Not Even Close to World War 3

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show – "Not Even Close to World War 3"

Episode Details:

• Title: Not Even Close to World War 3
• Hosts: Buck Sexton and Stephen Yates
• Release Date: June 25, 2025
• Publisher: iHeartPodcasts

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Introduction

In the episode titled "Not Even Close to World War 3," Buck Sexton engages in a profound discussion with Stephen Yates of the Heritage Foundation. The conversation delves into contemporary national security concerns, particularly focusing on Middle Eastern geopolitics, Iran's role, and the implications of recent military actions. The hosts aim to dispel fears surrounding the onset of World War III by providing a nuanced analysis of current international tensions.

National Security Landscape

Buck Sexton opens the discussion by addressing the widespread anxiety regarding potential escalations that could lead to a global conflict. He emphasizes that despite looming threats, the situation is under control.

[03:00] Buck Sexton: "We need to Discuss World War 3, which is not happening, but there's a lot of national security stuff going on..."

Middle East Dynamics: Iran and Israel

The core of the conversation centers around the intricate relationship between Iran and Israel, highlighting recent military actions and their implications.

Stephen Yates provides insight into President Trump's aggressive foreign policy stance, arguing that it represents a significant shift from previous administrations.

[04:19] Stephen Yates: "President Trump is doing things at a pace and a scope and a quantity that has never been done before."

Buck Sexton echoes this sentiment, noting the positive trends in the Middle East compared to decades past. He underscores the debilitating position of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, stating:

[06:32] Buck Sexton: "Hamas and Hezbollah are in the worst position they've been. The primary proxies we're concerned about are significantly weakened."

Airstrikes and Military Operations

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to analyzing the effectiveness and precision of recent Israeli airstrikes, particularly against Iranian assets.

Buck Sexton marvels at the strategic execution of these operations, praising Israel's intelligence and military prowess.

[07:39] Buck Sexton: "They mapped out...missile strikes on nuclear scientists...this is like having the whole playbook of how they were going to take out all the guys they wanted to take out."

Stephen Yates concurs, highlighting the sophistication and discipline that enabled such targeted actions without widespread collateral damage.

[14:30] Stephen Yates: "The precision and the discipline to deliver on what they aim to do... the hole in the side of a condo building that only fried the unit the bad guy was in, that is otherworldly."

Trump's Leadership and Foreign Policy

The hosts discuss President Trump's approach to foreign policy, particularly his focus on realism and containing malign influences without seeking regime change.

Stephen Yates lauds Trump's "prosperity doctrine" and his efforts to arm and empower allies, fostering independent capabilities to manage regional threats.

[20:22] Stephen Yates: "President Trump has been doing a lot of major reset buttons... true sense of realism in foreign policy."

Buck Sexton adds that Trump's strategies aim to deter adversaries like Russia and China by demonstrating decisive action and strength.

[10:50] Buck Sexton: "It's gone much better even than I had anticipated in terms of the retaliatory response from Iran."

Intelligence Operations and Effectiveness

The discussion delves into the realm of intelligence, emphasizing the critical role it plays in national security. Both hosts agree on the supremacy of robust intelligence operations in preempting threats.

[07:39] Buck Sexton: "The pager operation against Hezbollah... one of the most incredible intelligence operations."

[14:30] Stephen Yates: "They had people that were trusted and at the side of some pretty key leaders... the precision and discipline to deliver."

Authoritarian Regimes and Stability

Exploring the resilience of authoritarian regimes, Stephen Yates expresses skepticism about their potential downfall, despite historical precedents suggesting otherwise.

[19:31] Stephen Yates: "Authoritarianism and brutal regimes have a stickiness that is very, very disappointing."

He reflects on past intelligence assessments of regimes like North Korea and draws parallels to the current situation in Iran.

[20:12] Stephen Yates: "Regimes now have tools that the people back then could only imagine... it's hard to see them overthrowed without significant external pressure."

Impact of Recent Events on Domestic Politics

The hosts touch upon how international conflicts influence domestic political landscapes, particularly the polarization around issues like ceasefires and humanitarian concerns.

Buck Sexton criticizes the premature calls for ceasefires, likening them to ineffective and counterproductive gestures in conflict situations.

[12:40] Buck Sexton: "If a guy ran into a bar, punched the first person in the face he saw, and then when the guy went to hit him back, he goes, hold on a second. Ceasefire. That's not how this works."

Stephen Yates agrees, noting that such calls often reveal underlying support for extremist elements rather than genuine peacemaking efforts.

