← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: Trump’s Biggest 2026 Problem? Working-Class Voters Are Losing Patience
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- [00:00]
Bethenny Frankel
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Ryan Graduski
Guaranteed Human A burst pipe, a dead
- [00:07]
Jacob Goldstein
water heater, the AC calling it quits.
- [00:10]
Ryan Graduski
Who do you call?
- [00:11]
Jacob Goldstein
HomeServe is an easy way to handle unexpected home repairs with plans covering stuff basic homeowners insurance usually won't. Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the repair process started. Join the millions of customers who trust HomeServe right now. Go to HomeServe.com podcast for 50% less your first year. That's HomeServe.com podcast podcast savings compared to a renewal price void in Florida this is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive, and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single, affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting. All linked and talking to each other. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com your
- [01:19]
American Medical Association Announcer
social media feed delivers plenty of advice, but it doesn't know you. It doesn't ask questions. It doesn't give physical exams or order tests. Doctors do. At the American Medical association, we believe the best care starts with a real conversation, with someone who understands the science and your unique health. So stay curious, ask questions. But when it's time to make decisions, make them with a doctor. Learn more@amahealthvshype.org that's amahealthvshipe.org Most dog food
- [01:50]
Bethenny Frankel
brands don't really want you seeing how their food is made. Just food for dogs is the opposite. They actually invite you in. You can walk into any of their kitchens and see real human grade ingredients like chicken, beef, carrots and peas being prepared right in front of you. It's real food made in real kitchens. Nothing is hidden behind labels and that kind of transparency says a lot. Nothing to hide, everything to love. Go to justfoodfordogs.com and get 50% off your first order.
- [02:19]
Montucky Brand Representative
Hey guys, have you ever found yourself craving a cold snack?
- [02:23]
Cindy Crawford (Meaningful Beauty)
Yep.
- [02:24]
Montucky Brand Representative
Do you even know what a cold snack is? I do. Well, some of you may have noticed I've been wearing a Montucky shirt on the video version of the podcast. And that's because Montucky makes My favorite cold snack. That's right. It's a cold, snackable beer. And summer is the best time to enjoy it.
- [02:40]
Ryan Graduski
You're right, Ders. Montucky is a light American lager from Bozeman, Montana. It's snackable, shareable, and perfect for all occasions. Hey, that sounds like the dream beer to me. Go to montuckycoldsnacks.com snacks-finder to find Montucky cold snacks and a retailer near you. And if you're looking for some Montucky merch, use important snacks all one word for 20 off their merch store.
- [03:13]
Montucky Brand Representative
They got some cold horses on those cans.
- [03:15]
Ryan Graduski
Cold snacks. Welcome back to a numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you guys for being here. So I was reading the Sunday New York Times like I always do. It's one of my favorite things to do on Sundays is read the Sunday New York Times. But the physical print form, I just don't, I don't want to read on my phone. I want to read the actual paper. I have an order in of sections I read in order. So I always read the real estate section first because I'm like, let me see what the insane prices people are paying to live in the tri state area, to live in like a closet in New York City. And then I always go to the wedding section because what people write about themselves and their relationships makes me both laugh and nauseous at the same time. And then I make private predictions over which couples will end up in divorce court. Love doing that. And then I go to the obituaries, another favorite part of the newspaper for me. And then after that's all over, then I read the news. And this last Sunday, they mentioned something that I've been talking about for months from at least last November. And I know you're going to say, ryan, this is getting really freaky how you're able to pull the tea leaves. I know it is. But do you remember last November when the elections were happening in Virginia and New Jersey, there was this big talk out of the chattering class about the Latino vote and Latinos were leaving the GOP and they were going back to Hillary. Numbers of support. And it's all because of ICE and Trump's, you know, Trump's so bad on immigration that Hispanics are leaving this generational change that they were supporting Republicans for. And I kept on pointing out, well, that is true, but look at the other group that is leaving. It's not just Latinos, it's working class whites, because, and this is not to Be dismissive of the idea that no Latinos hate, you know, immigrant