Weekly Review With Clay and Buck H1 - Don't Panic and Listen to Us

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Weekly Review With Clay and Buck H1 – “Don’t Panic and Listen to Us”

Date: April 11, 2026
Hosts: Clay Travis and Buck Sexton
Overview of Episode Theme:
In this episode, Clay and Buck offer an unfiltered analysis of the current state of Middle East tensions following a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, the resulting market surges, and the complex negotiations ahead. With humor and opposing perspectives, they debate the durability of the ceasefire, the true leverage each side possesses, what “victory” actually means, and the risks involved if diplomacy fails. The episode is marked by skepticism, cautious optimism, and classic Clay and Buck banter as they unpack the challenges ahead for U.S. foreign policy, energy markets, and political outcomes.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Response to the Middle East Ceasefire

• Stock Surge and Drop in Oil Prices

  • As news of a ceasefire in the Middle East breaks, the S&P 500 surges 2.4% and Dow Jones jumps 2.7% (~1245 points) (02:37).

  • Oil and gas prices drop $18 (~15%).

  • Buck observes that calmer geopolitical climates can fuel positive market responses and cautions that days like this are rare.

    “Stock soaring, oil sinking as a truce, a ceasefire is underway in the Middle East. Now, Buck, as you can well imagine, we've got some cuts to play for you.”
    – Clay Travis, [02:37]

2. The Real Story Behind the Ceasefire

• Not a True Truce, Just a Pause

  • Clay Ambach is skeptical, calling this an "extension, not a binding agreement" and warning that nothing is settled long-term ([04:33]).

  • The Iranian 10-point deal via intermediaries in Pakistan is described as “awful” and unworkable, with demands for keeping nukes and control over the Strait of Hormuz ([05:34]).

  • The hosts agree that fundamental U.S. and Iranian positions remain far apart.

    "Their positions are we get to keep nukes, we get control and can take tolls on ships. ... This is not a long-term agreement. This is a 'We're going to stop pounding you from the air and try to talk to you…'"
    – Clay Ambach, [04:33]/[05:34]

3. The Race Against the Political Clock

• U.S. Politics, Public Tolerance, and Presidential Pressure

  • Domestic politics severely constrain U.S. options. Neither the American public nor Republicans want prolonged engagement or high gas prices.

  • The timeline for a final result is uncertain, with Buck doubting a genuine agreement can be reached in weeks.

    “I do not see a future in which Iran renounces its nuclear ambitions, agrees to... real nuclear inspections, gives up its highly enriched uranium.”
    – Buck Sexton, [06:18]

4. How Stable Is the Ceasefire?

• Predictions for Ongoing Flashpoints
  • Buck foresees intermittent violence and unresolved tensions through the end of the year:

    “There will be flashpoints on this for probably the next six months between now and the end of the year.”
    – Buck Sexton, [07:39]

  • The hosts debate whether Iran will truly negotiate or simply wait out U.S. political cycles ([08:31]).

5. Who’s In Charge in Iran?

• Is Iran’s Supreme Leader Able to Act?

  • Skepticism abounds regarding the Iranian chain of command; references to the “Gayetola,” Khamenei’s son, as a stand-in decision-maker ([09:14]).

  • The opacity in Iranian leadership complicates negotiations, as real power dynamics are uncertain.

    “Whoever is actually making the decision in Iran is able to say, oh, no, no, no, that's not us. If it's a little bit politically unpopular, that is the Supreme Leader—even if the Supreme Leader is unable to make decisions…”
    – Buck Sexton, [09:25]

6. Has Iran’s Military Been Neutered?

• Impact of U.S. Air Campaign

  • Buck argues Iran’s air force and navy have been “destroyed” and that the U.S. has heavy surveillance over Iran’s nuclear stockpiles ([11:02]).

  • However, both hosts doubt this will force Iran to surrender its nuclear ambitions or give up regional leverage.

    “Their military is done…all their uranium deposits, everything... we would take action as we see fit.”
    – Buck Sexton, [11:00]

• Clay cautions that Iran’s regime has survived prior maximum-pressure strategies and may see endurance as victory ([13:09]).

7. The Core Problem: Nuclear Ambitions and Economic Leverage

• Is There any Scenario Where Iran Truly Gives Up Nukes?

  • Both believe Iran is incentivized to continue its program, citing North Korea as precedent ([15:00]).

  • The possibility of the U.S. destroying Iranian civilian infrastructure is discussed but dismissed as unsustainable and politically unfeasible ([15:23]).

    “That's not something you really want to do to a country of 90 million people.”
    – Clay Ambach, [15:23]

• Iran’s Willingness to Suffer Versus U.S. Political Will

  • Clay notes, “They're not playing like we're richer than they are, obviously, but I don't think Iran's economy works if they're not able to ship oil and gas... their entire world collapses within a month.” ([33:29])

8. The Strategic Game Around the Strait of Hormuz

• Can Iran (Or the U.S.) Really Shut it Down?

  • Buck claims Iran’s threat to close the Strait is not credible given their reliance on it for revenue; China and Europe need Iranian oil too ([27:03], [29:39]).

  • Clay is less certain, suggesting Iran is willing to cause mutual harm if provoked and may shift to operating it as a toll business ([38:22]).

    “If you're going to not provide free passage to the Strait of Hormuz, then we are putting a US Aircraft carrier at the end of the straight and no ships are getting out. That would be my response if I were…”
    – Buck Sexton, [34:43]

• Bilateral “Face Saving” Solutions

  • Buck proposes a loosely enforced “wink-wink, nod-nod” deal—de facto nuclear freeze, public victory for both.