[13:11] Buck Sexton: "The same people saying ceasefire are the same people who have been saying there's a genocide in Gaza... they're really just on team terrorists."

Historical Context and Lessons Learned

Referencing historical events like the Montgomery Bus Boycott, the hosts draw parallels to current struggles, emphasizing the pivotal role of strategic actions in shaping societal outcomes.

[25:05] Stephen Yates: "They mapped...the pivotal role that cars played in none other than the Montgomery Bus Boycott."

Future Outlook and Next Steps

As the episode nears its conclusion, Buck Sexton and Stephen Yates discuss potential future developments in Middle Eastern geopolitics and U.S. foreign policy. They express cautious optimism about the current trajectory, emphasizing the importance of continued strategic restraint and measured responses.

[23:20] Stephen Yates: "The chance of Iran having that ace up their sleeve is less than 1%... it seems like a remarkable success where we are."

[23:36] Buck Sexton: "We'll do a follow-up though... this was our Middle East deep dive. We'll do an East Asia deep dive next time."

Conclusion

"Not Even Close to World War 3" offers listeners a comprehensive analysis of current international tensions, particularly in the Middle East, while debunking fears of an impending global conflict. Through insightful dialogue, Buck Sexton and Stephen Yates provide a balanced perspective on national security, emphasizing strategic leadership and effective intelligence operations as key factors in maintaining global stability.

Notable Quotes:

• [04:19] Stephen Yates: "President Trump is doing things at a pace and a scope and a quantity that has never been done before."
• [07:39] Buck Sexton: "This is like having the whole playbook of how they were going to take out all the guys they wanted to take out."
• [12:40] Buck Sexton: "Ceasefire. That's not how this works."
• [19:31] Stephen Yates: "Authoritarianism and brutal regimes have a stickiness that is very, very disappointing."

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This episode is a must-listen for those interested in understanding the complexities of modern national security issues and the strategic maneuvers shaping today's geopolitical landscape.

Transcript

[Buck Sexton]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Stephen Yates]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Stephen Yates]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Stephen Yates]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Stephen Yates]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Stephen Yates]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Stephen Yates]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Stephen Yates]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Stephen Yates]

Well, partially to me, I think this is evidence that TDS comes in multiple forms and President Trump is doing things at a pace and a scope and a quantity that has never been done before. And I think even people on our side can fall into the trap of trying to make protracted judgments based on instant analysis. And the pace of things, the change, all of it is so fast that a lot of people are going to be wrong some of the time. And I just think people on our side aren't used to that. And it's much more of a severe syndrome on the other side. But I think the first rule of living in Trump's world is it's Going to get shaken four or five times a day. Don't panic, don't assume the first result is the end result and let him cook for a little bit before you sort of get a sense of the direction. And I think ultimately that's what it is. He is a directional leader who distracts people with things that happen along the way and they don't even realize they've moved. And so, I mean, maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but when I look at even what we're dealing with, with some of the zigs and zags on Israel and Iran right now, directionally this is in miraculously a positive direction based on what the history of this has been. And does it mean it's over? No, nothing is over until we say it's over. So. But this is, you know, when you look at the negotiations on trade, you look at the negotiations on Russia and Ukraine, these things take a lot of time. But he's not even six months in. And directionally we've done some things that are far, far better than they were in the Biden years. But that I think is what messes with people. But I've been disappointed with a lot of people that I know are friends. But you know, there's no worse disappointment than when you work for somebody that you like and then they do something you didn't agree with and you were right and they were wrong and you feel bad all the way around. Hey, that's my life.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I've got to say I think that the, I think that the trends right now in the Middle east are more positive than I can ever remember them being, certainly in my adult lifetime, right in the post 9, 11g wat era. Because even on things like when people say, OK, well what about the proxies and the terrorists, I'm like, look, first of all, we're always at risk from some, you know, if somebody wants to infiltrate a four man terror cell, unfortunately across our southern border of the last four years, you know, that's a risk. Right? That's the thing that they can do. But that will just kill a bunch of innocent people, which is horrible. But it's not going to change the military calculus at all of what's going on with the Israelis in the Middle East. Right. So that doesn't. But also on top of that, Hamas and Hezbollah are in the worst position they've been. Which are the primary proxies, I think that we're usually concerned about in the Middle East. We talk about Iran, they're in the worst position they've been in since I can remember. I mean, the pay people. Things have gone so well with the airstrikes, Steve, that the pager operation against Hezbollah, which is the most incredible intelligence operation I can think of, no one even seems to remember.

