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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Karol Markowicz Show: Tom Bevan on Polling, Media Bias, Trump’s Political Future & the Collapse of Legacy Media
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iHeart Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
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Tom Bevan
This coffee shop running smooth thanks to genius from global Payments. Instant transactions, effortless inventory and synchronized operations. Big league reliability for any business. That's genius. Amazon Health AI presents Painful thoughts.
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I. I can't stop scratching my downtown. Mm, yeah, but I'm not itching to go downtown and tell a reception. I'm here to talk about my downtown. Some things you'd rather type than say out loud.
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Tom Bevan
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Carol Markowitz
Hi and welcome back to the Carol Markowitz show on iheart. Our guest today is Tom Bevan. Tom is the co founder and President of RealClearPolitics. Hi Tom. So nice to have you on Carol.
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Tom Bevan
It is so great to be with you.
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Carol Markowitz
Tom. I am a huge fan of RealClear.
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Tom Bevan
Oh, thank you.
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Carol Markowitz
I want to know how you got there, what made you start it, tell us everything.
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Tom Bevan
Well, so I'll give you the short version since we only have 20 minutes.
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Carol Markowitz
22. 22. You know.
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Tom Bevan
Okay. So the interesting thing about Roe Clear Politics is that the co founder, John McIntyre and myself, we were not involved in politics or journalism professionally. He was a trader and I was in advertising. But we were just political junkies. We just loved the stuff. And we would watch the Sunday shows and we would listen to talk radio and read the op ed pages and talk about them. And so in the late 90s, mid to late 90s, was really the first time where you could read what was being written in the New York Times and the LA Times on the same day. That was kind of our aha moment where like, okay, why don't we create a place for people like us who are junkies about this stuff and just bring all of this information, become sort of a political clearinghouse. And that's how we started what we call the sort of intelligent aggregation model, which back in the day, like the first iterations of Rickler Politics, we were posting like five stories. I mean it was really, you're like, this is, this is like inventing the wheel. Yeah. And this is before like the blogosphere, I mean, all of this stuff. And then we created the Real Clear Politics poll average. That was the other thing that really put us on the map. And that's what turned us into, took it from basically being like a hobby into a business because we were both still working at our day jobs and then we were moonlighting at night and in the morning trying to keep the site updated and we were really, you know, just on a shoestring. And then in the leading up to the 04 election, so a couple things happened. Number one, there was a 2000 election, which the 45 day aftermath of that, people were just dying for information about the vote counts and all that stuff. And we were, we were aggregating all this stuff from all these papers across Florida. We were aggregating transcripts of court proceedings and all these things. And so that was a huge boost to traffic. September 2001, the attack on the World Trade center, that was another moment in time where people were just desperate to find out, learn more about what had happened and why it had happened. And who are these, who are these people who wanted to kill us?
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Carol Markowitz
Yeah.
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Tom Bevan
And so, and then the 04 election, when we had the poll averages and we started getting on TV and talking about them and the idea for the poll average, you know, there are plenty of people who average polls now, but we were the ones who invented it and created it. And the idea was really, you know, as I mentioned, John was a trader. And it was kind of like, you know, look, individual stocks go up and down during the day, but at the end of the day, people always want to know, what did the Dow do? Where did the Dow go? The same thing. You'd get a poll that would show, you know, Hillary Clinton, I'm making up numbers. Hillary Clinton leading by two and Donald Trump leading by four. Well, which one's right? Well, the truth is somewhere in between. And if you take those polls and you average them, you aggregate that data, the, the theory was and is that you will get a better, more accurate reading of where a race is at any moment in time and also how that race is trending over time. And so that was the, you know, that was the idea for the RCP average and obviously that took off and, and that made us into a little company that we've been now, last year was our 25th year of operation. So I know, I know I've been doing this for a long time now, which is crazy.
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Carol Markowitz
So are you surprised when people get angry at the poll averages that they're like angry at RCP because the poll averages didn't tell them what they thought they should be telling them?
