The Daily – Who’s Really Running Iran?
Date: April 27, 2026
Host: Natalie Kitroeff
Guest: Farnaz Fasihi, New York Times Iran Correspondent
Episode Overview
This episode dives into the dramatic last-minute cancellation of peace talks between the United States and Iran and focuses on a fundamental question: Who is actually running Iran since the outbreak of war with the US and Israel? Natalie Kitroeff speaks with Farnaz Fasihi, whose deep reporting inside Iran reveals a major shift in the country's power structure—from clerical rule to the dominance of Iran's elite military force, the Revolutionary Guards. The conversation explores the changing hierarchy, the implications for both Iranians and the world, and how these changes are influencing diplomatic negotiations.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Peace Talks Collapse and Iran’s Leadership Crisis
- [00:37–02:59] Over the weekend, President Trump unexpectedly called off scheduled direct talks with Iran in Islamabad, citing uncertainty over Iran’s real decision-makers.
- The situation remains volatile: a unilateral ceasefire declared by Trump but with no deadlines, while Iran faces a sea blockade.
- Trump publicly claims the Iranian regime is in "disarray" and that no one knows who holds the reins of power.
"And now we're in a state of limbo. There's no talks. There's a unilateral ceasefire declared by President Trump without a set deadline, and the Iranians are under a sea blockade. So the situation, I think, is very fragile."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [02:52]
2. Who Is Actually in Charge? The Rise of the Revolutionary Guards
- [03:11–06:28] Farnaz’s month-long reporting inside Iran points to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals taking command, sidelining even the Supreme Leader.
- Previously, Ayatollah Khamenei called all the shots; now, her sources say, all critical decisions are going through the IRGC.
"Every time I would ask that question from sources...who is making the decisions?... I would hear, 'it means the Revolutionary Guards.' No one said the ayatollah. No one said, it's the supreme leader."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [03:55]
- The IRGC’s influence has grown steadily for decades, moving beyond military matters into politics and large parts of Iran’s economy.
"So they really are the parallel power in Iran. And now, as a result of the war, they've become the dominant power."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [06:28]
3. The Decline of Clerical Authority and How the IRGC Took Over
- [06:46–08:13] While the IRGC had been expanding its reach for years, it only became dominant after the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei at the war's start.
- The Guards orchestrated the rise of the new Supreme Leader, Moushtaba Khamenei (the late ayatollah's son), placing someone closely allied and deeply indebted to them at the top.
"They saw the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei… as an opportunity. An opportunity to put in place a new Supreme Leader who had close ties to them, and through whom they could rule Iran."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [07:42]
4. Who Is Moushtaba Khamenei—and Why Is He Sidelined?
- [08:49–11:49] Multiple factors weaken the new Supreme Leader’s power:
- Indebtedness: Khamenei owes his position to the Guards.
- Injuries: He was gravely wounded in the airstrikes, with severe burns and amputations that, according to sources, prevent public appearances or even speaking.
- Security: He’s in deep hiding after public threats from Israel, with access and communications limited to handwritten messages delivered through a human chain.
"He doesn't want to appear weak and vulnerable in the first public address...The extent the public has heard from him has been several written statements."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [10:22]
5. How Decisions Are Made Now: Collective Military Rule
- [12:11–13:28] Decision-making has shifted toward a collective model among IRGC generals, with the Supreme Leader acting more as a figurehead—opinions are run by him, but he hasn't vetoed any so far.
- Farnaz likens it to "a board of directors," with the generals running the board and the Supreme Leader giving the final sign-off for legitimacy.
"There's a debate going on...the decision making is now kind of like a board of directors...It's not a one man show anymore."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [12:27]
6. Why Khamenei Trusts the Guards
- [13:35–15:08] Khamenei’s close, decades-long ties with many current IRGC leaders (forged during the Iran-Iraq War as fellow soldiers) create strong personal trust and reinforce the Guards’ dominance.
"The Supreme Leader now has some of his best friends, people he has known since he was a teenager...As this group aged, they climbed the ranks of power."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [14:38]
7. Structural Shift: From Theocracy to Military Dictatorship
- [15:19–16:35] This transformation is fundamental: Iran is shifting from clerical rule to a military dictatorship with a legitimizing cleric at its head.
- The implications could be profound for both domestic politics and international relations.
"It's shifting away and transforming from a clerical theocracy to a military dictatorship with a cleric as its leader."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [15:50]
8. Why This Matters: Consequences for Iran and the World
- [18:17–20:07]
- Inside Iran: Likely more repression, as the IRGC has long led violent crackdowns. Less tolerance for dissent is probable.
