It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Rise of UK's Reform Party

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Rise of UK's Reform Party
Release Date: May 19, 2025
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts
Guests: Matthew Goodwin, British Academic and Political Analyst

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Introduction

In this episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, hosts Clay Travis and Buck Sexton delve into a profound shift in the United Kingdom's political landscape. Featuring an insightful conversation with Matthew Goodwin, a renowned British academic, the discussion centers on the meteoric rise of the UK's Reform Party and its implications both domestically and internationally.

Overview of the UK Political Landscape

[03:09] Ryan: "Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast with Brian Graduski. I am your host. Thanks for being here again this week."

Ryan introduces the main topic: the significant political changes in the UK, particularly focusing on immigration policies and the emergence of the Reform Party.

Historical Context: Labor and Conservative Parties

Matthew Goodwin provides a historical backdrop, tracing the UK's immigration policies from the mid-20th century to the present:

• Tony Blair's Tenure (1997-2007):
  "He fundamentally changed it. ... he wanted to rub the rights noses in diversity. That's the entire reason behind mass immigration."

  Under Blair, the Labour Party drastically increased immigration, doubling the foreign-born population from 3.6 million to 7.2 million in just 20 years, primarily for cultural diversification rather than economic necessity.

• Conservative Leadership and Brexit:
  David Cameron's brief attempt to curb immigration led to the unprecedented Brexit vote, reshaping the Conservative Party's stance and heightening public anxiety over immigration.

Brexit and Its Aftermath

The Brexit referendum, initiated by David Cameron to address immigration concerns, had far-reaching consequences:

• Public Sentiment:
  "Brexit was about many things, but immigration, sovereignty and the ability to control one's borders were the main reasons."

• Leadership Changes:
  Post-Brexit, the Conservative Party saw a rapid succession of leaders—Theresa May, Boris Johnson ("Bojo"), Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak—each struggling to manage immigration and party cohesion.

• Boris Johnson’s Policies:
  Despite a significant parliamentary majority, Johnson increased legal immigration to over 850,000 per year, disregarding his initial promises to control migration.

Rise of Nigel Farage and the Reform Party

Nigel Farage, a longstanding figure in UK politics, emerged as a pivotal force against both the Labour and Conservative parties:

• Historic Wins:
  "Nigel has just won the local municipal elections with the Reform Party, leading in opinion polls at over 30%."

• Public Frustration:
  "70% of Brits want net migration reduced below 100,000, with nearly half supporting net negative migration."

• Impact on Conservative Party:
  The Conservative Party, under leaders like Kemi Badenoch, has seen its popularity plummet to 16%, struggling to counter the Reform Party's surge.

Comparison with US Politics

The hosts draw parallels between the UK's political shifts and recent trends in the United States:

• Immigration as a Central Issue:
  Similar to how immigration played a crucial role in Donald Trump's rise, the Reform Party capitalizes on the UK's growing public concern over immigration.

• National Populism:
  "National populism is thriving across Europe, much like the resurgence seen in the US with Trumpian politics."

• Potential Implications:
  The transformation in UK politics serves as a cautionary tale for the US Democratic Party, highlighting the dangers of ignoring shifting public sentiments on immigration.

European Context and National Populism

Matthew Goodwin expands the discussion to a broader European perspective:

• Rise of National Populist Parties:
  "From the Netherlands to Germany, national populism is gaining traction as traditional parties fail to address migration effectively."

• ECHR and Migration Policies:
  The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) has historically limited the UK’s ability to deport migrants, impacting current policy reforms.

Future Projections and Implications

Looking ahead, the conversation explores potential scenarios and their ramifications:

• Nigel Farage as Prime Minister:
  "It's entirely plausible ... Nigel could become Prime Minister within the next few years, reflecting a major realignment in UK politics."

• Impact on the UK's Industrial Base:
  "We've closed our only steel factory and are importing resources, leading to deindustrialization under the current Labor government."

• Cultural and Demographic Shifts:
  "Young people in schools not speaking the native language and a declining sense of national identity are fueling populist sentiments."

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a stark warning about the future trajectory of the UK and its possible lessons for the United States:

• Political Realignment:
  "This is now really seeing the realignment go into turbocharged fast lane. There are winners like Nigel Farage and losers like the British establishment."

• Call to Action:
  Matthew Goodwin emphasizes the urgency for traditional parties to address immigration and national identity to prevent further political destabilization.

