It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Trump's Approval Ratings with James Johnson

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Trump's Approval Ratings with James Johnson
Release Date: May 1, 2025

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Introduction

In this insightful episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, hosts Clay and Buck delve into the intricate world of polling and political numbers, focusing specifically on former President Donald Trump's approval ratings. Joining them is James Johnson, a seasoned pollster and founder of JL Partners, who provides expert analysis and challenges mainstream polling narratives.

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Canadian Election: A Clash of Major Parties

Overview of the Election Results Clay begins by discussing the recent Canadian federal election, highlighting the significant comeback of the Liberal Party. The Liberals secured 43.7% of the vote compared to the Conservative Party's 41.7%, resulting in a narrow two-point victory and winning 169 seats. However, this number is insufficient for a majority, indicating a likely minority government formation with potential support from smaller parties like the Progressive New Democratic Party or the Bloc Québécois.

Conservative Surge and Demographic Shifts Buck emphasizes that despite the Liberals' victory, the Conservatives had their best performance since 1988, gaining 7.6% more of the popular vote compared to the previous election. This surge is attributed to a 15 to 20-point increase in support among minorities, immigrants, young voters, and blue-collar workers in manufacturing-heavy regions outside major cities like Toronto and Vancouver.

“The Canadian Conservative Party had their best performance since 1988... conservatives gained 7.6% more of the popular vote than they got last time.”
— Clay Travis [06:45]

Realignment Parallels in the U.S. and Europe James draws parallels between the Canadian election realignment and similar shifts observed in the United States and Europe. He notes that younger voters, ethnic minorities, and blue-collar workers are increasingly leaning right, while older, college-educated voters are moving left.

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Trump's Approval Ratings: A Polling Controversy

Mainstream Media vs. Alternative Polls The conversation shifts to Trump's approval ratings, where Clay mentions recent headlines claiming Trump has the worst approval ratings in modern history. However, James Johnson counters this narrative by presenting data from alternative pollsters like Atlas Intel and Qantas Insight, which show Trump's approval ratings at -6% and -3% respectively, significantly better than mainstream polls averaging around -11%.

“I am more inclined to believe an Atlas Intel Poll or a Qantas poll showing that Trump's approval among Republicans probably hasn't dipped all that much.”
— James Johnson [12:30]

Discrepancies Explained James explains that the discrepancies arise from different polling methodologies. Mainstream pollsters often over-sample demographics that favor Democrats, such as college-educated voters and certain minority groups, leading to more negative ratings for Trump. In contrast, alternative pollsters are better capturing the loyal Republican base and independent voters who still support Trump.

“The fundamental problem I think is that they are using traditional methods in an information ecosystem that isn't traditional anymore.”
— James Johnson [22:08]

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Demographic Shifts and Their Impact on Polling

Republicans and Independents James highlights that alternative pollsters are capturing a more accurate representation of Republican support, with Trump maintaining strong approval among Republicans (mid-80s) and higher support among independents compared to mainstream polls.

“We have a really interesting generational shift here... these are not people who have traditionally voted a lot in these elections.”
— James Johnson [31:27]

Hispanic Voter Dynamics The discussion also covers Hispanic voters, where some polls suggest a decline in support for Trump. James clarifies that while support has stabilized, many Hispanic voters remain open swing voters rather than firmly backing any party.

“I spoke to an 18-year-old black man in Nevada... he was voting Trump for the first time of anyone in his family... they haven't lost them either.”
— James Johnson [30:19]

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Economic Factors: Tariffs and GDP Concerns

Impact of Tariffs on Approval Ratings A significant portion of the decline in Trump's approval, according to exit polls, is attributed to his tariff policies. Initially, tariffs boosted his image as a strong leader, but subsequent softening of these policies led to skepticism about his economic strategy.

“We asked people in that same poll, what is the reason that you feel more negative towards Trump?... the most mentioned word in the word cloud was tariffs.”
— James Johnson [26:02]

Economic Performance Indicators Clay mentions that the GDP shrank by 0.3%, which raises concerns about the economic direction under Trump. However, James remains optimistic, suggesting that the narrative of economic doom is exaggerated and that there is still time before midterm elections where polls will matter more.

