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Tara Davis Woodhull
Guaranteed Human hey, this is US Olympic gold medalist Tara Davis Woodhull and I'm.
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US Paralympic gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.
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As athletes, our lives are about having.
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So when it came to getting the.
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Best mortgage, we chose PennyMac.
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PennyMac is proud to be the official mortgage provider of Team USA and you.
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Ryan Graduski
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you guys for being here. You know, January was my most listened to month of this podcast in our one year history. So I want to thank you all for who subscribe, who like this show, who watch and listen to it every single episode. It means beyond what you can imagine. I am, I am very grateful for those who interested in data and my messiness and everything else. I want to start by addressing a special election that I didn't think I'd have to talk to or talk about. I wasn't prepared to sit there and bring this up, but it's made a lot of news and there's a lot of misinformation going on both on social media and in the mainstream media. So let's talk about the special election that happened for the Texas State Senate last week. There was a special election in Texas's 9th state Senate district. This is the Fort Worth area. It's a district that Trump won in 2024 by 17 points. There was a special election and the Democrat candidate won by 14 points. There was a tremendous 31 point swing. And the media has gone on a whirlwind tour. They are talking about this as if it is the indicator, among all indicators that Republicans are doomed. Rosta Fat of the New York Times put out a whole podcast that Trump was losing swing voters and young people and Latinos, his coalition that delivered him the presidency. Veteran Republican strategist Alex Castanedos Castanos, I think is pronounced his last name. He said the Republicans lose, could lose as many as 40 seats in the upcoming midterm elections and, and basically said the House is just doomed. And conservative writer and political commentator Henry Olson said that they were on a path to a 2018 style blowout. Shellacking this is going to make people's, this is all going to make my head explode. And the information that they're offering is nuggets. It's, it's, it's grains of sand. It is not accurate when you look at the entire picture. So first, let's go into a deep dive in the Texas special election because I, let's talk about the address of why this district swung so heavily for Democrats. First, Republicans are coming out, you know, with this, that, that it was, this is the Republican lie that Republicans are saying it was just poor turnout and poor turnout cost in the special election. It was held on a Saturday, which is something that Texas does fairly often as they hold elections on Saturdays. I don't know why I have never seen it show that. It shows immensely High turnout. I think it's very confusing for most people who are used to elections on a Tuesday to show up on a weekend. I don't think that it encourages people to show up because they have the day off. Most of them from work. A lot of work class people do work on the weekend. So I don't know why they do this, but it was an election held on a Saturday. But Republicans did show up. It wasn't just that only Democrats showed up. Republicans showed up, but a lot showed up and then voted for the Democrat. According to researcher Ross Hunt, 50% of people who showed up in this election had a history of voting for Republicans in primaries. That is enough to get a Republican over the finish line if they hold those voters together. 95,000 people voted in this special election, which is down from regular election, about 120,000, but it's not down that significantly. First of all, let's talk about the race. First of all, the Republican in the election, there was a primary, and there was a very contested primary. One of the candidates who was running in that primary, the former mayor of South Lake, John Huffman, received about 20% of the vote in the primary. He did not endorse the Republican nominee in the general of that special election, signaling to his supporters it's either okay to sit out this election or to vote for the Democrats. So that was the first thing that Republicans had going against them was that one of the primary candidates told one fifth of the primary voting base, you know, I'm not going to support this nominee from the Republican Party. Secondly, the Republican nominee, whose name is Lee. Womancing it's an almost unpronounceable last name. Sources of mine who were in the district, in the campaign told me that campaign staffers could not pronounce or spell her name on election night. That is how difficult her last name was, which I get it, it's your last name. It's difficult. I, as a consultant, have had candidates who have been running, and I say I had one candidate one time. His first name was Stomatis, which is Greek. And I said, call yourself Steve. Make it easy for people to know who you are, right? Make it easier. Don't have an unpronounceable last name. That does play into things, right? So