The Truth with Lisa Boothe: Post-Election Wake-Up Call: GOP Struggles, Democrat Momentum, and What’s Next for 2026

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Truth with Lisa Boothe

Episode Title: Post-Election Wake-Up Call: GOP Struggles, Democrat Momentum, and What’s Next for 2026
Release Date: November 6, 2025
Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (iHeartPodcasts)
Host: Lisa Boothe
Guest: Ryan Girdusky (Host, The Numbers Game podcast)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the fallout and implications from the most recent U.S. elections, exploring what the disappointing results mean for Republicans and how Democrats have built momentum heading into 2026. Lisa Boothe and political analyst Ryan Girdusky discuss turnout, messaging, and the structural and strategic hurdles facing the GOP. The conversation extends to broader themes: the challenges of motivating conservative voters, the rise of left-wing figures like Zoran Mamdani, primary dynamics for both parties, and what’s coming in 2026 and beyond.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Election Night Autopsy – Republican Struggles

• Turnout Issues Drove GOP Losses

  • In states like New Jersey and Virginia, GOP voter turnout lagged significantly behind Democrats.
    • New Jersey: 21% of voters were Republicans; 27% were Democrats.
    • Virginia: Close to 30% Democrats vs. 22% Republicans.
  • Trend is partly cyclical (“not something to lose your mind over”), but down-ballot races in red states bucked expectations and signaled deeper issues.
  • Quote (Ryan):
    “Part of it was... voter turnout which happens normally... But... in places like Mississippi, in Georgia, in Kansas ... people were voting for the Democrat for city council, voting for the Democrat for town supervisor just to sit there and stick it to Trump.” (04:48–06:00)

• Normal Cycles or a Warning Sign?

  • The swing from previous GOP wave years (2010, 2014) is not unique, but the inability to rally core Republican and independent voters is concerning heading into 2026.
  • Economic anxiety continues to hurt the GOP; many hoped Trump could reverse COVID-era inflation, but cost-of-living issues persist.
    • Quote (Ryan):
      “Inflation is down, but prices are high like they were before COVID... Either wages have to go up considerably or job growth has to happen that really hasn’t happened.” (07:10–07:45)

• Missed Opportunities for Voter Engagement

  • The GOP did not effectively test ways to raise voter enthusiasm in smaller, lower-stakes races that could have been used to refine turnout strategies.
    • Quote (Ryan): “These inconsequential races... should have been where they tested out how do we try to increase voter turnout among low propensity voters.” (10:55–11:28)

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2. Deep Dive: Margins and Models (NJ & VA Races)

• Unexpectedly Wide Margins

  • Despite getting more votes than previous cycles, GOP candidates like Jack Cittarelli “still got smoked.”
    • Cittarelli received 70% of the Trump vote; his opponent, Mikey Sherrill, captured 81% of Kamala Harris’s. It was a question of intensity, not just numbers.
    • Quote (Lisa):
      “I thought Jack Cittarelli would at least come close. But he got smoked.” (08:39–09:06)

• Campaign Models Weren’t Enough

  • Strategies based on normal turnout projections faltered due to exceptional circumstances and anti-Trump sentiment.
    • “There are some things that are exterior that you cannot fix.” (09:06–10:54)

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3. Looking Ahead: Republican Strategy for 2026 and Midterms

• Ballot Initiatives as a Turnout Tool

  • Following the Democratic success with abortion referenda, the GOP could use ballot measures—on English as official language, welfare reform for illegal immigrants, transgender sports, etc.—to mobilize their base.
    • Quote (Ryan):
      “Get ballot initiatives there to ... generate excitement around ... lower propensity Republican voter. This is what Bush did in ’04...” (15:37–16:48)

• Motivating Non-Traditional and Independent Conservatives

  • Many “Trump voters” are not registered Republicans; the key is developing messages and policies that resonate with both traditional conservatives and disgruntled independents.
    • “How do you turn over conservatives, Trump voters who are not registered Republicans, which is a lot of them right?” (07:55–08:10)

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4. Democratic Momentum: The Zoran Mamdani Win in NYC

