It's a Numbers Game: Winning as a Republican in Blue Connecticut with Ryan Fazio

Summary

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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (iHeartPodcasts)

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: Winning as a Republican in Blue Connecticut with Ryan Fazio
Date: August 28, 2025
Host: Ryan Grusky (sub for Clay & Buck)
Guest: Ryan Fazio (Connecticut State Senator, Republican Gubernatorial Candidate)

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode explores how Republicans can be competitive—and even win—elections in deep blue, traditionally Democratic states like Connecticut. Through an extended conversation with Ryan Fazio, a young, locally rooted Republican state senator and now candidate for governor, host Ryan Grusky delves into political strategy, the evolving landscape of state and national redistricting, challenges facing blue states, and the motivations for conservatives to remain active in places dominated by Democrats.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Redistricting: The High-Stakes Arms Race (03:45–21:27)

• Redistricting now a “full arms race” nationwide:
  • Texas & Florida: Republicans poised for several new House seats by redrawing lines (potentially +14 if Supreme Court rolls back some Voting Rights Act protections).
  • California: Democrats expected to gain seats via new maps, but a ballot initiative in November could still affect outcomes.
  • Maryland & other blue states: More districts are being drawn to favor Democrats.
  • Supreme Court impact: Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act under review (decision expected October), which could change minority-representation rules in districts and unleash a “redistricting frenzy,” especially in the Deep South.

    "If Section 2 is stricken down, it is going to be craziness... It is going to be crazy how quickly it could happen to really redistrict the last Democrats of the Deep South." — Ryan Grusky [14:45]

• Long-term perspective:
  • 2030 Census effects: Blue states are projected to lose seats, forcing more competitive or even intra-party primary fights.

    "Democrats are setting themselves up... they are putting their own Democrats in very uncomfortable positions just four years out." — Ryan Grusky [17:43]

• Why Republicans should stay and fight in blue states:
  • Even small Republican legislative minorities can prevent total Democratic control, gerrymanders, and, by extension, shape national politics.
  • Encouragement for Republicans not to simply “move to Florida” but to fight where they live and defend local interests.

    "States can change. West Virginia was one of the bluest... New Jersey was a solidly red state... Politics is impermanent in any place." — Ryan Grusky [20:00]

2. Interview: How to Win as a Republican in Deep Blue Connecticut (25:32–45:04)

Ryan Fazio’s Political Origin Story

• Began running for office at age 30, deeply motivated by economic policy and accessibility of the American Dream, specifically as a Connecticut native.

  "I just look at the state... it's a great place with great people. But like many other high-tax blue states, it's been suffering economically. It's too expensive to live here... If I wanted a job done right or better, that ultimately I had to do it myself." — Ryan Fazio [26:05]

Winning in a Strongly Democratic District

• Fazio lost his first race in 2020, but won in 2021 in a special election; his district is consistently Democratic at the federal level (Kamala Harris +16), even as he carried it at the state level.
• Keys to success:
  • Active listening:

    "So much of politics these days is who can talk the loudest. But I think listening is very important... In order to really understand what they prefer, you do have to listen to them." — Ryan Fazio [27:45]

  • Hard work and personal contact: Door-knocking, connecting with as many voters as possible at each level (local, senate, etc.).
  • Focus on core issues: High cost of living, electric rates (3rd highest in U.S.), excessive taxes, local control over decisions, public safety.

    "Electricity costs have been in the news a lot recently... Embedded in those electric rates in Connecticut is a 20%... tax to fund over 50 different government programs." — Ryan Fazio [30:07]

Concrete Policy Proposals for Affordability

• Cutting electric rates by slashing hidden taxes on bills (public benefits charge).
• A $1,500 income tax cut for the average family without drastic spending cuts but by limiting growth of spending.
• Property tax caps modeled after other states.
• Building relationships with moderate Democrats even in a likely split-government scenario; leveraging the "powerful governorship" (veto, etc.).

Supporting Down-Ballot Republicans

• Contrast between "ladder-puller" governors (like Chris Christie) and those who campaign actively for the party (like Larry Hogan, Phil Scott).
  • Fazio promises to prioritize and campaign for legislative Republicans, seeing balance in the legislature as crucial to state success.

    “If I could spend an extra hour talking to voters... I will do it in the swing state senate or house district.” — Ryan Fazio [33:47]

Connecting on Affordability and With Younger Voters

• Sincerity is key:

  "If you actually believe what you're saying, then let's also make sure that what you're saying makes sense and it's not a bunch of crap." — Ryan Fazio [35:49]

  • Shared that he has improved with young voters, even winning youth mock elections in otherwise blue districts (“I was more proud of that than I was actually of winning the entire district.” [37:19])
  • Notes on generational shifts (Gen Z potentially shifting rightward).

How Republicans Can Win Connecticut

• Emphasizes that executive offices, even in blue states, can flip if candidates focus relentlessly on core practical issues (cost of living, public safety) and maintain credibility.
• Ticket-splitting more common; good campaigns matter.

  "We have to be disciplined about what our priorities are and those are the priorities. And we also have to have some depth... There has to be that credibility there." — Ryan Fazio [39:32]

Why Stay and Fight as a Republican in a Blue State?

