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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: Virginia Politics Explodes: Spanberger's Poll Numbers CRASH, Redistricting Fight & Voter Backlash
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Ryan Graduski
Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you guys for being here. Okay, I have a very smart audience. Last week I got an email from a listener who said, hey, is anyone feeling sorry that they voted for Spam Burger Canadian, considering how left wing she's been and she ran as a moderate. Well, at the time I didn't have any data to go through, but now I do and I want to go over that. That's part of the interview that I have with the show with my friend Amber Duke. Very smart, very smart person from the Daily Caller. But first, I want to go over two very important things. I there are times where it's hard to get stories for, for the podcast together, and then there's times where I have more information I want to give you than I possibly can. And in, in just one show or in, you know, just three shows a week. We're at that point. I mean, I've, I could do a full three hour long episode right now, but I'm gonna break it up obviously today. And then Friday's episode, Friday's episode is gonna be all about the new census birth data that came out and the new immigration data. And it is rich with information. So if you like this podcast, subscribe to it. Hit like a bell or whatever. Make sure you listen to that Friday episode. But this episode is great, too. Okay, news story from the, from the New York Times with Jonathan Swan, very smart reporter. And Maggie Haberman. Who else is a smart reporter? I don't want to shade, Maggie, but Swan's Swan. I've gotten to meet several times and he's very, very bright. Okay. The New York Times talked about Trump's decision for war with Iran without going throughout the entire article because there's not a word that should be missed. But the, the crux of the position is that February 11th there was a meeting between Bibi Netanyahu and President Trump and his inner cabinet. The press was not aware of it. They brought Bibi to the White House without his, not without the press's knowledge. And they had a secret indoor meeting where they presented a video about how to do regime change in Iran. There was a four point plan offered by Bibi and it said the first point was to kill the ayatollah the second was to cripple Iran's capacity to project power and threaten its neighbors. It's obviously its missile program. The third was a popular uprising inside Iran. And the fourth was regime change with a secular leader installed in the country. They even talked about the idea of the Kurds invading from Iraq. What's fascinating about this article is that they talk about the reaction from other people inside the meetings. First, CIA Director John Radcliffe told the president that goals three and four were farcical. Rubio said it was quote unquote Vance was who was not at that first meeting. He was at a second meeting at the Vance was said he was very skeptical. General Kane said sir, this in my experience is standard operating procedures for the Israelis. They oversell and they oversell and their plans are not always well developed. They know they need us and that's why they're. They're hard selling. And then Trump said that the regime change would be their problem, but he didn't specify who there was. It's either the Iranians or the Israelis either that the either one would I guess take over over for regime change. The regime change part of the of the operation. President Trump thought according to the report. President Trump said thought it would be a quick war because of how quickly the bombing campaign was over the summer that took place. And they said that Trump believed the Iranians could not close the Strait of Hormuz. The loudest voice championing the regime change was Pete Hega. He was really the big cheerleader Rubio when like the decision got closer and closer to being made Rio Rubio was kind of ambivalent and he wanted more time to negotiate with the Iranians rather than having a full scale war. Susie Wild kept her opinion really to herself. Another report was, was very, was was very worried what another war would do and was very skeptical but obviously supportive out outright. Vance was the most skeptical and worried what instability would happen and said the Iranians had the upper hand at closing the straight up Hormuzzi. Just absolutely incredible reporting on the other part of those two reporters and really shows how much of this decision for the war was Trump. And you know, inside the Republican Party there's so much conversations about Rubio and that Rubio is this war hawk and Ruby's this big champion of the war. This kind of throws a bunch of cold water on that notion that Rubio was like gung ho about it. Rubio definitely projects strength and projects confidence and he's a great Secretary of State. I'm not taking that away from him. But the narrative that this was Rubio's, you know, neoconservatism really pushing forward, not so much. It's really just Trump and Hegs Geth and Benjamin Netanyahu at the end of the day, pushing for this war and believing it would be over so quickly. Fascinating reporting. I want to get more into it when they have a book coming out, Haberman and Swan, Jonathan Swan. So I want to talk about when the book comes out, I get a chance to read it. Okay. Other thing I need to talk to you guys about is there is a new terrible bipartisan bill making its way through Congress and it is the backing of 40 members of Congress. 