It's a Numbers Game: Virginia Redistricting Fight, GOP Special Election Win, and What the 2026 Numbers Mean

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show – “It's a Numbers Game: Virginia Redistricting Fight, GOP Special Election Win, and What the 2026 Numbers Mean”

Date: March 13, 2026
Host: Ryan Garduski (iHeartPodcasts)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the latest developments in U.S. local and national politics, focusing on the impact of redistricting efforts, significant special election outcomes, and what emerging voting trends could mean for the 2026 election cycle. Ryan Garduski breaks down both Republican and Democratic successes and missteps, especially around key controversies, changing voter energy, and the raw numbers behind current political momentum. The episode is framed by analysis and an extended Ask Me Anything segment, where Ryan responds to listener questions about insider trading, ideological shifts in the GOP, state-level initiatives, and campaign tactics.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. GOP Win in Prince William County, VA

[03:47 – 07:30]

• Historic Flip: Republican Jean Lacroix wins a seat on the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, flipping it for the first time in 38 years.
• Democratic Candidate’s Self-Inflicted Wound: Muhammad Surf Kassim, the Democratic nominee, had a history of highly offensive social media posts including frequent use of the N-word and anti-Semitic/feminist remarks.
• Divide within Democrats: Kassim refused to step down despite pressure. The previous primary rival ran a write-in campaign, splitting the vote.
• Result: Lacroix won with 44% of the vote in a three-way race.
• Trend: Ryan highlights a pattern where both Democrats and Republicans are increasingly vulnerable to being “canceled” by old social media posts as more millennials run for office.

Quote:

“If you’re going to run for office years beforehand, you should probably start scrubbing your social media… The best case of this is Congressman Abe Hamade from Arizona... He was smart—he deleted his social media in those years."
— Ryan Garduski [06:20]

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2. Democratic Momentum in Special Elections

[07:30 – 11:30]

• Overperformance Trend: Democrats flipped a seat in the New Hampshire state House, swinging 17 points left in a Trump-won district.
• Georgia Races: Democrats are outperforming their 2024 results by sizable margins (12–17 points) in several heavily Republican districts, even if they’re not ultimately winning the seats.
• Broader Implication: Across 30 special elections in 2026, Democrats have outperformed their 2024 district numbers by about 12 points—mirroring strong Democratic showings in 2025’s “shellacking” of GOP candidates.
• Sudden Shift: While earlier in 2026 Republicans were doing better, a sharp turn toward Democratic overperformance began in late February, with speculation on causes (candidates, news cycle, war in Iran).

Quote:

“For whatever reason, Republicans had six or seven special elections where they were just getting obliterated… I don't understand why… It could be a candidate thing. It could just be the news cycle. It could be the Iran war.”
— Ryan Garduski [10:12]

• Current Energy: Democrats appear highly energized, especially around issues like ‘democracy’ and are rallying early for November, while Republican enthusiasm seems less certain.

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3. Virginia Redistricting Fight

[11:30 – 16:27]

• Constitutional Amendment: Virginia voters are facing a referendum that could dramatically change the congressional map—potentially reducing GOP-held seats from 4 to 1 and giving Democrats a near-monopoly (10 D, 1 R).
• “Egregious Gerrymandering”: Ryan describes this as “one of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering in the entire country.”
• Early Voting Dynamics:
  • Virginia lacks party registration, so early vote tracking is based on county-level past performance.
  • So far, 9 of the 10 strongest-overperforming counties in early voting are Republican, while 7 of the 10 most underperforming are Democratic strongholds.
• Motivation by Anger: Both parties’ bases, especially Republicans in this case, are mobilizing out of anger over perceived unfairness.

Quote:

“If this was a baseball game, we are not even out of the first inning yet… But Republicans so far are showing up. They're showing up because they're angry and anger motivates people to go vote.”
— Ryan Garduski [15:45]

• Advice to GOP: Ryan recommends targeted outreach to immigrant communities (ex. Iranians, Venezuelans) tying the redistricting to broader political stakes.

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4. Ask Me Anything Segment

[20:18 – 52:48]

Highlights of Q&A:

• Dan Crenshaw’s Defeat: Not primarily about insider trading; rather, “obscenely arrogant” and alienated donors and colleagues.
  “He was very talented and he was a great communicator and it's a loss to Republicans, but it is a character flaw on his part.” [21:30]

• Trump Cabinet & GOP Leadership Intrigue:
  – Insight into rumors around Kristi Noem, Corey Lewandowski, and administrative appointments. – On possible criminal investigations if Democrats regain executive power. – Mullen’s lack of experience discussed; praised for immigration stances.

• Western New York Politics:

  • Often ignored because NY isn’t a swing state.
  • Would be a toss-up region if not overshadowed by downstate NYC politics.

• Demographic Migration Trends:

  • Most Democrat movers go to blue enclaves, even within red states.
  • COVID era led Democrats to avoid Florida/Texas, enhancing GOP registration margins.

