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Ryan Graduski
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Ryan Graduski
Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. I'm your host and very happy to be here. I hope you enjoyed my conversation with Alex Thompson on his book Original Sin.
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That came out on Monday.
Ryan Graduski
I was excited because I was one.
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Of only two conservatives to get an.
Ryan Graduski
Interview about the book the first week it came out. So that was, that was great. If you didn't catch the episode, it came out Memorial Day, so you can listen on whatever streaming platform you're on. I took part in a debate on.
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Tuesday for the group Young Voices. I debated Michael Tracy on the Trump administration's first four months and if the America first agenda was a net positive.
Ryan Graduski
For Americans, economic prosperity, security and civil liberties.
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It was an Oxford style debate, so I couldn't like tell jokes in the little bit. It's very serious.
Ryan Graduski
But the audience voted before and after. Whose minds had changed? Most people.
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And I won, which was exciting because the room was like mostly libertarians and.
Ryan Graduski
Liberals, so arguing in favor of, you.
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Know, tariffs and mass deportation, not the easiest thing to do.
Ryan Graduski
But I won, so I was excited. And if you don't, if you want.
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To watch the debate somewhere online, it's.
Ryan Graduski
On social media somewhere, I think it's on X. And you can go to Young Voices.
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Or my Twitter account and you can watch the full debate. It's a little boring. Michael Tracy talked a lot about Israel.
Ryan Graduski
But, you know, whatever, I kept it, kept it, kept it to the, to.
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The numbers because that's what I'm interested in.
Ryan Graduski
So there are two big number data things that were out this week that I want to talk to listeners about. It's a solo episode, but I think there's a lot of data, heavy stuff that really, it would be hard to find a guest who was as interested.
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In as I was.
Ryan Graduski
So the first is this map that.
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Came out from the New York Times. Over the week. The New York Times tracked every county in the country and how it moved towards Republicans while Trump was the nominee in the last three elections compared to.
Ryan Graduski
2012, and how counties moved in the.
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Last three elections towards Democrats since Trump became the nominee.
Ryan Graduski
So they're triple red or triple blue counties.
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That's how I'm describing them. Right. Triple red being they move towards Trump more in every single election. Triple blue is obviously moved away from Trump and towards Democrats in every election.
Ryan Graduski
Okay.
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All told, there were 1,433 counties that.
Ryan Graduski
Moved to the right in every one.
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Of the last three elections.
Ryan Graduski
Now, now remember, there are only 3143.
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Counties total in the country. So Trump increased his support in every election in 45% of all the counties in the country. Democrats on the other hand, only had a continual gain in 57 counties. Now obviously we know that all counties aren't made equal, right? Some are more populated, some are wealthier.
Ryan Graduski
Whiter, blacker, Hispanic, more Hispanic, more working class, whatever. But that is wild. That is a huge, huge difference in general trajection from one party to the other.
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Average triple blue county, right?
Ryan Graduski
The average county that moved away from Trump in last three elections, the average.
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Triple blue county had an average population of 142,000 people.
Ryan Graduski
The average triple red county was just shy of 30,000.
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So Trump gained much more in rural and exorbitant Americans parts of America, while.
Ryan Graduski
Democrats gained primarily in suburbs, not cities, suburbs. It's very important difference. What is interesting about the triple red counties are where they exist, in urban areas, they're all triple red. They're all triple. They all went towards Trump three consecutive elections. No major urban areas went more blue since 2012.
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Not one.
Ryan Graduski
That's a very big thing because in some of the most, some of the largest areas of this country, the counties that have the largest cities.
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Shit.
Ryan Graduski
Okay. What's interesting is that these triple red counties where Trump gained in these urban.
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Areas, they have some of our biggest cities. So Miami Dade county, home of obviously.
Ryan Graduski
Miami, Clark County, Nevada, the home of.
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Las Vegas, Honolulu county, obviously the home of Honolulu, Cuyahoga county, the home of.
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Cleveland, Philadelphia county, which is the home of obviously Philadelphia and several of the.
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Boroughs of New York City, including my own Queens, Brooklyn and the Bronx, all were triple red.
Ryan Graduski
They'd all moved more Republican election over election.
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So what does this tell us?
Ryan Graduski
The rural and exurban counties that moved consecutively, that is the white working class.
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Getting closer and closer towards Saddam Hussein level of support for Donald Trump, Right?
Ryan Graduski
We're approaching the 70, 80 in some parts of West Texas, for example, 90% support for Donald Trump among white working class voters.
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But in the cities primarily now there's.
Ryan Graduski
Some rural areas that are minority around the Mississippi Delta and the Texas border with Mexico, the majority Hispanic or majority black. But for the most part, the where.
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The growth came from, from minorities was in these city centers, these urban areas.
Ryan Graduski
These big urban areas and like New York City that are growing leaps and bounds towards Republicans. The New York Times put this data out and I think listeners should, should hear this part. All told, 135 counties voted more Democrat.
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In 2024 than they did in 2012.
Ryan Graduski
By an average of 8.
