The Truth with Lisa Boothe: The Data Behind GOP Momentum in New Jersey and Virginia with Robert Cahaly

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Truth with Lisa Boothe — The Data Behind GOP Momentum in New Jersey and Virginia

Episode Date: October 21, 2025
Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (iHeartPodcasts)
Host: Lisa Boothe
Guest: Robert Cahaly, Chief Pollster, Trafalgar Group

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Episode Overview

This episode features a deep dive into the political climate and polling data surrounding the hotly contested gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, featuring Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group. Lisa Boothe and Cahaly examine why these states are so competitive, what the numbers reveal, the significance of recent polling shifts, and whether these races serve as national political bellwethers for the 2026 midterms. They also discuss the implications of the ongoing government shutdown, President Trump’s approval ratings, and structural party issues that could impact the coming elections. The tone is analytical, candid, and at times humorous, with Booth guiding a fast-paced conversation and Cahaly providing pollster insights with a touch of Southern charm.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. State of the Virginia and New Jersey Gubernatorial Races

• Polling Landscape ([04:34]–[07:37]):

  • Cahaly describes the races in both states as “very, very tight,” with Trafalgar data showing a near tie in New Jersey and a three-point race in Virginia.
  • The New Jersey contest is impacted by questions about the Democratic candidate’s Naval Academy record and tax issues, fueling voter skepticism.
  • Trafalgar and Emerson are cited as the most accurate pollsters ("most of the other polling... tend to get this thing wrong").
  • Quote: “We’ve got that thing right now at a one point race... This is a very close race. Not saying the Republicans are going to win, but I think it’s one that with just a little bit of tweak either way, this one could go to Republicans.” – Robert Cahaly [06:46]

• Challenges in Virginia ([08:29]–[12:02]):

  • The GOP faces hurdles in selling their candidate; Winsome Sears (R) lags in messaging compared to Glenn Youngkin’s successful 2021 campaign.
  • Older voters are more responsive to Sears, but the critical 45–65 demographic is harder to reach via traditional methods.
  • Cahaly critiques Sears' campaign for not forcefully distancing herself from unpopular Democratic figures or leaning harder into key conservative issues.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “It ought to be an easy sales pitch if this lady says she’s an independent... but somehow she’s unwilling to do this with Jones... I just don’t think that Sears is pushing this hard enough.” — Robert Cahaly [09:23]
  • “That 45–65 crowd is a harder crowd to put a message in front of... I just don’t see them selling it quite the way they need to there.” — Robert Cahaly [10:36]

2. Bellwether Status & Broader Political Implications

• Are These Races National Bellwethers? ([18:32]–[21:16]):

  • Historically, New Jersey and Virginia have been seen as bellwethers in off-year elections, but their current political makeup (solidly blue in recent presidential elections) complicates that narrative.
  • Cahaly: “New Jersey? I think that tells people a lot if a Democrat wins... [But] Virginia may be more purple, but purple outside of Trump because Trump is such an anti-establishment, anti-swamp, anti-DC insider candidate that he will never do as well in Virginia than someone who is not seen that way.” [19:22]
  • Glenn Youngkin is praised as a uniquely strong candidate: “He’s one of the best candidates... run for governor anywhere.” [21:05]

• Impact of Trump as a Candidate ([22:37]–[23:23]):

  • Trump’s anti-establishment stance resonates in some areas but makes Virginia tough terrain for Republicans in statewide races.
  • Cahaly: “If I were Trump, I’d say being against the Swamp is worth losing Virginia.”

3. Scandal and Voter Shifts

• Attorney General Race in Virginia ([23:23]–[26:25]):
  • The Democrat candidate Jay Jones’s controversial comments have shifted the race, especially among “high information voters” in Northern Virginia.
  • Cahaly: “That’s not okay... even the most middle of the road person... can say, ‘Well, no, but I’m not for that.’” [24:52]

4. Government Shutdown: Who Cares and Why?

• Voter Impact and Salience ([26:25]–[29:52]):
  • The shutdown primarily affects federal workers (significant in Virginia), but for most Americans, only direct impacts (like interrupted travel) would change opinions.
  • People who miss government checks are more likely to respond at the ballot box, but they’re not typical swing voters, says Cahaly.
  • Notable anecdote: The 2021 Georgia runoffs centered on whether voters would get $1400 stimulus checks.
  • Quote: “People vote their pocketbook. So the shutdown, the people whose pocketbook it hurts, are going to be the ones most move. But they’re also not a lot of swing voters that fall in that category.” [29:13]

