The Truth with Lisa Boothe: Gordon Chang — How Iran & Venezuela’s Collapse Hurts China—and What It Means for Taiwan

Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Host: Lisa Boothe
Guest: Gordon Chang (China Analyst, Author)
Date: March 12, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Lisa Boothe sits down with renowned China analyst and author Gordon Chang to examine the global ripple effects of recent U.S. actions in Venezuela and Iran—namely, the removal of Maduro’s government in Venezuela and the U.S.-Israeli decimation of Iran’s leadership. The discussion focuses on how these developments undermine China's geopolitical strategy, compromise its access to cheap energy, and impact its posture toward Taiwan. The conversation provides deep insight into Chinese military and economic vulnerabilities, Xi Jinping’s risk calculus, and the growing challenge posed by China’s totalitarian surveillance state.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. China’s Use of Iran and Venezuela as Proxies

(04:48 – 07:39)

• Iran and Venezuela as “Chinese Proxies”: Chang asserts both countries acted as important levers in China’s campaign to disrupt global order and pressure the U.S., receiving extensive economic, diplomatic, and military backing from Beijing.
  • “Both Venezuela and Iran were Chinese proxies… those regimes were able to maintain themselves because of Beijing.” — Gordon Chang, (04:48)
• Iran’s dependence on China: 90% of Iran’s oil exports (87.2% last year) went to China. China supplied Iran with advanced technology, diplomatic cover, and weapons (including components for drones and nuclear weapons).
• Venezuela’s regime stability: The Chavez and Maduro governments survived largely due to Chinese support—money, arms, and political cover.

2. The Strategic Logic: Mao’s Playbook & Creating Chaos

(06:12 – 07:39)

• Chang explains that Xi Jinping lifted tactics from Mao Zedong:
  • “Encircling the cities from the countryside”—using proxies to surround and pressure the U.S.
  • Promotion of chaos—fueling instability in the Middle East and at the southern U.S. border.
• Example: Venezuelan money and organization helped propel migration caravans under Biden, viewed as coordinated disruption.

3. Impact of U.S. Military Actions—A Signal to China

(07:39 – 09:34)

• The U.S. demonstrated overwhelming force in both theaters, revealing the vulnerable underbelly of China’s extended strategies.
  • Chinese weaponry provided to Iran and Venezuela performed poorly in real combat.
  • “It tells the Chinese that the United States is willing to use force to achieve its goals…when the Chinese are worried about us, it means they are cautious.” — Gordon Chang, (08:12)
• Chang contends China now takes the U.S. more seriously—especially after bold moves like the extraction of Maduro—and becomes more circumspect in its foreign policy.

4. Does This Make a Taiwan Invasion More or Less Likely?

(09:34 – 12:26)

• U.S. distraction as an opportunity? Lisa raises whether U.S. global commitments invite aggression elsewhere.
• Chang: While China perceives the U.S. as “tied down,” its own military is severely weakened by recent purges and disarray at the top. The chain of command in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is broken—with only Xi and a political commissar active in the Central Military Commission of seven.
  • “The Chinese military has been decimated… the chain of command has been severed… for the first time in the history of the People’s Republic.” — Gordon Chang, (10:17)
• Assessment: An invasion of Taiwan is unlikely for now. The risk of accidental war, however, remains high.

5. Xi Jinping’s Domestic Calculus: Tension Prevents Challenge

(16:16 – 18:43)

• Xi maintains high external tension not to rally the public for war—but to forestall a coup from within the Communist Party’s elite.
• He faces total accountability for China’s woes (thanks to dismantling collective leadership) and so escalates risk to avoid blame and threats to his rule.
  • “He ended up with total accountability. This is great… in 2017 when everything is going China’s way… not so great in 2026 when things are definitely not going your way.” — Gordon Chang, (17:09)
• The prospect of Xi “rolling the dice” grows as his insecurity mounts, making blundering into conflict plausible.

6. Military Capabilities: More Bark than Bite?

(19:44 – 22:04)

• The PLA may seem formidable but Chang argues it’s crippled by politicization, poor morale, and inferior tactics—despite advanced hardware.
  • “I actually think that China’s military is really good in intimidating others to back down. But when it comes to a fight, I just don’t think that they’re up to it.” — Gordon Chang, (21:34)
• Notably, the most senior purged PLA general advised against war, citing unpreparedness since China’s failed 1979 Vietnam campaign.

