Podcast Summary: The Truth with Lisa Boothe

Episode Title: Post-Election Wake-Up Call: GOP Struggles, Democrat Momentum, and What’s Next for 2026
Release Date: November 6, 2025
Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (iHeartPodcasts)
Host: Lisa Boothe
Guest: Ryan Girdusky (Host, The Numbers Game podcast)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the fallout and implications from the most recent U.S. elections, exploring what the disappointing results mean for Republicans and how Democrats have built momentum heading into 2026. Lisa Boothe and political analyst Ryan Girdusky discuss turnout, messaging, and the structural and strategic hurdles facing the GOP. The conversation extends to broader themes: the challenges of motivating conservative voters, the rise of left-wing figures like Zoran Mamdani, primary dynamics for both parties, and what’s coming in 2026 and beyond.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Election Night Autopsy – Republican Struggles

• Turnout Issues Drove GOP Losses

  • In states like New Jersey and Virginia, GOP voter turnout lagged significantly behind Democrats.
    • New Jersey: 21% of voters were Republicans; 27% were Democrats.
    • Virginia: Close to 30% Democrats vs. 22% Republicans.
  • Trend is partly cyclical (“not something to lose your mind over”), but down-ballot races in red states bucked expectations and signaled deeper issues.
  • Quote (Ryan):
    “Part of it was... voter turnout which happens normally... But... in places like Mississippi, in Georgia, in Kansas ... people were voting for the Democrat for city council, voting for the Democrat for town supervisor just to sit there and stick it to Trump.” (04:48–06:00)

• Normal Cycles or a Warning Sign?

  • The swing from previous GOP wave years (2010, 2014) is not unique, but the inability to rally core Republican and independent voters is concerning heading into 2026.
  • Economic anxiety continues to hurt the GOP; many hoped Trump could reverse COVID-era inflation, but cost-of-living issues persist.
    • Quote (Ryan):
      “Inflation is down, but prices are high like they were before COVID... Either wages have to go up considerably or job growth has to happen that really hasn’t happened.” (07:10–07:45)

• Missed Opportunities for Voter Engagement

  • The GOP did not effectively test ways to raise voter enthusiasm in smaller, lower-stakes races that could have been used to refine turnout strategies.
    • Quote (Ryan): “These inconsequential races... should have been where they tested out how do we try to increase voter turnout among low propensity voters.” (10:55–11:28)

2. Deep Dive: Margins and Models (NJ & VA Races)

• Unexpectedly Wide Margins

  • Despite getting more votes than previous cycles, GOP candidates like Jack Cittarelli “still got smoked.”
    • Cittarelli received 70% of the Trump vote; his opponent, Mikey Sherrill, captured 81% of Kamala Harris’s. It was a question of intensity, not just numbers.
    • Quote (Lisa):
      “I thought Jack Cittarelli would at least come close. But he got smoked.” (08:39–09:06)

• Campaign Models Weren’t Enough

  • Strategies based on normal turnout projections faltered due to exceptional circumstances and anti-Trump sentiment.
    • “There are some things that are exterior that you cannot fix.” (09:06–10:54)

3. Looking Ahead: Republican Strategy for 2026 and Midterms

• Ballot Initiatives as a Turnout Tool

  • Following the Democratic success with abortion referenda, the GOP could use ballot measures—on English as official language, welfare reform for illegal immigrants, transgender sports, etc.—to mobilize their base.
    • Quote (Ryan):
      “Get ballot initiatives there to ... generate excitement around ... lower propensity Republican voter. This is what Bush did in ’04...” (15:37–16:48)

• Motivating Non-Traditional and Independent Conservatives

  • Many “Trump voters” are not registered Republicans; the key is developing messages and policies that resonate with both traditional conservatives and disgruntled independents.
    • “How do you turn over conservatives, Trump voters who are not registered Republicans, which is a lot of them right?” (07:55–08:10)

4. Democratic Momentum: The Zoran Mamdani Win in NYC

• Demographic and Messaging Shifts

  • Mandani’s victory reflects the influx of highly progressive younger voters in NYC but also successful coalition-building with immigrants and Asians.
  • Democrats lost registration outside of Manhattan and Brooklyn, signaling intense urban polarization.
  • Quote (Ryan):
    “New York has kind of become a sponge for the blue haired, multi pronoun voter... [Mandani] built a coalition of like the purple hair, blue haired, multi gender people and also a lot of recent immigrants and a lot of Asians...” (17:06–17:58)

