It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Trump's First 100 Days in Office

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show Episode: "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Trump's First 100 Days in Office" Release Date: April 28, 2025

In this comprehensive episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, host Ryan Gradusky engages in an in-depth conversation with Mark Caputo, a distinguished reporter from Axios, to dissect the intricate numbers and policies that have defined Donald Trump's first 100 days in his second term as President of the United States. The discussion navigates through major pillars of Trump's administration—Dogecoin (Doge) initiatives, immigration enforcement, and trade tariffs—while also examining the broader economic impacts and the president's standing in the public eye.

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1. Executive Orders and the Doge Initiative

Overview: President Trump has demonstrated an aggressive approach to governance by issuing 137 executive orders within his first 100 days, surpassing all predecessors. A significant portion of these orders focused on the Doge initiative, aimed at slashing federal spending and increasing government efficiency.

Key Points:

• Record-Breaking Executive Orders: Trump’s issuance of 137 executive orders marks an unprecedented pace, with previous presidents like Joe Biden and George W. Bush signing 7 each, Barack Obama with 11, and Bill Clinton with 21.

• Doge Savings: Initially touted to save taxpayers $2 trillion, subsequent revisions reduced the claim to $1 trillion, and later to $150 billion. However, The New York Times scrutinizes these figures, revealing that only $58 billion of the claimed savings are verifiable through itemized grants, contracts, and leases.

• Administrative Challenges and Public Perception: Despite substantial claims, Mark Caputo emphasizes, “Doge hasn't seen the level of spending cuts that they hoped for,” acknowledging both praise and criticism from conservatives and legal challenges from opponents.

Notable Quote:

Mark Caputo [03:26]: “Doge hasn't seen the level of spending cuts that they hope for.”

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2. Immigration Enforcement: A Torment of Policies

Overview: Immigration remains a cornerstone of Trump's agenda, with significant strides made in enforcing existing laws and introducing new directives to manage illegal immigration more stringently.

Key Points:

• Apprehensions and Deportations: Under Trump, 22,726 illegal aliens were apprehended in both February and March 2025, starkly contrasting with 72 apprehensions in the same months during Biden’s administration.

• Executive Orders on Immigration:

  • Ending Birthright Citizenship: Targeting illegal aliens and temporary visa holders.
  • DNA Testing: Implemented for illegal aliens to streamline identification and deportation processes.
  • Safe Third Country Agreements: Reinforcing the stance to keep migrants in Mexico.
  • Halting Refugee Resettlement: Directly opposing Biden’s previously established CHNV program.

• Litigation and Judicial Challenges: Trump's immigration policies have faced extensive legal battles, resulting in a multitude of nationwide injunctions. These legal hurdles pose significant uncertainty regarding the enforcement and longevity of the executive orders.

• Interior Deportations: Approximately 28,000 illegal aliens were removed from the U.S. interior between January 20 and March 19, 2025, with ICE detaining 48,000, marking a 30% increase from the previous year.

Notable Quotes:

Podcast Host [03:00]: “What's been the biggest crisis the media is obsessing over is Trump's handling of mass deportations.”

Mark Caputo [25:08]: “...if there was some goodwill before... I think some of that's exhausted with all but the really hardcore conservatives on the Supreme Court.”

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3. Trade Policies and Tariffs: Revolution or Chaos?

Overview: Trump's administration has launched a series of aggressive tariff policies aimed at correcting trade imbalances and revitalizing American manufacturing. However, the implementation has led to considerable economic volatility and mixed reactions from businesses and the stock market.

Key Points:

• Tariff Impositions:

  • 10% Blanket Tariff on all imported goods.
  • 145% Tariff specifically targeting goods from China, effectively amounting to a trade embargo.

• Economic Impact: The tariffs have led to a 10% decline in major stock indices, including the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500. Additionally, the U.S. dollar has experienced depreciation, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down the U.S. growth forecasts.

• Corporate Response: Despite economic turmoil, significant companies like Johnson & Johnson, Apple, Honda, and Nvidia have announced plans to reshore manufacturing back to the U.S., spurred by fear of ongoing tariffs.

• Policy Inconsistencies: Mark Caputo highlights the lack of a unified narrative from the administration’s economic team, with differing explanations from Peter Navarro, Commerce Secretary Lutnick, and Treasury Secretary Bessette causing confusion and unpredictability in policy execution.

Notable Quotes:

Mark Caputo [32:12]: “Donald Trump is the only president who’s really given voice to this problem and the only president who’s really tried to solve it.”

Ryan Gradusky [31:00]: “The tariffs have caused a lot of volatility, with the value of the dollar decreasing.”

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4. Economic Indicators and Public Sentiment

Overview: The economic landscape under Trump's administration is a battleground of conflicting indicators and public opinions, heavily influenced by his aggressive policy measures.

Key Points:

• Approval Ratings:

  • RealClear Politics reports Trump's approval at 46.1% with disapproval at 51.6%.
  • Breakdown reveals 50% approval among white voters, 40% among Latinos, and 21% among black voters, highlighting demographic disparities.

• Poll Insights: Voters express mixed feelings about Doge policies and are predominantly unhappy with tariffs. However, there is notable approval for Trump’s immigration enforcement, despite legal controversies.

• Voter Base and Swing Voters: While Trump maintains high retention among his loyal base, his standing with swing voters remains precarious, particularly among independent voters and younger demographics.

• Economic Uncertainties: The fluctuating stock market, declining home sales, and IMF downgrades contribute to economic anxieties that could influence upcoming midterm elections.

Notable Quotes:

Ryan Gradusky [06:34]: “I’m all for cutting wasteful spending and to do whatever they can... It's part of his campaign promise.”