Notable Quotes

• Matthew Goodwin on Blair's Immigration Policy:
  "He wanted to rub the rights noses in diversity. That's the entire reason behind mass immigration." [05:33]

• On Brexit’s Impact:
  "Immigration was the main reason for Brexit, and once Brexit was successful, the Tories shuffled leadership because Cameron resigned after losing the EU vote." [06:00]

• Nigel Farage’s Transformation:
  "Nigel has effectively replaced the Conservatives already... He's the most consequential politician of our generation." [27:21]

• Public Opinion on Immigration:
  "85% of Brits want net migration reduced from where it is now." [22:17]

Key Takeaways

• Political Shift: The UK's political landscape is undergoing a seismic shift driven by immigration concerns, leading to the rise of the Reform Party.

• Role of Nigel Farage: Farage emerges as a central figure, capitalizing on public dissatisfaction with both traditional parties' handling of immigration.

• Comparative Politics: The UK’s experience mirrors trends in the US and broader Europe, underscoring the global rise of national populism.

• Future Implications: The episode serves as a warning for established political parties to address core societal issues proactively to maintain public support.

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For more insights and in-depth analysis on the UK's evolving political scene and its global implications, stay tuned to The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show.

Transcript

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[Ryan]

Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast with Brian Graduski. I am your host. Thanks for being here again this week. Lots of big news happening, especially in the podcasting world. And I just want to talk about something for a second. That it not political just made me laugh. The Golden Globes announced that they are going to give an award out now for best podcast starting next year. This is the first major award show to give an award out for podcasting and it is a big bag of BS in my opinion, because, you know, when you think of the biggest podcast host in the country, obviously, obviously I'm not the biggest podcast host in the country, but if you think of the biggest podcast host in the country is the Joe Rogans, the Theo Bonds, Megan Kelly, crime junkie, call her Daddy Ben Shapiro. You know, these massive, massive shows that have been on for years and have basically built the platform. None of them, in my opinion, are probably nominated like none of them. Because if you think about it, because Hollywood doesn't make a lot of movies anymore and TV shows are like 10 episodes long and it's just not what it used to be. Even a couple years ago, pre Covid, a lot of celebrities have moved to the podcasting world. So you have like Amy Poehler and Michelle Obama and Conan o' Brien and Jon Stewart. That's who's going to be nominated, not actual podcasters who work really hard and make the platform and do really, really good work with it. It will be people who are already famous and celebrities and they'll just find another way to reward them. I don't know. May my eye roll made me laugh. I thought it was very funny and I wanted to share with my audience. Anyway, lots of news happening in America with discussions over the tax bill, which I plan on covering hopefully later on in the week, and the Trump trip to Saudi Arabia, which I briefly covered last week. But something revolutionary is happening overseas, a truly revolutionary that really needs to be touched, happening in the United Kingdom. Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the Labor Party, that's the center left party, like our Democratic Party, has announced he's doing a major crackdown on immigration. Okay. This is significant because the Labor Party, like our Democratic Democratic Party, has spent decades being pedal to the metal for mass migration. Immigration in the UK was fairly stagnant for most of the 20th century. The former foreign born population from 1951 to 1991 doubled from 1.8 million to 3.6 million over 40 years. That's about 45,000 a year.

[Scott]

That's a lot.

[Ryan]