“Our GDP numbers have just released as we're recording this podcast on Wednesday, showing a shrinkage in the economy of 0.3%, which is concerning.”
— Ryan Gradusky [26:15]

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Polling Methodology: Challenges and Innovations

Traditional vs. Modern Polling Techniques James critiques traditional polling methods, such as landline surveys, which may not accurately capture the current voter landscape. He advocates for modern techniques like in-app polling, which engage a broader and more representative audience.

“We're using traditional methods in an information ecosystem that isn't traditional anymore... you've got to approach them a different way.”
— James Johnson [22:08]

Bias and Sampling Errors He points out that over-sampling certain demographics can skew results, as seen in flawed polls that predicted incumbent losses based on biased sampling. James emphasizes the importance of accurate sampling to reflect the true voter sentiment.

“The fundamental problem is that they are using traditional methods in an information ecosystem that isn't traditional anymore.”
— James Johnson [22:08]

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Conclusion and Future Insights

Strategic Recommendations for Trump and the GOP When asked for strategic advice, James suggests that the Trump administration should focus on policy implementation rather than reacting to poll fluctuations. He recommends doubling down on economic plans and showcasing tangible achievements to regain voter confidence.

“My first instinctive answer is ignore the pollsters. Do what you think is right for the country.”
— James Johnson [34:42]

Teaser for Next Episode Clay and Buck wrap up the discussion by highlighting James Johnson's upcoming appearance, where he will delve deeper into his polling methodologies and provide further insights into the political landscape.

“One pollster that I did not mention in summary of all these polls is my buddy James Johnson... he'll be with us next.”
— James Johnson [17:33]

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Key Takeaways

• Canadian Election: The Liberal Party secured a narrow victory, while the Conservatives saw significant gains, indicating shifting political dynamics akin to those in the U.S. and Europe.

• Trump's Approval Ratings: Alternative pollsters present a more favorable view of Trump's approval compared to mainstream media polls, highlighting methodological discrepancies.

• Demographic Influence: Shifts among Republicans, independents, and Hispanic voters play a crucial role in shaping approval ratings and election outcomes.

• Economic Policies: Tariffs and GDP performance are central factors influencing public perception of Trump's administration.

• Polling Methodology: Traditional polling methods may no longer accurately capture voter sentiment, necessitating innovative approaches to achieve representative results.

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For more in-depth analysis and updates on political polling, subscribe to The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show on your preferred podcast platform.