    “It allows Iran to save face with the leadership.”
    – Buck Sexton, [26:36]

  • Clay doubts Iran’s interest in such arrangements, believing they’re already emboldened and making maximalist demands ([26:40]).

9. Comparison to Russia Sanctions

• Both reference the “maximum pressure” campaign on Russia, noting it failed to halt Russian military operations due to ongoing oil and gas sales via third parties ([36:24]–[37:10]).
  • Clay: “Oil, gas, money talks, BS walks.” ([36:55])

10. Glimpses of Pessimism and Optimism

• Clay expresses greater skepticism—predicts no real deal or nuclear concession from Iran:

  “There's not going to be a deal...Mark that down.”
  – Clay Ambach, [23:15]

• Buck maintains guarded optimism that rational actors may yet guide a pragmatic outcome:

  “I'm optimistic. I just think that rationality at some level is going to play out. But we will see. We'll see.”
  – Buck Sexton, [40:02]

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Negotiation Gaps:

  “This is like, I want $1 million for my house. I'll give you five bucks. That's where we are.”
  – Clay Ambach, [08:52]

• On Iran’s Pain Tolerance:

  “This is, my friends, this is a suicide bomber culture we're talking about here in the Middle East. ... They would clear the minefields by walking on them. And that's what we're dealing with, everybody.”
  – Clay Ambach, [17:31]

• On Iran’s Internal Politics:

  “If you are seen as being in a good relationship with the United States and Israel, it's hard to have power. So we have to figure out who actually is capable of ruling Iran.”
  – Buck Sexton, [31:44]

• On the U.S.-Iran Leverage Game:

  “I think it's like 60% of their exports is oil...But they can't keep electricity on in the country. Even before we bombed them a ton, they were stopping kids from going to school because they couldn't afford to run power.”
  – Buck Sexton, [39:13]

• On Political versus Economic Suffering:

  “They're not playing like we're richer than they are, obviously, but I don't think Iran's economy works if they don't. If they're not able to ship oil and gas out of the Strait of Hormuz for a month, I think their entire economy collapses.”
  – Buck Sexton, [33:29]

---

Important Timestamps

• Ceasefire and Market Response: [02:37] – [05:34]
• Iran’s Demands & Unworkable Terms: [05:34] – [07:39]
• Ceasefire Durability Debate: [07:39] – [11:02]
• Leadership and Negotiation Reality in Iran: [09:14] – [13:09]
• Effectiveness of U.S. Air Strikes: [11:02] – [13:09]
• The Incentive for Nukes & Economic Leverage: [15:00] – [16:28]
• Strait of Hormuz – Realistic Threats: [27:03] – [38:22]
• Face-saving Potential Solutions: [26:26] – [27:03]
• Sanctions vs. Oil Revenue Precedent (Russia): [36:24] – [37:10]
• Summary of Both Sides’ Perspective (Closing): [39:31] – [40:09]

---

Overall Tone & Takeaways

• Tone: Spirited, candid, laced with dark humor and political skepticism. Clay is more pessimistic and direct; Buck is (cautiously) hopeful and reasoned.
• For Listeners: The episode challenges any simplistic “we won/they lost” narrative regarding U.S.-Iran relations. While there may be short-term economic optimism, the underlying geopolitical struggle and high-stakes negotiations are ongoing, with significant risks on the horizon—particularly if Tehran’s internal politics and capacity for pain outlast U.S. electoral patience.

---

For those who missed the episode:
You’ll get a clear sense of why the current “peace” may be fleeting, how economic, military, and political realities constrain both countries, and why the situation calls for vigilance—not celebration. Both hosts provide a vivid, at times witty, but always substantive debate on U.S. foreign policy challenges in 2026.

Transcript

[Clay Travis]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Public Investing Ad]

Guaranteed Human support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com kids pets

[Clay Travis]

life your sofa sees it all. But with a washable sofa, stains don't stand a chance. All of our sofa collections come with fully machine washable covers and cushions, making cleanup effortless. Liquid and stain resistant fabrics provide extra protection against everyday messes. Plus with modular designs you can rearrange your sofa however you like. Perfect for growing families and changing spaces. Starting at just $699, it's time to upgrade to a stress free mess proof sofa. Visit washablesofas.com today and save offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may

[Okta Ad]

App these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn, every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI Ryan Reynolds here from

[Firestone Ad]

Mint Mobile with a message for everyone Paying Big Wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying, no judgments. But that's weird. Okay one judgment anyway. Give it a try. @mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for

[Clay Travis]

3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full [e-mail] welcome back.

[Buck Sexton]

And I say back in because it feels like we're constantly talking and always here because there is a lot of hours that we spend with all of you. It is the Wednesday edition of the program and I will say as a ceasefire has taken root in the Middle east as I speak to you all presently, the stock market has surged. Oil and gas prices have collapsed. It's almost like if you listen to us and do not panic, you will end up doing better in your life. The S&P 500 up 2.4%. A huge surge in that marketplace. Dow up 2.7% as we are talking 1245 points at the present day. Needless to say, days when the stock market goes up over 1000 points are relatively rare. Days when the stock market surges like this are not common. The price of oil and gas as I speak to all of you dropping $18 down some 15% or so. Stock soaring, oil sinking as a truce, a ceasefire is underway in the Middle East. Now, Buck, as you can well imagine, we've got some cuts to play for you. But I saw Pete Hegseth this morning saying Iran needs to notify some of its people via carrier pigeon that they need to stop firing off drones and missiles. There are still issues in Lebanon and it's not as if the Middle east is usually very calm in the first place. So you are, it seems, filled with some measure of trepidation about how long the ceasefire might last. But for the moment, stocks soaring, oil collapsing. And now you can come tap dance on with some negativity after my one and a half minute positive open there.

