← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: The Trump Vote the Media Missed with Batya Ungar-Sargon
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- [00:00]
Ryan
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Batya Unger Sargon
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Ryan
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- [02:08]
Batya Unger Sargon
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Ryan
Like Clorox and feels like y. Okay we could be here all day. Try Cloro Rock Scentiva for a trusted clean with long lasting freshness. Also available in lavender and coconut. News as directed. Welcome to a numbers game podcast. Thank you guys again for being here over another week. My episode earlier in the week on Monday on Polling was a big hit with listeners. A lot of people found it super interesting. I think going on to the campaign season further. We've a lot more episodes like that. We're going to be talking about the roundup of Trump's first 100 days and then upcoming elections in New York City, Virginia, New Jersey, all leading up to the 2026 midterms. I know that seems very far away, but it will go by fast. It'll be go by in a blink of an eye. And we hope that you this will be the podcast for everyone interested in elections and data and what's coming up. So please like and subscribe if you can. All right. Interesting poll came out over the course of the week and it was from Yale, the Yale Youth Poll. And it looked at 4,100 people between the ages of 18 to 29 and it found that vot between the ages of 18 to 21, looking at the upcoming 2026 midterm elections were the most Republican of any voter they were going to vote by for Republicans by a 12 point margin while voters between the ages of 22 and 29 were voting Democrat by six points. They were the I think they were the most Democratic or the second most Democratic. That is a tremendous shift. That is a shift that we saw in the 2024 elections and it shows that Trump was really the catalyst or part of the reason that there was a generational change. I think a lot of it was Covid. I think the lockdowns really affected this demographic the way that the Iraq War affected my generation, the way that Vietnam affected the boomer generation, the way that, you know, the, I don't know, the Internet or the Reagan era, rather the Reagan era affected Gen Xers. I think that this was Covid was a defining issue that turned a lot of young people into irregardless of other things that would make them Democrats into Republicans. So that was very, very, very interesting. We'll see if it continues into the 2026 midterm elections. Republicans are climbing uphill in the midterm elections because of just it's the Republicans control the White House and the Congress and typically in historical references the opposing party usually wins the House representatives. That only hasn't happened I think since 2, except for 2002. So it's been quite some time and 911 had just happened. So I think that possible way that Republicans might see some surprising victories of young people actually show up and turn out and go vote. They don't have the best history of voting, but who knows? This could be the year that everything happens. Another interesting thing also came out today was from not today. This week rather was from the Amherst poll was an Amherst YouGov poll. And they asked voters, if you had the opportunity to change your vote, would you? Because we see this through the mainstream media all the time. Oh, these Republicans, there's these Trump voters, they're just, they're agonizing. They're so upset that they voted for Trump. They can't believe it. They're so popular, apologetic. They're on their hands and knees at, you know, the front of the office of MSNBC and CNN saying, please forgive us for our sins. Well, they found that University of Amherst YouGov poll found that only 2% of Trump voters from the 2024 election said that they regret their vote and would change it. 2% is not an army of people. It is not loads of people. It is not, you know, it is not what the media is making out to be. It is a very, very small fraction of Trump's very unique, large and different coalition that he built. He built on the backs of populism of the Maha moms and Make America Healthy Again. Moms. I actually don't like the phrase maha. But that, that movement that RFK did, that he brought into his coalition, bringing in interesting young people, having a young vice president, all of that stuff was his coalition. And it's for the most part holding. It's a question of will they vote. With me this week to talk about the Trump coalition and populism is the great writer Batya Unger Sargon. You've seen her everywhere. Her clips go viral constantly. She was on Bill Maher recently and that was huge. And she was out there defending Trump on the tariffs. We have a very interesting conversation coming up about populism, the Trump coalition and the future of the Republican Party. Please stay tuned. At Ameca Insurance, we know it's more than just a car. It's the two door coupe that was there for your first drive, the hatchback that took you cross country and back, and the minivan that tackles the weekly carpool for the cars you couldn't live without. Trust Amica Auto insurance. Amica Empathy is our best policy. Step into the world of power, loyalty and luck. I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse with family. Cannolis and spins mean everything. Now you want to get mixed up.
- [07:24]
Batya Unger Sargon
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- [07:25]
Ryan
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- [09:17]
Batya Unger Sargon
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- [09:25]
Ryan
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- [10:00]
Batya Unger Sargon
Thank you so much for having me. I am a huge, huge Ryan Stan. I would even say, I would go so far as to say so. This is a real pleasure. It's been so exciting watching this podcast absolutely blow up. You deserve it and everywhere you go, smart things are said and narratives are blown up and you're just not afraid to say the truth. So thank you.
- [10:22]
Ryan
There's anyone who's blind narratives, it's you on especially when you are on Bill Maher. That went viral as anything where you sat there and said, I am from the left and Donald Trump is my candidate. And I think he was. You think that he was expecting you to say, oh, I'm, you know, oh, I understand your opinion now. Or like, because I think he basically was like, oh, that doesn't make any sense. Do you think that you were going to win him along for that?