• Pro-Life Policy & GOP Social Positions:

  • Ryan, a practicing Catholic, argues the Republican Party’s purpose is to “get people elected,” not ideological purity.
  • Major advancements for pro-life, gun rights, and other conservative movements have been gradual, not always obvious.

  Quote:

  “Do what's politically feasible to achieve your goal. Don't ask for a purity test… Let's just reduce the number of dead babies, however that may be, and that may look different in different places."
  — Ryan Garduski [34:05]

Other Q&A Topics:

• Illinois Gubernatorial Outlook:

  • Pritzker unlikely to lose (“a gajillionaire… incumbent… Chicago calls all the shots”).
  • Heavy gerrymandering effectively disenfranchised rural voters.

• Voter ID Ballot Initiatives:

  • Varies by state; often requires significant volunteer efforts.
  • Example: Arizona Prop 309 (2022) lost by a narrow margin, possibly due to association with “election denialism.”

• Campaign Tactics – Phone Banking:

  • “Not anymore… Once upon a time, phone banking made a big difference.”
  • Now only valuable if senior citizen volunteers are available and calls are well-targeted.
    [47:40]

• Listener Resources:

  • Shoutout to bipartisan efforts against redistricting in Virginia (vafairmaps.com).
  • Ryan emphasizes: “Voters should pick their politicians, not the other way around.”

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Notable Quotes and Moments

On Social Media Vetting:

“If you're going to run for office… delete it all.”
— Ryan Garduski [07:17]

On Redistricting:

“It's pretty fair to say this is one of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering in the entire country.”
— Ryan Garduski [12:40]

Re: Political Trends:

“America’s got more pro-life bills… in law since the 1970s, there are more rights to own guns than ever before.”
— Ryan Garduski [35:55]

On Illinois:

“Illinois is probably in the worst shape that there is. I think it’s even in worse shape than California.”
— Ryan Garduski [41:53]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:47] – GOP win in Prince William County, VA
• [07:30] – Democrats overperform in special elections
• [11:30] – Virginia redistricting analysis and early voting numbers
• [20:18] – Ask Me Anything segment begins
• [21:30] – Dan Crenshaw insights
• [34:05] – Abortion and social conservatism in today’s GOP
• [41:53] – State of the Illinois GOP and gubernatorial race
• [44:50] – Voter ID ballot initiatives and campaign tactics
• [47:40] – Phone banking: effectiveness and suggestions

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Tone and Style

Ryan’s delivery is candid, occasionally irreverent, and highly tactical—mixing political analysis with practical campaign advice and a willingness to puncture idealistic narratives on both sides of the aisle.

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Summary for New Listeners

This episode offers a detailed look at current campaign politics in the U.S., backed by numbers and hard-won experience. If you want to understand why Virginia’s redistricting matters, how Democrats and Republicans are jockeying for momentum, or just want sharp answers on how your local politics play into national trends, Ryan’s breakdowns and AMA segment provide a lively, data-driven roadmap.

Transcript

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[Ryan Garduski]

Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast with Ryan Garduski. Thank you guys for being here again. Happy Friday. We've made it through another week and we have a lot to catch up on. There's a lot of things going on in the news that just kind of come at you so quickly that you really don't and not being I'm not a Daily show, so I don't have every day to talk about, but these are the things I think are worth picking up on, especially when it comes to what's going on with elections and a lot of the earlier numbers coming out of Virginia for their redistricting efforts. So let's get into it. First, some good news for Republicans. GOP candidate Jean Lacroix flips a Democrat seat in Prince William County Board of A Supervisor. So this is local. This is like county legislature type thing. But it's important because Prince William county is the second most populated county in the state of Virginia. Democrats now have a 5:3 majority. They're one seat away from tying it up and two seats away from flipping the majority. Be a big deal. It's the first time in 38 years that this seat has flipped from Democrat to Republican. So what happened? Democrats nominated a guy named Muhammad Surf Cassim and he Won his primary by a mere 33 votes, running to the far left of the Democratic Party. Well, turns out Mr. Kasim was a big fan of writing things on social media. He is. This is the story that is going to come out more and more and more as more millennials are running for office. And we are the generation that were like the more or less the guinea pigs of social media, really likened put whatever they wanted to out there. Well, from 2012 to 2015, Mr. Kassim, who is Muslim, liked to put the N word on social media a lot. Like a lot a lot. Big fan of the N word with the soft A, not the hard R. Not that that makes a difference, but nonetheless, he would joke about things like this is one of the more wholesome jokes I can tell. He said, you can't call a tigger. Sorry, you can't call a tiger a tiga. Only they can call themselves tiga, which is like more harmless I guess than the other. I mean the other ones were explicit, like N word, N word, N word. Also, you can imagine a man with the name Mohammed Serf Kassim, probably not a big fan of Jews or feminism. His laundry list of comments even caused Democrats to demand that he step down. And when he refused, the candidate decided of the candidate who had lost the primary, decided to run a write in campaign believing he could win. Just doing a write in campaign and flip the district as as a Democrat but independent Democrat. Well, he was wrong in the end, Ms. Lacroix, the Republican won by seven points, winning 44% of the vote in a basically three way race. This is especially important given what I said to you last episode about Maine Democrat Graham Platner. Lots of things he's written on social media. Same things with James Talarico. I mentioned that like last week about the Texas guy. Lots of things on social media, lots of things that Republicans are now spending a lot of money on. Talking about his social media history. If you're going to run for office years beforehand, you should probably start scrubbing your social media. It works in your favor. The best case of this is Congressman Abe Hamade from Arizona. He's a Republican, wrote on social media a lot, loved to call. And when he was a younger guy in his early 20s and his mid-20s, loved to call Republicans racist. Loved to call Republicans who support immigration restrictionist racist, yada yada, yada yada. And then for whatever reason, 2016 to 2018, his entire social media scrubbed. Can't imagine why or what his original opinions of Donald Trump were. My Guess is it's not what he says now. Nonetheless, there's no proof because he deleted. He was smart. He was smart to delete his social media in those years where he was probably more than, more than, more than the average Republican was hesitant towards Trump at the time. He was probably calling Trump a racist every five seconds. We don't know because he social media. But nonetheless, if you're going on for office and you like to be spicy on social media years beforehand, delete it all. Okay, now they're good news for Democrats. Democrats overperformed in a number of special elections, especially in state legislatures. They flipped a seat in New Hampshire state House of Representatives. New Hampshire state house was 400 seats. So it wasn't like it's a big seat. It's basically like a block or two. It's a small, tiny district. Voters swung 17 points to the left in this New Hampshire district. In the area of Carroll, it was a district that Trump won by nine points. In Georgia's 14th congressional district, a Republican and Democrat are headed to a runoff. This is the old Marjorie Taylor Green congressional district. The Democrats are so far outperforming where they were in 2024 by 17 points. It's such a Republican seat that it doesn't matter like the Republicans going to win, but they are. Democrats are overperforming again. In the Georgia State Senate district that Trump won by 58 points that had a special election, Democrats overperformed Kamala Harris's results by 12 points. And then in another special election in Georgia, in the state House, which is a super Democratic area, Democrats still overperformed by 8 points. So this is not great. When you look at the total of the 30 special elections that occurred in 2026, just this year, so far in the first three months of this year, Democrats on average have outperformed where they were in those districts in 2024 by 12 points. Very similar to the 12.2 points. Democrats outperformed their 2024 numbers in 2025. And that year was a landslide victory in November. That year was a shell lacking for Republicans. Now, as I said in the past, Republicans have been doing better in special elections this year than they were the year before. That all started to change at the end of February. At the end of February, for whatever reason, Republicans had six or seven special elections where they were just getting obliterated. And their average, which was getting much better, just fell apart. It just completely fell apart. I don't understand why the last six or seven special elections have gone so heavily to Democrats when The previous special elections, just a few weeks before, we're going more towards Republicans. It