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This is an iHeart podcast. Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Today is Thursday, October 9, 2025. It is 25 days till the 2025 election. Local elections across the country. Make a plan and get out and vote. Vote by mail, vote early in person or vote on election day. Make a plan just and make sure you vote. Local elections matter. Everything from school board to governor is up in different places across the country. So find out what's on the ballot in your area. Go to the Secretary of State website or your local county website and figure it out and make the game plan. It is really important to have informed active voters. Okay, I know that this podcast has been very heavy on campaigns lately. You know, I come from a campaign background. I'm sure a lot of other people are kind of getting sick of it and it gets grading after a while. Not everyone is like me who lives in, eats and breathes campaigns. So I think next Thursday I'm going to do a PO Politics free episode where I will do another issue. I don't know what it is yet, I'll know, I'll know it by Monday, but maybe I'll just do book reviews or something about true crime or something. I'm interested in something that is not related to campaign specific. I will give my listener a one day break before we go full on into the election. And if you have a topic by the way, that you want me to research and cover, please email me ryan numbers game podcast.com and throw what you like to hear about this non political episode. I'm really leaving it up to the audience and letting them decide what I talk about. I think this would be really interesting and a nice break from people who just want to take a breather between all the conversations about the elections coming up. So for today's episode I have a little bit of interesting data coming up with the campaigns and the elections in our important states. We're not just important, but the ones that are the most high profile as well as some non political stuff related to birth data that I think you'd find really interesting. So first let's go on the campaigns because we're already talking about it. I heard from a good friend of mine who is on a statewide race in Virginia that internal polls have Republican incumbent Attorney General Jason Miares in a statistical tie with Democrat James Jo Jay Jones. Now Jay Jones once again is the Democrat who made the comment he wants to see his colleagues being shot in the head and and and having or he would shoot them in the Head rather and that he wants to see their children being murdered. This poll was taken on the cusp of those comments. So since those comments, I imagine he's going to see a two or three point bump and we could very well see Miares in the mix as far as leading in the polls. Donald Trump just recently endorsed him. Now, early voting continues to climb in that state as well as all their states. Virginia has 45 days of early voting, which in my opinion is too much. 400,000 people so far have voted. Election analysis experts estimate that about 52% of registered Virginians should be expected to vote in this election. That's down from 55% in 2021 overall. That means if that's true, that means that between 3.1 to 3.2 million people will be expected to show up. That means that 12.5% or 1 in 8 voters already have cast their ballot lot up for grabs. But what MIAR is and what the Republicans running in, in both Lieutenant Governor and Governor and all across the state, as far as state legislatures wanted to go, what they would should be trying to do right now is not only convince moderates and independents to cast ballots for them, but there are a hundreds of thousands of people who are low propensity voters who don't show up in every election and convincing them to show up in this election. Remember, Donald Trump received 2.075 million votes in 2024 and Glenn Youngkin received 1.66 million. That's a difference of 410,000 people who vote Republican when it's convenient for president or when they excite for president but don't tend to show up in these elections, these local elections. 410,000 people is a lot. It's make or break. So really increasing attention towards these races in the last few days may make the difference between winning and losing. Miarez has a lot going for him right now. There is a reporter named Nick Minick. He is a reporter for WJLA over in Washington. A pretty nonpartisan guy from everything I've ever seen from him. And he says that Jay Jones is in crisis mode in that election. He said he's on the phone with Democrat elected officials asking them not to drop their support for him. The Fraternal Order of Virginia Police came out with a letter over the week saying that he was unfit to hold for office and he was. Jay Jones was forced to cancel two fundraisers, including one with Senator Tim King because he was afraid of being asked questions about his comments and his text messages. This all Comes, by the way, as the embattled Democrat is facing another controversy. The Republican who he was texting with came out and said that Jones had told her that he that he believed some police needed to die in order to stop them from killing people. He allegedly made these comments in 2020 at the height of the Floyd riots. I would love to see what Jay Jones had to sit there and text the day Charlie Kirk was assassinated. That would probably be very eye opening. Jason Miar is the Republican incumbent. His campaign is dropping an unbelievable $1.5 million in the closing weeks on a commercial and about the text messages that Jones sent. The Club for Growth, which is a major Republican, has a major Republican pack and millions upon millions of dollars in their arsenal. They are also unveiling a