[Clay Ambach]

Thank you. And I'm glad that we represent both sides of the pro Trump, pro American peace in the Middle east point of view. But a little bit, a little bit of a variation here on my sense of it. First of all, I said yesterday they're going to just extend this thing, which is really what this is. This is an extension. Nothing has been agreed to that is lasting bonding. I mean, I know you meant ceasefire, you said that. But this is not a truce. This is not a long term agreement. This is a we're going to stop pounding you from the air and try to talk to you about some things and see if you will come to your senses. Now I view this play very much as a we'll see situation. But here is the downside or here is my, my negative impulses about some of this. The Iran 10 point deal that they've put forward via intermediaries in Pakistan is awful. It is unworkable.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah.

[Clay Ambach]

Their positions are we get to keep nukes, we get control and can take tolls on ships. Now in the Strait of Hormuz, America promises to stop attacking us and Israel promises to stop attacking Hezbollah as well as, I mean, you go down this list. Now, I understand this is a, as Trump says, a workable place to begin negotiations. But here is the fundamental problem as I see it. This is now a race against the clock. This is basically the timeline that Trump had for the completion of this mission. And I thought I said on the show, I think it'll be done by April 1st. OK, it's April 8th. We aren't bombing them anymore. So pretty darn close. Because the politics here at home play a large part in this clay. I do not see a future in which Iran renounces its nuclear ambitions, agrees to true, and people say intrusive, but I mean, you know, real nuclear inspections, gives up its highly enriched uranium. And if anything, I think the Iranian, the, the Iranian regime that is in place views this as a, okay, you hit us with your best shot and we are still standing. I think the Iranians believe that we, for political reasons, and that's not even really the right term, the American people will not go along with a sustained ground invasion of Iran. And I would agree with that sentiment, I might add. So that's not on the table. The American people do not want high gas prices. And that means that Republicans are going to start pressuring Trump if we go back to bombing them. We have a delay here in the campaign. Does anyone really, I mean, I'll ask you this. Do you think in two weeks we're going to have a real agreement with Iran that they can be held to and that we have faith in and that ends this thing? I have. And then what do we do? We start bombing them again? Yeah, well, then they shut the strait. The Strait of Hormuz is a real choke point. This is a real problem. Sorry, go ahead.

[Buck Sexton]

No, no, I think the question you're asking is the one that is the next step here. How much is this going to hold? And already there's disputes over what can happen in Lebanon and all these different aspects of Israeli action because Israel's been very active in northern Israel, southern Lebanon. I think what's going to end up happening is there will be flashpoints on this for probably the next six months between now and the end of the year.

[Clay Ambach]

And what do you mean flashpoints? Do you mean things going boom in Iran or do you mean mean words in the diplomatic.

[Buck Sexton]

I think things going boom in Iran, I think we'll probably scramble jets and go hit some more targets at some point in time to demonstrate that there has to be some. Some tacit relationship and agreement.

[Clay Ambach]

We just. At the. After that, though, is there some. Does Iran finally bend the knee and agree to Trump's terms? I think the answer is no.

[Buck Sexton]

There's 15 demands from our side, there's 10 demands from their side. And the two demanding lists are in direct.

[Clay Ambach]

As far apart as. This is like, I want $1 million for my house. I'll give you five bucks. That's where we are.

[Buck Sexton]

Here is what I thought was the most interesting about this. First of all, who was attributed to making the decision on Iran side? It's the gay Atolla. We don't even know if the gay Atolla can talk. We don't know where the. Did you come up with this term?

[Clay Ambach]

Is this a new term?

[Buck Sexton]

I. I'm just roll with it. I can pronounce that one. The. The son of K. The gay Atolla. I'm not sure.

[Clay Travis]

Little Mo.

[Buck Sexton]

Little Mo. I'm not sure if he's alive. I'm not sure if he can speak. But what I think he provides, Buck is a convenient repository for decision making that makes it such that whoever is actually making the decision in Iran is able to say, oh, no, no, no, that's not us. If it's a little bit politically unpopular, that is the Supreme Leader. Even if the Supreme Leader is unable to make decisions, remember, we still haven't heard his voice. We still haven't seen a picture of him. We still haven't seen a video of him. There are just reports that he was significantly injured.

[Clay Ambach]

And so I want to push you on this a little bit. I want to push you on this a little bit. Okay. Because I actually want your optimism. And I'll be honest with you, I think most of the, most of our people with this right now, they want your, like, they don't want what I'm selling. But I just, I can't lie. I'm. I don't think this is a disaster. Certainly in the market you're speaking that it's not a disaster right now. And I think Trump's going to walk away. But if you're telling me if we're looking at what comes out of this campaign. Right. What fundamentally we get from this versus what the Iranians get and what we wanted from the outset, do you believe at the end, like, make it the end of this by the end of this year, Has Iran given up the enriched uranium? Has Iran agreed to give up its nuclear pursuit? And is Iran no longer in a position to choke us at the Strait of Hormuz?

[Buck Sexton]

Okay, so let's go through the order. They basically have no air force, they have no navy. They have very limited ability to engage in any sort of aggressive act.

[Clay Ambach]

We destroyed their military. Right.