- [10:45]
Batya Unger Sargon
He was clearly expecting me to say what all of the conservatives on his show seemed to say, which is like, you know, yeah, we're Republicans. We don't like the far left, we don't like the wokeness, but we really don't like Trump either. And I was like, no, I am on the left and I really love Trump. I'm a MAGA lefty and here are all the reasons why. And I felt like he was sort of like he wanted to understand me, but I think more than that, he wanted to want to understand me, but what he really wanted to do was make fun of me. And so he sort of was went back and forth between those two. It was actually a really nice conversation. But the thing I learned from that is there's a narrative being fed to people on the left and to Democrats mostly by like CNN and msnbc, which is that Trump voters, like, regret it. You know, like, they'll find like, the one Trump voter, you know, who's like, oh, this is not what I vote for, voted for, and like, have them on like every single day. And meanwhile we're out here being like, I cannot believe how well this is going. Like, I did not know a person could work this hard or a person could keep so many promises. Like, it's just like that split screen between what they think we're feeling and what we're actually feeling is real and it's deep. And they're like sitting there like, like in this fantasy, right? Like that there's all of this regret and they're just setting themselves up to fail, I think, like, again and again and again.
- [12:10]
Ryan
Right. And I mentioned earlier in the podcast with the unit, there's a University of Amherst poll, that University of Amherst Yuga poll That said only 2% of Trump supporters said they would vote for a different candidate given the opportunity. Which if you watched. I don't watch CNN anymore, not since I've not been on it. But if you watched the mainstream, even left on, on Twitter, they had this belief that there is just, you know, bread lines full of, you know, Trump supporters and who are like, oh, man, I got it wrong this time, you know, and I have not found it in my regular life. There are moments of frustration with Trump because I think part of, part of the problem is he tends to be all things to all people. So you don't always know what you're going to get. And there are times where I don't. You know, I'm like, oh, well, I'm not really down with that one, like on the gold cards. But there are. But I would trade all of that for the anti DEI stuff, for the immigration stuff. And I was, when I was coming up of age, I was 18 years old, I was registered Democrat. I registered Democrat because I opposed the Iraq war. That was my issue. I was opposed Iraq war and I was against amnesty for illegal immigrants. Those are the only two worldviews I even had, only two political opinions I had. And so I think I was a Democrat for like a year. And I was like, well, this is not going to work out. But, but I understand that voter, though, who of coming of age. We're not that different in age, you and I, who during the Bush years really were like, this was not for me. And to, I think, people a little older than us who are frozen more in time and think of the Republican Party as still the party of evangelical Christians from the Bush e. They don't even know how to frame the arguments anymore. Do you find the same thing?
- [14:05]
Batya Unger Sargon
Oh, yeah, absolutely. Yeah. It's so wild how nimble Republican voters have proven to be in accommodating the enthusiasm of younger people in the Republican Party and saying, okay, yeah, failed wars. We're going to be anti war, you know. Oh, yeah, okay. The social conservatism is a bit much for the younger generation. We'll be moderates, you know, oh, free trade. Wow, that really didn't work out. And now there are all these working class people who look to us as a home, maybe we should deliver for them. And meanwhile, how stuck in the past the Democrats have been, I don't think it's real on their part because I think that they know that they lost labor, they know that they lost the working class, and they know what they did to lose them, which is they made this sort of deal with the devil with the credentialed class and the sort of NGO Soros world. Right. All of whom endorse these vanity morals because they're so wealthy. So they sort of traded up in their view. But they can't admit that because to admit that would be to admit that they're the party of the rich. It's so funny. I was talking to somebody the other day in a green room, and he said, well, you know, I'm sort of like a classical, like, I want, you know, free trade and I want us to stand with our allies. And, you know, I'm sort of a classical Republican. And I said to him, you know, in two years, you'll be able to vote for a Democrat and feel really good about yourself, because that's really what the Democratic Party now stands for, right? Is like foreign intervention, massive funding of American exceptionalism, regime change, and free trade with China. Whereas it's the Republicans who have proven really nimble and able under, you know, the auspices of Donald Trump, to sort of change. There are a few. I don't like the gold card either, but I've had the opposite reaction to where I've had experiences where I'm like, you know, he's probably not going to be great on this, and then he'll turn around and be great on it. Like, I don't know if you read the report from Axios from Mark Caputo that came out that when Trump heard that Elon Musk was supposed to be in that briefing on China, Trump actually said, what the f is Elon doing here? Make sure he doesn't go.
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Ryan
I read that Twitter, when you tweeted that, that's how I found that story. I literally read it.
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Batya Unger Sargon
Deal. Like, he, he really understands the conflict of interest that Elon Musk has. People don't this because they see, oh, Tesla, like, you know, they're made, you know, 87% are made in America. Well, that's true of the cars that are sold here, but most Teslas are not sold in America, and every Tesla that's not sold in America is made 100% in China. In Shanghai, Elon Musk had a choice to make his European and Chinese sold cars here, and he chose instead to make them in China. And Donald Trump 100% understands that Elon Musk's fortune exists at the largesse of Xi Jinping. And so I, I was very, very heartened to see that reporting.
- [17:03]
Ryan
I have found that, I mean, there are. When I have criticism of the Trump administration overall, a lot of times it's through a communication issue where I sometimes don't think that they're that clear with their goals. I think with the tariffs, they could have been a lot clearer as to what the goals are. Because Americans are willing to make sacrifices. But you need to be very articulate in what you are asking people to sacrifice and why and what the intended outcome is. And it was a little messy. And I don't think that the, I think the could have been better. I agree with the sentiment and the idea. And I also think there's just more than one way to really nail down that issue than was being then was being done if it's to bring back manufacturing. One of the easiest things I've said, and I've written an article about this with American Conservative, is that we spend billions of dollars in the Pentagon on pharmaceutical drugs. It's one of the biggest buyers of pharmaceutical drugs in the entire country. We buy from China. Why, why doesn't the Pentagon say we're going to give a federal contract to people who make ibuprofen or anti inflammatory drugs or you know, any kind of drugs, but exclusively made in America. And we could even do what Joe Biden was trying to do with some of his stuff, which was place based economics, where we say, and preferably the contract has to be made in Wisconsin or in Michigan or wherever, places that have been affected negatively by the WTO stuff and China, stuff like that's a very less, I don't say it's easy, but it's less intrusive to the market than tariffs would be. And it would be part of a more cohesive package if it was all brought together. Do you understand what I'm saying?