brutal new ad with tagging that Jones is dressed up in a suit but should be in a straight jacket. I am unaware how much money they're putting behind it, but the club really doesn't do anything in small doses. They're kind of a major. They, you know, a lot of, a lot of firepower in their cannon. So I imagine if they're doing an ad and they're taking out such a brutal ad that they are going to be spending a lot of money getting it out there. Republicans, it's very clear that they think Jason has, Jason Mears has the chance to pull out an election victory and he might be the only one statewide in Virginia who can. But it is something that they are all doubling and tripling down on from Donald Trump to the Club for Growth to his own internal campaign. And Jay Jones is absolutely got, is on his back heels. We'll see how that shakes up in the last 25 days till the election. But it's very clear where the energy is moving and if we'll probably get a public poll, I imagine soon. Washington Post usually only releases one poll before the election and they adjusted it before the scandal broke. Maybe they'll do a second one. Remember, polls are very, very expensive. So I don't know, maybe I'll sit there. It's too much news not to do it, you would think. But we'll hopefully get maybe some public polls next week about where the state of the Virginia elections are and if anything changed with Jay Jones's text messages. I genuinely hope for the sake of our country that they did and that someone who fantasizes about killing children does not hold elected office in this country. Okay, now I want to focus on New Jersey for a second. Republican Jack Ciarelli picked up some important endorsements from two Democrats in Hudson County, Jersey. And they are local elected officials in Hudson County. It's also rumored that by the New Jersey Globe that the chairman of the Hudson County Democratic Party is preparing to endorse Chittarelli. This is a pretty big surprise. Hudson county is a plurality Hispanic county that has voted for Democrat in every presidential election since 1984 and where Jack Chiarelli only received 25 of the vote last time. Well, obviously it's. That wouldn't that would give permission for Democrats to support basically any Democrat because it's such a Democratic area. They're not going to be held accountable by voters in such a blue area. But like most places with large Hispanic populations, it saw a right wing shift. The district was 8 points right from 2017 to 2021 in the governor's election and 16 points the right between 2020 and 2024. Trump received twice as many votes that in 2024 as Jack Torelli did in 2021. Who knows if these people are going to be stay Republican or if they're going to be animated to vote in a governor's election. That's not a presidential election if they're all just low propensity voters. There's a lot of, a lot of this comes out of internal party politics of who hates who and who doesn't like the Democrat Mickey Sheryl and who doesn't like who supported her. The part of this is elected Democrats feeling the ability to be more, for lack of a better term, liberal in their decision making when it comes to who to pick from. Because normally you would say, oh, I'm gonna lose everything if I endorse the Republican. They're probably only doing this if they feel like the Republican might win. Now, it's still solid Democratic county in a state that leans Democratic but party. But the party has some reason to be concerned. There are internal polls showing that Mikey Sheryl is with only three point lead against Jack Chitterelli. This is from a new report from Axios the what's interesting about that is that Democratic commentators have been saying publicly, don't worry, we are fine. We have these Fox News polls that are showing that Mikey Sheryl's up by eight points. It's still New Jersey. New Jersey still a blue state. Quietly, they've been dumping $25 million into this race from PAX to try to sit there and brand that Jack Chiarelli is just like Trump. So if you hate Trump, you have to vote against Jack Chiarelli. Democrats have been saying this is not a five alarm Fire. But it's clearly not a cakewalk. It's somewhere in between. And Democrats still hold an election turnout advantage. So far, new voter turnout has had a Democrat advantage of 75, 000. They're all mail in votes because the early in person voting has not yet begun in New Jersey. So that should tighten. But Democrats are really trying to build this massive early vote lead from mail in ballads in case they get swamped on election day. Republicans are returning ballads at a slightly larger pace than they were in 2020, but a lot of people are. There's more Democrats asking for these ballots. In 2021, 160000 people requested ballots. In 2025, about 200000 people have requested ballots. And Democrats just hold a larger lead in the physical number of ballots they have returned. They're really animated to get these lower propensity people to vote by mail. And Republicans are still skittish about voting by mail. So Democrats are looking to take advantage where they have the opportunity. Basically using Repub on mail in ballots that get as many older people or low propensity people to sit there and show up. The same thing is happening, by the way, in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is not a race that a lot of people are covering, but is a Supreme Court race. This will matter heavily when Pennsylvania Supreme Court is a majority Democrat. It's a. Is it a statewide elected position? This will matter intensely when they go into the 2032 redistricting map because the Democrat Pennsylvania Supreme Court is not going to map that favors a Republican. Even if, you know, we have a Republican governor and Republican