Buck Sexton (2:31)

Good Ranchers making the American farm strong again.

Clay Travis (2:37)

Team 47 with clay and Buck starts now. This is one of those days where it pays off to be me. Where you start off your morning with a nice Crockett coffee. Sitting down in front of the newspaper selection, opening it up. Usually the New York Times, not exactly renowned for its positive stories relating to the Republican Party.

Buck Sexton (3:00)

Can I just say, drinking Crockett clay is like putting on the leather bib before you get the X ray at the dentist. Like, if you're drinking Crockett, the communist New York Times doesn't infiltrate you the same way.

Clay Travis (3:13)

No doubt. And by the way, I just want. I do it so you don't have to. This is me taking the.

Buck Sexton (3:19)

I meant lead, not leather. Sorry, Leather. Lead bib. Lead bib.

Clay Travis (3:23)

I was thinking, what does the leather do? But I was the leather. With the Davy Crockett connection. I thought I might be missing something. I. I do it so most of you do not have to. But this is a headline in the New York Times today. And I'm looking at what the headline is in the digital right now. Because sometimes it's different than the newspaper headline. Digital, not a positive headline. Democrats flashing red alert. What? The voter registration data shows subheading. And there's a big graphical accompaniment story for this. The party is bleeding support beyond the ballot box. A new analysis shows. This is a big article. This is the feature for the New York Times. And listen to this. Open. Buck, you don't hear opens like these. And I thought it was interesting because the Sunday New York Times basically wrote an entire editorial on behalf of the paper saying, yeah, Clay and Buck were basically right about everything on Covid and basically right about everything on crime. And. And maybe we should have been smarter about the way we covered it. That's basically what the New York Times said in their editorial. Here's the open. The Democrat Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls. Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections, often by a lot. That four year swing towards Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters. A deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. And then, Buck, there is a graphic showing you Democrats losing ground in all 30 states while Republicans are gaining crown ground. And again, one more paragraph here, just to contextualize so you know what Democrats are reading this morning. The stampede away from the Democrat party is occurring in battleground states. The bluest states and the reddest states, too, according to voter registration data analyzed by the New York Times. And the data comes from a nonpartisan data factory. So this is interesting when you think about Buck, what is going on in the larger country. I feel like I've seen it for a while because the Democrat Party, it's basically an insult to call someone a Democrat if you're a young man. We made jokes about this when I fraternities. Instead of making jokes about your mom with the banners outside of the house this fall or saying their opponents vote Democrat, the culture has shifted in a major way.

Buck Sexton (6:22)

Yes. Now if you're at the frat house and some guy swings and misses, you say you swing that wiffle ball bat like a Democrat. It's not good. It's not good.

Clay Travis (6:31)

Yeah.

Buck Sexton (6:32)

And this whole article, though, look, the data in this, I'm going to tell you this right now, this article is a joy. It is a joy to read. I read it more than once. That's how much. And this is a New York Times, a big piece from the New York Times. This is injected straight into my veins. Take this data and put it right into the heart of the American populace. This is great stuff. Some of the things I pulled from this in the specifics, the long and the short of it, as you laid out, is party registration, which Democrats are used to having an advantage. And one of the reasons why they didn't really detail this in the article is Democrats have been running the this voter registration industrial complex that is a non they use nonprofits. So tax advantaged here. Ok. They're using nonprofits in order to get people to sign up and vote, but they do it in a way that they know they're going to get more Democrats. Right. So it's oh, we're just to get out the vote effort. Right. And you've seen celebrities doing this in the past and stuff, but it's always wink, wink. We're going to do this in, you know, in Philadelphia, in New York, in Los Angeles. Like they're doing it in places where they figure we're going to overwhelmingly be registering Democrats to vote. Well, the problem is now they can't count clay on just a blanket registration effort in these areas. Especially when they're going after, let's say, Latino voters, they can't count on it benefiting Democrats. So they're going, hold on a second. Our scam isn't working the way that it used to. Miami Dade county, for example, the number of active Republican voters zoomed past Democrats after Trump Became the Republican nominee. As recently as November 2020, my home county of Miami Dade, Clay, Democrats had a 200,000 in one county. 200,000 registered voter advantage. Yeah, there are, you know, most counties don't even have, you know, 200,000 voters. I mean, you see this. North Carolina state records show the Democrat advantage there was 400,000 in 2020. It's now basically, you know, more or less a tie. They've got 17,000 voters. I mean, that's like not, not going to make a huge difference. So this is five alarm fire. Time for. Is that the most alarms for a fire? I think it is, right? This is a four alarm fire. Five alarm fire. We got a lot of firefighters. You guys can write it in and tell us.