immigration enforcement. Some do, obviously, but if you look up the trends among working class whites in the New Jersey and Virginia governor's races was very similar to Latinos. Well, the New York Times has finally caught up. Their headline was Trump's Big new vulnerability in 2026. Blue collar whites by Shane Goldmacher. I think I know Shane. I've met him or talk to him. He seems like a decent journalist. Blue collar white voters are for the first time seriously doubting Mr. Trump's handling of the economy. A review of polling by the New York Times shows that extraordinary swing in the issue among white voters without a college degree between his first midterm election and now. Then working class whites approved of his management of the economy by 30 point margin or even more. Now, recent polls show that disapproving anywhere from 14 points to more than 30 points. Polls now regularly show that a majority of white voters who did not graduate from college no longer approve of Mr. Trump's handling of the economy. Examples are his low ratings in the Fox News poll, 33% approval, CBS News poll, 39% approval, NPR, PBS, Maris, 40%, CNN, 43%, and the New York Times, the Siena poll at 47%. Now, while polls have definitely gone down since the start of the Iran war and the rising gas prices and the rising food places and higher inflation, all the rest of it, those numbers were declining even last year when the New Jersey and Virginia governor's elections were happening. Trump's approval ratings was in the low to mid-50s at the time of those elections. Which is very crazy when you think that Trump won nearly two out of every three whites without a college degree in the 2024 election. That was, you know, only two years ago. That's a 20 point swing from that from that time in November 2024 to November 2025. But once again, they only brought up Latinos because it was an opportunity to bash Trump's immigration policy. That's all they cared about. That's why the news highlighted only Latinos during that entire time. You know, the news loves to shill out their left wing talking points through data. You know, and ironically, when they were screaming at the Latino vote over and over over again, they refused to acknowledge that Trump's immigration policy was wildly more popular than his, than his economic policy, his tariffs. They were actually. His immigration policy was. And his border policy certainly was the most popular thing that he had accomplished during his second term. It's like Crazy Town usa where they choose to give out as a narrative. And the population is the New York Times. But it makes sense when you think about the similarities in the Latino vote. Because what are Latinos more than anything? They economically, they are working class people, majority. Obviously, there's some poor, there's some rich, but majority are working class people. Lots of economic conditions that are very similar to whites without a college degree. It only makes sense that these people were moving hand in hand with, when they were voting primarily on economics in the 2024 election. And that is, that's not shocking to anybody. They just didn't want to acknowledge it. Here's Trump's problem. Trump set up expectations that he could not fulfill during the campaign on the cost of living. People didn't just expect him to reduce inflation, which he did successfully do. Right to his credit, inflation got lower the first year of the second term, but people expected him to reduce the cost of not the rate of inflation but the actual price at their grocery store, the actual price of their electric bill, their actual price at the pump. They, they thought for some, some ability he would have a magic wand and be able to bring us all back to 2020. Here's what he said on the campaign trail. Clip 1.
- [09:07]
Donald Trump (clip)
Under the Trump economic plan, we will cut your energy prices in half within market down with and you can get very angry at me if we don't do it within 12 months, your energy prices will be cut in half.
- [09:20]
Ryan Graduski
According to Triple A, the average gas price right now nationwide is $4.06. In January 2025, right before he took over, it was $3.21. Diesel is $5.21. It used to be $4.10 in January 2025. Electricity bills are up 9% nationwide since Trump took office for his second term. That's a problem. Now let's hear what he talked about when he said about food during the campaign trail.
- [09:49]
Donald Trump (clip)
It's always hard to bring down prices when somebody else has screwed something up like they did. But we'll bring them down. We'll get them down. Energy is going to bring down prices. We're going to have a lot of energy. And energy is what brought it up. Energy and their bad spending is what brought it up. And energy is going to bring it down. We're going to have prices down. I think you're going to see some pretty drastic price reductions. As an example, food, bacon, ham, apples, everything has gone through the roof. It's one of the reasons I won. So as you know, as I said it, inflation was one of the Reasons I won.