legislature, they're not going to go with any map that overly favors Republicans. And Pennsylvania is slated to lose one congressional seat next year. So there's a lot on the line right now. Democrats have requested 631,000, while Republicans have only requested 235,000. Pennsylvania has no early voting aside from mail and balloting, so this is intensely important. Democrats like to build this idea. There's this firewall that they have built from early ballot voting. Because here's the thing about people who only wait till election day. If you are a person who's never missed an election, you're probably not going to miss this election. Now if you're the average Joe Schmo who, you know, cares, they maybe listen to, you know, conservative talk radio, but they're busy. They got kids, they have a job, they have a social life. They sleep in that day. They have to cook dinner. It's raining outside. They don't feel like doing it the weather's bad or what everyone makes excuses of why they can and cannot show up on election day. And for people who've only voted in one of the four or zero of the four last elections or even two of the last four elections, it is intensely important to try to get those people out early because those are the ones who always make excuses. You know these kinds of people in your life. I have them. You know those people who will be like, oh, I'm going to cook for a fourth of July, I'm going to come over and bring over all the hamburgers and then they're an hour and a half late like that and they only have like three buns. That is the kind of person who you need to sit there and make sure that they show up to vote because if there's an excuse why they can't show why they can be late, they're going to find the excuse. We all have that people in our life. Someone listens, podcast, maybe you are that person. In that case, figure out a plan to go vote early. I'm just going to touch on one other race. So Pennsylvania rounding up Democrats definitely have been building up this lead. It's not as large as it was the last time they had a Supreme Court race which was another odd year, but it is much larger percentage wise than during the presidential election when Trump where Republicans really did start two Republicans credit in the 2024 election. Republicans in Pennsylvania especially at the end really ramped up mail in voting. They were turning those suckers in at a very, very fast rate. Last race I want to just touch on because I want ones that you guys could be updated and that is the New York City mayor's race. Socialist Zoram Mandani is still has a healthy double digit lead about like 12 or 13% in most private and public polling I've seen. He's not going to hit 50%. But there is this conflict is that Curtis Lewa, who's the Republican nominee, someone I've met many times over the years, doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning. His advisors are telling him that he does. Andrew Cuomo is running one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen in my life where he should be reaching out to Republicans in New York and he's not doing any of that. He should be talking to Republicans in New York. Remember, I was once a moderate governor and I will govern for all New Yorkers, whether you are Republican or not. I don't know if it's his Advisors. I don't know if Cuomo just really doesn't care about Republicans. I actually found out, wait, this is the most interesting thing. I have a friend who is, I mean, this is a fire breathing Republican, someone younger than me, and randomly brings up that he is, you know, Andrew Cuomo's first cousin. I was like, what? I was like, how are you related to this person? I mean, I guess that's all true in all families, but I don't, he can't have this absolute hatred, I think, for Republicans, you know, considering that family members close to him are, you know, are Republican, clearly. I just think that he is trying to appease the most whacked out parts of the base. And he's the same guy who said, if you are pro life, you don't belong in New York State. So enough of those comments have, I think, really caught up to him. And this is the time where he should be saying to Republicans, to Republican Party bosses, to Republican Party voters, hey, if you support me, I will, I will. The Democrats and the, my, the unions that he essentially has a lot of sway with and would, if he was the mayor, support all the Republican incumbents in New York City for City Council and for state assembly and for state Senate. That's a lot that would do so much for Republicans if he just even gave that little breadcrumb. But I don't know what he's doing. I think this is one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen in my life. And Curtis Lewa should have dropped out a long time ago. Okay, that's my political roundup for this episode. I will cover politics probably on Monday, especially if the Supreme Court decides on Section 280 of the Voting Rights Act. I'll give you probably a brief update about it and then Thursday we'll do a non political episode. I have a non political issue that I want to bring up on this episode and it is about birth data trends and I think it's fascinating and you will too. So stay tuned. Next. So the CDC is the official authority on data relating to births and deaths. The census usually puts out its own estimates. And the media loves to talk about the census estimates. But the census estimates are not the ones the government uses. It's the CDC and CDC Wonder, which is their website. They have a preliminary monthly numbers before the final estimation is given out. The final estimation comes out usually 18 months after the year's over because they do all the calculations and we wait for the official estimate, obviously official number, and that will be released for 2025, sometime like 20, late 2026 or early 2027. On October 1st they put out their estimates for the year of 2025 from January to August. And there's some interesting data that tells a bigger story about our country and where we're going. First, let's look at the top line numbers. From January to August 2025, there were a little less than 2.4 million babies born in this country. That's down about a half a percentage point from the year prior to. And they don't break down babies born by the race of the child, they break it down by the race of the mother. 