The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Rising Violent Threats in America
Date: September 15, 2025
Host: Ryan Graduski (guest hosting the show/podcast segment)
Overview
This episode explores the rising tide of political violence in America, the media’s role, how statistics are reported and misrepresented, and the human impact felt especially within the conservative movement after the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Using polling data, historical context, and personal anecdotes, Ryan Graduski examines shifts in societal safety, public fears, and the dangers of divisive rhetoric, culminating in a call for social media accountability and civic responsibility.
Main Discussion Points
1. Current Political Climate & Polling Data
[03:53-06:00]
- Ryan Graduski opens with new polling data from Beacon and Shaw (published by Fox News), emphasizing the need to distinguish the pollsters from media outlets to avoid dismissing data based on perceived political bias.
- Key poll findings:
- Donald Trump: 46% favorability, 54% unfavorability (excluding undecided voters).
- Trump's strengths with voters: immigration, border security, and crime.
- Weak points: cost of living, economy, Russia/Ukraine, tariffs.
- The economy overwhelmingly ranks as the primary voter issue (40%), with immigration a distant second (13%).
- Raises the impact of rising energy and food prices, especially with the spread of data centers, and predicts the issue intensifying for 2026 midterms.
Notable Quote
“The economy is the most important issue to voters’ minds by like a mile…40% say that the economy is number one. Immigration is a very, very distant second with 13.”
— Ryan Graduski [05:44]
2. The Aftermath of Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
[06:01-13:00]
- The assassination of Charlie Kirk is described as a pivotal event, sharply differing from other “manufactured” political controversies.
- Graduski shares anecdotal evidence of increased public anxiety, even among strangers at conservative gatherings.
- Surge in followers for Kirk, his widow Erica, and Turning Point USA; over 32,000 requests to start new college chapters in response.
- Notes a rise in church attendance, at least anecdotally, in the aftermath—"something feels different, and not just among conservatives, but people in general."
- Expresses the conservative community’s increasing sense of being individually targeted, referencing personal experiences with threats and doxxing post-CNN appearance.
Notable Quote
“The only difference between Charlie and us is how big of a target we have… It’s not a question of if there’s a target, it’s how big.”
— Ryan Graduski [12:09]
3. Historical Parallels & Lessons: Political Violence in America
[13:00-17:36]
- Graduski draws comparisons between today and the “Days of Rage” in the 1960s-70s, referencing the eponymous book by Bryan Burrough.
- Notes the extreme violence from leftist groups in that era (e.g., Weathermen Underground, Black Panthers, BLA, Puerto Rican Independence Army), including 2,500 bombings across 18 months.
- Points out that, although violence was more widespread then, the underlying grievances and radicalization methods share contemporary echoes—particularly identity politics and college-based activism.
- Distinguishes between the legitimacy of grievances around racism in the 60s/70s and what he sees as the media's current amplification of less justified claims.
- Cites famous assassinations (JFK, RFK, MLK, Malcolm X, Milk, etc.), then notes a significant gap before the most recent major right-wing media figure (Charlie Kirk).
Notable Quote
"During an 18-month period from 1971 to 1972, there were 2,500 bombings… Bombings happened so frequently, almost five per day, that the media didn’t even frequently publish them unless people died.”
— Ryan Graduski [15:03]
4. Flawed Data and the Underreporting of Left-Wing Violence
[21:28-25:00]
- Criticizes organizations like the ADL and Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) for unreliable tracking of hate groups and violence, accusing them of minimizing or omitting left-wing incidents.
- References the University of Cincinnati's Prosecution Project, which undercounts left-wing violence due to non-prosecution by "activist" DAs during the 2020 riots.
- Calls for real, unbiased research into political violence to prevent “narrative capture” by ideologically motivated groups.
Notable Quote
“This is the space that right wingers actually need to fill if we’re going to have this conversation… Otherwise organizations that promote progressive ideology get to create the narratives.”
— Ryan Graduski [23:19]
5. Lone Wolves, Copycat Attacks, and Escalating Rhetoric
[25:00-34:00]
- Explains the shift from organized group violence (militias, etc.) to 'lone wolf' attacks radicalized online, often spurred by high-profile murders or media coverage.
- Example: The assassin of Charlie Kirk allegedly copied previous political killings, including distinct features like engraved bullet casings.
- Cautions that media amplification leads to more copycats, referencing the legacy of Columbine.
- Rutgers University poll: 21% of left-leaning respondents say violence/murder of Donald Trump would be justified—“alarming even if not a majority, since millions could be radicalized.”
