Podcast Summary: The Truth with Lisa Boothe

Episode Title: Red Wave Rising: How Trump’s Legacy is Reshaping the Midterms
Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (iHeartPodcasts)
Date: August 26, 2025
Host: Lisa Boothe
Guest: Jessica Anderson, President, Sentinel Action Fund

Overview

This episode explores the rapidly changing U.S. political landscape in the aftermath of the 2024 elections, focusing on Donald Trump’s lasting influence on the Republican Party and what it means for the upcoming 2026 midterms. Lisa Boothe and Jessica Anderson break down major voter shifts, the role of Trump’s populist coalition, effective GOP organizing strategies, redistricting battles, and the stakes in key races. The conversation combines data analysis, campaign strategy insights, and pointed commentary on party dynamics—all aimed at understanding if a long-promised "red wave" is materializing.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Legacy and GOP’s Ground Game

Timestamps: [01:45]–[05:21]

• Electoral Success Reflected:
  Lisa Boothe acknowledges Trump's victory and the GOP gaining control in Washington, crediting effective early voting and mail-in ballot strategies led by groups like the Sentinel Action Fund.
• Myth-Busting Early Voting:
  Jessica Anderson recalls pushing back against the narrative that GOP early voting was "cannibalizing" Election Day votes. “We’ve proven that absentee ballot, early vote can work and we’ve proven that low propensity first time Trump voters are the special sauce of the Republican Party right now.” [03:42]
• Organizational Shift:
  Anderson details how the GOP narrowed Democratic advantages by:
  • Registering new voters, especially "low-propensity, first-time Trump voters,"
  • Building a durable infrastructure to sustain year-round engagement,
  • Matching (and potentially exceeding) Democratic ground game efforts, especially unions.

“Because of the Trump effect, you have groups like Sentinel Action Fund that are able to go in there and do that same long-term work.” — Jessica Anderson [05:21]

2. The Massive Voter Registration Shift

Timestamps: [04:17]–[08:04]

• NYT Report on Party Shifts:
  Discussion centers on a New York Times report documenting a net swing of 4.5 million voters toward the GOP since 2020 across more than 30 states.
• Why the Shift?
  • Democrats are losing ground due to policy discontent, particularly "post-Covid movement" from blue to red states (e.g., California to Texas).
  • Anderson: “You have major chunks of Democrats say we’re fed up with the policies of Gavin Newsom, we’re going to move to a red state... and then re-register there either as an independent or as a Republican.” [05:21]
  • Simultaneously, Republicans invested in robust voter registration and sustained outreach.

3. Trump’s Coalition: GOP or Trump Voters?

Timestamps: [08:04]–[12:25]

• Longevity of Trump’s Base:
  Boothe asks whether the new GOP coalition will last beyond Trump’s presidency.
• Two-Part Republican Strategy:
  Anderson’s guidance:
  • Tell Success Stories: Emphasize tangible impacts of Trump’s policy “wins” (especially immigration and economy).
  • Frame Opponents: Portray Democrats as “radical and anti-Trump,” citing examples like socialist candidates and perceived out-of-touch stances.

“Trump has a unique magnetism… but while his personality is not on the midterm ballots, the successes of his policies are.” — Jessica Anderson [08:37]

• Effective Messaging:
  Congressional and Senate GOP candidates should “treat it like a year-round campaign” by personalizing and delivering clear, economic benefits to voters.

4. The “Big Beautiful Bill” and GOP Messaging Challenges

Timestamps: [16:09]–[17:29]

• Contentious Legislative Win:
  Boothe notes, “Largely the polling has been negative about the bill overall,” despite popular elements like “no tax on tips.” [16:09]
• Anderson’s Advice:
  To overcome skepticism, focus on real-life impact—highlight dollar amounts saved via tax cuts and deregulation, making the bill’s effects concrete for average Americans.

“The proof is in the detail and to get past kind of the broad strokes of the bill and talk about the specifics, that’s where the success is going to come.” — Jessica Anderson [16:36]

5. Bellwether Gubernatorial Races – New Jersey & Virginia

Timestamps: [17:29]–[19:52]

• Can Governor’s Races Predict the Midterms?
  Boothe and Anderson debate whether upcoming races signal broader trends:
  • Anderson is skeptical, noting governors aren’t direct partners in executing federal Trump policies.
  • Still, these elections will test whether new GOP turnout methods work without Trump himself on the ballot.

