← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind The Young Vote & Donald Trump with CJ Pearson
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Ryan Grudusky
Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Grudusky. I am your host. Happy Monday, everybody. Before I get to the main topic of this show, I want to talk about some gossip. I heard, like from D.C. circles about the Epstein files for a second. And this is not like the actual file itself or, you know, what's in it, but it's the background of Pam Bondi before she did that whole binder incident at the White House with those influencers. So I talked to a bunch of people who were there and who have been in and around her orbit since then. So the meeting of those influencers was supposed to be like this giving access to new media thing where a bunch of cabinet secretaries and the President, the vice President got to meet these influencers and whatnot. It wasn't supposed to be anything to do with Epstein. And Bondi walked in with all these binders full of nothing and was like, this is part one and yada, yada, yada. And there was that picture that everyone saw and it basically made the story go mainstream. Well, I've done my homework and I've called the people and I've called a lot of people in and around her orbit because I just want to know why, like, what was the main thing going on to fuel this incident that has made this story live on for like a month now? And there's two things I can point to. First, Pam Bondi allegedly openly hates Representative Anna Paulina Luna from Florida. Congressman from Florida. To the point that she was complaining about her and saying from people around her, saying, I can't stand her and I hate her, while using the female bathroom facilities in the west in the, in the White House. She was complaining about her there. She complained in the hallway. She was saying out loud. And Annapolina Luna, for those who don't know, know, has been trying to push this Epstein stuff for some time for quite a few months, even before the binder incident. And I think, I'm not sure about this, I shouldn't even say it, but I think there's like, beef that goes back to Florida, but I'm not exactly sure. But the prodding and the pushing by Luna over the Epstein file, Bondi thought she was going to steal her thunder by bringing out these binders. And it completely was mishandled and has caused a backlash that is like the never ending story. The second reason, and this came to me from several consultants who I know, and this is a real curveball, was Bondi allegedly was trying to build relationships with these influencers because she's thinking about running for president in 2028. Now, I spoke to someone who's very in the know and they said that she's had conversations about running for the White House in three years. And this is the thinking in D.C. circles, right? Obviously, Vice President J.D. vance and Senator Marco Rubio. No, sorry, Secretary Marco Rubio are in the, you know, the favorites to be the next nominee with the edge obviously going to Vance, but Rubio is very, very well liked and respected. Well, there is this idea in Washington circles, in political circles, that there is an inevitability that we're going to have another woman on the ticket eventually. If not this year, if not starting 2028, maybe in 2032, there will be a female vice president on the ballot or female president on the ballot. Republicans obviously only had one female president ever, vice president nominee ever, in 2008. And Democrats have had them four times in 1984, 2016, 2020 and 2024. So a bunch of Republican women are trying to figure out the way to own the female lane, basically in the next election to be a female candidate like Nikki Haley was Nikki Haley, for as much as everyone dogs her and says how terrible she was, she was the first woman. I mean, credit goes to where it's due. She was the very first woman Republican nominee candidate ever in a primary to win a county and to win a state. So she broke that barrier. So the idea and the thinking is if we, they could be the nominee to win a bunch of states, maybe not win the nomination, but do well enough, they can then secure a top cabinet position like Secretary of State or the Vice Presidency and then run from there. Like basically it's like a two or three step series to break that glass ceiling. And a number of Republican women, like allegedly Elise Stefanik, Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi are talking about how to own the female lane. Is that gonna work? I don't really know. Can Pam Bondi come back from this horrendous PR stunt? I don't necessarily think so. But, you know, stranger things have happened. Donald Trump made A huge comeback, much bigger than this. So is it possible? Yeah, it's likely. I don't think so. But someone is preparing to run to own this female lane and that will be very interesting to keep an eye out on. Okay, now for the main topic of the show, I want to talk about political identity. Because a poll came out from Pew Research and it found that 46% of Americans identify as Republicans and 45% identify as Democrats. You may think that one point lead is not much, but it comes in stark contrast from 2008 when Democrats held a 12 point lead over Republicans. Remember, that was the period, you know, Bush had sunk the economy and the Iraq war wasn't going well. Pew has continued this polling throughout the entire last two decades and this is the best Republicans have ever had it besides 2004. 2024. 