The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: The Numbers Behind the Maduro Arrest: Polling Data, Military Intervention, Immigration, and America’s Cultural Shift

Date: January 7, 2026
Host/Guest: Ryan Girdusky (substitute/guest host)
Focus: How Americans are responding to the arrest of Nicolás Maduro, public opinion on military intervention and immigration, and the broader implications for U.S. culture and politics.

Episode Overview

Ryan Girdusky (as guest host) explores the American public's attitudes toward recent U.S. military action that resulted in the arrest of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. Drawing extensively on fresh polling data, he explains how reactions divide along partisan lines—with unique perspectives among Hispanic Americans. The discussion then pivots to immigration trends, the cultural assimilation of immigrant groups in Western societies, and the potential future impact on American society and cities. Girdusky shares statistical insights and cultural critiques, blending his characteristic humor and sharp analysis throughout.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Polling Data: Public Attitudes Toward Maduro’s Arrest

• Partisan Divides Dominate Opinions ([02:18]-[04:15])

  • Public support or opposition to Maduro's arrest is heavily shaped by political alignment.
    • Washington Post poll: 40% support the raid (74% of Republicans, 13% of Democrats, 34% of independents); 42% oppose.
    • Reuters poll: 37% support the arrest; 38% oppose.
  • Quote:

    “Basically, the Democrats and Republicans mirror each other, right? It's, it's strictly partisanship, almost entirely.” — Ryan Girdusky ([03:47])

  • Exception: Hispanics, particularly those of Venezuelan or Cuban descent, are more likely to back the operation regardless of U.S. partisanship.

• Independents and Ambivalence ([04:15])

  • High percentage of independents have no opinion, reflecting a knowledge gap or lack of engagement with Venezuelan politics.

• Attitudes Shift After the Operation's Success ([04:30]-[05:05])

  • Support increased following the operation's success (a 25-point swing), driven by the perception it was efficient, did not incur U.S. casualties, and quickly handled Maduro.

• Latin American Approval ([05:05]-[06:00])

  • An “Alica survey” showed overwhelming Latin American support:
    • 87% of Costa Ricans, 78% of Chileans, 77% of Colombians, 76% of Panamanians, 74% of Peruvians support the raid.
    • Mexico is less enthusiastic, possibly due to recent leftist electoral trends.
  • Quote:

    “All of Latin America wildly approves, wildly approves of it. The only country where it's on the margin is Mexico…” — Ryan Girdusky ([05:27])

• Should Maduro Go to Trial? ([06:00]-[07:25])

  • 50% of Americans believe Maduro should face trial for drug charges, including 79% of Republicans and 42% of independents.
  • Very few Americans oppose a trial (just 2% of Republicans, 15% of independents, 24% of Democrats).
  • Cross-tabs: Every demographic group leans toward trial.
  • Quote:

    “A plurality or majority support putting Nicolás Maduro on trial in the United States for drug charges.” — Ryan Girdusky ([07:22])

2. War-Weariness and Limits on Intervention

• Reluctance for Prolonged Military Action ([07:25]-[09:25])

  • Americans, scarred by Iraq and Afghanistan, reject the idea of protracted wars or occupations.
  • Poll: Only 24% support America “taking over” Venezuela to choose its new government (45% opposed).
    • Even among Trump supporters and Republicans, refusal rates are high.
  • Quote:

    “Americans don't want a prolonged war. They don't want another Afghanistan, they don't want another Iraq. We are just a war weary country.” — Ryan Girdusky ([07:44])

• Military Recruitment: Who Bears the Burden? ([10:00]-[12:20])

  • Military service is disproportionately from red counties and red states (South, Midwest, Texas, inland West).
  • Girdusky’s adage:

    “Kids in blue states wave foreign flags. Kids in red states get American flags draped over their coffin.” ([11:20])

  • Discussion on how Republicans, though proud of the operation’s outcome, are loath to see their communities pay the cost for another U.S.-led intervention, highlighting a split even within Trump's base.