Clay Travis (9:03)

I think it's five alarm, right?

Buck Sexton (9:04)

I think it's five alarm, right.

Clay Travis (9:05)

I think you're right.

Buck Sexton (9:06)

I think it's a big scary fire. Yeah, this is a big scary fire for Democrats. For us, we are roasting marshmallows and enjoying all of this. This is fantastic. And it goes to everything we talk about, as you said, the anti masculine, anti white misjudging, the Latino misjudging, the young black male vote. I mean they, they are in freefall. And the great thing is, Clay, there's no signs of it stopping. It just keeps getting worse. And they won't change their messaging. They keep pushing for, let's have, you know, 200 pound guys playing on the women's athletics team in high school.

Clay Travis (9:41)

Yeah. And I do think this is so, by the way, one bit of news on this. 30 states, you might be saying, okay, what happened in the other 20 states? The other 20 states don't have party official registration. So in my state of Tennessee, for instance, you walk in on a primary and pick which side you want to vote in. So there isn't official party registration. Some places have registered Democrats, some places have registered Republicans. 20 states do not. So they only have a 30 state data set. But this to me, buck, it corresponds with all 50 states moved redder. If all 30 states are hemorrhaging Democrats such that the New York Times is writing about it and adding Republicans, it is a sign of a profound cultural shift. And I think the numbers are actually going to get worse. And this is why we had this conversation. In the wake of losing in 2024, Democrats had a real choice. Do we look ourselves in the mirror and say boy voters by and large rejected us, or do they say this is just a sign that our message is not getting through? Those are the only two Paths, right. The first one is hard because it requires you to say, boy, this is on us. The second one, you put it on the voters. I think we've gotten a result so far. Six months after Trump won, Democrats have decided their message just didn't get through. And they have as a result, doubled, tripled, quadrupled, down on crazy. And they're saying, well, they're ignoring the fact that Kamala outspent Trump. They're ignoring the fact that voters I believe, heard, listened, analyzed and rejected the arguments being made by the Democrat Party and overwhelmingly chose the Republican Party instead. And here's what I think is particularly ominous, Buck. I think there are two things that are particularly ominous about this data. One, the two most Republican groups in the 2024 election were men under 30, women and men over 65. I bet that has never happened in the history of this country. And I think a lot of people are still not recognizing it, which means that the data as kids are getting younger instead of working in Democrat favor is actually working against them. And I'll come into the Travis household and give you an example on this. My 14 year old blew my mind because I, I can't believe that I'm going to have two grown adult sons by the next election. He told me right after 2024, dad, all my friends cannot wait to be 18 so we can vote against Democrats in 2028. These are 14 year old boys that will be 18. This is right now rising ninth graders. And there's a lot of these kids, they are overwhelmingly indexing Republican just like their older brothers did. Just like is happening out there. So I think the numbers are getting worse. That's point one for younger two and this is really transformative and I know a lot of you out there are part of this group. Asian, Hispanic and black voters are increasingly moving towards the Republican side because culturally they are more male than they are Democrat and that men are men are saying we're done with the craziness. So I think both of those things are huge, not only now, but looking.