could be a candidate thing. It could just be the news cycle. It could be the Iran war, I don't really know. But that has changed the averages to really match 2025. And it could be a precursor towards the November election if Republicans don't start getting energized. It shows this, these special elections are important because they show that Democrats really have tremendous energy. They are angry, they are passionate. They're talking about things like democracy that I know, like average voters aren't talking about, but they're worried about it. They're still going to no Kings rally. They are ready for November. I don't know if Republicans realize how energized they are. Like, it's going to be very close to may not be presidential election numbers, but it's going to be very, very high. And the only exception, the only case where this is not true is when you have a Democrat who likes to say the N word and rail against Jews and women on social media. In that case, Republicans are still doing pretty good. But that's not, that's not every case. That's only a few. Now, while we're on the subject of the elections, let's talk about Virginia, which is having the early vote for their redistricting. They're having a constitutional amendment. Remember, the court said we are going to review if this change in districts is legal after the people vote on it, which I don't understand. I think that's the stupidest thing in the world. But they're going to look at this after the vote. So there's an early vote coming up right now for a change in the Virginia Constitution, which would turn Virginia, Virginia is currently, remember this is a state that went for Kamala Harris by 6 points, currently has five safe or likely Democratic House seats, four safe or likely Republican seats and two swing seats, one which has a Republican in it with one which has a Democrat in it. It would change that very balanced map to being 10 Democrat seats, hard Democrat seats, one Republican. It's pretty fair to say that this is one of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering in the entire country. It's up there with Illinois, it's up there with California. It's up there with, I mean, Tennessee maybe you could argue there's very other few cases where there's this heavy level of gerrymandering and they are aggressively going after taking out four Republicans in the House Representatives. Well, the early vote is in so Far and I have some numbers for Fortune. Now remember, Virginia does not have party registration. So it's not like I can say this many Republicans or this many Democrats. I don't know why they don't have party registration. I think states that don't have party registration are crazy and chaotic. I like party registration, but they don't have it. So what we're going to is based off of the counties and how they performed in the governor's election. Off of the 2025 election so far, nine of the 10 counties most overperforming in the early vote so far voted Republican. Seven of the top 10 bottom counties that are underperforming their early vote from 2025 are Democratic counties according to Chaz Nadicom of State Navigator. He says one thing is absolutely clear right now. In the early in person vote so far Republicans are ahead. A lot of western Republican dominated localities have more votes so far than they did the same day equivalent in 2025. There aren't any spamberger one localities running ahead. Now remember, Virginia is still a Democratic state so their Republicans are running ahead of where they were running in 2025. That does not mean that they're ahead. More money and more resources have to be poured because you also need to try to win the independent vote. You'll see Italian independence. This is unfair. This is allowing politicians to pick their, to pick their voters rather than voters picking their politicians. Really Lean in heavily on that and try to get, get them motivated. Virginia voters I feel would be more fair to that kind of messaging than let's say California especially. California had already happened and Texas has already happened. So they both took out five, Texas took out five Democrats, California took out five Republicans. They both, you know, split the baby. There's no reason to go in now on Virginia. It's not like Republicans are getting this massive lead in the redistricting efforts the way the White House thought they would. The White House made this big gamble and it's not really working out I think as they expected. But I want to emphasize this is very early. This was a baseball game. We are not even out of the first inning yet. This is the first week of early voting. But Republicans so far are showing up. They're showing up because they're angry and anger motivates people to go vote. It is why Democrats are voting in these special elections. It's why they're going to vote in November. But this case of the Virginia redistricting is motivating a lot of Republicans to show up and you know, What I would say is if you're a Republican politician or political adviser or consultant or activist or whatnot, what I would do if you was in Virginia, look at every person on the voter rolls with a Persian last name, Persian Farsi, whatever the case is, where their family probably comes from Iran and send them an email or, or reach out to them or door knock to them and say did you vote? We need you to vote no. If you vote yes, they're going to indict President Trump who just killed the dictator that forced your family to flee. I would do that for Venezuelans. I would do that. I mean Venezuelan's is hard because it's not like a as unique of a last name as as Persian as. But I would do it for every single group that has huge levels of support for Donald Trump. I think that would be really, really, really important. Mobilization in these elections is key right now and the Republican rules and the Republican exurbs really need to show up in presidential full force to make sure that this does not go through. Okay, that is my update for the special election and redistricting fight in Virginia. Once again, Democrats are probably ahead in the early vote because it's the fundamentals of the state, but Republicans are doing the job and need to continue doing it. I'm going to have now a longer than usual ask me anything segment for this Friday episode that's coming up next. Stay tuned.