• Deep sense of place and community:

  "Your home is worth fighting for. The people you know intimately are worth fighting for... Place and people still matter in politics." — Ryan Fazio [42:26]

  • Expresses emotional rewards of public service in his home district and the value of representing a community one knows and understands.

Campaign Information

• Fazio encourages listeners to learn more or support at RyanFazio.com [44:26].

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Redistricting Arms Race:

  "I could do it with a box of crayons on the back of a TGIF Friday kids menu."
  — Ryan Grusky, on the ease of gerrymandering certain Democratic incumbents out in Florida [07:53]

• On Republican Minority Power:

  "It's so important that in these blue and purple states, Republicans have managed to gain an iota of political power... that stops these Democratic governors from doing to their states what Gavin Newsom is... trying to do... to make sure that the entire electorate isn't fixed against Republicans nationwide."
  — Ryan Grusky [19:22]

• On Why Fight in Blue States:

  "Politics is impermanent in any place. And Republicans, even though it could seem so dark in some areas and so lost and so unbelievably not possible it is even to gain one foothold of power somewhere. It is possible for Republicans to win."
  — Ryan Grusky [20:00]

• On Genuine Politics:

  "I think for people, I think they can tell if you care. Mom, dummy believes what he's saying... There's that sort of, like, credibility. Like, people know Trump... believes the things he's saying. They can also tell that, you know, someone like Andrew Cuomo or Kamala Harris, they don't believe the things they're saying."
  — Ryan Fazio [35:49]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment | |---------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:45–21:27 | Redistricting arms race, SCOTUS and national implications | | 25:32–45:04 | Main Interview: Ryan Fazio on winning as a Republican in blue Connecticut | | 27:45 | Fazio on keys to converting Democrat-leaning districts: Listening, prioritizing voter issues | | 30:07 | Fazio's concrete proposals to make CT affordable | | 33:47 | The role of governors in building strong local parties | | 35:49 | Fazio on authenticity, voter sincerity, and youth outreach | | 39:32 | Strategy for how to flip executive offices in blue states | | 42:26 | Emotional case for conservatives fighting for their home communities | | 44:26 | Campaign plug: RyanFazio.com |

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Ask Me Anything Segment (49:33–54:07)

• How to spot a legitimate pollster: A real pollster will never say who they’re polling for; they don’t solicit money or sell polling data.
• Legalities of California’s redistricting and Voting Rights Act: If a map is struck down as VRA-noncompliant, courts appoint someone to redraw district lines, often with unpredictable results.
• Listener advice: If approached by a pollster who’s too transparent about their client or starts asking for donations, they're likely not legitimate.

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Overall Tone

Conversational, pragmatic, and optimistic about the long-term political prospects of Republicans in blue states. Both host and guest stress the importance of authenticity, personal connection to place, and practical solutions over ideological purity or national party lines.

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Conclusion

This episode offers a detailed look at both the high-level redistricting battle and the personal, grassroots strategies Republicans can employ to compete—and potentially win—in blue states like Connecticut. Ryan Fazio’s experience and outlook provide encouragement and tactics for conservatives everywhere: stay, fight, focus on what matters locally, listen to your neighbors, and never write off a state as hopelessly lost.

