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The Tudor Dixon Podcast: Obama vs. Trump on Deportations, Crime & the Immigration Narrative
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Tudor Dixon
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Tudor Dixon
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Dr. John Lott
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Tudor Dixon
Welcome to the Tudor Dixon Podcast. We are going to talk about law enforcement today. I know a lot of you are going what is going on right now? We see all this stuff happening in Minnesota. What is the true story behind the deportations and everything that President Trump is doing. I decided it would be best to talk to Dr. John Lott about that. He's an economist and also a former senior advisor to the Department of Justice and the president of the Crime prevention research center. Dr. Lott, thank you so much for joining me.
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Dr. John Lott
It's great to talk to you again. Thank you for having me on.
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Tudor Dixon
Absolutely. So we always talk about the fact that people forget Obama was considered the deporter in chief and he, he received that name from his own side. They called him the deporter in and they're now saying, well, Donald Trump is out of control with what he's doing. So I thought I would ask you, can we compare their records a little bit?
- [03:21]
Dr. John Lott
Yeah, you know, unfortunately, there's really only good data for a lot of these questions for the last two years of the Obama administration, 2015 and 2016. But you know, it's amazing to me how there's really no comparisons that go on in the media. You know, you, you know, it seems like the standard that they want to hold people to is that there's absolutely no mistakes that are ever made. And you know, to me, the thing is, well, what is the rate of mistakes? How does it compare to others? So, for example, a lot of the media will focus on this report from ProPublica, kind of a left wing media organization, claiming that 170Americans have been accidentally detained by ICE. What they leave out of that is that 130 of those 170 were arrested and detained by ICE because they had either attacked ICE officers or had interfered in some way with the operations there. But you still have 40 that are there. And if you break down the amount of time, most of those are held for less than a day, many of those for just even an hour or a couple hours just to double check things, and then released. There's literally three of them that were held for more than 48 hours. Obviously, you don't want anybody to be held who shouldn't be held in these things. But you know, when you break it down and you look at the fact that there are about 600,000 illegals who were detained during that period of time last year, you're talking about an error rate of 0.0067. So you're talking about something that's, you know, thousands of one percentage points, like one mistake there for every 14,900 illegals who were detained. But as you say, one can compare it to the past. Again, this data wasn't collected during the Biden administration and only two years for Obama.
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Tudor Dixon
But why wasn't it collected during the Biden administration? I don't know.
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Dr. John Lott
Have to go and ask the people in the Biden administration what they found interesting to collect or not on these things.
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Tudor Dixon
Wow.
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Dr. John Lott
And so. And it is frustrating to do that. But. So if you look at the two years that we have data for, for on detentions and who is being accidentally detained under Obama, you find that basically he made an error at about 1 of every 4,000 illegals compared to 1 out of every 14,900 illegals under Trump. So that's like more than a threefold difference there in terms of a higher error rate. And so, you know, and the other thing just to keep in mind is that Obama also defined detentions and arrests differently than other administrations. So they would count detentions as people that they caught coming across the border and then immediately returned. At that point, those are unlikely to be American citizens that you're catching at that point. It's not too many American citizens try to sneak across the border from Mexico and get caught. And so the error rate, if you were to kind of compare apples to apples, but we really can't. I mean, maybe 70% of the people who were classified as detained under the Obama administration were people who tried to sneak across the border. You know, it could have been their error rate could have been much, much higher than more than three times higher for Obama than it was for Trump last year.
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Tudor Dixon
Hmm. That's interesting, because even when cnn, let's not forget cnn, did that ride along, that kind of came back up in the media, or at least in social media last week, and people started to post the images from that and the video. In that one video, when they were riding along, they picked up the wrong person and they detained him. And then. And then CNN says, turns out the guy that they picked up in the morning was not the right person. They were looking for his brother. When once they got him detained and they talked to him, they worked it out, they figured out we have the wrong guy, took him back, went and got his brother. So they were reporting on it like it was totally fine. You know, they made a mistake this ha. And they say, it's a chaotic situation, this happens, but they ended up getting the right guy. That was the way the media portrayed it back then, like this was totally normal. Now the media is really, I would say, egging on these protests, egging on people to go out and attack ICE. And these attacks on ICE are up like 3,000%.