[Stephen Yates]

Completely agree. Yeah, completely agree. I know. And so I think it partially comes down to people who have lived honestly, and there are some who don't live honestly in the national security world, know that we don't ever get the luxury of zero risk. And there's always, in several different places, terrible things that could happen in an instance. And we, we work against, we hope against. It's just sort of a management process. But if you look at how, you know, some people say, well, but Iran could strike back in our homeland. Yeah, well, we always have to watch out for things like that. But, you know, the risk in that was pretty severe without Israel having done anything against Iran, without the US Having done anything against Iran. And that's courtesy of the Biden years of letting a whole host of unknown people into our country. But the best way to mitigate those things is sort of what the Israelis have done. And what I think a broader coalition of people need to do is one by one, you lessen the capability of the bad actors. You get the Chinas and the Russians to think maybe they want to back off, and maybe they're not all in for their Iranian pals. The Iranian pals aren't able to fuel those subordinates. And you have a demonstration effect by the president being decisive. It was always thought it was a little bit ridiculous for people to say, oh, Donald Trump is going to get us into World War three or some kind of protracted a commitment. I mean, having beat 2s fly over and shake the earth is profoundly different than sending ground forces anywhere. And so, if anything, this, I mean, and also I just loved, loved, loved the idea of how many people are soul hurt by not being told in advance this was happening. And I thought Scott Jennings actually had it perfectly summed up, though. The way you guard against leak is you don't talk to leakers. And so you can sort of tell where the leaks were coming from based on who the president and his top team didn't talk to.

[Buck Sexton]

You'll appreciate before, and I mean, two hours before the Israeli strikes kicked off, I was with the President and then right next to the Oval with the whole, you know, your old office, I mean, the nsc and talking to all those different folks. And it was funny because everything was very, you know, we were off the record. But I mean, we're talking about all kinds of national security stuff and everything was pretty, you know, oh, yeah, we can talk about this. I had an not on the record content but on the record meeting with Tulsi Gabbard, the DNI and all these different folks that I talked to. Just in general. The second. Remember, hours before the Israeli strike, if I even mentioned the word Iran, it was, you know, it was all of a sudden everybody kind of just like got really. They're like, oh. But you know, I even had one, I won't say who it was. I had one person who I just said, you know, what's the, what's the temperature like with Iran right now? Because I'm getting a sense that things might be, you know, there's some chatter of things heating up, whatever. And it was. Well, I can't separate the classified from the unclassified, so I can't make further comment. I remember my head.

[Stephen Yates]

That's a tell.

[Buck Sexton]

I was, I remember I had thinking, okay, so we're going in like this is happening. Yeah, no surprise there. Yeah, it's. They were, they were very, everyone was very quiet about it for sure. So it's gone much, I will say this. It's gone better even than I had anticipated in terms of the retaliatory response from Iran. The fact that Tehran were told, and I believe it told us that they were going to fire missiles at our base in this show of force thing. Clearly they can't do any military to military damage to us. Their only option is terrorism. And look, I think people need to remember also October 7th, what Hamas did in Israel was. It was the Israeli 9, 11. That was the let's just go out and kill as many civilians as possible approach to things. And I think people can look back historically, will look back historically and think that was maybe the biggest strategic miscalculation that Hamas has ever made among many. Right. I mean, among a lot of errors and blunders. But I think they just, they, they completely, they missed it. They don't understand. You do something like that and the, the first world armies of the. Of civilization, they take the gloves off.

[Stephen Yates]

Well, I agree with that. I also think it exposed more because we had had re mobs and agitators for years doing destructive things in the United States. And as long as it was domestic politics, it kind of hid who was up to what. But after October 7, the flash mobs were immediately holding up Hamas and Palestinian flags and things like that. It made very, very clear, I think to A lot of sane America, that, holy crap, this is something different. This is not organic. This is not American.

[Buck Sexton]

I mean, also, remember, there were people, they were still burying the dead in Israel. I mean, you know, women and children and the elderly burying the dead. And you had people in this country calling for a ceasefire, a ceasefire, before the Israelis had even been able to fire a shot in response to call. That is the most disingenuous. I mean, this is like if a guy ran into a bar, punched the first person in the face he saw, and then when the guy went to hit him back, he goes, hold on a second. Ceasefire. No, that's not how this works.

[Stephen Yates]

That's peace and love, brother. Come on.

[Buck Sexton]

I mean, the ceasefire talk was just. But, you know, I'm actually, in a sense, I think it was good that they did that because it showed. The same people saying ceasefire are the same people who have been saying there's a genocide in Gaza as things move along, are the same people who are saying that we're violating international norms by striking Iran. They really actually just root for the bad guys. I mean, they're really actually just on team terrorists.