3. Immigration & Cultural Assimilation: The UK Wealth Study ([19:04]-[27:45])

• Study from LSE: Immigrant Wealth Gaps in the UK

  • Explores how different immigrant groups have fared in wealth accumulation:
    • Wealth gains since 2012 are concentrated among White British and Indian groups; other groups (Black Africans, Caribbeans, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis) are stagnant or in decline.
    • High remittance rates mean money is sent “home,” undermining wealth accumulation in host nations.
    • Top income brackets within minority groups perform well; the broad middle/working-class majority do not.
  • Cultural Transplant Thesis ([25:28]-[27:00]):
    • Ryan references Garrett Jones’ book: Immigrants tend to reproduce the economic and social traits of their home societies no matter where they settle—even two or three generations on.
    • “Culture changes us more than we change them.”

• U.S. Parallels: Welfare Use and Economic Mobility ([27:45]-[29:45])

  • Shares Trump’s social-media post showing high welfare use among specific groups (e.g., Bhutanese, Yemeni, Somali, Dominican, Afghan immigrants).
  • Argues that host countries bear high welfare costs, and low-performing groups tend to remain dependent for generations.
  • Raises provocative questions about selection criteria for future immigrants, especially with looming automation and demographic pressures.
  • Quote:

    “Is it worth U.S. spending million plus dollars over two generations to hopefully get to a third or fourth generation where they're producing and promoting prosperity in our own country?” — Ryan Girdusky ([29:02])

4. Ask Me Anything: Is New York City Doomed to Repeat Patterns of Decline? ([32:41]-[39:50])

• Listener: Greg from New Jersey asks whether New York’s current far-left turn (electing Mandani) mirrors cultural tendencies more than actual generational change ([32:41]).
• Girdusky’s Analysis:
  • New York’s character has changed due to new waves of both international and domestic migrants, not “native” city dwellers.
  • Argues that idealistic newcomers are “trying to enjoy the fruits of prosperity, but couldn't deal with the actual cost.”
  • Predicts that the radical direction under Mandani may backfire, especially as “real New Yorkers” (natives) are now a minority.
  • Raises the risk of demonizing economic minorities (e.g., homeownership linked to “whiteness”), which throughout history “have been persecuted the fastest and the hardest.”
  • Quote:

    “New York City sleeps. … The New York of legend and lore does not exist anymore.” ([33:05]) “Whites have an economic dominance in New York despite being a minority of the population. … Those are the groups who are persecuted the fastest and the hardest.” ([37:00])

  • Ends on the notion that radical change often fails, and hindsight may bring regret to coalition groups that pushed for it.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On U.S. Foreign Policy Attitudes:

  “A lot of people are in this country, not a majority, but a big slice, really don't have an opinion. They're not as highly informed on Venezuelan policy.” — Ryan Girdusky ([04:06])

• On Military Burden:

  “It is not an even distribution of sacrifice. … And when you compare that map to the 2024 election, it is overwhelmingly counties with high enlistment rates have voted for President Trump.” — Ryan Girdusky ([10:40])

• On Generational Assimilation:

  “Culture doesn't change because people move. It doesn't change even when they're born into a certain place, if they're still more ingratiated in their, in their ethnic culture that they came from.” — Ryan Girdusky ([26:38])

• On Immigration Policy:

  “Is it worth it as a country then to bring in cultures that stay impoverished generation to generation to generation…?” — Ryan Girdusky ([29:01])

• On New York & Mandani:

  “Those New Yorkers are either in the cemetery, are in Florida or are a minority in their own city.” — Ryan Girdusky ([39:36])

Key Takeaways

• Americans remain cautious about foreign military intervention—even after “successful” strikes or arrests.
• Partisan identity shapes foreign policy attitudes. Exceptions exist among Hispanic populations with personal ties to Venezuela/Cuba.
• Military burden is uneven—rural, red-leaning American communities bear the cost.
• Immigrant economic integration is complex and varies dramatically by source country and cultural background. Long-term welfare dependency and remittance outflows challenge net benefits for some groups.
• American and Western cities face cultural shifts. Local politics and demographic changes are fundamentally altering cities like New York, which now walk the line between prosperity and radicalism.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode arms you with the polling numbers and cultural debates driving current headlines—from the politics of the Maduro arrest to deeper worries about America’s future cultural and economic identity. Girdusky’s sharp, data-driven perspective offers a cautionary tale on the risks of both foreign intervention and uncritical immigration policy—always with an eye on how these trends shape, and sometimes shake, our cities and communities.