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Dr. John Lott
Right? You know, if you look at assaults on ICE officers in 2025, they were up 1,347% over what they were in 2024. If you look at car attacks, vehicle attacks on ICE officers, it's up like 3,200%. If you look at death threats that ICE officers have received, it's up like 8,000%. You know, it's understandable why these ICE officers wear masks. You have doxing. That's occurring. I mean, one of the hang ups that's occurring in the budget debate that's going on right now. It looks like we're going to head for a budget shutdown after Friday is that Democrats want to be able to put into law that ICE officers identities can be determined. You know, that they will be wearing some identifying information on them that makes it so that their names can be readily identified by others. And, you know, it just, it's, you know, I have to say, it's amazing how few, relatively few errors ICE is making now given how difficult of a job that they have. And they have a difficult job in many ways, not just from these threats, but also the Biden administration did not follow the law when it released people into the United States. So, for example, technically they're supposed to keep, have DNA samples to make sure that you can identify individuals for those that they release. They didn't do that. Surely you remember stories in the media about how they would find passports and other identifying information for people who are crossing the border, dumped in large dumps before people cross the border. Well, why are they doing that? They're doing that so that immigration officials were not able to check to make sure they knew the identity of those people who were there. They may have given false names in very likely cases there. All those things, you know, not knowing for sure who it is that has come into the country, making it more difficult to identify the person once you've caught them in the United States. All those things you would think would increase the error rates that you have there. And so it just makes it even more kind of impressive, the low error rates that they seem to have, at least compared to, I mean, dramatically lower compared to what happened under the Obama administration where they didn't have to deal with those types of confounding difficulties.
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Tudor Dixon
But what a shocking and dangerous time for us to consider. We have to look at the Democrat Party now as the party that is truly against law and order if they, I mean, really against the American people, if they're willing to put us through another shutdown and putting US through a shutdown. We know that this shuts down all of our agencies. I mean, remember we had air travel shut down. This is a disaster. To get to the point where we aren't paying people to do the jobs that the government is required to do for the American people. But to think that they would shut the government down to reveal the ICE officers who are putting their lives in danger every day to get these really bad people off the streets. And that's the other thing that the news media will not talk about. They will not talk about the fact that this is the worst of the worst. These are rapists, these are murderers, these are pedophiles. They won't even acknowledge that they're on the side of this debate of total chaos. I mean, how do they see that as a good thing? And now you've got some of these elected officials and political commentators saying that they're calling for Nuremberg style trials after President Trump is out of office, that they want to get control and then they want to put everybody who's involved in this on trial. And I just want to say, no, part of me believes that these trials stop with law enforcement. And I of course think that that is horrific. But I tell you, it goes on to everybody who believes in law and order.