[Buck Sexton]

Their military is done, if you take at their word. And I think this is likely true. Right now we have satellite observation on all of their fuel cells, all their uranium deposits, everything that would be used to construct a nuclear bomb. And if Iran makes any effort to go and try to retrieve that which appears to be significantly buried under lots of topsoil based on attacks, we would take action as we see fit. So I think getting to the uranium, enriching it, all those things are going to be very difficult. So I think we have effectively neutered Iran's ability to impact, in a significant way, action in the Middle East. What I think is the most significant factor right now is who is making decisions and can we trust them. To what extent do we believe? Remember, go back in the early days of Venezuela, Buck, when Delsey Rodriguez came out and said, oh, they're still the American infidels. And, and then she's saying publicly one thing, but privately she's basically doing whatever we want and we're not talking about Venezuela in a significant way. Does someone have the sway in Iran? I don't care what they say about publicly in our country. I don't care if they show up and they throw their fist in the air and they chant death to America. Privately, are they being rational and negotiating with us in a productive way? And does the person who we are negotiating with, to your point, Buck, actually have the wherewithal to control action in Iran? Because it doesn't take much to blow up one of these fuel tankers. And so if there are competing factions inside of Iran, to what extent is the leader able to actually lead and control what people in the country are doing? We did this.

[Clay Ambach]

And there's a very detailed New York Times piece. Take it for what it's worth, whether you think they believe it or not. But it, a lot of it reads like what you would expect it to read like taking you into some of those meetings.

[Buck Sexton]

I read this article too. Sometimes New York Times articles read like fiction. This to you, and you've been in the rooms, but this read like an accurate telling of what the debates surrounding this war would be like.

[Clay Ambach]

Yes, it sounds like somebody who was in. It sounds to me like somebody who was in the room told them. Now, whenever someone does that, of course they're usually the hero of the narrative. And you know, you could sort of piece some things together or they at least look the most astute. But I think the New York Times piece largely aligns, and I told you this at the time, it talks about the little, the, the idea of maybe getting the Kurds involved, which they say came from the Israelis, which I know from working the Iraq issue for years was a complete non starter. And sure enough, I was right. But the fact that that came up, or rather that the reporting is that that came up in the context of Iran. There were some pieces here that make me think that this is how it went down, how their decision making process was laid out. But Clay, we keep going around. This war was fought to stop Iran from ever being able to go nuclear. Now we're being told more that it was to stop Iran's ballistic missile force. Okay, they're going to be able to rebuild that. They're going to be able to count on the oil flow to fund buying from the Russians, buying from the Chinese, etc. Military hardware to get them back to where they were. So I know that we're supposed to believe that the destruction of the ballistic missile capability is like some fantastic victory. It's a victory. I'm not discounting it. Our military did incredible things. I'm not encountering that discounting that either. But at the end of this, do we have either a different regiment or a regime that agrees to the terms with which we could go forward and say Iran is not a nuclear threat anymore? I don't think the answer to either of those questions is yes. And I just have to be honest about that. I don't think that we're in, we're in place with either of those things.

[Buck Sexton]

If the incentive structure as we have talked about on the program is for Iran to get nuclear weapons because it strengthens the ability and people in positions of power to stay there without external forces being able to remove them as exists in North Korea, is there anything that could occur that would lead to Iran not pursuing nuclear weapons?

[Clay Ambach]

Well, this is, but this is my, my concern here is that we hit them with everything we could from the air, as they told us, as Secretary Hegseth has told Us, when we annihilated them with everything we could from the air, we got to a point where it was, well, now we're just going to blow up your power plants and your, you know, your water treatment facilities and everything else. That was what Trump was talking about. Okay, well, that's. That's not a good thing. Like, that's not something you really want to do to a country of 90 million people. And if that's where we are for the next round of punishment, I don't know that we have a stick big enough, so to speak, to beat them into submission, to give us what we want. At the end of this deal, I think they're going to say to us, fine, hit us again. We'll close the straight. How long before your elections? That's my concern, Clay. I think they see what's going on here.

[Buck Sexton]

I understand that concern. I think in the back of their mind, every leader in Iran knows that we can take them out. And I'm working under the capacity that we believe we have reached for Iran. Rational leadership that does have some control over the country. We'll see.

[Clay Ambach]

I don't. I don't think we do.

[Buck Sexton]

I don't think.

[Clay Ambach]

I don't think we have a different government. I don't think we have different people in charge. I think that that is. That ship has sailed.

[Buck Sexton]

Here is. Here is the test. To what extent do any of these oil and tankers get blown up? Because if they get blown up, then everyone purely economically is going to say, we can't risk going through the Strait of Hormuz right now. I don't think it's a rational act on Iran's leadership's behalf to blow up oil and gas tankers right now. But if they do, either they are intransigent, not working with us, or they just don't have any control over the factions that are willing to do.

[Clay Ambach]

If I'm like this, the head of whatever's left of the IRGC leadership. Leadership, Clay. And Trump in two weeks, blows up my power plants. Blows up truly civilian infrastructure. Yeah, I blow up an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Like, I make this the whole world's problem real fast. So just looking at a bunch of

[Buck Sexton]

them, you could blow up a bunch of them, and it would cost almost nothing in terms of the physical assets required to do so.