Transcript

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[James Johnson]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gradusky. Thank you all for being here again this week on this Thursday's episode, once again on twice a week. So please like and subscribe. So you're on both episodes. You get both episodes every week. It means a lot to us. It was a very busy week and I want to start off by thanking everyone who sent me a message on social media wishing me a happy birthday. That meant a lot. It was really, really great. If I have the, if I, if I can, I just want to go on a little jaunt for a second on the birthday I went to go. There's something called Lucky Seats.com in New York where we you can win lottery tickets for cheap Broadway tickets. So I did. I won them. And I went to see Sunset Boulevard with Nicole Scherringer. Scherringer, I think is her last name. She's from the Pussycat Dolls and America's Got Talent. I'm sure you may have picture or her song somewhere. Anyway, so she's starring in Sunset Boulevard. She's getting all this praise. We go to see it. I've seen the original with Glenn Close, you know, a while ago. And everyone's saying this is like the show to see. I go to see it. It was a flaming pile of garbage. It was horrible in my opinion. It was one of the top five worst things I've ever seen. The show is from a Billy Wilder movie from the 50s. It's not a musical. The original movie. It was made to a musical by Andrew Lloyd Weber starring Glenn Close on Broadway. Patti LuPone started it in London. It's about an aging silent film actress in the 1950s and 40s, rather, who wants to make a comeback. And she's kind of going insane because she's believing that she's as famous as she used to be. And it worked for Glenn Close because Glenn Close kind of looks a little crazy once in a while. Like the 101 Dalmatians, Glenn Close. And she looks like an older woman, an older actress. Nicole Scherringer, who starred in this version, looks like a very young, good looking woman, although she's probably of the correct age for the time. She doesn't look the age anymore. It was in a black box theater. It's everything bad about like New age theater. It like people are in tracksuits. There's no time coordination, there's no costumes, there's no sets. And there's at no point do you believe that she's actually Norman Desmond. It was horrible. Okay, sorry. I had to say that to somebody and no one wants to hear me. Ran about theater and you're my captive audience, so you get to hear about it. Now to the news of the actual week. I want to go back and focus on what we talked about last week and earlier this week because it's important and it's still something that people are talking about. And the news broke. So first of all, the Canadian election. The Liberal Party, as expected, made the big comeback, biggest comeback in Canadian politics and won their fourth consecutive government. They beat the Conservative Party by 43.7% of the vote to 41.7% of the vote, winning by two points. They got 169 seats, they call them writings in Canada instead of seats, but 169 writings unable to form a minority government, probably with the support of either the Progressive New Democratic Party or the French Canadian Party, the block Quebecs. So we'll see what goes on, how they end up forming government. But they have minority government. The casual viewer in America who doesn't really spend a lot of time listening to Canadian news or Canadian politics, which is most of us, no shame. But it is what it is. They sat there and they heard about it and on social media they were like, well, I guess Pierre Polar Bear, the leader of the Conservative Party who ended up probably losing his own seat in the Parliament, his own writing that actually flipped to the Liberal Party. He must have done a terrible job. And just like the party lost and they're, they just, they weren't, they were insufficiently conservative. I want to actually go a little deeper for the, for the American audience who may not know what actually happened and really give you a good understanding. First of all, the Canadian Conservative Party had their best performance since 1988. They grew their coalition based upon the data of these writings of these seats by 15 to 20 points among minorities, immigrants, young people and blue collar voters in the area outside of Michigan, that part of Canada which is very heavy manufacturing free, very blue collar in the ethnic suburbs outside Toronto and Vancouver. There was like a 15 to 20 point swing in some of these districts. Some of these writings. Overall, conservatives gained 7.6% more of the popular vote than they got last Time. So what happened? Well, first of all, baby boomers happened. Baby boomers. Number one issue in Canada, according to the exit polls, was stopping Trump. Young people wanted the economy to be better. Old people wanted to stop Trump. It is like a whole nation of Rachel Maddow viewers. It is problematic. That's why when you hear people say, someone say, add Canada as the 51st state, no, please do not keep them where they are. We don't need that. Also, college educated voters move to the left. This is why Pierre Polever's seat flipped, because he's in a very heavily college educated writing. He's in a very college educated district, districts that used to be solidly conservative. It's the same thing we're seeing in America in the last election with Trump. It's what we're seeing in Europe, this great realignment of young people, of ethnic minorities, of blue collar people moving to the right and older voters, in many cases moving to the left. And that's what we saw in Canada. And this is the best election for the conservatives since 1980. It sets them in a good place for the next election, certainly depending on what's going on and who's ever in charge of our country and their country and what their economy looks like. But that is what happened. It wasn't a complete disaster for the Conservatives. It was a big disappointment. But if the third parties, one, one last thing, the third, there's multiple progressive parties in Canada. There's the Green Party, the Bach Quebec, the New Democratics, whatever. The New Democratics lost almost all