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Transcript

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[Ryan Grusky]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you all for being here yet again. I want to start off the show with a couple announcements. First, our release time has changed. If you didn't know. Our Monday podcast episodes are coming out at 5pm instead of the morning release. It was a decision by management to change the release times to try to broaden the listenership and I hope you will stay with the show and listen at our new time or listen the next morning when you're on a way on your way to work or school or wherever you're listening. I'm going to continue to bring you useful information and hope you can sit there and join us along. Secondly, I'm at the beginning stages of setting up a video podcast for a YouTube channel. It will be out sometime this fall I believe. So I've gotten a lot of requests asking for a full video podcast because some of you want to watch me. I'm not exactly sure why, but you will be able to see it sometime this fall and we're going to go along and I'm very, very excited for that. I'm going to tee that up when it actually happens. Lastly, I brought this up a while ago. I don't know who remembers and who doesn't, but I'm going to do a special episode for the 911 anniversary on 9 11. It will be coming out. The 911 is a Thursday this year. My Podcast is released on Thursday. So I want to bring on my family members who worked in the World Trade Center. I my lifelong New Yorker, born and raised, and my mom, I've talked this before. She worked on the 97th floor of Tower One for Marshall McLennan. My uncle was a window washer. I had a lot of people who are family members. They worked as cops and through an act of luck and God's grace and everything, no, everyone survived. Like, it was a truly miracle for me who I had in my life that were down there. They all lived. A lot of people I knew growing up did not have that experience. A lot of people I knew lost a dad, especially a lot of dads I knew or just relatives and uncles. So I am going to do an episode on that special and I have invited my family members to come to talk about that day because, you know, I, it doesn't. It's so funny. 911 feels like it's something I that was like five years ago, if I unless I think about it and I realize how long it was, I have employees that like, they weren't alive for it and they, or they were just born. And the people who were there, a lot of them are very healthy and they've got a long life ahead of them, but they won't be around forever. And for all the coverage has ever been done, a lot of times from the perspective of leaders or Mayor Giuliani or people who are on the ground, a lot of them haven't been from people who were just working there. And that was my family. And I think I could bring an interesting conversation and perspective. They haven't all agreed yet. I have a few holdouts, but I'm trying to convince them. But that will be out, I guess in two weeks for a special episode. So I've mentioned in the past and I'm kind of figuring all other details out and making sure that they're all comfortable because they're very private people. But I think it will be really, really nice to that kind of conversation and very cathartic for me. And yeah, I hope you'll all be there for that. So, all right, let's get to the topic of the show. And. And it is the Cold war that is the redistricting fight that is now a full arms race across the country. And I want to preface my by starting to say that I know I've talked about redistricting ad nauseam. I know you're probably like, I can't do one more redistricting podcast episode. Ryan. I Got you. I understand and I put you all through it. But this will be the last one for a while, like, but it needs to be said because it is, it's, it's now happening across the country. Like we are at a spark point where the map is going to look very different in multiple states in 2026. So first, Texas passed their redistricted map. They have five new Republican seats. California is going forward with their new map which will give four new Democratic seats in California. They still have a vote for the popular vote by the people in November. Polls show that it is favored among the people so far by a 16 point lead according to the new Berkeley poll. So Republicans are spending a lot of money. Kevin McCarthy is coming up there. Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaigning against it. There's still a time for it to go down. I mean, polls are not predictors of the future. They're just snapshots of the present. So who knows? But right now, definitely the momentum is on Gavin Newsom's side. Things can change though. Other states, like Democrat Governor of Maryland Wes Moore has announced he's going to redistrict the sole Republican seat in Maryland to a Democratic seat. So that will take Democrats and give them another seat in Congress. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis though has sat there and said that he's preparing to redistrict Florida. Florida currently has 20 Republicans and eight Democrats. Well, Florida has become so Republican and it's so balanced in their Republican and how Republicans vote. Like it's not like it's all concentrated in one place that Republicans could very easily draw out four or five Democrats into Republican districts. Congressman Darren Soto, Kathy Kathy Castor, Louis Frankel, Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz are all the most likely people to end up finding themselves in a Republican district. That be very, very difficult for them to win. People are asking me if it would be easy, especially for Wasserman Schultz because I mean she was the former spokesman for the dnc. She gets a lot of hate from Republicans, some rightfully so. If it would be easy to redistrict her and I'm like, it's so easy, I could do it with a box of crayons on the back of a TGIF Friday kids menu. Like she can easily be drawn into a Republican district. Trump and Vice President Vance have also made headway in getting Indiana. Consider redistricting. Indiana easily can draw one Republican district in the northwest part of the state. They could probably even do two in the Indianapolis seat if they get creative. Missouri as well, is considering redrawing their one seat in western Missouri. Missouri in the Kansas City area. Other states have joined the conversation. Nebraska, Kansas. I don't know how serious they are in that. The biggest question comes though, with the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court in will decide. I think it's in December or it's October. Rather, in October we'll have. We'll decide on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The Section 2 of the Voting Rights Rights act forces states to draw congressional districts where minorities will get proper representation and a vote for people that represent them, I. E. Other minorities. Like they say, unless the district will vote for a black person in a black majority district, then it's not really. Then it's an interruption of the Voting Rights Act. So the court is having this big fight over Louisiana. Louisiana was forced to draw a second black majority district in the state and Alabama was as well. But the Louisiana case is going to the Supreme Court. If the court sits there and says not only does Louisiana not have to have a second black majority district, but the entire Section two of the Voting Rights act is no longer constitutional. Extends from the 1960s. We don't have the same. We don't have the same barriers to voting that they did back then. Jim Crow is obviously not a thing anymore. Neither are poll taxes. Well, then if that happens, if Section two is stricken down, it is going to be craziness because Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia are all going to start redistricting. Those are nine House seats that Democrats have in those very, very red states or purple states in Georgia's case. But in the very red states in the rest of the country where they could easily draw out Democratic districts like Jim Clyburn will be gone. Like, he will have no chance of reelection if they strike down the Voting Rights act because his district is very easy to draw into a very Republican district. Same thing in Alabama. Same thing in. In for the two Democrats in Alabama. Same thing for the one Democrat Bonnie Thompson in Mississippi. In Georgia, you could draw out two Democrats. It is going to be crazy how quickly it could happen to really redistrict the last Democrats of the Deep South. So, and there's also, by the way, there's Ohio. Ohio is considering redistricting now. Three Democrat seats into Republican seats. So for those who are counting with me in just Indiana, Ohio, Texas and Florida, Republicans have the ability to really draw 14 new Republican seats if the Voting Rights act is struck down, which I don't know because, I mean, the Supreme Court does what they want to do. If it is struck down, that number goes to 22, 22 or 23, whether or not North