20 Republicans and 20 Democrats have put forward a new bipartisan immigration bill called the Dignity act, which they said, they swear, they say it, they swear it's not an amnesty. It is not an amnesty. It's just a legal pathway to long term undocumented immigrants. Congressman Mike Lawler from New York, Republican, he said, this is not an amnesty. This is accountability. This is fairness. This is dignity. Ladies and gentlemen, that is what you call a lie because it is in fact an amnesty. Amnesty means you reward law breakers, I. E. Illegal aliens, for breaking the law initially and then managing to go undetected, continuing to break the law, that same law year in and year out for sometimes decades. And now you want to reward the law breakers. I have Mike Lawler cell phone number. I should call him and just have him on this podcast. But what I would like to know is first and foremost, what other law class of law breakers do you want to give the okay to and say it's all right. Everything that we did initially is okay, you're no longer going to go to prison. Is it drunk drivers? Is it people who scam elderly? What other class of lawbreakers, aside from people who break into this country illegally, are you willing to treat with such fairness and kindness? And more importantly, and this is what goes kind of unthought about in conservative media, whenever Congress talks about giving an amnesty of any kind to illegal immigrants, it doesn't matter how many stipulations and loopholes and, and regulations there are with it. Whenever they even have a serious discussion about it. What happens overseas in countries all around the world, is human smugglers. Take those clips and advertise them to people and say, look, America's going to give you citizenship. Give me 8,000, 10,000, 20,000, whatever it is, dollars, and let's make another multibillion dollar year business. That's what it was under President Biden. Another Mult million business where human smugglers, the worst people on the planet, make profit on poor people's willingness and and ambition to get to America. For whatever reason they want to get to America. I'm not going to judge them right now. But you not only reward law breakers living in this country, but you enrich human smugglers. Every member of Congress doing this bill is might as well write a personal check to a human smuggler living in Venezuela, living throughout Latin America, living through Southeast Asia and Africa. They are making them wealthier. It is disgusting. And I also want to. And by the way, that has happened in the past. Remember Reagan's amnesty, which was intended for 1 million people, gave it to 3 million people because the minute the amnesty was seriously being discussed, they ran to the border as fast as they possibly could because they heard we're going to get citizenship. It doesn't matter what they say, we're going to get citizenship. And yeah, Reagan's amnesty had stipulations and rules, but guess what? And this goes for the 20 members of the Republican caucus who are pushing this amnesty. All those rules are nonsense because the judiciary has tons of left wing activist judges who will wave away every single regulation you can think of as discriminatory and that they don't need to follow it. I want you to remember something. The Reagan amnesty, which was for illegal aliens who had lived in the country continuously before 1982, it was signed in 1987, had a one year window to apply between 1987 and 1988 to apply for citizenship because of the judiciary, because of liberal judges. Guess the last year they actually had to apply for citizenship. 2002. That is how long judges found loopholes for 100,000 here, 30,000 there. I mean people who were not even in the country at the time of the amnesty got it because of that Reagan law. If this bill, this dignity act happened today, we would have judges putting forward retroactive loopholes for people who are not even in the country illegally right now until 2040. 40. I want you to think about how, how horrendous the lie that they are telling is right now that this is not an amnesty. It is not only an amnesty, it is an amnesty for people who are not in the country that members of Congress who are supporting this bill, who are old, will be signing that will affect this country long after they're dead or who are supporting. They're not signing it, they're supporting it. Like this is what happens whenever Congress pushes forward an amnesty. Instead of saying let's enforce the laws on the books as they are. So what does the Dignity Act. Dignity act do? This is, I quote, I'm reading from the Dignity Act. It says the Secretary or Attorney General shall adjust the status of any alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence on a conditional basis or without the conditional basis as Provided in section 2104. An alien who is inadmissible or deportable from the United States is the subject to a grant of deferred enforced departure, has temporary protected status. It goes on to say, nothing in this division or in any other law may be construed to apply a numerical limitation on the number of aliens who may be granted permanent resident status. So not only are they protected from deportation, they're granted an amnesty for deportation. They're given adjusted status, which they will then adjust to green cards with, that will adjust to citizenship. It may take a while, but they 100% get to citizenship. But there's no numerical number. There's no cap. It could be 5 million. It could be 10 million, it could be 50 million. It could be any amount. There's no cap. They're not talking about, oh, just the 12 million that they estimate will be or 15 million estimate will be here. There is no cap and they say it's for anyone who was in the country before 2021. So it doesn't include the Biden wave. That's the Republicans. Big giveaway for the Democrats. We're not going to include The Biden people 100%. They're going to get it. Because how hard is it to defraud the government when they're having to issue. Think about, think about the immense work people in the government do, especially uscis, which has, which is not a huge office in the government. And they have to administer every visa applicant, every permanent resident applicant, millions and millions of applications. Flood them with 15 million more people. Give them a year to fill out 15 million more people and see how many have fraudulent documentation that, that they just made up that they were in the