7. The Economic Fallout: Oil, Sanctions, and Financial Pain

(22:04 – 23:29)

• The collapse of Iranian and Venezuelan oil supplies means China loses access to discounted energy, driving up fuel prices sharply—diesel up 13.5%.
• China must now buy more expensive oil from Russia or tap into finite reserves. The upshot: Growing economic strain amidst China’s broader downturn.
  • “This is not a mortal shock, but considering everything else… it really hurts China at a crucial time.” — Gordon Chang, (22:21)

8. Prospects for Domestic Dissent in China

(23:29 – 27:53)

• Chang describes China’s extraordinarily sophisticated surveillance state—comparable only to North Korea in pervasiveness but powered by AI and mass data gathering.
• Spontaneous mass protests do break out (with the 2022 iPhone factory revolt and Shanghai’s “down with Xi Jinping” chants as prime examples), but are typically quelled.
  • “They are able to control the Chinese people almost all the time—until they can’t.” — Gordon Chang, (23:54)
• Pessimism and hopelessness dampen protest, but desperation might ignite further unrest.

9. AI & Totalitarian Control: The Surveillance State

(26:01 – 27:53; 31:45 – 33:29)

• China’s surveillance state leverages hundreds of millions of cameras, behavioral “social credit” systems, cell phone tracking, and neighborhood monitors.
• U.S. surveillance exists, but Chang highlights the democratic guardrails that (still) distinguish America:
  • “The difference… is that our government is democratically elected. That means if people don’t want the surveillance, they can stop it.” — Gordon Chang, (32:04)
• Central bank digital currencies are identified as a looming tool for government control.

10. American National Security: Bio-Weapons, Open Borders, and Chinese Agents

(33:29 – 37:49)

• Lisa and Chang warn about Chinese biological weapons operations discovered on American soil (Las Vegas and California in 2022–2026).
• The open U.S. border, especially under Biden, is blamed for the influx of not only desperate migrants but also Chinese military-age men with suspected PLA ties.
  • “At some border crossings, 85% of the Chinese migrants were single males of military age traveling without family members, some pretending not to speak English. Border Patrol knew that some of them had links to the Chinese military.” — Gordon Chang, (35:23)
• Similar concerns are raised for Iranian operatives post-2023. Federal agencies are described as “overwhelmed” and the threat as urgent.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the deterrence effect of recent U.S. actions:

  “When the Chinese are worried about us, it means they are cautious. And when they're cautious, they tend not to do things that are adverse to our interests…”
  — Gordon Chang, (08:12)

• On Xi Jinping’s mentality:

  “Xi Jinping’s mentality is, look, I’m being blamed for everything and I could lose everything. I think that he can just decide to roll the dice, which means China cannot de-escalate.”
  — Gordon Chang, (17:55)

• On PLA morale and readiness:

  “Communist militaries have two reporting lines: a military reporting line and a political reporting line… Two lines of communication and authority in a military just doesn't work at all.”
  — Gordon Chang, (20:26)

• On revolutionary sentiment in China:

  “People were in the streets chanting, down with Xi Jinping, down with the Communist Party. … That is revolutionary.”
  — Gordon Chang, (23:54)

• On the domestic effect of surveillance in China:

  “We should stop talking about China as authoritarian… It's at least semi-totalitarian. … Even totalitarian would not be inappropriate.”
  — Gordon Chang, (27:44)

Timestamps for Major Sections

• [04:48] – Why Venezuela and Iran were critical “proxies” for China
• [06:21] – Mao’s playbook and China’s chaos-centric strategy
• [08:12] – U.S. military moves: effects on China’s calculations
• [10:17] – PLA purges and incapacity for a Taiwan invasion
• [16:24] – Xi Jinping’s personal incentives and risk behavior
• [19:44] – China’s military strengths and limitations
• [22:21] – Energy supply shocks and economic vulnerability
• [23:54] – Chinese protest likelihood and past outbreaks
• [26:21] – The AI-driven totalitarian surveillance society
• [32:04] – Surveillance in the U.S. vs. China
• [33:34] – Urgency of national security: Chinese agents and bio-lab threats

Conclusion

Gordon Chang delivers a sobering, detail-rich analysis of the intersection between U.S. actions in Iran/Venezuela and Chinese global ambitions. The conversation navigates military purges, economic destabilization, societal control through surveillance and AI, and the acute risks of open U.S. borders in this new era of strategic competition and asymmetric threats. Chang urges realism, vigilance, and a greater focus on the often-overlooked levers of Chinese influence and internal instability.

“We can lose our country because we’re not understanding the situation we’re in. This is a crucial time…” — Gordon Chang, (33:34)