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[Ryan Garduski]

Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryanumbers plural numbers game podcast.com I will take any questions you have. People have asked me is so and so good looking in real life. They'll ask me out books, movies, whatever the case is. Let's get to it. I mean, it has to be semi appropriate for the show, but if it's okay, I'll still answer it. Okay. First question comes from Derek. He says, hey, Ryan, big fan of the show. I recently saw you post about Congressman Crenshaw and the insider trading after his primary loss. I used to believe that, but I don't think that's accurate now. Maybe it doesn't matter, but if you listen to the Mike Drop podcast he did in February, he brings the receipts and the proof so you can ask for the show. If he really didn't do that much of anything at all. I get what you're saying. And he talks about how Crenshaw is very talented. Yes, Crenshaw is very talented. Here's the thing. So. And maybe I misrepresented what I was saying. It is not that I was saying he does the most amount of stock trading. He doesn't. That's not the case. He defended it the loudest, which makes no sense why you would defend it the loudest if you're not doing the most of it. Right. I. And I don't think he was doing most of it. He just, you know, even Nancy Pelosi. Nancy Pelosi is all about banning stock trading for. I mean, publicly, he's banning stock trading for congressmen and she does millions of dollars in stock trades like it's crazy. But for some reason, he allowed himself to be the face of it. It made utterly no sense at all. I want to make something else very, very clear. It wasn't that he was moderate, because he wasn't moderate. I know people like to say that he was moderate, but he had a Republican voting record, like, you know, a standard Republican. He voted with Trump almost 100% of the time. The problem with Dan Crenshaw was this. He was extremely, extremely arrogant. I had friends, I have a lot of friends in the Texas political circles. They told me he started pulling his ads from Texas, from the TVs in Texas TV ads three weeks before election Day, thinking he didn't need them. So why spend the money? He insulted donors who went back to Ted Cruz to get Ted Cruz involved. He had I and I'm not making light as he has basically no friends in Congress. No one really enjoyed being around him. And even the craziest members have friends. Even George Santos had friends like you could you. He was just obsessively and obscenely arrogant and went out of his way to make people not like him. And he was very talented and he was a great communicator and it's a loss to Republicans, but it is a character flaw on his part. So I'm not saying he did the most insider trading and stock trading. I'm not saying that at all. And if I did say, if I, if I alluded to it, I'm sorry, but he chose to make himself the face of it by defending it so vocally. Once again, makes no sense. Completely arrogant. And that's why he lost. Okay, next question comes from Michael. Michael wrote Gnome has had to go. She turned Trump's strongest issue, immigration, and not only made it a liability, but made it a big positive issue for Democrats. Frankly, she wasn't smart enough and experienced enough to run dhs. Here's the rumor on the street. You want to hear it? Allegedly. Let me take a sip of water for this one. Allegedly. After Trump's victory, he allegedly reached out to Corey Lewandowski and allegedly said to Corey, I like to offer you some kind of job for being so loyal. And Corey really went to bat for Christie and Trump nodded Christie on true Social and allegedly his. He has a tendency Trump when he's worked up, when he's angry, when someone can press his buttons in the right way, if he's alone to take to truth social to proclaim something. And once it's out in the ether, it's out in the ether. There's no one who's going to take it back. So maybe, possibly there was allegedly the same situation going on with, with, with Corey, Christie and Trump where Trump was all worked up. He was, you know, that Corey was, you know, by without along with them and was really pushing for, for Trump to, to pick Christie and was doing it before everyone was, was on the same page with it. Allegedly. Who knows, maybe it's untrue. But I've heard it from a bunch of people you write. But is. By the way, for those who are watching this program on YouTube, this is my dog on my lap. It's not. I have this. He just won't shut up. So he's sitting in my lap while I'm answering these questions. But is you asked? But is Mullen really the best choice to take over? He has no law enforcement experience or any experience running a large bureaucracy, but plus he's very combative. Much of the administration's problems is how their spokesman come across as unnecessarily aggressive. Gnome was a failure with the whole girl boss Persona. Okay, well, here's the thing. So is he the best Congress on immigration? Best center on immigration? No, he's not. But on interior enforcement and on border security, he has an A rating from number usa. So there's that. That's the job. He's got an A rating where it matters. Right? So take that for what it's worth. Secondly, he will not be on an island by himself. Right? There will still be people like Tom Holman who was completely sidelined according to Politico by the Lewandowski gnome. You know, click P S. By the way, this story of the $220 million were the ads and who, which. Which companies got those bids and how they were connected to Corey Christie and their affiliates is not going away. If Democrats take over, there will. I will bet to my bottom dollar there will be an indictment going on over this. And if they take over the presidency, there will be a special counsel possibly or just a. The attorney general will. Will make some kind of effort to get them behind bars for this, for, for corruption. I'm just side note to everything. I've been thinking about this a lot lately and the more I look at it, the actual. The worse it gets with Christy, Corey and their click. Anyway, back to Mullen. He's not alone on the island. He will self Stephen Miller. I think he will lean heavier on Tom Holman, which is a good thing. Holman's experience. He's very smart. And, and yeah, and I, I think that he's gonna, I think he's gonna be part of the team. I think he's made a team player was what you need. And I say give him a chance. You know, he wouldn't be my first pick, but he wouldn't be on my radar at all just because I wouldn't consider him for that job. But apparently Trump did. And let's just hope for the best. You also ask about President Trump firing Pam Bondi. I don't think that's going to happen. I think he really likes Pam Bondi. I know she scored the Epstein files. Allegedly she was in a bathroom with influencers, the ladies bathroom talking very loudly about how Anna Paulina Luna, the congressman from Florida was pushing her on the issue and how much she hated Anna Paulina Luna for pushing on the issue and that's kind of why she released those binders full of nothing. Okay, next question comes from Connor. Connor goes. Hey Ryan, huge fan of your work. Excited to have you your own show. Thanks Connor. I made 25 year old male that grew up in South Erie County, New York a fellow New Yorker although that's like western New York in a town called Concord. Went to school the University of Alabama. There you go. Was a Catholic college miss Missionary for the last two years in a different southern state and about to start a new job at an actuary in Atlanta. I don't know what an actuary does. I think that's. I don't know what it does. Good luck to you though. I grew very political conservative family and culture