- [10:23]
Ryan Graduski
Trump was absolutely correct in what he said. Part of big reason food prices rose under the Biden administration was energy costs and overspending that led to inflation. Guess what we're dealing with now that he isn't president for the second term. According to an economic research survey, overall food prices last month were up 0.2%. Groceries for beef and veal surge 13% year over year. Coffees up 17.5. Fresh vegetables are up nearly 12%. Dining out, full service, sit down restaurants are up nearly 4% annually, while fast foods up nearly 3.3. That hurts people. Regular people going to, you know, they, they need their McDonald's breakfast on their way to work. A lot of people drink coffee in the mornings. That's how they start their day. And I know people who are even upper middle class. I had a dinner with someone, you would all know this person, a well known celebrity and very, you know, I wouldn't say she's not worth a hundred million dollars, but she's wealthy, she's definitely wealthy. And she just said, I can't believe the price of groceries. She's like, I can afford them, but I can't believe how expensive things are getting when the upper middle class and the lower, upper, upper class are saying the same thing about food prices. Houston, we have a problem. And most importantly, it's not what people expected. It's not what people who voted for him expected. They expected him to reduce prices, you know, and even myself, I live a very nice life. I worked really hard for it. I still work really hard for it. But I have family members and friends who are, who are like, I mean, it's paycheck to paycheck. They're struggling to get by. I think we all know people like that. And it's this, this last couple months have just been a killer for them. I used to do Twitter spaces a bunch when I was traveling. I was always on the road. So I was, I travel like 60 times a year, flew 60 times a year last, not last year, I think the year before and the year before that. So I was always in a hotel and I would do Twitter spaces because I had no one to talk to because I would be, you know, different time zones, different places, and I didn't know who was awake or not. And I remember talking to this one guy who was from Tennessee and clearly not someone in a white collar job, not someone who likely had a college education. And he told me that during Trump's first term, this was during Trump's first term, we had this conversation, that his life, that Trump had personally improved his life substantially because his raise, his salary went from $15 an hour to 22. And just that, $7 an hour more. If you work 50 hours a week, that's $1,400 a month. That changed his entire life. He was like, I feel like I'm getting ahead for the very first time. This is not somebody who probably has a 401k plan or money in the market or massive amount of money, maybe passive income from multiple homes. This is just your average blue collar Joe working to kind of make it. And during the first Trump term, those people were so loyal because they felt like they, they loved him for many reasons. But the results were there. They were evident. They were just evident. And if you look at what wages might, adjusted for the cost of inflation, have been since the end of Trump's first term, since the end of 20, they're currently, as it stands as a May of 2026, they're $37 and 53 cents an hour. The last time they were that number was March 2020. They have been flat for, for six years now. Working class people in this country, during Trump's first term, wages, adjusted for inflation, grew by 10%. $35.86 to $38.33. And that's with COVID 19. That's with the COVID lockdowns. Had the COVID lockdowns not happened, they would have been up over $40 an hour. It would have been almost a 20% gain for working class people. That was the whole game. That's why they were unmovably supportive of Donald Trump. These people are not these working class white voters. They have a lot of beliefs, but they are not hardcore Republican ideologues. They're not freaking out over the Iran deal that President struck over a couple days ago. I know that conservative talkers and thinkers like Mark Levin are having nervous breakdowns on an hourly basis. But for those people, for the base of the Republican Party, this war has been hurting really, really, really badly. And they have been souring on Trump and the GOP because of that. But as Trump's base sees their wages in relation to fall, he needed to strike a deal even. Because even with Graham Platner scandals, even with the redistricting map, even with a favorable Senate map, Republicans are nothing without the working class white voters. They're nothing. They are the base of the gop. Whites without a college degree, who didn't go to Georgetown, they're not Latinos, they're not Blacks, they don't get any of the mainstream press that other groups get. However, they're the only demographic, the only demographic who consistently votes for Republicans. That's it. You'll, you'll never hear those words coming out of most people's mouths because they fixate on the women with college degree votes, the women in the suburbs, they fixate on Latinos, they fixate on black men. They fix it. The media loves to fixate on everybody who, who Republicans lose, maybe they'll get by 5% more, 10% more Republicans won Latino men in 2024. That was a big deal, but it was marginal. It wasn't what he got from whites without a college degree. And they did not elect President Trump to do regime change in Iran or Venezuela or Cuba. They did not vote for him so he can give tech billionaires, you know, the ability to create trillion dollar AI companies with no regulations. They didn't vote for him so he can get a Nobel Peace Prize. They voted for him because they believed he was the only person who was going to improve their lives, to make their community savers, to be able to send their kids to local public school without the fear that their kids would come out being trans or hating America or hating the parents so that migrants didn't flood the border and they didn't and the politicians on the left and defund the police and that there wasn't this two tiered system that we have in America. We've mentioned the two tier system in the uk, the two tier system in America where white men get all the condemnation that the media has to offer. They are condemned constantly as being jokes and racists and all the rest of it while being openly discriminated against by institutions in education and in hiring and for jobs. That's why they voted for him. That's why they love this man. That's why they loved his first term, because he was the only one who didn't ostracize them, who didn't alienate them, who didn't attack them, and who had the record to show he made their lives better. All the fake left wing working class white guys like Graham Platner and James Talarigo could never, never touch the relationship that Trump built in that first term with working class whites. Trump needs 65 to 70% of those working class whites rights without a college degree to show up and cast a ballot for the Republican Party in November, to have a chance of holding any kind of majority in either the Senate or the House and making his life much easier and not giving away the entire country to the Democrats. That is why I think going back to this, that's why the Iran deal was so important for the President and for Republicans. And that is why these poll numbers are so horrifying. Without the working class white boat, the GOP is nothing. Don't get it twisted any which way. Okay, next up, let's talk about some midterm numbers that are coming out and why it's possible that Trump's actually seeing some relief on the horizon. That's coming up next.