• Demographic and Messaging Shifts

  • Mandani’s victory reflects the influx of highly progressive younger voters in NYC but also successful coalition-building with immigrants and Asians.
  • Democrats lost registration outside of Manhattan and Brooklyn, signaling intense urban polarization.
  • Quote (Ryan):
    “New York has kind of become a sponge for the blue haired, multi pronoun voter... [Mandani] built a coalition of like the purple hair, blue haired, multi gender people and also a lot of recent immigrants and a lot of Asians...” (17:06–17:58)

• Moderate vs. Progressive Vote Splits

  • In NYC, Mandani lost Black and Hispanic votes in the primary but saw his opponent lose their support in the general, leading to upset.
    • Cuomo “wasn’t up for the challenge” and coasted on name recognition, a pattern that may repeat itself with other untested candidates (e.g., Gavin Newsom).
    • Quote (Ryan): “We really didn’t realize that the emperor had no clothes.” (21:27–22:32)

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5. 2028 Presidential Primary Outlook

• Democratic Primary Maneuvers

  • The DNC’s decision to prioritize South Carolina is meant to block progressive insurgents like AOC, as Black voters generally support moderates in primaries.
  • Quote (Ryan):
    “If the Democrats stick to South Carolina being first... it means they want to stop an AOC. ... I talked to a really smart Democrat consultant, and they said it’s not a question of if a socialist will be the nominee, it’s just a question of when.” (21:50–22:43)

• Republican Primary Landscape

  • Expect a large GOP field post-Trump, with incentives (“failing up”) for candidates to run and increase their profiles—even if they lack a path to victory.
  • “There are a lot of personalities in the conservative movement who are living off of the Trump economy. ... They are all sitting there ... [wondering] how do I still make money without him in office?” (23:30–25:35)

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6. JD Vance as a 2028 Candidate

• Strengths and Electoral Implications
  • Girdusky, who worked for JD Vance, calls him “much stronger than people think,” “very thoughtful,” and predicts he’ll run an aggressive campaign able to appeal to diverse voters.
    • The 2028 cycle will be the Midwest’s last as presidential kingmakers, as demographic and redistricting trends shift the focus to the Sunbelt and South.
    • Quote (Ryan):
      “He would be an aggressive campaigner and I think ... appeal to a lot of voters. 2028 will be the last presidential year for at least a decade where the Midwest will matter.” (30:59–32:11)

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7. Midterm Outlook and Redistricting

• Senate:
  • Democrats are recruiting “top” candidates in key states (e.g., North Carolina); Republicans have an edge unless a blue wave happens.
• House:
  • The GOP held all Trump+4 or greater state house seats in Virginia, capping potential Democratic gains. But “the dust still hasn’t settled” on maps and the playing field is volatile.
  • Quote (Ryan):
    “There’s probably like nine [Democratic seats] that are still competitive... after California and Virginia redistrict, what’s left of the Republicans.” (32:30–33:46)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Democratic turnout:
  “[People were] voting for the Democrat ... just to stick it to Trump.” — Ryan Girdusky (06:00)

• On GOP messaging:
  “How do you get low propensity Republicans to show up because we’re not super great at when Trump’s not on the ballot.” — Ryan Girdusky (07:38)

• On NYC’s political trends:
  “New York has kind of become a sponge for the blue haired, multi pronoun voter...” — Ryan Girdusky (17:07)

• On campaign models failing:
  “Cittarelli built a model for a normal election year. He would have won any governor’s election going back since 1973. He just wasn’t in a normal election cycle.” — Ryan Girdusky (09:40)

• On 2028 primaries:
  “It’s not a question of if a socialist will be the nominee [for Democrats], it’s just a question of when.” — Ryan Girdusky (22:42)

• On politics as a profession:
  “Politics is an industry where a lot of people fail up and it is what it is.” — Ryan Girdusky (25:40)

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Segment Timestamps

• Opening election analysis & turnout figures: (03:15–08:39)
• Margin discussion & campaign model breakdown: (08:39–11:28)
• Ballot initiatives & turnout in 2026: (15:26–16:48)
• NYC, Zoran Mamdani & progressive coalitions: (16:48–21:27)
• 2028 primaries (Dem/Rep) and party divides: (21:27–26:52)
• JD Vance as a candidate & electoral trends: (30:52–32:11)
• Midterms and redistricting landscape: (32:11–33:46)

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Tone & Style Observations

• Lisa Boothe’s approach: Direct, inquisitive, and focused on the practical outcomes and “what’s next” for the GOP.
• Ryan Girdusky’s style: Analytical, occasionally sardonic, candid with inside-baseball political anecdotes and strategic takes.

