Will Michigan Rewrite the Rules of Democratic Politics?

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Daily — "Will Michigan Rewrite the Rules of Democratic Politics?" (August 4, 2026)

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Overview of Episode

This episode of The Daily delves into the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan, a race widely seen as a crucial test of whether progressive politics can win not just in liberal enclaves but in a pivotal swing state. The showdown between Abdul El Sayed (progressive) and Haley Stevens (moderate/establishment) brings the long-standing debate over "electability" to a head, with implications for both the future of the Democratic Party and the battle for control of the Senate.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Why Michigan’s Senate Primary Matters

• Testing the Progressive Movement in the Heartland:
  • Michigan is presented as the "purest test" yet of whether progressive Democrats can win in a battleground state, as previous progressive victories have largely been confined to solidly blue districts.
  • “If the progressive candidate wins this election in Michigan, it would really reorient our understanding of the progressive movement’s appeal in our politics at this point in time.” — Michael Balbaro [02:02]
• Electability and Senate Control:
  • The seat is essential for Democratic hopes to flip control of the Senate in November.
  • Mike Rogers, a strong Republican challenger, awaits the winner, raising the stakes around Democratic electability.

2. Profiles of the Candidates

• Abdul El Sayed:
  • 41, ex-gubernatorial candidate, former public health official, running on Medicare for All, anti-Israel (advocates cutting aid to Israel), heavy support from Bernie Sanders/Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
  • “Keep that taxpayer money here to invest in public infrastructure, public schools… It’s the corruption of our politics by billionaires and corporations.” — El Sayed campaign line [05:08]
  • Charismatic and relatable image (“Muslim Bruce Springsteen”), not formally a socialist.
• Haley Stevens:
  • 43, moderate, four-term Congresswoman, “legislative workhorse not a show horse,” AIPAC’s top-backed candidate in the country; leans into support for Israel, incremental policies, deep ties to Obama-era policies.
  • “She is the pick of the Democratic establishment... Her Michigander accent, the way she interacts with people is its own kind of endearing.” — Michael Balbaro [07:05, 19:45]
  • Relies on credentials, endorsements (Whitmer, Peters), and direct appeals to traditional Democrats.

3. On the Ground: Canvassing and Volunteer Sentiment

• Abdul El Sayed’s Campaign:

  • High energy, large rallies, passionate supporters.
  • Volunteer Mary (former UAW lobbyist, lifelong Democrat) exemplifies grassroots enthusiasm, motivated by disillusionment with “crumbs” from incrementalist politicians and desire for real change.
  • “At the end of the day, I don’t want crumbs. Like, I just want health care.” — Voter at El Sayed rally [11:11]
  • Several voters articulate that moderate Democrats are “part of the problem, too,” desiring candidates who will actually transform politics [10:08–10:44].

• On Electability:

  • Some canvassed voters voice skepticism about “woke” politics and worry about moving “too far left” [14:05–14:21].
  • The old logic: moderates are more electable. But Mary’s retort: “This is a change election… Abdul is polling at 80 plus percent in the 18 to 44 year old demographic. That demographic… is going to be the biggest voting bloc in this country.” [16:31]

• Haley Stevens’ Campaign:

  • Smaller, quieter gatherings; focus on personal connection, long-time supporters, and a strategy of steady legislative competence.
  • Emphasizes ability to win against Republicans, using even Republican rival Mike Rogers’ leaked preference for running against El Sayed as a point in her favor.
  • “Mike Rogers essentially says so himself. He thinks it makes it easier for him to win.” — Michael Balbaro [20:32, 20:45]
  • Supporters like Alyssa and Marie: Lifelong Democrats, pragmatic, care about getting “stuff done,” but acknowledge unease with AIPAC/establishment money and express frustration over growing purity tests in the party.