country in 2020 when they weren't. They got here in 2023, 2024, whenever, and see how many of them will get through. It will be absolute widespread fraud. Somalian daycares will be more honest in Minnesota than, than the amount of fraud that will go on from this application process. Not only it does that. This is one of those things that sound good and people who have not thought constructively about the issue say, oh, that sounds wonderful, but it's actually horrendous. The bill also streamlines the green card application process. For high skilled workers and international college students, they get faster chance to become green card holders and then citizens basically stapling a green card to the back of every diploma. Why is that a bad thing? Now you think, oh wait, it's, it's great because we have all these smart people here now and new scientists and new engineers and you know, let's take away the, the entire issue that we have with the AI revolution that we're having and that college educated people are not getting jobs as fast as they used to and now they're in more competition with international students. Let's take away the, you know, economics and, and, and modern news. Let's take that out of it. What it does, what stapling green cards to the back of diplomas does, is it turns every college in the country into a green card mill. So all the failing colleges and colleges fail, you know, all the time. Bernie Sanders wife ran a college. She used to run a college and she ran into the ground. She managed to make it go bankrupt. Socials, right? But that happens all the time. Every one of these colleges, these D rate, C rate, you know, community college or not even community college, but small colleges, liberal arts colleges that aren't finding enough Americans to go to them. What they can do is go to international students say, give me 100 grand. Because you know what, not only you're gonna get 100 grand, but you're gonna get citizenship in the end anyway. You're giving me 100 grand and what you're gonna use to be a green card holder to the United States and a citizen within five to seven years. And then you could sponsor your whole family from Timbuktu and they could all come here just as well. That is what stapling green cards to the back of diplomas does. It incentivizes more immigration fraud. And colleges, huge windfall. They could charge so much money because they get citizenship. It is a money mill for colleges. The same people promoting cultural Marxism to young people saying America's garbage. America is crap. Guess what? They're going to make tons of money from this. So human smugglers win, bad colleges win, failing colleges win. And there's more of high skill workers in the middle of an AI crunch that will put more college educated Americans out of work. Okay, what other, other features of the bill I want to go over very quickly? Preventing illegal aliens from this is what this states. This is the bullet points that they gave out when they were doing press releases. It says they're going to prevent hiring illegal aliens to protect American jobs. That is already a law. And apparently these 20 Republicans really don't like enforcing the laws on the book. So this won't actually the current law is not enforced about protecting American jobs from illegal aliens. It's forced if you go through lawsuits. But it's already on the books. So that does absolutely nothing. It's just, you know, sugarcoating this crap sandwich that they're offering people. And I know I'm swearing a little bit more than I usually do because I never swear on this podcast, but I'm very irritated about this. It grants permanent residency for dreamers. Of course, you know, they haven't gotten enough. Anyone illegally in the country before 2021 qualifies. And once again, a liberal judge comes in, it's going to be anyone from the Biden years too. And then visa reform. And if you think that means ending visa abuse, you are wrong. It means it makes it easier for foreigners to get visas without returning to their home country to apply. Sponsors of the bill claim that high skilled workers are in need and once again do not have any clue what's going on with kids coming out of college right now and how hard it is in most sectors of the economy for them to find a work for find a find a job. At this exact moment, Here are the 20 Republicans sponsoring this bill and if you live in their district, I want you to do me a favor I never ask besides liking and subscribing, I never ask for my listeners. Do me a favor, do me a favor and call these Republicans and tell them you, if you live in their district, don't call them if you don't live in the district. But if you live in the district, call them and say you will not vote for them in the general election, even if that means a Democrat wins. The number for the Congressional switchboard is 200-222-43121. They are names are David Valdeo, Republican from California's 22nd district Young Kim, California's 40th district Gabe Evans, Colorado's 8th district Maria Elvira Salazar, Florida's 27th district. She's the main sponsor of the bill. And overall, a terrible member of Congress, Mario Diaz Barlett, Florida's 26th district Neil Dunn, Florida's 2nd district Zachary Nunn, Iowa's 3rd district Marlon Stutzman, Indiana's 3rd district, also a terrible member of Congress, James Bard, Indiana's 4th district. Don Bacon, he is retiring so doesn't run out of calling him, but he's Nebraska's second district. Mike Lawler, New York 17. Nick LaLota, New York's first district. Mike Kelly, Pennsylvania, 16th district. Brian Fitzpatrick, Pennsylvania's first district. Lloyd Smucker, Pennsylvania's 11th district. Monica de la Cruz, Texas's 15th district. Jennifer Kiggins, Virginia's second district. And Dan Newhouse is also retiring. Washington state's fourth district. Every one of these congressmen is in a district that Trump won campaigning on mass deportation. Except for Fitzpatrick, Lawler and Bacon. Every other one of them had Republicans go to the polls to vote for Trump's agenda of mass