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Summary for Non-Listeners

This episode serves as a razor-sharp post-mortem on the most recent election cycle, breaking down why GOP losses aren’t merely cyclical but signal deeper problems with turnout and messaging—especially with Trump off the ballot. Guest Ryan Girdusky brings data, campaign strategy, and a realistic (sometimes biting) take on what’s happening both in party politics and demographic trends. Essential listening for understanding how both parties are plotting their futures and the structural currents that could shape American politics into 2026, 2028, and beyond.

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Transcript

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[Lisa Booth]

Welcome to the Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get to the heart of the issues that matter to you. Today we're going to talk about Tuesday night's election results. Was it a brutal wake up call for Republicans? Was it a referendum on President Trump? Should Republicans be worried heading into the midterms? We're going to ask Ryan Gardusky. He is the host of the Numbers Game podcast. He is great at breaking all of this down. We'll also talk about Zoran Mamdani's stunning victory in New York City electing a socialist. You know, Republicans want to make him the face of the Democrat Party. Will that hold? Does it matter? Stay tuned for all of that. More with Ryan Gradusky. Ryan, it's great to have you back on the podcast. I am looking forward to hearing what you have to say about Tuesday night's election results. If we should be worried, how worried we should be. So appreciate you making the time.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Right. Thank you for having me, my fellow member of the Buck and Clay Network. So this is very exciting.

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[Lisa Booth]

We're, I guess, teammates.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Colleagues. I guess so. We're colleagues. How excited. I've always wanted a colleague.

[Lisa Booth]

I mean, Ryan, that means we're basically best friends, like stepbrothers that we. All right, so Tuesday night, Ryan, not a great night for Republicans, obviously, I guess. Big takeaways from Tuesday night. How do you read it? Looking at the tea leaves. What do they tell us?

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, part of it was a simple calculation of voter enthusiasm. So, like in New Jersey and I just got these numbers, about 21% of all registered Republicans came out and vote in New Jersey, while around 27% of. Sorry, I'll take that back. 21% of all registered vote people who came out were Republicans versus about 27% who were Democrats. And In Virginia it was close to 30% while Republicans were around 22%. So a big part of it was just voter turnout which happens normally, right? In, in. There have been four elections in Virginia, New Jersey where there was a Republican president since the year 2003. Of those four elections, including last Tuesday, the Democrat got 56% and the other one he got 53%. So it's part of it is very normal. Part of it was a larger problem where you saw down ballot races outside of New York and Virginia, in places like Mississippi, in Georgia, in Kansas, in red state America and Pennsylvania where people were voting for the Democrat for city council, voting for the Democrat for town supervisor just to sit there and stick it to Trump. Right. So that's where it becomes a little anxiety inducing is ripple effect throughout the rest of the country and building a field. I think there are. So part of it's normal, right? Part of it's completely normal. And part of it it's just the election cycle and Democrats have had wave elections in 06 and 08 and Republicans have had wave cycles in 2010 and 2014. And it's not something to lose your mind over. And then part of it is a big question about enthusiasm. How do you get low propensity Republicans to show up because we're not super great at when Trump's not on the ballot. And then part of the question is how do you counter a lot of anxiety over the economy? You know, the economy is not great. People amount of young people getting out of college trying to find their first job with good degrees is very, very difficult right now. Prices are, inflation is down, but prices are high like they were before COVID And that's what a lot of people, I think when they voted for Trump they were hoping that he could reverse the post Covid years of high inflation and really that de inflationary period was never going to come. And isn't something hard to explain away. Either wages have to go up considerably or job growth has to happen that really hasn't happened. They blamed a lot of it on tariffs, but tariffs is a small portion and why the cost of living has increased. Right. Home mortgages have gone up, insurance has gone up, both health and your home insurance and your car note. All these things are why people are living in credit card debt and from credit card to credit card. So there's a perfect store and there's a government shutdown. So in Virginia all the government workers who were, who were out of work and angry at somebody blamed the President. So there's all Those things happening at the same time, it's really a perfect storm. Nonetheless, it's not something to lose your mind over. And I think looking forward into the 2026 election, the big question is one, how do you manage to sit there and win over back Independence? Because Republicans lost them last. Last Tuesday, even in with a good candidate like Jack Cittarelli, who got more votes than he received last time by 122,000. Winston Sears was not. She lost by 200,000 votes from what Glenn Youngkin got. But how do you make sure you can win over Independence with that winning message? How do you turn over conservatives, Trump voters who are not registered Republicans, which is a lot of them, right? A lot of them are just kind of our independents and they don't have a political partisanship and they don't live for politics like some other people do. I think that's the really big question going into 2026, if you want to avoid losing the House, which is on a coin toss.