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Dr. John Lott
Right? So there are so many things that you're just bringing up there at the beginning. Let me just make one comment that is, it's not just American citizens who are being hurt. People tend to commit crimes against those who are similar to themselves. You know, for example, 90% of blacks are murdered by other blacks. About 85% of Hispanics are murdered by other Hispanics. Illegals tend to disproportionately commit crimes against other illegals. So, you know, even if you believe them that they care about illegal aliens generally, presumably they care about illegal aliens who aren't committing crimes, who are victims of crimes there. And, and yet, you know, leaving these illegals in the country means that they're more likely to be victims just like others. You know, I recently did some work looking at New York State, and not only do you find that illegal aliens are disproportionately committing crimes, they make about 14% of, of the incarcerated population in the state, which is a huge underestimate of their share there, simply because it doesn't take into account that New York is not helping ICE identify whether individuals in their jails and prison systems are illegals. Also, ice, as you know, will pick up people when they're arraigned in county courthouses, so they never make it into the jails or the prison systems that are. There's a couple month period of time just in New York City last year, where CBS reports that about 460 such individuals were detained at courthouses by ICE. You know, that God only knows how many thousand you're talking about over the course of a year for the entire state that's there, but it turns out that that's about 3.4 times their highest estimated share of the general population there. So illegal aliens, despite the 14% being a big underestimate of their share of. Of criminals, are way overrepresented there. And that also doesn't take into account that last year New York released about 7,000 criminals who had been convicted from either prisons or jails. You know, a couple hundred have been convicted for murder. Hundreds had been convicted for rape, including child rape. They released them without notifying ICE that they were releasing those individuals. And so these were people who had been convicted by New York State courts as beyond a reasonable doubt as being criminals and committing violent and other horrible crimes were released back into the population. You know, if they had the normal recidivism rate, which is about 85% over five years, God only knows how many more crimes those individuals would have be committing. And again, against all sorts of people, but also probably disproportionately against illegals that are there. So, you know, one final thing, and that is, you know, I think it was the weekend before this last one where Kristi Noem, the Secretary of Department of Homeland Security, was on Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan. And they had a debate about how many, what percent of the people that they were picking up had criminal records. And Kristi Noem said that it was 70%. And Margaret Brennan said, no, it's only 47%, according to the records. But, you know, it's just interesting to see how the media just doesn't even listen to precisely what Kristi Noem was saying, because Kristi Noem was saying people who had committed or been charged with crimes either in the United States or their home countries. And it just gives an example of the bias there, because Margaret Brennan, I don't know, maybe she doesn't even know exactly what the numbers are that she was given to go and talk about, but the 47% that she was talking about only dealt with crimes committed or charged in the United States. And, you know, I don't know if somebody's been convicted of murder or rape or something like that in their home country. It seems like that's something we should take into consideration there. And it seems to me it's part of their criminal record. And so, you know, as I say, maybe Margaret Brennan didn't understand kind of what the 47% was that she was dealing with, but you know, 70%, that's a lot of people, and it's not like they're going out of their way to go and get the other 30%. But the problem is, is that if they go and they stop a car with an illegal alien who has a criminal record in there and there's another illegal alien in the vehicle there, they'll pick them both up and detain them.
- [18:11]
Tudor Dixon
Let's take a quick commercial break. We'll continue next on the Tudor Dixon Podcast.
- [18:18]
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- [18:46]
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And Peacock Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures want to score when your favorite player does well?
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- [20:05]
Tudor Dixon
You're being very generous to Margaret Brennan by saying maybe she didn't know, maybe she wasn't trying to manipulate it. And I say that because I feel as though the mainstream media has just completely turned on the American people. I mean, we just got through an election where Marjorie Taylor Greene stood up during the State of the Union and said to Joe Biden, say Lake and Riley, say her name. He didn't even know it. He couldn't even pronounce it correctly. I mean, we, we talked about Jocelyn Nungare, we talked about all these, Rachel Morin, you know, all these young women who are lost. And it seems disproportionately to be women who are lost when these criminals commit these horrific crimes. And yet it's women who are also defending these people on tv. And I, I really cannot understand how we got to the point where an American criminal is bad and should be put in jail. An American rapist is someone we are not happy about. But in a illegal or a rapist from another country, if they can't handle the word illegal, is someone we want to protect. How did this start?