Mark Caputo [43:46]: “There is still some sort of pent up goodwill in the market where if there is a more Cohesive, intelligible, predictable, reliable presentation of where we’re going to go and how we’re going to get there.”

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5. Future Implications and Legacy

Overview: As Trump’s first 100 days unfold, the long-term implications of his policies are still unfolding, with significant attention on judicial appointments, legislative achievements, and electoral prospects.

Key Points:

• Judicial Appointments: Contrary to his first term, Trump has made no judicial appointments in this spree, leaving 45 federal court vacancies unfilled and raising questions about his commitment to shaping the judiciary.

• Legislative Agenda: Trump is actively working on a new tax bill, which promises notable changes such as no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, and possibly a millionaire’s tax—anticipated to be a significant legislative milestone.

• Military and International Relations: Efforts to improve military recruitment, foster a peace deal with Ukraine and Russia, and encourage NATO allies to increase defense spending are also underway, though their outcomes remain uncertain.

• Electoral Prospects: Despite a strong base, Trump's overall approval ratings and economic maneuverings present challenges ahead, especially with the approaching midterm elections. Mark Caputo suggests that the current economic volatility might favor Democrats, but the steadfast loyalty of Trump's base ensures his significant influence within the Republican Party.

Notable Quotes:

Ryan Gradusky [44:00]: “He needs to increase those numbers big time and try to get some stability in the economy and get the economy growing again.”

Mark Caputo [40:00]: “He is the only guy who’s really tried to solve [the trade imbalance]. The question is, is his solution, is the cure worse than the sickness?”

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Conclusion

The first 100 days of Donald Trump's second presidency illustrate a tenure marked by bold policy initiatives, substantial executive actions, and significant economic shifts. While his administration has made headlines with aggressive spending cuts, stringent immigration enforcement, and transformative trade tariffs, the real-world impacts of these policies are complex and multifaceted. As Trump navigates legal challenges and economic uncertainties, the coming months will be pivotal in shaping his legacy and influencing the political landscape leading into the midterms.

Stay tuned as Ryan Gradusky continues to delve into the numbers that drive today's most pressing political narratives, providing listeners with the insights needed to understand the unfolding dynamics of American governance.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Mark Caputo [03:26]: “Doge hasn't seen the level of spending cuts that they hope for.”
• Mark Caputo [25:08]: “...if there was some goodwill before... I think some of that's exhausted with all but the really hardcore conservatives on the Supreme Court.”
• Mark Caputo [32:12]: “Donald Trump is the only president who’s really given voice to this problem and the only president who’s really tried to solve it.”
• Ryan Gradusky [06:34]: “I’m all for cutting wasteful spending and to do whatever they can... It's part of his campaign promise.”
• Mark Caputo [43:46]: “There is still some sort of pent up goodwill in the market where if there is a more Cohesive, intelligible, predictable, reliable presentation of where we’re going to go and how we’re going to get there.”

---

For more insights and updates, visit iHeartPodcasts.

Transcript

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[Podcast Host]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gradusky. Thank you for being here for another week. Very excited. This is a jam packed week with news.

[Ryan Gradusky]

You have the Pope's funeral over the.

[Podcast Host]

Weekend, the Canadian federal election today, my birthday is tomorrow if he wants to shout that out. And Trump's 100th day in office is on Wednesday. So a very busy week, a very exciting week. And I want to talk to you about the pinnacle of Wednesday about Trump's first 100 days in office. Technically it's his second 100 first days in office because it's, you know, the first non consecutive presence in Squirrel or Cleveland. I don't know what you call it.

[Ryan Gradusky]

But that's what it is.

[Podcast Host]

Going into his second term, many in the media expected Trump to be a lame duck president, that he couldn't do very much because he only had one term to serve unless they change the Constitution and he can run for a third term, which I'm going to guess is unlikely. So here are some numbers behind Trump's second 100 days. He has so far issued 137 executive orders, a record breaking number, signed five bills into law and stated that he would put tariffs of over 11% on on 57 countries. Now though he's passed relatively few laws. Joe Biden and George W. Bush signed seven during their first 100 days. Barack Obama signed 11, Bill Clinton had 21 and actually Trump's in his first term, his first first 100 days signed the most at 24 according to the UK Independent. I think when you look down and you boil down for Trump's first 100 days of his second term, you come down to three big issues. The three issues that have defined these last 100 days, defined especially in the eyes of the media, they are doge, Immigration and Trade. So let's start with Doge. At the behest of the President, Elon Musk began working to slash spending and make the federal government more efficient, he announced last week. Elon Musk announced last week rather that he's going to step away slightly from the role as as I guess he's not head of Doge, but overseeing consulting doge, but the team he's created will still be in charge of the federal agencies. DOGE is set to Sunset on July 4, 2026. So I guess for the next 14 months. They'll continue now. While the group received a lot of praise from conservatives who cheered that he's going to end, and he's ended contracts and useless federal agencies and programs like USAID because he. Because he gutted that one. Musk has claimed that Doge has saved taxpayers $150 billion. That's a lot of money. Heck, I think when you have deficits this high, anything in the billions as far as cutting is a lot of money. But the $150 billion claim is just 15% of what Trump promised when it comes to waste foreign abuse. Remember, he originally promised $2 trillion in cuts, and then when he president came into office, it was 1 trillion. Now, his company was 150 billion. When the New York Times looked at the numbers, it gets a little murkier. According to the New York Times, 60%, or 92.2 billion of that $150 billion came from unitemized savings. Things that hard to prove. The savings that are easy to prove, that they can justifiably prove was 32.5 billion in itemized grants, 24.8 billion in itemized contracts, and 397 million in itemized leases. Basically empty offices. The building that the government was wasting money on, empty offices and buildings across D.C. so from what we can itemize from savings, Doge has saved taxpayers that we know of. Definitely. That we know of. $58 billion. Now, that's not nothing. I believe in order to balance a budget, you need to cut anywhere you possibly can. I'm all for cutting wasteful spending and to do whatever they can. And it's important for Trump because he needs to sit there and quote, unquote, pay for tax cuts. He needs to sit there and try to balance the budget. It's part of his campaign promise.