Carolina can pass it, because I don't think they have the supermajority anymore. So probably not. But 22, 22 seats can be drawn for Republicans. Even with California and Maryland redistricting for Democrats, that number for how things have changed goes to plus 17 for Republicans. That 17 more Republican districts. Even when you subtract what's going to what will likely be lost in California and Maryland, that is really big. I mean, Democrats have just won another court case in Utah where they have to draw Salt Lake county into one seat, which is a very Democratic part of Utah. Even with that, they will still have Republicans will stop netted 16 seats, not on top of the majority that they have. It becomes much harder for Democrats then to sit there and to win the House in the midterms. Not impossible. Still not impossible. Anything can happen, but it becomes much more difficult because these House seats are so Republican or so Democrat that they're not competitive. The number of competitive seats is like a dozen. So it becomes extremely difficult for Democrats. And President Trump and Vice President Vance are really working hard to convince legislators to go over the line, redistrict and give the Republicans as many safe seats as humanly possible going to this election. Democrats are in this position where they don't have as many states to work with because they already gerrymander the first time in places like Illinois, in places like Oregon and Connecticut and Massachusetts and New Jersey, which New Jersey is a quote unquote independent commission. But let's be honest, it is Democrat gerrymander. They. There are, there are districts in Connecticut that are joined by the water. There's no landmass or bridge to connect them. So Republicans, Republicans really have this ability to sit there and change it ahead of the midterms. What I think is at stake long term, which no one's talking about and no one's even thinking about, is that we are only two election cycles out till 2030, which I know 2030 seems like it's a million years away, but it's not. And then the census comes out and states start redistricting. And in the 2030 census, it is extremely likely that states like California and New York and Illinois and Rhode island are all losing congressional districts. Early estimates say that California will lose three, Illinois will lose one, and New York will lose two. I've heard that New York might lose one and Illinois will lose two. It's gone back and forth, but it's 6 overall by gerrymandering ahead of time in places like Illinois and in California, New York is not as gerrymandered as those two states. But in Illinois and in California, Democrats are setting themselves up in a position where they're going to force Democrats to go at each other because they've already lumped every possible Republican voter in the same district. So it's not like they can take out many more Republicans. They're gonna sit there and have to take out their own. And they're putting their own Democrats in very uncomfortable positions just four years out where you'll see incumbents having to face off of each other if they want to keep the level of, you know, Democratic districts that are uncompetitive so high they can make competitive districts if they wanted to, but they don't want to. And with President Trump aggressively working to deport illegal immigrants and the fore born population shrinking this year, who knows how that's going to shake up California and Illinois. New York depend on immigrants. I've talked with this a lot in this podcast. They depend on immigration, both legal and illegal, to bolster lower levels of domestic migration of American citizens wanting to move to their states because it's so highly regulated and so many taxes and so expensive to live in. And also it's woke as hell in some parts of the state. I think that unless places like North Carolina or Georgia or Arizona take hard turns to the left, which maybe Georgia will, we are going to see ourselves in the 2000-30s go to a place where Democrats can't win on the White House unless they win Georgia, unless they win the all the blue, blue wall states, unless they win Arizona again, it will become very difficult for them in the House because of this. Like Democrats are putting themselves in the position long term. That makes the 2030 decade a very tough decade for them. And I think that what's lost in this entire conversation are states that are not talked about. Right? Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, they all have Democratic governors. Why aren't they in the middle of this redistricting fight where all these people are. Gavin Newsom is launching a presidential race de facto by redistricting. He is saying, I am the great resistor, I will fight Trump. He's using very involuntary, like very violent language. Why is, why aren't like Tim Waltz, Tim Waltz wants to run for president. He would love to be a presidential figure. Why is he not doing this? Well, because he can't. Because he lost the state legislature, because Arizona state legislature, despite them having a Democratic governor, have two of the Republican state Senate and the Republican state House. Republicans have the state Senate in Pennsylvania, Republicans of the state house in Michigan. It's so important that in these blue and purple states, Republicans have managed to gain an iota of political power, an iota of a presence that stops these Democratic governors from doing to their states what Gavin Newsom is and Wes Moore in Maryland are trying to do to their states that makes sure that the entire electorate isn't fixed against Republicans nationwide. And that's what I want to talk about for this upcoming interview for this thing. Is it worth Republicans? I know I have a lot of Republicans who listen to this podcast in blue states. Is it worth staying in your blue state and fighting? The answer is obviously yes to a certain degree. I mean, depends how blue the state is, but the answer is obviously yes. Because if it were not for those Republicans who stayed in Michigan when Gretchen Whitmer was going full tilt boogie on Covid, that won the state House back, well, Michigan will very well may be the next California. Same thing with the Democrat Republicans who stayed in Minnesota year after year after year after year. And what we've seen in a lot in the last election, anyways, the Republicans, they gained a lot in state legislators across the country. In California, in Hawaii, in Vermont, in Colorado, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico, all these blue and purple states, Republicans gained not enough to flip, even though they got very close in Vermont and Maine, not enough to flip the legislature, but they gained significant amount. Had they done the job of flipping the legislature, will we be in a completely different conversation had Republicans won the state House or state Senate in Vermont? And I think, sorry, not Vermont, California. And they won, I think, four seats total. Had they done that, well, Gavin Newsom wouldn't have the ability to do this. He'd just be, you know, screaming, you know, on MSNBC or CNN or Fox or something like that. He wouldn't have the ability to sit there and redistrict. That's why, you know, a lot of pundits sit there and say, just leave your blue state, just get out of New Jersey. Just go out of New Jersey and get to Florida and we'll all live in Florida together and we'll sing Kumbaya and dance in a circle and just embrace the sun. And I get the appeal of that. However, we are coming to a place in so many of these states where it is possible, and we've seen this in the voter registration numbers, it's possible to win a governorship, to win a state Senate, to win a state house, to effect change on a national level by winning locally. It's really important to put yourself in that context of how close we've gotten in a number of these big blue states and how we have done successfully in Minnesota and Michigan and Pennsylvania to keep them from going full, full tilt. California states can change. I think that it's important to realize states can change. West Virginia was one of the bluest states in this country from the 30s to the 1990s, right? The legislator was Democrat to the 2000s. New Jersey was a solidly red, solidly red state. What I think that it's important to think of is, is that politics is impermanent in any place. And Republicans, even though it could seem so dark in some areas and so lost and so unbelievably not possible it is even to gain one foothold of power somewhere. It is possible for Republicans to win. With me this week. My guess is Some is a Republican who's walked the walk. He's ran for office in a deep blue area, he's won his seat in a deep blue area and now he's running for governor and he's saying to Republicans, stay and fight with me and let's sit there and take the seat of power for common sense and quality of life and everything that he believes in in a deep blue state. And let's see if that will affect the country as a whole. That entry is coming up right after this.

