It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Working-Class Voters & the Demographic Realignment

Summary

Summary of "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Working-Class Voters & the Demographic Realignment"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
• Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts
• Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Working-Class Voters & the Demographic Realignment
• Release Date: July 31, 2025

---

Introduction to Key Topics

In this episode of "It's a Numbers Game," host Ryan Gradusky delves into the intricate dynamics shaping the current political landscape. The discussion centers around two main themes:

1. Apple's iOS 26 Update and Its Impact on Political Campaigns
2. Polling Insights and Demographic Shifts Affecting Voter Behavior

Gradusky also engages with guest Zachary Denini, a data analyst and data scientist from Yale Polling, to unpack recent polling data and demographic trends influencing both the Republican and Democratic parties.

---

Apple's iOS 26: A Game Changer for Political Campaigning

Timestamp: [03:23]

Gradusky begins by highlighting a significant development in the tech world: Apple's impending launch of iOS 26. This update introduces a feature that automatically filters text messages from unrecognized numbers into a spam folder, akin to email's spam filtering system.

Key Points:

• Impact on Fundraising: Text messaging accounts for approximately 70% of small-dollar fundraising for Republican campaigns. With texts now landing in spam folders, this could lead to an estimated $500 million loss in grassroots funding within the first year.

  Gradusky: "This will devastate the fundraising efforts on the part of Republican campaigns." ([03:40])

• Effect on Voter Outreach: Beyond fundraising, text messaging is a crucial tool for campaigns' "Get Out The Vote" (GOTV) operations. The inability to reach voters via SMS may hinder efforts to mobilize low-propensity voters, making traditional outreach methods more critical but also more challenging.

• Polling Challenges: The shift away from landlines to exclusively mobile phones complicates polling accuracy. Text-based surveys, a staple for modern pollsters, will become less effective, potentially reducing the reliability of future polling data.

Gradusky emphasizes the broader implications of this change, suggesting it could disproportionately affect conservative and populist movements that rely heavily on small-dollar donations and direct voter engagement.

---

Polling Insights and Demographic Realignment

Timestamp: [24:41]

Introducing guest Zachary Denini, Gradusky explores recent polling data, focusing on the Fabrizio Lee poll and a Data for Progress poll analyzing Democratic voters in New York City.

Key Points:

Demographic Shifts in Voting Patterns

• Black Voters:

  • Nationally, Democrats hold a positive 46% against Republicans' 43% in the generic ballot.
  • In New York City, Bernie Sanders and AOC lead among Democratic voters with +62 and +60 favorability ratings respectively.
  • There is a notable shift of young, moderate, and conservative Black voters towards the Republican Party, albeit a small fraction estimated at 6% of Democratic primary voters being Trump supporters.

  Gradusky: "60% of Democrats say Democrats have moved too far left." ([43:31])

• Hispanic Voters:

  • A significant generational split exists, with younger Hispanic voters showing increased openness to voting Republican.
  • Young Hispanic men, in particular, are shifting towards the GOP, a trend observed not just in the U.S. but also in countries like Canada and the UK.

• White Voters:

  • A rightward shift is evident in specific regions such as Southern California, Northern Virginia, and parts of New York City.
  • Anglo-Saxon suburbanites in areas like Columbus and Milwaukee have increasingly supported Trump, contributing to demographic realignment.

Implications for Political Parties

• Democratic Party:

  • Struggles to retain conservative minorities as key demographics like Black and Hispanic voters become more ideologically polarized.
  • High disfavorability ratings (-30), making it challenging to secure broad-based support without winning over moderates.
  • The party faces a strategic dilemma: adapt to the far-left or risk alienating essential voter blocs.

  Gradusky: "60% of Americans say Democrats have moved too far left." ([43:31])

• Republican Party:

  • Benefits from the loss of fundraising capabilities due to iOS 26 and may need to pivot strategies to maintain voter engagement.
  • Gains from demographic shifts, especially among young and non-white voters, although the sustainability of this support remains uncertain.

Polling Accuracy and Future Predictions

• With the reduction in effective text-based outreach, future polling may face increased inaccuracies and higher costs.
• The current polling shows Democrats leading by a narrow margin, but high unfavorable ratings could undermine their majority in upcoming elections.

---

Q&A Segment: Vermont and Republican Strategies

Timestamp: [50:09]

Gradusky addresses listener questions, focusing on the political shifts in Vermont and the strategic decisions within the Republican Party regarding Senate races.

Key Points:

• Vermont's Political Shift:

  • Despite Vermont's traditionally blue stance, there has been a slight rightward shift attributed to Governor Phil Scott, a liberal Republican.
  • The governor's efforts to campaign down-ballot have resulted in gains for Republicans in the state legislature, although the overall impact on national politics remains limited.

  Gradusky: "Phil Scott did make the state go right. Republicans have more of a footprint there than they've had in a very, very long time." ([50:42])

• Republican Recruitment Challenges:

  • Democrats are perceived to be more effective in encouraging their governors to run for Senate seats, whereas Republicans struggle with recruitment.
  • Notable Republicans like Brian Kemp and Chris Sununu are seen as potential future presidential candidates, indicating a focus on building national profiles rather than local party strengthening.

  Gradusky: "Larry Hogan was not about Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan was about the party." ([50:42])

---

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Throughout the episode, Gradusky underscores the pivotal role of demographic realignment and technological changes in shaping the future of American politics. The potential loss in fundraising capabilities due to Apple's iOS 26 poses a significant threat to Republican campaigns, while the Democratic Party grapples with internal divisions and a shifting voter base.

The discussion with Zachary Denini highlights the importance of understanding these nuanced trends to navigate the evolving political landscape effectively. As both parties face unique challenges, the ability to adapt to demographic shifts and technological disruptions will be crucial in determining their electoral success in upcoming cycles.

---

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Gradusky:
  • "This will devastate the fundraising efforts on the part of Republican campaigns." ([03:40])
  • "60% of Democrats say Democrats have moved too far left." ([43:31])
  • "Larry Hogan was not about Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan was about the party." ([50:42])

---

Further Engagement: Listeners are encouraged to follow Zachary Denini’s analyses on Twitter (@Zacharydanini) and his Substack (@zacharydanini.com) for more in-depth insights into political polling and demographic trends.

