in 2020 and then they moved back in 2016. That did happen, but by and that probably because of coronavirus or the media being hysterical on Trump. But between 2016 and 2024, the white voters did not change in those eight years. So while that didn't move much, minorities moved a lot. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 85% of Black conservatives. That number fell to 77% for Kamala Harris in 2024, an 8 point drop because a quarter of blacks who identify as conservatives no longer vote on their race. They vote on their political ideology. It's a big change and a big deal. Voting on ideology over race is the story of the last decades in politics. According to David Shore's data, many people understated this and under and did not believe it would happen, especially with Trump, because they believed that he was only a party for, you know, white people or whatever. Hillary Clinton won 81% of moderate Hispanics and 34% of conservative Hispanics. When Harris ran, her support among moderate Hispanics fell by 23 points and among conservative Hispanics by 17 points. For Asian Americans, the numbers were pretty striking as well. Harris lost 15% of moderate Asians that had voted for Hillary. Clint, one in seven. Basically between one in six and one in seven. And he says that shift is primarily among young people. Young people. David Shore went from being the most progressive generation to being one of the most conservative. Among voters under the age of 20. Donald Trump won a majority of white men, white women and non white men, including primarily Hispanics and Asians, but a lot of black young men. Harris won 25% of voters. White men under the age of 20, 25%. That is deep south number levels for white men. I mean that is, and that's nationwide. Any Republican ever won 25% of white men overall, they would have won every state of the union. You know, back 20 years ago, 30 years ago, people who get their news from traditional news media and they diligently listen to a lot of like traditional news media politics and the news is a big part of their life. They're becoming more and more Democratic. Shore's information says that those who get their information from social media and TikTok and politics isn't their whole life. They're becoming more Republican. This breakdown across educational lines is happening around the entire western world where you have populist figures across the world recently winning the support of lower information, I want to say low information, lower Lower people who don't read the news as much, people who are don't make politics their entire life. They are becoming more and more populous in their sentiment and they're getting and they're voting more and more often. David Schwartz breaks it down like this. Had only people who voted in the 2022 election, voted in 2024, Kamala Harris would have won the popular vote and the Electoral College. But if everyone in the country had voted, everybody, they were all forced to vote, not only would have Trump won, but he would have won the popular vote by 5 points, probably enough to win 50 more electoral college votes by flipping Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Maine and New Jersey. Shore says that low propensity voters simply lost track with Democrats on a number of key issues. They don't really love Trump, but they don't trust Democrats at all. And some of the issues are surprising. They don't trust Democrats on artificial intelligence, on drug abuse, on civil liberties, on education, on Social Security, on student loans, on international trade. At the end of the survey, Shore writes that Democrats do have some areas they could attack Trump on, like cuts for Medicare and Medicaid and repealing Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich. But get where they're losing big time on immigration, on deportations, putting the military on the border, designating the cartel as terrorists, requiring voter id, ending taxes on tips and Social Security and being forcing federal workers to go back to the office. Think of how hysterical MSNBC has been over these issues that Republicans are driving these low propensity, low information voters on. They don't understand how much they are missing the narrative. See, as much as Democrats have long mo that they want a racially harmonious country, they are the pol, the soft politics that want to bring everyone together. Their politics don't work when blacks, Hispanics and Asians are not voting on their race and they're voting on their ideology. And that is what Kamala Harris proved. They're the only people fighting against. Like white nationalism doesn't hold water when a majority of non white men under 20 are not voting for you anymore. And they don't understand that Donald Trump is bigger. This is a bigger moment than just one politician who they hate or Elon Musk. This is a moment, a realignment across the globe and it's going to get bigger, not smaller. And the generation whose graduations and sporting events and lives were canceled because of COVID lockdowns, who turned to TikTok and Instagram for their information are going to be one of the most conservative generations they had have ever seen. And it is a long term problem for them. To quote Whoopi Goldberg again talking to Demi Moore in the movie Ghost. Democrats, you're in danger. You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll be right back after this message.