[Lisa Booth]

But so I guess what concerns me is looking at the margins, right? Because you look at states like New Jersey and Virginia, you know, Trump lost them in 2024 by about 6%, despite sweeping, you know, all seven swing states, winning the popular vote. But I wasn't expecting. So I, So I thought that there was a, you know, I thought that winsome Sears was going to lose, but I thought Jack Cittarelli would at least come close. But he got smoked. I mean, I know he got more votes than he did in 2021, but he still got smoked.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, I mean, the overall total was. I mean, Jack Cittarelli got around 70% of the Trump vote. It's just that Mikey Sherrill got 81% of the Kamala Harris vote. And that's a question of voter intensity, right? Of how much do you want to sit there and show up. And I'm like, we make fun of the people who go to the no Kings rally, but there's a sizable chunk of people who would sit there and go to the no Kings rally, and they live to vote against. Against Republicans and against Trump specifically. So that's, I mean, that's, That's a big part. He lost. When you run a campaign, the first thing you do is you build a model of how many votes do I need to win. Cittarelli built a model for a normal election year. He would have won any governor's election going back since 1973. He just wasn't in a normal election cycle. And there's nothing really that he could do about that and even Winston was a great candidate. Even Jason Miar who was a good candidate. You can't be kind of an election cycle. I'll tell you a story. So on my podcast today, I had a friend who was running for in New York in a Republican leaning area as a Republican to replace a conservative, a very conservative Democrat and campaign hard, had the money, had the infrastructure, did all the work running against a Democrat who got evicted from his campaign office and was working out of a U haul van and she got 5,000 more votes than had ever that any Republican had ever received, including that former incumbent. And she still lost. It's just a matter of there are some things that are exterior that you cannot fix. And what the Trump campaign should have done in the Trump political team should have done in my opinion is they should have picked some small races that are inconsequential to the national news cycle. Like we lost the mayor's race in Beaver, Pennsylvania. Who cares or been your Beaver, Pennsylvania. It's not a, you know, I mean.

[Lisa Booth]

That kept me up at night.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, but nonetheless it was, it's important because it's a very, very Republican suburb of Pittsburgh that we should never lose. We lost the DA's race of, of Bucks county for the very first time ever. These inconsequential races that are not super important should have been where they tested out. How do we try to increase voter turnout among low propensity voters? And, and, and that would have been, and that would have been a good model to sit there and try to figure out how to deal with 2026.

[Lisa Booth]

Got to take a quick break. More with Ryan on the other side.

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[Lisa Booth]

Looking ahead at the midterms, obviously, you know, President Trump's gonna be in office, but he's not gonna be on the ballot to drive turnout. So like, how do Republicans get their base excited?