- [18:41]
Batya Unger Sargon
I do, yeah. I kind of, I kind of, I thought the cast was kind of very important because like the way I see what Trump is trying to do is he doesn't actually want these huge tariffs on the eu. What he wants from them is a commitment to buy what America is going to start producing. And I think what he's trying to organize is a kind of soft embargo on China, like a global embargo. In order for this whole thing to work, we need partners because we're going to start wanting to sell. He wants basically for us to be able to sell more to our allies and buy less from China. And the way that I think he went about that was he sort of like picked up a baseball bat and sort of moseyed on over to the global stock market and basically said to the global elites, that's a really nice stock market you've got. It would be a shame if anything happened to it. And he had to prove that he was willing to break somebody's leg in order for it to have teeth. And now, you see, like, I think he did pivot. I think initially he was sort of thinking he was buying the. Well, actually, this is what I really think happened. I'm curious if you agree with me. I think he thought that the Navarro angle on the tariffs, the idea that they would raise revenue, which is not historically something Trump has said about it, because he doesn't believe the debt ceiling is real and he doesn't really care about the deficit. But I think, you know, he thought that the Navarro angle here, that these tariffs would generate revenue, would help pass the reconciliation bill because it would help sort of convince recalcitrant Republicans that there was going to be another stream of revenue to make up for the fact that they were going to have to raise the debt ceiling. And I think when he figured out that actually was hurting that exact thing, he went sort of, he leaned harder on Besant and the Besant argument, which is like, look, this is just unfair. We can't, you know, the national security argument, the idea that we're being screwed, you know, all this other stuff that Trump has been saying for a very long time. So I think that the messiness was like part of what made this. Actually, it was both a reflection of a very healthy conversation that's happening within the administration that it isn't like in lockstep. But also I think it ended up being pretty effective. You know, would these 130 countries be begging for a deal if Trump hadn't literally like crashed the stock market? And joyously. I mean, he did it with such like, he was so confident about it. The way that he pulled that, it was like, I don't know, there was something about that. I just kept thinking like, you know, in 2008, as a senator, President Obama, I guess then Senator Barack Obama rallied the troops around the $700 billion bailout of the banks while 10 million Americans went homeless. Those 10 million Americans had to watch as those same crooks who organized the entire global crisis collected $30 billion in taxpayer funded bonuses. Obama as president walked in and said, we're saving Wall street and screw Main Street. You will go homeless and you won't get a penny from us. And what we just saw Trump do was the exact opposite. He gave the middle finger to Wall street and said, I don't work for you. And I think that that message, I mean, it just, I think it really resonated.
- [21:59]
Ryan
Yeah, I think that, I think there's a couple of things. So, yeah, partially I agree with you. I think that Trump's madman approach to foreign policy Both military and trade is part of the reason people are not willing to screw around him the way they were with Joe Biden or Barack Obama, who they thought were weak. I mean, like just, they just didn't respect them in the same way. Although they have high favorable opinions because they listen to the right music, they don't. Or they go to the right opera, or they speak the right way. They don't actually think that they're strong leaders and they don't have faith that they would actually step up. They think that Trump's a madman and they're afraid. You know, no one steps on Superman's cape, especially when he's angry. So I think that's part of it. But I think that if the goal was to reduce trade barriers, to have a more equal trading playing field with the eu, with Vietnam, with other countries, I think that there, if that's the end goal, then it'll be a great end goal. Right? That'll be a fantastic end goal is if the end goal is reassuring manufacturing, that's also a great angle. If the end goal is kind of to roll back the last 30 years, it's a great end goal. I don't know how you really get there, though. But it, but it kind of was like they're all our end goal. Well, which one is it first? And I don't really know how you can. And I think the chaos of the different messaging made investors shaky. And the problem also is you have a lot of tech stocks that were way overvalued and you have. And so they were like, they were, they were shedding their stock holdings and using this tariffs as the excuse. But they were, I mean, they were way overvalued for quite some time. So you had a kind of a perfect storm that really made people lose faith that Trump could turn around the economy. I think that that has, I think, listen, if there's any time you want to do it in an administration, it's now, not in the summer, not next year, not when the midter coming up so that hopefully the economy improves. If in 90 days Trump walks up with, you know, Ursula Van Loosen, whatever her last name is, from the EU and the President of Vietnam over, that is. And the Australia, not Australian, but the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer or somebody else and says no tariffs on any of these people, we're having a united free trade thing, they're going to buy American goods that will absolutely ruin, cause a bonanza on Wall street. And then. But they have to sit there, make some kind of agreement with China and the EU is notoriously weak when it comes to both Russia and China. Despite what their image is, they're terribly weak on it. I will say the one thing I'm, I don't want to say I'm hopeful for, but I'm, I'm, I'm fascinated that these are coming out of the admin is the willingness to increase the time top, top bracket of income to 39.6% from 37%, letting the old tax cuts expire that 2.6% in exchange for no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security. David Shore, the Democratic data analyst, said the best attack line for the Trump against Republicans is tax tax cuts for the wealthy. The worst attack line and the best attack line, rather Republicans have, is no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security. And I think that becoming an economic centrist, which is what the Republican Party is doing, that's attracting voters like you, this is really, I think, I think that's the way forward for a midterm election strategy, is offering tax cuts on Social Security and no tax on tips, and that would in exchange for a 2.6% increase on the wealthy to make it more balanced. Do you agree?