Transcript

[Ryan Gradusky]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Annabe]

Time for a sofa upgrade. Visit washablesofas.com and discover Annabe where designer style meets budget friendly prices. With sofas starting at $699, Annabe brings you the ultimate in furniture innovation with a modular design that allows you to rearrange your space effortlessly. Perfect for both small and large spaces, Anime is the only machine washable sofa inside and out. Say goodbye to stains and messes with liquid and stain resistant fabrics that cleaning easy liquid simply slides right off. Designed for custom comfort, our high resilience foam lets you choose between a sink in feel or a supportive memory foam blend. Plus our pet friendly stain resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years. Don't compromise quality for price. Visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your living space today with no risk returns and a 30 day money back guarantee. Get up to 60% off plus free shipping and free returns. Shop now at washablesofas.com Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[Lenovo]

Lenovo is built for creators who don't wait for inspiration. They chase it with inventive tech, built in AI tools and seamless performance. Lenovo devices powered by Intel Core Ultra processors are designed to bring your wildest ideas to life faster. That's the power of Lenovo. With intel inside, enjoy flexible financing, rewards on every purchase and free shipping. And students get special offers when you create an [e-mail] lenovo lenovo.

[Chumba Casino]

How to have fun anytime, anywhere step one go.

[Ryan Seacrest]

To chumbacasino.com chumbacasino.com got it.

[Chumba Casino]

Step two collect your welcome bonus.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Come to papa welcome bonus.

[Chumba Casino]

Step 3 Play hundreds of casino style games for free.

[Ryan Seacrest]

That's a lot of games all for free.

[Chumba Casino]

Step 4 Unleash your excitement.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Woo hoo.

[Annabe]

Chumba Casino has been delivering thrills for over a decade. So claim your free welcome bonus now and live the chumba life. Visit chumbacasino.com no purchase necessary fees AGW.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Group voidware prohibited by law 21 + terms and conditions apply this is Jacob.

[Zachary Denini]

Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting. All linked and talking to each other. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com Sonesta.

[Chumba Casino]