deportation. This is a betrayal. I am going to have to start a super PAC like I did with school board elections on immigration to oust people like this. I have no other choice because no one's doing anything and they are stabbing Republicans in the back over and over. Some of these districts are so Republican. Lloyd Smucker, Nick LaLota, Marlon Stutzman, Zachary Nunn, Neil Dunn. What are you people doing? Have you talked to a Republican this year? It is ridiculous. Okay, last thing we're going to go to our main topic right now, and that is the what is happening in Virginia? Republican people in Virginia are starting to regret their vote for the Governor Spamberger. Virginia Governor Spamberger. It's not surprising. A new Washington Post Scholars poll found that Spamberger's poll numbers have fallen to 47 with 46% disapproving. She won, by the way, by double digits. She's underwater by double digits with Virginia excerpts. North Virginia, outside of louding central and western Virginia and a statistical tie in Richmond and Loudon. Not great. She's underwater with men, Republicans voters over 50 and white voters. She's only tied with independents, young voters, Latinos, Asians and voters with a college degree and white voters with a college degree. These are all groups. She won by huge margins just six months ago. She's importantly down by six points among very likely voters. One in ten who support her say they have an unfavorable opinion of her. That's not enough for Republicans to win, but that is a start. A plurality of voters think she is too liberal and her policies will make life more expensive for people living in Virginia. That is the truth. Her policies, Democratic policies are making Virginia and turning into Maryland and all the other states that people are fleeing from. With me to discuss Virginia and Spam Burger is Amber Duke, the editor in chief of the Daily Caller. That is coming up next.
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- [24:47]
Jacob Goldstein
is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way you can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out odoo@o d o o dot com. That's o d o o dot com.
- [25:22]
Ryan Graduski
With me on today's episode to discuss everything happening in Virginia is my friend Amber Duke. She's the editor in chief of the Daily Caller. Amber, thanks for being here.
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Amber Duke
Thanks for having me, Ryan.
- [25:31]
Ryan Graduski
So we are looking at Governor Spamberger's poll numbers in the worst position any incumbent governor of Virginia has been in. Now, I want to remind listeners Virginia is a very unique state in the sense the governor can run for reelection, but not consecutively. Like you have to take a break and then run again. So no governor of Virginia has ever been reelected. So I guess that that kind of fear is over. But for a woman who won by such a large margin, you're seeing her poll numbers at the worst place it's been, even compared to Republican governors for a blue state. What have you experienced? I know you're a Virginia resident and you been in Virginia for a while. What are you seeing as far as her message kind of falling apart and her political coalition falling apart?
- [26:17]
Amber Duke
Yeah. So I live in Fairfax county and I've been a Virginia resident for 10 years now, actually this year. And what this Washington Post poll that you're referring to shows is that despite winning by double digits against the lieutenant governor wins some Sears Spanberger has the worst approval rating among eight or nine of her predecessors. It's basically since the Washington Post started doing the poll in the early 1990s, she has 47% approval to 46% disapproval. And the common refrain that I hear from my fellow Virginia residents and just looking at the conversation that's been happening in the news media is that people feel like there was a rug pull moment. She campaigned on being a moderate, focusing on affordability, and yet as soon as she got into office in January, the very first thing she did was she revoked the program that required state police to cooperate with ICE on immigration enforcement. And we have heavy Ms. 13 gang activity in Northern Virginia. There was actually a top five leader of the gang that was arrested by the Trump administration in Woodbridge, just south of where I live last year. There's also been a series of illegal alien murders in Fairfax county that have been let off the hook prior to them actually allegedly committing the murder by the county prosecutor, Steve Descano, who is a Soros prosecutor. And just in general, really big problem with illegal immigration. So that's number one. Then number two, her party takes control of the House of Delegates as well as the state Senate. They have majorities in both chambers of the legislative body and they immediately introduce packages of legislation that are completely left wing from encounter to what Spanberger campaigned on. So we're talking about tax increases across the board on a variety of different items. Whether it's entertainment, restaurants, small businesses, basically every facet of your life, your taxes are going to go up. That's not affordability. And then they also institute a whole bunch of green climate policies, things like you're not allowed to use a gas powered leaf blower. And they also try to revoke tough on crime policies from the Youngkin administration. They want to get rid of mandatory minimums, three strikes laws, all of those things. So basically any leftover policy that kept Virginia semi sane and safe from the previous governors, even Terry McCulloch wasn't this bad, frankly, is at danger of being overturned by the Democrats. And one final thing is that as they're doing all of this, including the soft on crime, refusal to cooperate on immigration enforcement, they also want to take away your guns. So if you're a legal gun owner in Virginia and you want the opportunity to protect yourself, that's also potentially going away under the Democrat rule.