But it's not, you know, it's not unsustainable migration. Then came former Labor Prime Minister Tony Blair. Same party as Keir Starmer from 1997 to 2007 when he led the country. He was the Prime Minister during those years. He fundamentally changed it. Remember, it took 40 years to double a very small population of immigrants in the UK. He managed to double a larger population in just 20 years from 3.6 million to 7.2 million under his, under his leadership. After decades of having no more than 75,000 immigrants in a single year, a net immigration a single year, Blair increased to about a quarter of a million a year by his final year in office. And why he did that, why did he make such a dramatic transformation in a relatively small country with long standing traditions longer than our countries even existed? Well, according to people close to him, he said he wanted to rub the rights noses in diversity. That's the entire reason behind mass immigration. It was nothing to do with the economy or labor shortages or increasing the military or advancing technology. Nope, nothing. It was just to make Conservative people feel uncomfortable. That was the entire plan. The Conservative Party often called the Tories. So if you hear me say Tories, I'm referring to the Conservative Party. They are the traditional center right party of the uk our version of the Republicans. And they campaign on reducing immigration to historic levels. So after more than 10 years of the labor leadership, they finally won control of parliament in 2010 under David Cameron. So what did David Cameron do? Well, two years. For two years he kind of lowered them a little bit immigration a little bit. And then he rapidly increased it, even surpassing Tony Blair numbers. And that doesn't even go to the increased level of illegal immigration that was coming to the country which spiked because of the Arab Spring. When Angela Merkel of Germany led the whole third world into Germany, a lot of them made their way to the UK because they beautiful generous welfare policies and it was a wonderful place to live. So they managed to sit there and get there and the British public was fed up and a lot of them blamed the European Union on this. After all, Germany was the largest nation in the European Union, on the continent. The Angela Merkel was the face of the European Union at the time. And there's a lot of European regulations around migration that forbade them from deporting people and accepting people. Cameron decided to try to appease the British public. Prime Minister David Cameron tried to appease the British public by offering a vote on the country's membership to the eu. And to the shock of David Cameron and most of the media and the British public at large, the British voters voted to leave the eu. They voted for Brexit. And Brexit was about many things, but immigration, sovereignty and the ability to control one's borders were the main reasons. That's why that happened. And once Brexit was successful, the Tories shuffled leadership because Cameron resigned because he campaigned to stay in the European Union and he lost. And then they got Theresa May and you don't really remember her much except she was an awkward dancer, would dance for some reason in public. I kind of loved it. But it was, it was awkward anyway and then ultimately ended with Boris Johnson. Boris Johnson was oftentimes compared to Trump. He had a really messy personal life. He said crazy things a lot. He had vibrant blonde hair that was always very unique. And I. People call him Bojo. So I'm gonna say Bojo. While Bojo campaign on, quote unquote, getting Brexit done and finalizing the agreement with the European Union, he quietly blacked away from his pledge to lower levels of immigration. And despite having one of the largest parliamentary majorities in modern British history, the largest for the Tories since Margaret Thatcher in the 80s, he did nothing to help promote a conservative agenda. Seriously, if you want to feel good about the Republican Party, look up the Tories while Bojo was in charge of them. Johnson increased legal immigration, passed anything that, that Tony Blair and the Labour Party could have ever dreamed of. Net migration. Remember it was historically 45,000 increased to over 850,000 people per year. That, and remember this is a country that is a fifth of the population of the United States. It would be like the US quadrupling our legal immigration. And this happened under the Conservative Party, the center right party. Decades of promising, reducing immigration and he blew it out of the water. Boris Johnson ended up having to resign and his successor was one named Liz. Trust you might remember her, she lasted for less than, I think it was a head of lettuce. I think she lasted for seven weeks. And then there was Rishi Sunak, who was the previous Prime Minister. Rishi Sunak, as I call him, Britain's modern day Lady Macbeth because he sabotaged and backstabbed everybody to get the position of power. Only to lead the Tories to the largest defeat in modern history, where they lost two thirds of all their seats. But he's important, and it's important to mention Sunak before I mentioned the current prime minister. Most important thing Sunak did at the end of his time in office is once again, he also campaigned on reducing immigration and said he was going to do it right, unlike the other three Tory leaders and two labor leaders was he was going to crack down on illegal immigration by making a deal with the nation of Rwanda to house illegal immigrants. Kind of like how Trump is doing with El Salvador, because there was a mass problem with illegal immigration. They were a string of attacks, a string of crimes, some grooming gangs. He was going to solve this. Well, the courts struck him down almost immediately upon doing this, and it was because he was in violation of something called the echr. This is extremely important for anyone who likes to know about European politics. The ECHR is the European Convention on Human Rights. It was drafted back in the 50s, right after World War II. And it was basically to prevent countries from refusing admission to, you know, Jewish, prominently Jewish refugees, or sending them back to what would be like Nazi Germany to a concentration camp. And basically it said if a migrant, if a refugee would be at harmed in their native country, you cannot send them back. It's totally illegal to send someone back if they would be harmed in their country of origin. So let's say, let's say someone from Nigeria came to the uk, had a family there, and they went on to rape a bunch of young girls. He cannot be sent back to Nigeria if he states he'll be having political persecution there. That's a real story that really did happen. A Nigerian pedophile was not allowed to be deported after raping young girls because he said he would be. Life would be too hard for him in Nigeria. And the British courts agreed with him. Now, you could obviously see how that would upset the British public. It upsets me even talking about it. There's also called the Civil Rights act, that's something that Tony Blair put in, that also has series of different regulations and rules about who you can deport when there's something called like people have a right to a family. So if you have a family there in Britain, then that would mean you probably can't be deported unless you commit a very serious heinous act. Apparently rape is not one of them. But Sunak was adamant that the ECHR had to go. He's promised to sit there and campaign against it and never did. And that leads us to our current prime minister, Keir Starmer, the one who's in office right now, the Labor Party, who's announcing he's doing all these immigration policies. A lot of these immigration policies seem common sense to the average person. He's going to increase the wait time to declare citizenship. You have to wait to 10 years now instead of five. He has restrictions on visas. You have to know English fluently in order to be live in England. Seems pretty obvious. And he announced he wants to start to do a Rwanda plan. He wants to do his own Rwanda plan. The same plan he campaigned against, the same plan the courts sat there and said you can't do under the echr, which he said he's going to reform. I will hold my breath for that. Why? I think that's the question that leads you to sit there and say why? Why would the Labor Party, why would Keir Starmer of the Labor Party, the far left, sit there and be co signing this now? Because on May 1, a very important thing happened. The Labor Party got obliterated in local elections, but they didn't lose to the Tories, they lost to Nigel Farage. I'm sure my audience knows who Nigel Farage is. For those who don't, he's very closely aligned to Trump. He's been on American media a ton. He has a party called Reform UK Party. It is hated by the British establishment and the media, just like Trump was hated here. And he was in the political wilderness for decades. Nigel ran for Parliament seven times and lost all seven times. He was considered a joke until the last election when he finally won. He won along with four other reform UK parties and they've won another seat since then in a by election and a special election, essentially. He is now polling in first place at over 30% in a country with seven political parties. He will be. If this election were held tomorrow, he would be the Prime Minister, which was considered an impossibility just a few years ago. It would be like going back in a time machine to 2013 and hearing Donald Trump will be your president in the next few years and you laughing at the person. Anyone would have laughed at the person. I would have laughed at the person. Like that Seems like it's impossible in 2013. And by 2016, the situation had changed so dramatically and so badly that anyone with a compelling message like that obviously was going to win. And to, you know, to take from a British term, Nigel Farage is scaring the living piss out of Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. So that's why he's changing his tune on immigration. Why does it matter to an American audience? For the same reason that the transformational Labor Party could indicate the transformation of the Democratic Party. The Labor Party is so woke. England is so woke that they still on certain soccer games. This is true as like two weeks ago at certain soccer games, they still kneel. For George Floyd in the uk, this is a woke country. This is a woke elite, a woke establishment, a woke political party. And if they are sitting there and saying we need to get right on immigration, can the Democratic Party be next? My guest this week is a brilliant professor from the UK who's going to tell us what's happening there and what could happen here. Stay tuned.