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Tom Bevan
I get the skepticism of polls. There have been some misses. I mean, you have to be honest about this stuff. The national polls have actually been pretty good. But in some states, and you look at a place like Wisconsin and 2016 and some others, I mean, one of the biggest misses was in New Hampshire in 2000, in the primary, in the 2008 race when Barack Obama won Iowa and went in there with a big lead and all the polls had him leading. And if you remember, you know, Hillary went and did this, she did a town hall and someone held up a sign that said, like iron my shirt. And she got all choked up. And you know, women came out and like voted for. And so, so we've had moments like that in time where the polls have been, you know, it was exacerbated by Donald Trump because he caused a change in the electorate. The pollsters just simply weren't, couldn't capture, couldn't capture. And it was mostly sort of less non college educated white voters and rural voters in places like Wisconsin and some of these other battleground states who had voted for Obama once or maybe twice and just decided, you know, that's it. Or the people who quite frankly hadn't voted before and were motivated by Trump to come back into the process. So I get it. But at the same time, polls aren't going away. They are the best measure or metric that we have, as flawed as they have been in some circumstances. And so, you know, I always tell people, listen, you have to. That's one of the reasons that, you know, you look at an average, which, which takes into account, you know, the polls that you may think are, are completely, you know, liberal and, and misreading the electorate versus the polls that, you know, some folks will say, well, they're right leaning polls. Well, the right leaning polls were more accurate than the other polls in 2016, 2020 and 24, but they weren't as accurate in 2018 and 2020 too. In those midterm years where those Trump voters didn't turn out as much. So look, it all comes out in the wash, but I get it.
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Carol Markowitz
Yeah. It's funny that you say like these liberal polls, you don't believe them. The way I remember conservatives is like you totally believe the liberal polls. Like you thought you were gonna lose everything all the time. And that how you went into the elections and won because you, you believe the liberal polls and you, you tried even harder. I mean that, that was how I came up anyway.
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Tom Bevan
Well, there, there absolutely has been this sort of bifurcation of the polling sort of class right. Where you have, there, there, there are now a number of Republican pollsters, Republican leaning pollsters, Trafalgar and Rasmussen, insider advantage and the like that are, and the narrative, you know, which, which came out of the 28, 2022 and then again in 2024 was that these were all Republican leaning polls and they're polluting all the averages. And this manipulation, manipulation of the, of the poll averages. And we were attacked by the New York Times five days before the election.
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Carol Markowitz
This is 04, this is 24 oh 24.
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Tom Bevan
And basically saying like, oh, Rookler politics is painting this picture of the electorate that is complete fantasy that Donald Trump is gonna win all seven swing states. I was like, well that's actually reality because that's what happened. So it's been an interesting time. The other complaint that we hear all the time, and I get this, but at the same people say, oh, I'm 75 years old, I've never been pulled once.
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iHeart Podcast Announcer
Right?
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Carol Markowitz
I've never been pulled once.
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Tom Bevan
I have. But I mean, I get it when people say like they're just making up numbers. There have been instances of people who are just kind of grifters and they show up out of nowhere and start polling some of these battleground states. And, and they, in some cases they are making up numbers and they, we've had examples of that in the past. But that's one of the reasons that, you know, we don't include any campaign polls in our averages. We don't include any pack polls. And if we do put something in our average, we usually, you know, vet them pretty carefully and talk to the pollsters and try and figure out, okay, what are you doing and how are you doing it? What's your track record? What else have you done? Because it is, you know, we don't want people trying to manipulate the average.
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Carol Markowitz
I, it just, it's such a mystery to me why anybody would try to skew the polls. I Feel like it only would depress your own base. Like, they would be like, oh, we're winning by so much. I can go, like, hang out with my friends instead of this. Why? Why would you do that? It makes no sense.
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Tom Bevan
I. I mean, yeah, look, and for most of these folks, you know, it's a business, and for us, it's a bit like we want to be as accurate.
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Carol Markowitz
Right.
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Tom Bevan
If we're not accurate, people aren't going to take us seriously. And so. And the other thing about, you know, our competitors is, you know, people, Nate Silver and some of these other folks have tried to sort of build a better mousetrap by, you know, creating a black box where they're weighting polls based on, you know, who the pollster is and, you know, how big their sample is and all of these different things adding little secret sauce and putting their thumbs on the. We just do a simple average. I mean, the numbers are right there. It's like literally as, as basic as. And transparent as you can get. And, you know, if you put our track record up against anybody, you know, we've been as accurate or more accurate than anybody else out there over the last 25 years.