[Clay Ambach]

And, and this is, my friends, this is a suicide bomber culture we're talking about here in the Middle East. Like, they're willing to take a lot of pain, to take other people down. So keep that in mind. You know how the Iranians used to clear minefields Clay in the Iran Iraq war? They had a special cadre of humans who would run to save tanks. Yeah, the martyr brigades. They would clear the minefields by walking on them. And that's what we're dealing with, everybody. All right, Sorry. Buck is wamp wamp. But I'll always tell you the truth. I have my concerns. I love Trump. I love this country. I hope everything works out fantastically. Oil prices are dropping. That's good. But we're a long way from a victory dance in the end zone here in Florida. If you don't have a very intact roof, you got some issues. I'd like to tell you roof repairs are a diy, but we all know that's not the case. That's why you got to trust professionals like Erie Home. 50 years of experience, hundreds of thousands of repaired or reinstalled roofs to prove it. Take advantage of their offer now. They'll inspect your roof for any problems free of charge using a 25 point inspection plan. If your roof needs replacement, they've got all kinds of options. At Erie Home, they've got the newest best materials. Your roof can last up to two or three times longer with what Erie Home can bring to the table. Your new roof from Erie Home comes with a 50 year transferable warranty, so that adds value if you're going to sell your house. Schedule your free [e-mail] Buck today and get a discount on the installation price. That's E r I e home.com buck this discount is maximized at $1200 valid a new roofing installation only, minimum purchase required and Restrictions apply. C rep for warranty or promotional details.

[Buck Sexton]

Preset your pals playing Buck on the iHeart app.

[Public Investing Ad]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures Time for

[Clay Travis]

a Sofa Upgrade Introducing Anabe sofas where designer style meets budget friendly prices. Anove brings you the ultimate in furniture innovation with a modular design that allows you to rearrange your space effortlessly. Perfect for both small and large spaces, Anove is the only machine washable sofa inside and out. Say goodbye to stains and messes with liquid and stain resistant fabrics that make cleaning easy liquids simply slide right off. Designed for custom comfort, our high resilience foam lets you choose between a sink and feel or a support memory foam blend. Plus our pet friendly stain resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years. Don't compromise quality for price. Visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your living space. Today sofas start at just $699 with no risk returns and a 30 day money back guarantee. Get up to 60% off plus free shipping and free returns. Shop now at washablesofas.com offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[Okta Ad]

These days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI.

[Firestone Ad]

Your vehicle doesn't just get you from here to there. It's a bridge to the people and places that matter most. It's how you show up for your family, your community and everyone else that depends on you. That's why for 125 years Firestone has been building tires with with one thing in mind to deliver products that are as reliable as you are. Firestone always dependable since 1900

[Clay Ambach]

all right, welcome back into Clay and Buck talking a lot about the Iran ceasefire. What comes next? The Trump administration declaring victory? The Iranian regime declaring victory? No surprise there. Let's hear from J.D. vance on this one.

[J.D. Vance]

Cut two if the Iranians are willing in good faith to work with us. I think we can make an agreement. If they're going to lie, if they're going to cheat, if they're trying to, gonna try to prevent even the fragile truce that we've, we've set up from taking place, then they're not gonna be happy. Because what the President has also shown is that we still have clear military, diplomatic, and maybe most importantly, we have extraordinary economic leverage. The president has told us not to use those tools. He's told us to come to the negotiating table. But if the Iranians don't do the exact same thing, they're gonna find out that the President, United States is not one to mess around. He's impatient. He's impatient to make progress. He has told us to negotiate in good faith. And I think if they negotiate in good faith, we will be able to find a deal. But that's a big if. And ultimately it's up to the Iranians how they negotiate. I hope they make the right decision.

[Clay Ambach]

There's not going to be a deal. Tell you that right now. Mark that down. There's not going to be a deal that Iran concedes its nuclear program and gives away its enriched uranium. Hold me to this one, team. It's not going to be a deal. So just get ready for that.

[Buck Sexton]

I'm curious. Well, we'll come back. I'll give you a question about this. If there was a customer satisfaction indexed in the wireless industry, I'm sure Pure Talk would finish in first place. Customer service team entirely based in the US Keeping jobs at home, but also delivering the best possible customer service experience. Pure Talk service, same as the tower, Same network, same 5G coverage as the bigger wireless companies, but for a fraction of the price. 25 bucks a month for unlimited talk text. Plenty of data, saving you a ton of money. Switch your cell phone service to PureTalk and you can keep your phone and your phone number easy to do. Takes less than 15 minutes. Just buy. Just dial. £250, say clay and Buck to talk. With Pure Talk's excellent customer service team. Right now you can keep your same phone and your same phone number. That's £2, 250, say Clay and Buck. To switch to the wireless company we trust, America's wireless company, pure talk. £250 say clay and buck. That's £250, say clay and Buck. Speaking truth and having fun. Clay Travis and Buck Sexton. Welcome back in Clay Travis, Buck Sexton show. By the way, news. We had both Clay Fuller and Sean Harris on In the Georgia 14 congressional district, that is North Georgia up near the Tennessee border, Clay Fuller winning by around 12 or 13 points. Votes are still being cast, but he has won to take over Marjorie Taylor Greene's seat. We had both those guys on Clay Fuller and Sean Harris, and Clay Fuller has won that race, will be back again in November as it's just a short period of time to be. To be fulfilling. All right, we got a couple of talkbacks. I'll get to those. Let me ask you a question, Buck. What if there is a wink, wink, nod, nod that Iran is not going to touch the uranium and we are able to say publicly, hey, nuclear ambitions in Iran are over. And Iran is able to say publicly, we didn't give up our nuclear ambitions. But there is an understanding that due to American air superiority, Iran doesn't have the ability to access what they had previously created, and that if they do attempt to do so, there will be significant consequences, but it will allow both sides to publicly claim victory. And the end result is one that we feel more comfortable with than the other. I think that's probably the most likely outcome here, is that Iran says, oh, we want at the negotiating table. And America says, oh, we want at the negotiating table. And the question is, to what extent is that public statement consistent with private actions?