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[Scott]

Matthew Goodwin is a British academic, a writer. He is a brilliant substack that I use to get all my insights on the uk, their politics, their culture, what's going on on the on on our mother country. I cannot recommend enough. It can be [e-mail] Matt, thank you for being here.

[Matthew Goodwin]

Thank you for having me. It's great to connect.

[Scott]

Now Matt, first question. Prime Minister Starmer has announced a series of new restrictions on migration, from increasing the wait time to apply for citizenship to closing loopholes in the ACHR and talking about even reopening the Rwanda deportation centers. How much of this is sincere and how much is just fear of that? Nigel Farage and what are the chances.

[Ryan]

Labor actually goes with it?

[Matthew Goodwin]

So I think there are a couple of things going on here. The first is our political system has been completely transformed by the rise of, as you say, Nigel Farage and the Reform Party, which is currently number one in the opinion poll. This is the most significant political insurgency since the rise of the Labour Party in the early 20th century. It's really, really big. Nigel Farage and his party just won the local elections, local municipal council elections in the country. They became the first party in history to finish ahead of Labour and the Conservatives in those elections. So look, this is a very, very significant moment. But the reality is that Keir Starmer and the Labour Party are also responding to a very different public mood for the first time since the vote for Brexit, which Americans will remember because it was Only a few months before the election of Donald Trump. The first election of Trump in 2016. For the first time since then, immigration is now the number one issue in British society. According to YouGov, which is a reliable pollster, immigration is now seen by voters as being more important than the economy. And that is reflecting these unprecedented, historic levels of migration that we have had into the country, particularly since the COVID pandemic. We've had about 2 to 3 million people migrate into what is quite a small island in just a few years, mainly low skill, low wage migration. So what Piers Simon and Labour are trying to do is not just fend off the threat of Nigel Farage and a Reform Party who are doing particularly well in labor areas in what you guys would call flyover country, the Rust Belt, all of that sort of stuff. Similar here, working class areas. That's the core for this Reform Party. But Kirsten is also saying, look, we've got a country here that is increasingly concerned about the immigration issue, very anxious about the direction of the country, and he's also trying to get his arm to ramp wide.

[Scott]

But I mean, labor, some Labor Party members have pushed back and say they don't want to go forward with it. They said you can't out Farage. Farage. I mean, will they be successful in pushing out, you know, Starmer or pushing Starmer away from this?

[Matthew Goodwin]

Well, I see a lot of parallels with the US Debate, to be frank.