- [18:48]
Jacob Goldstein
This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com now
- [19:21]
Cindy Crawford (Meaningful Beauty)
I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty makes powerful and effective skin care simple and it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types and it's designed to work as a complete skin care system, leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's full regimen which contains all five of her best selling products, including the Amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next generation serum has the power of melon leaf stem cell technology. It's melon leaf stem cells encapsulated for freshness and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and you can get the Amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just $49.95. That includes our introductory five piece system, free gifts, free shipping, and a 60 day money back guarantee. All of that available@meaningfulbeauty.com your social media
- [20:22]
American Medical Association Announcer
feed delivers plenty of advice, but it doesn't know you. It doesn't ask questions. It doesn't give physical exams or order tests. Doctors do. At the American Medical association, we believe the best care starts with a real conversation, with someone who understands the science and your unique health. So stay curious, ask questions. But when it's time to make decisions, make them with a doctor. Learn more at amahealth versus hype.org that's
- [20:48]
Bethenny Frankel
amahealthvshipe.org this is Bethany Frankel from Just Be with Bethenny Frankel. Let me be blunt. Most dog food is junk. It just is. And I'm not feeding junk to Biggie and Smalls. That is why they eat just food for dogs. It's real 100% human grade food with ingredients I actually recognize, not mystery pellets pretending to be healthy. And once I switched, the difference was obvious. But better digestion, better skin, more energy. Dogs who actually feel good instead of just surviving dinner. Here's the thing. Do you care about quality? You make an intentional choice to be healthy. So why are you gambling with your dog's health? So let's think about our furry babies. Go to justfood for dogs.com right now and get 50% off your first box. No code. Just try it. Because once you see the difference, you're not going back.
- [21:37]
Montucky Brand Representative
Have you ever found yourself craving a cold snack?
- [21:40]
American Medical Association Announcer
Yep.
- [21:41]
Montucky Brand Representative
Montucky makes my favorite cold snack. It's a cold snackable beer.
- [21:46]
Ryan Graduski
Montucky is a light American lager from Bozeman, Montana. Go to montuckycold snacks.com/snack-finder to find Montucky cold snacks and a retailer near you. And if you're looking for some Montucky merch, use important snacks all one word for 20% off their merch store. So a lot of Trump's base is angry at him, but they're not prepared to jump ship from the GOP to Democrats. And there's two important data points that are giving Republicans hope. First, Democrats poll numbers in the generic ballot have stopped rising. According to multiple data analysts. Democrats numbers started to slow at the beginning of this month and actually as we've headed to the middle and end of this month, they're declining. Democrats overall, a generic ballot advantage is on the decline according to Nate Silver. And I know a lot of people don't like Nate Silver. Don't scream at me. He's what he's pointing out some data numbers that everyone else is pointing out. So I'm just using him because he's a well known data analyst. But he says he finds in his aggregate of the polls Democrats generic ballot lead is down to 6.3%, the lowest it's been since early May. Other analysts say it's actually even lower than that Vote Hub, which my buddy Zachary Denini who's so brilliant their numbers is that Trump's actual the Democrats voting advantage is slipped by more than 2 points, it's around 5. It's the lowest it's been since April. The Democrats are in a much different place than they were in 2018. In 2018, in the last midterm election for President Trump, Democrats had a 7.3% generic ballot advantage. So it's not so either if you go by the Nate Silver numbers or by the vote Hub numbers, Democrats are not in the place they were in back in 2018. They're not in that level of support. And that was an election by the way, that was, the polling was very good. The polling, if you look at like the Real Claire Politics polling average, Democrats had a seven point lead advantage in every month of the polling from June to November according to Real Clear Politics and they end up finishing off with an 8.4% lead overall. So the polls were pretty accurate in 2018. If we're going with that, that the polls are accurate again because Trump's on the ballot. So it's, we're, we're going to go with that estimate. Democrats are not in the place they need to be to get 2018 style results because the other data number that I'm going to mention to you is that the map is significantly better for Republicans, large part because of the mid decade redistricting. Remember