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Carol Markowitz
So what would you be doing if you weren't at rcp?
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Tom Bevan
That's a great question. I've often thought about that. You know, I. I did have a life prior to this. I was in advertising. I graduated with a. A degree in American History from Princeton University, which, wow. One said, what are you going to do? You're going to be a teacher? I'm like, advertising? No, but I was in, you know, I was involved in advertising and marketing for a while. I don't know that I'd want to go back to that world. I've often, I've talked to my wife. I'm like, what, you know, what would I do if I was not doing this? And at this point, I just turned 57, and I've been doing this for 25 years. And I said to my wife, I'm like, I'm really not qualified to do anything. If I went out and tried to get a job doing anything else, people are going to be like, you know what I did, what I have done, though, over the past, my kids are grown. Grown. I still have a freshman in high school, a sophomore in high school, and a senior in high school. And then I've got two older ones, so I've got five kids. And what I have done over the past, you know, 25 years is coach them in their athletics. And most recently, I played Football in college. And most recently I was coaching my son's tackle football team, the Catholic League here in the North Shore of Chicago and love it, so much fun. So I, I, I think it would have been a, like a high school football coach.
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Carol Markowitz
And that's actually really cool.
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Tom Bevan
Happy as a clam.
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Carol Markowitz
Yeah, I love that. I feel like I, I have to look it up. But somebody else recently told me their plan B might have been a high school coach.
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Tom Bevan
Absolutely. It's the best. I mean, it really is.
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Carol Markowitz
It's funny because I, when I see the dads that are coaching on a Saturday or Sunday morning, I'm like, those are such heroes. Like, I, you could not pay me enough to deal with other people's kids and coaches. I, I, I hear you. And I just want you to know from the car where I'm waiting for my football playing son to come back, I respect the hell out of all of you, but just, I could never,
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Tom Bevan
Yeah, I mean, first of all, we,
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Carol Markowitz
cause sometimes the kids are jerks. Like my middle son, he had, like, he had a team where the coach quit in the middle. The kids were so bad.
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Tom Bevan
You know, a, I think most dads, they do it because they love it and obviously they love their kids, but they love the other kids too. I mean it really. And then the other thing is, if you've grown up playing sports, you know, at least for me, you know, you recognize how important these coaches are not only in the sport themselves. I mean, if you get a, if you get a kid who gets on a team with a bad coach and has a bad experience, they may quit the sport altogether.
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Carol Markowitz
Oh yeah.
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Tom Bevan
So it could totally change the trajectory, but even more so like in their, sort of, in their, their formation and their maturation. And a good coach can teach them the stuff that you can't get in the classroom. The stuff about, you know, leadership and discipline and adversity and perseverance and all that. STU adds a lot of that. And so that's, that's one of the other aspects that I love about it is like, you know, molding young men.
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Carol Markowitz
Yeah, it's amazing.
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Tom Bevan
Yeah.
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Carol Markowitz
We're going to take a quick break and be right back on the Carol Markowitz Show.
- [13:50]
Tom Bevan
This coffee shop running smooth thanks to Genius from Global Payments, Instant Transactions. Effortless inventory and synchronized operations. Big league reliability for any business. That's genius. Amazon Health AI presents Painful thoughts.
- [14:10]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
Why did I search the Internet for answers to my cold sore problem? Now I'm stuck down a rabbit hole filled with images of alarmingly graphic source in various stages of ooze. I can clear my search history, but I can never unsee that.
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Tom Bevan
Don't go down the rabbit hole. Amazon Health AI gets you the right care fast. Healthcare just got less painful.
- [14:36]
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- [15:35]
Ben Ferguson
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Carol Markowitz
tom, what are you most proud of in your life?
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Tom Bevan
Most proud of our family. You know, like I said, I got five kids.
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Carol Markowitz
Great answer. Yeah.