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- [29:20]
Ryan Graduski
And the interesting thing about this poll, especially found in the cross tabs, is high propensity voters, voters who voted in 2025, 4 and 2 were the most had the biggest objection to not only Spamberger, but her redistricting effort to make it Virginia 10 to one Democrat congressional state. You know, I had a political pollster or an impulse of a consultant on this show many, many months ago and he said off of the bat Spamberger was plotting a presidential run, that Spamberger really wanted to run for president, that that was her goal. And this is, if this is about opposing Trump, she's doing a very good job. But it's like a checklist of, of it's like what is it, word gab or, or mad, mad lips of like Democratic policies. Nobody wakes up in the morning and says, you know what I really am against? It's gas, gas powered leaf blowers. But it really is. And the speaker of the House, the Democratic speaker of the House in Virginia is she's like 83 or 84 years old. She is as far left as they come and is really, I think she's really driving the ship. It looks like, it doesn't really look like Spamberger is as in charge as the most radical parts of the Democrats in the state legislature.
- [30:46]
Amber Duke
And that's led to a lot of speculation from people that perhaps Spanberger is going to serve as the foil to the Democratic legislature and veto a lot of the crazier legislation that they're pushing through. The first test of that theory will be the gun control legislation. They basically sent a couple of bills to her desk that would have a huge impact on legal gun ownership. It would basically ban any AR style rifle, including AR 15s, which are the most popular semiautomatic rifles in the country. They. It would also put magazine capacity limits, a bunch of restrictions on gun store owners. So basically they want to ban guns without explicitly banning guns. They just want to make it really difficult to sell and buy them. And so I'm curious to see what Spamberger does with that. If she sends it back to them, they might be able to override the veto. But that could be an indication that maybe she's trying to play like the moderate foil to the progressive Democrats in the legislature, but based on the fact that she has reversed this ICE policy, that doesn't seem super likely to me. And I think, you know, one way, one helpful way to frame what's happening in Virginia is that if you are someone who works in downtown dc, you basically have an option of living in a Maryland suburb or a Northern Virginia suburb of the city. And I grew up in Maryland. There are red pockets still in that state, but everything surrounding D.C. is incredibly blue. So people who wanted to get away from the Maryland craziness typically choose to live in Northern Virginia. And even though it is a very Democrat, heavily Democrat area, it wasn't quite as woke or progressive as the Maryland suburbs. That is quickly changing. And so for people who work in dc, they're starting to run out of options. And I've heard a lot of people talk about potentially going to West Virginia and taking the train into the city because they really just feel stuck where they can basically not have a less than one hour commute to their workplace and live in a place that is sane and common sense.
- [32:58]
Ryan Graduski
Well, it's actually even crazy in that, you know, I have, I, I have property in Pennsylvania. I've been to Pennsylvania a lot. Lancaster now offers flights, direct flights to be BWI, and people have moved from D.C. to Lancaster, Pennsylvania, and they fly. And it's a really cheap flight. It's like, that's crazy, but it, but it is. If you don't have to be there every day, there's no sense of staying there. And you could live in a much cheaper, much nicer part. So the urban sprawl of D.C. to everywhere else to get away from the insanity that is, you know, Montgomery county or Fairfax county and the prices is absolutely no joke. I want to talk though about, you know, in right now with President Trump's been very effectively cracking down on immigration and there has been self deportations and we're looking at blue states seeing an exodus. And, and in the sense of, and I talk about this on the podcast a lot. In 2030 we have this redistricting effort going on. California, New York, Illinois will lose almost a dozen seats between the three of them. Oregon's going to lose seats. Virginia is one of the few blue states that is really of larger blue states, that is not in the same precarious situation that other blue states are. It would seem almost logical that they would not want to be in the place where that they are in, you know, in, in losing congressional seats. But the, my, my, my question to you and the point of it is, is that when it comes to political power or just quality of life issues for a lot of Democrats, not for all of them, Jared, polls is not like this. The governor of Connecticut's not like this. But for anyone with a presidential ambitions, you have to choose far left power. And what does that say about the Democratic Party?