in 2018 Democrats won the overall generic ballot in the House by 8.4%. That gave them 235 House seats. Now how they went, if they were to win this election before redistricting, Democrats would win 237 seats to Republicans 198 very similar to the 2018 numbers. Well after mid cycle redistricting that number falls from 237 to 223 three to Republicans 212. And once again that's only if they win by eight points. They're not currently polling at eight points. They're not polling at seven points. Many people say they're not polling at six points. So that lead is much, much smaller and it only gives Democrats, even with that tremendous advantage, an 11 seat majority. The idea that Democrats are getting this 50, 60, 70 seat majority, this fantasy world like it's 2018 all over again or 28 and 2006 all over again is just not based at all in reality. In fact, Democrats probability of taking the House has shrunk from an 85% chance in early May to a 70, 70% chance today. But to my friends who are, you know, my Republican friends who had been disappointed with a lot of the actions over the last year from going to the war with Iran to making the deal with Iran, getting gas prices down, getting food prices down is the entire entire game for winning back working class whites and working class Latinos that bringing them back in the fold. It is so important. If Trump can do that, Democrats odds of winning the House are going to shrink further. There are a number of seats in play that could go either which way. Not to mention that there are 10 seats that Republic that Democrats currently sit in in Congress that Trump won, that Trump could easily invest in, that the PACs can easily invest in. Maine, 2nd congressional district, New York's 3rd congressional district. There's races, there was a lot of races over in California that don't exist anymore because of redistricting, but there's two seats in South Texas. Winning over working class Latinos is so important to get those se into Republican hands, not just defending Trump. Seats the seat in Ohio, Marcy Captor seat all those seats. That's the entire game right there. And you can't win any of those seats without winning back working class voters. So that's why things are actually getting better for Republicans. Working class whites are mad. However, polls are showing that they not only have they not fallen in love with Democrats, but as greater exposure to the Democrat plan and policies have come forward, they're actually shying away from that. Okay, coming up next is Ask Me Anything. Stay tuned.
- [27:43]
Jacob Goldstein
This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive. And when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting, all linked and talking to each other. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com now
- [28:27]
Cindy Crawford (Meaningful Beauty)
I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty makes powerful and effective skin care simple. And it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types. And it's designed to work as a complete skin care system, leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth and and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's full regimen which contains all five of her best selling products including the Amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next generation serum has the power of melon leaf stem cell technology. It's melon leaf stem cells encapsulated for freshness and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and you can get the Amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just 49.95. That includes our introductory five piece system, free gifts, free shipping and a 60 day money back guarantee. All of that available@meaningful beauty.com your social
- [29:28]
American Medical Association Announcer
media feed delivers plenty of advice, but it doesn't know you. It doesn't ask questions. It doesn't give physical exams or order tests doctors do. At the American Medical association, we believe the best care starts with a real conversation with someone who understands the science and your unique health. So stay curious, ask questions, but when it's time to make decisions, make them with a doctor. Learn more at amahealthvsype.org that's amahealthvshipe.org this
- [29:58]
Bethenny Frankel
is Bethenny Frankel from Just Be with Bethenny Frankel. Most dog food is marketing, not nutrition. That is why Biggie and Smalls eat just food for dogs. Real 100 human grade food with ingredients I actually recognize. And yes, I do see the difference. Better digestion, healthier skin, more energy. Dogs that feel better. My babies, if you've been on the fence about switching, stop overthinking it. What's more important than your furry babies and their health? Go to justfood4dogs.com right now and get 50% off your first box. No code needed. Just try it.
- [30:34]
Montucky Brand Representative
Hey guys, have you ever found yourself craving a cold snack?
- [30:38]
Cindy Crawford (Meaningful Beauty)
Yep.
- [30:38]
Montucky Brand Representative
Do you even know what a cold snack is?
- [30:40]
Donald Trump (clip)
I do.