shaped a lot of my opinions in early college. This area is ground zero for rust belt decline and American stagnation and she was one of the few to call out trade policies and immigration causes. Side note, I'm praying for her conversion. I don't, I don't think that that's going to happen. It's one of the things we talk about politics a lot. We, we've learned to stop talking too much about religion Ann and I. Okay, questions. W.N. western New York is largely forgotten about in the context of national politics. Do you have an insight into the future trends, our political history, the area? Yes, because New York state is out of play. If New York, if western New York was its own state or upstate, whatever that really means, I guess west of Albany was its own state. It would 100% be in play right now because it would be a swing state. Because New York state is not a swing state. It is not given any kind of coverage. It's unfair. I think it's completely unfair. I think that part of New York is desperately needs some kind of intervention and some kind of help Places that towns that were amazing and then like Kodak left. I forget which city it was and it just devastated, I maybe lost Rochester just devastated it and like that whole area, Niagara, Jamestown, Erie, Buffalo, it, it absolutely needs help. But that's really why because it's in a blue state. Otherwise if it was in, if it was in Pennsylvania, if that was part of Pennsylvania, it would 1 million percent get a lot of coverage. Is there any data on how people vote that move to a different state? For example, what are the political characteristics of California or New Yorkers that move to Tennessee or Georgia? This is a great question. The New York Times, I get this question asked a lot. The New York Times did a fabulous breakdown of how voters are moving. Most voters who are Democrat move to Democrat super areas so they don't go. Most Democrats do not move to a purple area. They do not move to a red area. They may move to a red state, but they will only move to the bluest parts of that red state. And what happened during COVID especially Governor DeSantis team calling this. What happened during COVID was so many New Yorkers and so many Democrats from across the country really bought the media's big bag of bullshit on on Covid statistics that they thought moving to Texas or Florida was a death sentence. They were like, absolutely not. You know, it's death Santas, millions of people gonna die in that state because they are not all wearing masks and living in plastic bubbles. And that kept people Democrats far away from those states. It really supercharged the Republican enrollment registration over in Florida. Okay, last question you asked. Maybe too personal free to ignore. Clearly pro life positions are an electoral millstone. I love JD Vance for being but I'm saddened to see him move away from his total pro life position. Although I'm completely understanding given the political context. I know you have mentioned New York Catholic. Do you have a difficult time watching the Republican Party slowly drift left on social issues? Is there any data to indicate that some republics will eventually sit things out of the party goes too far left. Okay, this is a. So I worked for JD And I am Catholic. No, I'm not saying because the Republican Party's job is to represent voters. The Republican Party's job is to get people elected to office. Your job as a Catholic clearly a very serious one. Your job as a, you know, pro life person is to try to reduce the number of abortions. It's very difficult for JD to or whoever Trump to say we need more abortion laws restrictions when all the states that have done the restrictions are Republican states. Now you could sit there and say we should and I know you said sit there and say but you could say we should try to force this on the blue states. But we've gotten a lot done on the red states. The progression on the pro life movement is so immense. You know, you're 25 years old. So I'm not saying you're dumb, but you. I don't mean to say like, but you're not. I'm saying you've gotten a much smaller series of life experiences and maybe knowledge on the political past. I would say 2012. I want to say 2012 was the first time the Republican Party, or maybe even 2016, was the first time the Republican Party had only pro lifers running for president on their party's ticket. That's how re. That is how much the pro choice part of the party was very dominant. I know the narrative is that they never, you know, Republicans were always against abortion. Yes, there were wings, the Republican Party always against abortion. But as a whole, there were a plethora of pro choicers that dominated the party. I mean, all you have left now is Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins. Really, at the Senate anyway, you have a handful of people in the House and that's about it. The progression of the Republican Party to spend decades working to nominate pro life judges to get Roe v. Wade overturned. And if your goal, and this is what I always express to pro lifers who are disappointed, your goal should be one goal, reduce the number of abortions. Until Roe was overturned, the number of abortions nationwide was significantly declining and then it spiked up. So the goal should not be, hey, let's pass an abortion man everywhere. We should go back, you know, several stages before Roe was overturned. And what was the pro life movement doing? Let's make sure that abortion clinics are near hospitals. Let's make sure that there are more regulations on the abortion industry, make it more difficult for abortion clinics to operate, and that will put them out of business. That's what a pro life movement was doing until Roe was overturned. And then they said, no, actually, forget all these laws. Let's just get it banned everywhere. Even though it was not politically feasible. Do what's politically feasible to achieve your goal. Don't ask for a purity task. I'm not yelling at you, but don't ask for a purity task. Where you're saying it has to be this way, no, let's just reduce the number of dead babies, however that may be, and that may look different in different places, and that may not be possible in certain places right now, but where it's possible, do what's possible. And where it is impossible, look to change it. That is the real message that I would say. And as far as other social policies, yeah, gay marriage is out the door. That's not the issue. And I think that that's, you know that is very clear to everybody. It's like the gun issue. Do you know, in 1987, in the year that I was born, the only state to have constitutional carry was Vermont. Texas was. It had so many regulations on guns. States in the west had so many regulation regulations on guns, it was insane. A majority of states now have constitutional carry, including half of the states in New England. So you may say the social, the conservative movement isn't winning anything, hasn't conserved anything. It. That's a. It's nonsense. It's just not true. People have spent decades building this and doing little things here and there and here and there that have made tremendous progress. It's not perfect, but America is safer today than it ever has been. America's got more pro life bills, you know, in law since the 1970s, there are more rights to own guns than ever before. I think going back like the revolution, there are immense gains that even social conservatives have made. Where they have failed is that not everybody has been carried out in their own personal lives, which the government can't control. And you shouldn't ask it to. You should do the most for what you can with what you have. Okay, more Ask Me Anything is coming up next.