- [34:46]
Amber Duke
Yeah, it's a good question. And I think tying it back to this gerrymandering effort is really important because Spanberger has been full throatedly endorsing what the Democrats are trying to do on redistricting in Virginia with the aid of former President Barack Obama. They've dropped millions of dollars to run ads with his face on them in Virginia. And yet I've got to say, even in Fairfax county, which is very blue, I see way more no signs than yes signs. To your point, going back to that Washington Post poll about high propensity voters, this redistricting is completely insane because not only does it switch the balance from 6 to 5 Democrats to Republican favor to 10 to 1 Democrat districts to Republican districts, but the way that it's actually being marketed to voters and the way that it appears on the ballot is so unbelievably unfair, ironically, because on the ballot this measure is described as temporary, which most people would hear temporary and think, okay, it's just for 2028. Let's say it actually goes until 2030 when the new census is done, which is how this ties back into your question. And I think a lot of people don't believe actually that it's going to stop there anyway because if Democrats don't get the result that they want out of the 2030 census and Virginia does bleed voters from especially the Nova area, I think people feel like they're just going to go ahead and extend this 10 to one map. And I think that's probably what their plan is to keep control of power. And then the other part of it that's really important to note is that on the ballot it describes this as fair maps. So voters don't get to see a picture of the map. They don't get to see what the new political balance is going to be. They just read on the on the ballot initiative a temporary redrawing to have fair maps. And Republicans tried to amend that language during the legislative session to be more accurate about what was actually happening here. And the Democrat majority struck down that amendment so that they could say fair maps. And Spanberger had nothing to say about it. So if she does have presidential ambitions, I think this is pretty clear that she is more obsessed with trying to go with the Democrat majority in their grabbing of power than she is as trying to govern as a sort of pragmatic moderate.
- [37:23]
Ryan Graduski
You know, it's so interesting you said it because in the poll, in the Washington Post poll, something like 9% of voters or 8% of voters said that the poll that the redrawing would be more fair for Republicans than the current map is. And I, and I just was like, and like something like 8% or 9% of Republicans support it. Now that could be Barbara Comstock, the former Republican congressman who's now full blown, you know, Trump derangement syndrome. But it's more likely a lot of confused voters who just think that this would be, you know, the idea of fairness is something that's almost sacrosanct to a lot of Americans and they just innately believe in it and they've been lied to so thoroughly. I wonder what the political ramifications going is given that high propensity voters are so opposed to this. Democrats only have a one seat majority in the state Senate and the states and elections are not this year. I think they're the following year. Are any Republicans trying to seize on this? Because also Glenn Youngkin has been completely mia. He's the most popular Republican in the state and he's nowhere to be found against this measure.
- [38:32]
Amber Duke
Yeah. So I have not heard about what Duncan is doing, but I do know that former AG Jason Miarius is working with, I believe it's called Virginians for Fair Elections, which is launching a grassroots counter effort to this campaign by the Democrats. The Virginia GOP is also involved in working with Miarize's group, as is the Republican National Committee, but they're keeping it relatively quiet. Right. They want to route this through third party groups that are local to Virginia because what would be a death knell for the Republican effort to defeat this would be making it more about Trump. They don't want the perception that the President is railing against the Democrats, quote, unquote, fair maps, because that gives more cover to the Obama Spanberger backed persuasion effort. And to hammer that point that you brought up about voters being confused, the competing signs that are being shared around Virginia and showing up in people's yards, the ones that are for the gerrymandering say vote yes for fair maps and the ones that are against it say vote no to rigged maps. So that's like the level of distillation and messaging that we've gotten to. And it's really going to come down to the ground game. Now, the high propensity poll is really important here because what do we know about special elections and midterms? It's the high propensity people who show up. And it's one of the things that's plagued the Trump Republican Party is that the low to mid prop voters who show up for him in presidentials don't show up in special elections and midterms. Well, if high propensity voters are the ones who are more likely to oppose this and they're the ones who are most likely going to vote on this, Democrats are starting to get worried. And I will tell you that my conservative and Republican friends who are working on this on an activist level and on a grassroots level have started to notice that the Democrats are pouring more money and resources into this fight because they are starting to panic a little bit. The early mail in ballots were not breaking quite the way that they hoped. So if I had to give you a prediction right now, you didn't ask for one. I'll give you one anyway. If I had to give you a prediction, I would say it's more likely than not that the redistricting passes, but it's going to be a lot closer than people anticipate.
- [40:53]
Ryan Graduski
Yeah, I've been breaking down the data as it comes in precinct by precinct and a number. Obama has been extremely effective at bringing out lower black Virginians.
- [41:02]
Amber Duke
Love Obama.
- [41:04]
Ryan Graduski
Do they?
- [41:05]
Amber Duke
Yeah, it's crazy.
- [41:07]
Ryan Graduski
Well, he's been, he's been immensely effective at that. Now, the one thing that did that changes things a little bit is, and this is very niche, but they have something called satellite voting. And basically they have a lot of satellite sites where you can go vote in person throughout Virginia for whatever reason. A number of Northern Virginia counties that are Democrat reduce their satellite voting sites and turnout is down substantially in those satellite voting sites. So who knows what that is. So far, early early voting is higher in this election than even in the governor's election. It will be very, very, you know, interesting what it says. And if it fail, if it passes, they're still going to go to the courts, which maybe is what they're always hoping for. Maybe, maybe that's what the former AG is hoping for, is to go to the courts and win to the courts. But it does tell of a real division within the state that overwhelmingly supported an entire Democratic slate just six months ago. Amber, where people go to read more of what you guys write about and what in your social media and everything?