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[Ryan Gruduski]

My guest for this week's show is my buddy Shermichael Singleton. You may have seen him on cnn, my favorite news network. And he is the co founder of Guns Out TV which is a firearms production company and we the free tv. Sure. Michael, thank you for being on the podcast.

[Shermichael Singleton]

Hey, good to see you, bro. You just had to throw that in the open.

[Ryan Gruduski]

I mean, whatever. It's a little thing. So. Okay, I'm going to ask a really tough question for the first, for the first right of the gate, who is the leader of the Democratic Party?

[Shermichael Singleton]

The hell if I know. I, I don't think anyone in America knows. I, I don't think they know. I don't think Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, Kamala Harris certainly isn't it. And Joe Biden is like they put him in a nursing home and forgot about him. No one knows Ryan.

[Ryan Gruduski]

Yeah, even the fact that that CNN poll had Jasmine Crockett tie with Barack Obama. I go, what is happening right now?

[Shermichael Singleton]

Even aoc, I mean, it's interesting, right? Because what that suggests, and I could be wrong, what that suggests is that as they find themselves in this sort of convoluted place, it appears to me that at least those who are still most active in their party, not only in political class, but even, you know, the activist base, they're going back towards that leftward bend of their party, despite that being completely rejected. And yet it appears by elevating Crockett, by elevating the likes of aoc, you're seeing Bernie Sanders get back out there again. People don't want that. They do not want that. That's why Kamala Harris didn't do well when she ran for president the first time. It's why she had a significant number of hurdles she had to attempt to get over when she was sort of crowned the Democratic nominee after Biden dropped out because she had to constantly respond to all of previous positions that were way too far to the left. People rejected it. And so, hey, my thing is, as a former Republican strategist. I don't really advise a lot of candidates much today. If they want to go in that direction, I say go ahead. You're going to allow Republicans to increase their majority in the House, especially if the economy continues to improve. There's a number of Senate seats that are going to be up for grabs. I imagine us improving them. You look at a lot of the down ballot races across the country. I see us maintaining an increase in our majorities in state legislatures on the House, the Senate side. So if they continue to move in this direction with the leaders they've chosen, it is only going to be a net benefit to us. And you cited something yesterday that I read on your X account. I went through and read through all of this data that just came out. Younger men, 25 and under younger voters writ large, men of colors, particularly Hispanic and a cohort of black men, which you and I used to debate a lot about. And I told your ass those numbers are going to move. They're all moving to the right. And so Ryan, this is, this is, I'll just really quickly before you jump in, this is an incredible opportunity for the Republican Party to crystallize and cement which I would call a soft voters. We have to deliver Ryan, because this could be the next 10, 15 years of conservative dominance in this country if we take advantage of this opportunity.

[Ryan Gruduski]

Yeah, well, the David Shores, you know, deep dive into the election. The crazy thing was that he not only did Kamala Harris lose, I mean she lost women, not white women under 20 years old, sorry, white women under 20 years old, but she lost non white men under 20 years old. And she only got 25% of white men under 20 years old, 25% of white men. That's basically that kid Harry Swinson and his like five white friends. Like that's literally all they won of white men under 25 years old. And it is the opposite Obama where like, you know, I, when I was, I mean when Obama ran, I think we're around the same age. I think I was like one of like only five people I knew under 25 that were voting for McCain back then. So like it is the opposite effect. And is it that we've talked a bit about this in private, but is it just that they are so the Democratic Party is so anti male and anti, it's so effeminate. It's so hysterical all the time about everything that it's really pushing these people away in your opinion?