[Clay Ambach]

So you think that we'll de facto get the nuclear concessions from Iran while they promise they're not going to give us publicly the nuclear concessions?

[Buck Sexton]

I think that allows Iran to save face with the leadership.

[Clay Ambach]

I don't think they're worried about saving face, my man. I think they think that they've got us on this straight or four moves thing. I think they took our best shot and they're looking at us and they're like, all right, what's next? You're going to nuke us? What's next? Now, by the way, I know we're not going to do that, but I'm just saying from their mentality, what are we going to do? Are we going to start bombing them again in two weeks if there's no agreement? You really think we're going to do. We're really going to do that.

[Buck Sexton]

So here, Yes, I think we will. Here is the problem that I see with the Strait of Hormuz. It's basically cutting their own throat if they don't allow the oil and gas to transfer through transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The entire Iranian economy is predicated on being able to sell oil and gas. One of the craziest things about this entire Military operation is they've continued to load oil and gas onto Iranian ships and transit them through the Strait of Hormuz. If I think if they are going to say, hey, we're not going to allow ships to come through this area, we don't have to allow Iranian ships out or we can go in and we can actually seize the Iranian oil and gas infrastructure. So I don't see their threat. And by the way, we've got to talk back on this. I don't see their threat as viable because they can't exist as an economy unless they're able to sell oil and gas. And their pain point, I guess the question is to what extent is their pain point necessary? I think at some point in time everyone will just say to Iran, and you were starting to see this happen with the UAE and other Saudi Arabian area countries, other Gulf countries, they oil and gas has to flow. And even there are reports that China was instrumental in getting this 14 day ceasefire negotiated because China needs the oil and gas coming out of Iran. So I don't see a world where Iran can say we're going to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and actually be able to do it because I don't think there is a global support, leave aside the United States, China has to have this oil and gas. A lot of other countries that are technically rivals of the United States, much of Europe has to have it. I just don't see a world where they can actually shut it down. Now we've got a question on this. So I understand that you don't see

[Clay Ambach]

a world where they can shut down the Strait.

[Buck Sexton]

No, we've been in that world. No, I mean there's still ships coming through. I don't think that they can. And Iranian ships have continued to come through. I'm saying we can stop Iran ships from coming through. We can shut off Iran's ability to make any money at all.

[Clay Ambach]

And it's a little bit of play. Like, you know, can can Secaucus, New Jersey shut down shipping, you know, along its waterways better than some country that's thousands of miles away? I mean, they're right there, that's why they don't know.

[Buck Sexton]

But what I'm saying is we could, if we needed to do, we could put a barricade up and we could say we're not going to allow any Iranian oil to leave. We are not going to allow them to access global markets at all. I think Iran needs oil and gas money more than we do. And again, this is a lot of people have talked about this. You know who's been celebrating the most in the United States over the war in Iran?

[Clay Ambach]

Texas.

[Buck Sexton]

Oil people. The amount of money that they are making when it's $100 a barrel, as opposed to $60 a barrel, is through the roof. And because America has energy independence, we actually as a country benefit to some extent when oil and gas prices go up now, because we are selling oil and gas on the global market and our businesses, their profits skyrocket. Now, individuals, when it comes to what we have to pay on oil and gas, have to pay more, but a lot of that money stays in the country. Unlike in 1991, when we had to go to war in, in the Middle

[Clay Ambach]

east, if we, if we were confident we could stop Iranian, Iranian ships from going through, why wouldn't we just. Why wouldn't we do that right now?

[Buck Sexton]

I think we've been allowing those ships out because it puts more oil and gas on the marketplace. If I were Trump right now, I would say they don't have the. I don't know why he hadn't said it publicly.

[Clay Ambach]

But I mean, what's more important, shutting down Iran entirely or putting more oil and gas in the global marketplace?

[Buck Sexton]

Well, I think it. I think it leads to the question of how long do you want to do it? There is a pain point, right, and the pain point is significant in a midterm election cycle. But Iran, the only way they get any money at all is by having oil and gas transit. Their ships have been transiting. Their threat is we'll hit other country ships, which is why a lot of other countries have decided we aren't willing to run through the straight of Hormuz right now and take the risk which goes to.

[Clay Ambach]

So if we have the stronger hand, which you seem to think that we do, why can't we get them to concede?

[Buck Sexton]

I think we have to figure out who we're actually negotiating with. I think the people who lead Iran are afraid that if they be. If they are seen in Iran as bending the knee to the United States, then they lose power. So that's why I think if you read this story, they said the Supreme Leader, who may be dead and maybe in a coma, the new one, the Gayetola, actually made this decision. If you go read and you. And you hear like, ok, who made the call to do this ceasefire? They are saying the Gayetollah did it. I think he is right now a fiction that people in positions that are trying to angle for power in Iran are using as the guy who's making these deals because I think they're afraid that if you are seen as being in a good relationship with the United States and Israel, it's hard to have power. So we have to figure out who actually is capable of ruling Iran. And here's the day. Maybe there's not a person.

[Clay Ambach]

I hope. I hope what you were saying is true. I don't. I don't see it that way. I think the Iranians feel like, oh, wow, we really can just shut down the Strait. And Trump just blinked, and now we get to make crazy demands, and now we go into months and months of negotiation.

[Buck Sexton]

Why didn't they shut down the Strait of Hormuz before?

[Clay Ambach]

Because we weren't bombing everything in sight. What do you mean?

[Buck Sexton]

Okay, but no. No, I'm not.

[Clay Ambach]

Because we weren't at war with them.