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, I think, I mean, if you want to, you know, complete political strategy as a consultant, what I would try to do in these critical states like North Carolina, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Georgia, where there's key Senate states, I would try to put ballot initiatives on there, make English the official language. No, reform the, the welfare thing for illegal immigrants, things that Republicans are transgender, sports. I mean, whatever you want that bring 80% Republican turnout in, get the ballot initiatives there to sit there and generate excitement around the, you know, lower propensity Republican voter. This is what Bush did in OH four, which is very effective. It's been tried then to a lesser effective degree by Romney in 2012. But it is effective when they've, when they've tried. Democrats have done it too, by the way, with abortion. Abortion, they've done it for sure to sit there and turn out Democrat, Democrats votes. So there are things that you could sit there and do around immigration and identity to drive out lower propensity non college educated voters. But that is really where I think that they need to spend energy and time.

[Lisa Booth]

You know, looking at Zoharan Mamdani's when obviously Republicans are going to try to make him the face of the Democrat Party and we'll see how successful that is. Is that just indicative of a very liberal city or is this a directional change within the Democrat Party more broadly?

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, I mean, I think that it's, I think that it's two things. So one, New York has kind of become a sponge for the blue haired, multi pronoun voter who lives somewhere in either the Northeast or the Midwest, who wants to come to a place where they're, they have a tribe and they've moved to Brooklyn and Manhattan. Right. 88 of all the new registered voters in the last year came out of just Manhattan and Brooklyn and overall statewide outside of Manhattan, you had immense losses for the Democratic Party. As far as registration goes, it kind of looks like Pennsylvania and New Jersey. What Mandani was able to do is one, generate a lot of excitement from Young people, which was legitimate. Right. Because the cost of living is very high and it's not just for 20 year olds, it's for 40 year olds who never got to buy a house. Like the dream was you come to New York, you make it, you make a lot of money, you buy a house, whatever. When my parents were 30, which was 30 years ago, are. Yeah, about 30 years ago they were. When they were 30, they bought a home in New York City in the outer boroughs for $200,000 on a, you know, very, very middle class, working middle class income. That dream, that house today is worth about a million dollars. Right. It's not attainable to the same degree in New York and there's a lot of reasons for that, but that is something, that is something that is real in New York City. So he hit on a very, very key issue. You know, a good campaign has a motto that is tangible, that is easy to understand. Build a wall, Medicare for all, freeze the rent. You can understand exactly what the politician is saying that they're going to do for you. And then also with Mandani, the reason that he won, which is very strange in the general election, was he built a coalition of like the purple hair, blue haired, multi gender people and also a lot of recent immigrants and a lot of Asians and whatnot in, in the primary. But in the, but while he lost the black vote and the Hispanic vote spectacularly in the primary in the general, everyone thought that Cuomo was going to be able to rely on the Bronx Hispanic vote, the Dominican vote and the black vote, especially the Caribbean immigrant black vote. And they completely abandoned him. They had voted for him in the primary, but they did not vote for him in the general. Had they stayed with him through the general, he would have beaten Mandani. That's the craziest thing is if you look at areas of south southeast Queens, of south of southern Bronx of southeast Brooklyn, Cuomo just won those areas incredibly lopsided. And then they just voted Democrat down the aisle, whoever was the registered Democrat and abandoned him. So I think that part of it was, I mean, Cuomo was a horrible candidate. I looked at his old campaign track record. Cuomo has never faced a serious challenge in any election ever. He never, he was bas handed the nomination for Attorney General. He had one little primary by a New York City official. He would never had a serious competition in the general. He was never primaried for governor when he first got in. And then his primary challenges, once he was an incumbent, was like Cynthia Nixon, who, you know, she makes yeah, she's. She. She's on. She's been in some good shows and movies and theater, but she's, you know, completely crazy. She's the most unlikable person on the planet. And then. And the general. It's in New York City, New York State. So it's still. I mean, his worst performance ever. He only. He won by points, so Cuomo really wasn't up for the challenge, and he. He shouldn't have won. And, you know, it's so funny, Lisa, People asked me before Mandani was a thing, should I run? And I was like, there's no way to be Cuomo. I talked a New York Yankee out of running for mayor because I was like, no one can be Cuomo. It's impossible. Because the air of invincibility was so thick on him. And we really didn't realize that the emperor had no clothes.