[Shermichael Singleton]

I think so. I mean, you know, I think we're seeing the Destruction of masculinity not only within the Democratic Party, but culturally writ large. And you, you raised this question. I just replied to the Cartier family. I don't know if you've ever seen their YouTube videos. It's a four African American guys that respond to a lot of political stuff they've blown up. And they posted something a couple days ago and I replied to it and I pretty much said, you have a lot of young men in this country right now. You look at the increase in violence and school shooters, all this other crap with young men, there's something going on. Guns, you know, I'm a big gun guy. Guns have been around for forever. We didn't have the type of crazy shit, and I hope I can say this on your show, we didn't have the stuff that we're seeing today. Just 30 years ago, I'm 34 now. This was not a norm, the type of violence that we're starting to see within certain pockets of our young men. So what that suggests to me, I'm not a psychologist. Young men are yearning for something. And when you're constantly telling them to be masculine is bad. When you're telling them that there is no need for men anymore. Why? Because you have this, this less feminine woman, this strong woman who can sort of do it all on her own. And that's not the girl boss. Right. That's not to say that women should have their own careers and dreams for that. But the erasure of the traditional roles of men is leaving a lot of younger men wondering, well, what do I have to offer to society at all if everything is constantly telling me nothing, unless you're more of a feminine man, which is.

[Ryan Gruduski]

And also like. And also the fact is that we had years of the future's female where every person who was a hero was a woman or some person, let's say a non traditional masculine figure. If they were a man, they were they. And if you look at polling, you look at data, young men, they don't socialize, they don't have many close friends, they don't drink, they don't have sex, they don't smoke, they have a lot of the same life experiences of somebody significantly younger would have maybe a decade or two ago. And that I think affects it too. And also they have a shorter prospect of marriage because women don't. Women go to college at a higher rate than men do. Women do not want to marry a man who earns less money than them. That is just the way that, I mean, I call it whatever you want to call, but that is the God's honest truth. And a lot of young men do not have the opportunity and the prospects of out earning a lot of women. And it has left them with like, I don't know, must be feelings about themselves, but they do, they have some sort of attitudes towards politics which constantly puts them down in every which way.

[Shermichael Singleton]

I think you're 100 correct. You know, Trump, sometimes he makes these sort of interesting innuendos about things that have far deeper meaning, meanings. And I think he may even realize when he's saying it. And a year ago, he talked about the 80s, and he talked about how in the 80s you had all of the strong action heroes, all the guys you had, you know, Wall street, all the men who were just crushing it, making money, starting businesses. It was sort of this climate that embraced masculinity and being stoic and being competitive and being aggressive. Not in a negative way, of course, unless you have to. Because I do believe there's nothing better than a calm but dangerous man when he needs to be to protect himself and his family. But that's another conversation. But, but we had this period that embraced all of that. And even going into the 90s, you saw a bit of it. And then slowly into the 90s, early 2000s, you start to see this shift. And that's when, to your point, you start to slowly see less men going to college, more women going to college, more men becoming more depressed men not finding themselves in long term relationships. And I'm not saying that guys shouldn't go have fun in their 20s. You should have all the women you want, beautiful women, make a lot of money. That's part of being a guy. I think that is perfectly normal. But you started to see those things decline, Ryan. And so when you see Trump and other conservatives going into the podcast space talking to people like yourself, politicians, that is, a lot of men are looking to people like you, I assume, myself and others for answers in terms of what does it mean for me to be a man in 20, 25 and beyond. And for me, I believe it's working hard, having a shitload of fun, making a lot of money, being responsible, having values, taking care of yourself. And if you can do those things, you can live a thriving life. B, it's okay to be strong. When I'm talking to my guys and you and I talk, I cuss all the time. We talk about a lot of crazy stuff and that's the way we talk. I don't want to hear some Democrats saying, oh, you're being too aggressive. I'm a damn guy. Biologically, I am supposed to be aggressive. I can check my aggression, but embrace those things. Ryan.

[Ryan Gruduski]

No, I agree. You know, when a lot of like the, when a lot of the mass shootings happened, I thought about especially the one that happened at the country concert back in 20. I figured it was now 2018 in Vegas, 2019 in Vegas. And you saw all those pictures of those guys who were like hurdling their bodies on top of mostly women to protect them. I really got into thinking of like the role of manhood in the, in the perspective of. We men cannot create life, but we have to and it is part of our social contract then to protect it because we cannot create it and we, well, we cannot produce with our own body. We sacrifice with our bodies. We work a lot harder in terms of like hours. Just what the kinds of work men do are more physically demanding and they break us down. But we do it upon ourselves because we, you know, we, it's weird. We, we help build civilization though we cannot in innately just create civilization. We need women for that role. And it is that kind of marriage, for lack of a better word, of the two sexes that makes things prosperous and good. I don't know. I think about these things a lot and I think, well, what happens if that is raw from you when it is told that, you know, one, those kinds of jobs don't exist that much anymore, but two, or they're harder to find, or two, or you're being out priced by low wage workers from the rest of the world or machines or whatever. And then you're kind of denied the, the life experiences of having sex, having partying, having friends, getting married and having children. Those are huge, huge indicators of who you'll be and what you'll do. And I guess a lot of feelings you'll have about politics.