2024 was when the Republicans for the first time ever took the lead by a point and they've maintained that lead by a point. Comparing the numbers 2020 to 2025, right? Comparing those that five year change, Republicans have made a three point gain among men and now hold an overall 14 point lead. Democrats, however, have actually shrunk and they have a 10 point lead with women according to the Pew Research poll. But the most interesting part was not necessarily sex or race. It was age. Specifically among 18 to 29 year olds. Republicans have seen their support among that demographic group over the last five years increased by six points while Democrats have seen their support fall by six points. Democrats at one point had an 18 point lead among young voters. That was in 2020. Their lead now is just six points. And there's a sharp gender divide. Men between 18 to 29 support Republicans by 18 points while women between 18 and 29 support Democrats Democrats by 21 points. That is like what you see in places like South Korea where this youth divide by gender is so extreme and it's actually pulling even further in the other direction. Go back to 20 to 2024 election, right when we saw all these high profile, really incredible studies of how young people cast their ballots. In the Trump vs. Harris election, voters under 30 supported Harris, but not by anywhere near the numbers that previous Democrats had enjoyed. In the Catalyst, which is a Democrat analysis firm, they said Catalyst said that Harris had a 10 point lead. Pew Research said that she had a 19 point lead. And David Shore, the very smart progressive data analyst said that Trump's support among young white men under 22 was the strongest support he enjoyed from any demographic group. And he won white women under 20, anyone non white men under 20. So this question is right, Are young people staying Republican or was this just a protest against Biden and subsequently Harris? Because while this Pew Research number is very strong for Republicans and while the 2024 election was strong for Republicans, there are a number of subsequent polls that have come out in recent weeks showing Republican support among young people cratering. And you may see this on social media or if you watch cable news, they'll say, you know, X, Y and Z poll says that Trump support among this part of the coalition or that part has, has collapsed. So what I did was I aggregated all the polling numbers for you guys, right? I judged, I looked at 12 recent public polls that made their cross tabs available to look at how Trump's numbers for with voters under the age of 30among these 12 polls. And they include polls like Atlas intel and Qantas Insight, which nailed the 2024 election. These are not all fake polls that always underperform Trump. These are some of the most accurate pollsters in the last election that said Trump was going to win. They found that the overall average for voters under 30 said that Trump had a 33% approval rating and a 61% disapproval rating. That's a significant number. That is a 28 point negative approval rating for Trump among young voters. What is causing this trend is the interesting question. Now, Trump's numbers are down with every group, as are most presidents when they're serving, Right? Because when you're campaigning, it's just all wonderful ideas. It's all, I'm going to promise you this, I'm going to promise you that I'm going to do this. And then reality sets in and everyone's like, oh, you know, the President hasn't done what I need at the speed I need him to, to my liking, with the media praising him. And America is a very fickle country and we want things very quickly and we want things how we like them. And all of that feeds into that, right? Well, first, Trump's decline with Gen Z is only slightly larger than his decline overall with the national average, right? Because once again, we're all fickle. We all like things that we like them. And there he's declining among everybody. Now, doesn't mean though that this demographic that voted for Trump in record breaking numbers, especially men under 20, will they support Republicans in the next November election in the midterms? There's not a lot of polling on the midterm elections yet. I mean, we're really early, early, so I wouldn't expect it. But right now, given what is out there, Republicans have a negative 20 rating with the youngest voter demographic, which is better than Trump overall, but not by much, but it is better than Trump. So it would suggest that although they do not like Trump and I don't have the exact reasoning for why they are disliking Trump, although it's probably, you know, that everything hasn't happened to their liking as immediately as they do, or they, you know, are inundated with negative media or social media about him and that's affected their opinions. It doesn't seem like they are running back home to Democrats. And I was curious as to is, does that mean that this is a permanent shift? Emerson, which is a pretty decent poll they've got, they become much better pollster than they used to be. I'll say that Emerson did a hypothetical matchup of the 2028 election with JD Vance versus Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg and AOC. JD beat all the candidates head to head. Right. With all, I mean overall, not just any specific demographic, but when you look at young voters, JD basically tied everyone except for aoc. AOC ran away with it. And I wonder, as you see the Mandani campaign grow in New York, as you see other young progressives really get active and take the mantle from the Nancy Pelosi's and take the mantle from the Alma Harris's and the Joe Bidens, is that going to be their answer to young people who feel disenfranchised right now or feel like Trump hasn't met their standards or feel like it's their job to be angry because so social media feeds them that algorithm? I don't know. I think that that's really what we have to wait and see. I think their question is, is the Pew Research estimates right where young men are, you know, basically permanently left the Democratic Party and they are the party of the Republicans vote men under 30 or you know, have the polls over the last few weeks shown signs that young people, that 2024 was a fluke and young people are right back to the Democrats. That's the question we're going to see going forward in this upcoming election and the 2024 election, 2028 election as a whole. But that's really the question over the next 18 months. My guest this week is one of those young people who have been a vocal supporter of President Trump and has used social media to organize for them. His interview is coming up Next. Stay tuned.