their support. Their numbers plummeted. So it wasn't so much as the center was holding for the Liberals. The New Democrats, part of the block Quebecs, part of the Green Party moved to the Liberals. So the far right moved to the Liberals and the centrist voters who were part of the Liberal Party moved to the Conservatives. They're just happening more far left Liberals in Canada than there were centrists who moved. So that's what happened. Wasn't a complete disaster for the Conservatives. It was actually a fairly strong showing and we'll see what happens in that country going forward. And on Monday show, we talked about Trump's first 100 days in office. Now, this show was taped ahead of the Monday program, which we always do. We say but at least a few days ahead of time, or a day ahead of time in this case. And we taped the episode on Friday. Well, of course, on Sunday, what comes out? But a ton of new polling polls that we didn't mention when I taped on A Friday because we didn't have them yet. And the headlines from the Washington Post and the New York Times and, you know, a bunch of other publications said Trump has his worst performance in history. He's the worst performing president of the modern era, worse than he did the first term. Republicans are on, you know, a precipice for doomsday disaster. You've heard these headlines before. They were regurgitated. So I wanted to go over them and I pulled all the data. I put on my substack, the national populist newsletter. It's free there for everyone who wants to listen. And you have to subscribe. You can just go there and read it. I pulled all the data and I want to go over it. So from April, these were the major polls. And I'll give you the poll, the name of the pollster and the margin at which Trump's at the ABC Washington Post poll had them at negative 13. New York Times had a negative 12. CNN had negative 14. CBS was negative 10. The Economist was negative 9. Fox News was negative 11. Atlas intel was negative 6. Pew Research was negative 19. Quinnipiac was negative 12. Qantas Insight was negative 3. And so if you average that out, you have about a negative 11. That's where he is on average, negative 11. But there's two numbers there that are much different than all the other numbers. Atlas intel and Qantas Insight. Atlas intel has them at negative six. Qantas Insight has them at negative three. They're both taken a little while earlier in April, but after Liberation Day, after the tariffs, Atlas intel was the number one most accurate pollster of 2024. Qantas was the third most accurate pollster of 2024. So why are their numbers significantly better for Trump than the New York Times, Sienna, New York Times, Siena poll, the CNN poll, the Washington Post poll. Why are they different? And they actually match an nrcc, that's a National Republican Congressional Committee internal poll which had the president negative seven. So they're in the same, they're all playing the same kind of realm. So why are their polls much different than the mainstream media polls? I went through the cross tabs to look. The major difference is there's a double digit difference among Republicans. First of all, Qantas and, and, and Atlas, their polls have Trump in the mid-80s among Republicans. All the other pollsters have him barely crossing 70. And I am more inclined to believe an Atlas poll or a Qantas poll showing that Trump's approval among Republicans probably hasn't dipped all that much. I mean, Republicans have been loyal to him for a lot crazier things and a lot more ups and downs than just the tariff announcement. Also a double digit difference among independents. Some of these polls have Trump's independent numbers in horrific territory. I mean, I'm talking negative 35, negative 47, negative 36, negative 25. Negative 25 is actually a good number in some of these polls. Atlas intel has met negative 18 and Qantas has been negative 12. That's a much different place than negative 37. It's not great, but it's not negative 37. These double digit margins matter a lot. And overall, the average among Hispanics for these polls is much higher. Hispanics saw this big realignment like the one we just saw in Canada. We had a realignment in 2024. Hispanics move to the right. Did they all of a sudden move to the left of the realignment get erased? And the big, big, big question mark that kind of raised on my Spidey senses, my pollster Spidey senses was this. His support among black voters is as high as it was post election. So in other words, all of the decline of support among among minorities really primarily comes from Latino. Could that be because of mass deportations? Maybe. But could it also be from oversampling Latino progressives and Democrats and centrists? Yes, it could, because that happens quite a bit. It happened throughout the 2024 election in many polls that said Trump could not cross 35% among Latinos when he crossed the mid-40s. I think that all those things are feeding these negative poll numbers. And I am more inclined to believe in Atlas Intel Poll, which is matching the NRCC poll, which is matching the Qantas Insight poll, over the sexy headlines that the New York Times and the Washington Post and all these other outlets really have been pushing forever. That's my personal opinion. Now we'll see what happens. Tariffs have been destabilizing the market. Our GDP numbers have just released as we're recording this podcast on Wednesday, showing a shrinkage in the economy of 0.3%, which is concerning. It's not a per. We're not in a great place. But I don't believe we're in a doomsday scenario. I don't think Trump's in a doomsday scenario. And I think we have a while till the midterm election where polls really start to matter. But I don't think that the prevailing narrative, like it's not in the Canadian election, the prevailing narrative over Trump is not accurate. One pollster that I did not mention in in the summary of all these polls is my buddy James Johnson. He is a pollster from the he was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2024. He has a much different opinion than the headlines and the prevailing narrative over Trump and he'll be with us next. So stay tuned to hear what he has to say.