- [21:19]
Dr. John Lott
Right, well, look, basically, it's the most vulnerable people in our society generally who are the most likely victims of violent crime. Criminals. I was chief economist for the US Sentencing Commission in, in Washington. I must have read a thousand trial transcripts. And, you know, criminals may not be the brightest people, but they aren't stupid if they can go and commit crime more easily. You know, so, like, you'd have, you'd read a trial transcript where you'd have somebody would turn state's evidence against one robber, would turn state's evidence and testify against another robber there. And they'd ask them the same types of questions. How did you pick the target you did? And he'll say, well, we thought about going after the drug dealer down the street because he has lots of money, but he also has lots of guns. We talked about going after a cab driver, but a lot of the cab drivers are armed. And that seemed kind of stupid. And then we saw this small woman walking alone in a parking lot late at night, and she looked like an easy target. And so we went after her. And so, you know, if they can get the job done with less risk to themselves, you know, they're going to go and do that. And so, you know, basically you have two groups of people. You have basically the ones who are the most likely victims of violent crime. And that overwhelmingly tends to be poor blacks who live in high Crime, urban areas and people who are relatively weaker physically, women and the elderly. You know, the interesting thing, there was a survey a little while ago for Chicago, asking people there if they wanted Trump to do for Chicago what he had done in Washington, D.C. and blacks and Hispanics were in favor of Trump doing that. The people who were against it were basically whites who are very strongly against it. Particularly. Well to do whites, you know, particularly liberals. I mean, but just whites as a whole, were. Were strongly against that thing. But, well, you know, whites don't see.
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Tudor Dixon
A lot of crime.
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Dr. John Lott
Right, Exactly. The people who aren't being affected by the crime, you know, it's a luxury. They could go and say, fine, we don't need to have law enforcement here. You know, what I will say is this isn't rocket science for reducing crime. It's the basic idea, just as I was describing before, that criminals respond to incentives in terms of deciding who to pick for a crime victim. If you make it riskier for criminals to commit crime with things like higher arrest rates, higher conviction rates, longer prison sentences, or you can also make it riskier by allowing victims to be able to go and defend themselves, for example, with a gun, all those things make it riskier for criminals to commit crime. You get less crime. The one thing I will say is that Democrats at least, tend to be very consistent on this stuff. They don't want to make it risky in terms of higher arrest rates or conviction rates or longer prison sentences. And they also don't want to let victims be able to go and defend themselves. So they don't want to make it risky for criminals in that way, either. But, you know, the thing is, it's the very people that the Democrats claim that they care about, the poor, minorities, women who are harmed by this. So, you know, when Trump federalized law enforcement in D.C. you had a number of Democrats who came out and claimed that Trump was racist because the only reason why he was doing this was because DC Is a heavily minority, heavily black city. But, you know, when Trump did that, you went 18 days without a single murder occurring in Washington, D.C. the latest data I have is from 2021, indicating that at that time, 96% of the people who were murdered in D.C. were blacks. Well, if you go for 18 days in a row in a city that had a very high murder rate, whose lives do you think you're saving? You know, when 96% of the murder victims are black, it's pretty clear whose lives you're saving as a result of that. And it's not Just that, you know, it's not just the direct victims of crime in terms of rapes and robberies and aggravated assaults that's there, but it's the indirect victims you have who owns disproportionately the businesses in those parts of the city. Businesses go out of business when you have high crime. Okay. Or they have to turn territories.
- [26:08]
Tudor Dixon
I can't believe that we're dealing with this in Minneapolis again and that this guy got reelected as mayor because I think, how can you watch your city burn once? How can you watch total chaos break out and the cheers from the people who are elected? I mean, Tim Walls, when he was running for president, his wife said, you know, I opened the windows of the governor's mansion so I could smell the tires. Bur people love chaos. You've got a new state rep in, I think it's Virginia, who wants to consider an assault weapon. Essentially any gun. The way he's defined an assault weapon is any, any gun. And he wants to immediately make them illegal. And he has drafted a bill and he was bringing that to the, to, to the state of Virginia and trying to the Commonwealth of Virginia and trying to say that this is going to be a new law. And people in Virginia are saying, oh my gosh, overnight I could be a felon.