Travel Pass is the most rewarding way to travel. Sign [e-mail] for instant savings, bonus points and perks like early check in and late checkout, room upgrades and free stays. Choose from 1100 hotels across 13 brands and unlock their best rates. When you book with Sonesta Travel Pass here today, Rome tomorrow, join [e-mail] that's sinesta.com terms and conditions apply.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gradoski. Thank you all for being here on this Thursday episode. So we have two things to really get to. One being the most important political story that no one is talking about. And then the other one will be polling, which I'll get to in a second. But first, for the major political story, it doesn't have doing with President Trump or a campaign per se. It has to do with Apple and their new iOS system. Apple's preparing to launch iOS 26, which is the latest upgrade to their operating system. One of the new features that all text messages from unrecognized numbers are put into a spam folder on your phone and you will not be notified. Kind of like how email works. Well, only numbers that are in your contact list or you have contacted first, you'll receive a notification for. This is going to affect a lot of industries. It's going to affect restaurants who text you that your table is ready. It will affect doctor's offices that text you say confirm your appointment. It will affect Uber right Or two step authentication apps and other things that send you notifications from these little phone numbers, these short code numbers and you have to respond yes or no, they're all going in the spam folder. Another industry usually impacted by this is campaigns. It's the industry I work in. So it's what I'm thinking of, you know, first and foremost. First one, first part of that industry will be hurt is fundraising. 70% of all small dollar fundraising comes from SMS text messaging fundraising. Now, I know those texts are very, very annoying because what it usually is is people prospecting, buying names and phone numbers and email addresses from other people's lists and sending fundraising messages out. Now with somebody who has a decent size house file, that's the file that you own of all the people who donated to you. I don't give my house file to anybody. So I Don't do that prospecting element. But it will hurt other people who do because I am the exception, not the rule. Right. That will be resulting in their estimating $500 million of lost revenue for Republican campaigns in one in a first year alone thing. 500 million is how that's, that's grassroots money. That's retirees, that's middle class people, that's upper middle class people. But that is the money. That is the lifeblood that conservatives and populists use to push back against establishment figures, against the George Soroses, Taylor Swifts, the billionaires, the tech for oligarch, the Wall street money. That is what Republican campaigns need to be competitive comes from small dollar donations. That was that. We're going to see that shrink substantially as we did with email. When Google changed the way that you receive email, increasing the number of campaign emails you were getting into your main box versus your spam box. There were ways that campaigns worked it so that way to prove I guess the authenticity that they're not trying to scam you, they're not trying to take your Social Security number. And fundraising emails still managed to get your inbox. Not all the time. And fundraise email as a form of fundraising has decreased substantially. But it still exists. It's still there. This way I'm not getting off it like the, the messages in your inbox at all. This will devastate the fundraising efforts on the part of Republican campaigns. The NRC sent an email saying that they alone will lose about $25 million. And I've heard that President Trump has been made aware of this. It will may affect his fundraising. Will not may. It will absolutely affect his fundraising and his pacs fundraising. And this will affect certainly any Republican candidate that is running for president. Again, the other area of campaign work that it affects is the get out the vote effort, the GOTB operation. Right. Because it's very hard to reach low propensity voters. There's only so much time of the day to door knock. There's only so many volunteers. Anyone has text messaging test. Text messaging has become one of the key ways people reach voters because it's so cheap and they have such high levels of people opening up the text messages. Right. It costs about maybe a penny to 2 pennies per text message to send out for on a campaign. Anyone charging more than two cents is probably ripping you off. FYI if anyone's listening to this. But two, two and a half cents, perfectly reasonable. If you're going to the four cents range, you're being Ripped off two and a half pennies though. Is it very, very cheap cost to send to tens of thousands of people to remind them, hey, election day is on Tuesday. It's, you know, I'm the candidate, I'm the Republican, the Democrat, I'm the conservative running in this election. Please vote for me. Without getting that, you know, having that avenue to reach voters, even to send them your commercial. Because that's what candidates do now too. They send them their commercial, their ad. They're not just asking for money. They're saying, this is who I am. Please consider voting for me. You lose a key way to sit there and reach voters. Think of it like this. When I was working for Michael Bloomberg's campaign in 2000, this is his third term mayoral election in 2009, the rule on the Bloomberg campaign was you had to touch a voter seven times. That means a text message, a robocall, a door knocker, a mailer, whatever, a commercial. They had to see your name seven times to know who you were and know you were running for office. Now, the Bloomberg campaign had unlimited funds. He was funding themselves. I mean, we were able to do whatever we wanted to do, but that's not the case for almost any campaign. There's very tight budgets on these campaigns to reach, to vote, to reach voters. It's incredibly hard. And it's not the 90s and 2000s anymore where you could just buy commercial time on the, the, the golden hour of television, which is the hour between Jeopardy, Wheel of Fortune and your local news. That's when most of the money for all local news is being made for the TV networks is being made. And when you, you can maximize the number of people likely to vote in an election with commercials, I mean those, that time, that hour does still matter. But what people increasingly watching YouTube, TV, Hulu, you know, all these other things, it, rather than watching either basic television or cable, your, your way of reaching voters has to expand because the media market has diversified so much. Texting is a major part of that, whether we like it or not. Gutting that means low propensity voters are less likely to ever hear about a candidate is running. Not everyone gets the attention that, you know, a president does. They just don't. Joe Rogan and Theo Von are not gonna do PSAs every special election saying Joe Schmo is running in South Carolina's 53rd seat. They rely on cheap methods to get to voters. You know, mailboxes, inboxes, front doors, whatever. That's just the nature of campaigning. Taking that away really hurts. Conservatives more than Democrats because we're the party of lower propensity and working class voters. The last part that I think that people should be aware of, of the political industry that was hurt by this substantially is polling. People don't have landlines anymore. You know, I really want a landline. You know, me, myself, actually, I would love to get a landline, but I. People do not have landlines. They are relying increasingly on cell phones and especially texting. That is a key form of how a lot of these new pol are getting a hold of voters is by texting them and saying, would you like to participate in that survey? It takes a lot of text and a lot of effort to get respondents and then to double check them and to figure out, you know, if they're registered and what party they are and yada, yada, yada, and weight the thing, weigh the polling answers. All of that takes a lot of time and a lot of effort and it's going to become way harder. All the good new pollsters that nailed 2024 all use this as a method to sit there and to get a hold of. If that's taken out of the equation now, polling will be so much more difficult, so much more expensive, and probably a lot less accurate even than it is currently, which is a big problem. I know that these text messages are annoying. I get it. Because I, I'm annoyed by them. I mean, right last November I was ready to throw my phone against the wall. I get it. I 110% get it. But that is the way Americans communicate now. That is the way to reach people. And when you're sitting there and you were saying, I don't want them to reach me in this way, guess who wins? People who control the airwaves, who dominate stuff in all the traditional methods and all the traditional ways. Right? People who, people who are on television all the time, the establishment news media's narratives, people who can get on big podcasts and big television shows and get those exclusives. Not many candidates can. Not every candidate can. I think it's worth remembering that. So I know that the NRC is worried. I know the RNC is worried. I know that President Trump's team has heard about it and they are concerned. Let's see if Apple goes through with it or kind of changes it a little bit to make sure that some people can get some messages across or even if it was an opt in feature that you had to opt in, that all the messages come through, because let's say you don't want to have to, you know, not get your Uber notification of your Ubers on its way or whatever. I'm sure that they. People would choose not to opt in. Not everybody. Some will. Some would choose that. But not everyone choose never to opt in. So we'll see. The other thing that's going to. That's my pet peeve that I want to talk about. I know I sound very annoyed. It's. I'm not really annoyed. It's just. This is a pet peeve is that when I do the podcast for the Monday show, I have to tape it on Thursday or Friday. Well, polling sometimes comes up over the weekend and I miss it for the Monday show. And I like to present you guys with all the information I possibly can. And that's what happened this weekend. The Wall Street Journal had a poll by Fabrizio Lee. Now, for those of you who are super soon to politics, you've heard the name Fabrizio before. That is a band named Tony Fabrizio. He is a polling legend. He has been around for decades. He worked for Pappy Cannon and Bob Dole and Rand Paul and David Per Do. And, you know, you name him, he's worked for them. And he most notably President Trump's pollster. I think that part of the reason that President Trump's team was so confident in this last election is that his polling, which was dead on, said, no, you're going to win. I think they were, you know, concerned with popular vote, but they were like, no, the path to Electoral College is very, very clear. I met Tony Fabrizio during the JD Vance campaign, and I always been a big fan of his work. But him as a person, he is, you know, Italian, like me from Queens, New York, a total paisan. And it was like meeting somebody you always known. Like, like, we've known each other forever. And we had a. He's a great guy. He's a lot of fun, but he's also super bright at polling. Okay, so Fabrizio Le's poll is different than most of the narratives you've seen from a lot of other pollsters like Gallup. First of all, Democrats are ahead in the generic ballot in the 2026 election by three points. They lead 46 to 43. Now, that is a good number for Democrats. That's enough to win the House majority for sure. But that is not where they were in 2018. Now, in 2018 at this time, Democrats led Republicans between six and 14 points in the generic ballot in most polling. So three is enough to win the five seats needed eight seats, whatever it is, not enough to win 30, 50, 60 seats. It's not going to be the wave election as of right now that Democrats had in the past. And part of that is that the Democratic brand is so far in the dirt. Democrats have a negative 30 point rating right now. Republicans have negative 11. I mean, it's something I would sit there and start dancing about. But negative 30 points is horrific. It's the worst I have ever. It's the worst not only I've ever seen, it's the worst I've ever taken by Tony Fabrizio and the Fabrizio Leap hole. That is absolute gutter trash. And basically all you are is just the default non presidential ticket. And that's why they're going to support you if you're going to win this election. Now for President Trump, his ratings were not that bad. He had a 46% approval rating, 52% disapproval rating. For President Trump, that's pretty good. 4,652 is pretty good for him historically, definitely better than his first term. His strongest issue remains immigration, especially when it comes to the border. And he's done a phenomenal job. So that's easily understandable. The economy and inflation though, is where voters are continued to worry. Now they've, they've gotten a little bit more optimistic since all the conversations of recession and depression have kind of subsided. But on the issues of inflation and tariffs, they remain worried. And I think part of it is that they are worried obviously that the tariffs are going to increase costs to them. But we are still dealing with the aftermath of Biden inflation where inflation was outpacing wages not for everything. I mean, prices for eggs have come down and gas have come down, but the overall average has not come down to like 2019 levels where when he was president last time, it's going to take several years of wages outpacing inflation to get to the power, to getting to a purchasing power that voters feel comfortable with. And until that happens, they're going to blame who's ever in office for doing it. So right now President Trump is earning a lot of that blame. It's just the way that politics works. I think that the other, I think it's a breath of fresh air. For President Trump though, being down negative six is not terrible. If things pick up, though, if things get better, it's going to be in a place where maybe Republicans and Democrats go into this election in a tide place. And in that case, I think especially with people redistricting and states redistricting, the House Becomes a question of whether Democrats win it or not. The Senate, there's really no path for the Democrats to win it in this election cycle. It becomes. It's almost impossible right now. It becomes virtually impossible in, in a situation where Democrats are only leading by three points or are tied. Let's start with Democrats and their poll. Recently, a Data for Progress poll asked New York City Democrats of their favorable unfavorable opinion of several prominent Democratic leaders. And guess who is the most popular? It's not the Obamas or the Clintons or the Bidens or Kamala Harris. The most popular Democrat 2 Democrat voters in New York City is Bernie Sanders. He has a plus 62 point favorability rating. AOC is right behind him with 60 points. Zoram Mandani has plus 42 points. Mandani is more popular than Governor Kathy Hogle, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand or Andrew Cuomo. Nearly half of Democrat voters in New York City said they are swayed by Mandani because he's a fierce critic of Israel. And 62% of Democrats want federal government to reduce their support of Israel. 66% of Democrats in New York City said their sympathies lie with Palestine, not with Israel. And a majority of Democrats, they're going to support candidates that favor reducing foreign aid to Israel. Obviously, Israel isn't the only motivating factor in this election or any election. But it says a lot about where the Democratic Party is moving and the place that they are. Because there's things to criticize Israel over, like there's things to criticize every country. Or you can criticize Mongolia. You can criticize anybody. Right? There is an element, though of the criticism towards Israel rooted in anti, yes, anti Zionism and anti Semitism. But what I pick up on is the rudeness in anti whiteness. The viewpoint by the far left to view everything as a fight between the oppressors and the oppressed. And that is a lot to do with racial identity. So because the Jews in Israel are perceived to be whiter than the Palestinians, they are the oppressors and the Palestinians of the oppressed. And everything is a view through that lens. Capitalism and America and race relations in America, policing, everything is viewed with that lens. And the Democratic Party has adopted that mentality as being far left. And I think that if you are Hakeem Jeffries or Chuck Schumer or Kirsten Gillibrand or Kathy Hochul and you're looking at your base of your party and how they are responding. It's going to be adapt or watch your political career die. My guest this week is a super smart data analysis who's seen the emerging trends in both the Trump Republican Party and the far left coalitions of the Democratic Party, and he's going to tell us what he sees coming up next. Stay tuned.