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Tom Bevan
Well, I just. I actually just said this to my wife yesterday because we're going through this phase now where, you know, two. Two kids are out of the house and we got, we're sending another one off to college next year. So then it'll just be us and our two youngest and a couple years beyond that, they're gonna be gone. And we were like, what are we gonna do?
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Carol Markowitz
Like what are you gonna do?
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Tom Bevan
What are we gonna do with all this time? Do we wanna move if we moo all that?
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Carol Markowitz
Yeah.
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Tom Bevan
And, and there's a lot of anxiety around that. And like, my God, we haven't just been the two of us a long time. And, and, but I turned to my wife and I said, you know, but like this was the, you know, we've, we've built a great family and it's the most important thing that we will ever do. And I, I don't think, you know, until you have kids, you don't realize that it's the most important job you'll ever have.
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Carol Markowitz
Yeah.
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Tom Bevan
And the most important thing you'll ever do in your life. No matter how much money you make or how much fame you achieve or any of that, at the end of the day it's just like, did you raise kids who are happy and healthy and productive and respectful and you know, I like to think that we've been able to do that. Knock on wood. Still got a ways to go.
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Carol Markowitz
Yeah, you let me know how it turns out. My oldest is a sophomore in high school and then I have a 13 and a 10 year old. So you have to tell me.
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Tom Bevan
Well, the other thing too. So Carl Cannon, and this is one of the funny jokes at Rookler podcast. I've got five kids. John McIntyre, the co founder, has four, Carl Cannon has three. So between us, you know, the leadership at Rookler Politics, we've got like, you know, a dozen kids and Carl's kids are a little bit older but you know, doesn't end at 18. Like they leave the house and then it is a 50, 60 year, you know, they will always be your kids and you will always try to help them whenever you can and be there for them.
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Carol Markowitz
So it's, it's easy to forget that because at Thanksgiving this last year, I looked at my, you know, then 15 year old daughter and I said, oh, you know, we only have you for like three more Thanksgiving. And she was like, where am I spending Thanksgiving? I'm going to be home for Thanksgiving. I just forgot that that's the case.
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Tom Bevan
You know, when I was, when Mitt Romney was running against Barack Obama in 2012, I interviewed him at his headquarters in Boston. And you know, one of the things That I respected most about Mitt Romney was his family.
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Carol Markowitz
And such a nice family.
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Tom Bevan
Such a nice family. And but he had said like they had, it was mandatory for the kids to come back for like holidays and they did like a family vacation every year. They had a multi million dollar lake.
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Carol Markowitz
Right. I feel like that's easier to do the mandatory vacation every year.
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Tom Bevan
But the, the premise, you know, was, was I thought really laudable.
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Carol Markowitz
Yeah.
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Tom Bevan
You know, as a family you just like we've talked about that where we just once a year we're going to be like A, we'd love for the kids to be able to come back every holiday, but B, we'd just be like there's one week a year where you set it aside and no matter what you're doing or whatever you, you know, end up doing in your life, like this is reserved for just us.
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Carol Markowitz
I love that. I'm going to totally make that happen. I'm going to write that down, give us a five year out prediction and it could be about anything at all
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Tom Bevan
five years from now. Oh, wow. That is a, that is a good question.
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Carol Markowitz
I mean, hold you to it.
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Tom Bevan
I know, yeah. This is gonna live forever online. Well, I could do something lame like say 5 years from now JD Vance will be president, which is very much a possibility.
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Carol Markowitz
Definitely.
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Tom Bevan
But I think I'm gonna say something a little more dramatic than that because you know, part of what we've done is we've been, we've, well, we've been part of, you know, this evolution of the media landscape over the last 25 years and watched these huge behemoth companies that, and Carl came from this world. You know, he used to work for Knight Ridder for like the San Jose Mercury News. And they had like a, you know, they had, they were making, they were printing money, I mean literally printing money. And he had these expense accounts and they had, you know, 12 regional reporters.
- [21:22]
Carol Markowitz
I missed that whole era really. It's very sad for me.
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Tom Bevan
He talks about the fact like they had reporters assigned to like each member of Congress or something and now they're, they don't even have anybody covering these guys. I think, I think we'll see a company like, and it might be the Washington Post go out of business.
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Carol Markowitz
Wow.
