Trump's Spending Showdown, DOGE's Failure & The Battle With The Fed

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show Episode: Trump's Spending Showdown, DOGE's Failure & The Battle With The Fed
Release Date: June 18, 2025
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts

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Introduction

In this episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, host David Rutherford welcomes financial expert Bubba Wallace to discuss a range of pressing economic and political issues. The conversation delves into the intricacies of the latest government spending bill, the collapse of the Doge project, demographic challenges influencing economic policies, the current state of the U.S. economy, wealth-building strategies for younger generations, and the ongoing tension between the Federal Reserve and political figures like Donald Trump.

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Trump's Spending Showdown: Understanding the Big Bill

Key Discussions:

• Baseline Comparisons: The core of the debate revolves around how both Republicans and Democrats interpret the new spending bill's impact on the national deficit by comparing it to different baselines.

  "If you take this big beautiful bill and you compare it to current policy... it actually reduces spending and reduces the deficit versus... maintaining exactly what we're doing right now."
  — Bubba Wallace [05:39]

• Spending Cuts and Tax Extensions: The bill extends Trump-era tax cuts while implementing significant spending cuts in areas like Medicare, SNAP benefits, and renewable energy incentives. While Republicans claim it reduces the deficit by $2 trillion over the next decade, Democrats argue it increases the deficit by $3 trillion, citing different comparison points.

• Limitations in Spending Reform: Bubba critiques the bill for not addressing the most substantial areas of government spending, particularly on welfare programs benefiting baby boomers, which constitute a large portion of the budget.

  "The baby boomers are the biggest welfare queens in America... 60-70% of the budget's going directly to baby boomers."
  — Bubba Wallace [11:15]

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Doge Project's Demise: A Failed Attempt at Fiscal Reform

Key Discussions:

• Elon Musk's Intervention: The Doge project's initiative to curb government spending through a more business-oriented approach failed to produce meaningful changes due to entrenched interests in Washington D.C.

  "Elon Musk came in earnestly wanting to cut spending... but ran into the reality of Washington D.C., which is that government spending is the biggest honey pot in world history."
  — Bubba Wallace [09:24]

• Structural Challenges: The conversation highlights the difficulty of implementing substantial fiscal reforms in a system heavily influenced by powerful lobbyists and vested interests, particularly those benefiting from existing welfare structures.

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Demographic Shifts and Pronatalist Policies

Key Discussions:

• Incentivizing Parenthood: The government’s approach to encouraging higher birth rates through financial incentives, such as a $1,000 fund for new parents, is critiqued as ineffective compared to addressing fundamental issues like housing, healthcare, and education costs.

  "I think they're trying to tinker around the edges with what we'd call pronatalist policy... there's not a lot of evidence that I'm going to pay you $1,000 to have a kid is going to do anything."
  — Bubba Wallace [19:00]

• Housing Market Constraints: High housing costs are identified as a primary barrier to young people starting families, exacerbated by baby boomers' reluctance to downsize or invest in additional housing.

  "Why is housing so expensive? Well, we don't really build any housing. Because in certain cities, like baby boomers don't want more houses around their houses."
  — Bubba Wallace [19:30]

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Current State of the U.S. Economy

Key Discussions:

• Economic Resilience: Contrary to earlier fears triggered by tariff announcements, the U.S. economy has shown resilience with moderated inflation and continued growth. Investment in domestic industries is on the rise, driven by a desire to remain competitive within a substantial global consumer market.

  "The US Economy looks pretty healthy right now... There's a massive investment boom happening in the United States."
  — Bubba Wallace [21:25]

• Labor Market Dynamics: A shrinking labor force, primarily due to a decline in foreign-born workers, has led to increased competition for domestic labor, resulting in rising wages and enhanced productivity.

  "The labor force has shrunk, but it's driven entirely by foreign born labor... domestic labor forces continue to grow... their wages are rising more rapidly."
  — Bubba Wallace [22:00]

• Nationalist Economic Policies: The shift towards prioritizing domestic workers has fostered a more robust and self-sustaining economic environment, despite challenges in other areas.

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Wealth-Building Strategies for Younger Generations

Key Discussions:

• Discipline and Consistency: Bubba emphasizes the importance of regular investments in index funds, highlighting that wealth building is a long-term, disciplined process rather than reliant on volatile stock picks.

  "It's about discipline and consistency... just contribute money into an index fund in the S&P 500 consistently every two weeks or every month."
  — Bubba Wallace [24:32]

• Incremental Growth: Starting with foundational investments allows individuals to establish a baseline, upon which they can later diversify and explore more complex investment opportunities.