5. Trump’s Approval Ratings and Economic Outlook

• Polling Credibility and Economic Drivers ([29:52]–[34:54]):
  • Trafalgar and a select few pollsters are deemed reliable by Cahaly; current polls show Trump’s approval is “pretty close to even.”
  • The major factor for the midterms will be the economy – jobs, interest rates, and inflation supersede cultural or personality issues.
  • Cahaly: “The midterms are going to be about the economy... if the economy is humming... I think the Republicans will be in great shape. But if the economy is bad, then I think they won’t be.”
  • The influence of abortion policy was fleeting post-Dobbs; Cahaly contends that by 2024, the issue had faded and the economy returned to the fore.

6. Down-Ballot and Structural GOP Challenges

• Senate and House Landscape ([38:46]–[41:13]):
  • Discussion of redistricting and the fact that Democrats "gerrymander more than Republicans."
  • Cahaly criticizes GOP for structural failures in states where Trump won but GOP Senate candidates lost, blaming lack of ground game and organization, not candidate quality.
  • Quote: "Republicans had four very good candidates. Don’t let anybody blame that on those candidates. Now that was a structure problem and there’s no way around that." [39:12]

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Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• Lisa Booth, referring to candidate vulnerability:
  "They say snitches end up in ditches, right? So maybe in New Jersey...” [07:37]

• Cahaly’s take on polling errors:
  “I mean, when I look at some of these polls... showing margins of 5 and 7... I just don’t know what they’re doing. I really don’t.” [08:29]

• On economic determinism in American elections:
  "It always comes down to the economy.” – Lisa Booth [34:32]

• Cahaly’s blunt assessment of campaign structure:
  "Republicans still have a lot of spending that doesn’t win elections and makes people rich.” [40:34]

• Cahaly on voter sophistication in Virginia:
  “Virginia is a place where the most liberal element or the most middle of the road element are also what you would say as high information voters... they’re going to know all the details of that scandal in a way that some other states might not.” [24:15]

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• 03:00 — Introduction to Robert Cahaly and overview of the races
• 04:34 — Cahaly’s polling insights on New Jersey and Virginia tightness
• 07:37 — Candidate vulnerabilities and polling discrepancies
• 10:36 — Challenges reaching the 45–65 voter demographic
• 12:02 — Unique characteristics of Virginia's government-worker electorate
• 18:32 — Are these races true bellwethers for the national mood?
• 19:22 — Trump's presence and candidate strength in state races
• 23:23 — Impact of Jay Jones’s comments on Attorney General race
• 26:25 — Voter attitudes toward the government shutdown
• 29:52 — Reliability of polling, Trump’s approval, and what drives the midterms
• 38:46 — Redistricting, down-ballot ballots, and GOP party structure critiques

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The Takeaway

This episode underscores just how fiercely competitive the 2025 off-year races are in New Jersey and Virginia, heightening their perceived significance for the GOP’s prospects in the 2026 midterms. Robert Cahaly provides a nuanced, numbers-driven analysis of why Republicans are closing the gap, the pitfalls of traditional polling, and the unpredictability of races shaped by local issues, candidate quality, and national dynamics. But throughout, the constant refrain remains: ultimately, it’s the economy that will decide the future — not just of these races, but of the national political landscape.

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Transcript

[Lisa Booth]

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[Robert Kahali]

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[Lisa Booth]

Lisa Booth where we try to get to heart of the issues that matter to you. Today we're talking to Robert Kahali. He's the chief pollster of the Trafalgar Group. You know him, you've seen him on Fox, you've had him here on the podcast. But we're going to dig in to these big off year elections, these two gubernatorial races that you've been hearing about that we've been following in New Jersey and in Virginia. So Trafalgar basically has these races as a neck and neck contest. Now a lot of people are talking about these races that they're bellwethers for what's to come next November up the upcoming midterm elections. So are they. We'll talk to Robert about that. We'll ask him what he thinks. We'll also talk to them about why these races are tightening, what's going on in those states. Also, we're just going to talk about the upcoming midterms as well. What do you, what do we know now? Where do things stand in this political environment? What are President Trump's approval ratings look like as well? Also, you know, as we continue to head down this road of a government shutdown, do you care? How much do Americans care? We'll get Robert's take on all of this and more. So stay tuned for Robert Kalhali, the Trafalgar Group. Well, Robert, it's great to have you back on the podcast. I'm really interested. You've had a couple of interesting polls out recently on New Jersey and Virginia. So I, I'm very interested in getting your take on the political environment today and kind of where everything stands. So I appreciate you making the time.