Lee is what I'll call her instead of trying to pronounce her last name, which, you guys know, I'm not wonderful at pronouncing last names to begin with. Lee was also a very controversial candidate. She was part of a group called Patriot Mobile for those of you who don't know. Patriot Mobile is a conservative organization and they have a pack associated with them that deal with school board elections. My pack and theirs have endorsed many of the same candidates over the last five years. I've worked with their people before in that capacity. They're perfectly fine. I personally think they spend too much money on these school board races, but that's my own take anyway. They're very successful. Well, Lee was part is pivotal role in Patriot Mobile. And there was an issue that when the conservatives won the Keller Independent School District, Keller isd, one of the wealthier school districts, public school districts in northern Dallas area near Fort Worth, that they tried to split the school district into two. Basically they wanted the wealthy area to become their own ISD and the working class area to become their own isd. Split Keller in half. This caused a lot of sour grapes in the community. Right. A lot of working class people felt like they were going to lose out on tax revenue and on dollars and that this would hurt their school district and their kids. And it's a very personal thing. Public education. I know conservatives. I don't have a lot of conversations about public education. I promise you, when it comes to just average voters, they have tons of conversations. And it was deeply offensive to them. And Lee, the Republican nominee, became the face of it to a certain degree. And. And it was deeply unpopular, even among rank and file Republicans, Latinos, independents, that they were trying to split this district up that was going into this election, and it pissed off a ton of people. And according to my contacts in Texas, there was also a deep frustration that the party did not pick the state representative to be their nominee. State representative Nate Schlitzline. Schatzline, he was a state representative who represents the area and had just won reelection by 21 points. He's handsome, he's young. So why didn't they pick the very handsome, very young, very telegenic, populist conservative candidate over this woman named Lee who has this connections to Patriot Mobile? Well, the answer I was receiving from people was money. Allegedly they believe that she was buying the nomination. And it caused. These were all things leading into this election, just one thing after the other after the other, leading to kind of a deep dislike among rank and file Republicans who felt that she was just trying to buy the seat. And they were ignoring what conservatives were feeling both on local issues and also that they really like the state representative. And it was kind of crazy. Why didn't you pick the state representative who just won by 20 points in the Same area. Why did you pick this lady with this controversial connection to the schools, with this unpronounceable last name? And to Democrats credit, on top of it, they picked a normal white guy. They recruited a normal white guy to be their nominee. A union worker who had, I don't know if he's partially working class, but had workingclass connections. Some you would want to get a beer with. They didn't nominate an aoc. They didn't nominate a Jasmine Crockett. They nominated someone that Republicans were okay and independents were okay voting for. That's how this district was lost and how it swung so heavily. When a district swings within the normal margins, usually in special elections, like 10 points, 20 points, those are big swings, but those are expected given that it's a special election and national feelings towards the president, a 31 point swing is a much bigger deal. And it has to do with something going on in the district with the candidates, with the nominee. And especially when you, when you calculate the Republicans outspent Democrats by a wide margin in the district, it wasn't so much the conditions nationwide as it was the person. What does this mean for Republicans nationwide? Because this is what the media is getting to saying. This is the evidence that we're going to see a Republican loss. This is the evidence that 40 seats are going to go Democrat and that the Trump coalition is over. A narrative I have heard so many times in the last decade. Let's take a step back and let's look at all the special elections, not just from this year, but also from last year, and compare them to the first Trump midterm in 2018 and those special elections in 2017 and 2018. So in 2025, Democrats outperformed Trump in their respective difference by an average of 12 points. Right. Democrats about 12 points better on average in all the special elections than Trump had done in 2024. In 2020, that was 2025. Right. So 2025, 12 points more Democrat. That's actually worse for Republicans than 2017 was leading up to his first midterm. In those elections, in those specials, Democrats outran Trump by 8 points. So it's a 4 point to the left of 2018. That's not good. But the difference was from 2017 to 2018 special elections, if they show any nuggets, if they show any signs of how the nation is trending, became bluer. 