[Shermichael Singleton]

Yeah, yeah, I think, look, I, I think you're right again. This goes back to my point of yearning for, for halcyon days that is just no longer here.

[Ryan Gruduski]

Yeah, I do hear, you know so many. When Top Gun came out, you brought that up. When Top Gun came out, one of my employees who's 23, 22 at the time, sat there and said to me it made me miss an America I never lived through. And I was like, wow, that's wild. That's a big thing. Because I did live through part of it. And I felt like you did too. I forgot that you hadn't done it. I want to ask you about an 8020 issue. I wanted to ask you about. Someone said to me they want. Thinking about running for office as a Democrat in a red state. And then I said, why do you feel it? Trans women in men's sports or, sorry, trans women in women's sports? And they said to me, I don't care about it. And I go, that's the wrong answer. I don't. Democrats stop just throwing themselves on grenades when it comes to these 80, 20 issues.

[Shermichael Singleton]

You know, I got to tell you something, Ryan. I, being from the South, I have a lot of being black, a lot of my family are Democrats. A lot of people I know who are white are Democrats. I don't know a single person who supports this. Yeah, I don't know a single person who supports this. And, and it's not about being a. I'm not offended by anyone who, who's trans like that. It's like I'm a. If that's what you want to do, hey, more power to you. That's like, I'm not bothered by that. I'm very comfortable who the hell I am. And I feel like when you are, you're not bothered by people who just are different. But I think we do have an obligation to protect. I just had a daughter. If my daughter decided she wanted to play soccer or run track or do whatever other athletic, have whatever athletic experience, I want her to be rested, to have the assurance that she's going to compete against other girls and it's going to be fair. A trans woman biological male who now identifies as a woman will still have the biological physical features and traits of a man. You cannot change that. No matter how much medication you're on. Doesn't matter what surgical procedures you have to alter your physical outward aesthetics, you're still the same. And so for most people, they say, look, this isn't about discriminating against anyone. It is going to always be an unfair advantage. How is that fair to the girl? And I think you have this cohort of Democratic activists and some within the leadership ranks who just do not seem to understand that or want to acknowledge that because to them, to say that simple truth is to discriminate against someone. And I don't think that's the case.

[Ryan Gruduski]

At all pre and post election with all the Democrats, you know, did, did, was there a change? The ones you are on TV with or the ones you meet in regular life, was there. Is there a change of them saying something's wrong or are they like, no, no, no, it's just our voters didn't show up and we were going to get it right next time and screw it. Let's go head first. Or is there like somebody like we should. I mean, I hear Van Jones saying some things that are smart, but like, most of them, I don't see. Are they saying anything privately that you've heard?

[Shermichael Singleton]

I mean, look, Van, Van, as we were just on TV together and, and, and he, one of our.

[Ryan Gruduski]

He's so smart. Yeah.

[Shermichael Singleton]

When he said, look, you know, we're in trouble. Chuck Rocha. Do you know Chuck Rocha from Texas Democratic?

[Ryan Gruduski]

Yes, they do. Yeah. He's a little, He's a little, he's, he's a little wild. He is.