[Lisa Booth]

Well, and he obviously felt that because he didn't really put any work into the race either kind of. It seemed he felt like he was. You know, it's interesting because when you're talking about Cuomo and now, he's never really been challenged before. I also think about Gavin Newsom in the sense that, like, he really hasn't had, like, tough races. Right. And so if he were to get the nomination, does he end up just being, like another Beta o' Rourke and another Kamala Harris, where it's kind of like all talk and then they fall apart upon, like, scrutiny and, you know, actually getting pressed and.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Yeah, I mean, Gavin at least was a Nepo baby, like. Like Cuomo was. And, you know, I guess. I guess Gavin had to have the internal fight of marrying Kimberly Guilfoyle, so that maybe was his big struggle in life. But aside from that, no, he's never had a serious challenge.

[Lisa Booth]

Which it'll be interesting to see which direction the Dem. I mean, Democrats are going to have a huge primary field in 2028, 100%.

[Ryan Gradusky]

And it's really a question of, you know, how. You'll tell how the Democrats want to do it. If the Democrats stick to South Carolina being the first in the nation, it means they want to stop an aoc. Right, because black voters in primaries do not vote for progressives. It didn't happen in New York City, and last week, it didn't happen in 2020. It didn't happen in, you know, in most places, black voters overall vote for moderate candidates, with the exception, I guess, of Obama. But that was not because of his policies. That was because he was Black. In. In 20 if they start, and it started the 2028 election with South Carolina, it's just. It's a thwart off a AOC or anybody else. If they start in Iowa or New Hampshire or. Or Nevada or any of those other states, it's. It will give an opening to aoc. And I talked to a really smart Democrat consultant friend, and they said it's not a question of if a socialist will be the nominee, it's just a question of when.

[Lisa Booth]

Interesting. That's a good point about South Carolina, because, you know, Democrats have obviously used the system to shut Bernie Sanders out before. So how dedicated are they doing that to aoc, perhaps? That's interesting point. Well, and also, you know, I mean, Republicans, too. I mean, especially with Trump obviously on his way out. Like, there seems to be a pretty big divide in the Republican Party as well. So, I mean, we might go through that a little bit heading in to 2028. I mean, how much do you think we'll experience that on our side?

[Ryan Gradusky]

I mean, a primary against J.D. the presumptive nominee?

[Lisa Booth]

Yeah, I mean, like. Well, right now, even if you just follow, like, the online chatter, there's a lot of, like, particularly since Charlie Kirk's assassination, there just seems to be sort of a growing divide within the party. Speaking.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Here's what it is, is that there are. There are definitely gonna be chat. I mean, Mark Halpern's, like, there won't even be a challenge. There will definitely be a challenge to him. There will be people who will launch a primary against him. You know, there is a certain US Senator who has a weekly meeting about his run for president in 2028, and a Republican senator. And there is other Republicans. You know, the model was broken, really, in 2016, in the sense of you can run for president and you. There'll be no nothing. You cannot lose anything from running for president. That's why the clown car keeps getting bigger every election cycle, because you get to get a book deal, you get to travel across the country, you raise millions of dollars, you get a fundraising list. And if you're like Pete Buttigieg, a man who was like a, you know, a disgraced mayor whose own city hated him, you get to that Secretary of Transportation. The last person who ever lost anything by running for president was John Edwards, and it's because his affair was revealed. That was 20 years ago. You only make things better from running for president. And there's a lot of personalities in the conservative movement who are living off of the Trump economy. Right. They said they peddle bullshit Sorry, excuse my language, but they pedal nonsense about Trump. They say things like he can run for a third term. They sit there and make claims about him to be, to tell basically to give the illusion that they are leading a parade and leading his movement. And, and they are all sitting there and looking down the pipeline three years out and saying, how do I still make money without him in office? What do I do? And they are all. And they, and JD Is not Trump for many, many reasons. But they know that there's not going to be a JD Economy in the same way that there was a Trump economy. I don't call them grifters, but for people who, who are talking heads, let's just sit there and say, for lack of a better term. And they are. I would not doubt if one or two of them end up running for president themselves.