  "Once you have that baseline, then you can get a little bit more creative... it's just about discipline and consistency."
  — Bubba Wallace [24:50]

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The Battle With The Fed: Federal Reserve Independence

Key Discussions:

• Central Bank Autonomy: Bubba underscores the critical importance of the Federal Reserve's independence from political pressures to maintain economic stability and prevent scenarios akin to hyperinflation seen in other countries.

  "Central bank independence is really important because you don't want politicians in charge of the money supply."
  — Bubba Wallace [26:25]

• Conflict with Donald Trump: The ongoing tension between the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump is highlighted, with Bubba expressing skepticism that political interference will sway the Fed's monetary policies.

  "I have a huge problem personally with Donald Trump trying to dictate Fed policy or bully the Federal Reserve... Jerome Powell is just going to turtle up and wait even longer to cut interest rates out of spite."
  — Bubba Wallace [26:25]

• Lessons from COVID-19: The collaboration between the federal government and the Fed during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to significant inflationary pressures, serves as a cautionary example of the dangers of politicizing monetary policy.

  "During COVID... they printed $5 trillion, made the highest inflation in 40 years. So that shows you what happens when everybody gets on board together."
  — Bubba Wallace [26:40]

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Conclusion and Contact Information

As the discussion wraps up, Bubba Wallace shares ways for listeners to follow his work and insights:

"First Trust Economics blog... follow me on Twitter... Daddy Fat Stats."
— Bubba Wallace [29:00]

David Rutherford extends his best wishes to Bubba on his recent marriage and upcoming endeavors.

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Notable Quotes:

• On Fiscal Baselines:

  "The big beautiful bill... actually reduces spending and reduces the deficit versus... maintaining exactly what we're doing right now."
  — Bubba Wallace [05:39]

• On Government Spending:

  "The baby boomers are the biggest welfare queens in America... 60-70% of the budget's going directly to baby boomers."
  — Bubba Wallace [11:15]

• On Building Wealth:

  "It's about discipline and consistency... just contribute money into an index fund."
  — Bubba Wallace [24:32]

• On Federal Reserve Independence:

  "Central bank independence is really important because you don't want politicians in charge of the money supply."
  — Bubba Wallace [26:25]

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This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of current economic policies, their implications, and practical advice for individuals navigating the financial landscape. Bubba Wallace's insights offer a balanced perspective on fiscal responsibility, economic growth, and the importance of maintaining autonomous financial institutions.

Transcript

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[David Rutherford]

All right, everybody, I just have to let you all know that our next guest has been the most popular guest that we've had on the David Rutherford show. His show is the biggest show we've done so far. I had a bunch of the iHeart executives tell me how much they loved the show. And so in the midst of all the madness that's going on, what we thought would be essential to do for you all is to bring somebody on that knows the ins and the outs of the economy, the markets and everything financial to help you get a better understanding of how all the cash chaos is, is. Is going to affect us as a nation and then our position globally. So, ladies and gentlemen, my good friend Bryce Gill, who, by the way, is recently married. So welcome aboard, Bryce.

[Bubba Wallace]

Yeah. Well, hey, it's great to be with you, Dave. Always an honor. And yeah, you're. You're the first thing I'm doing since I got back from the wedding. Right. So I'm always happy to do this with you and your crew here and there's obviously always plenty to talk about.

[David Rutherford]

Well, that's crazy thing is that as things were popping off with this one big, beautiful bill, man, I'm texting Bryce like, hey, man, I need you to get you. I need to get you on. And he's like, rut, I'm at my wedding and. But I will as soon as I get home. So I, I'm so sorry to, to interrupt that incredible day for you guys.

[Bubba Wallace]

No, not at all. Listen, the big, beautiful bill, this is like 17 news cycles ago. Dave, what are we talking about? It's all about war with Iran this morning.

[David Rutherford]

That the. Right. But the thing that really hits me about it and we, you know, we did a little piece on it was, you know, I think everybody was so excited that with Doge and Trump and their relationship that now is like they're going through their breakup, you know, remorse now is, you know, that America was going to address the spending problem. But when we look at this big, beautiful bill, man, they're increasing spending pretty significantly. But What I needed to do is I needed someone like yourself, an expert, to come on and kind of break this down for the audience and let everybody understand what this is about and what you think the impact will be long term.