- [27:05]
Dr. John Lott
Right. Well, elections have consequences there, you know. And I know Governor Youngkin over the past two years had vetoed something like 24 gun control bills that had passed through the legislature. The Democrats at the time just had like a one vote margin in both the House and the Senate, but they were still able to pass all those things at this point. You know, they have a huge majority in the state House of Delegates after the election. It's so close in the Senate, but, you know, they're going to be able to pass basically almost everything they want to pass. It's going to be up to the Supreme Court to determine whether or not, you know, what, what's going to be held constitutional or not. And hopefully things like the assault weapons ban will eventually make it up to the Supreme Court. But, you know, there's one thing, you know, at the beginning of your comments there about kind of the decisions that local officials make in terms of law enforcement. I have to say, these two deaths, Renee Good and Alex Preddy, a large portion of the responsibility for their deaths rests with local officials in Minneapolis. So, and the reason is, is that, you know, you look in the rest of the country, you don't see these types of people impeding ICE officers getting in the way, blocking Them, and there's a simple reason why they're able to do that in Minnesota, is that's because law enforcement there is not acting to protect ice. So, for example, Preddy, apparently a week before he had gotten into a violent encounter with, with ICE officers. Apparently, at least the claim is he had broken a rib and. But at least it was a sufficiently violent encounter for him to go and break a rib. Now, getting into a violent encounter with a federal law enforcement officer is a felony. And if he had been arrested, if there had been law enforcement there, the arrest of him. I mean, to me, you know, we mentioned earlier, 130 of these 170Americans who have been detained by ICE were detained because they had either assaulted or interfered with ICE officers. You know, that seems awfully small to me compared to the number of videos and other things I've seen in terms of the amount of interferences there. You know, Renee Goode, apparently she had been using her vehicle all day long to go and block ICE officers. It was kind of only at the end of the day that ICE finally had had enough that they went over the ICE officer, went up to the side of the vehicle, asked her to get out because he was going to arrest her at that point. And it was at that point that she drove her vehicle into the other ICE officer who was standing in front of the vehicle that was there. But, you know, in Preddy's case, let's say he had been arrested for the violent assault that he had done the week before. You know, there's a good chance he would have posted bond and been out. But if you're released on bond for a felony for assault on law enforcement officers, I hope at least you think twice before going and getting into another skirmish with law enforcement that's there. You know, if, if Renee Good had been picked up, apparently she'd been doing this beforehand, not just that day and had been booked multiple times, you know, there's a reasonable chance that she wouldn't have been in the position that she was, that neither of these individuals might have died if local law enforcement had been doing its job and had been arresting him. You know, if, if they were being arrested, there's a good chance that they wouldn't even been out to begin with. I mean, you have places like this.
- [31:17]
Tudor Dixon
There'S a good chance that that interaction wouldn't have happened because they would have already been arrested that day. And, and I think that that's, that's something that we have tried to portray to people. We've tried to Explain to people, look, you have a governor who has said, go out in the streets, record them. We're going to prosecute them later. Like, you're going to get a reward for this. We can't, we can't document all of this.
- [31:39]
Dr. John Lott
We need to have a governor who calls them Nazis. You have a governor who basically compares what's happening to the Nazis taking Anne Frank, you know, and so, you know, if, if I really believed that people were Nazis there, you know, and this gets back to our comparison with Obama. You know, there's nobody who, you know, you mentioned the CNN video kind of lauding what was going on at that time. It was the complete opposite. Nobody's going out there. And that even though the Obama administration was detaining American citizens at a much, much higher rate than Trump did this last year, nobody's going out there and calling in Nazis or even thought of anything even remotely similar in terms of names.
- [32:30]
Tudor Dixon
Let's take a quick commercial break. We'll continue next on the Tudor Dixon podcast. The left really believes that this is their turning point for the midterm elections. They used this in 2020. And that's the sad thing to me. I don't think that the people in power are actually passionate about the people who are being deported. I think they use this as an inflection point to say, okay, we can turn the election toward us. We can gain power back. And that you don't see that on the other side. You don't see this manipulation, their passion.