2018 special elections leading up to the midterm were 9 points more Democratic than the 2016 election. So went from 8 to 9 in 2017. And 2018, the average was 8.7 in a midterm, that turned out to be an 8.4 year. That's a very key telling sign. Anger against Trump was increasing as time went on. Now, let's go back to 2025. Last year it was a D plus 12 year, was a 12 point more to the left than the 2024 election was. What has 2026, although it's only been a month of 24, five weeks of 2026, what has 2026 shown us? So far, it has been 7.5% more to the left than 2024. So five point. It was about a four and a half point swing to the right from the previous year. That is not what happened in 2017 or 2018. These special elections actually performed better for Republicans than last year did. Republicans in places like New York, Alabama and Georgia have actually outperformed Trump in a number of special elections. The average right now, if you combine both years together, like I said, both years for 2017, 2018, was 8.7 pro Democrat. Right now it's D 11. That's very good for Democrats. I don't want to sugarcoat it, that's very good for Democrats. But the election signs, if you're going to point a special election and say, here is the tea leaves, here is the evidence of how the election is going has gotten redder over the last six weeks. They haven't gotten bluer. And that's very important context. This was not the election that should have woke Republicans up, that the electorate was turning against them. The special election that should have woken Republicans up and we should be having a national conversation up was last year. There was a special in the Pennsylvania State Senate in Lancaster County, a Republican county, a Republican stronghold county that moved about 15 points to the left. That's when a Democrat won a seat that was pretty safely Republican in a special election. They only won by one point, but still, it was a safe seat. It was a safe election. And that was more of a telltale sign of the national environment than this 30 point swing with this candidate who had all these issues with local voters. I mean, I've called a lot of people in Texas to ask them. And this candidate had a lot of things working against her versus the candidate in Lancaster wasn't a great candidate, but a lot of it was the national environment. And it should also serve as a wake up call to Republicans who are raising massive amounts of money. I told you in the last episode, 300 million for the Trump PAC, 200 million for crypto 100 million in AI, 100 million in APAC. That money does not always buy you election victories. Right? Money matters in politics. Your first dollar matters a lot. Your 100 millionth dollar doesn't matter that much. If money bought elections, we would have presidents Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton and Michael Bloomberg. It's just not the case. Right. National environments mean something. You know, policies mean something. Excitement mean something. I need to address one last thing to really break up what the media has been saying. They put up this notion that Republicans are going to lose 40 seats or more, which is around the 2018 election landslide the Democrats had. That is not true. Right. If Republicans lose 40 seats, a man on my word, I will eat crow on this podcast in live stream on an episode that would take the Republican total down to 180 seats. Now, according to every prediction market and nonpartisan analysts and even analysts who say they're nonpartisan, but they're really partisan, I. E. Larry KUDLOW Just saying, saying, not saying. They say that the, that Republicans are either in safe or very likely Republican districts in between 200 to 203 seats. That's what they're saying is the floor. That's without the Florida BA Florida redistricting effort that's coming in this month. That's without the Supreme Court cases in Alabama and Louisiana that could net Republicans two to four more seats. Looking at section two, if, if Thomas writes the decision or Alita writes a decision, it could net Republicans 20 seats. And it's a completely different ball game. So if you want to have a completely unbiased opinion, just looking at the raw numbers, things do not look good for Republicans. The midterms, it's almost certainly going to be a Democrat majority. Hakeem Jeffries is most certainly likely to be the first. Well, if he can, if they don't, if they vote for him. But right now, Hakeem Jeffries is likely to be the next speaker of the House, the first black speaker of the House. But elections in this year's special, the ones that they're saying you need to pay attention to, are actually far better than last year's, better than 2018. Right. Republicans are not going to lose 40 seats in the House. It is extremely, extremely improbable. And that's mostly because of just the way the districts are now. There are fewer districts that are not safe even in the Democratic wave. In Virginia, where the State of Delegates Republicans got shellacked in a real way. They didn't lose any Trump +10 seats. They didn't lose any Trump+9 seats. This was not like they into the deepest Republican districts. Democrats are fighting hard this year. They're competing in areas that are very tough. However, all signs are not pointing to what analysts right now are saying. There's a lot of hyperbole, there's a lot of hype and the data is showing that things have actually trended a little bit more Republican these specials from last year. But Republicans are in trouble. That's the data. Okay, Coming up next is Ask Me Anything.