[Buck Sexton]

If you believe that you have this political asset and this political power, why did they not do it in June? Why have they not threatened to do it before?

[Clay Ambach]

I mean, it clearly creates pain for them, but it creates pain for us. So they. This is like. This is like, who. Who can bleed out faster is really the game we're talking about, or who bleeds out faster?

[Buck Sexton]

And I think that's why. I think it's Iran that bleeds out faster, because I don't think their world, if they aren't able to ship oil and gas, their entire world collapses within a month. I don't think our. Look, does it stink to have to pay $4 a gallon of gas as opposed to $2.80 a gallon of gas? I get that. But I don't think our overall economy is impacted anywhere near as much as Europe, as China, as many of the Middle Eastern states are.

[Clay Ambach]

Yeah, but they're not playing. They're not. They're not trying to outlast our economy, Clay. They're trying to outlast our political will. They're trying to outlast the willingness of the president to subject the American people to high gas prices or instability in the Middle east or whatever this is without getting absolutely annihilated in the midterm election.

[Buck Sexton]

Right.

[Clay Ambach]

I mean, that's what they're playing. They're not playing like we're richer than

[Buck Sexton]

they are, obviously, but I don't think Iran's economy works if they don't. If they're not able to ship oil and gas out of the Strait of Hormuz for a month, I think their entire economy collapses.

[Clay Ambach]

But that would mean. So you're saying. Because then if they're not able to Ship. No one's able to ship.

[Buck Sexton]

Correct. I'm saying that our response to them, in my opinion, should be, hey, if you're going to not provide free passage to the Strait of Hormuz, then we are putting a US Aircraft carrier at the end of the straight and no ships are getting out. That would be my response if I were.

[Clay Ambach]

They're going to have a lot of target practice on that aircraft carrier.

[Buck Sexton]

But, yeah, sure, I mean, we can restrict strict. I mean, this, this idea that only Iran has the ability to control ingress and egress in the Strait of Hormuz. I just don't buy. We have continued to allow Iranian ships out. They've continued to load oil and gas on Carg island. If I were there, and we truly think that they're going to restrict ingress and egress, and we'll see what the trans transit looks like over the next couple of days. I would say we're not going to have a rule where Iran ships can come in and out as they that so desire. And meanwhile, no other countries are going to be able to go in and out. I don't think that's a tenable result.

[Clay Ambach]

And so the reason they've been able to do that up to this point is because we've thought that they're crazy enough that they would actually blow up another country's oil tanker if they don't concede. Right. Or if they don't.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah.

[Clay Ambach]

But by the way, the regime that they want now is that they get $2 million a boat for every boat that goes into the Strait of Hormuz.

[Buck Sexton]

Correct.

[Clay Ambach]

That's, that's what they're demanding now.

[Buck Sexton]

Trump is saying we'll split the money.

[Clay Ambach]

You know, again, that's the most Trump thing ever. Oh, my God. Yeah.

[Buck Sexton]

Trump has said, like, hey, if they're going to charge 2 million, we'll take one of that and we'll get, you know, part of the money, too. Look, I just think their, their hand is not as strong because we have been pretty kind in letting their boats to continue to transit. I think it's crazy. I think a lot of people don't even realize this. They've continued to run their oil and gas facilities like normal while we've been bombing the Beijing.

[Clay Ambach]

This is why we don't have the leverage that we feel We've. This is why we haven't been able to force a concession. By the way, we went through this with Russia, too. Oh, we're going to, we're going to bring Russia. I remember we were doing the show together, remember? Oh, Russia is going to be brought to its knees. Oh, they're going to be kicked out of the international financial system. Russia can't fight this war for long against Ukraine. Blah, blah, blah, bull. Oil, gas, money talks, BS walks. Russia's been able to continue fighting this war and then some, despite all of the maximum pressure campaign.

[Buck Sexton]

Well, because we let them sell their oil and gas. So we're not saying, but so we're not actually really trying to grab them by the balls. It's a lot of public posturing, but we let them.

[Clay Ambach]

We couldn't stop Russia from selling oil and gas to China, by the way.

[Buck Sexton]

We let them sell their oil and gas to India and then we let India mark it up a little bit. It's a great business for the Indian people, right, because they get Russian oil and gas at a discount. They mark it up a little bit and they basically launder it through the global marketplace. I just, I don't believe that Iran, if we say, ok, your oil and gas isn't getting out either.

[Clay Ambach]

You got to remember Russia, Clay, we're talking pipelines, right? I mean a lot of China's natural gas comes through overland pipeline. So that's a difference, right? So unless we're going to start blowing up Russia's pipeline, by the way, I

[Buck Sexton]

think they would actually. This is why blew up, this is why Ukraine blew up the Nord Stream pipeline to try to restrict the ability of oil and gas.

[Clay Ambach]

And that, that was, I'm not sure that worked out for us the way that we had hoped that it would.

[Buck Sexton]

So, so you think, well, we'll come back and we'll continue to take your talk backs.

[Clay Ambach]

We'll see where we are in two weeks. I think in two weeks they're going to say negotiations are going great. Iran, we beat them, we won. We're going to keep talking for another 60 days. We'll come back to this. I think that's where this is heading.

[Buck Sexton]

So you think that. But the question is, in the meantime, is the Strait of Hormuz open? Because we'll find that out pretty quickly,

[Clay Ambach]

I think, I think Iranians are going to start operating like a toll business in the Strait of Hormuz in the meantime. That's what I think is going to happen. We're not stopping ships, we're just, we're getting basically reparations for the war America started. So pay us.