[Ryan]

Right.

[Matthew Goodwin]

Remember, in the early days of Trump, a lot of people said, you know, this strategy isn't going to work. Going hard on border security, going hard on immigration. There were all kinds of people, pollsters, Democrats, even moderate Republicans, who were saying, the times have moved on. This is a strategy that will only win among angry old white men. And it's the past. Trump obviously outflanked the whole system through that strategy and he realized there was something else going on in the country. I see a parallel with Britain because if you look at the pro immigration attitude of the labor activists who are complaining about Keir Starmer, those attitudes are basically 10 to 15% of the country, maximum, if I'm being generous. We had one opinion poll this week that showed 85% of Brits, 85% want net migration reduced from where it is now. So 730,000 people every year, meaning nearly a million more people coming into the country than leaving every year. The Brits want that reduced below 100,000. And nearly half of all Brits want net migration reduced to zero or net negative migration, meaning more people leaving than coming here. So if you basically are a labor activist thinking I'm comfortable with the state quote, in fact, I want more immigration. According to that poll, you are basically representing 5% of Britain. Just 5% of Brits are basically comfortable with where things are. The vast majority want to dramatically reduced migration. So Farage is swimming in some very, very favorable waters. I would argue he's got the biggest political market that he's had at any point in his career. But for the Labor Party, you can see the tensions because they're not really going to win back reform voters because reform voters see through Keir Starmer. They know that this is political rhetoric. It's not actually supported by robust policy. But they're also alienating those pro immigration fanatics who are going to start to go off to the Greens and to the Liberal Democrats and to parties on the left. So, yeah, we're seeing real historic change.

[Scott]

Here because while Starmer is made of this announcement, he also had a free was a free migration policy with India that he just announced to actually increase migration to India. While he's saying he's going to crack down, it it's very.

[Ryan]

We see a lot of that in the States too.

[Scott]

I want to ask about Nigel Farage because he's probably the most well known British politician in America. He's a ton of American media. He's very close to Donald Trump for a while and I don't think Americans understood he was considered a joke by the British media and by the British public. He ran, I think for office seven times while losing before joining member parliament.

[Ryan]

With reform UK party.

[Scott]

Why has this moment launched him, a man who's been around for decades and what are labor and Tories Tories trying.

[Ryan]

To do to stop him?

[Matthew Goodwin]

The first thing to say about Nigel Farage is that he's going to go down as one of the most consequential politicians in the modern era. Remember, this is a guy who has already won two nationwide elections with two different political parties. He won the 2014 European elections with his first party, the UK Independent Party. He then came back after the Brexit referendum with the Brexit party to make sure that Brexit was implemented. He won the 2019 European elections with the Brexit Party and now he's just won the local municipal elections with the Reform Party. So look, and by the way, he helped deliver the Brexit vote. So he is hands down the most consequential politician of, I would argue, our generation. He's a sort of modern day WAT Tyler, the Man who led the Peasants Revolt against London many centuries ago. And he is a very charismatic politician. The reason he's back, let's be clear about this, is because I know Nigel very well and he once told me that he looked at politics like he used to look at the stock market. Okay? He buys the stock when they're cheap and he tends to cash out when the stock is surging. And I think what happened a year ago is he looked around at the political landscape. He looked at this big debate over immigration, the small boat crisis, illegal migration, crisis on the border, which is quite similar to your migration crisis on the southern border. I think he looked at the Labour Party. I think he looked at Kemi Badenoch, the new leader of the Tories, and I think he just thought, this whole thing is wide open. I'm going to come back, I'm going to lead the Reform Party, and I'm going to pull together a coalition that's bigger and better than anything I've had previously. And everyone in Westminster, always, routinely, they laugh at Nigel, they mock, they insult, they're dismissive. But as he once said in the European Parliament, they're not laughing now because he's number one in the opinion polls. He has effectively. Ryan replaced the Conservatives already.

[Scott]

They're scared the piss out of him. He's scared the piss out of him.

[Matthew Goodwin]

Speaking now, as you and I speaking now in the national polls, Reform are on 31%. The conservatives under Kemi Badenoch are on 16%. So this is really an important point. What we're witnessing is the death of one of the most successful and oldest political parties in the history of democracy. And Americans really should. They'll know what's going on here because what the Conservatives represent is that kind of Mitt Romney old Republican coalition that never moved with the times. And what Nigel represents is that Trumpian manga, more anigiotic, anti establishment, anti immigration alternative. The Tories have refused to lean into or deal with this realignment in the way that Trump did. And now Nigel's the big beneficiary of that. So we're seeing this remarkable coalition coming together.

[Ryan]

Yeah.