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Tom Bevan
In five years if they can't figure out how to turn it around or they will have to do what just happened to the Pittsburgh Post Gazette which is to be, you know, some taken over by like a non profit foundation. Jeff Bezos is not going to just funnel 50 or $100 million a year to fund that operation into the future. And if they can't figure out how to make some money and. And they've been caught in this vice, right, where they print, you know, they.
- [22:10]
Carol Markowitz
Right.
- [22:10]
Tom Bevan
They hire someone who's like, I don't know, center.
- [22:14]
Ben Ferguson
Center.
- [22:14]
Tom Bevan
Right. And suddenly they lose, like, a million subscribers because people freak, you know.
- [22:18]
Carol Markowitz
Yeah.
- [22:19]
Tom Bevan
So they're in a tough spot, and it's a tough business. And like I said, you know, it's nice to have a billionaire who's willing to just keep his checkbook open, but that kind of thing ain't gonna last forever. So that will be my. My super, super hot take. Prediction Washington Post.
- [22:35]
Carol Markowitz
I could absolutely see that coming true. You know, we're recording this as Hampshire College just announced their closing. I think a lot of, like, institutions that we kind of maybe think are there forever. And Hampshire, obviously is nowhere near Washington Post. But it's interesting because I think these things will close and disappear and, you know, vaguely be remembered.
- [22:58]
Tom Bevan
I mean, to me, that would be a watershed moment. And you've seen it happen to, like, regional papers and they, you know. But to have something like an institution like the Washington Post, that would be. That would be something.
- [23:12]
Carol Markowitz
It would. Tom, I've loved this conversation. I've loved getting to know you a little bit better. Leave us here with your best tip for my listeners on how they can improve their lives.
- [23:22]
Tom Bevan
The best tip for how listeners can improve their lives, I would say. And I'm going to go through some personal experience that if they haven't. And maybe they have. So I just became Catholic.
- [23:39]
Carol Markowitz
Wow. Congratulations.
- [23:40]
Tom Bevan
10 days ago. Yeah, it's confirmed in the Catholic Church. And actually my kids, who have led the way, which is interesting because after they were in public school until Covid hit, and after. After Covid, we put them in our youngest into a Catholic school. And just because, I mean, it was. And it was kind of personal, and we fell in love with this little parish down the street, started going to mass with the kids, and they got confirmed. And then my wife and I got confirmed this year, and I.
- [24:07]
Carol Markowitz
That's amazing. They were kind of older already, right?
- [24:10]
Tom Bevan
They were. At that point. They were.
- [24:11]
Carol Markowitz
Well, they weren't small as a.
- [24:14]
Tom Bevan
They were seventh and eighth grade. And then my. When he got confirmed, my current senior was like a sophomore in high school, and my oldest was like, 18 or 20. Yeah. So. But I would say to improve your daily lives, I'm very much into now. I think social media is. There have been some benefits, but I think it's clear now that it massively, the downsides massively outweigh that. And so, and I think we have as a society, we've tried to find joy and entertainment and spirituality in all of these other things, including politics, by the way, which in some ways has replaced religion and sports. So what I'm trying to do and what I find contentment in is get yourself on a faith journey. It doesn't have to be Christian, can be whatever, but could be just, you know, doing meditation or whatever. But try and try and your days will be better. Your mind will be clearer. You will have, I think, more joy and fulfillment if you can just quiet your mind and focus on, on being sort of the here and now, but also your sort of spiritual being. Because I think we are, as a, as a society have gone and I think we're seeing people go back to that and we see all these stories about Gen Z's now packing churches and they're doing, people are returning to. And I think if you're not already doing that, that would be my tip. I've found it to be really, it's been a good thing for me and I think it would be a good thing for everyone if they can just find that time. Carve out some space for yourself every single day.
- [26:02]
Carol Markowitz
I love that so much. He is Tom Bevin. Check him out at RealClearPolitics. Thank you so much, Tom for coming on.
- [26:07]
Tom Bevan
Thanks, Carol. Appreciate it.
- [26:11]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
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- [26:36]
Tom Bevan
Hi, I'm Jesse from Bonner, Montana.
- [26:38]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
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- [27:04]
Tom Bevan
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