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[Ryan Grusky]

Ryan Fazio is a state senator from Connecticut's 36th district, which is, if you're looking at a map, is the area of like Greenwich, New Canaan, North Stanford. Ryan is having a very busy summer. On August 10, he announced he's engaged and August 13 that he was running for governor of the state. That's a lot in 72 hours. Rya Ryan, so thank you for being here. I know you are a very busy guy.

[Ryan Fazio]

Yeah, well, compared to that week, this feels like nothing.

[Ryan Grusky]

So Ryan, you first ran for office when you were 30 years old in 2020. What made you decide to get involved in running for office at a relatively young age?

[Ryan Fazio]

You know, it was just something that was so in my heart and in my gut. I grew up in the district that I represent now in the state Senate. I grew up in Connecticut. And I just look at the state, I think it's a great place with great people. But like many other high tax blue states, it's been suffering economically. It's too expensive to live here. I care a lot about economic policy. I care a lot about making sure the American dream is accessible to all people regardless of their station in life. And I thought that if I wanted a job done right or better, that ultimately I had to do it myself. So I resigned from the job I was in and ran for the state Senate. And I've been in the state Senate for now three terms, about four or five years and it's been a great experience. But I think there's more that the state government needs to do, far more. And that's why I've ultimately chosen to run for higher office.

[Ryan Grusky]

Well, you lost your first race in 2020 and won the following year in a special election. And you've been a prime target for Democrats in the state. They spent a lot of money against you. Every year you've run, your district has voted consistently Democrat at the federal level that Kamala Harris won it by 16 points in the same year, you won it by three points. So describe a Harris Fazio voter. Like, how do you reach people who vote for Democrats federally? Because I think that's a lot. A big question. A lot of Republicans stress with. They say, how do I reach voters who, you know, they either don't like Trump or they like the Democrats, or they agree with them on this issue or that issue, but they, you know, understand that there's a common sense or quality of life issue that you could talk to him about.

[Ryan Fazio]

I think. I think it's a few things. First, you gotta listen. You know, so much of politics these days is who can talk the loudest. But I think listening is very important. And I don't mean that in a cliche sense. You know, we do still have a democracy. People still do choose what they prefer. Maybe not what they like, but what they prefer. And in order to really understand what they prefer, you do have to listen to them. And then I think you have to work really hard. You have to try to, you know, acquaint yourself with as many people who you're trying to represent as possible. So hard work, I think on a state Senate level, certainly on a state representative or a first selectman or a city council level, how many doors you knock is going to be very important. Once you get to the state Senate, it's kind of in between. I do knock on a lot of doors, but then once you get to the congressional level or the gubernatorial level, then you have to find a way to press flesh in different ways. But I would say working hard to try to acquaint yourself with as many people as possible and then focusing on the issues that matter to the most number of people and prioritizing those. For us in Connecticut, it's the high cost of electricity, it's the high taxes. It's other kind of idiosyncratic issues like whether decisions can be made locally or at the state level regarding development and other things. Maybe public safety is fourth. So I would say it's listening, then focusing on the issues that the most people care about religiously and then working really hard to acquaint yourself with as many people you're trying to represent as possible.

[Ryan Grusky]

Connecticut's an interesting state because I grew up in New York, and when I was young, Connecticut was considered an ideal. It was much safer than New York City was certainly in the early 90s when I was growing up. It had no income tax until 1991. And Republicans had the governorship for a long time. They had. They were at least competitive at the state legislative level. They had the state senate a few times in the 80s and 90s and they were tied in 2017. And then it just takes this very sharp turn. How, as governor, if you had that role, would you be able to make Connecticut more affordable? An ideal location, especially for people from Massachusetts and New York who are like, I got to get out of here, but I have to like live somewhere close by. I have a relative, I have a job, whatever, but I don't, I can't live to Florida, but I want to. I got to get out of where I am right now. How do you make a Connecticut more affordable like that?