[Ryan Gradusky]

But Doge as a whole came with.

[Podcast Host]

A lot of attacks on both Trump and Elon Musk. Elon Musk's negative numbers have increased substantially during his time at Doge. And we saw a series of lawsuits over whether who we could fire, what contracts he could end, and what happened to sensitive federal data he accessed. Was the apple worth the bite? I guess we'll see. But Doge hasn't seen the level of spending cuts that they hope for. But I guess stories on Doge seem so 30 days ago in this administration. The current crisis the media is really obsessing over is Trump's handling of mass deportations. So let's get some numbers on that. The numbers of illegal aliens who were apprehended at our Southern border in both February and March of 2025 were 22,726. That's according to the Border Patrol. Those are both during months that Trump was fully president. So he was fully in charge. 22,726 aliens apprehended at the border with very, very, very few being released. In the year prior Of February and March 2024, when Biden was still president, 72 illegal aliens came to our southern border, with many being released into the interior of the United States. So just by enforcing the law already in the books, remember, Trump did not get any new laws when it comes to the border. He just used the laws that are currently on the book has saw a 94% reduction of border crossings over a one year period. It is truly remarkable. He proved we did not need new laws. We just needed a president and political willpower to sit there and enforce the current laws. Now, we signed a number of executive orders on illegal immigration, most notably ending birthright citizenship for illegal aliens and temporary visa holders. DNA testing of illegal aliens, Safe third country agreements remain in Mexico, ending catch and release, halting refugee resettlement, canceling Joe Biden's absolute, absolutely ridiculous CHNV program, which would have protected migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela from being deported while they applied for asylum. And he used the Alien Enemies act to deport gang members and send them to a maximum security prison in El Salvador. Now most of these executive orders are tied up in litigation with district court judges giving an unprecedented amount of nationwide injunctions, more than any president in history, and I believe actually almost as many, if not more than all the nationwide injunctions among every president in history combined, very few have made their way up to the Supreme Court so far. Some are slowly making their way. The executive order over birthright citizenship. Oral arguments begin in mid May, so we'll have to wait and see. We'll see how many of these executive orders are given the green light by scotus. How President Trump handles the decision, how he continues to execute his executive authority. Definitely Stephen Miller has shown that he's committed to the project of mass deportation, which Trump promised during the campaign. And he's using every available law at his disposal. Now, while it's difficult to get an exact reading of how many illegal aliens currently are in the country, that in the country that were currently deported, these are called removals by ICE as of March 19, which is the last available day that they gave a hard number. There's supposed to have another one in the next few days. As of this recording But President Trump removed 28,000 illegal aliens from the interior of the United States from his time in office on January 20 till March 19. Here's where the data gets tricky. Donald Trump is outpacing Joe Biden when it comes to removals. People that are in the country that he is arresting with ICE and deporting that are leaving the country. But the media can categorize it and has categorized it by saying that actually he lags Biden because ICE also is responsible for removing illegal aliens detained at the border. Well, as I said before, Trump's law enforcing the laws on the books has caused border crossings to drop by 94%. So there are fewer illegal aliens to remove crossing the border to begin with. You can make the argument that Biden deported more people. It's a argument not based completely in truth. It's an argument used to push a narrative. But, I mean, there's, there are some facts into it, but what you really have to look at is interior deportations. Interior deportations. And when it comes to interior deportations, Trump is absolutely outpacing Joe Biden in the first seven weeks. ICE also arrested 48,000 illegal aliens living in the interior of the United States and put them in detention centers. That is a 30% increase compared to the year prior. So no matter what the media says, interior deportations, interior enforcement under President Trump are up compared to his predecessor. And lastly, let's talk about trade. Just a few weeks ago, President Trump announced that it was Liberation Day from the Rose Garden and that he announced tariffs on dozens of countries, as well as a blanket 10% tariff on all products entering the United States. And to say it went less well than expected is an understatement. Now, of all the issues Trump has campaigned on over the last decade, nothing means more to him than trade imbalances and the trade deficit. He has spoken about this going back to before I was born. I mean, he's talked about this for decades, that he wants to rebalance how we do trade. So here he is during his second term, doing exactly what he's always wanted to do. 10% tariff on all imported goods. Increased tariffs on some countries that have tariffs on American goods, they're called retaliatory tariffs. A 145% tariff on all goods from China. I've talked a lot on this podcast of why I think it's important to try to reshore American manufacturing. I can't understand how did the administration only tackle reassuring manufacturing from just the tariff perspective? I've said constantly, I've wrote about this, how federal contracts are a really important part of the narrative that I don't think the administration has used enough of. It's also daunting to try to understand and find the reasoning and the end goal behind these tariffs. Depending on who you're listening to, whether it be Peter Navarro or Commerce Secretary Lutnick or Treasury Secretary Bessette, you're hearing different things. If anything, the biggest problem of the latter part of the Trump's 100 days of this administration is that they haven't been on the same page at times, leading into complicating and sometimes worrying effects in the economy. The tariffs have caused a lot of volatility, with the value of the dollar decreasing. The Dow Jones, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 all losing about 10% of their value since the that Trump was sworn into office. Now, the volatility and the fear of tariffs have also worked in Trump's favor. His sort of madman approach to economic policy was successful in getting some companies to announce that they're bringing manufacturing back. According to CBS News, Johnson and Johnson, Abbott Laboratories, Apple, Chobani, Crazy Art, Honda, Hyundai, Rochi, Nvidia and TSMC all announced multibillion dollar plans to bring manufacturing back into the United States because of fear of tariffs. So they're gonna start making some stuff in America. That part is a win, even though it's been very messy and the stock market has been very down and it's led to, you know, tons of bad stories for this administration. Now, while I think trade, immigration, Doge are the biggest parts of his first 100 days, they're the issues that define it in the media. And to a lot of voters, they're not the only things he's tackled. He's improved military recruitment and retention rates. He's been working on this peace deal with Ukraine and Russia. Let's see where that goes. He's pushed our NATO allies to increase more spending in defense, and he's working on his tax policy. It's probably going to be the most significant piece of legislation during his term in office is this new tax bill he's working on. No tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, possibly a millionaire's tax. I mean, who knows? If there's anything, though, that I've been surprised by In Trump's first 100 days is he's made actually no judicial appointments. He's not made a single one. Remember, during First Trump's first term, he was breaking numbers, breaking records as far as judicial appointments. And so far, he has appointed exactly zero people to the federal judiciary, despite there being 45 vacancies on federal courts, three in the appellate court and 42 in district courts. So with all this information I just gave to you, how does this affect him in the eyes of voters? How does this affect him in the polls? According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump's approval rating in April, from April 7 to April 23, stands at 46.1%, while his disapproval number is at 51.6%. Of course, not all polls are created equally, and I'm looking only at certain high quality pollings that give their cross their cross tabs or the cross tabs available to the public. That's really important to me. I'm looking primarily at Signal, Pew Research, Fox News, Atlas intel and cbs. The narrative is basically the same. Americans are pretty mixed on doge, they're very unhappy about on tariffs, they're very worth the economy, and they are very much giving him the thumbs up when it comes to immigration, although they do want him to who listen to court orders when it comes to people who are deported under stranger circumstances or there's a lot of litigation over it. But overall, they support mass deportation. But among these major pollsters with cross tabs open, Trump has a 45 approval rating. It stands at 50% with men, 40% with women, 50% with white voters, 21 with black voters, 40% with Latinos, 46% with seniors, 37% with voters under 30, 43% among voters with a college degree, 48% of those without a college degree, and 36% among independents. That isn't wonderful when it comes to swing voters, especially for Republicans going to the next year's midterm. He's going to have to increase those numbers big time and try to get some stability in the economy and get the economy growing again. That will be a major point of contention for congressional Republicans going into the midterms and President Trump now, once, once again, there aren't great numbers with swing voters, but among Trump's base, they are extremely loyal. Almost no Trump voters are sitting there and saying, I made a mistake. It's very, very high retention among his base, which Trump has kept. He's kept that for almost a decade at this point. He's kept his base together through thick and thin, and that is enough to keep him in office and to wield significant influence over the party. And when it comes to keeping the promises he made to those voters, Trump's done a pretty good job in the first 100 days. Mark Caputo a brilliant journalist from Axios is my guess. He's up next. We're going to talk about the first 100 days, what these policies mean, and what it's looking like in Trump's first 100 days, his legacy, and the upcoming midterms. Stay tuned.