- [30:41]
Montucky Brand Representative
Well, some of you may have noticed I've been wearing a Montucky shirt on the video version of the podcast. And that's because Montucky makes my favorite cold snack. That's right. It's a cold snackable beer and summer is the best time to enjoy it.
- [30:54]
Ryan Graduski
You're right. There's Montucky is a light American Lager from Bozeman, Montana. It's snackable, shareable, and perfect for all occasions. Hey, that sounds like the dream beer to me. Go to montuckycoldsnacks.com snacks snack-finder to find Montucky cold snacks and a retailer near you. And if you're looking for some Montucky merch, use important snacks all one word for 20 off their merch store.
- [31:28]
Montucky Brand Representative
They got some cold horses on those cans.
- [31:30]
Ryan Graduski
Cold snacks. Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryan@NumbersGame podcast.com ryan@Numbersplural numbersgame podcast.com first question comes from Thomas. He says, ryan, I'm trying to pick good, fair judges, I'm assuming, in his local election. Every time I learn about a judge's political philosophy, I come up blank. They all say the same thing. We stand for the truth, justice, and the American way. Even AI does not help me learn a judge's background. How am I supposed to pick a judge to vote for? Can you help me out, Thomas? I don't know which seats you're talking about. Is it like a local criminal judge? Is it a local administrative judge? I mean, it's very difficult without knowing more. Or is it like a Supreme Court judge? I would say this. When reading language that a progressive is putting out versus a conservative, there are certain words that a liberal will say or. Or a conservative will say that the vice versa will never say. Right? So like, a liberal will almost never use the term constitutional republic in any of their literature. Almost never. They will always use the word democracy instead of that. That's an easy way to pick up someone's progressive or a cons. Another thing, a conservative, when referencing abortion, will almost never use the word choice. They will almost never use the phrase choice in any of their language. They'll always say pro life or the words abortion. You can pick up what people are saying when, depending on the wording they're using. So I would use that to say, oh, they're saying such and such. That's probably an indicator that they're progressive, whether they're conservative. So read the language on their websites very carefully. I'd also say, look at what other politicians are endorsing them and campaigning for them. That could also be a major red flag or white flag on how good they are. Okay, next question comes from Steve. Steve says, hi, I'm Steve from Iowa. I'm a listener from day one. Steve, I appreciate you with my whole heart. I've never been to Iowa. I gotta go. I was a fan of yours on the Client Buck show before you even started your own podcast. Always thought your segments were very interesting, and I don't understand why more Republican camp pains don't take your advice. I know, Steve, trust me. There's a old friend Lebowitz quote which was my great lot in Life is I'm always a godfather and never a God. That is 100% me. I'm always a godfather, never a God. No one ever does what I say they should do. The question I have is that I keep hearing from Gavin Newscom, Hakeem Jeffries and other Dem operatives in the media that the Trump administration is the most corrupt administrative transformation in history. They usually never give examples with their claim, but I have heard them complain about recent stock trades and some government contracts that benefit the Trump family. I know most of his claims are hyper, hyperbole, but there is some. Is there any grain of truth to those claims? Do you have any questionable actions Trump has done in the second term that could be examples of shady things going on? Pardons, Robbie. Robbie. Yeah, the stock trading stuff is less nefarious. I mean it's. I don't know, I. Look, this is. Use a term. The most corrupt in history is a stretch. We've had some administrations even in recent time that have been doozies. It's hard to say whether or not there's quid pro quos or something else going on when it comes to specific deals because I don't know the semantics behind a lot of stuff. I will say the thing that Trump does that I find problematic is he plays very fast and loose with his pardon power. There's a group called the clc. They broke it down like this. There are three types of pardons. The first are reward pardons which benefit donors and supporters who break the law on, you know, who break the law and, and receive a benefit. So some recent Trump pardons are like this. Trevor Milton is a tech executive who was a convicted of defrauding investors. He was pardoned by Trump on March 2025 after pouring $2 million to a pro Trump political committees during the 2024 election. Paul Walzock was a executive convicted of siphoning $10 million from his employees paychecks. He received a pardon in April 2025 after his mother contributed $1 million to a Trump super PAC. And then Changpeng Zhao was a founder of a digital finance platform, Binance. He pledged pled guilty to sweeping money laundering case and agreed to pay $4 billion in penalties. He received a pardon in October 2025 after his company took steps to enrich to make a deal with the Trump family. Then there's something called the corruption pardons which are excuse public. They excuse public officials