[Ryan Fazio]

Well, as you said, Connecticut is a really great place. You got really great people. There's so much working in its advantage. You know, it's why people move out here, like almost like as a rite of passage. You know, they age out of New York City, they come, they look to Connecticut. Fewer people are doing that because it is so expensive and the opportunity is lesser than it used to be. But you don't need to make it the most affordable place in the country. I mean, that would be difficult to do. You just need to make it reasonable. So for instance, electricity costs have been in the news a lot recently, but they've been top of mind in Connecticut for longer than the rest of the country. We have the third highest electric rates in the country. Embedded in those electric rates in Connecticut is a 20%, what it's called a public benefits charge. It's really a tax to fund over 50 different government programs. Basically, the politicians in the state government in Connecticut, they exhausted their ability to tax people's incomes and their, their purchases so much in the state budget that they started taxing them through their electric bills. That was hidden for many, many years until I passed a law two years ago that requires it be disclosed how much this public benefits charge is in people's electric bill every month. We can cut that, reduce electric rates by 20%. I think that not only makes Connecticut more affordable, for example, but it also creates more investment and job creation, especially in heavy industry, technology, manufacturing and so on. You just have to limit the growth of spending in the state in order to cut taxes substantially. I have a plan for $1,500 income tax cut for the average family. And that doesn't even require cutting again spending, just reducing the growth of spending, reducing debt funded spending and then also capping property taxes. Other states have done property tax caps. Connecticut is in the top five for highest property tax burdens in the country. I think there are ways to do this without too much difficulty to make Connecticut more affordable. And then finally, I would say the probability is that when I'm elected governor, I will still have at least a state house that is Democrat because the state house has not been Republican in my lifetime, not since 1986. The state Senate sometimes will catch a lightning in a bottle. The governorship we have won several times in my lifetime, but it's a powerful governorship. There's a line item veto. So there's a lot of leverage you have as governor. Not only that, I think I have success in building relationships with moderate Democrats to move things forward. So. So I think I wouldn't do this if I didn't think it could be done. It can be done.

[Ryan Grusky]

You know, a lot of times with blue state Republican governors, there's two types, right? Like there's like Larry Hogan and current governor of Vermont whose name just. Yeah. Phil Scott, as I'm trying to reach it. Phil Scott and Larry Hogan for as much, you know, bad names as they get from national conservative outlets. They did a lot to campaign for Republicans at the legislative level versus that of like a Chris Christie or Arnold Schwarzenegger who did nothing for Republicans. Republicans at the legislative level. Chris Christie wouldn't even let people put his name on the ballot when he was running for reelection and super popular. What kind of approach would you take to supporting the local institutional Republican Party? Because that's a really big question that a lot of. A lot of. I don't want to call them ladder pullers, but there are some. Like Larry Hogan worked really hard to get Republicans like to locally. And in the last election, Phil Scott almost won the state Senate in Vermont, something I did not ever expect. Do you have an opinion about that, how people approach that?

[Ryan Fazio]

Well, I put it this way. I've already said this, so I have no problem saying it again. If I could spend an extra hour talking to voters in. In. In a place where there is a swing state senate or state house district or. Or not, I will do it in the swing state senate or house district. It is very important, not just in Connecticut, but anywhere to elect good Republican legislators. It's the difference between people leaving your state in droves over many years, like in New York or California, or coming to your state to seek the American dream in droves, like in Florida or Texas or Tennessee. I care about that a lot, not least of which because I served in the legislature. These people are my friends. They care. They're good people. We need more of them. There Are even Democrats in the state that if you get them, I think a few beers deep in. In private, that they will say, boy, we don't need any more Democrats in this state legislature where it's already 2 to 1. We're starting to lose our minds. You know, I. This. It's very important. It's very important we elect more Republicans to the legislature to achieve more balance for everyone's benefit. So I would be the type of governor and gubernatorial candidate who would prioritize.

[Ryan Grusky]

That, you know, affordability. You mentioned it before, you know, being a New Yorker, Mandani, that's. It was. His message was that he was speaking to mostly progressives, but he was speaking on an issue that people can sit there and connect with. You know, we are several years out of a high inflationary period. We're still in a fairly weak job market situation where people looking for their first job. How do you make the case as a Republican speaking on the issue of affordability without sounding like Zoron, you know, like, how does. Like, what is the key issues that they're in state or. As a Republican, like, I want to make life easier and more affordable to you, especially people our age group, well, younger than me now because I'm like, sliding into middle age. But like, people your age group and younger who are like, I want to buy my first home, I want to get married. I want to start a family.

[Ryan Fazio]

I think for people, I think they can tell if you care. Mom, dummy believes what he's saying. What he's saying is insane, but he believes what he's saying. Like, there's. There's that sort of, like, credibility. Like, people know Trump, like, believes the things he's saying. They can also tell that, you know, someone like Andrew Cuomo or Kamala Harris, they don't believe the things they're saying. Let's start by running for office. If you actually believe what you're saying, then let's also make sure that what you're saying makes sense and it's not a bunch of crap like it is with Mondami. I think there is a heavy. I've actually done very well with young voters, and I've done better with them over time. I don't think it has to. I think. I don't think it's necessarily my age. I think that, you know, I've been saying the same things over and over that not everyone has been saying all the time. You know, I focus a lot on electric costs, utility costs, economic opportunity and growth, maybe in a slightly different way than Others do. But I've been talking about it for years, and I've been talking about it because I really believe it, like in my heart of hearts, that there's these reforms we can make to make the state genuinely affordable and genuinely create opportunity for people who don't have it otherwise. You know, my first election, the, the, the largest heist, the second largest high school in the state is Greenwich High School. It's in my district. They do every presidential election. They do a mock election, and it's over 2000 kids vote in that election. So it's actually a critical mass of people.