[Scott]

And it's so odd from. From an American who reads and follows British politics. Boris Johnson in 2021 had a gigantic majority, or 2019, whatever the year of the election was, majority surge of support, biggest since Margaret Thatcher, and had the wherewithal, had the ability to really do whatever he wanted. Britain is not like America where we have a Senate and 60 votes. If you have a majority in the Parliament, you can basically do almost anything you want. And from two tier policing to immigration to, I mean, he didn't have even a coherent policy where he demanded to be Singapore in the Thames. The idea of having like London be like Singapore and have mass migration, he kind of had no central plan. And the Conservative Party withered in real time from almost the apex of their political power since the 80s to nothing in a matter of five years, six years.

[Matthew Goodwin]

Well, absolutely. I mean, Boris Johnson, it's not quite fair to say he didn't do anything. What he did do was he imposed a liberal agenda on the Conservative Party. That's basically what Boris Johnson did. He liberalized the immigrated Cisco. He opened the floodgate. And remember, in 2019, he was very clear. He said, I will lower overall numbers and I will regain control of the borders. He put the numbers to the highest level that we've ever seen. We call it the Boris wave here in the country. A wave of low skill and low wage migration from outside of Europe. But he also lost control of the borders at the same time. Boris Johnson basically reinvented Nigel Farage's career. Nigel Farage is really representing the revenge of voters on the Conservative Party that sold them down the river. In fact, many Americans don't know this, but if you think Boris Johnson is like a Winston Churchill figure, you're smoking something very strong. Let me put it like that. Because what Boris Johnson did, you know what he did, he even removed the requirement for British companies to advertise jobs in Britain before they advertised for those jobs overseas. Now, Winston Churchill would have been appalled by Boris Johnson's like, if Winston Churchill was around today, a bit like Margaret Thatcher, I suspect that they would be voting for the Reform Party, not for the Tories. I mean, this is a party that has really fundamentally lost touch with the country because it's so far left on these cultural issues. It refuses to do whatever is necessary to regain control of our borders. That Nigel Farage has got this enormous amount of space to move and operate in. And I would predict that if you and I were to have another conversation like this at the end of this year, at the end of 2025, I would predict with some confidence that not only will reform be even stronger in the national poll, but they will have a number of prominent Conservative Party defectors.

[Scott]

I was going to ask you about that because I've heard rumors that Rees MOG is considering and that other people are considering joining the Reform Party from my friends overseas. So I would, I, I had the. I've heard the same thing. I know, Suella Braveman's had many conversations, but that's been public anyway. But I've heard private conversations existed as well. So I went up.

[Matthew Goodwin]

There was a fantastic British show back in the day before, before Kevin Spacey was involved, called House of Khan. And as you know, one of the lines in that show film down the road from where I'm speaking to you now in Westminster is you might think that I couldn't possibly comment.

[Scott]

Okay, that's very good. You track. You, you have track. I have your book actually right here. You've tracked national populism throughout the globe. You wrote the first book before I even wrote my book. And it was a big inspiration for me. The we have seen this narrative against of centrist parties and politicians. They're paying lip service against mass migration. Before Uncle Merkel said multiculturalism was a failure, before she opened the floodgates, David Cameron so they would reduce immigration. Croton said that he was not Macron before Sarkozy said he was against immigration. None of it ever happened, none of it ever did anything. And now we're seeing Mertz in Germany, we're seeing Macron in France, we're seeing Starmer in the UK sit there and say they're going to finally do something on immigration and multiculturalism. Is this, is this exactly 10 years ago or is it. Has the center of the political dynamics changed such because the rise of national populism that they will do something?

[Matthew Goodwin]

So my, my broad view of this is in 2015, 2016, the rise of populist party was essentially an invitation to the establishment to make a compromise on these issues around migration. They refused to do that. Fast forward 10 years to where we are now and those parties have only become stronger everywhere. Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Italy, uk With reform, Trump's back in the White House. I mean, basically, if you look at the map of Western politics, national populism is really at it.

[Scott]

It's Return of a Jedi.