[Robert Kahali]

Yeah, well, you know, it's just first of all just always good to be on your show. I think a lot of the, the listeners, not only the quantity but the quality of people who listen to your show. I, the people that I hear from after I've been on your show let me know a lot about the type of listeners you have and you really do have a, a very in tuned audience that I feel like a lot of decision makers are among them.

[Lisa Booth]

Well, it's very kind. So I appreciate you saying that.

[Robert Kahali]

Thank you well, it's just, it's true. So I don't know what to say. But what I will tell you is Virginia. It is a tale of two of two different states when it comes to these two races for both governor and the other state wives in Virginia. So what we're seeing right now is we're seeing a very, very tight race for governor. We sit, we've got this thing between one and two points. It's just, it's very, very tight. And in Virginia, excuse me, in New Jersey. And you know, it really is going to depend a little, a good bit on get out the boat and how well they mobilize. But there are a lot of upset people, especially the tax issue. And there's, you know, there's still a lot of questions about the fact that, you know, the Democratic candidate, she just, she's not given enough information about where she is on not releasing her record from the Naval Academy. I mean, it's just there's a lot of questions as to why she didn't walk and what she did or didn't do. And you know, if it really is the truth that she just didn't want to rat on other people. I mean, if there's any state that might respect that, it might be New Jersey. Not sure what, I just offended a lot of people. But, but the fact is, but if that's all it is, then, you know, she won't release the documents that could, that could back that story up. And so that's, that's a real question there. But you know, we've got that thing right now at a one point race. I've seen some other polling that has it much wider. But frankly, most of the other polling that hasn't much water are polls that tend to get this thing wrong. We have the number one poll in New Jersey and Virginia and 2021. And when I look at it, I mean, you know, the other place that, I mean of all the other polls out there, the ones that I thought were really good in New Jersey is Emerson and Emerson had it tied. So I think there is, this is a very close race. Not saying the Republicans are going to win, but I think it's one that with just a little bit of tweak either way, this one could go to Republicans.

[Lisa Booth]

Now they say snitches can or snitches end up in ditches. Right. So maybe in New Jersey, but, but you know, but she's also, but there's also been like a few missteps with her. Like she had that really Horrible interview with Charlemagne the God and not being able to answer where all this money's come, you know. Right. Like, there just seems to be like her inability to kind of explain things. To your point, you had mentioned 2021, you know, Phil Murphy at the time against Cittarelli was favored to win by 77.8 points in their broker politics average, but only ended up beating Jack Torelli by 2.8 points. So to your point, like, do you think.

[Robert Kahali]

I think I had it at three in that one.

[Lisa Booth]

So you were accurate. So like, should you think that this is going to be, you know, in a couple of weeks here? I guess not even probably less than that. We're going to find out. Is this going to be another big polling mess from people, do you think?

[Robert Kahali]

I mean, when I, when I look at some of, some of these polls that are coming out showing margins of 5 and 7 and 7, I'm just like, I don't know what they're doing. I really don't know what they're doing. I just, I think it's going to be much closer. I mean, you know, with us and Emerson, it's a four point gap and I think, I think it, that's Real Clear is going to do a better job this time just because Real Clear is only as good as the polls that it has in it. So I mean, you know, you can't, you can't blame them, right. Him on the, when the, when the, when the polls aren't so great. But no, I think that, that is definitely one that I think could be a polling miss. I think it's going to be closer than a lot of these polls out there right now. As we move to Virginia, though, Virginia, our closest one is we have at a three. And you know, it is what's, what's frustrating, I think as you look at it, I guess from a Republican standpoint is that, you know, you've got this plus three for the, for Spangenberg and then all of a sudden when you go to attorney general, you know, we've got a plus five from Yaris versus Jones. So there's a problem in Seer selling this thing. It is like she's not. It ought to be an easy sales pitch if this lady says she's an independent and that, you know, she's just not about party. She's, that's your whole legislative record. And the reason she has survived in years when Republicans won is because she's always sold herself as kind of a middle of the road Democrat who didn't Mind stepping away from party. I mean, even when it came time to criticize Northam, she. She was first in line, but somehow she's unwilling to do this with Jones, unwilling to completely disavow. And I just don't think that Sears is pushing this hard enough because what we've seen is the crowd that moved away from the Democrat nominee and moved towards Sears was the over 65. But what I'm not seeing yet is that same movement with the 45 to 65. And frankly, that's a group that you are not going to get with traditional, with traditional TV ads, like people watching TV and that kind of stuff versus people that are unplugged, that are more digital. That 45, 65 crowd is a harder crowd to put a message in front of. And I just don't see them selling it quite the way they need to there. Because member is really in a good position if she can, if she could take this issue and move beyond it, like saying, all right, I'm tired of talking about the attorney general and just move on from that. And the other question is, does who pays the price for all the shutdown stuff? I mean, because a lot of these people are the ones who aren't getting paychecks.