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2,678 counties became more Republican by an average of 13.3%. That's six times as many counties that move towards the GOP than move towards the Democratic Party.
Ryan Graduski
And by a substantially wider margin, the.
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Erosion of the working class support among.
Ryan Graduski
Black, white and Latino voters alike has.
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Unnerved every ideological wing of the Democratic Party. This is why, if you listen to.
Ryan Graduski
A lot of lefty podcasts, I know most my audience probably doesn't.
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I do. I have a sick obsession to hear.
Ryan Graduski
What liberals are talking about. There's a lot of conversation outside, like out, besides the bolt work, which is just constant, like Trump is owned this.
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Week, the rest of the conversation around.
Ryan Graduski
Smart liberals is where are we going as a party?
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What are we doing?
Ryan Graduski
This frantic search for an identity and a leader is because this, these numbers are.
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I think that when, now that the.
Ryan Graduski
Election is far out and people can do solid data reporting based upon the voter file, it's far worse than people even imagined. Because it's a trend. It's not a one off. It's not like, oh, 2024 happened, but.
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2020 and 2016 didn't. No, these things are continuing. They're moving in this direction.
Ryan Graduski
And yes, Trump won't be on the ticket in 2028, but it's a sign.
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Of where we are going. Trump not only won major gains in Hispanic areas, as everyone knows, and Decision Desk, this website, Decision Desk, they put.
Ryan Graduski
Out a report that actually Trump won a majority of Hispanics in 16 states. But more counties with a black voter.
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Majority shifted towards Republicans in each of the last 53. Sorry, each of the last three elections.
Ryan Graduski
Then the total number of counties nationwide.
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That trended towards Democrats.
Ryan Graduski
58 counties that are black majority trended towards Republicans. 57 counties that are black majority trended towards Democrats. That is a number that is somebody who's been following politics. In 2008, I probably never would have.
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Believed that that was a substantial thing.
Ryan Graduski
That was going on, but it's happening a lot in rural black counties in this country. And I will tell you guys a story. It seems kind of like doesn't make any sense, but it does. During Stacey Abrams first run for governor.
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In 2018, it was like my first time really in Georgia for any long period of time.
Ryan Graduski
And I passed somebody who rural, you know, Georgian. It was not a big area. I was in South Georgia and he.
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Had a Brian Kempston sign.
Ryan Graduski
And I said to him, why are.
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You voting for Brian Kemp? And he said, no fat lesbian from Atlanta is going to take away my gun.
Ryan Graduski
I now obviously that's really funny and shocking, but I could not believe his identification as a voter, which for so often for black voters in the country.
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Was based on race.
Ryan Graduski
For him, in this very brief conversation.
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I had was based on ideology and specifically gun rights.
Ryan Graduski
A lot of rural blacks in this.
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Country are gun owners and they are culturally much more like a Republican than.
Ryan Graduski
They are like a Democrat.
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Even though a majority still votes for the Democratic Party.
Ryan Graduski
But it's clearly breaking this is in the last election, Republicans gained ground in 193 of the country's 200 most predominantly black counties.
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Think about that. 93 of the 200 most predominantly black counties. This is the base, this is the heartbeat of the Democratic party. They are not a party without majority.
Ryan Graduski
Black support and not even majority. They are not a party, a functioning party, without 85 to 90% majority Black support. If that ever slips to 70%, call it a night they cannot win.
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Or if blacks just don't turn out.
Ryan Graduski
Like they didn't in the last election because they're not energized by a candidate.
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Because they don't perceive them as being.
Ryan Graduski
Authentic for whatever reason. Of the 67 counties in America with a majority Hispanic population, guess how many voted more Republican in 2024 than 2012? 66.
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66 of 67 counties. Even more.
Ryan Graduski
This is according to New York Times.
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Even more arresting is the average swing towards the GOP in those 66 Hispanic.
Ryan Graduski
Majority counties was 23 percentage points. A political earthquake with which both parties are still coming to terms D3 points. With black, with black majority counties it was 2.
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3.
Ryan Graduski
Listen, we'll take it whatever. 3. If that happened, if that kind of.
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Switch happened for working class white voters towards the Democratic Party to the Republican.
Ryan Graduski
Party, it would be a 1964 style.
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Landslide election for the Democrats.
Ryan Graduski
Of the Triple red counties, 95% had a median income below thousand dollars a year.
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They were earning less than $80,000 a year, which is the median income for the whole country.
Ryan Graduski
75% of the triple blue counties had.
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A mean income higher than the national average.
Ryan Graduski
Haitian and wealth are the political dividers of the future.
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It is not so much race, which.
Ryan Graduski
It has been in our country since, I don't know, teen 10, 19, 100 years. A hundred years of race being the deciding factor and how you support somebody will now be replaced by education and income. And it means a world of difference in the country. You'll start seeing places like Kansas and.
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Nebraska get bluer and bluer and bluer.
Ryan Graduski
And you will start seeing places like California and New York and New Jersey get redder and redder. And I don't think people are, are.
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Understand that that movement is happening.