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Bubba Wallace
C.J.
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Ryan Grudusky
Pearson is the co chair of the GOP Youth Advisory Council at 22 years old, he made Time magazine's top 100 creators. And his parties in Washington, D.C. have become around. The inauguration became infamous when New York magazine entitled it the Cruel Kids Club. I know they meant that as an insult, but it was iconic. CJ thank you for being here.
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Bubba Wallace
Ryan, thanks so much for having me. Good to see you.
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Ryan Grudusky
Okay. CJ President Trump received a record breaking support among young voters in 2024, especially among young men. What do you contribute that to?
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Bubba Wallace
I think authenticity. I think the President was very intentional about meeting young voters where they were, but also too, he didn't try to change himself or become a chameleon based on who he was talking to. Every time Kamala Harris sat down with a podcast or a late night television show, you didn't know if she was Jamaican, Mexican or whatever else. But when President Trump went on a podcast, he talked about cocaine, he talked about his celebrity friends from growing up in the city of New York and being a real estate titan. People ask me all the time, you know, how did President Trump win the bro vote? He won the bro vote by being a bro, like unapologetically. And I think the results speak for that.
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Ryan Grudusky
Yeah. David Shore, who's a progressive data analysis data scientist, I'm not sure if you read his stuff, but he was. His finding was that young white men under the age of 22 were the most Republican group in the country for like, I think the first time ever. How did you, or how did the GOP in a larger sense help effectively mobilize young people for that election?
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Bubba Wallace
You know, I think going into the election we knew that we were going to have to turn out low propensity voters if we were really going to get the President across the finish line. Right. And I think the podcast strategy, which, you know, Alex Bruschowitz deserves a lot of credit for, was a critical piece of the puzzle on that. Right. Because like these low prenzie voters are not watching Fox News, they're not watching cnn, but they are watching Theo Vaughn, they are watching Andrew Schultz, and they are watching busting with the boys on barstool. And so the President going on these platforms and kind of taking his message in a place where they oftentimes wouldn't expect to hear them or wouldn't want to hear them there. But kind of making them was incredibly effective in that sense. But also too, I think the president's just use and embrace of social media, like TikTok was a big part of it. You know, TikTok, it's a, a little bit controversial in our circles every now and again. But the President had a lot of tremendous success on there. And I remember, like in the early days of the campaign, this was still during the primary, if you were to guess, call it that. You know, we were talking at the RNC, they're like, like, we need to be on TikTok. And there was still this concern about, you know, getting on, you know, a platform, you know, with ties to China and all of these things. But my argument was simple back then, and I think it remains true today, is that we can either see the entire platform to the left, where an entire generation of young Americans will be inundated with leftist propaganda, or we can go and play ball. And what we see is when we go and play ball, we win the ball game.
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Ryan Grudusky
Right? I don't. I knew I was old when I didn't get. I didn't go on tick tock. I just. If I was. If I would have told my family and friends when I was 21, hey guys, we're gonna do synchronized dances together for strangers to watch, they would have put me in an institution. But that's not like I don't get the gen. There's a generational divide between there because. So at the top of the show, I was reading of two conflicting polling data, right? The first was a Pew research finding that young men are overwhelmingly more likely to identify as Republicans. And then a series of recent polls that found President Trump's support among young people has declined substantially, even in polls that really nailed the 2024 election. And I'm going to guess which one you probably think is more accurate. But do you see that there is some kind of declining support among people who maybe voted for Trump but aren't super partisan, or these low propensity voters have kind of shied away from him and hold negative feelings, or maybe even among some non diehard MAGA group? Is there a declining support in any way that you can see?