[Ryan Grusky]

Sample size.

[Ryan Fazio]

It is a good sample size. If you're so in my first race, I lost my first race in 2020 against an Inc. Lost it by 2%. In the. In the district, I lost the mock election at Greenwich High school by over 10%. In my last election, I was running for reelection. I won my district by 4%. I won Greenwich High School's mock election by over 10%. So that's a shocking. I was shocked, and I was more proud of that than I was actually of winning the entire district.

[Ryan Grusky]

Wow, that's. Did. How do they. How do they vote in the presidential election? Do you remember?

[Ryan Fazio]

Listen, it probably shifted toward redder, but he still lost. He still lost the presidential election.

[Ryan Grusky]

Z change?

[Ryan Fazio]

Yes, I think it's partly that Gen Z is getting redder.

[Ryan Grusky]

I talked to a pollster. This is something complete side note, but very interesting. I heard a pollster and he said, what is like the main reason you see Gen Z changing? And he said, because among Covid and all the things that everyone knows, he says something no one really thinks about is that older Gen Z still have boomer parents, younger Gen Z have Gen X parents, and Gen X is more conservative than boomers are. Just something I think is fascinating about all that. Okay, so you talk about winning your local race. How do you win in Connecticut? I mean, Connecticut has not voted for a Republican since 2006, but they keep coming up slightly short 1 point in 2010, 2 in 2014, 3 in 2018. 2022 was not great, but the governor was very popular at the time. But they come up just barely missing it. How do you actually win?

[Ryan Fazio]

In some ways it's. It's easier. In some ways, it's more challenging on the executive level. Voters are more willing to split their tickets. You know, Kansas is willing to vote for Democrats or governor. New England states. Every New England state has voted for a Republican governor in this century. And Connecticut was really close in 2010. 2014 and 2018, as you say. I think it's because voters like the first of all, they divorce their executives on the state and local level from kind of national partisan politics. It's still correlated, but they, they're more willing to make an individual decision. They're more willing to vote on practical issues and they like checks and balances. They, I do not think the voters of Connecticut want one party rule with two to one Democratic majorities where they're giving amnesty to criminal, convicted felon, illegal immigrants and they're, they are imposing the third highest electric rates in the country and people are leaving the state. I don't think they want that. I think they want something more practical and more balanced. And you know, it's a matter of time. If, if and only if we run good campaigns focused on the issues that people care about the most, like their cost of living, like public safety in a religious way. You know, over and over again you. We have to be disciplined about what our priorities are and those are the priorities. And we also have to have some debt. We have to be disciplined in our messaging. But we also have to have depth. There has to be truth to what we're saying. We have to know the issues. There has to be that credibility there. I think I can present that credibility as a candidate, as a governor. So I think it's multi pronged.

[Ryan Grusky]

Yeah. Do you think that that's because of your time in legislature and your ability to reach across the aisle or because of your consistency? What would you say is your leverage in that area then?

[Ryan Fazio]

I think it's both. I know the issues very well, both from being in the legislature, but also because I care about, care about. I care about economic policy. I care about making sure the American dream is something that is not, you know, fleeting. It's still accessible to people, especially in Connecticut. I know the issues as well because I've spent four or five years or what, four years in the legislature now. I've won really tough races. I think, you know, we, we had this thing, you know, where we just kind of parachute in a, a wealthy self funding candidate and, and you know, some of those people are really good people. I know them, they're really good people. But I think having someone who has, you know, who is the battle scars from a really tough race. You mentioned I won a really blue, a pretty blue district multiple times. I also defeated the most expensive state legislative campaign in state history last year in order to be reelected. I think those battle scars will prove useful running a statewide race and your.

[Ryan Grusky]

Level of support has gone up every time. And we'll give you that credit because, like, it's not. You are. You had a little bit more breathing room than you were. Like, 0.3% victory. I cannot imagine election night after the polls close with that. So we are five year post Covid, and that's kind of what I wanted to bring up as I talked about my monologue. We're five years post Covid. A lot of people left blue states, especially New York, not as much as Connecticut, but actually a lot of them moved to Connecticut because they got out of New York. But we are five years post Covid, and a lot of conservatives in blue states are asking themselves, do I just pack it in? Do I just go to Florida? Do I just go to Tennessee or Texas? And I mean, I ask myself questions like this all the time, too. So I'm not like, it's not just a. It's not just a hypothetical that I've never thought of. Why is it worth staying in your blue state and fighting?

[Ryan Fazio]

I think that, you know, where your home is. Maps. I think, you know, politics is not just about ideas. It's also about people and places. And this is my home. You know, it's much easier to get elected as a Republican in other places, but. But this place is my home. And I think your home is worth fighting for. The people you know intimately are worth fighting for. And, you know, we have. In modern times, politics become a lot more partisan and polarized, but place and people still matter in politics. Some politics is still local, maybe to borrow a phrase, but I think people and places still matter, and the place you're from still matters. And, you know, community still matters and makes people's lives richer. And so, you know, I think devoting yourself or dedicating yourself to, you know, positive change, even if it's less likely in the place that you call home, is. It's a very rewarding thing. You know, winning my home district, representing my home district that I grew up in, which has also gotten gone from red to blue over many years, that's a special feeling. You know, seeing people on the campaign trail or representing people or helping people with constituent service who, you know, you don't know well, but you've. You met 20 years ago when you were a kid.