[Buck Sexton]

I don't understand or believe necessarily that Iran hasn't been doing that in the past. Taking, you know, there are other Countries

[Clay Ambach]

that are on the straight Clay. So they'd be pissing off a lot of their, like, it's not actually their waterways. Right. But now they're treating it like their

[Buck Sexton]

waterway, which is why again, I come back to. I think if we actually say we're not going to allow Iranian oil and gas out either, that that would change in a hurry because I just don't. That's their only economy at this point and they can barely.

[Clay Ambach]

Speaker 2% of their GDP. They have, they actually have more than just oil. It's 20% of GDP. It's a lot. I mean, I'm not saying it's. I think it's like 60% of their exports is oil.

[Buck Sexton]

But yeah, they are so inefficient even with the oil and gas that they produce that they can't keep electricity on in the country. Even before we bombed them a ton, they were stopping kids from going to school because they couldn't afford to run power and surges. I know everything else.

[Clay Ambach]

Don't underestimate their ability to suffer. All right, so you guys are getting sort of both sides of this view. So there you go. I mean, and let me just be very clear. I hope Clay is right and that there is a secret, rational group inside of Iran that will make the concessions we want, not admit to them. Get a deal going. Trump wins and would be the biggest international relations slash military strike victory in a very long time. And it would be incredible. I don't think that's how this is going to play out, unfortunately.

[Buck Sexton]

I'm optimistic. I just think that rationality at some level is going to play out. But we will see. We'll see.

[Clay Ambach]

I'm about to get lit up in the talkback. Someone's going to buck is insane. Amazing win. The biggest win ever. It's huge. Huge win. All right, fine. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[Buck Sexton]

But in the meantime, I've got to tell you, if you need more energy because you've been trying to keep up with the day to day swings and insanity of the news cycle and maybe you're still recovering from a long weekend with all of the family over Easter weekend and maybe you are sitting around and you are thinking, oh my goodness, graduation season is soon, the end of school year, summer vacations coming on and you just need a little bit more energy. You can get hooked up right now with chalk. C H O Q is the website, C L A Y is the code and you are going to get the best possible deal for the life of your subscription. Plus you're also going to get an incredible offer with Chalk Lit Powder. You are going to love it and you are going to be well on your way to having more energy, more vim, more vigor, more vitality in your life. All you have to do is go to choq.com right now, get Chalk Spring Special and when you subscribe with my name, you'll get a free 99 bag of chocolate powder with your first delivery. That's choq.comcodeclay c-h o q.com code clay it's like having your house at the perfect temperature all the time. Preset Clay and buck on the iHeart app.

[Public Investing Ad]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures tired

[Clay Travis]

of spills and stains on your sofa? Wash away your worries with Anibe. Anibe is the only designer sofa that's machine washable inside and out. Starting at just $699 plus. Anibe sofas are pet friendly, stain resistant and feature changeable slipcovers and modular pieces. Get up to 60% off site wide with a 30 day money back guarantee. Visit washablesofas.com to get yours. Now that's washablesofas.com offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[Okta Ad]

These days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere. You turn every field and every function, but without identity you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta Helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent, secure any agent. Okta secures AI.

[Firestone Ad]

Your vehicle doesn't just get you from here to there. It's a bridge to the people and places that matter most. It's how you show up for your family, your community and everyone else that depends on you. That's why for 125 years Firestone has been building tires with one thing in mind. To deliver products that are as reliable as you are. Firestone always dependable since 1900.

[Clay Ambach]

Welcome back in here to Clay Ambach. We got a quick turnaround so we can come back, maybe take some calls and talk backs. What do you think, Clay? Is that a good, good way to handle. Because we didn't get any in really?

[Buck Sexton]

Yes. I'm sure that we are deluged right now and I can see every line ringing and I'm sure we've gotten an unbelievable amount of talkback. So we'll get into those for, for the next hour and hear what you guys think.

[Clay Ambach]

What do you think about the Iran cease fire which is where things stand right now. And then also I want to talk about some immigration stuff including an effort include with a number of GOP members of Congress to try to get what is an amnesty. It's a straight up amnesty. Don't listen to anybody who's trying to tell you otherwise. It's an amnesty bill passed which shows you how quickly the GOP will betray the base. And then Clay, some wild stuff about fraud in California that's out there now. One doctor billing $270 million just in California to medical in fraud. We should talk about this though.

[Clay Travis]

Sink into affordable luxury. Annabe is the only machine washable sofa inside and out with stain resistant slipcovers and a cloud like frame duvet. Everything goes right in the wash. Plus the modular design lets you change the look of your space anytime. Visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your home shop up to 60% off site wide with sofas starting at just $699 and a 30 day money back guarantee. Shop [e-mail] offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[Okta Ad]

These days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta, you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI.

[Firestone Ad]

Your vehicle doesn't just get you from here to there. It's a bridge to the people and places that matter most. It's how you show up for your family, your community, and everyone else that depends on you. That's why for 125 years, Firestone has been building tires with with one thing in to deliver products that are as reliable as you are. Firestone always dependable since 1900

[Martha Stewart]

this is Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart Podcast. Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret. When prepping for cooking and baking, get ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper. Just lightly wet the counter so the paper grips. Lay it down and drips and spills stay on the paper, not on your counter. Cleanup is as simple as lifting it away to reveal clean counters. Effortless it is thanks to Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper. Wet it, set it, prep it. Done. Available in the Reynolds Wrap aisle at

[Clay Travis]

Walmart, this is an iHeart podcast.

[Clay Ambach]

Guaranteed Human.