- [42:08]
Amber Duke
Yeah, absolutely. They can find me@daily caller.com that's where all of our our work is through our reporters and our commentators. And then my personal X account is
- [42:18]
Ryan Graduski
at Amber Marie Duke Amber is a mensch and super smart. You should definitely follow her. Thank you from this podcast. I really appreciate it.
- [42:26]
Amber Duke
Thanks Ryan.
- [42:29]
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- [44:31]
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- [45:05]
Ryan Graduski
now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me Ryan@NumbersGame Podcast that's Ryan@Numbers Numbers plural numbers game podcast.com first of all, I have a listener. Anne Marie, you wrote me the most heartwarming and touching and kindest email I could have possibly imagined and it really, really, really like blew me away. And I want to thank you from bottom my heart. I don't get compliments every day working and so this was really nice that you sent that to me, so thank you. First second first question though of the show comes from Bradley. He says, I love your show. Can you explain why Congress doesn't pass simple bills? Why does every bill have like 30 different things in it? For example, the SAVE Act. A lot of Democrats, they support voter id, but just not the extreme Save act, which includes passports for verification and requires cleanup of voter rolls. Why not start with these simple driver's licenses and have a vote, See if it passes, then another portion of the bill can move on. Why do not put a vote for not counting illegals in the census? I feel like it's a 9010 issue. People do not realize the illegals are counted. Great question. Okay, so first of all, Republicans did do that with The SAVE act, they did pass a simple driver's license to show voter ID law without all of the rest of the SAVE act in it and it failed. It fell 5,347. Every Democrat voted it down, including Fetterman, who always likes to pretend he's a Republican when when him but they all voted for it down. So they did that. Their opposition is not about changing the last name or the passport or all the other stuff that is for the cameras. They don't want voter ID because they don't want they, they want people who are either illegally in the country or don't register on time or voting for somebody else. All the other things going to vote. When you live in, you know, New York state, which I voted in for for my entire life, if you show them the your picture id, they will say please don't show me that. All you have to do is just sign the correct way. Now some people who are more judicious in what they do the vote, the poll watchers, they will say this doesn't match the signature. A lot of them don't. And you know, everyone, people always say that elections are stolen because of illegals or because of the mail in vote or whatever. Typically and historically how elections have been stolen in the past. There have been a few local elections who have been stolen. Like there's one in Connecticut where it was the mail in voters. Typically what it is is that polling sites that are in apartment complexes or in the projects where there's a lot of black voters and not extremely judicious voter ID regulations, they will have them all go vote at the end of the day and they'll just start polling people. And when they don't poll people they will have other people vote for them. I mean this is what I've heard from old school political consultants, many of which are dead now. But that's how they stole elections back in the 70s and 80s. Okay, next question. Chris from Cincinnati. Ryan, thank you for being consistent voice railing against data centers. Check out this horrible story. He sent me a story that was insane. There is a data center going up at a, it's, it's a mobile home camp in, in the place. Mobile camp in Kentucky. These are all Republican voters. Lots of elderly, lots of veterans and they are, they have three months to find a new home. And it was heartbreaking. It was from Lex18.com it's called the Meadowland Village residence. If you want to listen, read it. It is terrible. The Democratic governor is not doing anything for these people. My guess is that they did not support him. They probably are all Trump voters or mostly Trump voters. I looked at the where the map is and it's a very red area. So heartbreaking, really genuinely heartbreaking what these data centers are doing. And it's more bad press that they should be working to get positive press, given how many people are annoyed by the AI stuff. Okay, last question for this podcast. It's from Trevor. Trevor says, hey, Ryan, huge fan of the show. You become my favorite podcast as a late Trevor. Thank you so much. Other podcasts are blackpilling their audiences with personal beef conspiracies and Israel. I try. I talked about Israel today. So, Trevor, I hope I didn't fail you. The reporting was just so good. I'm not out giving you conspiracies. I'm just, I'm telling you information as it comes to me that I think is really important. So stay on the message. My question is, Ann Coulter has been saying for years that if amnesty ever goes through, the entire country will become a one party state like California, and there's nothing that the right can do to ever change it again. With the Democratic Party becoming so radical, my big fears in 2020 and beyond is if they win back the House and the Senate and the White House, they will nuke the filibuster, pass an amnesty, open the borders back up to more third world migrants, pack the Supreme Court amid D.C. puerto Rico and Guamo states, ban voter ID. While this scenario would obviously be extremely bad, do you agree with Ann that it would be completely over for us, or do you think that there is still a path forward? If yes, what that path? What does that path look like? And if no, should we consider a national divorce? I'm in my 20s and trying to stay optimistic about the future. Thank you for the therapy session. You're welcome, Trevor. For the therapy session. And once again, I hope my news about Israel didn't throw me in the conspiracy wing. Do I think that it's over if an amnesty goes through? It is, basically. I mean, I mean, it takes a while to happen, so it won't happen immediately and they have to process it and then apply for citizen. It'll take a couple of years, but yeah. I mean, there's never been an election in our history where a majority of Latinos voted for Republican. There's never been a modern election where a majority of black voters. There's some data that says a majority of recent immigrants voted for Trump in the 2024 election, and maybe that's true. Is it over?