[Bubba Wallace]

Yeah. So, you know, it really matters when we're talking about these types of budget bills, what the baseline is. And what I mean by the baseline is like, what we're comparing in this new legislation, you know, hypothetical future, too. And so you have the Republicans saying, hey, this cuts spending. It reduces the nation's spending problem. You have Democrats saying, hey, this blows out the budget deficit. How can both of those things be true? It's because they're both comparing to a different baseline. So if you take this big beautiful bill and you compare it to current policy, what currently exists today, okay, it actually reduces spending and reduces the deficit versus, like, if we just maintain exactly what we're doing right now, okay? And that's because the big beautiful bill, hey, it does extend some tax cuts, right? But it also does cut a lot of spending. It cuts spending surrounding Medicare, SNAP benefits, solar, wind, electric, vehicle credits, and things of this nature. And so, like, if the Trump tax cuts and kind of like status quo today just continued, the deficit would expand by, I think, $5 trillion over the next 10 years. And so the big beautiful bill, hey, the deficit goes up $3 trillion over the next 10 years. But that means, hey, they cut basically $2 trillion worth of spending over the next 10 years versus current policy. It actually does reduce the deficit. So what are the Democrats talking about? The Democrats are basically, they're comparing it to, hey, the policy baseline, which just means the Trump tax cuts in the current fiscal environment that we have. When they passed all this stuff in 2017, there was a sunset clause. So the Republicans say it's cutting the deficit by 2 trillion. Democrats are saying it expands by 3 trillion. That's because they're saying, hey, all this current policy sunsets in 2025, the Trump tax cuts are set to end. And so versus the current policy situation, if we don't repass these tax cuts and all these taxes go up, then it leads to a situation where the big beautiful bill expands the deficit by $3 trillion. So when we're talking about cutting spending, and I have plenty of things to critique about this bill, and I'm happy to go into that, please, this does actually cut spending versus the current status quo. It only expands the deficit if you're assuming, hey, all this tax increases happen automatically, okay? And so I'm for expanding the tax cuts. This doesn't actually expand spending at all, the big beautiful bill. It just extends the tax cuts we already have. Okay. Which I am for. I just think, listen, I'm going to critique anything. It's that they're not really attacking spending in a, in like a significant way.

[David Rutherford]

I think that's the big question, right, Is will you bring in Elon Musk? You bring in his, you know, Harry Balls or whatever. That guy was my favorite. Right, right. Yeah, yeah. And you, you. And they dig in. We start to see this. You know what, there was 3.2 million people, 150 to 159 years old, with Social Security benefits. Right. We're seeing. And they never even gave, they dangled that little hook in front of us about how the corruption in Medicare and Medicaid and the fraud and that, but we never got those numbers. We never got anything. So, you know, give us your insight on were there enough cuts and, and, and if not, where do they need to focus on next?

[Bubba Wallace]

Yeah, you know, it's disappointing, right, because I feel pretty confident saying at this point that like the Doge project has totally failed.

[David Rutherford]

Wow.

[Bubba Wallace]

I mean, listen, they found like $180 billion of spending cuts that they could do. That remains up to Congress and the President to actually do those things. Right. But as of today, I'm just going to be honest, it's sort of a PR stunt. I think Elon Musk is just my personal opinion, right. I think that he came into this earnestly wanting to cut spending. Coming into it with a CEO mindset like, hey, we're going to find the waste of fraud and abuse, we're going to reduce this stuff that we don't need to be spending on. And I think very quickly it ran into the reality of Washington D.C. which is that government spending is the biggest honey pot in world history. Right. Like, I mean, this is like so many powerful people's pockets are being lined here and Elon Musk, AI tools, these, a bunch of these 20 year old genius people or whatever, they came in and they just hit sort of like the reality of the situation, which is that, hey, the Pentagon's not going to let you cut spending. Hey, we're not actually going to eliminate some of this, this waste, fraud and abuse and Medicare, you know, Social Security, payroll. We're not actually going to eliminate a lot of these other issues that we have. You can have usaid, you can have some of these other small things, but at the end of the day it's going to be business as usual. And So I think that's why Elon Musk ultimately left here is he just wasn't actually given the power to finish what he wanted to do. I think Donald Trump brought him in. Elon Musk helped him get elected, obviously, and Donald Trump, I don't think spending is really a priority for Donald Trump, honestly, I think that's where this fallout has happened. I think Elon Musk, I think he has reasonable arguments to criticize this big, beautiful bill. I think the spending cuts don't go far enough. And just to be honest, Dave, to actually affect the fiscal situation in the United States, you have to target the biggest welfare recipients in the country, which is not single moms, which is not government bureaucrats, it's baby boomers. The baby boomers are the biggest welfare queens in America. Social Security, Medicare, all this spending goes pretty much directly to them. The interest payments on the debt, that's a trillion dollars a year. Now who owns all the U.S. treasury bonds? The baby boomers. So I mean, you're talking about 60, 70% of the budget's going directly to baby boomers. And listen, they paid in the system. They deserve retirement benefits, fine. But the system's gotten so lopsided towards them. Unless you touch that spending, you can't really affect big change. And the banks, the pharmaceutical companies, the weapons contractors, whatever. We can talk about all these industries and their influence on government. The biggest lobby in the United States though is aarp, right?