- Negotiations: Yet, the IRGC may prove more pragmatic than the previous clerical leadership. While not ideologically anti-American, their self-interest centers on survival and economic recovery—which could open doors for negotiation.
"The generals who are now in charge have a real interest in making a deal with the United States because they view this as survival. And that's a real shift."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [20:05]
9. Hardliner Tactics vs. Pragmatism
- [21:14–22:44] Though the IRGC uses hardline tactics (regional bombings, controlling the Strait of Hormuz), their main goal is leverage, not unrestrained ideological conflict.
- They aim to use tools like the blockade and regional chaos to gain bargaining power at the negotiating table.
"They're using these tactics because they want to gain leverage at the negotiating table..."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [22:39]
10. What Does Iran Want from the US?
- [23:00–24:43]
- Main Goals: End to hostilities and relief from crushing sanctions.
- Economic Focus: The war has devastated Iran’s already weak economy, and the regime is eager to bring back American investment.
- Unprecedented Shift: For the first time, the IRGC is inviting US companies to invest in Iran to help reconstruction—a reversal of decades of policy.
"For the first time in 47 years...they’ve proposed a detailed list of ways American companies can come to Iran and invest."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [24:17]
11. Negotiation Sticking Points: Uranium and Face-Saving
- [25:10–26:57] Key issues remain unresolved, notably nuclear enrichment restrictions and disposal of uranium stockpiles. Both sides insist on face-saving: Trump wants to show gains over previous deals; Iran wants to avoid appearing to capitulate after war.
12. The Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s New Leverage
- [27:14–27:51] Control of the strait gives Iran leverage over global shipping and oil, and the IRGC is considering monetizing it via shipping tolls—a new revenue stream broader than previous oil sales.
13. Israel: The Unpredictable Wildcard
- [28:27–29:19] Israel remains a significant threat, with a long history of covert operations against Iran. The threat constrains Iran’s leadership, even post-war, and deeply influences negotiation dynamics.
14. The Grand Bargain Iran Wants
- [29:38–30:28] IRGC leaders now seek a "grand deal"—a definitive end to the cycle of conflict and sanctions, normalization of relations with the US, foreign investment, and stabilization.
"They keep saying, we want a grand deal, we want to reach a big deal...that will be the end of hostilities and it could sort of stabilize Iran."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [29:51]
15. Are Iran’s New Leaders More Reasonable?
- [30:57–32:01] While there has not been a regime change, there has been a "regime transformation." The IRGC’s current motivations may make genuine negotiation more likely—but the situation remains volatile and unpredictable.
"On this very narrow question of whether the people sitting across the table from the American negotiating team are more motivated to reach a deal, I think, yes, they are."
—Farnaz Fasihi, [31:52]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:37–02:59: News of canceled peace talks, Trump's concerns about Iranian leadership
- 03:11–06:28: Who’s really running Iran: Revolutionary Guards
- 06:46–08:13: Rise of the Guards and fall of clerical dominance
- 08:49–11:49: Moushtaba Khamenei’s injuries and political isolation
- 12:11–13:28: How collective military decision-making works
- 13:35–15:08: Khamenei’s personal relationships with IRGC leadership
- 15:19–16:35: The big shift: From theocracy to military rule
- 18:17–20:07: How it affects Iranians and international relations
- 21:14–22:44: IRGC tactics: Leverage vs. ideology
- 23:00–24:43: Iran’s unprecedented economic outreach to the US
- 25:10–26:57: Nuke program, saving face in negotiation
- 27:14–27:51: The Strait of Hormuz as leverage
- 28:27–29:19: Israel's unpredictable influence
- 29:38–30:28: What a “grand deal” would mean
- 30:57–32:01: Are the new leaders more “reasonable”?
Final Takeaways
- Iran’s leadership is now military-dominated: The IRGC, not the Supreme Leader, calls the shots.
- This shift may bring both danger and opportunity: Expect greater repression internally, but also more pragmatic, potentially deal-seeking behavior with the US and West.
- Major open questions remain: What happens when/if Moushtaba Khamenei reemerges, how will the IRGC use new economic resources, and will internal repression intensify or soften?
For listeners seeking to understand Iran’s post-war transformation and why the peace process is suddenly at risk, this episode provides rare, deeply reported clarity into the real mechanics of Iranian power—and how this new Iran might negotiate with the world.