Summary of "Weekly Review With Clay and Buck H1 - Trump's Tariffs Paying Off"

Release Date: July 19, 2025

In this episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, hosts Clay Travis and Buck Sexton delve into the economic and political ramifications of President Trump's tariff policies. The discussion is anchored in the surprising positive outcomes observed in the first six months of Trump's second term, challenging conventional economic forecasts and political narratives.

1. Economic Impact of Trump's Tariffs

Tariffs and Inflation: The hosts begin by exploring the effectiveness of Trump's tariff strategies. Surprisingly, contrary to widespread economic predictions, tariffs have not led to the anticipated surge in inflation.

• Clay Travis emphasizes, “To a large extent, that was occurring because of the tariffs that Trump is bringing to bear” (06:01).

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen is cited by Clay Travis, stating, “I think Wall Street, a lot of economists got wrong early on was that tariffs were going to cause a substantial price level rise, which just hasn't happened” (06:01).

Buck Sexton adds, “You can certainly say Trump wasn't as wrong as they said he would be” (06:01), highlighting the discrepancy between expert predictions and actual economic outcomes.

Balanced Federal Budget: The discussion highlights a rare fiscal achievement — a federal budget surplus in June, the first in years, attributed largely to tariff revenues.

• Buck Sexton notes, “We are balancing the budget in June, which is a very impressive marker” (06:01).

Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500 nearing all-time highs serves as evidence of economic resilience and market confidence under the current administration.

• Buck Sexton observes, “The S&P 500 is near an all-time record high” (06:01).

2. Inflation and Interest Rates

Inflation Trends: Despite tariff implementations, inflation remains controlled, with June's rate at 2.7%, aligning with expectations and contradicting earlier inflation fears.

• Clay Travis comments, “Despite the attempts of the media to pretend otherwise, the data does not appear to reflect that there is a massive impact of inflation” (06:01).

Mortgage Rates and Housing Market: Clay criticizes the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, attributing high mortgage rates to previous inflation policies under Biden. He posits that reducing interest rates by two percentage points could "unfreeze" the housing market and spur economic growth.

• Clay Travis states, “Our interest rates are too high. They accelerated too rapidly... our economy is not moving as rapidly as it otherwise would” (07:45).

Buck Sexton concurs, pointing out the discrepancy between economic predictions and reality, and questioning the current Fed leadership's decisions.

3. Overall Economic Health

Growth Indicators: Key indicators such as paycheck growth outpacing inflation and robust stock market performance indicate a healthy economy.

• Clay Travis remarks, “Your paychecks are growing faster than the average inflation rate, which means you have more money in your pocket” (10:22).

Small Businesses and Employment: The administration's policies have favored small businesses, the backbone of economic growth and employment.

• Buck Sexton highlights, “What does this mean for small businesses that are still the economic engine of so much hiring and so much of GDP” (10:22).

4. Border Security and Crime Reduction

Enhanced Border Security: The Trump administration's stringent border policies have resulted in the most secure borders in recent history, with significant deportations of violent criminals.

• Clay Travis asserts, “We have never had a more secure border and crime” (11:54).

Declining Crime Rates: There is a notable decline in violent crime rates, potentially leading to the lowest national murder rate in a generation. This success is attributed to effective law enforcement and deportation policies.

• Buck Sexton states, “The number of murders is collapsing all over the country” (14:25).

5. Political Landscape and Future Elections

Gavin Newsom's Position: The conversation shifts to the Democratic Party's potential challenges, particularly focusing on California Governor Gavin Newsom's suitability as a presidential candidate. The hosts critique Newsom's handling of progressive policies and his disconnect with broader national sentiments.

• Buck Sexton critiques, “Gavin Newsom is clearly thinking of himself as the Democrat nominee to be going forward” (22:01).

Democratic Nomination Challenges: Travis and Sexton discuss the Democratic Party's internal struggles to unify and present a viable candidate, contrasting Newsom with other potential contenders like Gretchen Whitmer and Pete Buttigieg.

• Clay Travis questions, “Is eight years old too young? ... it's a pretty easy answer question” (37:35), referring to Newsom's stances on controversial issues.

Party Messaging and Strategy: The hosts argue that Democrats are struggling to maintain consistent messaging, often appearing as contradictory or evasive, which could hinder their electoral prospects.

• Buck Sexton observes, “Democrats have to lie to voters to win” (37:47).

6. Concluding Insights

Economic Success vs. Political Critique: While the Trump administration showcases unexpected economic successes, particularly with tariffs and fiscal management, the political narrative remains contentious, especially concerning border security and crime reduction. The hosts suggest that these economic indicators might bolster Trump's standing and potentially influence upcoming elections, challenging the prevailing economic pessimism.

• Buck Sexton concludes, “It's looking really, really strong” (10:22).

• Clay Travis adds, “Economy, border, crime, it's as easy as EBC” (38:52), encapsulating the administration's focus areas.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Clay Travis: “Despite the attempts of the media to pretend otherwise, the data does not appear to reflect that there is a massive impact of inflation.” (06:01)

• Buck Sexton: “You can certainly say Trump wasn't as wrong as they said he would be.” (06:01)

• Clay Travis: “Our interest rates are too high. They accelerated too rapidly... our economy is not moving as rapidly as it otherwise would.” (07:45)

• Clay Travis: “Your paychecks are growing faster than the average inflation rate, which means you have more money in your pocket.” (10:22)

• Clay Travis: “We have never had a more secure border and crime.” (11:54)

• Buck Sexton: “Gavin Newsom is clearly thinking of himself as the Democrat nominee to be going forward.” (22:01)

• Clay Travis: “Is eight years old too young? ... it's a pretty easy answer question.” (37:35)

• Buck Sexton: “Democrats have to lie to voters to win.” (37:47)

• Buck Sexton: “It's looking really, really strong.” (10:22)

• Clay Travis: “Economy, border, crime, it's as easy as EBC.” (38:52)

Conclusion

This episode presents a compelling analysis of the Trump administration's economic policies, particularly tariffs, and their surprisingly positive outcomes. Clay Travis and Buck Sexton challenge mainstream economic predictions and critique the Democratic Party's political strategies, positioning Trump's policies as effective in stabilizing and growing the economy while securing borders and reducing crime. The discussion sets the stage for ongoing debates about economic policy efficacy and its implications for future political landscapes.