What We’ve Learned From 10 Days of War - The Daily

Podcast Summary: The Daily – "What We’ve Learned From 10 Days of War"
Date: March 10, 2026
Host: Michael Barbaro
Guest: Eric Schmitt (NYT National Security Correspondent)

Overview

In this episode, host Michael Barbaro and reporter Eric Schmitt provide an in-depth analysis of the first 10 days of the US-Israeli war against Iran, assessing what each side has achieved or failed to achieve. The conversation is split into two main themes: what damage the US and Israel have inflicted on Iran and what Iran, in retaliation, has inflicted upon the region and the world. The episode addresses evolving strategic objectives, the realities on the ground, civilian casualties, regional escalation, and the global ripple effects—especially in oil markets and geopolitics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US and Israeli Military Strategy and Results

Shifting Objectives
- US goals have wavered between eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, regime change, negotiating with insiders, and demanding total surrender.
- Quote (Michael Barbaro, 03:05):
  "Overall, a pretty incoherent set of messages. Given that, let's focus on what we know has actually happened."
Targets and Impact
- Over 4,000 Iranian targets have been bombed: air defenses, ballistic missiles, navy ships, and drone production.
  - 42 Iranian naval vessels reportedly sunk.
  - Iran’s missile launches have reportedly reduced by 90%; drone strikes by 83%.
- Quote (Eric Schmitt, 06:06):
  "The Pentagon basically believes that they've reduced the number of missiles being fired by Iran by about 90%...and the number of drones...by about 83%."
Weapons: Munitions Shortages
- The US had to use expensive, limited "standoff weapons" initially, but now can employ cheaper, more abundant bombs.
- What's running low: missile interceptors, especially among Gulf allies.
- Quote (Eric Schmitt, 07:26):
  "What's in short supply is what's on the ground...interceptors...many of the Gulf countries...don't have enough to protect their own populations."
Civilian Casualties and Target Controversies
- Disputes within the alliance: Israel bombed 30 oil depots, generating economic and political blowback due to spiking oil prices and visuals of destruction.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 09:07):
    "Israel struck these oil depots...they warned the Americans...What they didn't know was Israel was going to blow up 30 of these things."
- Civilian deaths: estimated at 1,300, including tragic strike on an elementary school adjacent to a naval base.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 10:47):
    "Some of these strikes...they've achieved both. Maybe they've struck a military target, but they've also killed civilians in the process."
- US military says errors likely “mistakes,” not war crimes.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 12:55):
    "Sadly, it's more probably in the category of it's a mistake. War crime would be...a deliberate...target that you knew had...women and children."

2. Regime Resilience and Leadership Change

No Collapse, Despite Intensive Bombing
- Despite leadership assassination and heavy air strikes, the Iranian regime remains intact with a new hardline Supreme Leader (the former Ayatollah’s son).
- US intelligence predicted air campaigns alone wouldn’t topple Tehran’s theocracy.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 14:52):
    "There are basically no examples...of an air campaign alone toppling a government. You almost have to have some type of force that goes in on the ground."
- New leader Muenei is even more closely tied to the IRGC, signaling defiance and little hope for change.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 15:56):
    "Muenei is a hardliner, perhaps even more so than his father...It shows the influence that the IRGC...still has."
Public Response
- No widespread civilian or military rebellion—strikes on schools and oil may have rallied support behind the regime rather than weaken it.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 18:43):
    "You haven't seen protesters rise up...you haven't seen...military officials defect...other incidents...might actually galvanize the regime's supporters..."

3. Iran’s Regional and Global Retaliation

“Operation Madman”
- Iran’s missile and drone attacks have struck US bases, infrastructure, airports, hotels, and ports across at least 14 countries.
  - Notably, a March 1 drone strike killed six US service members in Kuwait.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 21:18):
    "Unleashing its arsenal...at the United States bases...but also strikes...across the Gulf region...in the United Arab Emirates, in Kuwait, in Qatar, in Bahrain..."
Intended Effects: Globalizing the Pain
- Iran aims to “internationalize” the conflict, inflict pain on US allies, spike oil prices, and force diplomatic pressure on the US and Israel.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 24:40):
    "The strategy...is for Iran to, in a very real sense, drag as many countries as possible into the conflict...placing phone calls...to Washington...asking you to do that. Wrap this up."
Economic Turmoil
- Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down, driving oil above $100/barrel, affecting global inflation.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 27:28):
    "As oil prices are driven up by this tremendous attack...all these costs [are] being passed along to countries in the region...and suddenly prices are going to be skyrocketing globally."
Allies & Regional Dynamics
- Iran is largely isolated, but Russia is providing intelligence and reaping economic windfalls from high oil prices.
  - Russia’s support is limited; main benefit is financial for Putin and potentially more resources for Russia’s Ukraine war.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 30:19):
    "Vladimir Putin is sitting fat and happy in Moscow watching that global price of oil go up...For Russian oil, that means more money in his coffers."
- Regional countries and Europe have shifted to defensive postures, but mostly avoid offensive participation so far.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 26:25):
    "Rather than sitting on the side and sitting on their hands...they're now weighing in, at least in a defensive way and bringing defensive assets..."