- [25:35]
Batya Unger Sargon
I would love to see that. I do think what Trump is thinking is he has to combine the tariffs and the tight labor market he created by controlling the border with some sort of pro business goodies on the other end. And I think deregulation is to that end. Cheap energy. Drill, baby, drill. But I think the tax cuts were kind of part of that as well in his mind. I mean, that's how I kind of justify it. Like, he wants a roaring economy that lifts all boats and this sort of pro worker stuff is huge. And so that's kind of, you know, I see the rationale for it in that bucket. But I like what you're saying, and I would obviously prefer that on the foreign policy thing. I was once on the subway in New York and something happened to me and I was like, this explains Trump's foreign policy so well. So I was sitting there and there was a guy sitting across from me who was like a little crazy. You know, like the kind of thing you see almost every time you get on the subway twitching and like, you.
- [26:30]
Ryan
Know, the mild, peaceful craziness.
- [26:32]
Batya Unger Sargon
Yeah, exactly. Like a mild peaceful, you know, like kind of. Yeah, exactly. Like twitchy and talking to himself and like, you know, making all sorts of facial expressions, having, you know, like a little, you know, grand old time and then the doors open and someone really crazy got on, like, one of these really crazy people, where you're like, oh, God, please don't let this person look at me. Like, I. That mildly crazy person, Boy, did he clean up his act quickly. He sat there like this, and sudden. If I had gotten on after the really crazy person got on, I never would have known there was anything wrong with him. He sat up straight. He was looking down. He stopped his twitching. He stopped talking to himself. He stopped singing because he was like, like, wow, there's an actually really crazy person here. I better not draw his attention. And I feel like this is, like, the exact perfect metaphor to explain Trump's foreign policy. You always want to be the most unpredictable person when you're dealing with people who are unpredictable, because, like, you said, like, that is how you get their respect. And I have to say, it has been one of the most validating experiences. I think of my life as an American, to watch the same people who mocked Trump and sneered at him and made fun of him and laughed at him get on their knees and crawl over into the throne room and start begging him for, like, an ounce of approval. I just can't get enough of it. And I don't know if you feel the same way, but it's just like, I just. You love to see it. It's like. It's like an 80s, like, feel good, you know, like redemption arc. I love it.
- [28:08]
Ryan
I mean, there are times. I mean, big tech people make me nervous who are all doing that. Can I just wait, Parsa, for one second? I want to say my favorite mildly crazy subway story person. One time, I was on the subway, and a lady. I was having a very rough day. I remember it very distinctly. And a lady looked at me and said, you look nice today. And I felt so. I was like, wow, this is like, the greatest thing ever. And then I said, oh, thank you. And then she goes, no, not you. The person behind you. And there was. And there was no one behind me. There wasn't a soul behind me. And then she started talking to her invisible friend, and I was like, I'm still taking that compliment. Like, I'm gonna live on that for quite a number of years. Oh, that is totally what happened when I was like. I think it was, like, 22 or 21. I'm still living on that compliment 15 years later. The. Yeah, I, I, I, I. I'm a little hesitant with some people, like, Bergs of the World coming into, like, the picture and being and. And saying, oh, no, we love you now, by the way, please reduce the Amount the FTC is trying to sit there and find us from like 30 billion to 700 million. That makes me nervous. I, I, and there are times I hope Trump sticks to his guns. He has an immigration he has on, he has on the tariff stuff. He has, I mean we'll see what the judges look like. I imagine they'll be pretty good. I really hope if Trump, I said this before, if Trump gets the birthright citizenship removed for non citizens, it will be. I don't care if he sits at home eating Big Macs for the rest of the entire presidency. I believe this is the greatest president who ever lived. So.
- [29:43]
Batya Unger Sargon
Okay, I want to ask what, on.
- [29:45]
Ryan
What matters to me he has delivered and I think that's what the media cannot understand. Like why aren't you outraged all the time about everything thing? Because what matters to most people is just the big picture. And he on that point, I mean, yeah, the stock market's a little shaky, but he's delivered more than he hasn't. And we haven't had a leader for four years who delivered at all and in fact felt like we were attacking us as garbage in the case of Joe Biden or you know, being openly hostile to anything we've had. And the Democratic Party whose whole political strategy is, is decreasing people to the lowest possible value. Women are only their, you know, their sex organs or the possibly having children, you know, LGB people are only trans fear mongering over, over same sex marriage or, or you know, black people are just the color of their skin or Hispanic or just whether or not they know someone who's legally or illegal in the country, it's always the lowest competent dominant denominator.
- [30:47]
Batya Unger Sargon
Politics.
- [30:47]
Ryan
Politics. And I will say like Bernie Sanders doesn't always do that. Fetterman doesn't always do that. They don't all always do that. But that has been the common ring from the Democratic Party, which why I think people really don't have a fond opinion of them. And what we're getting to back to before is, you know, we're talking about people who grew up during the Bush era, people who, people who now like are millennials sliding into middle age like myself and we, we are people perceive that those life experiences are what has trickled down to younger people. But for younger people, for people 18 to 21 and under 30, their life exp. Under 25, really their life experience was the COVID lockdowns. Their life experience was no prom, no graduation, no sporting events, no nothing, depression or all the rest of it because of Democratic policies that they can't get back. And that anger, I think will. Will possibly fuel them, you know, the same way that Bush's, you know, wars fueled millennials for last 20 years.