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[Ryan Gradusky]

Our guest this week is my buddy Mark Caputo. He is a brilliant reporter from Axios. Mark, thank you for being on.

[Mark Caputo]

I owe you money for that kind introduction.

[Ryan Gradusky]

No, Mark, you are one of the best in the business. So March, April 30th is Trump's 100th day in office. How would you characterize his first 100 days?

[Mark Caputo]

I would divide it in half. There was and I should count the number of days to have a better specific answer. But there was the Trump administration up until Liberation Day and then there was Liberation Day. On Liberation Day being that period where he's like, okay, tariff time and that's where things got really choppy.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, I say it's over. Three issues has been the first 100 days. There was the doge, which was the first, which was the first apocalypse according to the media. Then there was immigration enforcement, which is the second and then the tariffs were the third. That's the three headed apocalypse of the Trump administration's first 100 days, some more successful than the others. Doge, it looks like when they have hard numbers of what it actually saved. Saved by $57 billion. Not a small amount in my opinion, but far less than what everyone was saying was going to happen.

[Mark Caputo]

Like Elon Musk talking about 2 trillion, then a trillion, then 150 billion. Yeah, yeah, it's.

[Ryan Gradusky]

That's most, most. 150 billion is unitemized deductions that they don't know where he's talking about it from so. But 57 billion is a hard number. He is announced on Tuesday he's stepping away from the daily day to day activities. Doge is supposed to Sunset on July 4, 2026. Overall I don't know if it's if it's left the impression the legacy it was supposed to and I don't know if it's an overwhelming success. I kind of are on the side of it's probably more more or less not.

[Mark Caputo]

It has all of the quality of over promising and under delivering with an added dose of sort of kind of the chaos on top of it. When you talk about the three headed monster, I mean two of those I generally kind of ignore because to your point those were sort of of mainstream media freakouts. Right. They didn't really get into the public mind, the public pocketbook. When the stock market started going sort of haywire with the Trump tariffs and the mixed messaging and the two steps forward, one step back, another step to the side that was different up until that point. One of the the folks at the White House I'd spoken to talked about how they kept a calendar and they were happy and they said every day I put either a W win loss or a draw. And at first it was just all W's. Now I haven't spoken to them again. But there have been far fewer W's since the tariff situation and drama has taken over.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, I would say that Doge is kind of, I mean I guess 57 billion, 37 billion. It's not a loss, but it's not what they promised. On immigration interior do deportations far exceed Joe Biden's 30% increase of people detained? When they say that the deportations were higher under Biden, they're including people who.