who abuse their time in office as long as they are loyal to the president. Two of those examples would be former representative George Santos, who was expelled and then found guilty on defrauding voters. George is somebody that I've met many times and I was in the CBS documentary about George and I could talk about stories about George to ad nauseam, but I'm trying to make sure he is joining the waste bin of bad politicians. Trump said he supported him in part because he had the courage, conviction and intelligence to always vote Republican. And then there's Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar. This is the one of the most insane pardons Trump gave out. He was indicted for allegedly accepting bribes from an Azerbaijani oil company and a Mexican bank. He received a pardon in December 2025 after Trump claimed he was a target conservative positions. Henry Cuellar could have easily lost his seat and joined the gop, but is likely not going to now. Or his seat could have flipped Republican had he been convicted because it's one of the most Trump seats and Trump pardoned him, so he's running for reelection as a Democrat. It makes utterly no sense. I don't understand why Trump did that. And then there's something called the brokered pardons, which is where deeply pocketed individuals hire well connected lobbyists or political fixers to secure clemency. Two cases of that is George Joseph Schwartz. He was sentenced in April 2025 by Trump's own Justice Department to three years in prison for $38 million of a tax fraud scheme. He paid 1.1 million to a lobbying firm, to two lobbying firms, rather, who described their work as seeking a federal pardon. Their advocacy reportedly included enlisting Trump affiliated influencers, as well as hiring lawyers, close connection to the White House. And Trump granted Schwartz Clemency in November 2025. There's a named Tim Lewicki. His company donated $250,000 to Trump's inauguration. He received a pardon December 2025 after his lawyers, including Trump ally Trey Gowdy from Fox News fame, pressed the president for leniency during a round of golf at Mar a Lago. So those are examples. That is what I find extremely problematic of this White House is how Trump uses the pardon power so fast and loose. I find it sometimes very disturbing. Now, he is not the only president to have used the pardon power to benefit people in close relation to him. Obviously Joe Biden did that. Bill Clinton famously did that when he was president. But they usually do it on their like last day in office. They don't do it this far out. And if you look at the overall numbers of pardons Trump has issued, if you discount the 1500 from January 6th he's issued relatively few pardons, certainly a lot less than Obama. Even with the January 6th pardons, however, it's still you shouldn't give a pardon out just because someone's politically connected to you. It's what my philosophy is. Okay, next up is from Caleb. He says, ryan, I know you've done some very deep dives on upcoming census. How could should we add Republican seats when some more liberal states lose seats? I know there's an immigration crackdown and it's done great in that effort. What are your thoughts on whether or not Trump will succeed in not counting illegal immigrants in the next census? And a follow up if for some reason, God forbid, the Republicans lose the White House in 2028, could the Democrats reopen the migration floodgates? Great question. So let's say Trump loses in 2028. The he doesn't leave office until 2029. February, January 2029. So Democrats would have about a year to open floodgates. Yes, they could open them up again and but the losses will have been felt. I don't think that they could get what they need for what's not coming. Currently those population losses are just being felt in blue states to such a degree I don't think that they'll make them up. However. Yes, they absolutely can. 2028 is critical for the census. Critical because census alone into keeping Republicans into keeping Democrats hands from opening up the floodgates states of the United States and making blue states get more seats. That's 100% true. If Republicans win, could they stop the Democrats from counting illegal immigrants? Not unless the court agrees. And so far the court has always said no illegal immigrants are counted in the census. It's counted persons. That's what the Constitution says. They count illegal aliens as persons. If a Republican, let's say JD Vance or Marco Rubio become the next President though in 2028 to carry out a second, second, you know, consecutive Republican term. What is more likely to happen is many illegal immigrants will not choose to fill out the census out of fear that it is going to lead to their eventual deportation. Now there are other communities that historically are undercounted. For example, Orthodox Jews historically undercounted. Remember back in Nazi Germany, the Nazis used the census to find out where Jews live and then round them up for the gas chamber. So Orthodox Jews, not they don't never write the census, but they are always undercounted in the census because of that. What I expect is Democrats will go on a full media tour telling illegals you need to fill out your census form to try to get them to. To vote for it. But it depends on if the fear is real. If the fear is real that they could be deported, they likely will just not do it. They will not, you know, answer at all. It's so funny. I was with a friend of mine, and she was talking