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[James Johnson]

James Johnson is the founder of JL Partners. He has a lot of stuff that gets published in the Daily Mail. He was once the pollster for the Prime Minister of England. He's a good buddy of mine. James, thanks for being on this show podcast.

[Brian]

Thanks for having me, Brian.

[James Johnson]

So you have a new poll out from. It's on the. It's in the Daily Mail. What is your findings on Trump's approval rating?

[Brian]

Right, so we do think that Trump's approval rating has gone down. We've got it at 45%. Before, we were actually above 50% for Trump. In fact, two weeks ago, we had him at his joint highest approval rating. So we've generally shown better numbers for Trump than the average. We do think he's come down a bit. We think he's in the mid-40s. We think, however, that he's nowhere near some of the more dire ratings that some of the pollsters are putting out. So we don't think he's on 38, 39%. We think he's in the mid-40s. Actually, by Trump standards, that's really not that bad.

[James Johnson]

Right. So, okay, so first things first. I did, I looked at all the polls that has just recently come out and the interesting thing about them where pollsters like you, Atlas intel and Qantas insights, you, the three, your three polls are much more alike with each other than 10 other polls. What's your, what's his unfavorable number? If his favorable is 45, 55, we.

[Brian]

Do it without the donors.

[James Johnson]

Okay, so. Oh, gotcha. All right, so it's 10 with, with no donors. Gotcha. Now the thing that I found interesting and the reason I think it was interesting is that in the ABC Washington Post, the New York Times, cnn, cbs, economists, you name it, Trump's favorable numbers with all those pollsters among Republicans is somewhere in the low 70s. The now for you guys, for your poll that just came out, it's 5 and that 10 point margin among Republicans and also you have a substantially higher support among independents. That makes up a large chunk of the favorability rating. Do you think there's any possibility like 1 in 4 Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of him?

[Brian]

No.

[James Johnson]

No. Okay.

[Brian]

And if this is the thing, so I think a lot of pollsters are, well, I think there's a lot of reasons behind this. But the fundamental problem with some of these polls is that they are still getting too many Harris voters in their samples. Now that was a problem in 2024 where people were getting too many people intending to vote Harris, but they've now got too many people who voted Harris in 2024 in their samples today. And that's a reason you're getting these Republicans who actually are not indicative of Republicans as a whole. They're Republicans who actually perhaps opted for Harris in 24 or, or indeed didn't vote. So I think we're getting these pollsters who, they did not do very well in 24 and now they're putting out these bad approval ratings to Trump. I have to say, right. I find it baffling. I find it incredible. If you just take the three pollsters with the, with the lowest Trump ratings that also had polls in 2024. Let me read them out to you. ABC, Washington Post Ipsos. They've got 39 Trump approval. They had Harris three points ahead in November. CNN SRSS 41 Trump approval. They had Harris winning by six points in Wisconsin, five points in Michigan. New York Times Sienna often talks about as a gold standard, 42 Trump approval. They had Harris winning all the swing states, bar Arizona. Now I don't need to point out to your esteemed listeners that's not what happened. Trump won the popular vote and he won all seven since swing states. So I find it Slightly baffling that these media outlets are still hiring the exact same pollsters with the exact same methodology. That meant that they fell so so far wide the mark in. In event.

[James Johnson]

Well, I mean, the New York Times poll did a little better than the other ones because I believe they were in margin of error in most of the swing states, which is why I still listen to them. I like CNN for the fact that they show cross tabs. I mean, that's really all I have to go for them. I'm like, okay. At least I can see though. I can see the work. And a lot of other polls either don't show cross tabs or they show limited ones. Even like Quinnipiac, which shows limited ones. But. So you wrote a piece with a Spectator where you went in on these pollsters and why that they were wrong. Is it the fact, and this has been my long standing opinion, especially when it comes to polling senior citizens, senior citizen poll. In many polls, like even the New York Times Siena poll which you just mentioned, in the swing states in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, they had Harris not only winning seniors in those states, but they winning them by double digits. I think in Michigan they had her winning by 20 points. Senior citizen senior citizens have moved to the left as older senior citizens who were, I would say silent generation or greatest generation have died off and baby boomers who are more progressive have become senior citizens. I said, it's like, you know, it's like Archie Bunker was a senior citizen. He's no longer alive. Meatloaf, the liberal son in law is a senior citizen now. But among senior citizens there is a, there are, there are older liberals who are, you know, MSNBC viewers who would break someone's neck to go answer a poll. They will do anything to answer a poll. They cannot wait to tell you how much they hate Trump. And that same kind of participation is not, is not there for conservative senior citizens. Do you find that as well? Is that why we're seeing these numbers that are sometimes very often that in that demographic, Yeah, I think that's a key factor.