Buck Sexton (13:28)

Forward and just from a pure power perspective, the general belief is that after a presidential election, especially a tightly contested, hotly contested one, oh Republicans, or rather the party in power, Republicans in this case will get smackdown in the midterms and just also the overall political trend because when you're in power it's easy for people to say you're not doing a good enough job of this and you messed that up. And you know, to be the political complainers tends to work right? That the opposition party gets to say you're not delivering, you're not. And we've gotten used to that as our, as our framework for politics in this country, certainly at the national level. Here's the and let me add that happened in 2016, 2017, going into that 2018 midterms. It was Trump hasn't delivered. They hadn't built the wall, they hadn't done this and that. And they were able to get substantial gains in 2018 in the house. And the Democrats were really fired up obviously about 2020. You could tell already by that midterm clay, that's not happening this time. And this is what I think is so concerning to the Democrats and so amazing for the rest of us is that they're not seeing the general, the general prevailing trends post this election are not ok. Democrats are going to snap back. Democrats are going to counterattack here. It's getting worse for them.

Clay Travis (14:54)

Yes.

Buck Sexton (14:55)

Trump's been president for seven months and things are getting better for Trump and worse for Democrats right away in all the numbers and all the metrics that they can see. I mean, here's one we didn't mention this battleground states, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania. Democrats are losing support in all of those states and continuing to bleed support based on voter regis. Remember, not all states have voter registration. What is it? It's like, what is it, 30, 30.

Clay Travis (15:25)

Out of 30 out of 50. So I'm not, I'm not a registered anything in my state.

Buck Sexton (15:29)

So, so 20 do not $30 based on those 30 states though you can look at Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, really important states. Democrats are still losing support when it comes to voter registration in those places and they're also losing support. When you look at voter switches, people that were Democrats and come to Republican side or Republicans who go in the other direction, more Democrats are leaving the Democrat Party. I don't know how this article could be worse for Democrats right now. There was not a single silver lining and anywhere, anywhere, full stop. It was a total, oh, it was a delicious nightmare for them.

Clay Travis (16:05)

I loved every by the way, one state that I think is not getting enough attention that is emblematic of this maybe more than most. Nevada. In Nevada, Democrats suffered the steepest percentage point plunge of any state other than West Virginia. West Virginia is pretty red place. Nevada swung massively to the Republican Party. I think there's an argument that Nevada is red really teed up to become rock ribbed red.

Buck Sexton (16:32)

Well, I, I have a theory on West Virginia, actually. Let me come back into that. I have a theory. I think that West Virginia data is much more important even than the article suggests.

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Clay Travis (18:40)

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Clay Travis (20:41)

Team 47 with Clay and Buck. The New York Times is saying, hey, this is, this is a mess for you guys. And one of the, I would say big issues associated with this going forward I wanted to come back to it is Democrats are unwilling to recognize that their message was heard and basically universally rejected by voters in all 50 states. So my question for you, Buck, is now that, let me say this, that doesn't mean that Democrats may not win in Virginia, doesn't mean that Democrats may not win in New Jersey. Doesn't even mean next year Democrats might not have a chance to take back the House. Right? The trend lines can all be moving against them and turnout can still be significant. But I wanted to hit this because I think it's so important. For a long time you heard, oh, turnout favors Democrats, turnout favors Democrats. How many times have you guys heard that the Data on the 2024 election actually shows if every eligible American had voted, Trump would have won by more. Let me repeat that because I think it has not come through. Trump's margin in the popular vote would have become more substantial if everybody who didn't vote actually had gone out and voted well.

Buck Sexton (22:17)

And the talking point about if, if everyone voted, Democrats would win by more. This was a little bit like their selective love of the popular vote, particularly in the Bush Gore contest and then Hillary Trump, which is, we know that's not the contest you're running, so it doesn't matter, right? I mean, if, if, if, if you're playing first one to 21, you can't say, well, the 10 minute, the 10 minute quarter has ended, so I win. Like, you've got to set the rules and then you've got to see where things go. But they say this and they've been telling themselves this for a long time. And, and I think because of the dominance that they had in the broad spectrum, legacy media, they were able to convince themselves of this. And, and, and really with COVID you got to see, this is why I think Covid is, is, was such an important moment for the country. I mean, I still think about it, I'm still angry about it, by the way. Legitimately, I get, I get ticked off when I think about things that happened during COVID that Democrats did to us. And then a lot of Republicans were too cowardly to stop, I might add. But that was the Democrat Party unleashed unrestrained. That was what they really are, which is, you shut up, we're going to lie to you, we're going to kick you off the Internet, we're going to use government force to lock you in your homes, we're going to use government force to shut down your people. We're going to do all these things and we're going to be unrepentant about it when it all has shown that it was wrong, unnecessary and, and just destructive. And then we're going to keep telling you, well, you know, you still have to say that a man can become a woman. Then we're going to keep telling you, you still have to say that unrestricted open borders aren't a bad thing for the country or for any country for that matter. They decided that they were going to go for it and put themselves in a position where they could dictate what reality was and they were wrong. And now they're seeing the pushback, the counterattack, and everything that needs to happen is happening.