[Lisa Booth]

Yeah, there's a lot of federal workers in Virginia right now.

[Robert Kahali]

Don't get wrong. These are federal workers who know more than most people. And so who they choose to blame this shutdown on might be a more informed decision than you would expect it to be in some other years. I mean, these people know exactly what's going on. And I mean, you know, if you say cr, they know what that means. Average American don't know what CR means, but they do. And so the fact that Schumer's never voted against the cr, Benny has cr now he's against one. When they've got a clean one, they might understand that. But it really is going to depend on how that is sold. And again, the tiptoeing around Trump, because what we saw the last time was Youngkin did an incredible job of leveraging Trump where he made such a difference in the southern and western part of Virginia without paying the price in northern Virginia with the people who were DC Insider who didn't like him. Now, is she talented enough to do that? Is her team talented enough to do that? I don't know. I do know that I have not seen the level of campaign that Young can put out there. I haven't seen her exercise campaign like that. And I think that that is something that is incredibly important and she needs to do it. And frankly, I mean, if it were me, I would be talking about the thing with Jones and about the transgender bathroom stuff and about parents rights in schools. I mean I would just be hammering on those things. But this idea of she can't be independent, she can't be courageous if she won't simp. Please say I'm not backing this guy anymore.

[Lisa Booth]

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[Lisa Booth]

Ah, come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.

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[Lisa Booth]

So we're talking about two of the big gubernatorial races this upcoming November in Virginia between Abigail Spamberger and the lieutenant governor Winsome Sears. And then in New Jersey you've got Jack Ciarelli running against Representative Mikey Sherrill. You know, looking at these two states, do you think it's harder in Virginia because you know, Republicans obviously have an incumbent governor who's term limited there, Glenn Youngkin versus in New Jersey where you know, people are sort of sick and tired of Phil Murphy who's on his way out like they want change. Do you think it's it's easier for like Jack Torelli maybe has like a clear path considering he would be the change candidate in the state there in New Jersey.

[Robert Kahali]

I'm heard it. Let me say it this way. Looking at these two states six months out, I would have said Virginia is the easier lift. But campaigns and candidates matter and today I'd rather be in New Jersey than Virginia.

[Lisa Booth]

Interesting. You know, are these two states, you know obviously a lot of people are saying that these are bellwether states. I know historically that's kind of how we've looked at them in these off year elections before midterms to try to get an idea what the upcoming midterm elections will look like. But you know, if you go back, you look at the 2024 election, you know, President Trump, despite sweeping all seven swing states and winning the popular vote, did lose both New Jersey and Virginia by almost 6%. Now that's a considerable drop from where Joe Biden, you know, where he was polling and where he won in 2020. But still like are these bellwether races? Can you call them that given the fact that, you know, both these states appear pretty blue or how would you characterize them? And are these bellwethers for Republican wins?

[Robert Kahali]

New Jersey? I think that tells people a lot if a Democrat wins in Virginia or Republican wins. I don't, I think speaks to Virginia may be more purple, but purple outside of Trump because Trump is such an anti establishment, anti swamp, anti DC insider candidate that he will never do as well in Virginia than someone who is not seen that way. It's like Trump has taken on the swamp and understands that when you take home the swamp, then you're not going to get the swamp vote. But you know, someone is seen as a less MAGA or maga like might very well be able to carry a state like Virginia and probably easier than a Republican could carry New Jersey. However, if New Jersey were to elect Republican and then like what they saw, like say Chitterelli really made a big difference and people saw an immediate, you know, whether it was something to do with the tax or something like just an immediate turnaround, then, then I think that they could both be competitive states. But I would say Glenn Youngkin has proven that outside of an anti swamp candidate and, and not, not that Glenn Youngster is pro swamp, but I mean he's not crusading against the swamp.

