Podcast Summary: The Truth with Lisa Booth

Episode: Can Trump’s Polling Power Propel Republicans in the Midterms with John McLaughlin
Release Date: May 22, 2025
Host: Lisa Booth
Guest: John McLaughlin, Renowned Pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates

1. Introduction to the Episode

In this episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, Lisa Booth engages in an insightful conversation with John McLaughlin, a prominent pollster known for his work with former President Donald Trump. The discussion centers around President Trump's current polling strength and its potential influence on the Republican Party's performance in the upcoming midterm elections.

2. Current Polling of Trump and Republicans

John McLaughlin begins by addressing the latest polling data regarding President Trump's approval ratings. He emphasizes that his polling methods differ from mainstream media by focusing separately on policy approval and personality approval.

• John McLaughlin [03:54]: "We ask it like we did in the campaign where we'll ask the approve of both his policies and personality... his policies are more popular than his personality."

According to McLaughlin, a recent survey conducted on April 29th revealed that Trump has a 50% approval rating with 45% disapproval. Additionally, a targeted poll in 35 Republican battleground congressional districts showed Trump enjoying a 55% approval among 1,000 likely voters.

• John McLaughlin [06:18]: "Trump has a 55 approval rating, 43 disapprove. So, you know, he's going to help them. He's the path to define history and winning the midterm elections."

3. Analysis of Polling Methods

McLaughlin critiques mainstream media polls, suggesting they underrepresent Trump’s support by diluting his voter base with non-voters or those unfavorable to him.

• John McLaughlin [09:50]: "They're skewing the polls by diluting them with adults or non-voters who they know don't like Trump."

He argues that his firm's likely voter model, which includes exit polls and voter data, provides a more accurate reflection of Trump's true support.

4. The Media’s Role in Polling

The conversation delves into how certain media outlets may intentionally skew polls against Trump. McLaughlin cites examples from the 2020 election where polls underestimated Trump’s support.

• John McLaughlin [08:39]: "These people are too smart because one time in 2020 election... they said we were down 17. President Trump called me... he said they would do that."

He suggests that biased polling contributes to misleading narratives about Trump's popularity and the Republican Party's prospects.

5. The Trump Coalition: Demographics and Supporters

McLaughlin outlines the unique coalition Trump has built, which includes diverse demographic groups:

• Hispanic Voters: Trump secured 46% of the Hispanic voter record for Republicans, surpassing George W. Bush's 44% in 2004.

• African American Voters: Achieved 21% support among African American men.

• Younger Voters: Increased support among younger demographics.

• Suburban Women: Gained traction by addressing cultural issues, such as opposition to Kamala Harris’s proposed taxes on 401ks and homes.

• John McLaughlin [21:24]: "He's still doing very well within the polls right now because it's better than what they have, better opportunities and a little better life and more hope than what they were dealing with, Joe Biden."

6. Midterm Election Forecast

Discussing the potential outcomes of the midterms, McLaughlin remains optimistic but cautious. He acknowledges historical trends where the incumbent party typically loses seats in the House during midterms but believes Trump's strong base can counteract this.

• John McLaughlin [25:17]: "If we don't get, if we don't have a growing economy... The Democrats are defending human traffickers."

He points to specific policy successes, such as border security and economic measures, that could bolster Republican performance.

7. Historical Context and Comparisons

McLaughlin draws parallels between Trump's strategies and historical Republican successes:

• Ronald Reagan: Highlighting Reagan’s tax cuts and economic growth.

• George W. Bush Post-9/11: Emphasizing economic stimulus and timely tax cuts.

• John McLaughlin [36:27]: "Ronald Reagan collapsed the Soviet empire because his tax cuts grew the American economy."

8. Policy Focus: Tax Cuts and Economic Growth

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the importance of making Trump's tax cuts permanent:

• John McLaughlin [05:30]: "We need to get his tax cuts passed... the Trump tax cuts will be made permanent."

He argues that these tax cuts are crucial for sustained economic growth, job creation, and combating inflation.

• John McLaughlin [07:56]: "If we don't make the Trump tax cuts permanent, you will see, my friend Steve Forbes says, you won't just see a recession, you'll see a depression."

McLaughlin highlights voter awareness issues, noting that a substantial percentage are unaware of the impending lapse of these tax cuts but support their permanence once informed.

9. Tariffs and Trade Policies

The conversation also covers Trump's tariff policies, acknowledging their complexity but reaffirming their role in protecting American jobs and industries.

• John McLaughlin [37:39]: "President's base is solid. They think they understand what he's doing. He's trying to save American jobs, keep manufacturing here."

He compares the current tariff strategy to previous successful economic policies, emphasizing long-term benefits despite short-term complexities.

10. Future Outlook for GOP and America First Coalition

Looking ahead to 2028, McLaughlin discusses the sustainability of the America First coalition. He believes Republicans can maintain and even expand this coalition by continuing to address key issues:

• John McLaughlin [33:03]: "It's not a cult of personality. It's a movement... America first from the get-go."

He stresses the importance of Republicans remaining united on core issues like tax policy, border security, and economic growth to retain and grow their diverse supporter base.

11. Conclusion

The episode concludes with McLaughlin expressing confidence in Trump's ability to influence the midterms positively for the Republican Party. He underscores the historic nature of Trump's support and the solid foundation built through strategic policy initiatives.

• John McLaughlin [38:09]: "There's really a strong foundation here for President Trump to be a... historic presidency where, you know, he's only been in office since January and he's trying to, you know, literally bring the world back to peace and prosperity."

Lisa Booth thanks McLaughlin for his insights, highlighting the importance of his expertise as the midterms approach.

Notable Quotes:

• John McLaughlin [03:54]:
  "His policies are more popular than his personality. He doesn't get a fair shake from the, you know, the left wing legacy media."

• John McLaughlin [07:56]:
  "If we don't make the Trump tax cuts permanent, you will see, my friend Steve Forbes says, you won't just see a recession, you'll see a depression."

• John McLaughlin [21:24]:
  "He's still doing very well within the polls right now because it's better than what they have, better opportunities and a little better life and more hope than what they were dealing with, Joe Biden."

• John McLaughlin [36:27]:
  "Ronald Reagan collapsed the Soviet empire because his tax cuts grew the American economy."

Key Takeaways:

• Trump's Enduring Support: Despite media narratives, Trump's approval ratings remain robust, particularly among Republican core voters.

• Polling Accuracy: McLaughlin criticizes mainstream polls for underrepresenting Trump’s support, advocating for more accurate polling methodologies based on likely voters.

• Strategic Policy Focus: Emphasizing tax cuts and economic growth as pivotal policies to drive Republican success in the midterms.

• Diverse Coalition: Trump has successfully built a diverse supporter base across various demographics, crucial for broad electoral appeal.

• Midterm Implications: While historical trends predict losses for the incumbent party, Trump's strong base and strategic policies could mitigate these effects for Republicans.

• Future Prospects: Sustaining the America First movement and addressing key economic and cultural issues are essential for long-term Republican success.

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the discussions surrounding Trump's polling power and its potential impact on the Republican Party's performance in the midterm elections.