4. Competing Timetables: The Two Races

Military Race:
- US/Israel aim to destroy Iran’s capabilities faster than Iran can inflict pain.
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 06:48):
    "The race here...is between Iran's ability to fire off as many of these missiles and drones as possible...versus the United States and Israel's ability to knock out that ability."
Political/Economic Race:
- How much pain (especially economic) can the US, its allies, and consumers withstand before demanding an end?
  - Trump faces rising pressure as oil prices and US casualties mount.
  - Quote (Michael Barbaro, 27:28):
    "It feels like a huge pain. Point in this second race is oil."
  - Quote (Eric Schmitt, 32:13):
    "You're dealing with a very mercurial president...He could decide and declare tomorrow it doesn't look very likely that he has achieved his war goals..."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Bombing Oil Depots:
Eric Schmitt (09:07):
"What they didn't know was Israel was going to blow up 30 of these things and create this horrific image of black billowing smoke and oil depots blowing up at a time when oil, oil prices are spiking..."
On Civilian Tragedies:
Eric Schmitt (10:47):
"The biggest example of this was a strike against an Iranian naval base. And next to the base is an elementary school where 175 people were killed."
On Iranian Strategy:
Eric Schmitt (25:13):
"The Iranians have a code name for this. They call it Operation Madman...They try to present themselves as a madman and basically saying, you've got to do something here."
On the Nature of This War:
Eric Schmitt (32:55):
"I think I go back to the first war I covered, the first Gulf War, 1991, where the air campaign lasted about 44 days...What we are not seeing here is any sign of a major ground force that would go in."
On Trump Administration’s Approach:
Michael Barbaro quoting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (35:18):
"Maximum lethality, not tepid, legality, violent effect, not politically correct." Trump (35:52):
"They are toast and they know it. Or at least soon enough they will know it."
On Endgame Uncertainty:
Eric Schmitt (36:02):
"They're trying to deflect the ugliness of conflict and underscore kind of the glorification of their victory so far. Without really addressing some of the harder subjects, like, where does this all end?"

Timestamps for Important Segments

00:50–02:06: Voices from the region—firsthand account of civilians fleeing/under attack
03:05–05:04: Bombing campaign details and regime’s initial response
06:43–08:37: The “race” between Iranian retaliation and US/Israeli suppression
09:07–10:14: Targeting of oil depots and US/Israel friction
10:47–13:20: Civilian casualties, school bombing, and war crimes discussion
13:51–17:42: Regime resilience, intelligence estimates, new leadership
18:01–19:22: Lack of uprising and civilian impact
21:18–26:02: Iran’s retaliatory attacks across the region—Operation Madman
27:28–28:55: Economic pain and strategic implications for oil prices
29:26–30:56: Russia’s involvement and gains
32:13–36:26: Comparison to prior wars, Trump’s emboldened military approach, endgame doubts

Conclusion

The episode provides sobering clarity on:

The limits of air power as a tool for regime change,
The immense potential for unintended consequences—including regional escalation and global economic disruption,
The resilience and hardline persistence of the Iranian regime,
The risks of strategic overreach and miscalculation in a rapidly evolving, multi-sided conflict.

Despite massive bombardment, Iran’s government and military capacities remain—while its “Madman” retaliation threatens to pull the region and world economy deeper into crisis, even as the US and Israel try to degrade Iran’s capabilities. The ultimate endgame—and whether President Trump will declare victory, escalate, or withdraw—is still uncertain.

For listeners who missed the episode, this summary covers all substantive discussion, core analyses, and the urgent, uneasy tone of The Daily’s reporters as the war enters a perilous second week.