[Annabe]

Let's be real Life happens, kids spill, pets shed and accidents are inevitable. Find a sofa that can keep [e-mail] Starting at just $699, our sofas are fully machine washable inside and out so you can say goodbye to stains and hello to worry free living. Made with liquid and stain resistant fabrics, they're kid proof, pet friendly and built for everyday life. Plus, changeable fabric covers let you refresh your sofa whenever you want. Neat flexibility Our modular design lets you rearrange your sofa anytime to fit your space, whether it's a growing family room or a cozy apartment. Plus, they're earth friendly and trusted by over 200,000 happy customers. It's time to upgrade to a stress free mess proof sofa. Visit washablesofas.com today and save that's washablesofas.com offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[Lenovo]

Lenovo is built for creators who don't wait for inspiration. They chase it with inventive tech, built in AI tools and seamless performance. Lenovo devices powered by Intel Core Ultra processors are designed to bring your wildest ideas to life faster. That's the power of Lenovo. With intel inside. Enjoy flexible financing, rewards on every purchase and free shipping. And students get special offers offers. When you create an [e-mail].

[Ryan Gradusky]

Step into the world of power, loyalty and luck.

[Jacob Goldstein]

I'm gonna make him an offer he.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Can'T refuse with family. Cannolis and spins mean everything. Now you want to get mixed up in the family business. Introducing the [e-mail] test your luck in the shadow the of world of the Godfather slots.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Someday I will call upon you to do a service for me.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Play the Godfather [e-mail] Welcome to the family.

[Jacob Goldstein]

No purchase necessary. VGW Group void we're prohibited by law 21 + terms and conditions apply.

[Chumba Casino]

Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty makes powerful and effective skincare. Simple and it's light. Loved by millions of women, it's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types and it's designed to work as a complete skin care system, leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's full regimen which contains all five of her best selling products including the Amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next generation serum has the power of melon Leaf Stem cell technology. It's melon leaf stem cells encapsulated for freshness and released on of the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and you can get the Amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just $49.95. That includes our introductory five piece system, free gifts, free shipping and a 60 day money back guarantee. All that [e-mail] this is Jacob Goldstein.

[Zachary Denini]

From what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting, all linked and talking to each other. Check out [e-mail] that's O D O O.com.

With me on today's episode is Zachary Denini. He is a data analyst and a data scientist from Yale Polling. Zachary, thank you for being here.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Thank you very much for having me on.

[Zachary Denini]

So there were two polls that recently come out. There was the Fabrizio Leap poll which looked at national trends, which showed Trump at a decent SP negative 6% overall, but 46 to 52, which was for Trump. It's pretty good. And then there was another poll from Data for Progress that analyzed and looked at which Democrats had the highest name appeal from especially New York City Democrats, which are probably more progressive than the average Democratic voter. But they're not that strong of an outlier. I wouldn't say they're there. They're probably to the right of Portland, but to like the left of South Carolina. There was a narrative after the Mandani primary that Mandani and Trump voters were a lot alike or that there was some overlap in the vote. Is that anything you noticed in the data? Is that provable at all or is that just a narrative? Because there were a Lot of minorities and young people in both coalitions.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah. So I think a lot of the people demographically who have shifted towards Trump from Biden from 2020 to 2024 and who voted for Mamdani are similar in the sense that they are young. Right. The Trump did as well as the GOP candidate has done with young voters with Gen Z, as we've seen in decades. And Mamdani's win was first and foremost fueled by young voters. What I would say is. So Nate Cohn at the New York Times did some great voter rule analysis. From his poll matching to the voter file, his determination was that only 6% of voters in the New York City Democratic mayor primary voted for said they voted for Trump. And my analysis, about a third of those are Orthodox Jews alone, which Cuomo won by massive margins over Mamdani. So we're Talking about only 1 in 25 voters in the Democratic primary election being Trump voters. Did Mamdani do well with those Trump voters? Maybe he did. He did well in Asian and Hispanic areas that are registered deaf and shifted towards Trump in 2024, but there aren't that many of them. So if he did well, it was at a small scale and it didn't contribute that much to his overall victory.