[Matthew Goodwin]

And I would suspect that that will continue so long as we are dealing with these record rates of migration and the refusal of the liberal political class to make a compromise with these parties. If you look, for example, at what's happening in Germany, it's nothing short of remarkable. The alternative for Germany is number one in the opinion polls recently. And the establishment has basically done whatever it can to refuse to allow the AfD into power. It's already done a U turn on the promises to clamp down on migration. And again, you see this refusal to compromise with the voters who were saying, I'm not going to live like this. I mean, I've gone on a political journey over the last five years because I've been, I guess, like many voters out there, absolutely appalled. The refusal of people in the establishment just to do very simple things like control who comes in and out of the country, lower the overall rate of migration, clamp down on radical Islamism. You know, Germany is now having almost weekly terrorist attacks, cars driving through market, the neighborhood. You know, nobody wants to live this way. And the public debate, I think Ryan, is also shifting in that now. If you spend any time online around a European political theme, there are very many people now just calling for deportation or policies like remigration. I was speaking to the Austrian Freedom Party yesterday. They campaign openly on the policy of. So the public mood here is really changing quite rapidly as well. And again, that's a reflection. This is all a reflection of the very deliberate political choices that were taken by politicians during the 2000s and the 2010s.

[Scott]

A couple years ago in the UK it would have been thought of as. You would have been laughed at if you would have said not Nigel Farage. Is Farage as a real chance of.

[Ryan]

Ever being prime minister.

[Scott]

That seems like it's a real. A real possibility in our near future in the UK if things continue as they are right now. Is there a world truly where we wake up in five years from now, in 2030? Jordan Bardella is the president of France. Farage is the premise of the uk.

[Ryan]

The APT is the largest party in Germany, and Giorgio Maloney has the most stable government in all of Europe. In Italy.

[Matthew Goodwin]

Well, of course, it's entirely plausible. You just look at the opinion poll at the moment. For Nigel Farage to get there, he basically needs to maintain his current trajectory. He needs to follow Donald Trump in getting a team of people around him. Trump was very clever, I think, with the likes of rfk, Tosa Gabbard and Sam Rubio. Tosa Gabbard, Elon Musk, just to sort of project a coalition of people. I think Nigel needs to do that and I think that will happen. You know, there are. I'll be frank, Ryan. You know, there are question marks over.

[Ryan]

You know.

[Matthew Goodwin]

How easy is it for an insurgent outside a party to transition to an insider party of government? There are some very real challenges there that will need to be eyed out. But everything you just pointed to is entirely possible. Look, if you said for me that Gerwilda would essentially be controlling the Netherlands or the Sweden Democrats would essentially be controlling Sweden 10 years ago, I would have laughed I would have said it's just not going to happen. But such is the pace of demographic change in Europe and that's what it's about. It's not really the economy. The pace of demographic change is the fact that 60% of young people in schools in Vienna, Austria don't speak German. It's the fact that one in four kids in Britain's primary schools don't speak English as their main language. You know, these kinds of things that are making people get up and say, rightly or wrongly, I'm losing my country. I feel as though actually this civilizational. It's not even about the, it's not about the detail of policy anymore. It's this sense of, well, I'm losing the thing that I recognize. I'm losing my identity, my community, my sense of history. And I think, obviously, you know, we've had multiculturalism in Europe for, you know, 20, 30 years, but already now, 15 years on from David Cameron saying multiculturalism has failed, Nicola Sarkozy, Angela Merkel, they've all come out and said to say 15 years on, no frontline politician has articulated what is the successor, what is the next policy framework to multiculturalism. All they've given people is more migration with no integration. And I don't think that's sustainable.

[Scott]

And at the same time, you've had this immense demographic change. You've had very prominent people on the left saying, very, having very genocidal language about whites and saying that whites don't belong basically anywhere. I mean, you have the conversation right now on South Africans that they have no historical representation, the Africars in South Africa. It's just, it's, it's insane. I have one last question for you is are we ever going to see a Matt Goodwin stand up for a parliamentary seat?

[Matthew Goodwin]

You might think that I couldn't possibly comment. All I say, let me just say one thing though. It is quite an important point. I did say recently on X, I said my reaction as I pivoted away from academia into the public debate. I think we probably have two national elections to save the uk, to genuinely turn it around. And Elon Musk actually was one of the people who popped up in the replies and he said, no, you have one election left to save the uk And I think it's that sort of sense of if we really don't tackle the fundamental suit, leave the European Convention on Human Rights reform, Tony Blair's legislative legacy, have an immediate freeze of mass uncontrolled immigration, reassert our sense of identity if we don't really get a government that is going to do a kind of Trump style, you know, shock and awe kind of political campaign. It's very, very difficult to see how the country gets out of what we're living in which is decline. I mean I always run into Americans in London always say the same thing which is well, I haven't been to the UK in many years and to be honest with you, I'm shocked by what I see.

[Scott]

I can't believe that the UK lost their last steel manufacturer. I, I, I, I'm, I can't believe it.

[Ryan]

I, I don't know.

[Scott]

I asked one of my British friends the other day, James Johnson, I asked him what does the UK produce? And he said we have really good universities. And I said oh that's not a good sign. That's.