[Shermichael Singleton]

I love Chuck. Insane, though, Ryan. And shout out to Chuck. He's been saying since last year, we have a problem. I've been on panels with Chuck where he's just saying he may not win this thing because the messaging is wrong. We're not communicating correctly on the right issues. We're too far to the left on certain things. People don't support or believe this stuff, especially people of color. He's been saying that and no one's been listening. With that said, I'm not convinced, Ryan, that a lot of Democrats, particularly women, the men are different. A lot of the women, even when I speak with them in green rooms, not all of them, but a lot of them, them, they don't seem to get why they lost. And what I hear is that people wouldn't support Kamala Harris because she's a black woman. And I'm sure there are some idiots out there who have those views that we all know that. But I don't think that's representative of most people in this country. They will say that Donald Trump played into the fears of misogyny or racism, or they'll say black men don't want to support a strong black woman or Hispanics are bigoted towards. I mean, I've heard a lot of these things in my comments. I have yet to hear a realization that, you know what? Our policy positions are not in sync with where most people are who are to the center. Even if they're to the left, they're to the center. Most people. And I have not heard that from anyone except for mostly the guys and maybe a handful of women, two or three. But the vast majority. I've heard everything else for why they lost. Then the realization that their policy positions are just. Is wrong.

[Ryan Gruduski]

Well, it's, it's funny because that would. Because they would believe. They would believe that a black man would not vote for a black woman but voted for a white woman. They voted for Hillary Clinton and the same Hispanics voted for Barack Obama. So they voted for a black candidate before if they will not marry. They still are on this whole Kamala Harris around the most flawless campaign imaginable. Yeah. Which is ludicrous, which is insane thing. I want to ask you one last question because I have you for middle a little bit more time. You work for the Trump administration in Trump 45.

[Shermichael Singleton]

Yeah.

[Ryan Gruduski]

First term. What, what do you see different in this term and is it better or is it worse that you can see from the outside?

[Shermichael Singleton]

I mean, what I see different this time is Trump definitely has the experience. He's. He's already served once. He stayed engaged and involved in the political process once he left office. And so you certainly see a heightened sense of awareness of the bureaucratic process and how to get things done. The one thing that I would say that I wish we would do better and we still have time and I just said this on CNN last night. I applaud Elon Musk and the individuals he's brought on via Doge and what they're trying to tackle. I think it's important. $36 trillion in debt. BRICS right now, spearheaded by China, they are pulling in more countries, more developing countries, which their objective is to weaken the dollar, which has been weakening for quite some time, as you already know. You've talked about this. So we have some global competitiveness in terms of our commerce and economy. We gotta fix it. I think bringing in Congress, Republicans control the House, control the Senate. Looking at the Clinton playbook of the 90s, in my personal opinion, you may disagree. Ryan, I think is a smart, tactical way to do this. I think it gives Republicans the opportunity to go back to their districts to say that we're in charge. We're thinking about how to do this. We're thinking about the implications in terms of who we need to let go, why we need to let them go, how we're going to let them go. That instills confidence, in my opinion. It also gives Republicans who want to contest Democrats next year an opportunity to say I want to be a part of cost saving measures, the same cost saving measures that you have to do every single month in your own households of balancing your own budgets. We're going to do that in Congress and we're going to do it in a mobile.

[Ryan Gruduski]

The problem with the Elon stuff is that, is that Congress is going to vote to give the money that Elon just cut. So we're not going to save almost anything. That's. I mean, that's the big irony.

[Shermichael Singleton]

We've already done this, though.

[Ryan Gruduski]

Yeah.

[Shermichael Singleton]

Clinton with Newt Gingrich. Let's not forget this. That was the only time we balanced a budget in this country was with a Republican House working with a Democrat. There is a playbook here. You mean to tell me that Republicans who run everything can't balance a fricking budget?

[Ryan Gruduski]

Yeah. No, I'm. Can they? Yes. Will they? No. I mean, like. I mean, maybe. Listen, can. Can they. Is there a path to do it? Yes.

[Shermichael Singleton]

Yes.

[Ryan Gruduski]

They'd have to get Democrats on board. But I. Besides, the only government program that I think Democrats would support cutting is Doge. I can't imagine them wanting to cut the military. I mean, what would they cut? Honestly? What would Democrats want to cut? They're not going to touch anything related to any kind of health services. They would. They would. I mean, the fact that we ended transgender feminists plays in Afghanistan is, you know, a war on democracy to them. They've literally. They will fight for every kind of penny that we have in bs.