[Podcast Host]

Were returned away at the border.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, since there's been a 96% reduction of border apprehensions, which is the actual amount, it was like 95.9% reduction. There are less people to turn away at the border. Therefore if you look at just interior enforcement, that number is up significantly. What what I and we'll see what happens when it comes to the actual deportations of all these executive orders. And the big gem in my opinion, the big big prize if he can get is the Supreme Court ruling on birthright citizenship for non citizens for illegal aliens and temporary visa holders. That will be the if he can get that. I don't know if he will be able to but if he can, it will be the biggest victory I think.

[Podcast Host]

On the right when it comes to.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Immigration, and I don't even know since Eisenhower, it's a. Yeah, I find it hard to believe.

[Mark Caputo]

I'm not a constitutional scholar, but when I read the plain language, the 14th Amendment, it's hard for me to see how the court is going to side with the President. I understand there are these historical readings. Historic or historical? Historical. That is, at the time they were talking about slaves, they weren't talking about immigrants. Today's immigration system is different now than it was then. Essentially didn't exist back then. But to the degree the Supreme Court is a political body, and I think all bodies are political bodies to a degree, when they have human beings on them, especially those in the government process. Trump's legal team and his administration have increasingly sort of picked fights with the courts that it might not needed to have picked. And so I think it's fair to say that if, and I'm using a lot of weasel words, if there was sort of some goodwill before where it's like, oh, let's give them the benefit of the doubt. I think some of that's exhausted with all but the really hardcore conservatives on the Supreme Court.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Why? Is it because of the. But not listening to lower court decisions on border on deportation?

[Mark Caputo]

I think so, yeah. And remember Roberts? Justice Roberts took that sort of extraordinary step of rebuke, might be too strong a verb, but, you know, sort of telling Trump like, hey, you know, back off criticizing these judges just for doing their jobs. I think that would. That was notable. That having been said, I do think that they are going to be able to get a number of victories out of the court on immigration regarding the big case. Kilmar, Abrego Garcia. The Supreme Court has already signified its discomfort in having the judicial branch tell the executive branch, hey, we're going to tell you how to conduct foreign policy now that this guy is overseas. It's a really messy case. My conspiracy minded half when I wear it makes me think that maybe they chose this case for a reason, but it's probably a little more organic. My guess is there was an ICE agent in Maryland, in the Baltimore area who knew Kilmar, who wanted to get him. And now that there's, you know, the Trump regime, the Trump administration's back. They're like, okay, buddy, we're going to get you. And so they got him. They got Kilmar in the system. Now it's a question, did someone actually know that there was a withhold on deporting him him to El Salvador or not? I'm not sure. But the bottom line is, is that he was deported to El Salvador unlawfully or in violation of court order. And now here we are.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Right. I mean, it's just I, and this is, I guess it's a bigger conversation than we, than we can afford. And I'm not a legal brain either, but I just, I think that, I think when they give the courts give these temporary protections from deportation out of fear or intimidation, and then that, that, that what would have caused fear for your life has ended in the case of, of, of, of this, of the, of the Maryland man, is this rival gang, the rival gang doesn't exist anymore. So what is your fear of deportation anymore? And this, I mean, predates this. There were cases like in Honduras where there was an earthquake and people were here for 20 something years out of fear for their life, for an earthquake on a temporary protection.

[Mark Caputo]

Was it earthquake or was it, was it Hurricane Mitch?

[Ryan Gradusky]

I was Hurricane Mitch. That was it. But it was 20 something years ago and they were still here on a temporary protected status over a hurricane from 20 years ago.

[Mark Caputo]

Right. I mean, it just goes to show that a lot of things once, once they're called temporary really aren't temporary. There is, of course, the media coverage angle of this. The, the, a lot of people in the mainstream media are eliding some of the more complicating aspects of Abrego Garcia's story. If the reports out of Tennessee are true, where he was stopped driving a vehicle of a guy who had been busted for human smuggling and he had a bunch of people in the car he wasn't related to who all gave the same address that he did, like, well, maybe we should look at whether or not the feds got it right that this guy was engaged in unlawful activities.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah.

[Ryan Gradusky]

If you, I mean, by the left making him the face, the poster boy of the perfect illegal immigrant who should never been deported. If it goes left and there is, you know, a literal or figurative body in the closet, it's a real problem for Democrats. It kind of undermines their entire argument for any stopping any future deportations under President Trump. So. But overall on illegal immigration, Trump has been more a pretty big win overall successful by far.

[Mark Caputo]

I mean, he's delivering on by and large on what he said. Now that having been said, I do understand that the civil libertarian argument that, you know, a court order is a court order and you shouldn't violate it even if you disagree.

[Ryan Gradusky]

I'm not, yeah, I'm not.

[Mark Caputo]

Right.

[Ryan Gradusky]

I'm not making, I'm not giving work, I'm Just saying. I'm saying, as far as promises to voters go, I think on immigration is probably one of the biggest runaway successes. Inflation has certainly gone down, despite what. I mean, if you look at the media, there's bread lines out everyone's door. Now let's go to tariffs. Tariffs are.