[David Rutherford]

Did you just saw, did you see Trump just initiated that whole concept that if you have a child recently, they're gonna put $1,000 fund into a market based fund. What are your thoughts on that? Is that a way? Are they prepping the American public and in particular, you know, definitely probably not. Maybe my generation is gonna be the first that has to swallow that tough pill that, you know, as I've been paying in for my whole adult life, I'm probably not gon get access to that in the meaningful way that my parents did. But do you think that's what this whole thing is, is they're priming for a new system, a new approach in the future?

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[Bubba Wallace]

I don't know that they're trying to do like a wholesale change to the system. I think they're trying to tinker around the edges with what we'd call like pronatalist policy, which is just like, hey, how do we like pull some levers and flip some switches in the government to like incentivize people to have children? And I mean, you can look around the world, there's other places that have done pronatalist government policy. Right. And it just doesn't really seem to work very well. There's not like a lot of evidence that I'm going to pay you $1,000 to have a kid is going to do anything. The biggest issues I think with people having children is housing costs, the cost of healthcare and the cost of education. So those are the real issues you need to tackle. And I don't know on all three fronts, maybe a little bit less on education. But why is housing so expensive? Well, we don't really build any housing. Why don't we build housing? Because in certain cities, like baby boomers don't want more houses around their houses, right? Yep. A lot of people own investment properties. Baby boomers are one of the biggest owners of investment properties. They don't really trade up or trade down. They sort of stay in their houses forever. Right. I saw some anecdotes like baby boomers are the first generation ever to move into bigger houses as they retire. Which is just sort of hilarious. Right? It's supposed to be the opposite. So they don't really retire from their jobs. So I'm not trying to like brag on baby boomers only here, but I just think our system has become so lopsided towards retirees and older Americans that yeah, the younger people are coming up below and they're like, hey, everything's sort of unaffordable. The system's really built to help older people. Children are expensive. I'm not really going to have kids in this environment. So I think you got to tackle those three major chunks there.

[David Rutherford]

Well, that's a great.

[Bubba Wallace]

Probably society just needs to incentivize it a little bit more. Celebrate parents and celebrate children. We don't really do that over in.

[David Rutherford]

The west, that's for sure. I think that's a great little pivot point for us to talk about the current state of the economy. What does it look like if you're a 30 year old man or woman and you're looking externally at the economy, what are you Seeing right now that should either give you hope or what should cause some consternation.

[Bubba Wallace]

Yeah, well, I guess last time I was on with you was right after all these tariffs got announced. Everybody's panicking. It was the end of the world. The economy's going into recession. Here we are three or four months later. It's well after the tariffs have come out. We have a lot of economic data and what the economic data says basically is that inflation has continued to moderate and the economy has continued to grow. So it doesn't look like any of this really disrupted things in a massive way, as I predicted. Okay, I'll pat myself on the back there a little bit. But big picture, I mean, listen, the US Economy looks pretty healthy right now. I think you've probably got consumers are a little overextended. Certain credit card debt or auto loan debt is looking like, hey, we're sort of getting later cycle. But at the same time, what you have is a massive investment boom happening in the United States, right? Companies, businesses, everybody's sort of investing in factory production, bringing industry back home because they want to be behind the tariff wall. Because the United states, we're like 50% of global consumption. So if you lose us, you lose like half your revenue. So you know, all that investment, what that's going to do is going to drive hiring, it's going to drive wages higher, it's going to make people more productive. And at the same time, I think this is a really interesting part of the recent labor market report we got last Friday. Okay, what you saw is basically, hey, the labor force has shrank, okay? But it's driven entirely by foreign born labor. So basically it looks like a lot of people are either getting deported or self deporting to get out of this crackdown on illegal immigration. And hey, meanwhile the domestic labor forces continue to grow. People domestically have less people to compete against in the labor market. Their wages are rising more rapidly. And so I think it's kind of like a nationalist economic policy. Right. Domestic Americans I think are doing pretty well. I think the economy is going to continue to grow. I'm not saying there's not problems, but we are reversing some of the trends of the past 30 years. And I think the biggest beneficiaries have been normal people, basically. I do think there's some reasons for optimism about the US Economy right now.