4. Electability Debate: A Party at a Crossroads

• Polling and Momentum:
  • Polls in the last weeks show El Sayed pulling ahead, with double-digit leads, suggesting a shifting Democratic electorate [28:00–28:18].
• Changing Mindsets:
  • In more rural/Republican areas (example: Manistee), support for El Sayed significant among local Democrats, who now explicitly reject “3D Chess” on electability.
  • “If we’re assuming someone can’t get elected and we’re going to vote for the person that maybe we don’t think will be the best one, we’re selling ourselves short and we’re selling everyone else in Michigan short.” — Manistee volunteer [31:59]
  • Voters recall holding back from Bernie Sanders over electability concerns and now feel resolved: “...this year...they were just going to vote for El Sayed. Screw it.” — Michael Balbaro [34:41]
  • Comparison with 2016 Trump voters: “He wasn’t trying to convert other Democrats. He was trying to bring new people into the process. And it worked. He won this county. And Abdul is saying, hey, we need to do something different.” — Manistee volunteer [34:56]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “[Abdul has a] Muslim Bruce Springsteen vibe.” — Michael Balbaro, on El Sayed’s charisma [05:08]
• “Everybody’s sick of this nonsense that we get every election cycle, that we just have to go for the middle of the road, moderate, boring, bland candidate that doesn’t stand for anything.” — Mary, volunteer [10:50]
• “What I wish we could do is stop with the purity tests because I think both sides are absolutely guilty of it… To really get stuff done that impacts people every day. We gotta have some bipartisanship.” — Marie, Stevens canvasser [25:54–26:40]
• “Even as they knocked on doors for Stevens, Marie did have some reservations about all the AIPAC money.” — Michael Balbaro [25:47]
• "There is no shortage of voters across the political spectrum...who are so angry at politics as usual... they're willing to just say, you know what? It's time for something new. It's time for the change candidate. Even if we are being told that the change candidate is not the electable candidate, maybe the change candidate is the electable candidate. Maybe electability is something totally new in 2026 on both sides of the political aisle." — Michael Balbaro [37:46]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:02] — Why Michigan is the truest test so far of progressives vs. moderates in a swing state Senate race
• [04:38–07:05] — El Sayed and Stevens campaign profiles and contrasts
• [08:28–13:13] — El Sayed campaign event: campaign energy, volunteer Mary’s backstory, sense of Democratic disaffection
• [14:05–17:54] — Door-to-door canvassing: voter skepticism, debate over “woke”/progressive politics, generational shifts
• [18:37–21:11] — Stevens campaign event: smaller turnout, focus on record and “electability”
• [24:26–26:40] — Stevens supporters’ endorsement as “imperfect but electable”, struggles with party divides and AIPAC money
• [28:00–29:36] — Polls: El Sayed’s surprising momentum
• [31:17–34:41] — Manistee voters: reframing or rejecting the electability question entirely, lessons from the Trump era

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Synthesis: Episode Takeaways

• Michigan's Democratic primary encapsulates the party's existential struggle: Progressive energy and moderate pragmatism collide in a high-stakes contest.
• The traditional “electability” argument is being challenged: Many primary voters are willing to support the candidate who inspires them, rather than the one the establishment deems "safe."
  • “They’re not gonna try to play this electability 3D chess… They’re going to pick the person who is speaking to them the most and let the chips fall in the general.” — Michael Balbaro [32:25]
• The outcome may signal a turning point: If El Sayed wins, it could mark a pivotal moment in Democratic Party strategy nationwide, indicating that the definition of "electable" is undergoing a fundamental change.

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Final Quote:
“There is no shortage of voters across the political spectrum… who are so angry at politics as usual, at the system, that they’re willing to just say, you know what? It’s time for something different. It’s time for something new. It’s time for the change candidate. Even if we are being told that the change candidate is not the electable candidate, maybe the change candidate is the electable candidate.” — Michael Balbaro [37:46]

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For listeners new to this debate, this episode captures in real time how a swing state’s voters are redefining what it means for a Democrat to be “electable” — with national consequences on the line.

Transcript

[Michael Balbaro]

What, what does that do to snapping?

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Oh, just no disk testing. Looks like we've already got some people going in. Just to the office? Yeah, just to the office.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Balbaro.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Hello. How are you?

[Narrator/Interviewer]

This is the Daily.