- [31:57]
Batya Unger Sargon
I think that's a really interesting point. I wanted to ask your opinion about something that I have been noticing, and I'm very curious if you agree with me on, which is in the question of like, succession. I feel like everybody thinks it's going to be J.D. vance, but I, I think like, as someone coming, you know, from the MAGA left, like somebody who like, has, I think, a very clear sense of who the people are who gave Trump the victory, who like, joined the movement as well as just the kind of like, normie Republican voter today. I think that the Republicans are in danger of misunderstanding what Trump got right. And I think JD Kind of represents that.
- [32:48]
Ryan
Really?
- [32:49]
Batya Unger Sargon
Yeah.
- [32:50]
Ryan
Well, who would you, who would you say would be like, the success? Well, first, why do you think that he misunderstands that? And who would you think the successor?
- [32:56]
Batya Unger Sargon
Okay, so I think that Trump very successfully neutralized the abortion issue, not by not talking about it, but by talking about it in a very specific way. So it was my experience when I was reporting my book Second Class, I was just traveling around the country interviewing working class people from both parties. And what I heard from like the vast majority of the women that I interviewed, whether they were Republicans or Democrats, was basically some version of, I would never get an abortion because I think it's wrong, but I would never judge another woman who was put in the horrible position of having to choose that. And I think we've seen the ballot measures to ban abortion fail even in red states. And I think that position, it's a kind of like pro life, but anti ban, like an extreme tolerance, while also like having a very moral. You know, people like that would show up as pro life life in polls, but I think that they feel very strongly the anti ban piece of that. And Trump made it very clear that he sort of agreed with them. I mean, he kept saying he supports the exceptions. He has said before that he supports abortion for 12 weeks. He says we should be more like Europe. He says that. That he would. He said again and again that he would veto a national abortion ban. And he really made no compunction about quite significantly sidelining and marginalizing and even making fun of Project 20, which was what the Democrats tried to saddle him with as this kind of extremist, you know.
- [34:35]
Ryan
And you don't think JD does that?
- [34:37]
Batya Unger Sargon
JD Supports a national abortion ban. He said that. And I think he's quite vulnerable on that because he's a Catholic and he really believes that. He said repeatedly that he would support a national abortion ban, that he thinks it should be illegal.
- [34:49]
Ryan
On the 2022 Senate campaign you're talking about, he was.
- [34:53]
Batya Unger Sargon
He said it on multiple interviews.
- [34:55]
Ryan
Okay. I'm just trying to think of a time frame because that's when I worked on his campaign, but I worked on the PAC side, so I wasn't. I don' that I think.
- [35:03]
Batya Unger Sargon
And I. And on. So on the. On the social issues, I think he's very vulnerable. On the foreign policy, I think that he represents. People think Trump's an isolationist, but he really isn't. He has this peace through strength idea. He's a lot like Tulsi Gabbard. Like, she hates terrorists. There's nothing she won't do to a terrorist, but she thinks if you haven't threatened America in a significant way, you're not our business and you're not our problem. JD Is an isolationist. So then on the foreign policy, he's quite different from Trump. On the trade thing, he's very good. I think he's solidly there. But if I would have to say who is a person in Trump's cabinet who is much more aligned with him on all three of those issues, foreign policy, economic policy, and social policy, I would say it's Marco Rubio. And I don't know why people aren't. Am I totally wrong? I could be totally off about this, but it's something I'm going to wrong.
- [35:52]
Ryan
I will say, okay, so one odd. So I'll tell you a story that I've never told anyone. So I had a European trip planned post election. I was like, I was so burnt from the election, I'm going away. I booked this like seven months in advance. Like, I don't care who wins at this point. I am going away. And as I'm getting on the plane, like, literally about to board the plane to go to the destination. I was going to Spain, going to Spain, I get a text from my friend Meghan McCain, and Meghan's like, hey, would you talk to Tulsi for a second about her meeting with Trump and some ideas and just bouncing off ideas. And I'm literally like walking on the line. I'm like, tulsi, listen, you can't ask for multiple different things you have to say to the president. I want one. And I'm. I can't help but be one. Use my hands when talking because I'M Italian and to be way too loud. And I'm sure that people like checking my ticket were like this crazy person thinks he's talking. It's all C. Gabbard but true story. But Tulsi and JD are very similar in their foreign policy. Very, very similar in their foreign policy. And they're allies within the admin from what I understand in, in that. So I don't think that they're that far of a stretch. I like Marco Rubio a lot. I know Marco Rubio's chief. I've spoken to Marco Rubio I think at least one time, maybe twice, but definitely one time. And I. And I see that Marco Rubio is a man who has evolved and changed a lot over time and the man who he was in his early for when he was the wunderkin freshman senator that should be president immediately. Super Neoconservative is slightly different. I read his last book on, on. I don't know if you read it, but it was on trade and foreign policy and the working class and he got a lot right. But when he was talking about foreign policy, the one thing that was very jarring to me was all about hawkish towards China and the entire Middle east was missing. It's as if Middle Eastern conflict never happened. When it was the most, most probably the most defining thing of my late teens, early 20s. I don't know, I don't know how if he just wants that issue to not be the main focus or whatever or if he's farly changed on it, but it was very obvious that it was completely missing from any foreign policy conversations. But he's great on China, great on immigration.