[Shermichael Singleton]

But I. I think, though, Ryan, I think you could actually get this out of the House. I think the bigger fight will be in the Senate because it. For obvious reasons, I think you could potentially get a couple of Democratic senators who are in very tight races, purple states, to vote for something like this. That's cost saving. I think the rest of it you probably have to do through some type of executive action. I think the administration would have to test us all the way to the Supreme Court. Some things. To your point, I don't think you'd get Democratic support. So then I would say to the president, look, this is the best we could do. It'll take us maybe three years to do it. We'll probably save a couple hundred billion dollars. These other things we cannot do. Let's try through EOS to accomplish it. We know we're going to be contested through the legal process. Let's go all the way to the Supreme Court to see how much leeway SCOTUS will ultimately give us. That's the way I would personally do this, because right now what we're seeing is all of these courts are knocking this down. And I got to be honest, Ryan, if this goes to the Supreme Court with Doge, I actually think they're going to say, we get what you're trying to do, but you have to get Congress involved in this because the Constitution is pretty clear on the power.

[Ryan Gruduski]

No, I agree with you on that. I think that they'll probably say okay to some of the firings. I think they'll probably make the inroads on the firings and then basically nothing else. The contracts and everything like that. That's what I personally think, is that they'll get the firings done.

[Shermichael Singleton]

But I think Trump could do this well. I think he could do what other Republican presidents after Clinton, Bill, George W. Bush was not able to do and what Trump wasn't even focused on in his first term, and that is to leave a country where you have cut the budget. Bill Clinton. And we never bring this up. That's why I keep bringing this up on cnn, because Democrats keep saying, this is abhorring what we're doing. Clinton fired 377,000 people all across the government. They keep saying, well, you're letting it go. People who care about their families. No one sent this stuff in the 90s. This is ridiculous to me that their arguments. And then two, the point on terrorists. And I want to bring this up, okay. It is really, really important what Trump is attempting to do after I have. I hate the idea of nafta. I know a lot of Republicans are, oh, free trade, free trade. The idea of free trade decimated the middle class, destroyed the middle class. This idea that we're going to have lower cost to produce goods as a net benefit to the American worker, and that's somehow going to elevate the Rust Belt. It didn't pan out. It didn't pan out because when manufacturers realized, hell, we can just shut down factories completely in the US for these cheaper wages. And so Trump's argument of saying, look, we're going to have equal tariffs to the tariffs that are placed on us by other countries will force some of these manufacturers to say, well, wait a minute here, we don't want to pay this, so let's bring these jobs back to the United States. Will it go back to pre 9 90s level? Probably not.

[Ryan Gruduski]

But if we can just get a.

[Shermichael Singleton]

Fraction of that, Ryan, just imagine over five to eight years what that will do to build back communities across this country. And I'm a bit disappointed that Trump has kind of been meandering on this issue. He'll give a little. He'll say, okay, we're going to back off. No, you have got to get these jobs back. What in the hell happens, Ryan, when China invades Taiwan or China does something crazy and we have to rely on China for manufacturing, or they take over Taiwan. And Taiwan is very critical for chips, as we know. And they say, well, we're not going to just, we're not going to sell to the US anymore. Too much of our manufacturing and production is relying on other people.

[Ryan Gruduski]

So, so you mean I totally. This is my last episode. I just done this podcast I just was on John Carney from Breitbart. If the Pentagon sat there and said we're only going to buy medicine Tylenol that is made 100 in America, guess what? We will be building Tylenol in America in a, in a minute. I mean it will happen overnight. And then if they sat there and said he make sure the government contract goes to Akron, Ohio or you know, Detroit or you know name name some Rust belt town has been destroyed by the WTO or nafta. You would have a aspirin factory hiring workers in Akron or in Allentown or in wherever, Detroit, Flint, wherever. And you would have jobs again in the blink of an eye for middle class and work class.

