The Tudor Dixon Podcast: Obama vs. Trump on Deportations, Crime & the Immigration Narrative

Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Date: February 2, 2026
Guest: Dr. John Lott (Economist, Former DOJ Advisor, President of the Crime Prevention Research Center)
Host: Tudor Dixon

Episode Overview

This episode of the Tudor Dixon Podcast, featured on The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, delves into the contentious topics of immigration enforcement, deportations, and crime under recent presidential administrations. Host Tudor Dixon speaks with Dr. John Lott to compare and contrast the records of Barack Obama and Donald Trump on deportations and ICE operations, discuss the escalation in attacks against ICE officers, and analyze political narratives shaping public perception around immigration and law enforcement.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Obama vs. Trump: Deportation Data and Media Narratives

• Comparison of Error Rates in Detentions

  • Dr. Lott notes that reliable data is only available for the last two years of the Obama administration and for the Trump years (03:21).
  • Under Trump, the rate of accidental detention of American citizens by ICE was 1 in 14,900 detained (0.0067%). Under Obama, it was three times higher—1 in 4,000.
    • "Obama also defined detentions and arrests differently than other administrations... If you were to kind of compare apples to apples... the error rate could have been much, much higher... for Obama than for Trump." — Dr. John Lott (05:01)
  • The data is lacking for the Biden administration, which both Dixon and Lott find suspicious.

• Media Treatment of Detention Errors

  • Dixon and Lott recall a CNN ride-along where mistakenly detaining a wrong person was presented as understandable and routine due to the “chaotic situation.”
    • "The media portrayed it like it was totally normal. Now... egging on these protests, egging on people to go out and attack ICE." — Tudor Dixon (07:32)

2. Attacks on ICE: Statistical Increases and Political Consequences

• Rising Threats Against Officers

  • Explosive increases in violence against ICE in 2025: assaults up 1,347%, vehicle attacks up 3,200%, death threats up 8,000%. (08:26)
    • "It's understandable why these ICE officers wear masks... You have doxing that's occurring." — Dr. John Lott

• Policy & Identification Issues

  • Proposed Democratic legislation would require ICE officers to disclose personal information, increasing risk to personal safety.

• DNA and Identity Verification Loopholes

  • Biden administration allegedly failed to collect DNA samples from released detainees, making identification harder.
    • "They may have given false names in very likely cases..." — Dr. John Lott (09:56)

3. Political Divides: Law Enforcement, Crime Victims & Media Bias

• Framing of Law and Order

  • Dixon positions Democrats as actively undermining law and order, accusing elected officials of “putting US through a shutdown” over ICE identity protections and failing to protect the public from violent criminals. (11:14)
    • "These are rapists, these are murderers, these are pedophiles..." — Tudor Dixon

• Media Bias in Representing Victims

  • Discussion of high-profile crimes, such as Riley’s murder and coverage during election cycles.
  • Critique of journalists (e.g., Margaret Brennan) for misleading statistics around ICE’s detainee criminal records.
    • "Margaret Brennan... only dealt with crimes committed or charged in the United States. 70%... is a lot of people." — Dr. John Lott (15:32)

• Crime Within Immigrant Communities

  • Dr. Lott: Violent crimes by illegal immigrants disproportionately target others within the same demographic (e.g., illegals victimizing other illegals).
    • "People tend to commit crimes against those who are similar to themselves..." — Dr. John Lott (12:51)
  • New York’s policy of not notifying ICE when releasing convicted criminals is highlighted as endangering the public (14:44).

4. Crime, Race, and Policy Outcomes

• Victims of Crime & Policies’ Real-World Impact
  • Lott recalls federalized law enforcement in DC under Trump led to 18 days without a single murder—96% of murder victims in DC were black.
    • "Whose lives do you think you’re saving? When 96% of the murder victims are black, it’s pretty clear.” — Dr. John Lott (25:15)
  • He also discusses how vulnerable populations (poor, minorities, women, elderly) are most harmed by anti-enforcement policies.
    • “It’s the very people that the Democrats claim that they care about... who are harmed by this.” — Dr. John Lott (24:25)

5. Local Officials, Electoral Consequences, and Gun Control

• Recent Policy and Legislative Moves

  • Discussion of Minneapolis, Virginia, and local officials allegedly failing to protect law enforcement or public safety.

    • Renee Goode and Alex Preddy’s deaths are cited as examples of failures by local authorities to enforce the law (29:50).
      • “A large portion of the responsibility for their deaths rests with local officials in Minneapolis.” — Dr. John Lott

  • Gun legislation in Virginia is discussed, with fears of mass criminalization of legal gun owners.

    • “He wants to immediately make [guns] illegal. Overnight I could be a felon.” — Tudor Dixon (27:05)

6. Political Motivation: Power, Census, and Sanctuary Cities

• Census and Congressional Representation

  • Lott posits that the motivation to resist deportation even for convicted violent criminals lies in census-driven federal funding and congressional seats.
    • “California may have six congressional seats that they otherwise wouldn’t have gotten because of illegal aliens in the state.” — Dr. John Lott (33:06)

• Economic Burden

  • New York’s annual cost to house illegal aliens in prisons is over a billion dollars, yet politicians resist deportation, possibly to retain political power and federal funds.

• Sanctuary Cities Clarified

  • Dixon refutes the “sanctuary” branding:
    • “Sanctuary cities... it is not a sanctuary for people who are law-abiding... it is where the worst of the worst go to hide.” — Tudor Dixon (35:52)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Deportation Error Rates:
  “Obama made an error at about 1 of every 4,000 illegals compared to 1 out of every 14,900 under Trump. That’s more than a threefold difference.”
  — Dr. John Lott (05:43)

• ICE Under Threat:
  “Assaults on ICE officers in 2025 were up 1,347% over what they were in 2024... death threats up like 8,000%.”
  — Dr. John Lott (08:26)

• Crime Victims in Immigrant Communities:
  “Illegals tend to disproportionately commit crimes against other illegals.”
  — Dr. John Lott (12:51)

• Power and The Census:
  “California may have six congressional seats that they otherwise wouldn’t have gotten because of illegal aliens in the state.”
  — Dr. John Lott (33:06)

• On "Sanctuary" Cities:
  “Sanctuary cities... it is not a sanctuary for people who are law-abiding... it is where the worst of the worst go to hide.”
  — Tudor Dixon (35:52)

Important Timestamps and Segments

• Obama vs. Trump error rates in deportations: 03:21–05:42
• Rising attacks on ICE officers: 08:26–11:13
• Media and political narrative on deportations: 11:14–14:43
• Statistics on ICE detentions and criminal records: 15:00–17:20
• Crime rates and victims’ demographics: 21:18–26:08
• Minneapolis and Virginia: local policies, gun laws: 26:08–31:39
• Power, census, and sanctuary policies: 33:06–36:00

Concluding Remarks

• Dr. John Lott urges listeners to consult his research and links at crimeresearch.org for supporting data (37:08).
• Tudor Dixon calls for supporting ICE officers and understanding the political motivations behind sanctuary policies and anti-enforcement measures.
• Both agree on the significance of being informed and sharing facts in discussions about immigration and public safety.

For more in-depth facts, visit Dr. Lott’s research at crimeresearch.org.