• Moderate vs. Progressive Vote Splits

  • In NYC, Mandani lost Black and Hispanic votes in the primary but saw his opponent lose their support in the general, leading to upset.
    • Cuomo “wasn’t up for the challenge” and coasted on name recognition, a pattern that may repeat itself with other untested candidates (e.g., Gavin Newsom).
    • Quote (Ryan): “We really didn’t realize that the emperor had no clothes.” (21:27–22:32)

5. 2028 Presidential Primary Outlook

• Democratic Primary Maneuvers

  • The DNC’s decision to prioritize South Carolina is meant to block progressive insurgents like AOC, as Black voters generally support moderates in primaries.
  • Quote (Ryan):
    “If the Democrats stick to South Carolina being first... it means they want to stop an AOC. ... I talked to a really smart Democrat consultant, and they said it’s not a question of if a socialist will be the nominee, it’s just a question of when.” (21:50–22:43)

• Republican Primary Landscape

  • Expect a large GOP field post-Trump, with incentives (“failing up”) for candidates to run and increase their profiles—even if they lack a path to victory.
  • “There are a lot of personalities in the conservative movement who are living off of the Trump economy. ... They are all sitting there ... [wondering] how do I still make money without him in office?” (23:30–25:35)

6. JD Vance as a 2028 Candidate

• Strengths and Electoral Implications
  • Girdusky, who worked for JD Vance, calls him “much stronger than people think,” “very thoughtful,” and predicts he’ll run an aggressive campaign able to appeal to diverse voters.
    • The 2028 cycle will be the Midwest’s last as presidential kingmakers, as demographic and redistricting trends shift the focus to the Sunbelt and South.
    • Quote (Ryan):
      “He would be an aggressive campaigner and I think ... appeal to a lot of voters. 2028 will be the last presidential year for at least a decade where the Midwest will matter.” (30:59–32:11)

7. Midterm Outlook and Redistricting

• Senate:
  • Democrats are recruiting “top” candidates in key states (e.g., North Carolina); Republicans have an edge unless a blue wave happens.
• House:
  • The GOP held all Trump+4 or greater state house seats in Virginia, capping potential Democratic gains. But “the dust still hasn’t settled” on maps and the playing field is volatile.
  • Quote (Ryan):
    “There’s probably like nine [Democratic seats] that are still competitive... after California and Virginia redistrict, what’s left of the Republicans.” (32:30–33:46)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Democratic turnout:
  “[People were] voting for the Democrat ... just to stick it to Trump.” — Ryan Girdusky (06:00)

• On GOP messaging:
  “How do you get low propensity Republicans to show up because we’re not super great at when Trump’s not on the ballot.” — Ryan Girdusky (07:38)

• On NYC’s political trends:
  “New York has kind of become a sponge for the blue haired, multi pronoun voter...” — Ryan Girdusky (17:07)

• On campaign models failing:
  “Cittarelli built a model for a normal election year. He would have won any governor’s election going back since 1973. He just wasn’t in a normal election cycle.” — Ryan Girdusky (09:40)

• On 2028 primaries:
  “It’s not a question of if a socialist will be the nominee [for Democrats], it’s just a question of when.” — Ryan Girdusky (22:42)

• On politics as a profession:
  “Politics is an industry where a lot of people fail up and it is what it is.” — Ryan Girdusky (25:40)

Segment Timestamps

• Opening election analysis & turnout figures: (03:15–08:39)
• Margin discussion & campaign model breakdown: (08:39–11:28)
• Ballot initiatives & turnout in 2026: (15:26–16:48)
• NYC, Zoran Mamdani & progressive coalitions: (16:48–21:27)
• 2028 primaries (Dem/Rep) and party divides: (21:27–26:52)
• JD Vance as a candidate & electoral trends: (30:52–32:11)
• Midterms and redistricting landscape: (32:11–33:46)

Tone & Style Observations

• Lisa Boothe’s approach: Direct, inquisitive, and focused on the practical outcomes and “what’s next” for the GOP.
• Ryan Girdusky’s style: Analytical, occasionally sardonic, candid with inside-baseball political anecdotes and strategic takes.

Summary for Non-Listeners

This episode serves as a razor-sharp post-mortem on the most recent election cycle, breaking down why GOP losses aren’t merely cyclical but signal deeper problems with turnout and messaging—especially with Trump off the ballot. Guest Ryan Girdusky brings data, campaign strategy, and a realistic (sometimes biting) take on what’s happening both in party politics and demographic trends. Essential listening for understanding how both parties are plotting their futures and the structural currents that could shape American politics into 2026, 2028, and beyond.