- Shares examples of radical rhetoric, both from progressive commentators (Hassan Piker: “let streets soak in their red capitalist blood”) and mainstream politicians (Kamala Harris, AOC, etc.) labeling political opponents “fascists”.
Notable Quotes
“What I fear is going to come out of Charlie Kirk’s assassination is copycat killings, especially given that violence is increasingly being justified on the left.”
— Ryan Graduski [29:47]
“There is a dehumanization of the right going on in this country… Democrats are not your enemies, they are your adversaries, but they’re your countrymen.”
— Ryan Graduski [32:21]
6. Transgender Involvement & Media Blind Spots
[34:00-36:30]
- Raises claims of a ‘trans cult’ linked to six murders, and an over-representation of transgender/nonbinary individuals among mass shooters (since 2018) relative to their population share.
- Calls for serious study and data from federal authorities instead of reliance on right-wing rhetoric or anecdotal evidence.
7. Patterns, Social Media Radicalization, and Solutions
[36:30-38:38]
- Political violence is no longer declining as in the Obama era—it's rising, and the big difference is social media.
- Predicts 2025 will have the most death threats against elected officials ever (15,000+).
- Political violence isn’t isolated to Washington, D.C.—Cornell study: 393 counties have had incidents.
- Mentions social contagion, mental illness, and the risk of radicalization especially on Discord/message boards.
- Calls for social media companies to be held responsible, suggesting Section 230 be reexamined by Congress.
Notable Quote
“Social media companies need to be held responsible for what is happening… Congress needs to change Section 230. These are not just blanket publishers—they have to be responsible.”
— Ryan Graduski [37:59]
Ask Me Anything Segment
[42:30-48:46]
Iowa Special Election and Democratic Overperformance
- Question from Erica in Utah about the recent Iowa special election loss in a double-digit Trump district.
- Analysis: Democratic overperformance is a trend in specials, not a one-off; linked to older, more politically engaged, college-educated Democratic voters.
- Challenges for Republicans: Lower turnout among non-college and young voters, reliance on Election Day voting, dislike of early voting.
- Solution: GOP needs to adopt early voting and broader turnout efforts, highlighting its importance for future midterms.
Notable Quote
“You have to color with every crayon in the box. Early voting is part of that equation. Republicans don’t like it, but it is.”
— Ryan Graduski [46:22]
Key Memorable Moments & Quotes
- “[Charlie's] murder has had a profound impact on people in a way that’s not like these other events… Strangers who I did not know were walking up to me wanting to talk about Charlie.” [07:32]
- “The only difference between Charlie and us is how big of a target we have… It’s not a question of if there’s a target, it’s how big.” [12:09]
- “During an 18-month period from 1971 to 1972, there were 2,500 bombings.” [15:03]
- “Politically targeted attacks have become more partisan and mostly committed by lone wolves… Many are copycat killers.” [27:31]
- “Social media companies need to be held responsible for what is happening… They have to be responsible over what people are sharing online.” [37:59]
Timestamps for Important Segments
- [03:53] – Polling data, Trump’s strengths & weaknesses with voters
- [06:01] – Impact of Charlie Kirk’s assassination; anecdotal reports
- [13:00] – U.S. history: domestic terrorism and political violence
- [21:28] – Flaws in tracking political violence; critique of mainstream sources
- [25:00] – Lone wolf attacks, media copycat effect, and Rutgers poll
- [34:00] – Transgender involvement in mass violence and federal data gaps
- [36:30] – Social media’s unprecedented role, policy recommendations
- [42:30] – Ask Me Anything: lessons from the Iowa election
Tone & Style
Ryan Graduski speaks with a mix of urgency, personal vulnerability (sharing his own experiences with threats and fears), and staunch political opinions. His approach is direct, sometimes caustic, and designed to both inform and rally conservative listeners while candidly acknowledging uncomfortable truths about rising violence and the risk of political rhetoric on all sides.
Summary
This episode dissects not only the numbers behind violent political threats in the United States but also the deep societal currents driving them. Ryan Graduski argues that both historical cycles and modern media play key roles, especially after the high-profile assassination of Charlie Kirk. He urges a recalibration of rhetoric, greater scrutiny of statistical sources, bipartisan condemnation of violence, and — above all — accountability for tech platforms to stop the radicalization pipeline. Concluding in the Ask Me Anything segment, the episode ties electoral consequences to the climate of fear and activism, warning listeners to adapt strategies if the right is to remain electorally competitive and physically safe.