Podcast Summary: The Truth with Lisa Boothe — The Data Behind GOP Momentum in New Jersey and Virginia

Episode Date: October 21, 2025
Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (iHeartPodcasts)
Host: Lisa Boothe
Guest: Robert Cahaly, Chief Pollster, Trafalgar Group

Episode Overview

This episode features a deep dive into the political climate and polling data surrounding the hotly contested gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, featuring Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group. Lisa Boothe and Cahaly examine why these states are so competitive, what the numbers reveal, the significance of recent polling shifts, and whether these races serve as national political bellwethers for the 2026 midterms. They also discuss the implications of the ongoing government shutdown, President Trump’s approval ratings, and structural party issues that could impact the coming elections. The tone is analytical, candid, and at times humorous, with Booth guiding a fast-paced conversation and Cahaly providing pollster insights with a touch of Southern charm.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. State of the Virginia and New Jersey Gubernatorial Races

• Polling Landscape ([04:34]–[07:37]):

  • Cahaly describes the races in both states as “very, very tight,” with Trafalgar data showing a near tie in New Jersey and a three-point race in Virginia.
  • The New Jersey contest is impacted by questions about the Democratic candidate’s Naval Academy record and tax issues, fueling voter skepticism.
  • Trafalgar and Emerson are cited as the most accurate pollsters ("most of the other polling... tend to get this thing wrong").
  • Quote: “We’ve got that thing right now at a one point race... This is a very close race. Not saying the Republicans are going to win, but I think it’s one that with just a little bit of tweak either way, this one could go to Republicans.” – Robert Cahaly [06:46]

• Challenges in Virginia ([08:29]–[12:02]):

  • The GOP faces hurdles in selling their candidate; Winsome Sears (R) lags in messaging compared to Glenn Youngkin’s successful 2021 campaign.
  • Older voters are more responsive to Sears, but the critical 45–65 demographic is harder to reach via traditional methods.
  • Cahaly critiques Sears' campaign for not forcefully distancing herself from unpopular Democratic figures or leaning harder into key conservative issues.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “It ought to be an easy sales pitch if this lady says she’s an independent... but somehow she’s unwilling to do this with Jones... I just don’t think that Sears is pushing this hard enough.” — Robert Cahaly [09:23]
  • “That 45–65 crowd is a harder crowd to put a message in front of... I just don’t see them selling it quite the way they need to there.” — Robert Cahaly [10:36]

2. Bellwether Status & Broader Political Implications

• Are These Races National Bellwethers? ([18:32]–[21:16]):

  • Historically, New Jersey and Virginia have been seen as bellwethers in off-year elections, but their current political makeup (solidly blue in recent presidential elections) complicates that narrative.
  • Cahaly: “New Jersey? I think that tells people a lot if a Democrat wins... [But] Virginia may be more purple, but purple outside of Trump because Trump is such an anti-establishment, anti-swamp, anti-DC insider candidate that he will never do as well in Virginia than someone who is not seen that way.” [19:22]
  • Glenn Youngkin is praised as a uniquely strong candidate: “He’s one of the best candidates... run for governor anywhere.” [21:05]

• Impact of Trump as a Candidate ([22:37]–[23:23]):

  • Trump’s anti-establishment stance resonates in some areas but makes Virginia tough terrain for Republicans in statewide races.
  • Cahaly: “If I were Trump, I’d say being against the Swamp is worth losing Virginia.”

3. Scandal and Voter Shifts

• Attorney General Race in Virginia ([23:23]–[26:25]):
  • The Democrat candidate Jay Jones’s controversial comments have shifted the race, especially among “high information voters” in Northern Virginia.
  • Cahaly: “That’s not okay... even the most middle of the road person... can say, ‘Well, no, but I’m not for that.’” [24:52]

4. Government Shutdown: Who Cares and Why?

• Voter Impact and Salience ([26:25]–[29:52]):
  • The shutdown primarily affects federal workers (significant in Virginia), but for most Americans, only direct impacts (like interrupted travel) would change opinions.
  • People who miss government checks are more likely to respond at the ballot box, but they’re not typical swing voters, says Cahaly.
  • Notable anecdote: The 2021 Georgia runoffs centered on whether voters would get $1400 stimulus checks.
  • Quote: “People vote their pocketbook. So the shutdown, the people whose pocketbook it hurts, are going to be the ones most move. But they’re also not a lot of swing voters that fall in that category.” [29:13]

5. Trump’s Approval Ratings and Economic Outlook

• Polling Credibility and Economic Drivers ([29:52]–[34:54]):
  • Trafalgar and a select few pollsters are deemed reliable by Cahaly; current polls show Trump’s approval is “pretty close to even.”
  • The major factor for the midterms will be the economy – jobs, interest rates, and inflation supersede cultural or personality issues.
  • Cahaly: “The midterms are going to be about the economy... if the economy is humming... I think the Republicans will be in great shape. But if the economy is bad, then I think they won’t be.”
  • The influence of abortion policy was fleeting post-Dobbs; Cahaly contends that by 2024, the issue had faded and the economy returned to the fore.

6. Down-Ballot and Structural GOP Challenges

• Senate and House Landscape ([38:46]–[41:13]):
  • Discussion of redistricting and the fact that Democrats "gerrymander more than Republicans."
  • Cahaly criticizes GOP for structural failures in states where Trump won but GOP Senate candidates lost, blaming lack of ground game and organization, not candidate quality.
  • Quote: "Republicans had four very good candidates. Don’t let anybody blame that on those candidates. Now that was a structure problem and there’s no way around that." [39:12]

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• Lisa Booth, referring to candidate vulnerability:
  "They say snitches end up in ditches, right? So maybe in New Jersey...” [07:37]

• Cahaly’s take on polling errors:
  “I mean, when I look at some of these polls... showing margins of 5 and 7... I just don’t know what they’re doing. I really don’t.” [08:29]

• On economic determinism in American elections:
  "It always comes down to the economy.” – Lisa Booth [34:32]

• Cahaly’s blunt assessment of campaign structure:
  "Republicans still have a lot of spending that doesn’t win elections and makes people rich.” [40:34]

• Cahaly on voter sophistication in Virginia:
  “Virginia is a place where the most liberal element or the most middle of the road element are also what you would say as high information voters... they’re going to know all the details of that scandal in a way that some other states might not.” [24:15]

Timestamps of Important Segments

• 03:00 — Introduction to Robert Cahaly and overview of the races
• 04:34 — Cahaly’s polling insights on New Jersey and Virginia tightness
• 07:37 — Candidate vulnerabilities and polling discrepancies
• 10:36 — Challenges reaching the 45–65 voter demographic
• 12:02 — Unique characteristics of Virginia's government-worker electorate
• 18:32 — Are these races true bellwethers for the national mood?
• 19:22 — Trump's presence and candidate strength in state races
• 23:23 — Impact of Jay Jones’s comments on Attorney General race
• 26:25 — Voter attitudes toward the government shutdown
• 29:52 — Reliability of polling, Trump’s approval, and what drives the midterms
• 38:46 — Redistricting, down-ballot ballots, and GOP party structure critiques

The Takeaway

This episode underscores just how fiercely competitive the 2025 off-year races are in New Jersey and Virginia, heightening their perceived significance for the GOP’s prospects in the 2026 midterms. Robert Cahaly provides a nuanced, numbers-driven analysis of why Republicans are closing the gap, the pitfalls of traditional polling, and the unpredictability of races shaped by local issues, candidate quality, and national dynamics. But throughout, the constant refrain remains: ultimately, it’s the economy that will decide the future — not just of these races, but of the national political landscape.