[Mark Caputo]

Tariffs are a problem.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Tariffs are what I don't understand Mark. And you are you. I pay attention to the news and. But you write the news, so maybe you understand. If you listen to Peter Navarro, if you listen to the Secretary of Commerce, if you look at the Secretary of Treasury, they all have different reasons of why we're doing these tariffs. They all have different end goals for why we're doing these tariffs. Okay? So if you listen to. And maybe I'm wrong, so correct me wrong, according to the Peter Navarro story is we're going to basically end neoliberalism as we know it and change the way we do international economics and become mertigreal.

[Mark Caputo]

Mercantile.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Mercantile. Yeah, Mercantile. Mercantile nation. In. In one way or the other. If you listen to Bessette, the Secretary of the treasury, it's to end all these opposing tariffs on us. We'll have real free trade. Except for China. China's its own thing. And then if you listen to the Commerce Secretary, it's. It's somewhere in between. But his own kind of thing that he's doing on his own. Why hasn't the administration seemed to have one single narrative for the last three weeks?

[Mark Caputo]

I touched on this to plug my own story in Axios in a story called Trump's Tariff Brain. Inside Trump's Tariff Brain. The answer is all of the above. Donald Trump wants to do lots of things with tariffs. And. And if you understand that Donald Trump has been talking about other countries have ripped us off for years. He first gave this in a speech in 1987, 38 years ago. Oh, boy. Now I feel real old. So he gave the speech in 1987 talking about other nations are ripping us off. He didn't quite say tariffs, but that's what he's talking about. Negotiating better trade deals, understanding that. That look at Trump as a guy who is often, or more often directionally right than his critics give him credit for. Okay, so it's very kind of a very specific phrase I'm using there. And if you understand, like the direction he wants to go, he wants to go in the direction of more manufacturing. He wants to go in the direction of a different trade deficit, a more balanced trade deficit with other nations. He wants to go in the direction of. Of Having government revenue from this in part to pay for the tax cuts, so to speak. Pay for that. He wants to extend, he wants to have more manufacturing in the country. Those are all things he wants to do. So all of those guys who are out there speaking are sort of different avatars of him. And the reality is Donald Trump hasn't made up his mind. And Donald Trump has last guy in the room syndrome as well. So he frequently falls victim to analysis paralysis because he surrounds himself. And this is perhaps to his credit. It certainly is to credit if you believe in like open minded epistemology, like acquiring information that is he gets everyone's opinion in the room. The thing is he doesn't know when to stop, right? Or it takes a while for him to kind of arrive at it. So that's one. And then there's the last guy in the room syndrome. So he's got all these different advisors who have these different faces of sort of the tariff and what they could do. And he likes all of them. So I don't know this for a fact, but generally I can totally see it where Howard Letnick is in there like, hey, here's what we got to do. And like, oh yeah, great, go out there and he says it and then that's true. And then Bessant's in there like, hey, here's what we got to do like, oh great, you go out there and you do that. And this is what we're seeing for those of us who are accustomed to Donald Trump and the sort of, you know, are able to understand that there's always going to be a lot of noise and you just have to focus on the directional signal. It makes a lot more sense. The thing is, is the stock market doesn't work that way. Right. He's approaching this like a political campaign where he's never quite clear, he likes to have leverage. It's all the sort of now you see me, now you don't stuff. It's asymmetry. Very good at that, that stock market hates that. And so here we are.

[Ryan Gradusky]

What I don't understand is, and I sent a message, someone I knew in the White House and I said this, if reshoring manufacturing is your main goal and, and it's important, it's an important effort that we should be undertaking as a country. But if it is your main goal, there are, there is a lot of different hammers to use to nail that, to nail that into the wall. And I mentioned this on this podcast I wrote about this federal, like federal contracts to make sure. Federal contracts are focused on reshoring like pharmaceuticals or military equipment or whatever. That part hasn't happened. Like there's never, they're not, it's not a full, you know, full court press on to faces on every front. It seems like it's just tariffs and that makes it confusing and people worrisome and also allowing people who have, have stocks and in part in companies are way overvalued to sit there and deplete their stocks and to sell them and to make sure that, you know, blame the terrorists for it instead of some.

[Podcast Host]

Crappy companies that are, well, have too.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Much money on their hands and whatever that's, that's. Or whether their stocks overvalued. I shouldn't say too much money on their hands, but their stocks are overvalued. That is all happening and he's allowing himself to do it and it just seems like it's a mess. And I saw that he wants to reduce tariffs in China.

[Podcast Host]

Where is he right now?

[Ryan Gradusky]

Do we have tariffs on any country? Is there, Is there, Is there?

[Mark Caputo]

We have the Ted across the board tariffs.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Yeah.

[Mark Caputo]

That we do have and technically we have 145% tariff on goods from China, which is effectively, as one of the folks in his economic team has pointed out to me, this is not tariffs really we're talking about right now. This is a trade embargo. Wall Street Journal had an interesting story with an anecdote as their lead. Like there was this. I didn't realize that people import, that we import eyelashes. And there's like China sends us eyelashes now, God knows where they came from. But, you know, someone spoke against President Xi and is now, you know, an eyelash donor or whatever. But there's this truck of eyelashes that's like stuck at the Mexico border. Like we are in effectively for a lot of these goods. A trade embargo, like zero trade. I had reported the other day on Tuesday that when Donald Trump met Monday with the heads of Walmart, Home Depot and Target, that what they privately told him was, hey, we're looking at some empty shelves in as early as two weeks. So there are these different messages. They're getting to us and he is sort of reacting to it. But generally speaking here I'm sort of scooping myself. One of the people I'd spoken to who had spoken to Trump with some regularity when the stock market was doing all this stuff, I asked him like, well, what's the president's mindset? They're like, oh, he's having a great time I said, yeah. And I said, yeah. He just keeps talking about the deals they're going to do. He's like, Japan's coming in and Vietnam's coming in. You wouldn't believe what's going to happen with South Korea. So he's sort of on cloud nine. And, and the portrayal. There's a little bit of a disconnect between what a lot of people are seeing and certainly those people who have money in the stock market. But his general sense right now is still, again, directionally this way. And we're in this, this is Trump's world and we're all living in it right now where he's going to be kind of fine tuning and real time testing this stuff. But I think there's a long roundabout answer to. I think it was a question you posed, which is this wasn't necessarily very well thought out in the implementation. And I think this is an old man in a hurry. He's wanted to do this since 1987, at least. Okay. He is now president for his second and final term. And let's ignore Steve Mannon saying he's going to get third term.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Yeah.