[Zachary Denini]

When you look at the Trump's margins and how the Republican Party under him has changed, you presented, I think a graph with like what regions had shifted to the right and there was immense right wing shift in like Southern California and New York City. How and, and tons loose specs in suburban and even rural areas, especially outside of Atlanta, for example. How, how does the GOP coalition look differently than it did in 2012? Is it just. Would it, would it have happened no matter what? And because, you know, it has changed among other right wing parties in Europe, let's say, whatever.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah.

[Zachary Denini]

Is it inevitable or is it really a Trump thing? How does it look different?

[Jacob Goldstein]

So first of all, I think Trump definitely has a unique appeal, especially from a turnout standpoint to working class Republican base voters. The Republican base lapped the Democratic base in 2024. If Trump was on the ballot again in 2028, I think it would be the same way. With Trump off the ballot, who knows? It depends. It will be a new dynamic. But that being said, I do think there's a little bit of inevitability here in this sense. So Hispanic voters shifted from 65% Biden to 54% Harris, according to my estimates. That's a huge shift. And that shift was concentrated with people who self identify as either moderate or conservative. And like a lot of people say, oh, you know, Hispanic and black voters, they're getting way more conservative recently, huh? And I say, well, they're getting way more Republican. But the self ID ideology stuff is not changing that much. So for example, this is CCCS Cooperative Election Study data from Harvard. 45% of black people who I self identify as moderate who are 18 to 29, sorry, Harris won those, the young black moderates by 45 points. Harris won black moderates who are 65 years or older by 93 points. So what we're seeing is a lot of people who voted for Biden are moderate or conservative, are people of color and then flip to Trump. And then we're also seeing generational churn where young, moderate and conservative non white voters are more open to voting for the Republican Party than their elders who are literally dying off. Because we get the generational churn every election.

[Zachary Denini]

Right, right. And that I think is, you know, a while ago, I would say maybe the 2016. Every time working on Republican politics, you'd always hear what we're going to focus on. We're going to focus on the black vote. And back in 2012, you probably were like a kid. There was this big, there was this big emphasis on trying to push a gay marriage initiative in North Carolina because an anti gay marriage initiative in North Carolina because they were going to turn the black vote out and the black vote is against gay marriage and they'll vote the Democrats. I believe it was 2012, I'm pretty sure it was. And it they voted against gay marriage and then they voted for Barack Obama. And I said to people, you are going to have to wait for a generational change and either to even make the smallest impact because there's just no way, I guess that general change has just happened when I'm going to break down the vote by three ways. The Asian votes too hard to sit there and try to advocate because it's not that many of them. But if you look at first of all, the black vote, is there any area of the country that it really didn't move like that? There was a thing that changed.

[Jacob Goldstein]

So throughout the entire country, my estimates have going from 86% Biden, sorry, 89% Biden to 86% Harris. That's definitely a slight change. That's roughly by as much as that the country changed as a whole. So it's not even that black voters shifted more than the country. And right now it appears that black voters in northern inner cities, and I use the term Inner city. To specifically note, these are the black voters who live in precincts with the highest poverty rates and bottom 10th income in the country. And then the south, those black voters moved a little bit less. Black voters that lived in suburbs or in less black areas trended, trended more to the right towards Trump, for instance. I think, you know, there's actually a lot of state by state variation in the black vote. I have Harris still winning 94% of the Black vote in Maryland in 2024 versus only 86 in the country as a whole.

[Zachary Denini]

So you're saying, wait, so you're saying the less, the more that they lived in mixed race communities, they were more likely to vote?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yes.

[Zachary Denini]

That's interesting because you said that that's the opposite of white voters, white voters, minority communities. Is it? And I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, is it, is it that people assume the political identity of their neighbors more often?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah, I think, you know, I'm not a sociologist, but what I can say is I think most analysts agree that, you know, to put it in a sentence, black voters are moving away from the Democratic Party because local institutions are breaking down such as like the black church and there's social media. So if I'm a black conservative, I'm more exposed to other black conservatives and you know, that will facilitate, you know, the growth of more black conservatives because in the long term it's Unlikely a group stays 955 as we're just becoming such a, you know, connected country.

[Zachary Denini]

And now that education is a not a bigger political indicator than races, but it is certainly exactly equally as profound among, among the white vote. You marked me very interesting. You said the only places that there was a sizable shift to the left among white voters were places like Alaska, North Carolina, New Mexico, rather Georgia and the areas around Washington D.C. and you said the only linkage to keeping some white voters Democrat was federal jobs, federal employees, is that right?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah, I think so. There were, there were two groups of white voters who, who shifted left. So one is just Anglo Saxon upper middle class suburban voters. So think about the suburbs of Milwaukee, the suburbs of Columbus, these voters that were upper, in upper middle class suburbs in the northeast, who were Irish, Italian, even Jewish, shifted towards Trump pretty substantially.

[Zachary Denini]

Even western Massachusetts.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

[Zachary Denini]

As communist as it gets. Left wing progress, traditionally progressive, they had a substantial seven point, I think swing towards Trump.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah, exactly. I think you get a lot of, in western Mass, you get those old mining areas. One of my favorite, like very specific anecdotes from the 2024 election is there's this town in Montana called Bute which is an Irish mining town. So it's in the middle of the country where there are very few Irish, Italian, Portuguese people. You get this one Irish mining town. And it's the biggest trend to the right out of any similarly sized town in Montana. Sorry. But to get back to the original point, yeah, we have the Anglo Saxon suburbanites around Columbus, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, but that's not that many people. It's a pretty narrow band of suburbs and exurbs when we're talking about the country as a whole. And then you have federal employees, New Mexico, Alaska, Northern Virginia. And I think for this November, for people interested in Virginia politics, it's pretty notable with doge and government cuts. That's probably one reason Spanberger seems to be in such a strong position right now.