49.76 of all babies born from the from January to August were of had white mothers. 26.77 had Hispanic mothers. 12.6 had black mothers. 6% had Asian mothers and the rest were either a multiracial American Indian, Pacific Islander or other. The decline in fertility rates in the birth rates in the last during this year is not equal among all racial groups. Specifically, two groups have seen a noticeable drop in fertility, one being non Hispanic blacks and the second being foreigners. People whose women born in another country. Specifically women from high populations of illegal immigrants. So cities. So women who come from countries with large illegal alien populations in the United States States. Let's start with the non Hispanic black number. It is a strange phenomenon that happened sometime in the mid to late 2000s and it's that black, the black birth rate has been just steadily declining to the point of collapsing in some parts of this country. The black female birth rate in 2024 for the first time in a very long time was actually lower than whites. And at the rate that it's declining this year, 2025 will have a larger in the white fertility rate, the non Hispanic white fertility rate versus the black fertility rate. This has started, this general decline has started for a bit of time. It started in the 90s when there was a real effort presented by both the federal government as well as the local and state to one do welfare reform and the second really to stop to provide basically protection. So there was less teen births. The teen birth rate from the 1990s has, it's gone down like well over 95, 98% of teen birth team births just don't happen, not nearly like they used to. But the birth rate for non Hispanic black women remained around the same from the late 90s into the late 2000s and then just nose dived and it's fallen 3.6% this year alone. Now a lot of conservative commentators immediately bring up Abortion, they say, oh, access to abortions. What kills which, what's killing black babies in the womb. That is partially true. But states with very strict abortion laws, even abortion bans, don't have a significantly higher black fertility rate, with states with very little to no abortion bans. So states like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida, they're. They all have very strict abortion laws. They have a birth rate well below replacement and pretty much equal to places like Colorado, Delaware, Ohio and Michigan. There's not been a single sociological examination of that this is happening. I, I doubt that even sociologists haven't realized how much this is happening. I guarantee you a lot of other people aren't even talking about this right now. But around the 2010s, there was a dramatic increase in the number of black women attending college. Remember, when women attend college, especially in a master's degree or a PhD program, they put child rearing well into their late 30s or early 40s or just give up on it altogether. And they have fewer children than they would have had if they didn't pursue a doctorate or masters. There was about 11% of Black women had a bachelor's degree in 1990. That was up to 26 in 2023. So college is part of it, as well as the declining number of teen pregnancies. And then a third part of it is the cost of living. States like New York, New Jersey, California, Connecticut, they have a fertility level of black women that is heading towards about one child per woman, which is that means the population will have over the course of the next 20 to 25 years as older generations pass away and younger generations are significantly smaller. This is the problem you're seeing, like in Japan and in South Korea and in Italy and Poland, is that the generations are literally half of what they were just 20 years ago, and they're incredibly continuing to decline because people are not having enough babies. What that sits there and says to me, specifically, given that these birth rates come out of big blue states where the populations are not having a lot of children, is, is that you're going to see Democrats increasingly dependent on immigrants to make up the declining population in the states from the Americans who are not. Not having children today. Right. And I want to go over the whole idea of policies affecting children in one second. But before I do, I want to bring up the illegal aliens for a second. Not illegal aliens, all aliens. Foreigners who are having children. The number of foreigners giving birth in America skyrocketed during Biden's administration, which would make sense because he had an open border. And they know, hey, citizenship, if I just give birth to a baby during this time period, 2025 looks like as of right now, that the number of births by foreigners is down about 1.7% across the board. That's not even among people of every single country. President Biden, if you remember in his last year of his administration, did something called the CHNV parole program where he was, he was so nervous with the optics of people flooding the border that he was flying people into this country if they came from four specific countries where there was large populations of people trying to cross the border. Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Currently, birth rates for Cubans, Haitians and Venezuelan Venezuelans are up 12% this year versus last year. Because even though Trump has ended the program, they're clearly very well aware that if they have children now, they'll have a case to sit there and try to get some kind of amnesty. They'll have a foothold for citizenship. They are very, very well aware of that. And I think that's part of it. The other group that is still having a lot more kids than they used to are Afghanistan Afghans, because they are, I mean, a lot more refugees live in this country now too. Their birth rate numbers are up significantly. So those are the people who are increasing. Who's declining as far as foreign women having children in America who are there for them, becoming American citizens. Women from Mexico, their birth rates down 4.6%. El Salvador is down 13%. Remember, under President Bukele, El Salvador is a very safe country now and he's doing all these economic reforms to try to get the economy going and the standard of living. You can get more bang for your buck down there. A lot of El Salvadorians are, it looks like, starting to move back to El Salvador or considering it as Trump has cracked down on illegal immigration. And there's job opportunity and safe streets in El Salvador. The number of illegal alien people from El Salvador even trying to illegally immigrate to this country is declining and was declining even going back to Biden's last year because El Salvador was becoming so safe. El Salvadorians are down 13%, Hondurans are down 6%, Chinese are down 5% and Nigerians are down 10%. Populations with large illegal alien groups in this country who are fearing deportation or are self deporting or are physically being deported, you're seeing declining birth rates among those populations. So I find that all very, very interesting how those numbers are being, how public policy is reflecting in birth numbers going forward. Lastly, there's a Big significant split based on politics and religion and child rearing. Most fertile counties in our country with a population of over 100,000 people, all voted for Trump, every one of them. The top 50 all voted for Trump unanimously. The bottom 50, the ones who have the fewest children of counties with a hundred thousand people or less, all voted for Carmel, I think, except for one. That is a stark difference in priorities, in policy and in, in, in just view of your way of life, you, in what you want to do. Listen, we don't live in America in 2025. Children are not an economic asset the way that they were a hundred years ago, right? Your child is not going to be farm, a farmhand or work in a factory and bring home their paycheck. Kids cost a lot of money. They're a big sacrifice. And unless you are motivated by a calling to have children or religion or something like that, or, or the idea that strong families build strong countries, a lot of conservative ideas, there's nothing driving you to have children. And that is why we're seeing birth rates among progressives and in progressive areas just nosedive across the board. So far in 2025, this is according to CDC wonder, 61% of all births that have happened in this country happened in states that Donald Trump won. Now remember, Trump got 49 of the vote, but 61 of, of all the birds are happening in Trump states. That's a tremendous difference when you, especially when you consider that states like Illinois and New York and Maryland and Connecticut and New Jersey and California and Washington, those are big states. Colorado's not a small state. Colorado is not, you know, North Dakota. This is a lot of people just flat out saying, this is not for me. I'm not going to either have kids or maybe I'll have one if that. And it's going to be a problem in the future as you have two parties that have very different conceptions of how to prioritize and invest in things, right? A lot of times in the last decade, the two leading politicians that fought for increased tax breaks for families were Mike Lee and Marco Rubio, because one represented a lot of Hispanics that have not a crazy high fertility rate anymore, but higher than an average. And the other was Mormons. And there's a lot of Mormons with big families. Their politics, their they, what they prioritize was starkly different than what a lot of Democrats prioritized. And which party is inclined to care about issues like that will matter immensely as states. You'll have states with lots of children or with Just children, even if it's two per couple. And you will have states with less than one per couple. And that will bring out two different countries in a, in a, in a different way. Pew researched a study just a few days ago, and they asked, are you concerned about the declining birth rates? A majority of Americans for the first time said yes, that they think it's negative and they are worried. But even then, there was a partisan break. 