Ryan Graduski
Education is increasingly becoming a more likely.
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Predictor of voting habits than race. It's about a college degree more than your skin tone and your skin color. So the big question I want to present to my audience is this.
Ryan Graduski
What can this continue, especially in a Trump free, in a post Trump world, the Trump Free Republican Party. I mean, obviously they'll all like him, but he won't be on the ticket.
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That's the bigger question in my opinion.
Ryan Graduski
It can, but it's not definite, not.
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In the way the Republican Party is made up in D.C. right now.
Ryan Graduski
I spent a lot of time in the Capitol. I spent a lot of time members of Congress. I've been there for more years than I care to remember.
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And for the most part, they're still naked ideologues. They're holding onto a Republican Party in many senses that they grew up with from decades past.
Ryan Graduski
They are not living in today's world. You know, yes, they support President Trump, they like a lot of agenda. They own a MAGA hat, they put their Make America Great bumper sticker over.
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Their George Bush, mitt Romney, John McCain bumper sticker.
Ryan Graduski
But if you were to wake them up at 3 o' clock in the.
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Morning and waterboard them until they announced.
Ryan Graduski
What they actually believed in, it will.
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Look a lot more like Mitt Romney than Donald Trump. And you maybe they've gotten more aggressive on issues like illegal immigration, but on trade, do you think any of them support tariffs? Really?
Ryan Graduski
What about a millionaires tax like President Trump suggested but didn't get?
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Or an earn a closing of the earned interest loophole which he didn't get. How about paid maternity leave which he's.
Ryan Graduski
Talked about for five years, has never.
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Gotten, never gotten close to it.
Ryan Graduski
What about cutting some spending to the Pentagon which is refusing to meet an.
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Audit and is rippled with misappropriated funds?
Ryan Graduski
How about cutting any money to them.
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Or holding them accountable?
Ryan Graduski
Probably not. What about the Raise act which would have reduced legal immigration by 50%?
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What about any reduction to legal immigration which a majority of Republican voters want?
Ryan Graduski
Maybe you'd get two dozen of the 200 plus members. Maybe two dozen if you're lucky. I'll tell you one story. I was in an off the record congressional event. This is in 2021.
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Biden's in the White House.
Ryan Graduski
Maybe it was in 2022. The Ukraine war had just started.
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Zelensky just come to Congress to go.
Ryan Graduski
And speak to, you know, the Congress.
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Basically asking for endless support for the war in Ukraine.
Ryan Graduski
And I, you know, I understand the.
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Feeling that you should be on the.
Ryan Graduski
Side of the Ukrainian people, especially in.
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This time and you know, wanting to.
Ryan Graduski
Help out a country that was being invaded.
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Totally understand that.
Ryan Graduski
I totally get that. The level at which these congressmen were hungry to support a war was strange to me. They had no idea at which the place Americans were and how war we were weary, we were, how much Americans, especially Republican voters were tired of being the world's policemen, tired of being the world's piggy bank, felt that, that we were being taken advantage of, didn't understand.
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It at all whatsoever. One congressman, I will never forget this, stood up in front of an entire group of other congressmen and said that.
Ryan Graduski
He wanted to put a bust of Zelensky in the capital of Rotunda, our capital, which has nothing to do with Ukraine, next to a statue of Winston Churchill, who was our ally to defeat the Nazis, because he said he's the.
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Most Churchillian figure in the world right now.
Ryan Graduski
Completely and utterly out of touch. There aren't enough people in D.C. that reflect the voters.
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And I'm not talking about like someone's race and how they look or gender or religion or whatnot.
Ryan Graduski
I'm talking about life experience.
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Too many of these people come from.
Ryan Graduski
Money, have never spent a true day as an adult as a member of the working class. They don't have staff who have try to get a staffing job without a college degree.
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I mean, I've met maybe four people.
Ryan Graduski
Ever who was a staffer without, without a college degree. They live in places that are walled off from the working class experience. And the consultant class who advises them nine times out of ten has disdain for the, for the voter. They have total disdain for the Republican voter. They don't understand their feelings on issues at all. And don't even get me started then about the lobbyists and about, you know, the Chamber of Commerce and these other organizations in D.C. who peddle endless immigration and promoting war and non stop tax cuts and just things that can be good at times. But it is their only ideology, it is their only worldview. They are only pushing towards one thing anyway. We have a long way to go.
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As a party, I think, to reflect what the voters want. Which means until we do them, voters will become more extreme in their demands because they feel like they're not being met.
Ryan Graduski
That's my opinion on that. But the data is very interesting and very, very important.
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There's one other data story that came out this week. Very important.
Ryan Graduski
Most people in the media.
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Actually I haven't seen anyone in the.
Ryan Graduski
Media acknowledge it yet, but but it's.
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About who we are as a country.
Ryan Graduski
What we believe and I'm going to cover it so that way you could.
General Ad Voice
Hear about it first.
Ryan Graduski
Stay tuned right for these messages while.
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Ryan Graduski
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Ryan Graduski
The General Social Survey, which has been.
