The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Washington, DC Crime with Amber Duke
Date: September 4, 2025

Overview of Episode

This episode, hosted by Ryan Graduski (guest-hosting on the Numbers Game segment), focuses on the rapidly shifting crime landscape in Washington, DC, examining data trends in violent crime and the political and policy responses to those numbers. The highlight is a detailed interview with Daily Caller editor Amber Duke about the impact of President Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops in DC and the city's changing patterns in both crime and criminal justice policy. The episode also explores the political manipulation of crime statistics, the underreporting of crime, and challenges facing local police forces.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Washington, DC Crime: Is There Really a Problem?

• Liberal Narrative vs. Reality: There’s been liberal pushback against Trump’s deployment of the National Guard, with claims that "crime is going down." Amber Duke labels this misleading, emphasizing manipulation and underreporting.
• Manipulation of Statistics:
  • The DC police chief is under investigation for allegedly classifying violent crimes as nonviolent.
  • Prosecutors often reduce or avoid charges under the guise of not "over prosecuting," especially in youth crime.
• Changing Nature of Crime:
  • "Crime has become more randomized," hitting wealthier neighborhoods and formerly "safe" areas, often by "roving gangs of illegal aliens and youth offenders."
  • Residents now feel less able to avoid victimization through typical cautious behavior.
    (Amber Duke, 18:29-21:06)

Personal Experiences Highlighting the Problem

• Ryan's Experience: More instances of being followed or threatened in short DC visits than in decades living in New York, including witnessing a "live shooting in Chinatown."
  (Ryan Graduski, 21:07-22:57)

The Impact of National Guard Deployment: The Numbers

• Crucial Statistical Drops Post-Deployment (Aug 11–25, 2025 vs. 2024):
  • Carjackings: ↓96%
  • Robberies: ↓68%
  • Homicides: ↓67%
  • All violent crime: ↓52%
  • Burglary: ↓47%
  • Total crime: ↓21%
    (Amber Duke, 22:57-24:39)
• Prior Trends: Crime was already falling somewhat year-over-year, but nothing like the rapid drop since the National Guard arrived.

“Numbers don’t lie… the numbers are very clear here that Trump’s approach to crime in D.C. is working.”
— Amber Duke, (24:24)

National Context: The Two Eras of Crime Trends

• 1990–2013: Crime nationwide consistently declined.
• 2015–2020: Post-Ferguson and BLM, crime spiked.
• Post-2020: Some decline, but most cities still worse than 2014 baseline.

Law Enforcement Strategy and Resource Allocation

• DC Metropolitan Police are severely understaffed (“10, $20,000 signing bonuses” have little impact due to low morale and lack of charging by prosecutors).
• National Guard presence enables DC’s limited police to focus on high-crime neighborhoods (mainly SE across the Anacostia).
  (Amber Duke, 26:29-27:41)

Policy: Prosecution, Recidivism, and Reform

• Recidivism Is Key: “Average homicide suspect in D.C. had committed 11 priors.”—Amber Duke, quoting former Chief Robert Conti (28:34-32:17)
• Youth Criminal Justice Reform:
  • Originally allowed 15-year release for those tried as adults if good behavior, but revised to mandatory release at 10 years for anyone under 25 at time of offense, regardless of crime’s circumstances.
  • “You could rape someone when you're 25… and get out when you are 35 years old. That is insanity.”
    — Amber Duke (32:17-33:26)
• Effectiveness of ‘Three Strikes’ Laws: RAND study showed California’s law reduced violent crime by 20%.

Comparing DC with Other Cities

• Chicago: Even with 50+ weekend shootings, leadership resists National Guard.
• State vs. Local Authority: Federal government has the authority (“domestic tranquility”).
• Underreporting:
  • “National Crime Victimization Survey… helps capture underreporting and under prosecution.”
    — Amber Duke, (33:26-36:31)
  • Many residents don’t bother reporting crime due to lack of prosecution.

Reality of Urban Living and Quality of Life

• Residents’ personal safety and comfort affected by both crime and low-level disorder.
• Example: Restaurant goer’s encounter with homeless individual openly defecating—“I wasn’t technically a victim of a crime, but I’m still going to feel less safe in my city because that occurred.”
  — Amber Duke, (38:16-40:19)

Political Responses and Larger Implications

• Republicans should “take a page out of Trump’s playbook” to fix blue city crime—especially areas like Jackson, Mississippi.
• Crime’s impact felt beyond victimization—includes housing prices and civic morale.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On the illusion of declining crime:

  “If you say, well, numbers are down between 2020 and 2024, it’s like, okay, well, down from one of their highest peaks since the 1990s.”
  — Amber Duke, (18:29)

• The fear and randomness of crime now:

  “We have seen crime become more randomized, meaning it’s spread out across the city into wealthier enclaves… people feel more unsafe because it seems like their ability to become a victim is much more random…”
  — Amber Duke, (18:29-21:06)

• On coordination between Guard and police:

  “Having the National Guard there to patrol Georgetown on M Street or to be a Navy Yard allows the police that you do have… to focus on the neighborhoods where the crime originates.”
  — Amber Duke, (26:29-27:41)

• Critique of lenient youth-offender policy:

  “You could rape someone when you’re 25 years old in D.C. and get out when you are 35 years old. That is insanity.”
  — Amber Duke, (32:17-33:26)

• Personal anecdote on safety:

  “In D.C., I have been followed more times than in all 36 years in New York… and I have had more incidences, including in broad daylight…”
  — Ryan Graduski, (21:07-22:57)

• On underreporting:

  “The police convinced [my husband] not to press charges because they said he would be back out on the street the next day. It wasn’t worth his time.”
  — Amber Duke, (36:34)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [17:47] Interview Begins: Amber Duke on DC’s crime reality
• [18:29] Crime is more randomized and harder to avoid in DC post-pandemic
• [22:57] Detailed statistical drops in crime post-National Guard deployment
• [24:39] National perspective: US violent crime trends since 1990
• [26:29] Policing strategies and the Guard’s role
• [28:34] Policy problems: Criminal justice “reform” and recidivism stats
• [33:26] National Victimization Survey & underreporting
• [36:34] Anecdotes of crime, everyday harassment, and police disincentives to report
• [38:16] Policy solutions: Republicans and urban crime, quality-of-life dimensions
• [40:19] Broader consequences: housing, city livability
• [41:02] Amber’s plugs (where to find her reporting)

Where to Find Amber Duke

• X: @ambermarieduke
• Work: The Daily Caller
• TV/Podcast: “The Hill’s Rising” every Friday, “Reason’s Free Media” every Tuesday

Episode Takeaways

• Despite claims of falling crime, manipulation and underreporting mask public safety issues.
• National Guard deployment in DC dramatically reduced key crime categories within two weeks.
• Legal reforms and prosecution policies have made it easier for repeat offenders, especially young adults, to return to the streets quickly.
• The perception and reality of urban safety are both eroded not just by crime, but by widespread disorder and lack of enforcement.
• National and local political leadership are at odds over how to manage urban crime crises—with implications for cities across the country.

This summary highlights the urgent, data-driven argument about DC crime and urban security, unpacks policy debates, and brings out the personal tone and memorable anecdotes that define the episode’s impact.