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Bubba Wallace
You know, not that I can see it, honestly, I gotta tell you, the only poll that I really care about is the one that happens on election day. But looking at, you know, of course, the President and support among young men, I think it's clear as to why they came over to his side. Right? The left has spent the last decade, if not more, demonizing young men for simply being young men, demonizing us for seeking to be providers, protectors and all of those things. And I think that young men were sick and tired of it, which is why they came over to President Trump's side. I'm familiar with the recent poll that came out. And honestly, I'm in the camp that actually it's not because young men are going back to the left or they're drifting, shifting leftward. It's honestly probably because they're a little bit more right wing than we would maybe like to believe here. And so I think there's definitely an eagerness for President Trump to continue to deliver on his America first agenda, which I think he's working aggressively to do every single day. And I think that young voters are smart enough to realize that a lot of the nonsense that the left has been spewing about him and the corporate media has been spewing about him is inaccurate. And I think when it actually comes down to it, when the midterms come to head, I think that they will you follow their behaviors that we saw in the 2024 election, which is a resounding support for President Trump's agenda.
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Ryan Grudusky
Well, I think also we live in a very fickle society where people kind of demand things changed in the blink of an eye. So when things don't, you know, change in minutes, people are like, well, it failed. Then how do you, as a content creator and somebody who spends, who knows, a lot of content creators, especially, how do you combat, like the Harry Simpsons of the world and left wing content creators, like, sit there and talk about Trump's mass deportation or something like that and say, like, it's all negative? How do you sit there and counter that argument?
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Bubba Wallace
Well, I think it's simple. You know, this is exactly what voters voted for, right? They portray these facts that this is just some random thing that just started happening. President Trump ran on this. He was unequivocal that this is exactly what he would do if he was elected. The American people voted for him. He won the popular vote in the Electoral College vote with full knowledge of that. And so I think, you know, looking at the Harry Sissons of the world and other folks like him, you know, they can parrot all these DNC talking points all they would like, but at the end of the day, the president's approval rating when it comes to his handling of immigration is pretty damn high. And it's in large part because of the fact voters want strong borders, they want secure borders. And I think it's exactly why they've latched into this Epstein issue, because they realize that when the president is talking about immigration, he's winning. When the president's talking about actual fairness in trade, he's winning. And they have been trying to figure out what message will actually stick. And now they've latched onto this Epstein nonsense, which is interesting to me because it's so odd to me. They didn't care about protecting the innocence of children until it was a politically expedient issue for them to do so. And they still actually don't care about it because they're okay with transing children and the mutilation of their genitals. So honestly, it's interesting to me that all of a sudden they're so passionate about protecting America's children when they weren't. When it actually could have mattered, or when Bill Clinton was on that plane and went to that island, I think, what, 20 plus times?
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Ryan Grudusky
Yeah. Well, the funny thing is, is that, I mean, so even though CJ's only 22, he's been doing this. I, I thought you were way older because you. I feel like I've seen you do this forever. You.
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Bubba Wallace
I gotta get a better skincare routine, then what's.
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Ryan Grudusky
No, no, no, no. Not age wise. Just because I've. I feel like I met you a million years ago, but it was. You started when you were 12, so it's been a really long time. But when you're even a little older, like I am, I Remember in like 05 04, Afghanistan being like the titular issue and Democrats saying, just give us the house and we'll get out of Afghanistan. They got the house in Afghanistan. The withdrawal did not happen, you know, in any time fashion. And I kind of think the Epstein thing is the same thing, is just give us and we'll release the documents. And I don't think those documents are ever coming to light in any. But no matter who's in charge. But that's just my opinion. What was the, what do you think was the thing when it comes to. I think, I think there's a surprising thing going on with young men in the sense that the left's message to them, from what I see from like young progressive influencers, is it's your own fault that you feel like you can't make it. And like that kid who smokes the anxiety pen or whatever the case may be, that person had a nervous breakdown on Instagram or whatever. Yeah.
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Bubba Wallace
And.
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Ryan Grudusky
But when you, When I see some like, right wing or, or conservative commentators on who are young men, they are more right wing than what you would have seen on like, let's say just fox news, like 20 years ago or 10 years ago, what was acceptable conversation about, about policy? A lot of people, and I guess, yes, the mainstream media would say this is A horrible thing that they've been converted for this. But haven't they just been pushed into this by, quote, unquote, acceptable opinion from mainstream outlets over the years? You know what I'm saying?