[Shermichael Singleton]

And Democrats have said well so you're advocating for higher prices with the potential promise of more jobs. And I would say well actually I personally believe you will see a reset. I think products would ultimately start to drop based on competitiveness because if you start having various manufacturers producing similar goods in the initial onset, you are going to have higher prices. I got to be honest about that. But, but that's going to lower itself over time. I mean this is basic economics. And so I just don't understand why we wouldn't advocate for this. And this is another thing. And I said this to a Democrat on CNN last week. I said you guys talk so much about being this, this great bastion for people of color, the Democratic Party that is. I said but you don't recognize how much the black middle class relied on manufacturing in this country. And there was not an answer. I said you decimated so many communities that you say you advocate for that have never recovered, Ryan. They've never recovered, man. How is that?

[Ryan Gruduski]

Look at Gary, Indiana now who would want to live there? I mean and that was like the. It's. But it's. You're right, you're 100% right. And on the prices thing I can only think of who gives a shit. One, we built, we, we buy toilet bowls for a million dollars for Iraq. And two, I mean but it's the truth. We do. No one cares if the government spends money like that crap gap. And two, if you just cut then taxes and you offer a tax cuts to these companies and you make it and you cut regulations for these companies, they save money on the end even if production costs are slightly higher and no one's gonna buy a 25 thing of aspirin. I mean, they're just not, there's, there's a limit on market prices. Businesses already charge the most they possibly can for what they're offering. They Democrats don't know anything about economics. And I, you know, I'm, I'm only on the edges, but I know more than they do.

[Shermichael Singleton]

For me, that's so just quickly, I just want to say so I want us to figure out how we're going to save more with the government. It's impossible to continue moving in the direction that we are. I'm really, really worried about brics. And not even just brics, even the European Union is saying, well, why does the dollar have to be the world currency? I mean, Ryan, when this stuff happens, and it's going to happen, we're not even prepared for this. And again, on the terrorist front, yes, it is a strategic tool. Do I think it would ultimately be long standing? No. But I would advise the president, you have got to stay firm on this to get some manufacturing back into this country. It would be a revitalization of American workers that we have never seen or we haven't seen, I would say in probably 30, 40 years. There's an opportunity to do it now. I just don't think it's going to happen. And that's disappointing to me.

[Ryan Gruduski]

Sure, Michael. This is why you're my aunt Carol's favorite person on cnn. She tells me all the time, she's like, sure, Michael's on. You got to turn on the tv. Sure, Michael. Where can people go to follow you on social media?

[Shermichael Singleton]

You can follow me on Instagram. Sure, Michael. Underscore, I think. And on X. Mr. Sure, Michael. Check out our new streaming platform. We, the free WTF TV. If you like guns, you like action oriented content, it is a place for you. We're growing really, really well. So I'm excited about what's to come for us.

[Ryan Gruduski]

Thank you so much for coming this podcast, Michael.

[Shermichael Singleton]

Thank you, bro. Proud of you, man. Thanks for having me.

[Ryan Gruduski]

Hey, we'll be right back after this.

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[Ryan Gruduski]