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Tara Davis Woodhull
This is US Olympic gold medalist Tara.
Hunter Woodhull
Davis Woodhull and I'm US Paralympic gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.
Tara Davis Woodhull
As athletes, our lives are about having.
Hunter Woodhull
A clear path and a team that you can absolutely trust.
Tara Davis Woodhull
So when it came to getting the.
Hunter Woodhull
Best mortgage, we chose PennyMac.
Tara Davis Woodhull
PennyMac is proud to be the official mortgage provider of Team USA and you.
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Tara Davis Woodhull
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Narrator/Announcer
Youm'Ve never been one to settle, stand down or stand still. You're a lifelong learner, energized by excellence. There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. You've got competition to outrun, momentum to build on, and your own high standards to meet. Stop now. Not a chance. At Capella University, we help you catch what you're chasing because you've always had the drive. Now go earn the degree. Capella University. What can't you do? Visit Capella. Edu to learn. Learn more.
Ryan Graduski
Thank you for being part of the Ask Me Anything segment, guys. This is the best part of the show. I love getting these emails. Email me ryan numbers game podcast.com that's right at numbers plural numbers game podcast.com I will get to all your questions. I'm doing a longer episode today because I'm a little backlogged on them, but please keep sending me your emails. Ask me anything Politics, non politics and I will get to it for this show. Or if it's just a private conversation, I'll just email you guys back. First one up is Michael Woods. He says, I have a question regarding the 14th Amendment, that it guarantees due process and equal protection. Since these standards apply to all people and buying states, how can cities like Minneapolis deny law enforcement protection to federal authorities? While I understand the states do not enforce federal immigration law, police still have a duty to protect all individuals equally, including federal employees. How can police choose not to respond to a mob in situations that are, far from, quote, peaceful protests? It appears that the city is applying different standards based on political affiliation, refusing to protect those who do not align with the progressive policies. Why hasn't there been a civil liberties lawsuit against the city? This is a great question, Michael. I actually had to call a lawyer. One of my constitutional lawyer friends is I didn't know the answer. So according to my friend who's a constitutional lawyer, he said the premise of the question is incorrect. They you believe that the 14th Amendment deals with powers of local police officers and it doesn't. It's a faulty understanding of the Constitution. Police officers don't have an affirmative duty to respond equally to every situation. It doesn't guide them on how they should respond to every circumstance. The 14th Amendment talks about limits of government power and not necessarily the duty of local law enforcement and how to handle the power. Look at Section one. It's an operative limit on the state and not discriminatory powers. Anyway, that's what he said. I'm not a lawyer. I don't even play one on television or on podcasts. But that is the answer I can get. Best for you, Michael. I hope that answered your question about why the 14th amendment doesn't guarantee police protection for ICE agents. Great question though. I really really liked it. I actually learned something. Next question comes from Derek. He writes I have been reading some interesting thoughts on how China's population may be overstated by 500 million. The reasoning is for their population is to be where it is is the total fertility rate from the 1950s to 2000 would needed to be 3.3 children per woman in order to achieve that growth. Is the idea that China's population is massively overstated well grounded or am I misreading the data? Okay, I did research on this. I'd heard things but I did never did a deep dive. Every country is individually responsible for their population counting and their birth data. Some countries are very good at it. Other countries misrepresent their information right. China is one of the worst. India is also very very bad at actually reporting data and being involved in international statistics. China is also very very bad. As far as 500 million goes that is very high. That would be like a 30% mark up on the population. A man named Yi Funjin I'm sorry I mispronounced the name Yi Fujin I think is how you pronounce it. An obstetrician at the University of Wisconsin Madison who conducts demography research said this to Newsweek. He said he said China's statistics bureau earlier reports that there there have been 203 million birth 1991 and 2079 million deaths giving the population a 1.27 billion dollar. Sorry, 1.27 billion person estimate at the turn of the century the 2000 census came up short though so officially so officials launched a campaign to add tens of millions of quote missing people bringing the total population close to the initial estimate, he said. But a closer look at demographics show a glaring disparity. Around 164 million people were born between 1991 and 2000. And after accounting for these births attracting deaths and net migration there were about 40 million fewer Chinese than reported. Some countries like I said are very good at reporting it. He says that there estimates about 100 million more Chinese counted. I I can see that believable 100 million is still a vast over reporting of 8 to 10% depending on the estimates you're looking at. 500 million is wildly high, like you're talking 35% or greater. So I find 500 million to be inaccurate, but 100 million is probably really where it is. So yeah, China has probably overestimated their numbers, but it's looking closer and closer to 100 million. I'll be back with more. Ask Me Anything after this.