General Ad Voice
Around since 1972, was created by the University of Chicago and the National Opinion Research Center.
Ryan Graduski
The GSS is a big amount of data that comes out every other year.
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So it comes out 2022, 2020, 2024.
Ryan Graduski
The 2024 data just came out and it really looks into who we are as Americans and what we value, what.
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We believe in on a number of things.
Ryan Graduski
Like, I mean, they ask hundreds and hundreds of questions. They spend over a year analyzing and.
General Ad Voice
Pouring over the data. And you have heard about the GSS.
Ryan Graduski
Because when another news story breaks out, they reference it. So when there's the racial reckoning, they'll be like, this is how Americans feel.
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About race relations over time. And they'll use GSS data.
Ryan Graduski
But when it comes out, you know.
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When it comes out, matter of fact.
Ryan Graduski
When it comes out like the day.
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Of, no one reports it. They only reported to tied into other narratives.
Ryan Graduski
So I want to talk about some of the things because it's hundreds of pages long, I can't possibly go through all of it.
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You probably wouldn't be interested in all of it.
Ryan Graduski
But I think that there's a number of things that are vital in it. So let's talk first about social trust.
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We as a nation used to be a very high trusting country. And there are other high trusting countries.
Ryan Graduski
Japan is a high high trust society.
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Scandinavia is a high trust society.
Ryan Graduski
The Scandinavian countries. When you have a high level of social trust, you're not only likely to believe people who are different than you, who look different than you more. You're likely to believe people who look.
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The same as you more. You're more likely to want to volunteer.
Ryan Graduski
Of your own free will and volunteer civically. In World War II, for example, we were a very high trust society. People were okay with giving up things for the betterment of winning the war.
General Ad Voice
And being part of a movement.
Ryan Graduski
That's what happens in a high trust society.
General Ad Voice
We have definitely, obviously, I mean, you shouldn't be shocked. We've lost our steps. They asked which institutions Americans had great confidence in. I'm looking at the data right now.
Ryan Graduski
The only institutions where Americans have are more likely to say they have a high level of confidence than a low, low level of confidence. There's only three medicine, 26% so they.
General Ad Voice
Have a high level of confidence. 20% so they have a low level of confidence.
Ryan Graduski
The scientific community, which they've, they've been hit, they've been Hit a lot post Covid. But 36% said they have a high.
General Ad Voice
Level of social trust.
Ryan Graduski
13% say they have a low level. And the military 42% said they have a high level of social trust. 13% said they have a low level of social trust. That's it.
General Ad Voice
Just three.
Ryan Graduski
These are the institutions that are greatly underwater. Banking, major companies, organized religion, education. I think this is the first time.
General Ad Voice
Ever education has been underwater.
Ryan Graduski
The executive branch, organized labor, Congress, television.
General Ad Voice
I think that means including the media, the Supreme Court.
Ryan Graduski
And the Supreme Court hit 40% primarily because it has to be Democrats.
General Ad Voice
There's no other way. Democrats must have absolutely fled for the hills after the abortion decision.
Ryan Graduski
That's why I'm going to equate that with this report. But those, all those institutions are very much underwater where people have no trust for them, then a lot of trust. When asked, do you think people are genuinely helpful or are mostly looking out for themselves?
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47% of Americans said people are mostly looking out for themselves. 39% said that people are genuinely helpful.
Ryan Graduski
46% said most believe that most people.
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Will take advantage of you. 42% believe people are trying to be fair.
Ryan Graduski
What does that mean on a country level? What does it mean as a country that almost a majority do not have faith and trust in their fellow citizen, in their neighbor?
General Ad Voice
What are they likely to do? What are they not likely to do?
Ryan Graduski
I'll give you an example. When Japan, this is a couple years.
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Ago, Japan was hit with some kind of natural disaster.
Ryan Graduski
They needed everyone in the country to.
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Turn off their lights.
Ryan Graduski
I think after like 6 o' clock.
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To conserve energy and like 94 of people complied.
Ryan Graduski
90, like it was well over 90 people and there was no law. No one in the military was like walking around with a gun saying shut off your lights.
General Ad Voice
They did this voluntarily because they were a high trust society.
Ryan Graduski
Almost half of Americans don't think, think that their neighbor or their fellow American would take advantage of them and that.
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They'Re only looking out for themselves.
Ryan Graduski
Would they be willing to sacrifice when the country needs them, like on their own? Not, not because, you know, there's not. Because there's someone walking around like it.
General Ad Voice
Was the COVID and that you had.
Ryan Graduski
To, you know, right where you've been, what you're doing, like at the airport, but on their own.
General Ad Voice
And most people sit there and say no. Why is that?
Ryan Graduski
Well, there's a number of reasons. Obviously there's been a lot of scandals over the last several decades over why.
General Ad Voice
You can't trust any institutions, why people.
Ryan Graduski
Are flawed politicians who've taken advantage, bankers and wealthy people and businessmen who frauded investors. All of that's true. But there's also another reason, which is immigration. There's been many, many social science studies on this.
General Ad Voice
There's a book called Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam. It's dated now.