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[Ryan Garduski]

okay, it's time for more. Ask me anything this Question comes from Kelly. She says, hey Ryan, love your show. I'd like to hear your thoughts about the Illinois gubernatorial election. I'm a lifelong Illinois resident who despises Pritzker and he has done to our state, particularly during COVID Darren Bailey seems to be the front runner for the Republican nomination, but he already lost the Pritzker ones personally. Like Ted Dabrowski. I mean fellow Polo. Hello. But I'm not sure he has enough support. Would love to hear your thoughts on the candidate if they have a shot being Pritzker. Yeah, Pritzker. I mean listen, Pritzker's got a gajillion dollars. He's rich as anything. There's no way to, to kind of circle that. And he's the incumbent. It's just going to be very difficult. I'm looking if there's any polls right now. I've seen them, but I haven't seen Republicans really make any inroads anywhere enough. You know, the problem is, is that so Illinois, even worse than New York is so dominated by such a heavy population concentration in one specific area. And whenever a state has that, you really have a difficulty where that state calls all the shots and Chicago just calls all the shots. Chicago and the surrounding suburbs and a lot of those suburbs are just woke lefty places. I mean that's just the truth of it. So Republicans can make. And Democrats have done a tremendous job gerrymandering. Tremendous. I mean one of the most talented gerrymandering I think in the entire country. Both in Congress and in the state legislature. They did it hook, line and sinker to make sure voters have no say in anything. They just did. Democrats were, I mean, listen, hats off to Democrats. You did it. You made sure you disenfranchise every voter in Illinois and you did it. Right. So so far in. So I'm looking at the polls right now. So far Bailey has a significantly, but it's not, you know, overwhelming. And in the general election right now, Pritzker has a 20 point lead. I just think that Illinois is just in a rough shape. I mean it's, it's, it's just in rough shape right now. I don't know how else to say it. I mean, I know New York is, I know a lot of other places are, but Illinois is in probably. Of all the big blue states, Illinois is probably in the worst shape that there is. I think it's even in worship in California. Okay, next question comes from John. Another wasn't, by the way, Kelly, that wasn't an uplifting Thing. I know, I know I usually give a positive thing, but it's, it's not great in Illinois. I. If there is a. If there is a strong candidate who's going to run, they're going to run, wait until Pritzker is no longer the nominee and have a vacant seat in a better year. Maybe that's the ray of hope. Next question comes from John. John. Hi Ryan. Are there any state propositions to amend the constitutions to require voter ID in state and federal elections? How hard is it to get a proposition on the ballot? What does it cost an AZ? We had a proposition 309, but it lost by 18,000 votes in 2022. Help me understand the results versus supposed 80% broad support for voter ID the media claims as it really has broad support. It seems that voter ID should have the advances advanced by the right like abortion and was ensconced in the state constitution by the left. Okay, thank you. That's a really great question. So it depends on the state, state, state by state. There is a multitude of different ways to get a ballot proposition. Some states don't even have ballot propositions, but it is, it is a multitude of different states that, that have a different regulation. So it's impossible for me to say can you get it here? Can you get it there? I don't know. As far as propositions to get voter ID on the ballot, I have not seen any as of yet. They should have already been, they should have already been processed. We would already have seen them. Usually, usually there's a signatory like you need signatures and money and time. It's. I would say it's less money than it is just you need a ton of volunteers and someone with a little political knowledge. No dates and deadlines and requirements as far as that goes. And when you file anything that comes with signatures, you always need to get more because people claim a signature is bad or it's not the right person or it's not the right signature. And they always federal signatures. So if they requires 10,000 signatures, you need 30,000 signatures, that kind of thing. As far as the proposition goes for I had not heard of this one before you sent me the email. As for Proposition 309 in Arizona, I was not aware of it before you had mentioned it. Yeah, there was a proposition to require. The exact quote was the exact phrase was it would require voter ID on mail in ballots. So it says a vote for yes was making multiple changes to Arizona voter identification and mail and ballot policies including a required dates of birth and voter ID number for mail in ballots and eliminating the existing two document alternative to photo ID for in person voting. It lost 4,50 point. They voters said no 50.38 to 49.62. Very, very, very close. It was about, yeah, 18,500 votes. So I'm looking up this, this, this case and all I can come down to as to why I think this is right after the, you know, Arizona claim that the election was stolen, which you can or cannot believe. I'm not going to relitigate it, but it left a lot of people in Arizona with very, very sour grapes. And I think that Carrie Lake running the campaign that she ran, as she ran it made the issue associated issue with her and voters did not like her. And I think that it really affected kind of everybody. And Democrats had a surge that year. So I can sit there and tell you is that Democrats had a surge of the year and they were voting against anything that reminded them that the election was stolen. I don't know because usually those ballot measures when they're brought up for a vote actually passed. So I don't know. Try it again. I think if they brought up again, it probably would pass. Arizona, by the way, was a state that did not recognize, recognize Martin Luther King Day and it was brought for a vote and they voted it down and they voted for it. So bring it up for a vote again. Okay, next