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Bubba Wallace
Yeah, yeah, I would think so. And I also think too, it's important to, you know, read this against the backdrop of the fact that we're the COVID generation. You know, I graduated high school in 2020. I had my high school graduation robbed away from me, I had my high school prom robbed away from me, all of these things. And we saw the effects of these draconian progressive policies in real time in a very visceral way. And I think that this is still front of mind for a lot of young people in my generation. And so I think that when you ask, why are they swinging so far to the right? I think it is a direct result, the fact that we swung so far to the left. And the pendulum is just going in the other direction right now. For a long time, leftist progressives, they could go on TV and say, death to the white man. They could demand reparations, they could, you know, justify furries and, you know, litter boxes in public schools. And this was just common discourse. Like, and they weren't, you know, like CNN was putting these people on TV and treating them as if, like this was legitimate point of view. And so, you know, don't you dare.
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Ryan Grudusky
Make a beeper joke on cnn.
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Bubba Wallace
Right, right.
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Ryan Grudusky
I don't ever do that.
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Bubba Wallace
But it's like one of the things too. It's like, I'm not surprised to see the pendulum swing in the way in which it has because for a long time, I think, you know, young people, especially young men, they were told we're not allowed to think these thoughts, we're not allowed to say these things. And so now I think in a kind of a post cancel culture environment where everyone's kind of emboldened and people can say things they, you know, usually probably weren't allowed to say, and even things too. It's like, you know, having, you know, you said it, like, having been doing this since I was 12, like seeing the what's acceptable discourse kind of change, you know, things that would have gotten you absolutely, like, banned from Fox News, you know, many years ago, you know, now people are just, you know, up and at it. So I, I think it's in large part because of the fact the left for a long time treated young conservatives, especially young men, as like an underclass. And we're just kind of over it and we're like, no, like fuck these people.
- [27:06]
Ryan Grudusky
What? Well, there goes the explicit note on the disclaimer on the podcast episode. What? It's never me cursing, it's always my guest. By the way, you have such a.
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Bubba Wallace
Great network of fol.
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Ryan Grudusky
I know. Well, I mean the. Okay, so just in two questions that linger in my mind, so let's say that, you know, Trump's numbers, when young people drop because they drop, every incumbent president's numbers drop because they have to actually do things and people are upset with, you know, the speed and which things get done and whatnot. But does this support for Trump that he experiences, record level support, does it transfer over to the Republican Party and large?
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Bubba Wallace
You know, I think that remains to be seen. I think, you know, JD as like kind of the heir apparent is really good at doing a lot of what the President did during the campaign. Right. You know, sitting down with, you know, the Theo Vaughn's of the world, the Joe Rogans of the world, and making a strong case for, I think, the future of the movement. Does it translate to folks down ballot? I don't know. You know, it's one of those things where I think the President's gonna have to go out and actually do these rallies. And thankfully, you know, he's a high energy guy and I think he wants to do it. He wants to go to Georgia, he wants to go to North Carolina, he wants to go to a lot of these target seats and districts. So I think they'll have that going for them. But I think Republicans are gonna have to really frame to these low propensity voters. And this is a problem that we've seen, right? It's like when Trump is not on the ballot, people just simply stay home. And so I think that what we have to really do is frame the urgency of this and why it's gonna be so important for us to expand our majority in the Senate, hold on to the House as much as we can. Because we're seeing it right now every single, you know, it's so crazy. It's like Mike Johnson's most slept on person in Washington. Every single time a big bill comes up, everyone's like, how is he going to do it? How is he going to do it? And I'm sure that Mike Johnson is stressed out trying to figure out how he's going to do it. So let's give him a majority that he can actually work with where you don't have, you know, a few errant members, you know, who can hold the entire caucus hostage. Right. And So I think we've got to frame that urgency. How do you do that for young voters who don't really know about why these majorities are so important or why it's important for us to have a 10 seat majority rather than a 4 seat. I don't know. There are smarter people who can answer that question. It's definitely going to be, I think that's the elephant in the room. How do you make this as urgent as the 2024 election was? And that's going to be the challenge.
