The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show: Weekly Review – Steve Hilton for CA Gov

Date: October 18, 2025
Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Episode Theme:
This episode features political analysis and election forecasting with Ryan Girdusky, followed by an in-depth interview with Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate in California. The discussions cover polling and prediction markets for upcoming elections, challenges in Democratic strongholds, redistricting consequences, and the cultural and political landscape in California.

Episode Overview

• Main Theme:
  The hosts dissect the latest developments and polling in hotly contested state-level races (Virginia, New Jersey, New York), examine national implications, and spotlight the state of California through a critical, and at times humorous, lens. Steve Hilton joins to offer his critique of California’s one-party governance and lays out his campaign themes for reform.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State Election Analysis: Virginia, New Jersey, and New York

[02:53 – 16:25]

• Virginia AG Race:

  • Polling Confusion: Ryan Girdusky highlights the lack of party registration in Virginia, making polls less reliable.
  • Polling Details: Right-leaning polls (Signal, Trafalgar) show a potential lead for Republican Jason Miyares against Democrat Jay Jones.
  • Democratic Fractures: "The Jay Jones situation...and the Spanberger running around refusing to talk about Jay Jones and also refusing to speak clearly about the trans issue. Is this having an impact or is it status quo?" – Buck Sexton [02:53]
  • Down-ballot Effects: The Jones controversy might bleed into down-ballot races, giving Republicans a chance in key legislative seats.

• Prediction Markets & Enthusiasm Gaps:

  • Polymarket/Kalshi: Clay Travis shares prediction market odds for various races, often at odds with polls.
    • "They say there's a 90% chance that Mom Donnie wins...They say there is a 90-some-odd % chance that Spanberger wins." – Clay Travis [05:34]
  • New Jersey Governor Race:
    • Sherrill vs. Chiarelli: Sherrill leads in polls, but mail-in and enthusiasm data suggest Republican Jack Chiarelli could upset.
    • Turnout Problem: "There's a 10-point drop-off from majority white districts to majority minority districts [in mail-in ballots]" – Ryan Girdusky [07:38]
    • Enthusiasm: 13 point enthusiasm gap in favor of Republicans.
    • Outcome relay: "If he wins the independent vote by 15 to 20 points...he's going to win it." – Ryan Girdusky [10:49]

• National House Control & Redistricting:

  • Voting Rights Act Case:
    • Potential Supreme Court decision on Section 2 could cement Republican control of the House for the foreseeable future.
    • "If they strike down section two...it's almost mathematically impossible for Democrats to win the House." – Ryan Girdusky [12:08]
    • Predicts Southern states would redistrict heavily, diminishing Democratic seats.

• New York City Mayoral Race:

  • Cuomo's Weak Campaign: Cuomo polling better but still failing to appeal to Republicans due to policy history and lackluster campaign.
  • "The element that...the Cuomo campaign has always missed is you need Republicans to vote for you. So, yeah, it's okay to trash Trump and they'll forgive you...but you need to offer them something." – Ryan Girdusky [14:25]
  • Political Legacy: "He has never really had to run a competitive race before...the media always defended him." [15:38]

2. Cultural Moment: Cancel Culture & Trans Issues in Entertainment

[21:58 – 23:20]

• Harry Potter Boycott & Kiera Knightley:
  • Knightley gives a neutral response to a question about boycotting Harry Potter over Rowling's views, which Clay reads as a sign the public is weary of outrage culture.
  • "You know, I think we're all living in a period of time right now. We're all going to have to figure out how to live together, aren't we?" – Kiera Knightley, via Clay Travis [23:12]
  • Clay’s Analysis: Suggests even Hollywood is moving past "woke" excesses.

3. Interview: Steve Hilton, Republican for California Governor

[27:36 – 39:39]

California Democratic Dysfunction & Campaign Themes

• Democrats' Disconnect:

  • "This is what you get after 15 years of one party rule. This total arrogance, entitlement, contempt for the truth, for the reality of people's lives." – Steve Hilton [29:12]

• Economic Reality vs. Newsom's Rhetoric:

  • Newsom brags about state size, not performance:
    • "He's always talking about the size of things. We're biggest for this and we're the largest for that, but... if you talk about actual performance... we're the worst of all 50 states." – Steve Hilton [30:14]
    • Specific failures: highest unemployment, poverty, worst reading scores, business climate, highest costs (housing, gas, insurance).
    • "There's literally nothing they can point to as a success." – Steve Hilton [30:56]

Wildfire Aftermath and Bureaucratic Failures

• LA Wildfires:
  • Massive arson-caused wildfires, but rebuilding lags due to bureaucracy.
  • "Malibu...600 homes destroyed. The total number of permits issued for rebuilding, two. Literally two." – Steve Hilton [32:05]
  • "They want people to move out so they can build apartments in line with their ideology of...density." [32:49]
  • Permits and insurance: residents stuck in a bureaucratic loop with no clear process or aid.

Democratic Infighting: Katie Porter & Party Machine

• Machine vs. Reformers:
  • Katie Porter's viral gaffe, union backing despite the incident, Pelosi’s dislike for her, internal speculation about switching to another candidate, e.g., Alex Padilla.
  • "The Democrat machine...is still run by Nancy Pelosi, who can't stand Katie Porter." [37:40]
  • Calls for change from party ‘arrogance’.

Hilton's Call for Support

• National Stakes for California:
  • "So many of the crazy far left insanity...that's been inflicted on the rest of the country starts in California. So help me beat it here." – Steve Hilton [39:17]
  • Campaign website: SteveHilton4Governor.com

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Redistricting on the National Landscape:
  "If Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is struck down...Democrats lose a dozen seats, including Florida. Florida's gonna start redistricting. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is not gonna have a seat to run in." – Ryan Girdusky [13:25]

• California’s Economic ‘Success’ Deconstructed:
  "Yes, we have the largest ag industry, but it's being crushed by their policies." – Steve Hilton [35:17]

• On Culture Wars: "I have no idea what Kiera Knightley's politics are...I think a sign that people are over the BS even in Hollywood." – Clay Travis [23:20]

• Democratic Machine in California:
  "How dare anyone think that they're going to interrupt our control of this state." – Steve Hilton [37:00]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |------------------------------------------------------------- |------------| | Opening poll analysis: VA/NJ/NYC races | 02:53–16:25| | Redistricting and Voting Rights Act implications | 12:06–14:01| | NYC mayoral race and Cuomo campaign analysis | 14:01–15:38| | Hollywood, Harry Potter, & Trans debate | 21:58–23:20| | Steve Hilton interview: California, Newsom, Dem machine | 27:36–39:39| | LA wildfires response & state governance | 32:05–34:09| | Katie Porter, Dem machine, & campaign dynamics | 36:31–38:55| | Steve Hilton campaign contact | 38:59–39:36|

Summary Tone

The tone throughout is direct, opinionated, and sometimes playful—peppered with skepticism towards mainstream narratives and “woke” culture. The hosts use humor but maintain a clear critical edge as they grill their guests and dissect Democratic strategies, especially in blue states.

Conclusion

This episode blends horse-race political analysis, wonky takes on polls and prediction markets, and an in-depth look at the trouble spots in Democratic governance—especially in California. Steve Hilton's interview doubles down on the themes of accountability and change, arguing that entrenched, ideologically driven bureaucracies are failing ordinary citizens. The hosts and guests consistently link the fate of state-level races to broader national trends, redistricting battles, and party realignments, urging listeners to stay informed—and, in Hilton's case, get involved.

For more details and to connect with Steve Hilton’s campaign: SteveHilton4Governor.com