question comes from Junipera writes, hey Ryan, hope you're getting through Lent without many breaks to your sacrifices. I have broken it twice. Gina Piro I gave up secular music for Lent and I listen to music all day long every day. So it's actually been a sacrifice. And I have to tell you, the problem is Christian rock is genuinely awful. I mean, there's like a few people who do a decent job, but it's genuinely some of the worst music I've ever heard. There's a guy who sings a song called Counting My Blessings. He's good. There's literally there's like a handful, there's maybe like five people who do a decent job. No one is like an amazing job. And I like, I like a lot of gospel music, but you can only listen to it so many times. Like it's been very, very rough this Lent. I thought that it was going to be much easier. It is not. What does the data show about the value of phone banking for campaigns? Not in polling. I worked on a congressional campaign a few years ago and after 2,000 phone calls, I had fewer than 10 conversations, more than five minutes longer than the vast majority of people who didn't pick up, hang up immediately, or already have their mind set up on the issues. Putting aside the advice of professional campaign consultants who charge exorbitant fees even in unwinnable races, is there any real value to phone banking? In my opinion? This is not what every consultant will tell you, in my opinion. Not anymore. There once was. That's absolutely true. Once upon a time, phone banking made a big difference. And also, if you have volunteers that have nothing to do, you, you might as well have them. Phone bank, you got to do something, right? If you have a bunch of older women there and they want to do something to help you and they can't door knock, well, then, yes, then go. Go make phone calls. If you have that time, it can't be your whole entire campaign. And I would say the way you do it probably properly is you call people. If I was in charge of a phone bank, what I would do is this. Organize the list of voters 60 and older and 16 younger. And during the day, you call people 16 older, more likely retire, more likely be home, more likely to answer the phone, call them during the day. They're out shopping, they have time to sit there and talk for a little bit or they're not working is the point. They're not working. And then at. In the PM hours, I would get foreign language, foreign language speakers or bilingual speakers and have them on the phone with people of the same surname that they speak the language for. I would not call the average Joe in the, in the evening. No one answers the phone because of that. That's what I would do. So. Yes. Can it be used effectively? Yes. Is it often used effectively? No. And it's really the only way you want to use it is if you have volunteers, specifically senior citizens who can't really walk. They can't go sign waving. They have to sit for long periods of time, but they have the time. They should be out doing the phone calling for free. Consultants should not pay enormous amounts of fees for it. You can get burner phones, you can get call systems that dial automatically, whatever the case is. But that's my best advice for phone banking. I would not. If I was. I was actually just doing a school board election and they asked if I wanted to pay for phone banking, and I said no. Okay, last question comes from Sam. Sam says, hey, Ryan, big fan and longtime listener. You held up your own against my, my client, Michael Tracy. The SoHo forum. That was such a great form. I really enjoyed that. And Michael was a really, really Nice guy. I. It was not the first time I met him, but he was a really pleasant person to talk to. His mom was there. And if my memory serves me correct, I actually beat him at that forum in the debate. But he was very, very nice. I really don't like. Not that most of them might not know who Michael Tracy is, but he's a left wing blogger and writer and reporter and he's made a big story about how he thinks a lot of the people who claimed to be abused by Epstein, their allegations would not stand up in court. And it's very thought provoking. I don't know if I agree with it. I'm not like an expert on the Epstein stuff, but I find it intriguing and worth listening. And the way people have treated him and they've said, you know, he's being paid off. He's. He's working for Mossad. Whatever the case they've said is really kind of gross. I just think he's a deeply intellectual and thoughtful person and he's asking important questions. So where those questions lead, I'm not exactly sure, but I don't think that he's doing a bad thing by asking them. Okay. You said last week someone had a question about opposition to Virginia Democrats redistricting effort. I'm sure you know this already, but just in case Eric Cantor, Jason Miaras and a few others formed a group in opposition to the new maps despite the GOP leadership. It's a bipartisan effort and the first TBs are airing tomorrow. Okay, awesome. So they're already airing. Here is the link. It's called va fairmaps.com Please feel free to spread the word. Bafairmaps.com thank you so much, Sam. That is so great. I definitely. Well, I did already, but I'll share, I'll tweet it. I think that that's really, really important. And I think that I think politicians should not pick their voters. Voters should pick their politicians. It gets me annoyed when both parties do it, but now it's getting to a place where it's going to be like really insane as, as time starts picking up and there's kind of the train has left the station. I'm not in charge. I'll just report the facts to you guys. My. It's a quote friendly. But it's my great lot in life is that I am always a godfather and never a God. So I don't get to make any decisions on anything. No one listens to me anyway. All right, guys, that's this episode I hope you enjoyed. I hope you like this podcast. If you do, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts. Wherever you get your podcasts or on YouTube, give me a thumbs up and press subscribe. I appreciate you and if you're feeling really generous this weekend, a five star review goes far so people can see the podcast. I will talk to you guys on Monday.

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