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Ryan Grudusky
Yeah, I think that trying to get low propensity voters out in the midterms is, I mean, that's really the whole kid and caboodle. Because what people often sit there and ask about is like, how did seniors become so left wing? And I said, it's not that they became so left wing, is that the people that you think of as seniors are probably no longer with us. And the people who are seniors were, you know, they were. It was a very old reference I'm gonna say to you, which you probably might not even know. But if you watch like all in the Family, Archie Bunker in real life has passed away and his like liberal hippie children are senior citizens now. So like the conservative ones that you think of from like 30 years ago are probably no longer with us. Or if they are, they're in a nursing home. And the, you know, former hip children of hip, the former hippie generation is senior citizens now. So that's, I think, the big confrontation. And if you're relying on 18 to 22 year olds, I think that's the biggest thing. If you're a young person today and you want to be active and not make this your whole career, but, but voice your opinion and support them, what should you be doing as someone who's done this for so long?
- [30:34]
Bubba Wallace
Yeah, I didn't get involved in a campaign. That's how I got my start. When I was 12 years old, I showed up to the campaign office of now Congressman Rick Allen and I just started knocking on doors and making phone calls. And I learned a lot from that campaign and I think it's kind of helped me as a commentator. Right. Because I think there are a lot of influencers in this space who don't necessarily understand politics. Right. But they understand ideology, they understand that they love MAGA and they love America first policies. But in terms of like the actual mechanics of making these things, things happen, it may not be like their strong suit. And it goes back to the point that you were making earlier. It's like, a lot of people get dissatisfied with things not moving at the speed of light. But I think anyone who kind of has worked in these spaces and kind of understands the way Washington works, nothing is really meant to move at the speed of light in this town, unfortunately, unless it's a bad idea. And so when it comes to getting involved in all of those things, I would say, start on a campaign. It's going to change your life. You meet so many cool people. There's nothing like that grinding. But also, too, it's never been easier to kind of be an influencer. It's one of those things where it's like, I saw a recent study where it was like, the number one job for Gen Alpha is to be an influencer, which is interesting for a lot of reasons. But I think, go on, TikTok. Start talking about these issues and dig deep and kind of just be a truth teller. The only way that we're going to beat back the bad ideas, the Harry Sissons and the Parkers and, and the Reeds and all those people, is if we put our ideas out there and we flood the zone with our better ideas and our better policies. And so that's what I would recommend. And what I would also say, too, is like, have the courage to stand up for yourself in your college classrooms. I get messages all the time from college kids who are like, you know, my liberal professor is so crazy. I just, like, always want to challenge her, but I feel bad, like, I don't. I think she's going to come for me or whatever. You know, courage is contagious. You know, when I was at the University of Alabama, you would never think that there would be a liberal professor there, but there were. And I would raise my hand and I would push back if she said something that was, you know, anti Trump or just flagrantly incorrect. And after class, people would walk up to me and say, C.J. like, I was thinking that, but I just didn't have the courage to say it. But maybe they'll say it next time. And so I think, be bold, stand on business, and use the tools that you have to platform your voice and amplify the passions that you care about.
- [32:47]
Ryan Grudusky
Yeah, that's happened to me in college all the time. I was the only one. That's probably why I didn't finish college. So, yeah, that's probably not the best advice that you want to. To finish college. I also want to say what C.J. said. There's not many influences who know the mechanics of campaigns. There are almost no influencers and all the mechanics of campaigns, not just a few. I could probably name the ones that do on one hand and there's not many. Do you ever notice like the Harry Simpsons and all those people all the same haircut, by the way. I'm just thought of that while you were talking about there's like one hair.
- [33:17]
Bubba Wallace
It's probably poll tested. I'm sure the center for did a nice poll on, you know, what's the douchiest haircut that we can do that will lure in young women who love men with testosterone deficiency and still, you know, help us somehow appeal to the Brovo. Yes.
- [33:32]
Ryan Grudusky
Well, okay. C.J. where can people go to follow all your stuff and, you know, keep in touch with you and, and, and read what you're doing?
- [33:40]
Bubba Wallace
Yeah, definitely. Well, thank you so much for having me, Ryan. It's always a fun time. They can keep up with me on all the platforms. My username is the CJ Pearson and I'll see them there.
- [33:48]
Ryan Grudusky
All right. Thank you for being on this podcast.
- [33:50]
Bubba Wallace
Thanks for having me.