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Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc, SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures hey.
Tara Davis Woodhull
This is US Olympic gold medalist Tara.
Hunter Woodhull
Davis Woodhull and I'm US Paralympic gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.
Tara Davis Woodhull
As athletes, our lives are about having.
Hunter Woodhull
A clear path and a team that you can absolutely trust.
Tara Davis Woodhull
So when it came to getting the.
Hunter Woodhull
Best mortgage, we chose PennyMac.
Tara Davis Woodhull
PennyMac is proud to be the official mortgage provider of Team USA and you.
PennyMac Advertiser
Learn more at pennymac.com pennymac loan services llc/housing lender nmls id 35953 licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act. Conditions and restrictions may apply.
Cindy Crawford
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Ryan Graduski
Okay, we're back with Ask Me Anything. My buddy Peter fomo. Peter fomo. Peter, I love that you email me as often as you do. You definitely add a lot to the show. Peter asked an episode a question three episodes ago about ICE deportations and he said that I misunderstood the question. The question I thought he was saying was should ICE agents not involved in blue states at all? He said, I think you're misunderstanding my question. What I meant is if Trump focused on red states rather than blue states like Minnesota, as a result illegals would flee to those blue states and sanctuary areas where eventually Trump would have to confront blue state protesters and uncooperative governors and mayors. I asked this because some of some have said Trump should ignore blue states initially and focus where he can get cooperation. I think that's a misunderstanding of of where their their comments are. A misunderstanding of where sanctuary their jurisdictions happen. There are a number of sanctuary cities in red states. New Orleans, Atlanta, Omaha, all sanctuary cities or counties. Trump cannot only work with red states and ignore sanctuary cities because so many sanctuary cities exist in red states. Right? You can't ignore Atlanta. You can't ignore Omaha. If you're looking at Nebraska, these are big places, not every place like Florida, which has banned sanctuary cities. So you can't only go where you're getting local Cooperation, because you're ignoring too many big population centers. What should Trump be doing? Is what Tom Holman has been saying. Tom Holman has been sidelined for a while by Kristi Noem. That was always wrong. Holman has been saying these raids should be taking place at night. So there's not that many protesters. Figure out where the people are primarily either with an existing deportation order, which there are tons of people, millions, with a preexisting deportation order and criminal allegations, convictions, or upcoming sentencing, and look to process them first. Now, if you're, if you go to a house, an illegal alien who's committed a crime, a major crime especially, and their spouse is illegal and their children are illegal or they're living with illegals, you arrest everybody. You don't just arrest the one person, you arrest everybody. But do those raids tactfully at night, away from a million cameras, away from a million different iPhones. Right. And make it, make the images less jarring to American citizens who polls show overwhelmingly support deporting illegal immigrants. This would stop a lot of the backlash we're seeing publicly against ice. Right. These videos are very, very damaging. People's emotions are all getting tied up to also would continue to spur the level of self deportations. Mitt Romney, sorry, was the first one, I don't know who ran for president talking about self deportations, and he was correct. Self deportations is a key part of how you achieve mass deportations. People just leaving on their own. Now, the administration estimates that 2 million people have self deported in the first year of the Trump presidency. That seems to be a little high. I've looked at some independent authorities on this, and they estimate the number to be closer to 200,000. I might do an episode on why there's a discrepancy between what the administration is putting out, what these people are putting out. But let's say it's close to the 200,000 estimate, which seems pretty close to accurate. Maybe it could be higher, but it's about 200,000. If you add the 200,000 to the number that Trump deported in the first term, the first year of his, of his administration of a second term, it's basically doubling it. You go from 250,000, which is what the New York Times cite is Trump deportations, to 450,000. Right. So 200 plus about 230, plus 250,000 deportations, plus 200,000 self deportations. That's almost half a million. You're actually getting to really substantially high numbers when