Clay Travis (24:21)

I think two things tie in with this to one. I think Trump has become a much more sophisticated politician. I think that his group that surrounds him, his, his aides, his cabinet, I think they are smarter. I think they are more reflective of the country and where the country stands. And I think Trump has taken advantage of the reflective, reflexive, anti Trump sentiment to actually just start taking positions that are 80 or 90% popular to see whether Democrats D.C. crime is a good example. Men and women's sports are actually willing to continue to argue against him. And so far they have been. Here is the question that I have for you, Buck, and I also have this question for everybody writ large out there. If you are unwilling to acknowledge that everybody's hearing your message and rejecting it, which is what is happening so far with the Democrat Party, is there a truth teller on that side of the ledger that is going to emerge to redefine what the Democrat Party is? Or do they have to lose again in order to recognize that their message is being heard and rejected? Because I'll give you an example, Buck, some people are going to say we're just not being left wing enough. That could be the lesson to some of these people from Mamdani. Right, it is, hey, basically, let's just become communist. That's what has to motivate the base.

Buck Sexton (25:54)

The real Democrat Party has never been tried.

Clay Travis (25:57)

Yes, basically right. Or, or is someone going to emerge who is somewhat of a centrist. Now, Gavin Newsom has tried.

Buck Sexton (26:08)

Look at you. Look at you. This is the. Go ahead. Go ahead.

Clay Travis (26:10)

Gavin Newsom has tried to flirt with centrism by saying, never the right thing, but that he hears the right argument. Remember when he was on with Sean Ryan, he said, what's your voice? I hear you.

Buck Sexton (26:24)

It's like, yeah, it's like I'm hearing, I'm hearing what you're saying. I'm getting what you're putting down. And the wind through my hair is speaking to all of us.

Clay Travis (26:31)

I'm hearing. What you're saying is an amazing line because you don't actually say anything like, of course you're. Unless you're, Unless you're deaf. Of course you hear what I say. It doesn't mean that you actually agree with it. So that's his line. And you know who's actually making fun now of Gavin Newsom? This is a guy who I think has seen the tea leaves and he will blow in whatever direction the wind is blowing. Joe Scarborough, who just last year was telling us this was the best version of Biden he'd ever seen, now says Gavin Newsom's a total fake. Listen to this. The Democrats are trying to find their footing and it's quite embarrassing, actually. I mean, Gavin Newsom, I mean, have you seen what he's doing online? And say, just take a deep breath. Don't try to turn the ship 180 degrees. And, and 1. They don't know what to do. I have a good idea. Instead of trying to make school Donald Trump talking to the camera about affordability, why try to drag Muhammad Ali in the ring when you got Chuck Wepner standing right in front of you?

Buck Sexton (27:40)

Wepner's a bleeder.

Clay Travis (27:41)

He's a bleeder. You want him. So why are you going. I'm going after Arnold.

Buck Sexton (27:46)

No, you're not. You're not.

Clay Travis (27:48)

Not running against Donald Trump. Go after Tweedledee or Tweedledum.

Buck Sexton (27:55)

Who is.

Clay Travis (27:55)

This is a low level boxer. But what, what? I think it's a very low level boxer from like somebody look it up. But the Muhammad Ali as Trump is funny because suddenly Trump is a great politician and he's a great boxer. In the analogies from. He's.

Buck Sexton (28:14)

Well, he has kicked it.

Clay Travis (28:15)

He's kicked tactician out there.