- [33:50]
Ryan Grudusky
You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Gusky. We'll be right back. Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment of this podcast. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, please email me. Ryan numbers game podcast.com that's Ryan numbers game podcast.com I love your emails. I read them all and I try to respond to them either privately or on the show. So our first question comes from Jonathan Payne. He is right. He writes a very long email, so I'm going to summarize it. He talks about Oregon, that it's a pretty red state outside the city of Portland and how Portland keeps the entire city voting Democrat. And he wants wants to know if there's any chance that Oregon will be voting Republican in the near future. Jonathan, great question. And it wasn't that long ago that Oregon was a swing state. In 2000, George Bush lost Oregon by 0.4%, basically the margin Pat Buchanan took for him in the Reform party. And in 2004, he only lost by four points. Since then, however, it's taken a sharp turn to the left. There was, I think, the best, it was the best performing candidate in the since George Bush was Mitt Romney's 42%. That's a pretty paltry number. Oregon is elected just two Republicans statewide since the year 2000. They also managed at one point to win the state House back for two years. But aside from that, it's been pretty disappointing results for Republicans. And when you look at the data of how voters have registered in the state, it's even worse. Since 2016, Oregon have lost, has lost 130,000 registered Republicans while gaining 11,000 Democrats. And it's not just Portland, because they bank a million voters from Port or a lot of voters from Portland. I shouldn't say an exact number. They bank a lot of voters from Portland, but they also get a lot of voters out of Eugene and Bend and Salem. And as I said my last podcast episode, Democrats have gerrymandered the heck out of that state. So even though it's gotten a lot bluer, if they had fair districts, Republicans would have two congressional seats, which they don't. They only have one. But there's no signs on the horizon that we're going to see a red, poor Oregon anytime soon, regardless of even what Portland does. I mean, maybe if everyone there writes in Bernie Sanders name, it would be interesting, but it's, it's, it's pretty blue and it's only gotten bluer. Next question comes from Wesley Russ. He also has kind of a long question. So essentially, okay, so he's asked basically why polling on mass deportation has changed. Is it because pollsters have changed the way they frame the question? Great, wonderful question, Wesley, because we do know the way that pollsters ask questions often affect, affect the outcome of those answers. There are two answers behind this. First being that the conditions have changed in America. Biden allowing millions of people into our country illegally changed the feelings of Americans and it increased people's uncomfortableness with demographic changes. But because we're conditioned to be like such a supportive of legal immigration that you can criticize, they've kind of, even Republicans, especially Republicans, have really push this on illegal immigration. It's all illegal immigration. You know, they do the Ted Cruz meme. Illegal good, illegal bad, legal good. But even before this, you know, even before this, before 2020, you saw a lot of polls where Americans supported mass deportation, even though the pre, the, the candidates running our country did not. A 2011 poll from Gallup found that 53% of Americans supported deporting all illegal immigrants, including 70% of Republicans. A Reuters Ipsas poll from 2017 found 51% of Americans supported deporting all or some or most illegal immigrants. And this change against mass deportation really went into high gear when two things happened. One, the racial reckoning of 2014, where Democrats became woke on race. And secondly, when Trump went into office and Trump's main issue being deportation and a border wall meant to be for those subjects you must be for Trump, so you had to be against them in order to be against Trump, which really made those subject matters decline substantially. And that's true of the issue of the border wall funding as well, or supporting a border wall. A Washington post poll in 2013 found that 53% of Americans favored building a 700 mile long fence. They use term fence instead of wall, but 700 mile long fence across the southern border, including a majority supported it. When the price tag was revealed to be $46 billion, a majority of Americans still supported it, including a plurality of Democrats. And that only changed because Trump supported it. Because that's what happens in politics is that you live we live from knee jerk reaction to knee jerk reaction. We have to have basically this partisanship partisan ship has gives you provides like an immense sense of brain fog where you feel the need to oppose or support something based upon you're getting signals from your elected officials or the candidate you like the most or the leader of your party. So when Trump became synonymous with a border wall, guess what? Democrats hated the idea of a border wall even though they supported a $46 billion border wall just three years prior. Anyway, that's a wrap though for the answer. I hope that it was. I hope that it was good. I hope that you enjoyed this podcast. Please like and subscribe if you are listening on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast wherever you get your podcast and if you're feeling generous, please give me a five star review. It really means a lot. It goes far so people can see and hear about the podcast and I will see you guys on Thursday.
- [39:38]
Bubba Wallace
Ah, come on.
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