[Zachary Denini]

Yeah, I think. What was it? I think 25,000 federal jobs have been cut. I might be wrong on the actual number, but it's in the tens of thousands. All right, then I guess the last point and the key point would be the Latino vote, because that's the one that everyone was whispering, it could happen, it could happen. And then it did happen. Were there. Is it the same with black voters, is that they're not becoming more conservative, they're just becoming more Republican?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah, I think there's evidence Latino voters are becoming a little bit more conservative. So I don't want to attribute it to 100%, you know, moderate and conservative voters voting for Trump, more controlling for the identity. But yeah, another good fact is, so, yeah, 18 to 44 Hispanic moderates were Harris plus 22, 45 plus Hispanic moderates were Harris plus 42. Right. You get this 20 point gap just with the, with the two different generations and specifically there's the young men, young Latino men, even, you know, young black men, young Asian men. The David Shore from Blue Rose Research estimates that Trump won the majority of non white 18 year old men in the country, which is a pretty crazy stat if you would have heard it eight to 12 years ago. So, yeah, you're again, just getting young Hispanic men are significantly more conservative than older Hispanic men. But yeah, even controlling for that, young Hispanics feel more open to vote for Trump and vote for Republicans than their older moderate counterparts. And I don't comment on whether things are good or bad normatively a lot as a nonpartisan analyst, but I think the vast majority of America would agree that ideological polarization is good. It's good to live in a country where conservatives want to vote for the Conservative Party. Liberals want to vote for the generally liberal party. So this is kind of like, nice to see in a way that ideology is just becoming very predictive of voter choice.

[Zachary Denini]

What I find very interesting about the Latino change, even more than the black change, is that in areas of the country where there was really no Trump campaign, like Trump wasn't campaigning in Chicago or Los Angeles. He made one rally event at the Bronx, but he wasn't campaigning in the Bronx. There was no like door knockers or what or commercials being run. That's where you saw the most significant shift, because the change was all organic looking. And I know you don't have a crystal ball, so I'm not saying you are. Do these kinds of changes though, look predictive, that they are continuing? Or is it a Trump thing? Or is it a thing? Like, is it just what's moving?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah, it's so hard to know. One piece of evidence that makes me think it's not a Trump thing, but this will stick would be looking at other elections, like for instance, Canada and the uk, where non white voters are also trending towards the Conservative Party in that country. You saw it in a lot of the Asian Canadian suburbs. So we like to think we're special in America. I spend 98% of my time analyzing American politics. But the kind of two big trends of 2024 were young men broke really hard for the Republican Party and Hispanics and Asians, non white voters broke really hard for the Republican Party. You see that former trend, young men breaking hard in South Korea, Germany, uk. You see the latter trend in diversified Western elections recently like uk, Canada and US all the same. So that makes me think it will stick some. But then I guess quickly, the counterargument would be in 2024, Democrats did better down ballot with Asian and Hispanic voters than they did at the top of the ballot. So that would be the counterargument.

[Zachary Denini]

Right. I was thinking of that. I mean, like Ted Cruz did worse in the Mexico, Texas border than Trump did, but he did better than he did six years prior.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah, yeah.

[Zachary Denini]

So maybe. Yeah, I don't know. I go back and forth on that. So let's look at the progressive vote for a second. How. And I guess New York City is not a perfect microcosm of the Democratic Party is what we have right now. Yeah, I guess you can look at the New Jersey governor's race too, because it is a good microcosm as well. What are you, what are we seeing as far as how the Democrats are transforming? There's obviously a bigger appeal among seniors. As I always tell people always ask me like why are seniors so going so far left? I say because the seniors in your head that you're thinking of who are seniors are probably dead by now. Yeah, the, this is a very old reference. But you, I don't know if you know like the all in the family reference of like Archie Bunker is dead now but Meathead is a senior citizen. Like that kind of transformation, generational transformation happened. So like Henry Fonda is dead, but Jane Fonda is a senior. So the progressive activists of the 60s are 75. The, the interesting thing about that group of like older maybe progressive people being such a prominent part of the Democratic Party and them losing so many working class voters is that what's partially fueling the far left movement is the ones.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Who are left over.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Exactly, exactly. Going back to the first thing we talked about here with how Mamdani did well in majority Asian and Hispanic areas that shifted to Trump. Yet you know, New York Times Nate Cohn has only 5% of the turn out actually being Trump voters. What you're getting is the base of voters that anchors Democrats in kind of like moderate center left neoliberal candidates is usually has historically been conservative Asian, Hispanic and black voters and moderate Asian, Hispanic and black voters who still vote in Democratic primaries. And the moderate black voters are still there. Right. All in all in 2024 they stuck around. But especially in cities in New York where you're getting more and more Asian and Hispanic vote versus black vote, the, the moderate and conservative Asians and Hispanics left the party in 24 basically probably for good. Right. Because I don't think anyone thinks that it's a sustainable strategy for Democrats to win 60% of self IDing conservative Hispanics in the future.

[Zachary Denini]

And that happened in 2016.

[Jacob Goldstein]

And yeah, yeah, maybe not quite 60%. I, I, I want every reference point.

[Zachary Denini]

Though, like oh this, this was how long ago that they were winning?

[Jacob Goldstein]

60%. Exactly. And yeah, probably wasn't quite 60, but you know, it was getting around there and yeah, so now that those voters are gone, they're not anchoring the party anymore and like the Democrats are kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place. This, there's this Wall Street Journal poll that had Democrats at 33% favorable, Democratic Party is 33% favorable, which got a lot of press. The part of that poll I thought was even more interesting is that 60% of Americans say Democrats have moved too far left, which you know, if you're trying to get 50% of the vote for Democrats. You need to convince 1 in 6 people who thinks Democrats have moved too far left to vote for you. On the other side, you have, you know, Democrats, or I should say progressives, who've proven they're not afraid to not vote for the presidential candidate. About my estimate is 1 in 200 voters would have voted for Harris and Democrats but didn't because of Gaza. That's like, you know, that's a Senate seat in Pennsylvania. That's halfway to the tipping point of the House.

[Zachary Denini]

You know, it's one in 200 is. That's not. What is that as a percentage point?

[Jacob Goldstein]

5.0.5%.

[Zachary Denini]

So half a percentage. Okay, yeah, half a percent.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah. So that, Sorry, my math was failing.

[Zachary Denini]

Me at the moment, frantically, like, what is that?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah, but I just did it said half a percent.

[Ryan Gradusky]

No, it's okay.

[Jacob Goldstein]

So I get that from polling and then kind of, you know, if you do some rough assumptions with the New York City mayor race, you can get about that 1% of people didn't vote for Harris in 2024 and then voted for Mamdani in the primary, which, you know, as we said, we assume New York City would be overrepresented there. But either way, you're getting, yeah, you're getting the, you know, 60% of people think Democrats have moved too far left. And then you're getting the current energy and success and turnout in the Democratic Party being on the line, wanting to.