[Brian]

Our research during the 2024 election showed that the group that was most likely to pick up a landline polling pool were older white middle class women. Now, I haven't got anything against older white middle class women. They're an important group to poll, but they're not so important that they should flood your polling answers. And that group is more likely to vote Democrat than Republican. This, by the way, is what was behind Ann Seltzer's disastrous Iowa poll. She only used landline polling. She picked up more of those people. She thought that was the story of the election. It was actually the story of her polling bias. So that is that. That is a big element. Look, the fundamental problem I think, to this, to that poll, to others, is that they are using traditional methods in an information ecosystem that isn't traditional anymore. Every voter, I sort of think of them having it as having a bubble around their head. And they've got media on one hand giving them some things, they've got AI on the other giving them some things. They've got social media, they've also got their friends and family, they've also just got their own view of the world. And polling has to sort of overlap with that bubble. You can't just go people on landlines and only penetrate a bit of that. You've got to approach them a different way. So one of the things that we do alongside the traditional methods is in app polling. So if you're playing a game on your phone or your online shopping, you get a notification. Do you want to get a discount or do you Want to win 50,000 in game points? Complete this short survey. It picks up people who are not, who are not answering those traditional things. It picks up more disengaged people. It also picks up busy people. Ryan a key part of the Trump coalition were busy blue collar workers who weren't going to go and answer a poll. It wasn't because they didn't distrust the polling. It was because they were working all day and didn't have the time. So, yeah, that's a big factor too.

[James Johnson]

When you have like the Economist, which asks the Economist, you go polls, which literally ask 187 questions. So, like you have to spend an hour of your day. Now they pay people to do those polls, which I think also feeds into the inaccuracy. But you have to do 180some OD questions. So in your, so in your piece that you know that Trump's approval ratings have gone down, how much of it is tariffs and what is the conversation tariffs are having among.

[Brian]

So we asked people in that same poll, what is the reason that you feel more negative towards Trump? And we ask that of people, of everyone. But we've narrowed it down in the analysis to Trump voters now, too small a sample to say too much about. But the general gist of those answers was that it was about tariffs. And we actually did a word cloud. And the most mentioned word in the word cloud was, was the word tariffs. However, I think it's more complicated than just people think tariffs are bad. I don't think they do. When we, when, when Trump first announced his Liberation Day tariffs, we actually had Trump's approval at 54. The week after, they respected, when we dug into the numbers, they respected a sense of direction, a sense of strength, a sense of this is what he said he'd do. What we've actually seen happen since is that since Trump softened and changed some of his positions on tariffs, voters have lost a bit of that benefit of the doubt. They're less saying, he's strong, he's getting things done, he's taking a strong stance on this. They're more saying, well, I still trust Trump, I still like him, but I'm not quite sure what the strategy is, what's the plan here? And that's taken away a bit of that respect and it's made people worry a little bit more about the impact on their 401k in their wallet.

[James Johnson]

So, look, that's exactly what I've been saying to everyone in Washington is, is that I don't, I, who work in the media a lot, and I know every, I know a lot of members of Congress and the Trump administration, and I work for the Vice President. I don't know what, what the plan is. I don't know. I don't understand what the end goal is with the tariffs. And it's very, very frustrating. I'm looking at your word bubble right now. Tariffs is like not only the biggest word, it takes up, I think probably 40% of all the space available. And then in the lower words, the words that are, are not as big as tariffs are. Tariff tariffs spelled a different way with two R's instead of two F's. Musk, Elon, Doge. And then minor lower is like deportations, which is very, very, very small, but it's most China's, there is a small bubble. Ukraine is a very small bubble, but it is almost entirely tariffs.