it comes to that. And Also, you're deterring millions more from making the journey. So when you include all that information, it may be a drop in the bucket to the overall number or what expectations are, but you're getting towards the path of mass deportations what you want. And you can't avoid blue states. You just have to do it more tactfully, right? Looking at people with convictions, with prior deportation, you know, deportation warnings, people you know, who ICE knows about, that's how you avoid the bad PR and that's how you still achieve mass deportation. People know deportations are happening, illegals are self deporting. You're still getting the people you're avoiding. The video cameras, you're avoiding, you know, the, the shootings with good and pretty, you are getting, but you're getting the results. So don't avoid blue states. There are millions there. And also, but one other thing, you don't want to do that because if you ignore the blue states, here's what happens. If you only go to red states, illegals will start moving to the blue states to avoid deportations. How does that affect the future? We've talked a number of times on this podcast about people moving away from blue states and them not being counted in the census. Well, if you have a million people moving to California, New York, guess what they're going to get House representative seats and electoral college votes based on those illegal aliens. So no, you can't ignore the blue states. Whoever is saying that out loud, just stop listening to them. They don't know what they're talking about. You need to work everywhere to achieve this goal of mass deportations. And Kristi Noem needs to be much, much smarter about it and let Tom Homan do his thing. Okay, last question for the podcast, which is comes from Bill. It's a non political question and you know, I love that he says, I saw your tweet on Sanford and Son. I thought, hey, he's like me. His parents didn't have cable when he was a kid, so he watched reruns on channels 5 and 11. Then I saw the replies that a cable channel, TV Land or featured Sanford and Son. Were you watching on cable or when it aired on TV or what reruns did you watch for essential viewing as a kid? Great question. Because as a child of the 90s, it is something I am incredibly passionate about because being in the 90s and especially when I was growing up on the conditions I grew up in, we only had one television. So you had to watch things that had intergenerational entertainment value. Right. If my grandparents were home, we had to watch something they liked as well as what I liked. And sometimes it was everything. Everyone Loves Raymond and sometimes it was Friends. And a lot of times it was older shows. So I grew up with a broad appreciation of different generations levels of television and music and movies and all the rest of it. And I tweeted about San Francisco because the Star Demon passed away earlier this week. And I love, love, love Sanford and Son. It's like one of the best shows that was ever created. So we had cable growing up. I watched it on Nick and Night. Nick and Knight in the 90s did such a good job at putting on classic television. They had on TV Land, not TV Line. It was Nick at night. It was every Monday, every night of the week, of the weekday, especially in the summer, they would have a whole night dedicated to one program. So it was like on Mondays it was the Munsters and the Monkeys. On Tuesdays, I Love Lucy on Wednesdays was Bewitched. On Thursdays I joined G Genie. And on Fridays it was their Happy days or welcome back. Hotter, like great television of like the 50s, 60s and 70s. And that's how I really got an education on classic TV. And also back back in the 90s, a lot of shows that were even being released them were very reverential to older television. Right. So even if you like, if you watch like the Nanny from the 90s, that show was on with Fran Drescher, she talks about the 70s and the 60s a lot. Even like daytime TV like a Rosie O' Donnell would bring on stars in the 70s and the 60s A LOT. So when I would catch those interviews or I watched those episodes of New Things, they were constantly referencing older stuff in a way that I don't think happens anymore. I don't watch a lot of TV gear towards younger people. Obviously I'm almost middle aged. But that happened a lot more back then than it happens now. And because Gen Z and Gen Alpha and Gen Beta now the new generation is Gen Beta because they all have personalized entertainment. Everyone's got a phone or an iPad. That intergenerational intermingling of entertainment is something that's very much lost on the culture. Something that I believe is completely lost in the culture. And I was very lucky to grow up at the time I grew up and where I grew up because I got information on entertainment. You know, everything from my grandparents singing Dion and