- [38:18]
Batya Unger Sargon
He's taken on a real, you know, he's, he, he's been the one kind of defending all these deportations in a very deport.
- [38:25]
Ryan
What I would like to know from Marco Rubio and I would. And I like Marco Ruby. So it's not a criticism overall, but I just want, I would love to ask him how many immigrants do you think should come to the United States every year? I think that every politician should be have to answer that question if they're going to run for federal offices. How many? Give me a physical number because right now we have a number. Don't say, well, if the market decide. No, you have to decide by a number. That's the number that comes in. Pick a number. Just pick any number. And to me, legal immigration in 2025 should be safe, legal and rare. That is my opinion. It is the same abortion opinion that the Democrats had in the 90s. So you can use that line if you want it next interview you have. But I, I believe that, and I don't know if he believes that. I will say, as far as succession goes, there's only ever been one vice president in both the Democrat and Republican parties who pursued the nomination for presidency and did not receive the nomination, and that was Mike Pence in 2024, was the first time that's ever happened. And that was if that was because of Donald Trump. And had Donald Trump not run, Pence would have done significantly better. I mean, had 2020 not happened, he would have definitely, probably done significantly better. But that is, that's the case where I don't see there would be, you know, unless, unless a calamity happened. The odds, if JD Wants to run, the odds of him not being the nominee are fairly small. Now, he will sink or swim on his own accord, by his own ticket, by his own nomination. And I'm sure he'll do some things like Trump and some things not like Trump or, you know, in deference to him, but a little different, and he'll have his own evolution and other issues will come up over time that will matter. I think that, I think that Trump's coalition is very unique. And I think the groups that he really should be doubling down on, aside from young people that have brought into the party and some. And Latinos, especially multi generational Latinos and white working class, she brought in. I really think it is the people who are the crunchy liberals. Like, I've got an aunt who was, you know, registered Democrat, voted for both parties, but more Democrat than Republican. But she voted for Trump primarily because she was supported rfk. And I know I have a friend who has not voted for Republicans since John McCain. And she voted for, she voted. She, she hates Trump, but I think she did vote for him because of rfk, because she's so concerned over food and she's got two young boys. I think that that is a demographic. I mean, the media can mock it and make fun of it, but I know so many. If you go on Instagram, I mean, there are the number of people giving like health food advice out and health advice out is. I mean, there's an entire underground economy of people doing this because people are there. And people look at Europe and they say, okay, they all smoke, but they're all living longer than us. So is it that you can smoke cigarettes and not eat junk food? And then there's Donald Trump, but you could eat junk food, but not Smoke cigarettes. What is going on? Where there is this lifestyle imbalance and how do we fix it? And why do. Why when I go to Europe, does the food just. Or not just Europe, but Canada, Israel, a bunch of places. But why does the food. Food genuinely tastes better? Why is it more filling? Why do I not have, like, hunger crunches? What is going on? I, when I, after my trip to Europe, when I came back, I was like, I'm hungry all the time and I'm definitely eating more than I ate there. Why is this happening? So there's, there's that big question. I think that that is the group. But as far as, like the social conservatives and, and foreign policy, I think JD Is more in line with Trump than, than other people, than people think, you know, although he's obviously a fairly devout Catholic who converted to the religion, you know, so, I mean, I don't know. That's what I think. I don't think that there's, there was probably anyone who would take that mantle if JD Wanted to pick it up.
- [42:27]
Batya Unger Sargon
See, what you laid out about RFK Jr. Is exactly what bothers me about him because I feel like he takes advantage of poor people. Like, if you took poor people out of the equation, Americans are much healthier than every other country. It's a very specific population population that has all the diabetes and all of the heart problems and all of the obesity. And it's because they're poor and so they don't have time to cook and work out the way that rich people do in order to stay healthy. And I think that RFK Jr gives hope to people like, can you imagine being like a working class mom working two jobs and having a severely autistic child and other children that you're trying to take care of, like, while having absolutely no money and absolutely no time and no support system? And like, it's, it's unbearable to consider. And instead of being like, okay, what are we doing as a society like that, such that, you know, this person who could have very easily supported a family if she was working as a manicurist in the 70s, you know, now is like struggling so much. He came out and said, oh, well, it's Big Pharma. It's like the color of the dye in the food. You know what I mean? It's like, you look at poor people in America who are like, really, really sick. And it's all like, it's all kind of. In certain populations, if you take them out, out, like, we're very healthy.
- [43:45]
Ryan
Obesity is very confined to Black people and to Hispanics and to poor whites, that's 100% true. But at the same time, rich, he.
- [43:52]
Batya Unger Sargon
Doesn'T know anybody like that. He only knows.
- [43:55]
Ryan
I mean, but. But I think the bigger part is, though, but I want to say two things. One, our thinnest state today, which is Colorado, is fatter than our fattest state in 1990. And that's not all Big Pharma, that's not all food, that's not all everything. It's a lot of choices a lot of people made over time. But that is true. And I don't know why we have, like, red dye number two was banned from makeup in the 1990s, early 90s.
- [44:22]
Batya Unger Sargon
I support everything that he's doing under the auspices of, like, the Trump restraints. Like, yeah, that, that's great. I mean, I support that. I don't want red dye in my food. I don't understand. Like, I support all the healthy stuff. It's just like you, if you would fix the economy, people would be much healthier.
- [44:36]
Ryan
You're saying, don't give poor people the dreams of they're all going to be super healthy tomorrow by, you know, making. If you, you know, I agree with.