[Lisa Booth]

He's also a really good candidate. Right.

[Robert Kahali]

Like I, I think, you know, there is no. Yeah, he's one of the best candidates. He's been run for governor anywhere.

[Lisa Booth]

Yeah. Like with respect to win some Sears like Glenn Youngkin's just on another level. Right.

[Robert Kahali]

So it's like yeah, yeah, she's, she's not a Glenn Youngkin. I mean they're just, you know, there's, there's no question and, and she doesn't have everything that, that I can see and the stories I hear, our campaign isn't on the same level as Glenn Youngkin and it, it's just, there's just a level of doing things that, that Glenn Youngkin just the way that his campaign operated. Now I do hear that Sears has a first class get out the Vote team. But in the end, getting out the vote, all that depends on whether the candidate has sold it. And at this point, I don't think that she's the point where she sold it enough to get over the hump. Now she's got a little more time to sell it and she definitely got it tight when a lot of people are voting early. But there's gonna be, there's gonna be a good number of people who are gonna vote in the next few weeks and, you know, we're gonna see where, where she has been.

[Lisa Booth]

I used to live in Virginia. I grew up, we born and raised in Virginia and used to live in Northern Virginia. And it's definitely, it's very liberal. The state seems to be trending more blue because it used to have some purple elements, if I remember correctly. And now it just kind of seems like it's, you know, a little bit more of a blue state.

[Robert Kahali]

But we'll see because again, all we have to look at in presidential is, is three elections with the ultimate anti Swamp candidate.

[Lisa Booth]

That's a good point.

[Robert Kahali]

I mean, that's all our recent election results we got to look at. So, you know, in 2028, if, if we have had somebody that was, you know, again, Trump lighter or even somebody who was seen as, you know, much more of an establishment type Republican, I'm not so sure it wouldn't move back into purple category. And I guess if I were Trump, I'd say being against the Swamp is worth losing Virginia. And I think that's a smart thing to say. But the next candidate might not feel that way.

[Lisa Booth]

You look at Jay Jones, the Democrat candidate for Attorney General in Virginia, obviously he's on record wishing for the death of a political opponent, Republican politician in the state as well as his children. I mean, it's insane. But like that scene, you know, that race you had mentioned where Miaris is now that he's up in that race, the Republican candidate who's the, you know, sitting Attorney general right now, I guess that that just totally changed the game. And I mean, that even changed it where we'll see if it impacts the top of the ticket with the gubernatorial race. But I mean, that race has just shifted. I guess that's a good sign, should make us all feel better that even in, you know, a seemingly blue state like Virginia, that those words would matter. Right? But talk about the shift in the race since those comments surfaced.

[Robert Kahali]

I mean, it's just, it just again, Virginia is a place where the most liberal element or even the most middle of the Road element are also what you would say as high information voters. So that is going to completely permeate high information voters. They're going to know all the details of that scandal in a way that some other states might not. There's still people, believe it or not, people who make decisions in America really don't know everything that's going on. But Virginia is not a place like that, especially northern Virginia. So that's a lot of where we saw the shift. It's like, that's not okay. And those folks, I mean, they just, they hear that and it just, it is, it's just kind of, I mean, you know, the old expression of too soon. It is far too soon to be making jokes like that. It's just too soon. And it really is kind of distasteful. And so I, I think that, I think that it doesn't surprise me that that moved the race so much. It's also. There just becomes almost a bandwagon effect of people just like, well, you know how all the time people are looking to kind of establish themselves, their, their society, you know, their social status is like, they took this stand and that stand. You know, this is a place somebody who kind of leans to the left can say, but I'm not for that. You know, this is where they place that little marker. But I'm not for that. And so that's why this doesn't surprise me so much because even the most middle of the road person who may be certainly lean Democrat, who probably would have voted Democrat for attorney general beforehand can say, well, no, but I'm, but I'm not for that.