about that she had a friend from Mexico who was trying to switch papers, and she wouldn't tell me why. She wouldn't. I'm like, just go back to Mexico. She's got a green card. Go back to Mexico and apply for citizenship. Like, just do adjusted status or have someone do it for you. Have an adult child. Like, there was a million ways to adjust your status. These people are saying, there's no way is such a lie. And it took like an hour in the conversation with her say, oh, well, she has a previous criminal conviction. I'm like, oh, yeah, she can adjust status. She's gonna be deported. She's clearly shouldn't have even gotten the green card. She, she on the green card. The, The, The. The. The Residency. She will 100% be deported if she tries to adjust status. So a lot of them will, like, live in fear. And, and. And they will not. They will not fill the census because they'll feel it. Feel like it will end up being with their deportation. Okay, next up. I didn't write the name of this person down. I should have. This is a listener from Iowa. You said I'm one of your most loyal listeners. I'm so sorry. I should have wrote your name down. My most loyal Iowa listener. I am. I apologize. I will get your name for the next episode and I'll bring it up. Wondering this, they write wondering your thoughts on the Iowa races and with national implications. Do you think that Ashley Hinson is in good shape for the Senate races? What about the two or three seats Dems are targeting? Actually, my most loyal Iowa listener. I am having on the Republican nominee for governor of Iowa on podcast for Friday show. So definitely tune into that. We'll talk all Iowa then. I think Ash is in a decent shape. I've seen internal polling showing that it's tied in Iowa. Marion Miller Meeks I think, is in really tough shape. I think she's likely to lose. Zach nun is maybe 50, 50. And the Iowa House seat I think is 50, 50 as well. I was got. It's. Listen, the tariffs hurt Iowa bad. I mean, they really hurt Iowa bad. So I say right now, they'll probably lose. Republicans will probably lose one seat in Iowa and The other two as a jump ball. And I say that Republicans are probably more favored than not to hold the Senate seat in Iowa for Ashley Henson. Although I really hate her policy on how, how to treat pigs. I'm really disappointed. It's the only time she made news and it was about the, the supporting I think pigs. She supports pigs being able to keep in like small cages. It's really like a horrible policy. And watches Babe, the movie babe from the 90s with buffa pig all the time. It is, it, it's, it's, it's not, it's not okay. I'm not okay with Ash's position. Hope she changes it. But I know the ag lobby is very aggressive on that last question day comes from Greg. He says hey it's Greg from New Jersey. I revisited this multiple times because I didn't want to come off and sound heartless as this is a. Yes. Terrible tragedy and completely avoidable when you live in a country, some of the UK where there's a two tier policing and a crime. Rape being what it is. What a young white man approach a stranger, a minority who know he knows nothing about Henry was not armed and he just had a phone. Did he know if the individual is crazy? Clearly this man is and the defense is going to use this in trial. I feel very bad for his family but you don't approach a stranger with a knife and ask them if he's a bad man. God bless Nowak and not but this is not how to solve the broken system in Europe. I agree. However, he's talking about the Henry Noah case where Henry was stabbed to death by a Sikh. A British born Sikh. His parents were immigrants from India or at least one parent was. And then his parents tried to cover up the crime when he murdered this British guy, white British guy, Henry Noak. I will say this. Henry was a little intoxicated so maybe he wasn't using with his full mental capabilities and he also saw that he had a knife life. He was 18 years old. They don't develop their front full frontal cortex and they have drink and they're drunk and you know a lot of bad individual cases and maybe he just thought the guy was going to laugh it off and just walk away or whatever the case. I don't know. I, I can't get into his logic and his thinking. But I imagine when you are, you know your full frontal cortex is not developed and you are intoxicated, you're probably not making the best decision. So I don't think that Henry made the best decision. However, the response that isn't for someone to stab him, which is what they did. And this is having reverberations throughout Europe. And it comes a week after that guy was almost beheaded in northern England. And I think there's another thing that just happened in northern England. Oh, a white British Conservative was like, beat up in the street by a bunch of minorities. Yeah. I mean, England's at a boiling point. They're just at a boiling point. And I don't know if there's a way for them, for, for them to. To plow back out. I will just say this election is Nigel Farages to lose, and the whole country depends on him not to lose it. So a lot online. Absolutely. A lot of line in the uk. Thank you guys for listening. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts. Wherever you get your podcasts and give me a subscribe, subscribe on YouTube. It's so important to grow the channel. Thank you, guys. I will see you guys on Friday with the hopefully future governor of Iowa. Talk to you then. Bye.
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