- [44:43]
Batya Unger Sargon
That 110% conspiracy stuff around vaccines, I think is horrible. Like, and the fact that he made $2 million off of getting people to sign up for stuff that said vaccines cause autism. And like, I feel like I agree.
- [44:56]
Ryan
With you, 100% agree with you on that. A lot of it is personal choices that people are making. No, I do. I completely agree with you. I read a book about him, and there were two books about him, actually, and there was like, some choices that he made in his life were very questionable that I did not. I was like, oh, this man probably should be president. I. His divorce, his first divorce was really, really ugly. I. And a lot ugly on his part. But I, I think that I. It's just there is a health problem in our country where people are just chronically ill. And yeah, a lot of it is because you're eating garbage and it's convenient for you and it's easy.
- [45:36]
Batya Unger Sargon
We don't have preventative medicine. I think that's another thing is, like, doctors don't get paid for preventative services. They do in Europe. And so people go to see the doctor twice a year and they have a relationship and things are caught earlier. And like, that would. That would make a huge difference. Just force Medicare to pay for preventative visits. Like, that would make a huge difference. But that's not the Kind of thing that like anybody sort of talking about it, I think health care is like, it's. It basically, like, it's a really big deal. It's the only thing the Democrats, like, have like a claim to. I'm not saying they're like, doing well on.
- [46:12]
Ryan
You're right, you're right.
- [46:13]
Batya Unger Sargon
But like, so I think that that's. And I think Trump understood that because he's brilliant understanding what the electorate wants. And he sort of slotted RFK Jr into that position, which I think was very smart. Like, helped him a lot in terms of winning. But, like, I just wish there was another. I love that he picked a liberal for that. I just wish it had been a different one.
- [46:34]
Ryan
Yeah, I think that they're. I think. But what we're talking about is two different types of voters. Like my friend who, like, hated Trump but voted for him because of rfk. She's not a lower income person. She's a higher income person and she's like a suburban mom who would be. She's just. I mean, she would put her kids in a bubble if she could. She's just that kind of person. I think the workingclass person. And I know a lot of them who are frankly overweight or don't live the healthiest lifestyles. I don't think they voted for Trump for that reason because I'm not sure they think that it's. What's going on there is wrong. And I think to improve their life, you kind of have to do things like why is soda on food stamps? Why do we put corn syrup still on our things that should have sugar in them? Or, you know, other things like that, or how much sugar we take into our diets is literally astronomical.
- [47:24]
Batya Unger Sargon
Literally.
- [47:25]
Ryan
I think that the people who voted for him are the wealthier ones, not the poorer one.
- [47:28]
Batya Unger Sargon
Right. The Maha moms. Yeah. Megan McCain talks about them. Very compelling pro tip. It's Passover right now, which means that Coke is making the Passover Coke. So Jews can't eat corn on Pass. Some Jews, Sephardic Jews can. Ashkenazi Jews don't eat corn on Passover, which means that they make a Coke just for us because we drink so much freaking Coke. And they make it with sugar, with cane sugar the way they make it in other countries, as opposed to making it with corn syrup. And you can walk into any kosher supermarket and get it. It has a yellow cap on the, on the Coke and really kosher for Passover. And it's delicious. So everybody in Brooklyn who's not Jewish understands that this is the time that you go into the kosher store and you load up on Jew Coke because it tastes so much better. And just a pro tip, a free tip for all of your listeners.
- [48:22]
Ryan
I don't even drink soda, but I'm going to give it to my friends who do and be like, this is what real sugar tastes like. Because I did not. I never knew that. This is enlightening. This is. This is going to change. This is a game changer right now. Jew Coke is the way to go. All right, B. I've had you for long enough. Thank you so much for being on this podcast. Where can people read your stuff? Because they should. Everyone should be subscribing to whatever you do. Where should they? Where can they go?
- [48:51]
Batya Unger Sargon
So sweet. I don't really have something to plug right now. You could buy my book. Second, can I read the articles or.
- [48:57]
Ryan
Follow you on Twitter? Twitter.
- [48:58]
Batya Unger Sargon
You can follow me on Twitter at Bunger Sargon or on instagram @batia us. I write for the Free Press, so I guess you could read my articles there.
- [49:08]
Ryan
Yeah, share them and tell them that the Free Press, this is the best hire that they've ever had. So thank you so, so, so much. I really appreciate you.
- [49:17]
Batya Unger Sargon
Thank you.
- [49:18]
Ryan
So happy Passover and enjoy your Jew Coke. Hey, we'll be right back after this. At Ameca Insurance, we know it's more than just a car. It's the two door coupe that was there for your first drive. The hatchback that took you cross country and back. And the minivan that tackles the weekly carpool for the cars you couldn't live without. Trust Ameca Auto Insurance Amica. Empathy is our best policy.
- [49:54]
Batya Unger Sargon
Get this. Adults with financial literacy skills have 82%.
- [49:58]
Ryan
More wealth than those who don't. From swimming lessons to piano classes, us parents invest in so many things to enrich our kids lives.
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Batya Unger Sargon
But are we investing in their future financial success? With Greenlight, you can teach your kids financial literacy skills like earning, saving and investing.
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Ryan
And this investment costs less than that. After school treat start prioritizing their financial.
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Batya Unger Sargon
Education and future today with a risk.
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Ryan
Free trial@greenlight.com iheart greenlight.com iheart Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful beauty makes powerful and effective skin care simple. And it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types. And it's designed to work as a complete skin care system leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's full regimen which contains all five of her best selling products including the Amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next generation serum has the power of melon leaf stem cell technology. It's melon leaf stem cells encapsulated for freshness and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and you can get the Amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just $49.95. That includes our introductory five piece system, free gifts, free shipping and a 60 day money back guarantee. All that available@meaningful beauty.com.