[Brian]

Yeah. And I think it's particularly this, this, this watering down that people have, have wondered. Look, from a political comms point of view, that's either a question, that's either an issue of, well, you know, perhaps the U turn, perhaps he shouldn't have changed position or perhaps he shouldn't have brought it in the first place if it was always inevitably that it was going to change position. It reminds me of a British example, Ryan, of Liz Truss. She was Prime Minister in the UK for a very short period. She ended up resigning. She went from pretty good approval ratings to cataclysmically bad ones. And the reason is not so much because of the economic policy that she took, but the fact she reversed it massively. She lost that, that hunch. Now look, I don't think we're seeing the same thing happen here. I don't think we are seeing an abandonment of Trump. I think this is people just going a bit like, oh, okay, I'm still with him, but what's the plan? They want that reassurance. I don't think it's an abandonment on trust levels, but it's similar in that it's the reversal that's done the damage rather than the policy itself. But just very quickly, Riley, so I just want to pick up on something you said there. What this isn't, it is not a backlash against deportations. It is not a backlash against the case of Garcia in El Salvador. It is not really even a backlash against Elon Musk or Doge. It's not a backlash against Trump's style. It's not a backlash on Ukraine and Zelensky. It's a very particular thing that has just made them doubt whether Trump's got a strategy on the bulk of the Trump policy platform. His voters are still really, really behind him.

[James Johnson]

Now, I want to bring up something else you put in your poll. I'm looking at the cross tips you've made about approval disapproval with the neutral there with the, I don't know, Trump's numbers on Hispanics have fallen substantially and this has been in a lot of different polls. It actually makes me question whether they're all correct or not. Did the entire realignment that affected how, you know, this election, last election went and Hispanic supporting Trump, has that fallen apart because of deportations?

[Brian]

No, I don't think it has. I think we have to be careful with those small, small cross tab numbers. I think all pollsters at this stage, remember, are not trying to predict an election. So they therefore are a little bit like, you know, that they're spending a bit less money, frankly. And I think that's also why we get a lot of these more garbage polls coming out because people are just actually investing a lot less in it because their reputation is riding on it less.

[James Johnson]

Right.

[Brian]

So I'd always be, I'd always be cautious even with my own poll about, about cross tabs at this, cross breaks of that level at this stage. Well, I've, I've carried on doing one to one voter interviews with, with, with voters since, since the election. And I was actually doing Hispanic voter interviews in Nevada a couple of weeks ago and the general gist that I get is that actually, although they do not want to go out and show and talk to their friends and family saying they're in support of deportations, actually their support for them has basically remained pretty stable since the election. Yes, they're more nervous about talking about it and telling the neighbors that they support President Trump. But actually on the bulk of the fairness issue, I think they're pretty much in line. The message I got again and again and again in the election I still get now is I did it the right way, these people did it the wrong way. So I don't think that's gone. Look, I don't think these Hispanics, especially Hispanic men who came over to Trump, I don't think they became lifelong Republicans overnight, but I do think they became swing voters for the first time in that election. That doesn't mean the Republicans have got them for good. It means they're up for grabs, but it also means they haven't lost them either.

[James Johnson]

Got it.

[Brian]

Okay.

[James Johnson]

Well, that's, I mean, that's good to know. The other part of the cross tabs and I know not to get too obsessed with them, but this is not linear cross tabs. This is in everybody's young people, young people. There was a research done by David Shore that showed that young men between the age of 18 to 21 were the most Republican demographic. The Yale poll came out right afterwards showing that young men were plan voting for Trump for Republicans in the 2026 midterms at the greatest portion of any group. Your poll has Trump falling, I think, 20 points among young men. Other polls actually have it for much, much lower. Not young men, young people as a whole. What is your opinion of the youth vote and how that's changed? Because they would seemingly be the least affected by, by tariffs in the stock market because they don't have, you know, a lot of stocks and they're not, you know, their 401k plans rather small compared to like Boomer or Gen Xer.