[Zachary Denini]

Pull the party as the Democrats become increasingly more progressive and Republicans become like this mishmash of working class voters. Where do moderates find themselves?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah, some Gallup polling recently is that 37% of the country's moderate, 36% conservative, 25% liberal. Right. So you get the 36 conservative, 25 liberal. It's been pretty consistent over the past couple decades. This because Democrats aren't winning conservative minorities anymore. They need to win the lion's share of moderates or they need an extreme dominating turnout advantage from their base. Right. There's basically two options. Third option is that maybe you could argue a left wing candidate like AOC could also do really well with working class moderate Hispanics and Asian people. But overall, Democrats are going to have to be winning the majority of moderates at a minimum, ideally more like 60 to 70%. So I think what that means is Democrats are going to be taking losses if they don't win moderates. Right. The median voter theorem view of politics is backed a lot. I think there's some good split ticket data from Lakshaya Jain in 2024 about how moderate Democratic House candidates ran better. There's always a fight in the party between the kind of moderate popularist wing and the progressive wing. And the reality is that there's just more evidence recently backing the moderate populist wing to win elections. The exception to that is in maybe lower turnout elections, like midterms or off cycle elections, that turnout edge can get really dominating for Democrats. And many progressive Democrats would say that their candidates can incite that enthusiasm and get that turnout edge for them.

[Zachary Denini]

So is an AOC or an AOC style candidate being the Democratic nominee eventually inevitable, though, with that kind of equation in the mix?

[Jacob Goldstein]

I think it's getting close to inevitable in the sense that all of the excitement and enthusiasm in the Democratic Party right now is from the left and from that wing of the party. I also think just in the near future for 2028, there will be a lot of different candidates fighting over the moderate wing. There could just be one candidate, aoc, who immediately gets the progressive lane to herself, which is always an advantage to coalesce sooner in a primary. How effective that general election campaign will be, I have no idea. I think it's completely feasible that AOC could do better with, you know, Hispanic moderates because a lot of people's ideology isn't as strict as, you know, I like to think about it, you know, like here's a line and on one side super conservative, one side super liberal. Some people vote based on vibes and stuff. That's.

[Zachary Denini]

That's untrue. All right, Zach, you. Where can people go to read more of your analysis? I find your stuff so interesting and worth looking at.

[Jacob Goldstein]

You can go find me on Twitter @Zacharydanini D O N N I n I. And then I also have a [e-mail] I write on a little less. But if I have even more thoughts than usual and I can't fit all of them onto my Twitter, you'll get some articles.

[Zachary Denini]

Well, Zachary, thank you for being on this podcast. I really appreciate it.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Thank you so much for having me on.

[Ryan Gradusky]

You're listening to it's the Numbers Game with Ryan Gradusky. We'll be right back after this message.

[Annabe]

There's nothing like sinking into luxury. At washablesofas.com, you'll find the Annabe sofa, which combines ultimate comfort and design at an affordable price. And get this, it's the only sofa that's fully machine washable from top to bottom. Starting at only $699. The stain resistant performance fabric slipcovers and cloud like frame duvet can go straight into your wash. Perfect for anyone with kids, pets or anyone who loves an easy to clean spotless sofa. With a modular design and changeable slip covers, you can customize your sofa to fit any space and style. Whether you need a single chair loveseat or a luxuriously large sectional, Annabe has you covered. Visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your home. Right now you can shop up to 60% off store wide with a 30 day money back guarantee. Shop [e-mail] Add a little to your life. Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[Lenovo]

Lenovo is built for creators who don't wait for inspiration. They chase it with inventive tech built in AI tools and seamless performance. Lenovo devices powered by Intel Core Ultra processors are designed to bring your wildest ideas to life faster. That's the power the of of Lenovo with Intel inside. Enjoy flexible financing, rewards on every purchase and free shipping and students get special offers when you create an [e-mail].

[Ryan Gradusky]

It.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Is Ryan Seacrest here. There was a recent social media trend which consisted of flying on a plane with no music, no movies, no entertainment. But a better trend would be going to chumbacasino.com it's like having a mini social casino in your pocket. Chumba casino has over 100 online casino style games all absolutely free. It's the most fun you can have online and on a plane, so grab your free welcome bonus [e-mail] sponsored by Chumba Casino.

[Jacob Goldstein]

No purchase necessary VGW Group Void where prohibited by law 21 + terms and conditions apply.

[Chumba Casino]

Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty makes powerful and effective skincare simple and it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types and it's designed to work as a complete skin care system leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's full regimen which contains all five of her best selling products including the Amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next generation serum has the power of Melon Leaf Stem cell technology. Its melon leaf stem cells encapsulated for freshening and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five star reviews, why not give it a Try subscribe today and you can get the amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just $49.95. That includes our introductory five piece system, free gifts, free shipping, and a 60 day money back guarantee. All that [e-mail] this is Jacob Goldstein.

[Zachary Denini]

From what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com now.

[Ryan Gradusky]

It'S time for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show. If you want to be part of the Ask Me anything, email me Ryan numbers game podcast.com that's Ryan numbers game podcast.com I read all your emails. I really appreciate them. I'm not just saying that. Like I really do love getting these emails in the ad. I think an important part to the show. So please email me. The first one comes from Peter Fumo. He writes, ryan, my wife and I have a share a timeshare every odd summer in Vermont. Two years ago I saw BLM signs. This year I actually saw Trump signs. I know it's anecdotal, but is there any movement from to the right in very blue Vermont. Vermont, Peter. Vermont. Great. Sorry Peter, great question. I'm not even going to edit that out.