So on last week's show, I promised to just start a Question of Answer part of the podcast where I'll be taking questions from my listeners and answering them on air. And, you know, if you want to be part of the Q and A questions, ask me anything where I'll talk about stories, policy, data, anything. Email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's plural. Ryanumbersgame podcast.com and I could be answering your question next week. So my first question I want to do in the Ask me Anything segment, it comes from a guy named Scott. He says, hi, Ryan, my name is Scott. I'm in my mid-30s. I consider myself a principled and pragmatic conservative. Open a compromise on almost anything if it means progress in the right direction. My question is on Social Security. I know it's not electorally possible to campaign on reforming Social Security right now, but I'm wondering what's the numbers say about the sentiment among millennials and Gen Xers towards reforming Social Security and the near certainty that it will not be available for us in its current form by the time we reach retirement age? And if those numbers don't exist, why not? And what might change them? Okay, that's a great question, Scott. It's a lot, but I'll try to answer it pretty quickly and intact. First, the idea that Social Security is like there's a constant Social Security that basically this money goes into a lockbox. It builds interest and then we use it from the money that we get and we work towards it. We work towards Social Security is what you'll hear. That's not really true. First, there is no lockbox. The idea of a lockbox has been floated for decades. Al Gore was made a part of one of his main campaign themes back in the year 2000, that he created a trust fund to increase the amount of revenue, basically either through interest or through savings or through the market or something or other. At the time we were running about 150 to $200 billion a year surplus with Social Security. That was a big missed opportunity. It's still presented in Congress. Idea of this lockbox. Republican Tim Wahlberg, Republican from Michigan, he has proposed it, I think last, last, last Congress. But there's no lockbox versus security to invest it wisely. So that way people can cash out and it can make its own amount of money. Australia does this, by the way. Australia puts their money into investments in their mineral program. And it's allowed like it's a multi trillion dollar retirement fund that they have successfully done. There is a Social Security trust fund which is separate from the government's general funds, but it's not reinvested in the way that it could be to make it more solvent. Secondly, in 1960, the Supreme Court ruled in Flemings vs. Nestor that individual have no contractual or property rights when it comes to Social Security, meaning the government has every right to alter and suspend benefits at any time for individuals by their own will. There's. You have absolutely no right to it whatsoever. You're not paying into it. It is a tax program. Ronald Reagan mentioned this in the time for choosing speech. If you've ever listened to it. He's talking about that, that case. But unlike Medicare, Medicaid, there's a lot of solutions for very, for Social Security. I mean, Social Security is. Medicare and Medicaid are very, very complicated. Social Security is not as complicated. And there lot of people with a lot of different ideas from creating wealth funds to reducing benefits on high earning senior citizens like Oprah Winfrey. Why does she get a Social Security check? Increasing tax thresholds, increasing the retirement age. But your question was how do young people feel about Social Security? I did not know this before I looked this up. But according to more than one poll, the Harris Poll in 2024, Scott is not alone. Millennials are the generation that are the most worried. Read about Social Security and the solvency of Social Security. Now. Millennials are. Some people still think that we're 18, but we're in our early 30s to our early 40s. Now. 70% of millennials think that Social Security will be insolvent by the time that they receive retirement age. 36% of millennials believe that they will not get a dime of Social Security by the time they retire. A poll by Gallup found that millennials are the most pessimistic about collecting Social Security. 37% say they don't believe that they'll receive it when they retire. So it matches basically 36 and 37% between the Harris Poll and the Gallup Poll. One in three millennials do not think that it's going to be there. That's a lot for a very big generation. The most popular idea over all people for changing Social Security is increasing taxes on high on high income individuals. That's actually not the most popular idea among millennials. Only 39% of millennials favor increasing taxes on the rich to pay for Social Security either because they see that their highest income years are ahead of them and they think maybe I'll be rich by then. But that's a big, big reason why seniors are the most in favor of increasing taxes to pay for Social Security, which is not that surprising. A study by AARP and the Chamber of Commerce looked at the idea of a large package of trade offs, that being basically raising taxes, raising the payroll tax by 1%, reducing benefits on high income people. And that received broad support among everybody, 83% of millennials else favored this big, big trade off. So it's possible by the polling that they do favor something to sit there and make it work electorally. It's much, much more difficult. It's one of these issues been tried for a long, long, long time. And I think the only way we're going to get there is one, a crisis where they really can't pay for it, or two, they're going to have to have Republicans and Democrats hold hands and jump off the cliff together and make a broad change that everyone has to sit there and deal with. And hopefully it's a smart one and we make the program solvent for the future. Very important program as far as keeping seniors off the street and keeping them, you know, in their homes. But that's the only way I think we're going to do it. I think we're going to do it when there's a real crisis, when the rubber hits the road or maybe in a moment where everyone just breathes and you have, you know, AOC and Ted Cruz willing to work together. That's the only way that I could sit there and see this though. I hope this was a good answer to your question. If you have more questions, please once again email me for next week. I would love to answer them. And thank you again for listening to this podcast. Episode 12 thank you guys so so much. Please like and subscribe on iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. See you next week.

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