[Brian]

It's interesting. I think that that is right. But they are also a group, young men are also a group that are more likely to be plugged into financial news. And I think they're more what our research has shown. They're more likely to be tracking things like cryptocurrency, things like stocks on their phone than actually any group, even those who actually have more stocks. So it's interesting, they do seem to be a bit more plugged into that sort of information system that that means that they see those, those things. So I think There's a bit of that. Look, again, I would just come back to the point that I don't think there's any, I don't think they're lost for good by any stretch. I think we have got a really interesting generational shift here and I do think young men both in America and in other countries have having a real backlash to some of the stuff that's been out there about gender, gender rights. I spoke to a 18 year old black man in Nevada as a swing voter interview. He was a first time Trump voter. I mean he was first time voter but he was voting Trump for the first time of anyone in his family and for him. I asked him why and he just came back to the Democrats are pushing nonsense on gender and they want, you know, they're pushing all this stuff on trans and I'm more interested in the economy now. His view was that Trump had to improve the economy for him to carry on voting Republican. So he's not with Trump for good, but he's giving Trump a chance and he's giving the Republican Party a chance. I do think though that if the Republicans need to be concerned about one thing, it's how they get out these younger men, younger non white voters who gave Trump a vote for the first time. How do they get them out in 2026? Because these are not people who have traditionally voted a lot in these elections. And that's the big challenge, I think.

[James Johnson]

Yeah, I mean that's the problem where you have with, with, with the, with boomers moving to a lot of people who are always voting, voting consistently. You'll have, that's why you're seeing the special elections move 10, 20 points in some seats that they're really not competitive in. And it might be a very big problem for the midterms. I, I agree with that sentiment. I don't really know the answer, top of my head, but I think that that is a really important part. What is the most, if you were to sit there and talk to somebody about, from like the White House about, and the administration about the whole tariffs, would it be to double down on a plan or to kind of walk back and announce a bunch of free trade agreements and, and just, you know, call it a day, what would be, what would, what would be the best impactful for polls? You know, because you have a few months until they start really mattering ahead of the midterms. But what, what would your opinion be?

[Brian]

Yeah, look, my first, I'm gonna, I promise I'm gonna answer your question, Ryan, but My first, my instinctive answer to that is ignore us. Us, ignore the pollsters. Do what you think is right for the country. Like, you know, look, President Trump, if, if he's going to face what usually happens at a midterms, which is that the opposition wins, then he should use this two years to do whatever the hell he wants to improve the country. So that, that would be, that's my fundamental answer. But if you're looking at how to message it best, I think it, you know, and I, I think that it's probably now showing that this is a plan that is paying off and that it's resulting in this free, this free trade deal, this trade deal, tying it back to it. If they can't do that, then I think it's probably best to get off the issue and move on to something else.

[James Johnson]

James Johnson, where can people go to read your stuff, read your polls, all your information.

[Brian]

So they go on Twitter, X is the best place. James Johnson, 252 and if you also look on jlpartners.com that's where we upload all of our latest polling and you can also get in touch there if you're interested in any, any further information.

[James Johnson]

Well, cheers. James Johnson, happy birthday. Thank you so much. You do great jobs in polling and people should check it out now.

[Brian]

Thanks so much, Ron.

[James Johnson]

You're listening to it's the Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll be right back after this message.

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And now for the Ask Me Anything part of this show. Once again, please send me a question about literally anything that I can answer. I'll do the research for you can email me ryanumbers game podcast.com that's that's plural numbers ryanumbersgame podcast.com my email this qu this week was actually simple. Do you have a book recommendation for me? And I do so this is not a popular World War II book. It's not like huge, but it's one of my favorites called Diary of a Man in Despair by Friedrich Reich. R E C K It is a book about a German aristocrat watching the rise of Nazis and losing his country. It is written from a conservative perspective. It is beautiful. It's heartbreaking. It's his own. You know, it's his, it's his diary. So it's, it's, it's very powerful. Beautiful book. Love it, love it, love it. Cannot recommend it enough to people. Once again, Diary of a Man in Despair by Frederick Reich. Quick and easy. And it's also not super long. I'm in the middle of reading a book right now which is like 700 pages and sometimes it's this is this book's a slog. It's a good book, but it's a slog. So maybe I'll give you a review when I'm finally done with it. Anyway, thank you all for listening this week. I really appreciate all of you. Please like and subscribe at the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts. And please check us out next week. Thank you all.

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