63% of Republicans said yes, 44% of Democrats said yes. And the most concerned group about declining birth rates and declining families were young Republican men, the least concerned, young Democratic women. It is a very, very, very big question. And as states hollow out in the next decade, in the next two decades because of declining birth rates, Democrats are going to be increasingly dependent on illegal and legal immigration. As voters leave their state because of failed economic policies, because of high taxes, because of, you know, declining quality of life. Illegal immigrants and legal immigrants will fill that void even though they have failed American people. They will look for foreigners to fill the void of Americans who either gave up on children or gave up on their state. This is why reducing immigration, both legal and illegal, is so utterly important. If we continue at the rate we are at and we just import people, California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, these failed blue state experiments, their politicians, who should be losing congressional seats at a faster than they are, will not suffer those ramifications so long as we have mass immigration. The electoral college vote will not shrink as it should because of mass immigration. Does come down to that over and over and over again. And I think the birth data really does sit there and extrapolate to a larger question of who we are, our priorities, what we value, our values as a country. And I think you're going to have a bigger going forward. You will have a bigger split on the idea of investing in families. All right now, time for Ask Me Anything. Stay tuned. Now it's time for the Ask me anything segment. If you want to be part of the ask me anything segment, re email me ryan@NumbersGame podcast.com Send me a question. I read them all. Anyone I don't get to on air, I send a private email to. And I appreciate all my listeners who make this show happen. So this one comes from Ryan or day he wants to know how did Democrats hold the Kentucky governor election? Sorry, Win the election for Kentucky's governorship even though the state has moved, moved significantly towards Republicans both federally and in voter registration. That is a great question, Robert. So Democrats, this is in the, this is in the most recent election, Democrats have had the governor's mansion for most of the last hundred years. Republicans have only controlled the governorship of Kentucky for 12 years, since 1947. 2015. Matt Bevin won. Republican Matt Bevin won a significant victory for Republicans. He won by nine points in a state that doesn't elect Repub. Only to lose it by half a percentage points to andy Beshear in 2019. Now Andy Beshear is also floating that he's going to run for president. So what happened? First, Evan was one of the least popular governors going into reelection in 2023. He had a 32% favorability rating and he even had a 40% disapproval rating with Republicans going into Election Day. Remember, Kentucky has a lot of working class Republicans, a lot of people who were in unions, a lot of people who are on welfare and depend on food stamps, and a lot of them who were recently Democrats. And they still hold a lot of Democratic issues on fiscal policy. So first Bevins. I think first Bevin's first mistake was he's very bombastic. I think people like look at Trump and sit there and say, I could be just like him. And they take the wrong lessons. And the lesson should be, hey, I could speak towards the American people's interests on America first topics. And instead they're like, hey, I could act, you know, rude to people and be funny and get away with it. Most people are not funny. Matt Bevin's not particularly funny. Donald Trump's hilarious so that he has that advantage. But Matt Bevin went after not the teachers union, but teachers, which is two very separate thing. He went after the profession itself. He said they were selfish and had a thug like mentality. Then he went after trying to stop the Medicaid expansion that the previous Democratic governor had already okayed, which given 400,000 Kentucky residents, mostly poor, rural white Republicans were on. So cutting 400,000 Republican voters from the Medicaid. Medicaid expansion was definitely a big, big hit. Lastly, you know, Kentucky, I've done some business in Kentucky. Kentucky is a, a business owner's like paper, like a. It's a nightmare. It's a nightmare to employ people. You have to go. It's tons of red tape. It reminds me of Illinois and New York. It should be a lot, a lot easier to do business in Kentucky than it currently is. And they have a lot of fiscal problems on the state levels. There's a lot of money owed in pension programs that they have not, they don't have a, they don't have a plan for. So Bevin's plan was austerity. And austerity is never popular, but especially not when people are already economically and uncertain areas and when you're cutting off Medicaid expansion and you're not a particularly lovable person because you're bombastic, all of those things ended up counting. So that's why Bevin lost. It seems like it was an easy win to have and he just, yeah, he just had a lot. It was a cut. It was a death by a thousand paper cuts. So but that's the story and that's why Matt Bevin lost and that's why Democrats currently hold the governorship of Kentucky. Anyway, thank you for your question, Robert. Great question. Love telling stories about political campaigns and history. So love questions like that. Anyway, thank you guys for listening. I will speak to you all on Monday. Stay tuned. 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Episode: "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Voter Turnout, Battleground States, and Shifting Demographics"
Host: Ryan Graduski
Date: October 9, 2025
In this episode, Ryan Graduski delivers a dense, data-driven analysis of political campaigns, voter turnout trends, and America’s changing demographic landscape heading into the 2025 election. Graduski explores critical battleground races, early voting stats, and troubling shifts in fertility rates, all delivered with trademark candor and political savvy. The episode closes with an audience Q&A, including a deep dive into Democratic success in historically Republican Kentucky.
Q: How did Democrats hold the governorship in Kentucky despite Republican national trends?
For listeners seeking a statistical, behind-the-scenes take on American elections and demographic change—this episode delivers context, candor, and compelling numbers.