- [50:58]
Amber Duke
Over.
- [50:58]
Ryan Graduski
You Know, I don't know, like, there have been election cycles and there have been news cycles that, like Milei wasn't supposed to win in Argentina. That's a socialist country. And there have been other victories that shouldn't have happened that did happen. So is it impossible for another victory to happen? No, nothing is impossible. Right. I want to put that in there, but it will be very, very, very difficult. The stack, the cards are stacked so heavily against Republicans. If Reagan or, or Reagan 1980, or if Bush in 2000 had to run with the demographics of America today, and so the Democrats, they, and they would not have won. It's, it's a much. I mean, demographics have changed this country profoundly. And, and, and it made it much harder for Republicans. That's why, honestly, Trump's probably a more skilled politician than all of those other people, because winning in this cycle is much more difficult. What is? Should we consider a national divorce? No. National divorce is so stupid. We're not going to get anything from a national divorce. They always talk about this at the end of the day. No one really wants to live in a nation of California or Texas. They want to live in America. The best bet. And I mean, this sounds like hokey, and this sounds like it's, you know, I'm taking points from like Glenn Beck or whatever, but this is the truth. You want a federal government with extremely limited powers. You want an ability to have state governments that have the most amount of powers. This is why the founders set up the country like this. At the, you know, in the beginning of the presidency, at the beginning of the country, presidents did not have that kind of robust influence the way they do now. Certainly Congress did. And all the way through the 19th century, you want more limitations on it. And the good thing that Trump did is that the judiciary is very conservative right now. So a lot of things could possibly get stricken down and we'll have to kind of wait and see. I mean, the amnesty thing is very, very dangerous. The other good thing that Trump is doing right now is, yeah, these mass deportations is not deporting 20 million people like people think it would, but self deportations are also happening. You see it in the birth data, you see it in the housing data, you see it in the economic data. It's so evident that there are less foreigners living in this country today than there were. That has to continue for four years. That's why I tell you guys all the time, don't take the pedal. Don't take your foot off the pedal for whatever happens. I don't care how many negative stories there are about ice. We have to dwindle the illegal alien population to as close to nothing as possible because then an amnesty doesn't do anything. And that's, and that's really the goal. But, yeah, the Democrats are, and you see in the Virginia election that's happening right now, Virginia Democrats are, are about absolute power at all times. They are everything that they accuse Republicans of. I just. You need to know that they are everything that you. That they accuse Republicans of. So 2026 really matters. 2028 is a huge deal. We have to get to the 2000 and 30s. Because in the 2000 and 30s, if we can keep the Republican presidency in 2020, even if we lose the Senate, even if we lose the House or we need one or the other, we need the House and the Senate. We need some kind of combination. If we make it through the2030s, the map changes. California, New York, Illinois, Oregon, they lose so many seats that Democrats have to run inside baseball. Like, you guys know I don't like sports, whatever that term is an inside flush and inside home run, whatever the hell it's called. They have to run a perfect game to win the presidency because they need Georgia and Arizona, they need. And North Carolina. The amount of blue states losing electoral power is so profound that it really hurts them throughout the entire decade. And there's probably no going back after that. Anyway, that's your positive thing. We got to get through the next five years. We're going to make it. I promise you, Trevor. It's all okay, you know, Live a good life, have some good meals. Eating is the best therapy, I always say, but live a good life, have some good meals, have some Italian food. You'll get through it. We'll all get through it. And it'll be okay. I promise you. All right, that's this episode. Please like and subscribe if you like this podcast in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast. Wherever we get this podcast, especially on YouTube, my numbers are going up there. We're trying to grow the channel. I appreciate you all. Thank you so much for listening. I will talk to you guys later.
- [55:19]
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- [55:34]
Jacob Goldstein
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- [56:48]
Amber Duke
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