[Stephen Yates]

I agree. Yeah, yeah. Very, very clarifying. The other thing was after October 7th, somewhere along the lines, there was some back and forth, of course, the Israelis have done some incredible things by way of human intelligence, embedding themselves into their enemy in ways that the entire world ought to learn.

[Buck Sexton]

Can I just jump in really quickly with this? Because you had a. You had a TS and, you know, Secret Squirrel clearance. I had a TS, Secret Squirrel clearance. You know, we saw some interesting stuff back in the day. I've never seen anything like one. What the Israelis pulled off with Hezbollah, obviously, I don't think anyone's seen that. But also, it's like they mapped out, I mean, Stephen, they. They did missile strikes on nuclear scientists at home in apartment buildings and only killed the scientists. I mean, this is. Yeah, this is like. It's like they had the whole playbook of how they were going to take out all the guys they wanted to take out.

[Stephen Yates]

Well, I think they literally did have the playbook, and they had people that were trusted and at the side of some pretty key leaders. So they ended up with the intelligence, the necessary knowledge, but then the precision and the discipline to deliver on what they aim to do. I mean, the visuals of seeing a hole in the side of a condo building that only fried the unit the bad guy was in, that is otherworldly. That is the stuff of movies that we wouldn't believe if we Read the script. And so it was really, really amazing. Plus, they had an exchange of missiles. So Iran launched some missiles in the direction of Israel like a year ago or something like that. And the Israelis were able to learn from that when they retaliated the state of Iran's air defenses. Iran had bought a lot of air defense capabilities from several different sources, Chinese, the Russians, others. And on paper it could have been scary. We had to have some uncertainty. So did the Israelis. But I think the Israelis learned a lot more than the average bear about the vulnerability that that Tehran and other places had when they saw their missile counter strikes succeed. And that led them to know they could conduct deeper operations. So they had the playbook, they had some technical tests, but then they also had the gumption to give it a go and they had their reasons for it. Now, we also have people, you talked about some people on our side that got spun up in different ways. You'll talk about the Israelis leading us in a direction or two and us doing these things for Israel. I don't know. I'm old enough to remember 444 days and I'm old enough to remember Marine barracks and other kinds of things getting blown up. There is. And I also, you know, we can be for or against the Iraq war. I certainly have a lot of questions and criticisms of how things were conducted after major military operations were done at the initial phase. Lots and lots of criticisms and questions. But no matter what, there's a lot of Iranian ordinance that killed Americans during that war. So, you know, there's any number of reasons why a decisive action would be justified just on American interests. And again, similarly to a lot of these people, I don't want a protracted war, but this was striking at distance and with stealth that I think could shiver the timbers of Russia and China.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah, remarkably successful. Let's come back and actually talk next steps here in a second. But our sponsor here is Birch Gold. And here's the good news. Trump's in charge of the economy. Things are going well. Here's the bad news. The debt is $37 trillion. Now, only way through this is going to be some degree of money printing. It's just a question of how much. And that's where inflation continues to chip away at your savings. And given the possibility, look where people are talking about World War Three, it didn't happen. But you know, things can change in an instant. Preparation with gold just makes sense. Diversifying into gold is something you should consider. And that's where Birch Gold Group comes in. They've helped tens of Thousands of people, for example, convert an existing IRA or 401k into an IRA in physical gold. Gold is a way, historically and certainly today, to hedge against inflation and serious economic instability. Learn how you can own physical gold in a tax sheltered account by texting my name Buck Buck to this number, text 989898 with Buck. Text Birchgold at 989898 B U C K. Write that in Birch Gold will send you a free no obligation info kit. Again, text my name buck to the number 9898 98. Today Birch Gold help you own physical gold or transition an existing IRA or 401k into a gold IRA or 401k. All right, so now Trump doesn't really need to hear the lectures from the chattering class over like no nation building. I think he's pretty clear on that. And I also think he's a little like, like, like the dad who's been paying all the bills who now has people chirping at him about, like, how to, you know, he's got it, you know, he's figured this out.

[Stephen Yates]

That's a good analogy.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah. Like, well, what do you think is next here for if things go the way that we would like them to? Because I, I'm always very, I wouldn't say, I don't know if cynical is the word, but I just feel like, look, Assad had suicide bombers infiltrating pretty much his inner circle in like 2012. And it looked like they were going to get him in any, you know, lasted another decade and change. Right. Under tremendous pressure and managed to just sort of slither out and last. And what is he now? He's living in Russia. Right. I'm not as convinced as some others that this is the death knell of the ayatollahs at all. But so then, if that is the case, what is the best, like, what's the best realistic option for what happens in Iran without us pushing regime change?