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Batya Unger Sargon
Clorox and Teva smells like grapefruit, fruit.
- [51:35]
Ryan
Cleans like Clorox and feels like yay. Okay, we could be here all day. Try Clorox Sentiva for a trusted clean with long lasting freshness. Also available in lavender and coconut. Use as directed for some of us, personal finances aren't just personal. They include a lot more people than ourselves, loved ones, neighbors, the communities we call home, and the causes we hold in our hearts. At Thrivent, we help plan your financial picture with the bigger picture in mind. Because even though our business is helping guide your finances, our ambition is to make it mean so much more. Thrivent where money means more Connect with us@thrivent.com this brings us to the Ask Me Anything segment where I take questions from listeners about anything. If you want to write and be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, you can email ryan numbers game podcast.com that's Ryan numbers, plural. Numbers game podcast.com this email today comes from Jacob, who says, will Elise Stefanik do better as a governor candidate than Lee Zeldin if she runs in 2026? This is a great question. I'm from New York my entire life. I know New York state politics really, really well. So I'm really. I know this. This isn't a sports question. I can actually do this one. Okay, so let's look at 2022 for a second. In the 2022 election, New York Governor Kathy Hochul won by 6.4% of the vote. She won by about 380,000 votes. New York State. If you look at the state overall, which is kind of like a triangle with like a little islands, a couple islands that bounce off the end of it, the bottom end of it, New York State is really controlled by the lower nine counties, 56% of all the votes that Cast in New York State come from just not nine counties. That's Rockland, Westchester, the Bronx, Manhattan, Staten Island, Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau and Suffolk. The rest of the state, the Hudson Valley, upstate central and western New York only account for 44% and that 44% is shrinking as population loss is happening. Now there are only two counties in upstate New York that Stefanik would have more of an impact in because they, they went for Coco last time and her district is very close to them and or represents part of them them. But really the reason why Zeldin stood so well is because he was able to draw up huge numbers out of Long island where he represented in Congress and was a well known name in Long island and parts of New York City have had this transformation. You saw it in the last election in 2024 when President Trump won Long island and one Staten island ended very, very well. Throughout the rest of New York City as Hispanic and Asian voters really have left the Democratic Party in the city in droves. But the fight is in those lower nine counties. That's where this election will be won or lost. Lost. Hochul's entire margin of victory, as far as raw vote count goes, comes from just Brooklyn and Manhattan. Those two counties is what affected the entire state of New York. She couldn't have won without those two counties, without getting the vote margin she did of those counties. Now Zelda got an impressive 40.7% of the vote in those lower nine counties. That is impressive given how blue New York City is in general. But he really needed to get like 46% in order to win the election ever is challenging Hochul, Whether it be Stefanik or allegedly Mike Lawler or allegedly the. The county chairman of Nassau county is considered a running. The Republican county chairman of Nassau County, Bruce Blakeman is his name. They're all looking at running, but whoever is going to actually win is going to make inroads, further inroads than Long island and run up the score in Staten island and make up ground in southern Brooklyn, which has a lot of Republican areas that could still go even further. Republican Queens is just absolutely has tons of voters up for grabs. The Bronx, believe it or not, is now more Republican than Manhattan. The Bronx is more Republican than Manhattan and Queens is more Republican than Westchester. You could not have said that sentence 20 years ago. It is genuinely shocking how much the state has changed because how much Hispanic and Asian voters and some working class white voters who were still kind of on the fence have changed. But if you want a Republican governor, which is possible, it's difficult, but it's possible. You're gonna run up the numbers in Queens. You're gonna get over 40% in Queens, you're gonna run up into the mid-50s in Nassau county, close to 60 in Suffolk County. Continue to get over 60% in Staten Island. And then you really need to cross the 30, 30 something percent threshold over in Brooklyn and the Bronx. Probably mid 30s in Brooklyn and 30% in the Bronx. And that should do it. Rockland is a Republican county thanks to the orthodox Jewish vote with both. I think all three candidates actually are very close to. Blakeman is Jewish. Stefanik is, you know, the face of the fight against anti Semitism now in the, in the Congress. And Mike Lawler has deep connections with those, with those voters that he represents in Congress. So those are really the groups that you have to sit there and carve and build out the structure and then you just do well in upstate New York. Upstate New York's changing because a lot of Manhattanites, Brooklynites, they have left the state. They've left the city, rather, and they moved to the Hudson Valley during COVID That's turned the area more blue than it used to be. And a lot of refugee resettlement happened in that area in upstate New York and central New York. So upstate and central New York are not what they used to be. They're not as reliably Republican as they once were. The. The fight is really in the city and the city will change the state. So the city in the outer boroughs of the city of Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, those areas. So that's how you do it. You can get a Republican governor in New York. It is difficult, but the battle is won and lost in the most popularly dense, densely populated parts of the southern part of the state. Thank you so much for listening. This week's episode of the podcast. I hope that you enjoyed it. Please like and subscribe on the I Heart radio app Apple Podcasts. Wherever you get your podcast, we'll see you all next week.
- [57:45]
Batya Unger Sargon
For some of us, personal finances aren't just personal.
- [57:49]
Ryan
They include a lot more people than ourselves, loved ones, neighbors, the communities we.
- [57:55]
Batya Unger Sargon
Call home, and the causes we hold in our hearts.
- [57:58]
Ryan
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Batya Unger Sargon
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Ryan
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