[Lisa Booth]

And then that, and that gives us all comfort because it's been a little worrisome with some of that. So, you know, you look at this shutdown, I think it's the third longest shutdown to date. We'll see how much longer it goes on for. Do Americans care? Like where. I mean, obviously we're talking about the Virginia gubernatorial race. They're more plugged in because you have a lot of federal workers who are directly impacted by it. So they, you know, they're, they have kind of forced to pay attention to it. Right. But for like the rest of Americans, like, how much do they care? Like, does this impact the political environment or like kind of. How do you see this as a pollster?

[Robert Kahali]

Well, I think that the one place we'll start to see people who will care is if it really starts to be not just a little impact, but a significant impact on, on plane travel, both with the TSA and the, and with the air traffic controllers. So I think that's a place where people interact with federal government. And then the fact that the military is getting paid and that they're funding some, some other things, I think Wick was being funded. The fact that some of that's happening in the court may shoot it all down, but the, nobody's going to go back and ask for the money back for people who got money. So, you know, it really, it really depends on your interaction. And I would tell you that most of the people who would be most angry about a government shutdown are going to be people who was expecting a check who didn't get it. And a lot of them aren't necessarily people who are swing voters. I mean, that, that is, that is in essence, part of the problem with. But out there is that there's so many people who are so dependent. I've seen this year after year after year, people campaigning on these people are going to cut off the checks coming to you. And there's a segment of the population who, when you say you're getting a check from the government, it'll be less or you won't get it. If this party wins, we'll vote on that check we even saw. And I don't care what anybody who wasn't there tells you. In 2021, those two runoffs in Georgia, those weren't about Trump. Those were about one simple thing. Mitch McConnell had said, no more money, just the $700 checks or the $600 checks. And Schumer had said, they'll get 1400 more if my two senators win. And that is what people ran on. They literally, they were truck driving on Georgia. Get your extra $1,400. Elect these two a Republican runoff that was on the ballot that day. It wasn't. Republicans didn't turn out. If you made Republicans choose between fourteen hundred dollars in their pocket and vote a Republican. And my rule has always been in a democracy, you should never send out checks before an election. But if you break rule number one, rule number two is you got to be for the big number. And they weren't. Mitch McConnell said, There's no discussion. These two win, it ain't going to happen. And so again, people vote their pocketbook. So the shutdown, the people whose pocketbook it hurts, are going to be the ones most move. But they're also not a lot of swing voters that fall in that category.

[Lisa Booth]

Where do President Trump's approval ratings stand today? And how do you think that impacts.

[Robert Kahali]

The midterms well, we haven't done a recent approval, but what I've seen in from the, you know, I mean, here's the thing. It's not hard to figure out who the good pollsters are. All you gotta do is go look at the election results and then everybody who was off, yeah, three or four points on average just quit paying attention to their polls. And when you do that, there's not a lot of pollsters left and look at what they're saying and the ones that we see that we trust. As a matter of fact, I'm sure probably aware of the national association of Independent Pollsters that we are one of the founding members of all of the members on that you can depend on looking at those polls and let me run through those in case people don't know. That's of course Trafalgar, Inside Advantage, Rasputin Report, Big Data Poll, Qantas, Susquehanna and John McLaughlin polling. So those are ones that you can take a, you, you can look at those and realize that they're upper echelon. And so what we see out of most of those is it's pretty close to even. And you know, the midterms, I'll give you the same answer I give everybody else. The midterms are going to be, no matter what anybody tells you, the truth is they're going to be about the economy. We're going to have many, I mean, with the Fed chief leaving in May, there will be many Fed meetings after that. And if they continue to lower the interest rate and the housing market explodes, which I think it will, if at the same time a lot of these new onshore jobs that they had to build or expand factories, they're going to be hiring it. So I think the unemployment rate is going to be low and if the economy is humming like low, lower interest rates and more jobs can make it home, I think the Republicans will be in great shape. But if the economy is bad, then I think they won't be in great shape. And so a lot of this is out of the control right now. I mean, I know we're going to have all these redistricting in these certain states and, and the fact is the Republicans have gerrymandered a lot less than the Democrats and way more Republican states that can redo theirs. I remember watching Meet the Press and you know, you had the governor of Illinois, Pritzker on there talking all that and I was actually really, really happy to see welcome call him out and go, wait a minute, you know, Trump got 30% of the vote and you know you've got like two or three congressmen, like you're the most German state in the country. You in Massachusetts, it's like she called him out on it. It's like who are you to be talking about gerrymandering? And that's the truth. They're all their states are so much more. I mean what Trump got 30% of the vote Massachusetts and they have zero Republican congressmen. So again, those will make a difference in a House that comes down to three or four by vote. But the fact is a good economy is going to swing everything. I can tell you right now, I've done a lot of study on this. Without the Roe vs. Wade verdict, you would have what you had in a lot of states. In 2020, there were a lot of states, it was a massive red wave. But in the states where the Democrats built a big machine, where they had a statewide race, they utilized that abortion ruling for Dobbs to scare people on what would be. It was a scare tactics. By 2024, most people lived in a state where they were comfortable with their abortion laws and it didn't play the role it did. But in 2022, nobody knew what was going to happen. The ruling was too new. And so the scare tactics worked. But again, the economy was good. The economy was not as bad and affecting things. Excuse me, the economy was bad and people were trying to wanted Republicans and save that abortion going. The Republicans would have had massive pickups and I think it's the same way if the economy is bad, they'll want to switch parties and go back to Democrats and the economy is good. I think the Republicans have excellent chance of holding on. So all the tactics out there are fine. But frankly, more Fed meetings and getting those jobs cycled up is going to what's going to make make the difference.