Ryan Graduski
It's from the.
General Ad Voice
It's from, I think, 2000, 2001.
Ryan Graduski
But they asked the question of what.
General Ad Voice
Happens when you have mass immigration inflicted on a society. Social trust declines.
Ryan Graduski
It's one of the fastest ways to.
General Ad Voice
Have declining social trust. And I don't think that it should.
Ryan Graduski
Go without saying that that is what.
General Ad Voice
We have seen in this country over.
Ryan Graduski
The last two decades. Primarily when you feel alienated from your fellow American, from your neighbor, you are alienated from the idea of giving towards.
General Ad Voice
That person of your own volition. Other interesting things from the GS survey, I'm going to run down some bullet points almost.
Ryan Graduski
I think they're fascinating.
General Ad Voice
I think you should.
Ryan Graduski
I think it'd be worth hearing it.
General Ad Voice
41% of Americans are currently married. 26% are widowed or divorced, 32% have never been married.
Ryan Graduski
That 32% number is, I think, the highest that has ever been reported. It will likely go higher, which as from a political standpoint, not wonderful when the base of the Democratic Party are.
General Ad Voice
Unmarried women who've never been married.
Ryan Graduski
And also there's a happiness thing.
General Ad Voice
Married people tend to be happier than not married people.
Ryan Graduski
It is the opposite of what you hear from every sitcom of the husband.
General Ad Voice
Who like rolls, the Al Bundy who rolls his eyes or married with children.
Ryan Graduski
The show I grew up watching my grandfather, which was much to the chagrin my mother. But that thing is actually not the true.
General Ad Voice
Most people who are married tend to.
Ryan Graduski
Be happier than people who are not.
General Ad Voice
Married, especially as they get into their 50s and 60s.
Ryan Graduski
10% of Americans are homemakers, which I found shocking because it is. You never hear really about people being.
General Ad Voice
Homemakers before, but 1 in 10 are homemakers.
Ryan Graduski
And also 1 in 10 people work.
General Ad Voice
More than 60 hours a week.
Ryan Graduski
Not really a political take with that, I found that very, very interesting. Americans are as likely to have three children or more as they are likely to have one.
General Ad Voice
The amount the outgrowth of childlessness, which.
Ryan Graduski
I have to touch on for a second because again, to argue to my.
General Ad Voice
Friend Ann Coulter all the time, she doesn't think it's a big deal.
Ryan Graduski
But it is. It is a big deal. One in five conservatives have no kids.
General Ad Voice
Okay, fine. That's about the same as 1984.
Ryan Graduski
The number of, of conservative leaning people who don't have kids has been flat for about 40 years. The number of moderates who don't have.
General Ad Voice
Children went from 13% to 22%. So that's a big uptick in moderates, right.
Ryan Graduski
Who, I don't know if they can't afford it or what the case is, but they, or they just choose not to have kids.
General Ad Voice
But that's a 9% uptick. The number of liberals who don't have.
Ryan Graduski
Children went from 22% in 1984 to 40%. Almost half the population of self proclaimed liberals do not have kids part. Can I. I talked to Tim Pool about this. He's like great. No liberals means, you know, no liberal kids means no liberal future. Yeah, but it means a lot of people who don't have a clear investment.
General Ad Voice
In the future as far as they.
Ryan Graduski
See themselves, they see their, their future.
General Ad Voice
In, in the next generation. It means something.
Ryan Graduski
It just does.
General Ad Voice
Your life does change when you have a kid.
Ryan Graduski
It does mean that a lot of people experience loneliness.
General Ad Voice
Not everyone who doesn't have a kid is lonely, but there are, is a connection between loneliness and no family, no children.
Ryan Graduski
It also means a lot of baby boomers today who, you know, they worked hard and they expected this future where.
General Ad Voice
They would be grandparents are experiencing loneliness.
Ryan Graduski
Now because they don't.
General Ad Voice
They're, they're liberal children and they're liberal for who knows what reason. Never had, never had children.
Ryan Graduski
It's an end of that entire bloodline, that entire family. And it me and I have friends like this who are, you know, they're, they're, I would say they're in middle.
General Ad Voice
World, they're not even liberal, they're kind of left leaning. But they're all in their mid until late 30s, they don't have children and they have smaller families than my own. And I say to them they live so heavily in the moment.
Ryan Graduski
I have this conversational constantly. They live completely in the moment. And I say to them, you're not.
General Ad Voice
Looking 20 years down the line when your parents aren't here anymore or 25.
Ryan Graduski
Years, knock on wood, as long as humanly possible. When you don't, when a holiday is literally being alone, like that's a very hard thing for a lot of people. And we see depression and we see suicides and we see addiction spike during those time periods that loneliness is getting higher.
General Ad Voice
And it's specifically among a lot of college educated women who are being pressured.
Ryan Graduski
To one think that they have to work to show that they are worthy, that their work is what they kind of define themselves in, and also because.
General Ad Voice
They'Re in school until their mid-30s and.
Ryan Graduski
By the time that the opportunity to have children comes up, time has kind.