[Stephen Yates]

Yeah, well, I mean, I would confess over the arc of my life, I've been disillusioned about the nature of authoritarianism and brutal regimes. They have a stickiness that is very, very disappointing.

[Buck Sexton]

Very good at staying in power. That's like the main thing they want to do. Yeah, yeah.

[Stephen Yates]

And willing to do anything. And so they have escalatory dominance over anyone who wants to challenge them in many, many cases. You know, the one that seared in my mind was the absolute universe of intelligence services in the US and the entire world saying that The North Korean regime was on its Deathbed in the 90s and it was overwhelming evidence.

[Buck Sexton]

Well, there was mass starvation. Right. So you can look at this and be like, oh, there's no way that people, it's hard for starving people to overthrow a huge military apparatus.

[Stephen Yates]

Yeah. And then you think of, you know, the regimes now have tools that the people back then could only imagine. And so, yeah, I would love it if the Iran pre revolution had a, had a second go of things. That would be a beautiful thing to witness. It would be great if the history of the Persian Empire could kind of give some of those good civilizational qualities back to this war torn part of this planet. But I'm not going to hold my breath on that. And I think that what President Trump has been doing, he's hit a lot of major reset buttons. But one of the major reset buttons is a true sense of realism in foreign policy. And that really focuses less on the nature of the state and more on containing the malign influences and seeing if you can negotiate a more stable balance point for our interactions with different countries. And that's uncomfortable for a lot of people that live in the world of black and white, complete, 100% right or wrong, no gray, no middle, which is not my life, whether it's in dealing with my family that I love or dealing with friends or other experiences. The real world is not all or nothing and it's not that here either. And so I think what President Trump has now, you've got the Abraham Accords, countries that probably aren't 100% happy with the way things have played out. Israel probably pretty happy, but some of the Arab allies maybe mixed feelings, but on balance they didn't want Iran to have a nuclear program either. But you have have tools to manage risk better going forward and a lot of motivation to do it. Trump pushes prosperity and people might downplay that, but it is a useful and good tool. It doesn't work all the time perfectly. I think US China relations are the best counterexample to prosperity doctrine. Doesn't solve all your national security woes. You have to watch out. But it's a lot. So safer set of options than having a theocratic totalitarian regime with a bunch of violent terrorist proxies. So we're in a different set of tools. He's also really focused on arming and enabling independent capabilities among our allies so that they can over time take a lead with this stupid talk of closing the Straits of Hormuz that shivered the timbers of the Chinese.

[Buck Sexton]

They just want the oil to keep flowing. They're not gonna, they're not gonna say, yeah, you know what, guys? Stop selling us your oil. That's not gonna help.

[Stephen Yates]

So here's a big country that wants to be your friend and European and their Cheerios. Come on, you can't do this.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah, that sounds even better in the original Chinese. You know, that's.

[Stephen Yates]

The classical Chinese, modern Chinese.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah, exactly.

[Stephen Yates]

It's more poetic in the old language.

[Buck Sexton]

I mean, look, I mean, maybe we have to do a follow up to this, Steve. When we say, oh, you know, who knew that Iran had that ace up their sleeve? I think the chance of that is like less than 1%. So so far, to me, it seems like a remarkable success where we are. We will do a follow up though. We'll do an. This was our Middle East Yates deep dive. We'll do a, a East, a East Asia deep dive next time we talk. Stephen Yates over at the Heritage Foundation. Steven, always appreciate you, man. Thank you so much.

[Stephen Yates]

Take good care. Thank you, Buck.

[Buck Sexton]

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[Stephen Yates]

Thanks to Hyundai, we got to take.

[Buck Sexton]

A post show drive in the Ionic five.

[Stephen Yates]

We had snacks, laughs, and we even.

[Buck Sexton]

Recorded a special episode featuring some unforgettable car themed stories.

[Stephen Yates]

Take a listen.

[Buck Sexton]

I'm gonna tell you a story today, Karen. It's about a pivotal role that cars.

[Stephen Yates]

Played in none other than the Montgomery bus boycott.

[Buck Sexton]

Okay, well, yes, it's right there in the title, right this episode is brought to you by the 2025 Hyundai Ioniq.

[Stephen Yates]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Stephen Yates]

Wow. Thanks, dad.

[Buck Sexton]

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