[Lisa Booth]

Yeah, it's a lot easier to fill up on the left, which makes things harder for those of us.

[Ryan Gradusky]

I mean, I mean, people fail up on the right. There are plenty of people who fail. I mean, I know people who have been fired from every job possible and they either work in the administration or they have huge multimillion dollar deals as personalities. And it makes me hair out. But I guess there's something likable about them to the right people and it matters. But politics is an industry where a lot of people fail up and it is what it is. But if they, but I would not doubt if there is a serious nomin, a challenge to JD and there'll be people who run that challenge on issues like AI, issues like Israel, issues like, you know, that they'll sit there and say that he's too weak on this or he's too close to Peter Thiel or, or whatever the case may be. And if they go into a debate, we'll see how that works itself out. But, but, yeah, but there'll be a, there'll be a challenge. It won't be the same as Democratic one, which is going to be a, you know, a bloodbath between, between, between the Democrats. And they'll probably be a push to see who is the furthest left, which is what got Kamala in trouble the first time is when she answered that stupid quiz saying I will give. I will give transgender surgeries by funded by taxpayers to illegal immigrants.

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[Lisa Booth]

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[Lisa Booth]

How strong do you think. I mean, JD did a really great job during the vice presidential debate. How strong of a candidate do you think he is?

[Ryan Gradusky]

I work for him. You know, I worked for him in 2022, so I'm a little partial.

[Lisa Booth]

I like him a lot.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Yeah, he's much stronger than people think that he is. He's very thoughtful and he really understands, I guess, the moment. But he's, he's very, very. He's. He would be an aggressive campaigner and I think that he will be able to appeal to a lot of voters. Remember, 2028 is the. Because the way the census works and because redistricting and what's what states are expected to lose seats versus gain them in the 2030. 2030 census. 2028 will be the last presidential year for at least a decade where the Midwest will matter right outside of Ohio. So if a Republican wins Nevada, Georgia, Florida, Texas and Arizona in 2032 and beyond the way that the calculations are working in North Carolina, rather, if they win those states, states they don't need, Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, that will be the. This will be the last election where the Midwest will matter as a critical state. Republicans can win the presidency without any of those states, so long as they keep North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, I guess. But it's a red state. Texas, Arizona and Nevada.

[Lisa Booth]

Yeah. Then before we go, how are you feeling about the midterms? And we still. The dust still hasn't settled on all the redistricting stuff across the country and, you know, looking at what the map's going to look like across the board. But, you know, how are you feeling about the midterms? If elections were held today?

[Ryan Gradusky]

North Carolina has a Democrats got a top nominee in North Carolina, Democrats are doing great in recruiting, so they have a top candidate against Susan Collins, a top can in North Carolina. And it's gonna be hard to win over Michigan and Georgia and New Hampshire. So, I mean, Republicans seem like they'll probably keep the Senate their favor to keep it unless it's a complete wave, which would be a disaster to have to win Iowa or Texas. As far as the House goes, it's tough. I mean, the good thing about the 20, the last election, last November in the state House races in Virginia, Republicans managed to keep all the seats that were Trump +4 or greater in the state House. So maybe they lost one, but I don't think they did. They kept all the other Trump seats, though, so there was not a bleed upwards like there would have been against winsome Sears. And that gives kind of hope that at least in the House there is like kind of a cap of how much, you know, we could expect to possibly lose or gain. And there are, you know, there's a dozen. There's a dozen Democrats who are in Trump districts, I guess because of redistricting. There's probably like nine that are still competitive that they need to go after. And we'll see if, after California and Virginia redistrict, what's left of the Republicans.

[Lisa Booth]

Yep. Well, we'll watch it. It is indeed a game with Ryan Graduski. Appreciate you making the time.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Absolutely. Thank you for having me.

[Lisa Booth]

Hey, that was Ryan Graduski, host of the Numbers Game podcast. Appreciate him making the time to come on the show. Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday where you can listen throughout the week. Also want to thank my producer, John Casio for putting the show together.

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