Buck Sexton (28:17)

He's kicked their asses. I mean, they've had, they've had to accept. Trump has kicked their asses. Trump has completely plowed the Democrat Party under clay. We didn't even talk about it because of all the big news with Russia and all the things going on there. MSNBC has had to change its name. This is real, everybody. This is not the Onion. MSNBC is now going to be called msnow, which honestly sounds like a channel dedicated to, you know, unmarried middle aged women who drink a lot of wine and read those novels that are, you know, by the front register or something at the grocery store. Like Ms. Now, I mean, is this about, like, women's health? Like, what are we talking about? Clay? He has destroyed cnn. He has destroyed msnbc. The New York Times will never gain back, nor the Washington Post whatever credibility that they used to have. He has crushed the fake media. He has burned their villages and heard the lamentations of their women. So, yes, they have to accept this. But I have a wild idea for you. I have a wild idea for you. You ready for this one?

Clay Travis (29:23)

Yeah.

Buck Sexton (29:23)

I'm putting on, I'm putting on my Clay Travis hat right now. Hey, look at me. I love SEC football and I make wild predictions that sometimes come true. I'm putting on my clay hat. Joe Scarborough's media career is going nowhere. Joe Scarborough should run for president as a Democrat and I think he Sees Gavin Newsom and I think he's a little jelly. And I think he's considering it. I think he's considering it.

Clay Travis (29:47)

I don't think that, that this is. I, this is a good.

Buck Sexton (29:50)

I put on my clay.

Clay Travis (29:51)

I think this is a good. I think this is a good take. I actually, I mean, Joe Scarborough used to be a Republican. He now is redefining himself. He called out Democrats for being against more police in dc. He's got the Ms. Now, the MSNBC base that likes him right there on the most popular show other than Maddow. He's obviously in the communication business. We know that he has no core belief, but that actually might benefit him if all the core beliefs of the Democrat Party are wrong, it's easier for someone without core beliefs to take over the party.

Buck Sexton (30:29)

He's perfect, actually. And this is, this is why Joe Biden was perfect for Democrats in 2020, because he was old, people were scared. He didn't have to show up for anything. And he was able to be the. He was the pretext of the old Democrat Party still exists. Now we know what happened. He was a dementia puppet. And you got AOC policies with a Joe Biden facade, right? And it was truly a facade because it was like, you know, the marionette, like, hey, here I am, everybody, I'm talking. And so that was what worked for them then. What would work for them now is a slick, grinning Gavin Newsom or Joe Scarborough type, soulless but smooth individual who can, who is good on the stump, who knows how to debate, who knows how to do the, the, the oleaginous thing up there, word of the day. And I think, I think Scarborough and actually Gavin. I think Scarborough and Newsom are the same creature. That's what I release. And I think Gavin Newsom and Joe Scarborough are such egomaniacs that they have what it takes to say absolutely anything to win a Democrat primary. That's what I, that's what, that's where I see it. And, you know, this would be an opportunity. I'm telling you. He would, it would, he would be. Do very well in a primary. Remember msnbc, there's a. They have a strong minority and a strong female black viewership for. From within the, you know, the news cohorts, the news industry. And so they, they know him, they would like him, they would support him. I mean, I think, I think Scarborough running is not as. Not a. People always say on the right that Tucker was going to run much. I don't think that's going to happen. I Think Tucker likes what he's doing now. But I, the Scarborough thing, you don't think it's crazy?

Clay Travis (32:19)

No, I don't.

Buck Sexton (32:19)

I put my clay hat on. And you agree?

Clay Travis (32:22)

Well, I have been arguing for some time that it might take somebody outside of the Democrat Party. And I think in the wake of Trump's success, there will be, I think, multiple non traditional politicians who run on the Democratic Party.

Buck Sexton (32:38)

You need star power to win a Democrat primary. Now, it used, you can't replicate the brand creation of, of other Democrats that have, you know, Biden, the guy's been in politics longer than you and I have been alive.

Clay Travis (32:54)

Yeah.

Buck Sexton (32:54)

And so that name recognition is effectively similar to the, you know, the celebrity status. Right. You're not going to get somebody who comes up now who doesn't have star power and wins a Democrat primary. This is again why I think AOC is certainly a vice president in waiting. And I think that that's where the Democrats are heading.