General Ad Voice
Of passed them by and no one warned them. There's also a connection between mental health problems in this study and.
Ryan Graduski
And political stuff. Voters under 30, people who are extremely liberal, 56% said that they were diagnosed.
General Ad Voice
With a mental health problem.
Ryan Graduski
Think about that. People who are very liberal under the age of 30, a majority said they.
General Ad Voice
Were diagnosed with a mental health problem, according to the GSS study.
Ryan Graduski
If is that. There's two questions. Is it that liberalism attracts mentally ill people when there are times that I could get on board with that message, or is it that very liberal people are trying to diagnose themselves with problems they're over, trying to find a reason they their life isn't well, or that they're not perfect or whatever the case may be, I'm not sure. But there is a sliding scale. 56% of extreme liberals under the age.
General Ad Voice
Of 30 have a mental health problem.
Ryan Graduski
37% of people who are just regularly liberal have a mental health problem. 30% of moderates have say they have a diagnosed mental health problem.
General Ad Voice
Only 15% of conservatives and only 10%.
Ryan Graduski
Of very conservative people. And this, by the way, this sliding scale of people under 30 is not true. People over 30, over 30, extreme conservatives, conservatives, moderates all have the same amount. 16 to 17% liberals, 24, extreme liberals, 28.
General Ad Voice
Okay, slight uptick with extreme liberals and liberals, but not significance.
Ryan Graduski
You know, 10 points at the most, but it's usually like six. Not a lot. Not a big growth among young people.
General Ad Voice
And I would guess specifically young women who are liberal.
Ryan Graduski
It is a social contagion. It's wild in my opinion, and it's not good. It's not a healthy place to be. And it will probably mean of a Democratic party in the future that reflects those kinds of voters where you're like.
General Ad Voice
Wow, everyone seems like they've diagnosed with.
Ryan Graduski
A mental health issue anyway. Okay, I want to go to like two more things and then we'll get to the Q A because this study is really long. I could go through everything other interesting thing that I found.
General Ad Voice
Another tidbit was this. When it comes to idea of free.
Ryan Graduski
Speech now this is something that we as Americans hold as the greatest ideal. It's something we can generally get aboard.
General Ad Voice
Get on board despite our politics, right? The belief of free speech, that's what we are told.
Ryan Graduski
There is a big difference between free speech depending on what you are criticizing. So they ask people, if someone spoke out against all religion, should they be allowed to speak?
General Ad Voice
79% said yes, 21% said no.
Ryan Graduski
If someone was an admitted and avowed communist, should they be allowed to speak?
General Ad Voice
66% said yes, 34% said no. If someone said that they believe one race was inferior to another, should they.
Ryan Graduski
Be allowed to speak?
General Ad Voice
49% said yes, 51% said no.
Ryan Graduski
That is.
General Ad Voice
Dramatic.
Ryan Graduski
Now I do not believe any race.
General Ad Voice
Is specifically inferior than than another race. And I wouldn't get on board with that meth message.
Ryan Graduski
But I do believe that that person.
General Ad Voice
Has the right to speak.
Ryan Graduski
And sometimes it's good that they speak. So that way everything is aired out, right? You can, you can tell who the real racist is.
General Ad Voice
Like, I think a communist should be allowed to speak.
Ryan Graduski
That is jarring though, that we have. This is something that Christopher Caldwell wrote.
General Ad Voice
About in his brilliant book.
Ryan Graduski
That we.
General Ad Voice
Had a second constitution during the civil rights era.
Ryan Graduski
That there is a belief that conversations.
General Ad Voice
And discussions over race really triumph overall.
Ryan Graduski
And that is something that's very nerve wracking. I mean, thank God we have a Supreme Court.
General Ad Voice
That's always, usually, I'm thinking, almost always.
Ryan Graduski
Held up the right to speak. But that's nerve wracking that the public does feel like some conversations deserve you.
General Ad Voice
To take your rights away.
Ryan Graduski
That would support things like hate speech.
General Ad Voice
Laws, which is, which is against our first Amendment.
Ryan Graduski
They also asked if somebody had an opinion that if someone spoke out against.
General Ad Voice
All religions, should they be allowed to teach? 63% said yes for teaching.
Ryan Graduski
But if they had the same opinion over race, only 49% said they should.
General Ad Voice
Be allowed to hold a teaching job. Once again, you shouldn't be allowed to.
Ryan Graduski
Speak, shouldn't be allowed to work if you hold unpolite positions. Now it's 50, 50.
General Ad Voice
I'm sure it's actually better. I wasn't able to find the data from 2020.
Ryan Graduski
I don't know they asked this question. I'm sure it's better than during the racial reckoning, but it says a lot.
General Ad Voice
That our rights are conditional to what we say to a lot of people.
Ryan Graduski
Okay. Last few things that I think are super fascinating.
General Ad Voice
One in four people living in the country have at least one immigrant parent and only 64% had all have all four grandparents born in the U.S. i'm.
Ryan Graduski
One of the 64%.