Frankie Valli to my parents being kids of the 70s and 80s and playing, you know, Bruce Springsteen and Rod Stewart to modern Day things plus being things being rerun. And I think that's really how I have a very full encyclopedia of entertainment knowledge throughout the decades, in my opinion, anyway. I think I'm pretty good at it. And that's also why I'm much better at talking to someone who's 55, someone who's 17 years older than me, than someone who's 17 years younger than me. Like, I talk to somebody, Someone talking to someone who's 21. I will make a joke and sometimes they'll laugh. I'm like, do you have any idea what I've just referenced to you? And they're like, no, not a clue. And I'm like, damn it, man. Like, you have to, like, work with me here. You've like, why did your parents fail you? So I'm very, very. I do say that some, sometimes openly. I talked to somebody who was like, oh, yeah, my wife's never watched San. I'm like, did her parents not love her like that? What is going on, people? The episode where Red Fox is in the corner courtroom, and it's like, I can't repeat it on this podcast because they try to make it family friendly, but it's so funny. It's so good. It's just so. He was so brilliant. And Edna, anything to do with her was brilliant. I watched reruns, actually, when. When the star of the show passed away this week, because I was like, what a good, good show. That's just perfect comic timing. Not overly crude, and a family could watch and now would probably be pretty. It's probably actually shocking now because the comedy has changed, but that's how I grew up with an appreciation of things. It was because of Nick. At night was a big part of it. And also my grandparents and my parents putting on a lot of older stuff. You knew, by the way, one last thing. You knew growing up in the 90s, if you had cable, that you were up too late. If MASH came on, that was the telltale sign. If my brother and I were playing Uno or cards or whatever and we were up late and I were playing Risk with my cousin and MASH had come on, you knew, guys, go to bed. It is way, way too late. Anyway, that's this episode. Thank you guys so much for listening. I really appreciate it. Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, wherever you get this podcast and I will see you guys on Monday.
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Ryan Graduski
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Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski)
Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Texas Election Shock, the GOP’s Warning Signs & What Comes Next
Date: February 6, 2026
Host: Ryan Graduski
In this episode of "Numbers Game," Ryan Graduski examines the stunning Democratic victory in a Texas State Senate special election, breaks down the real story behind the swing, and challenges prevailing media narratives about Republican prospects. He uses data from recent special elections to analyze broader national trends and answers listener questions in an "Ask Me Anything" segment covering constitutional law, Chinese demographics, ICE deportations, and classic TV nostalgia.
[02:24–14:20]
“A lot of working class people felt like they were going to lose out on tax revenue and on dollars and that this would hurt their school district and their kids. And it was a very personal thing.” — Ryan Graduski [09:20]
[14:20–17:20]
“If you want to have a completely unbiased opinion, just looking at the raw numbers, things do not look good for Republicans. The midterms, it’s almost certainly going to be a Democrat majority... But Republicans are not going to lose 40 seats in the House. It is extremely, extremely improbable.” — Ryan Graduski [16:33]
[17:30–18:30]
[21:17–22:53]
“Police officers don’t have an affirmative duty to respond equally to every situation... The 14th Amendment talks about limits of government power and not necessarily the duty of local law enforcement and how to handle the power.” — Ryan Graduski (relaying advice from a constitutional lawyer) [22:12]
[23:00–24:46]
“500 million is wildly high… 100 million is probably really where it is.” — Ryan Graduski [24:41]
[28:52–32:50]
“You can’t only go where you’re getting local Cooperation, because you’re ignoring too many big population centers. … Don’t avoid blue states. Whoever is saying that out loud, just stop listening to them. They don’t know what they’re talking about.” — Ryan Graduski [29:33, 32:20]
[32:50–39:27]
Ryan Graduski delivers a nuanced, data-driven analysis of the Texas election shock, asserting that local factors—not a national GOP collapse—explain the dramatic result. He shows that, while Democrats are favored in the upcoming midterms, predictions of a historical Republican rout are exaggerated. Through listener Q&A, he blends political insight with accessible explanations and humor, making complex topics relatable and engaging.