[Lisa Booth]

It always comes down to the economy.

[Robert Kahali]

Doesn't does in so many ways. Yeah, you know, like I said, but unless there's something that charges ahead and in 2022 that was the Dobbs ruling, that ruling doesn't happen. The Republicans pick up such a massive number that I don't think Joe Biden would have been able to run for reelection.

[Lisa Booth]

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[Jacob Goldstein]

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[Lisa Booth]

Ah come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.

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[Lisa Booth]

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[NFL Network Announcer]

The NFL International games continue on NFL Network. And here our stars come out in the morning. Week 10, Bajan Robinson and the Falcons touchdown. Atlanta take on Daniel Jones and the Colts in Berlin. Fireworks in the fourth quarter. Then in Week 11, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders touchdown. Washington face Tua and the Dolphins in Madrid. Snooze off. Game on. It's Sunday morning Football continues November 9th at 9:30 Eastern only on NFL Network.

[Lisa Booth]

When you've also got, you know, obviously we've got the redistricting stuff that we're still waiting to see what happens with that. But you know, there's also like I think 13 Democrats running in state in districts that Trump won, whereas I think there are only three Republicans running in states that, that Kamala Harris won.

[Robert Kahali]

So but let's remember this, even in 2024, we got four states that Trump won and the Republicans lost. Senate race, frankly, that's unacceptable. Yeah, that is a ball dropped. That, that is ridiculous. And that should have never happened. And that the Republicans got outsmarted with people running, I think Wisconsin, they created a party called the MAGA Party which got enough votes to be the difference in that race. And they played all kind of games which kind of proved the Democrats were thinking about winning those races a year in advance. Republicans were playing catch up. Republicans had four very good candidates. Don't let anybody blame that on those candidates. Now that was a structure problem and there's nowhere around that. And that was that they just didn't build the machine the way they should have built it. There's no excuse for Trump winning as, especially as large as he did in Arizona and Nevada to lose those races. So just because Trump won something doesn't mean the apparatus is there. I think we still see there's still a lot, Republicans still have a lot of spending that doesn't win elections and makes people rich.

[Lisa Booth]

Well, and Trump's such a unique candidate. So to your point, you know, that doesn't always necessarily get passed on to the Republican running in that race.

[Robert Kahali]

I think it can, but I think they've got to do the work to make it happen.

[Lisa Booth]

Yeah.

[Robert Kahali]

And again, losing out to somebody who got on the ballot as a MAGA candidate with literally the term MAGA beside their name. That's not the way, you know, I mean that that happened in Wisconsin and they're just that was somebody not handling the stuff right a year out before there was even a Republican nominee. So again, I put that on the structure.

[Lisa Booth]

Well, Robert Kahali, we will be watching this this November. The race is there. We'll see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia and would love to have you back as we head into the midterms and things start picking. Obviously we're a little far out right now, but you know, we'd love to have you on to keep us updated as we pay attention to it. Always appreciate your insight.

[Robert Kahali]

Always a pleasure to be on your show and speak to your highly intelligent audience.

[Lisa Booth]

So thank you those Robert Kahali, chief pollster of the Trafalgar Group. Appreciate him for making the time to come on the show. Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday, but you can listen to and throughout the week. Also want to thank John Cascio, my producer, for putting the show together. Until next time.

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[Lisa Booth]

Come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.

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