General Ad Voice
I thought it'd be higher, honestly, but I guess mass immigration will do that to you. 36% of people who did not vote.
Ryan Graduski
In the 2016 election because they were either too young or they didn't vote. 36% of those people would have voted for Trump. 29% for Clinton. That shows you the projection of where new voters are. Are still leaning to the right. That's good. The next question and I'll go over. 35% of people say that they attend.
General Ad Voice
Church once a month or more. 33% attends a few times a year. 31 never attend church. 83% of Americans believe in life after death. 17% do not. I'm in the 83% camp.
Ryan Graduski
68% pray at least once a week.
General Ad Voice
20% never do. 54% of Americans support prayer in school.
Ryan Graduski
Despite what the media will tell you, majority of Americans support prayer in school.
General Ad Voice
46% do not.
Ryan Graduski
20% of Americans believe you should have.
General Ad Voice
The right to discriminate when selling a home.
Ryan Graduski
You should be able to sell your home to whomever you want to, depending.
General Ad Voice
On, you know, your own biases. Majority of Americans obviously do not. About a quarter of Americans support affirmative.
Ryan Graduski
Action when it comes to hiring minorities. 73% oppose, which also not a thing.
General Ad Voice
That the media would ever sit there and track. I'm sure if I said on CNN I'd be banned all over.
Ryan Graduski
And then I'll go over the last thing. 36% of Americans own a firearm.
General Ad Voice
31% believe it is better for a man to be the breadwinner in a household and the woman to be a homemaker.
Ryan Graduski
Interesting stuff, interesting data. I thought you guys would like it. I, I enjoy that kind of stuff. Once again, it's hundreds of pages long. You could download it for free. The General Social Survey. I highly recommend it. It's just fascinating.
General Ad Voice
Let's get to.
Ryan Graduski
Let's, let's land this plane. Let's get to the question answer. If you have a question for me.
General Ad Voice
You can email me ryan@number game podcast.com Ryan@plural numbers game podcast.com youm're listening to.
Ryan Graduski
It'S the Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll be right back after this message.
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Ryan Graduski
Thank you for calling Amica Insurance.
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Ryan Graduski
Don't worry, we'll get you taken care of.
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This email comes from Russell Clog. Russell says hello.
Ryan Graduski
Ryan burned through all your episodes on a recent new show. Congrats. Interest in your work sparked from an older conversation you had with Emily Jasinski.
General Ad Voice
Last year on Breaking Points.
Ryan Graduski
Yeah, I know I was on that show. I haven't had me on a long time now where you responded humorously that to a Karen led online Democratic fundraiser for Harris or something wanting someone to.
General Ad Voice
Say, ma' am, this is a Wendy's to the lead Karen. Oh yeah, that was true.
Ryan Graduski
This is when they were like, it's.
General Ad Voice
A bunch of like white women for Harris.
Ryan Graduski
And they were like giving context of.
General Ad Voice
What you should say and when and not to hurt anyone's feelings and oh my God how exhausting.
Ryan Graduski
Two questions.
General Ad Voice
And if you had numbers on them, do Democrats have a smug elitist problem?
Ryan Graduski
Are they perceived by the average person.
General Ad Voice
Or majority of the population as arrogant or out of touch? If so, does this perception change based on respondents being.
Amica Insurance Ad
Being.
General Ad Voice
Being in out group? Democrat Republicans, do Republicans and independents know how Democrats think, see the world versus Democrats cannot understand how Republicans and independents see the world.
Ryan Graduski
Okay, so let me answer the second question first. There is a general misperception on many things when it comes to both the opposite party, when it comes to what people think Republicans believe versus what people think Democrats believe.
General Ad Voice
Right.
Ryan Graduski
There is a belief also that the country as a whole is different than what it is.
General Ad Voice
Right.
Ryan Graduski
This is not just.
General Ad Voice
This is just based on your personal bias.
Ryan Graduski
So there was, there was this one study and I can't remember, but I.
General Ad Voice
Do have the data. So they asked Americans, how many people do you think in this country are live in New York City?
Ryan Graduski
30% said they said.
General Ad Voice
30% said they lived in New York City. It's 3%.
Ryan Graduski
They asked how many people you think are transgender?
General Ad Voice
They said 21%. It was 1%.
Ryan Graduski
How many people have a household income.
General Ad Voice
Of over a million? They thought it was 20%. It's less than 1%.
Ryan Graduski
They asked how many people you think are gay.
General Ad Voice
They said 30%. It's like 3% are openly gay. There's another 6% who are bisexual.
Ryan Graduski
Whatever. The numbers were wildly off. And that is as true for Republicans.
General Ad Voice
As it is for Democrats.
Ryan Graduski
There's been a number of studies and about how misperception within the parties exists.
General Ad Voice
But it's not just within the parties.
Ryan Graduski
It's within the greater context of the.
General Ad Voice
Of the, of the country.
Ryan Graduski
Like they. The average person is not always finally.
General Ad Voice
In tune with the actual percentages of the country and how and what they actually believe. Do they have a smug or elitist problem?