[Mark Caputo]

You know, he's almost 80 years old, so he wants to do this stuff now. And let's face it, when I said he was more often directionally right than his critics give him credit for. He's the only guy who's really come out and made free trade an issue and said, hey, a lot of the free trade has been bad, has hollowed out our manufacturing sector. You really didn't hear that in the Republican Party before2015. Right. You just didn't. And, and he's the guy. Right? Yeah, good point. Yeah. There's a great political.

[Ryan Gradusky]

But since 1996 and Buchanan ran, it's been though 20 or 16 to 20. 1996 to 2016 was 20 years. Yeah.

[Mark Caputo]

And he is the only guy, the only president who's like, okay, fuck it. You're talking about, you know, the problem of the hammer where everything looks like a nail. I mean, he just hit the glass. So we're there now, whether it's going to work or not. It is a big experiment and it is kind of a shock to the system. But the reality is he is the only president who's really given voice to this problem and the only president who's really tried to solve it. The question is, is his solution, is the cure worse than the sickness? Because one of the things his advisors have said and sorry I'm yammering on, I'll get this out, is that they view the American economy as a sick patient and it is in bad need of medicine. And I, in one of my conversations with one of these people said, well, yeah, that's true, but if you have cancer, they give you chemo very often. And chemotherapy is basically poison that boils down to this. You either are going to kill the cancer or kill yourself. And so you have to be careful administering the medicine of the poison in chemotherapy therapy. And what I wonder here is, did Trump just come in and just inject a whole bunch of, I don't know, rat poison or whatever into this? And we're going to see. Or maybe not.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, I mean, I mean, and you have some headlines of some companies announcing they're reassuring jobs in America. There's a lot to live on for those headlines to last. Two questions. One, what is this? What does this do for Republicans looking at 2026? How nervous?

[Mark Caputo]

Looking top. I have not been talking to Republicans much, but, man, in our elections, our elections generally break on the fault line of a division of desire and terror, right? And anger and love. There's not a lot of love out there, so let's just throw that out. So the gasoline that powers the engines of our elections is anger. And the left is angry. They're out there protesting Tesla. So I see more energy and I understand, with respect to St. Paul, that I see through a glass darkly that I don't understand the entire picture and don't know the whole nation. But the energy looks like it's on the left. When you look at the fact that the stock market is not doing so well, the dollar is deflating, it's devaluing. The IMF is cutting growth rate forecasts for the United States. Home sales are starting to decline. And Donald Trump, through implementing these tariffs in such a way, made this his economy. It's really going to be difficult for him to sit around and blame Biden.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Although Republicans have killed, have, well, blew past expectations on fundraising numbers and there was good economic indicators before Liberation Day. But, I mean, we'll see.

[Mark Caputo]

I mean, the market, the market really wants, the market is almost like, you know, an abused person who just wants a little bit of good news. Like, literally, when Donald Trump gives a little bit of good news, it's like. And the, the market shoots back up and then it comes back down. So I don't know how long that's gonna last. But there is still some sort of pent up goodwill in the market where if there is a more. I think if there is a more Cohesive, intelligible, predictable, reliable presentation of where we're going to go and how we're going to get there. That if you were to ask me this question of how Republicans are feeling, my answer might change. But right now, I think things favor Democrats more.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Yeah. Well, okay. In terms of prom. My last question, in terms of promises to his voters, things he campaigned on and what he's achieved, how would you grade Trump's first 100 days? Not solely on the success or how it's looking, but what he promised and then what he's been delivered.

[Mark Caputo]

I mean, from all the supporters I know of his and the people who didn't vote for him, who support him, they're very happy because as they pointed out, there's a possibility that a majority or a plurality of his voters aren't real stock market people. So I don't really give a shit about a lot of stuff I just talked about there. They voted for him because of immigration and attitude. Yeah.

[Ryan Gradusky]

18 to 21 year olds.

[Mark Caputo]

What's that?

[Ryan Gradusky]

Trump's best demographic in the latest Yale poll is 18 to 21 year olds. The Harvard David Shore found two.

[Mark Caputo]

That's the Harvard poll that John Della Volpe had released, showed that he was hemorrhaging support of younger people for what's.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Worse, that was the Harvard Harris poll.

[Mark Caputo]

I think so. I know it's hard. I don't know if it's Harvard Harris. Yeah.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Harvard Harris pulls our.

[Podcast Host]

Terrible, terrible.

[Ryan Gradusky]

And I'm just gonna tell you, like. But no, no, I take. Pollsters ignore Harvard Harris is a joke of a bolster. Just my own personal opinion. I never listen to them. But the Yale poll I think is, but they are, they're a jokeable. So they do a terrible job each and every time. The Yale poll is decent.

[Podcast Host]

The Pew Pro poll is very good.