[Zachary Denini]

I mean, whatever.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Peter, great question about Vermont. I also love Vermont. I vacation Vermont every single year. I go to Woodstock, I go to Montpelier. I love Vermont. It's an amazing state. Beautiful, beautiful, beautiful. So highly recommend anyone going there if they have not. Here's the Meppermont. There was a shift to the right from 2020 to 2024. Trump gained about a point and a half. A little more than a point and a half, 1.6%. While Connell lost about the same thing, maybe two and a half points. I guess the number went to independence. And he did flip a county. He flipped one of the northern counties of Vermont that borders Canada. That being said, he only got 32% of the vote though. He got 119,000 votes overall. I think like 6,500 voters shifted to Trump. That's not that many, right? It was a shift. Wasn't a big shift. It was lower than the shift nationwide. So no, you're not seeing a shift towards Trump. You may have seen more vocal Trump supporters and I've seen Trump flags in Vermont, but that's not what you're seeing really there. The shift in Vermont towards Republicans though did happen because of Governor Phil Scott. Now Governor Phil Scott is a liberal Republican, there's no doubting that. But unlike so many other Republicans governors of blue states, he actually campaigned for Republicans running down ballot first. He flipped the lieutenant governor's race seat rather in Vermont, like in a few other states, the lieutenant governor and governor run separately from each other. So he flipped the lieutenant governor seat. John Rogers is now the new Republican lieutenant governor. He's the first Republican lieutenant governor that had a Republican governor since 2010. So that's a big deal. But he campaigned down ballot and he broke the Republicans. Sorry the Democrats super majority in the state Senate Democrats went from having 22 seats to having 16 and Republicans were having 13 sorry from seven to 13. So he gained six Senate seats for Republicans almost winning the majority only was down by three seats. And in the state legislature he gained 19 Republican state House seats seats. Vermont has a ton of state house seats for such a small state, but so 19 state House seats, six state Senate seats and a statewide elected office that being lieutenant governor seat. So Phil Scott did make the state go right And Republicans have more of a footprint there than they've had in a very very long time. So if you're seeing anything any trends in Vermont, it's it's Phil Scott voters. It's not really President Trump voters, but anyway, that's it. Levermont Next question comes from Austin Bull. He says hey Ryan, big fan of your podcast and enjoy geeking out over the numbers. You do a great job of cutting through the numbers and helping a regular guy like myself understand the bigger picture. My question is on popular governors choosing to run or not run for Senate seats. It seems Democrats do a much better job again their guys to run. Hickenlooper, Cooper, etc Republicans continually miss out on recruitments Camp Doocy Sununu. Not the biggest fan of Larry Hogan, but at least he got into the fight and tried in Maryland. Do you think that they think they can be president or do Dems just do a better job of bullying their guys to run? Also curious if you think Youngkin is saving for a 28 run or he might be luck in the senate seat in 2020. I guess. I guess in 2030 or run for governor again 29. Love to hear your thoughts Austin. Okay, so Austin, great question. I think that it's a mixed Bag. Right. Larry Hogan definitely bit the bullet. He. He knew he was gonna have a tough time running. And I respect Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan was a Republican governor of a Democratic state who made the Supreme Court of that state Republican. Unlike Charlie Baker, who appointed Democrats the Massachusetts Supreme Court, he campaigned for fair districting maps so Republicans could at least fight for a second Republican House seat in the U.S. house Representatives. He campaign for Republicans down ballot and in 2018, Republicans won one. I think Maryland was the only state Republicans gained seats in the state Senate for in a very tough Republican year. I think that speaks of Larry Hogan's character as a party man. Larry Hogan was not about Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan was about the party. So often when you see these Republicans in these blue states, like a Chris Christie type and Arnold Schwarzenegger type, they are about themselves, about promoting, promoting their brand, right? As that who they are. They are these great unifiers that can win these very top seats to build a national profile. They're not really party people, which is, you know, upsetting. And, and it should. They should be party people. I think that it's a question of which person you're talking about. Like I have heard, and this is all alleged, but I have heard that Brian Kemp is absolutely running for president in 2028, that he has this. This eye set on the prize and that he thinks that he can win the Sununu. Chris Sununu, I've heard, is in the same exact boat that he thinks that he can be president. Now, remember, Sununu's father, Christian's father, John Cenu, was the chief of staff for President George Herbert Walker Bush. And the Sununu family is one of these political dynasties in New Hampshire that kind of have always assumed that one day one of them will be president. So I think that that is definitely in their eyes right now. I don't know why Juicy didn't run. And I've heard that Youngin is exploring his options, that he was interested in running for Senate at one point. He's interested in running for president the other point. I don't know about him running for God, I don't think he's ever for governor. 29. Because I've heard other Republicans have been waiting to run for governor in 29. So I don't think he's going to make that choice yet. But I think that I think Youngkin's political career is not over. And I wouldn't be surprised if he either ran for the Senate or ran for President because I think that he's exploring both I think that it's just a question of when and where, how, when and who. So that's my little insight of that. Thank you though for this question. Love getting them. I will be back again on Monday so please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast wherever you get your podcast and make sure you don't miss an episode. It means a lot to me and it helps my with this podcast. So thank you guys again and I'll speak to you on Monday.

[Lenovo]

Lenovo is built for creators who don't wait for inspiration. They chase it with inventive tech built in AI tools and seamless performance. Lenovo devices powered by Intel Core Ultra processors are designed to bring your wildest ideas to life faster. That's the power of Lenovo with Intel inside. Enjoy flexible financing, rewards on every purchase and free shipping. And students get special offers when you create an [e-mail].

[Ryan Seacrest]

It is Ryan Seacrest here. There was a recent social media trend which consisted of flying on a plane with no music, no movies, no entertainment. But a better trend would be going to chumbacasino.com it's like having a mini social casino in your pocket. Chumba casino has over 100 online casino style games, all absolutely free. It's the most fun you can have online and on a plane, so grab your free welcome bonus [e-mail] sponsored by Chumba Casino.

[Jacob Goldstein]

No purchase necessary. VGW Group Void where prohibited by law 21 + terms and conditions apply.

[Zachary Denini]

This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com from coast to coast.

[Chumba Casino]

Unlock adventure at Red Lion Hotels by Sonesta where restful sleep, friendly service and local knowledge await. Whether for business or pleasure. Spend less and make more of every trip. When you sign up for the Sinesta Travel Pass, you'll get their best rates instantly. Go to sinesta.com to book your stay and unlock their best rates with Sinesta Travel Pass here today, Rome tomorrow. Join [e-mail] terms and conditions apply.

[Sonesta]

You ever feel that deep pull to the land to know it. To build something that lasts, that itch for your own wild country. Well, it ain't just a daydream in 2025, it matters more than ever. Whether you're a lifelong hunter or just starting out dreaming of land to explore, to leave something real. Or there is a trailhead where you can start. It's called land.com the biggest online network for rural property. Find the right agent and explore everything from timber tracks to ranches. Get the tools you need to buy that dream generational property. Stop dreaming about it and head to land.com it's your place to find your open space.

[Ryan Gradusky]

This is an I Heart podcast.