[Matthew Goodwin]

Well, absolutely. We've not only closed our, our only steel factory but we're now importing and we've closed our coal factories. We're now importing coal and else and other resources at twice the while pursuing net zero insanity and de industrializing much of our working class community. Then often that's happening under a Labor government. I mean that's what's so absolutely outrageous about this. The labor government that's smashing the working class apart. I mean that's why Nigel Farage is the most popular politician among the working class, why many of his counterparts across Europe are doing very well among blue collar workers. So look, you and I both know if we step back we know that the political realignment that you and I talked about, you know, years ago, I remember that conversation while talking about the ongoing reshaping of western politics. This is now really seeing the realignment go into turbocharged. It's now basically moving into fast lane. There are winners of that, there are beneficiaries of that like Nigel barrage the and there are losers of that like the British story. Right.

[Scott]

Well I'm sure the media will handle it. I'm sure the media will handle this change ex with the most care and responsibility, not be hyperbolic at all. Matthew, where can people go to read your stuff? Beside you have backupin.org which is great. I highly recommend your sub stack. Where else Go read your stuff.

[Matthew Goodwin]

Yeah that, that's the main outlet. We're, we're obviously we're on all social media platforms too and likewise we learn a lot from your pieces. So great to touch base with you and I wish you and all of your readers and listeners a really great, a really great time and you know, please open up an asylum route for Brits fleeing Keir Starmer's Britain. Do please. I will be the first in the queue.

[Scott]

Thank you so much for being here. I really appreciate it.

[Matthew Goodwin]

Thanks, Scott.

[Scott]

Hey, we'll be right back after this.

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[Ryan]

And now for the Ask me anything segment of the show. If you want to be part of the ask me anything segment, you could email me Ryan numbers game.com Sorry, that's wrong. You could email me at. I'm not even going to edit that. Just leave that in ryan numbers game podcast.com email me at ryan numbers game podcast.com I'd love to get your questions. I'd love to sit there and answer them. This one actually came a guy named Fred who said, hey, would you think that the Democratic Party would ever nominate a Jew, specifically Governor Shapiro from Pennsylvania? That is a great question. There is especially Governor Shapiro is a very strong supporter of the nation of Israel. He's a Zionist. As far as I could tell, he's a Zionist. I don't know if he said that word explicitly, but he is a big supporter of Israel and I think that he doesn't stand a chance partly because of it. I think there is a deep, deep seated belief of anti Semitism, a deep trait of anti Semitism going on in the Democratic Party right now. I think it's very real. I think it comes from the fact that Democrats have been trained that whiteness is the enemy and they equate Jews with being white, white and Palestinians with being brown. And they understand only the oppressor, oppressee complex. That's the only thing that they truly understand. I don't have a lot of strong feelings about the personal politics of what goes on in Israel. I'm not extremely well read and I know a little bit, but I don't know enough to sit there and speak on it publicly. That being said, October 7th was a terrorist attack. And however Israel wants to respond to a massacre like that is essentially pretty okay with me. I mean, with within limits, but essentially okay with me. And I think with Most people following October 7th in the Democratic Party, they look at, you know, the, the retaliation to October 7th as a war crime and they think of Benjamin Yahoo as a war criminal. And I think that anyone who takes too fervent of a stand to on him will be a problem. And also this is the last point I want to make. I've talked about this a number of times on television and on this podcast we talked about Immigrationist podcast. We bring in so many Muslim immigrants into this country every year and their birth rate is high enough that we are probably within the decade, maybe a decade and a half, we'll have more Muslims living in this country than Jews and their political weight will matter more. They will be in states like Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, swing states, swing states that matter. And in order to win those votes, you will need to appeal more to Palestine than to Israel. And I think that is a calculation in the minds of many, many Democrats. So I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think they'll support Josh Piro for that reason. And I think going in long term, in the long term future, I think that progressive Jewish Democrats who have spent their entire career bashing Christians and whites and everything else will will look back at our mass migration that they have supported endlessly and realize it is the undoing on a lot of things that on the undoing of of the strongest support of Israel ever had. So but that's sad, but that's what I believe will happen. It's a little bit of a downer to end the podcast, but it is what I feel and what I believe and I just give you the truth as it is. So please be part of the Numbers Game Podcast questionnaire. Email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com ryanumbersgame podcast.com or tweet me and I will try to answer your questions next week. Please like and subscribe on this podcast in the iHeartRadio app. Apple podcast. Wherever you get your podcast, if you're feeling generous, give me a five star review. I appreciate you all. Talk to you on Thursday.

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[Ryan]

Listening to an iheart podcast.