[Ryan Grusky]

That.

[Ryan Fazio]

That is kind of a special thing to me. And I think it's. It's gratifying to. To anyone if it's, you know, if you do it. So that's why I think it's still important. It's not worth giving up on.

[Ryan Grusky]

And it's also, I mean, if Republicans had governorships in places like New York or even Connecticut, a lot of these redistricting fights that we're seeing now, I think on a national level, we would, they wouldn't be going on because they would have these, it wouldn't be a nuclear war that we're seeing with changing congressional lines, where can people go to read more about you, support you, donate to your candidacy? What, what do you need for from my listeners?

[Ryan Fazio]

Ryan Fazio.com is my website. You know, we're raising money, we're connecting with people. So please go there to, to learn more. We, this is a grassroots effort and we need all the help we can get.

[Ryan Grusky]

Last question, who is your Democratic opponent? I don't even, I know you have a primary opponent with former Mayor Aaron, Aaron Stewart, I think her name is. Right. Okay. And who's your Democrat? Because I don't, is the governor running for reelection?

[Ryan Fazio]

It's to be determined. We're, we're waiting to see if he runs for a third term or not. But whether it's him or another Democrat, we're running for change and I think that's going to resonate.

[Ryan Grusky]

All right. Well, Ryan, thank you for being on this podcast. I really appreciate it.

[Ryan Fazio]

Thank you, Ryan.

[Ryan Grusky]

You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Grusky. We'll be right back.

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[Ryan Grusky]

Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. This comes from Brent from Oklahoma and he writes, how do you spot an accurate pollster? I think he's specifically asking on behalf of being someone who's polled, not someone who is like looking at a poll. So he asked specifically about money, about fraudulent, fraudulent pollsters who are asking for money at the end of their poll. 1. A legitimate pollster will never tell you who they're polling for. So if you get a call from somebody who says I'm polling for the peace and Love party or I'm pulling for the, you know, Save the Dolphins foundation, that's a pollster will probably ask you for money. Pollsters who are legitimate pollsters, do not ask, ask, do not give their, their clients information out. So that's a big red flag, right? Immediately you can ask, who are you pulling for? If they say we can't tell you that information, then that's a legit pollster. You can, you may be able to figure it out on your own with certain terminology they use. If they use a, like a word like access to abortion, it's probably a right wing pollster. If these were like abortion. But if they use right to choose, it's probably a left wing pollster. You can like kind of figure out the words that they're using. That's a, that's a, a, that's a one way. Brent also asked about selling polling data. I have never seen that happen. And I'll tell you why. When you're polling a congressional district or even a state in a primary, you're pulling 500 people. Like I did a poll for a governor's race in a plain state a couple months ago. And you know, it was like 70% undecided at a 500 person poll. So it was like 350 people saying they were undecided. It, I, I, I'm not going to benefit by selling these people information. It's not, they represent the larger population, but it's not like those 350 people individually are going to change the race. A million people will vote. Maybe they will. It's super close, but no one's going to hunt those 300, 400 voters down. Like that doesn't happen. So I wouldn't worry so much about selling data and other pollsters. Actually, if it's a long poll like YouGov, YouGov sometimes pays people to take their poll. I think that that's an important thing. But overall, those are the things I would look for as far as figuring out who, who are the legitimate pollsters who are not legitimate pollsters. I would sit there and say if you, if they will tell you who they're, who they're pulling for, they are not legitimate. And if they don't tell you, they probably are legitimate. That's the first telltale sign. My next question comes from Tristan, who says, I saw on X that some districts are illegally drawn in the new California map and they're not compliant with Voting Rights Act Section 2. I just mentioned Voting Rights act at the beginning of this podcast. If the map passes in November and gets struck down by the courts, are the courts the ones who draw the new map? If so, how long could it take for that to be effective? Okay, I heard that it was VRA compliant. I think no matter what happens, a lawsuit will happen.

[Ryan Fazio]

Right?

[Ryan Grusky]

A lawsuit's going to happen no matter what. The courts in California are very Democratic. There's only a few Republicans left from the Schwarzenegger era. My best bet is that it will go to the courts no matter what happens. And then if the complaint's legitimate and they have a real argument for the vra, what they will likely do is the court will appoint somebody to redraw the maps. And who knows how that happens? Like who knows where that goes. And the last time that that happened for California was In the, in 90s or the, yeah, I think it was 1991. I mentioned this in the last podcast episode. It was 1991 and the court appointed a judge and the judge happened to be a former Republican. I don't think we'll get that lucky this time. But the court will appoint somebody, probably from the independent commission or something, and they'll give guidelines and guidance to the person drawing the map and then we really won't know what's happening. Then it will really go into crazy town. But I don't know. I heard that the VRA is compliant with the vra so I'll have to reread that. But if I if I find anything new information on it, I will talk about it on the next episode of the podcast. Well anyway, that's it for this part of Ask Me Anything. If you want to be part of Ask Me Anything, email me ryan numbers game podcast.com that's Ryan numbers game podcast.com thank you for listening again. Please join me again on Monday. I have a great episode for you. Not on redistricting, I promise. I've maxed out that story and that topic for quite some time. Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast wherever you get your podcast. Thank you and we'll see you then.

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