Clay Travis (33:15)

Well, the reason I like the Scarborough Angle. Right. The outsider is this is my, this is my assertion. In order to win, a Democrat has to put the left wing in basically timeout. They have to lecture the left wing and say this party is not, this party doesn't exist just for trans people. This party doesn't exist just for people who believe that America is fundamentally awful and that American history is something to be ashamed of.

Buck Sexton (33:49)

I think Joe Scarborough or Gavin Newsom, I mean, this is, they're, they're the same. They're the same lane for the Democrats. Right. A guy with, who's smooth on the air, he's got good hair and is going to say whatever he has to say to make everybody play ball long enough that he can actually get power. And I think that the case from the Newsom Scarborough side of things is I don't care what you blue haired, you know, communist freaks.

Clay Travis (34:15)

Yes, actually.

Buck Sexton (34:16)

And again, we mean purple hair, not old people. Like people that dye their hair blue. I don't care what you communist freaks want. If you don't let me run this show a little bit, Trump and MAGA are just going to keep stealing your lunch for the next decade.

Clay Travis (34:30)

Yeah, I think that's right. I also think some of the Democrats are too much of cowards to try to put what is a great phrase from, from Dirty Dancing. Nobody puts baby the corner. You got to put crazy in the corner. And you got to say like, I'm shutting the door on you loons. You can show up and vote, whatever. You're not going to drive the party anymore. I think a lot of professional politicians are afraid of that because they're afraid of that party element coming back, the progressive wing in power. Whereas Joe Scarborough, what the heck does he care? He's got a television contract. He's got money. I don't know that Gavin Newsom is willing to truly burn the ships because if it doesn't work in 28, he might need those people in 32.

Buck Sexton (35:11)

I just one last thing. I know we got to get to a break, but just Clay, you know this, you know this beast, you know this animal very well. The, the, the media personality who, we've all seen this playing out over decades. When you're at that stage at Scarborough, the guy's worth millions and millions of tens of millions of dollars probably at this point.

Clay Travis (35:28)

He's a very wealthy guy.

Buck Sexton (35:29)

Okay. He's been doing TV a long time. His relevance is dropping immensely by being at msnbc. How do you become relevant again? Money doesn't really matter to you at that point very much. How do you become relevant again? You run.

Clay Travis (35:42)

And also you've been embarrassed because you were the guy who said Biden was at his best. You need to change the story and you have to do something radical sometimes that's 100% true.

Buck Sexton (35:53)

Because, because, because all you care, it's all ego driven and to change the story. I mean, look at, look, dude, look at Trump. Obama made fun of Trump at a dinner and the world changed.

Clay Travis (36:02)

Yes. So, you know, I think that's right. I, I, I, I don't, I, I think the Scarborough idea is actually a good one. I think there will be other people. Dwayne the ro, Mark Cuban. I'm not signing on to any of these guys, but I think a lot of people will believe that they can be the Democrat version of Trump.

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Iheart presents the Big three playoffs this Sunday. The remaining four teams battle to make the championship in the most physical, fierce and competitive basketball league in the world. The action starts with the Big three Monster Energy celebrity games. Then Dwight Howard and his Ellie Riot take on Montrez Harrell and Dr. J Chicago triplets. The finale will see popular Miami 3045 with stars MVP Michael Beasley and Lance Stevenson take on Nancy Lieberman's Dallas power who will make it to the Big Three championship. The no holds barred action starts Sunday at 3pm Eastern, 12 Pacific only on.

Announcer (36:47)

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Clay Travis (37:49)

You want smart political talk without the meltdowns? We got you and I'm Carol Markowitz. And I'm Mary Kathryn Hammond. We've been around the block in media and we're doing things differently.

Buck Sexton (37:59)

Normally is about real conversations, thoughtful, try to be funny, grounded and no panic.

Clay Travis (38:05)

We'll keep you informed and entertained without ruining your day. Join us every Tuesday and Thursday Normally on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

Buck Sexton (38:19)

This is an iHeart podcast.