[David Rutherford]

That's awesome to hear, man. The biggest thing, when I'm talking to younger advisors or younger people just around, as you and I both speak, constantly around the country, you Know, I'm asking, you know, what are you, what are you telling your, the people that are coming in that are trying to set up portfolios, that are trying to figure out how to generate some growth in their wealth, you know, what do you evaluate is the right message for what, what, what should this next generation, those people who, you know are getting married, like yourself, who are thinking about starting new families. Jordy himself's about ready to have his first child. So what advice do you give your generation of people about building wealth right now and what we're looking for in the future?

[Bubba Wallace]

Yeah, I mean, listen, I think building wealth is unfortunately a pretty boring topic. Everybody wants to have the big stock pick to tell people about at a dinner party. It's really just discipline. It's building wealth the same way you get in really good shape at the gym. Right. It's just showing up every day and doing it consistently and hey, I'm going to eat well, I'm going to show up to the gym. You know, I'm not going to make the bad decision consistently. You make the good decision consistently. Right. It's the same thing with building wallet. So I'd say, like, listen, just contribute money into an index fund in the S&P 500 consistently every two weeks or every month, whatever you can afford. Don't even look at the balance. Just kind of let it, let it fly. And over time that's going to build, build, build, build. Once you kind of have that baseline, then you can get a little bit more creative. Right. You can start looking at individual stocks or whatever else. Right. So it's just about discipline and consistency. Honestly, I wish I had a sexier answer, but that's kind of the reality of it being in the industry for over a decade. And also, like, if you go read every academic paper, they're going to tell you the same thing.

[David Rutherford]

Same thing.

[Bubba Wallace]

But by the way, I work at an investment manager, right. That sells individual ETFs or kind of an individual like strategies. Like you're as an individual, go buy an index fund. Right. I'm not even trying to push you into what I'm selling.

[David Rutherford]

Right on. All right, last question is, and I think this is the one that you know, is slowly as, as the world's on fire is buried, buried, buried. But it's still consequential is the spat between Powell and Trump, right. The war between the federal government and the, the Federal Reserve. What's your take and what do you think? Are they going to be forced to drop rates or why are they holding hard where they're at right now.

[Bubba Wallace]

Yeah. So I guess the first thing I'll say is one, personally, I don't have like an allergy towards like Donald Trump. I think that's kind of the way to think of, like, people just have an allergy towards this guy. Like everything he does annoys them. I don't really get that with Donald Trump. I'm happy. I like some of the things he does. I dislike some of the things he does. I also will say I think current economic conditions would. I think they support maybe 50 basis points in rate cuts, a minor amount of interest rate cuts. I support that. All that being said, I think that central bank independence, basically the Federal Reserve making its own decisions, separate and divorced from politics is very important. And so I have a huge problem personally with Donald Trump trying to dictate Fed policy or bully the Federal Reserve. One, I don't think it'll work. I think Jerome Powell, frankly, is just going to turtle up and wait even longer to cut interest rates out of spite. But two, central bank independence is really important because you don't want politicians in charge of the money supply. Right. This is a fundamental thing that keeps us from becoming Zimbabwe or Venezuela or Argentina or whatever. Anytime the central government and the central bank get together and they just print money like crazy to fix all the problems and paper over things, the people that get hurt the worst are investors as well as normal people. It's not just investors. It destroys the economy. So listen, there's obviously politics involved at the central bank too. Frankly, they've been too involved in politics. They care about climate change and diversity and racism and lead pipes and whatever. So they need to back off of that. But listen, they need to focus on the money supply and interest rates. And I think central bank independence is really important because you don't want politicians in charge of the money supply. We saw, by the way, Dave, we saw what happened when the federal government and the central bank worked together during COVID They shut down the economy. They printed $5 trillion, made the highest inflation in 40 years. So that shows you what happens when everybody gets on board together. Nobody's thinking, everybody's kind of panicking. I think the central bank just needs to do its thing and they need to ignore Donald Trump. That's my personal opinion.

[David Rutherford]

Roger that. All right, Bryce Gill, where can people follow you? Pay attention. And what's next for you?

[Bubba Wallace]

Yes, sir. Well, hey, First Trust Economics blog. That's where we write all of our pieces. Everything gets posted there. If you want to follow along with our opinion as a firm, that's the place to go. You can also follow me on Twitter if you want to. Don't really post there, but hey, I like a lot of different content and you can kind of see what my journal is internally. I guess that's Daddy Fat Stats.

[David Rutherford]

That still kills me the most, man. Daddy Fat Stats. I love it. I love it. All right, Bryce, God bless you, man. So happy for you and your new wife and we'll see you in the short time in the near future.

[Bubba Wallace]

All right, guys, have a good one.

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