Ryan Graduski
It depends who. Right. It depends who in the party. Bernie Sanders does not have a smug or elitist problem. Bernie Sanders can go on a comedy podcast and talk about the history of.
General Ad Voice
The Dodgers and have a normal conversation.
Ryan Graduski
Kamala Harris had a smug or elitist problem. I would say AOC could have a. No, I don't think it's. I wouldn't say it's a smug release.
General Ad Voice
She has a different problem, but it's.
Ryan Graduski
Not a smuggler elitist problem. She definitely comes off more. More regular. Pete Buttigiegs does not have a smug or elitist problem. He has a different problem when it.
General Ad Voice
Comes to winning a national election in.
Ryan Graduski
The sense that black voters in the Democratic Party. I don't believe we're going to elect a gay guy.
General Ad Voice
Gavin Newsom has a smug and elitist problem.
Ryan Graduski
So I, I don't think as a party as a whole they can answer that question. When it comes to certain candidates. Yes, but it's not every candidate in.
General Ad Voice
The Democratic Party and you could see.
Ryan Graduski
The ones who don't have it, the ones who come off more, you know, regular, regular Joe, they, they are the.
General Ad Voice
Leading contenders for the Democratic nomination. I think when you come, I think.
Ryan Graduski
When I think the better question is.
General Ad Voice
Not really the elected officials as much.
Ryan Graduski
As it is representatives of the Democratic Party.
General Ad Voice
George Clooney, obviously elitist problem.
Ryan Graduski
Steven Spielberg, obviously a Taylor Swift, Oprah Winfrey. These are all celebrities or they're left wing influencers who either look like they.
General Ad Voice
Are, they have a missing chromosome or an extra one. There's something like wrong with these people.
Ryan Graduski
They are very, very, very far to the left.
General Ad Voice
So I think that when you look.
Ryan Graduski
At the representation of who, who is out there talking with the Democratic Party so often, yes, the act, elected officials.
General Ad Voice
Who have to get votes.
Ryan Graduski
It's a mixed bag. Anyway, I hope that answers your question.
General Ad Voice
If I find any more information on.
Ryan Graduski
This, I'm actually going to bring this.
General Ad Voice
Up next week on the podcast to talk about this. I think it's an interest.
Ryan Graduski
But I will look for that for on Monday. So tune in, please like and subscribe to this podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts. Wherever you get your podcast, I will see you on Monday with a special guest. Talk to you then.
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Episode Summary: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind The Shifting Political Landscape
Podcast Information
1. Introduction
The episode "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind The Shifting Political Landscape" delves deep into recent political trends and societal changes through the lens of data and statistics. Hosted by Ryan Graduski, the discussion centers on the shifting political dynamics across various counties in the United States, insights from the General Social Survey (GSS), and broader societal implications.
2. Overview of County Shifts in Recent Elections
Ryan opens the conversation by referencing a critical map released by The New York Times, which tracks the political shifts in every county over the last three presidential elections since Donald Trump became the Republican nominee.
Key Findings:
Demographic Insights:
Urban Areas Trends:
3. Demographic Changes and Political Alignment
Ryan discusses the significant demographic shifts contributing to the political realignment:
Rural and Exurban Growth:
Minority Representation:
4. The General Social Survey Insights
Ryan pivoted to discuss the latest data from the General Social Survey (GSS), an extensive sociological survey used to collect data on demographic characteristics and attitudes of residents in the United States.
Social Trust:
General Social Perceptions:
5. Social Trust and Its Decline
The decline in social trust is explored, highlighting its impact on societal cohesion and collective action.
Comparison to High Trust Societies:
Impact of Scandals and Institutions:
6. Marriage and Family Statistics
The GSS also sheds light on changing family structures and their societal implications.
Marriage Rates:
Household Dynamics:
Childbearing Trends:
Implications:
7. Mental Health and Political Affiliation
Ryan delves into the correlation between mental health diagnoses and political leanings.
Statistics:
Analysis:
8. Free Speech Perceptions
The episode explores Americans' views on free speech, particularly concerning controversial topics.
Survey Questions and Responses:
Implications:
9. Immigration and Social Trust
Ryan discusses the impact of immigration on social trust within American communities.
GSS Findings:
Social Science Insights:
10. Audience Questions and Responses
Listeners submitted questions regarding perceptions of elitism within the Democratic Party and whether Democrats are seen as smug or out of touch.
Misconceptions Across the Board:
Individual Perspectives:
Celebrity Influence:
Future Implications:
11. Conclusion
The episode concludes with a reflection on the profound changes within America's political and social landscape. The data presented underscores a nation undergoing significant realignment, driven by demographic shifts, declining social trust, and evolving societal values. Ryan emphasizes the importance of understanding these numbers to navigate and address the challenges ahead.
Notable Quotes:
Final Thoughts: This episode of "The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show" provides a data-driven exploration of the shifting political landscape in the United States. By leveraging comprehensive surveys and electoral data, Ryan Graduski offers insightful analysis into the factors reshaping American politics and society.