- [33:07]
Dr. John Lott
In one way, I've come to believe, you know, the question in my mind is, why do you fight against deporting illegal aliens who your own state has convicted of violent crimes? And, you know, you know, just release child rapists back onto the street. You know, people have a long history of child rape or other things. And I think part of it has to do with the census. You know, you have, I've seen estimates recently that California may have six congressional seats that they otherwise wouldn't have gotten because of illegal aliens in the state.
- [33:45]
Tudor Dixon
All about power.
- [33:47]
Dr. John Lott
And so, you know, it may be more than that. You know, this is based on the estimates of the number of illegal aliens in different states, which I think is a clear underestimate of the total in those states. But, you know, and also, they get money from the federal government based on how many bodies they have there, whether they're illegal Americans or illegals. And so, you know, I think sanctuary states kind of are depending on being magnets for both, for all types of illegals and to Me, the interesting thing is they claim that very few illegals commit crimes. And as we talked about before, I think the data clearly shows the opposite's true. But if they really believe that, if they really believe that few illegals commit crimes, then it wouldn't affect their congressional representation very much. It wouldn't affect the money that they get very much if they were to allow those to get deported. You know, and I was mentioned before in New York State, I basically did some simple back of the envelope calculations. The detainers that ICE has had for New York State, it doesn't break it down with whether the person's in prison or in jails. And there are different costs of imprisonment in those two places. But if you assume that they're all in prison, which is a lower cost, it basically cost New York State about over a billion dollars a year minimum to go and house those people. And so you have to ask yourself, a billion dollars. I mean, the state simply could turn them over to ICE and save a billion dollars a year. Why don't they do that? And, you know, so it's not just the fact that they release these individuals without notifying ICE into the general population, that they serve as basically a magnet because people know that there are certain states or cities that they can go to and local law enforcement won't turn them over to ice. So that serves as a magnet. But.
- [35:52]
Tudor Dixon
Well, and I think that is key. That's something that people don't understand. Sanctuary cities. They use very nice terminology. Sanctuary cities are a place where someone who has committed a crime and is not a legal citizen can hide. That is all it is. It is not a sanctuary for people who are law abiding, who want to live in this country, who want to become Americans. It is where the worst of the worst go to hide. And these politicians are, are protecting them. And I, I've, I mean, this is what we've been uncovering is it does add to their census numbers, it does add to their representation in Washington. They, it does help them gain power. And we're seeing, I mean, we just had someone on the other day that was telling us that even birthright citizenship is allowing people in other countries to vote. And there's a whole birth tourism issue that we're dealing with. So, I mean, I believe what you're saying. I think that we have a real problem. I appreciate the work that you do to go out there and support ice, and I think that's critical for all of us right now to continue that, to make sure that people understand that our officers are putting their lives on the line every day. And it's not just not fair. It's not right for them to be up against elected officials who are telling people to go out and get in their faces.
- [37:08]
Dr. John Lott
Well, thank you very much for having me on. People can find more information on all the points that we've been talking about on our website@crimeresearch.org crimeresearch.org and all the links to the underlying data so that they can check it out themselves.
- [37:25]
Tudor Dixon
And do that because that helps you to be intelligent when you talk about this, because you are going to talk about it whether you like it or not. Someone's going to bring it up and you just want to have those facts to back you up. Dr. John Lott, thank you so much for coming on today.
- [37:38]
Dr. John Lott
Well, it's great talking to you again. Thanks for having me on.
- [37:41]
Tudor Dixon
Yeah, good talking to you, too. And thank you all for listening. As always. You can get your podcast this is Podcast wherever you get your podcast. You can also watch the full video on Rumble and YouTubeutorderdixon. But just make sure you join us and have a blessed day. This is an I heart podcast, guaranteed human.