[Ryan Gradusky]

It's very thorough. But it's, I mean, it's terrible for Trump. It was his worst poll by far, the NBC, NBC Post poll. That was good. The Washington Post poll was decent. So he's had some decent ones. I think that not enough time is.

[Podcast Host]

Settled to really see what the tariff.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Situation is looking like. But the problem we have with Trump as far as, as far as, like what Democrats have with Trump is there's such little elasticity. Like he's never going to get to Joe Biden or George W. Bush numbers into the 20s because he can't, because his base that loves him is so fervently committed. And the.

[Mark Caputo]

It's got like a 35% floor, basically.

[Ryan Gradusky]

It's like yes, in the mid-30s percent floor and the ceiling is 52% and we just live in that 15% range. Wherever we go, he'll never be, never have Joe Biden positive numbers, he'll never have Joe Biden negative numbers, he'll never have Bush positive numbers, never have Bush negative numbers. And so we live in this world where he's just kind of stuck and everyone has a strong opinion of him. But the fact that 18 to 21 year olds in both the David Shore data on the election and then the NBC and then the Yale poll is pretty wild. And it might be because one, they don't have stocks and two, because it's, you know, I like the attitude.

[Mark Caputo]

Oh yeah, I think it's a big part of it. I don't think the left has really helped its case, especially among young men, that that horse has been beaten and kicked to death. The other issue I think that Republicans need to think about, which you saw play out in Wisconsin, is that the Trump machine without Trump is not much of a machine. Like he activates certain voters. Right.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, seniors are increasingly becoming Democratic as baby boomers. I keep telling everyone, they're like, what happened to seniors? Because the seniors live in your head have died. Like, you're not willing to admit that, but you're thinking of your grandparents who aren't alive anymore and you're not understanding. Like, Archie Bunker is not the senior citizen. He's dead. Meathead is the senior citizen. Jane Fonda is the senior citizen. Like these are the senior citizen. Rosie O'Donnell is a senior citizen meathead. No, but those are, but those are senior citizens now. They are not greatest generation or Joe Biden's generation. I mean there are a few of those left people left, but not many. They're overwhelmingly the counterculture general.

[Mark Caputo]

Yeah, well, as a Florida based guy, we experienced that quite clearly. We used to have, especially in south Florida, southeast Florida, what we would call the condo commandos. These are these older FDR voters who were just reliably blue and it's what kept Florida blue at first and then with the wave of more Republicans, what kept it purple. Now we're just importing Republican super voters.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I really, we have to go. But I want to really quick story. My grandfather grew up in Lower east side of Manhattan and Brooklyn his whole life. Almost all of his friends were Jewish and those typical New York liberal Democratic Jewish. Like almost like a cartoon of what a Jewish voter from New York's politics are like. And I remember the Bloomberg election05 it.

[Podcast Host]

Was my first election.

[Ryan Gradusky]

I could vote in or something. And I said. I was like, oh, yeah, I'm voting for Bloomberg on, you know, as a Republican. And his friend said, oh, I voted for Bloomberg as a Democrat. And I said, no, you didn't. You voted, no, he's not a Democrat.

[Podcast Host]

He's a Republican.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Literally 20 minutes screaming over the dining room table at this man. He's like, I never voted for a Republican in my life. I wouldn't vote. I voted for him as a Democrat. I'm like, he would not admit to his own self that it was possible he could vote for a Republican. So, yeah, I know those voters very well, but most of them have sons, you know, gone to their great rest. So. So that is the eternal rest. So that is what. That's what people do. Mark, thank you so much. We're gonna end it down. Mark, thank you for being on this podcast.

[Mark Caputo]

Yes. Yes, sir. It's great seeing you.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Where can people go to read your stuff?

[Mark Caputo]

Axios.com and I'm on Twitter at Mark A. Caputo. It's Mark with a C. Mark Antonio. Mark. Mark. Antonio is technically my first name.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Okay.

[Mark Caputo]

One word, you know.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, thank you so much, Mark.

[Mark Caputo]

Mark.

[Ryan Gradusky]

I'll speak to you soon.

[Mark Caputo]

Appreciate you, man.

[Podcast Host]

You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski.

[Ryan Gradusky]

We'll be right back.

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[Ryan Gradusky]

This is the.

[Podcast Host]

Ask me anything segment of the podcast where you guys can send me any kinds of questions you want and I'm depending on those questions. Send them my way and let me I'll tell you if I can find out any information and give you the data behind what you're worried about, you could email me at ryan numbers game podcast.com numbers is plural Ryan numbers game podcast.com? this week. Do we think that AOC will be the Democratic nominee in 2028, I don't know. Is the simple short of it. No one knows. I will say two things. One, she's raising a lot of money and she has her face in the media. And that's what a lot of people assume is the answer is who they've seen the most. That's why Gavin Newsom's face is always in the media. People assume it means he must be the nominee. What you need to look at though, and what a smart analysis of elections look like is where is the primary process going to begin in 2028 if it begins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Ryan Gradusky]

As it had for, you know, a.

[Podcast Host]

Hundred years, they are more open to more progressive candidates. They help Barack Obama, they help Bernie Sanders, those kinds of states. If the election begins in South Carolina, that is a much more different electorate. It's black primarily, but it's majority black in the Democratic primary and it is much more conservative, both socially and economically. They are not down hardcore progressive voters. So if the party primary starts in the deep south and especially in South Carolina, it's a primary process looking to try to nominate a moderate. And that's what we'll probably see anyway. We're three years away, so we'll find out then. Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Wherever you listen to your podcast, give me a five star review if you feel generous.

[Podcast Host]

Thank you so much. Listen on Thursday and see you later this week.

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