6. The Redistricting “Arms Race”

Timestamps: [19:52]–[25:20]

• Battle Over District Lines:
  Redistricting in Texas, California, Florida, and Ohio could shift dozens of Congressional seats.
• Democratic "Abuse" of the System:
  Anderson criticizes Democratic use of gerrymandering, citing Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and North Carolina.
• Census and Redistricting:
  The link between census counts, border policy, and district lines is highlighted, with Anderson referencing recent Democratic admissions about the value of migrant populations for growing districts.

“Democrats can’t win elections, honestly. So they’re manipulating the system. Hence why they fight so hard against the census just counting legal migrants and why they’re so opposed to a strong border.” — Jessica Anderson [21:09]

7. Fundraising, Polls, and Prognoses for the Midterms

Timestamps: [25:20]–[28:02]

• Contradictory Data:
  The hosts point out:
  • Democratic approval ratings are at historic lows.
  • GOP outpaces Democrats in fundraising.
  • Yet, generic ballot polls still have Democrats slightly ahead.
• Anderson’s Synthesis:
  While history says the out-party rebounds in the midterms, current trends—fundraising, voter registration, policy advantage—favor the GOP if organizational momentum is maintained.

“These headwinds actually flip the narrative that the 2026 midterms are going to be a rebuke of the Trump administration. I think it’s going to be an embrace...” — Jessica Anderson [25:20]

8. House Math & Recruitment

Timestamps: [31:50]–[34:36]

• House Map Favors the GOP:
  Boothe and Anderson discuss the disproportionate number of Democratic-held districts that Trump won versus Republican-held seats carried by Harris.
  • Anderson identifies vulnerable Dems: Jared Golden (Maine), Henry Cuellar (Texas), Susie Lee (Nevada), and more.
• Keys to Victory:
  Recruit "common sense" Republicans for these swing districts.
• Complacency Warning:
  “Complacency is the devil in politics.” [34:36]
  • Voter engagement and turnout remain non-negotiable for GOP hopes.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Early Voting Strategies:
  “We’ve proven that absentee ballot, early vote can work and we’ve proven that low propensity first time Trump voters are the special sauce of the Republican Party right now.” — Jessica Anderson [03:42]

• On the NYT Voter Shift Report:
  “It was just comical to me that the New York Times of all places showed these numbers. But they’re real…” — Jessica Anderson [05:21]

• On Trump’s Coalition:
  “Trump has a unique magnetism… but while his personality is not on the midterm ballots, the successes of his policies are.” — Jessica Anderson [08:37]

• On Messaging the Big Beautiful Bill:
  “The proof is in the detail and to get past the broad strokes of the bill and talk about the specifics, that’s where success is going to come.” — Jessica Anderson [16:36]

• On Democrats and Redistricting:
  “Democrats can’t win elections, honestly. So they’re manipulating the system.” — Jessica Anderson [21:09]

• On GOP Opportunity in the House:
  “These are not household Democratic names that you think are coming across the aisle… They’re entrenched… That gives a huge opportunity for the House to run a common sense Republican.” — Jessica Anderson [32:36]

• On Complacency:
  “Complacency is the devil in politics. So like despite, you know, obviously things looking good for Republicans, you know, voters need to turn out and so, like, all of that is moot if, you know, people don’t show up to vote or don’t send in ballots.” — Lisa Boothe [34:36]

Important Segment Timestamps

• [01:45] Lisa Boothe introduces Jessica Anderson and outlines post-2024 landscape
• [03:42] Anderson discusses early voting and GOP base-building
• [05:21] Voter registration swings and causes
• [08:04] Will Trump’s coalition last?
• [16:09] Messaging challenges around Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill"
• [17:29] Bellwether gubernatorial races
• [19:52] Redistricting battles in TX, CA, FL, and OH
• [25:20] Fundraising, polling analysis, and historical context
• [31:50] House math: districts, recruitment, and prospects
• [34:36] The perils of complacency and closing thoughts

Tone and Style

• The discussion balances data analysis and tactical advice with partisan, often humorous critiques of the opposition.
• Both speakers are energetic and confident, with Anderson providing campaign strategist expertise and Boothe threading in current event relevance.

Final Takeaways

• The Republican Party, bolstered by Trump’s electoral strategy and lasting policy agenda, finds itself in a position of unprecedented organizational and demographic advantage heading into the 2026 midterms.
• The true test will be whether new coalitions can translate organizing and registration advances into sustainable, off-cycle electoral wins—especially with Trump off the ballot.
• Redistricting battles, fundraising leads, and persistent Democratic struggles suggest optimism for the right, but both speakers stress that vigilance and voter turnout are decisive.