[Michael Balbaro]

They're here today to hear what Michigan

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

thinks about the race between Abdul El Sayed and Haley Stevens.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

A few days ago, my colleague, political correspondent Michael Cruz, traveled to Michigan with two producers from the Daily, Asta Chathravedi and Anna Foley to report on the most closely watched Democratic primary of the year.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Welcome to Michigan,

[Narrator/Interviewer]

a race for U.S. senate that not only tests the growing appeal of left wing populism, but could also mark a turning point in a long running debate among among Democratic voters about the importance of electability.

[Michael Balbaro]

How many of you are going to

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

vote on Tuesday, August 4?

[Narrator/Interviewer]

It is Tuesday, August 4. So, Michael Cruz, happy to have you on the Daily. I believe this is your first time on the show.

[Michael Balbaro]

It is. Longtime listener, first time caller, Happy to be here.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Well, I'm a longtime admirer, so I'm glad to have you. You just got back from a reporting trip to Michigan with two producers from the Daily. And I wanted to start by asking you to explain why in your mind the Democratic primary that's happening today in Michigan is such an important moment in this long running battle over the future of the Democratic Party.

[Michael Balbaro]

It is, to date the most important moment in this whole midterm cycle when we are thinking about the question of what the Democratic Party is and where it is headed. Because I think in Michigan we have the purest test yet of whether a progressive vision of the Democratic Party can succeed in American politics. In the last year or so, we've seen compelling progressive victories, but in a certain kind of place in blue places, Zoran Mamdani in New York, congressional primaries in Philadelphia and Denver. Graham Platner felt a little bit like a test case. But his scandals, the way his campaign ended, hard to sort of extrapolate grand conclusions from Maine. So here in Michigan, we have a race that feels like a much better, truer test of this fight between progressives and moderates. And that's because, Michael, this race is happening in a swing state in the middle of the country. Trump won here in 2016 and 2024. And if the progressive candidate wins this election in Michigan, it would really reorient our understanding of the progressive movement's appeal in our politics at this point in time.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Right. And just to put a really fine point on it, it would show that in places that we think of as inherently moderate Democratic primary voters are ready to lurch meaningfully to the left. And of course, this test case you're describing is happening in a race where the stakes are already quite high just based on the math of the United States Senate, right?

[Michael Balbaro]

This is a Senate seat that Democrats almost have to hold if they have any shot of flipping the Senate. And whichever Democrat wins on Tuesday has a formidable challenger come November because Mike Rogers, the Republican waiting for one of these two candidates, ran for Michigan's other Senate seat two years ago and lost by not even 20,000 votes to Alyssa Slotkin, very much a more centrist, more moderate Democrat. So the question of who comes out of this primary is critical for Democrats hopes this year.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

So introduce us to the two candidates who embody this latest chapter of that long running clash between the incrementalists, the moderates and the progressives who would like to bust it all up.

[Michael Balbaro]

So the more progressive candidate is Abdul El Sayed. I'm running for U.S. senate because in the state that built the American dream, it shouldn't be this hard just to get by. He's 41 years old, a former gubernatorial candidate in 2018, former public health official. I grew up all American here, became a doctor to help people and spent my career making government deliver for us. He is running on Medicare for All anti Israel platform, wants to cut aid to Israel's efforts in Gaza. Keep that taxpayer money here to invest in public infrastructure, public schools. The disease is the corruption of our politics by billionaires and corporations. It's worth noting though that he does not call himself a socialist. He's not a member of the dsa, the Democratic Socialists of America, even though he's endorsed by key socialist political figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez understood so that's his platform. But the way his vibe reads is not, say the stereotypical lefties. And yeah, I'm a bro with a podcast to dig into the epidemics America's facing of economic and health insecurity. Quite conventionally charismatic. One of his aides in one of our conversations described him to me as Muslim Bruce Springsteen. He lifts weights in his gym in his basement. I spent some time down there earlier this summer working on a profile, watching him do squats and pull ups. He is not the picture of the nerdy socialist that I think some critics might have. As it gets, I'm Dr. Abdul, Al said, and I'm running for U.S. senate. Let's go.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

So tell us about his opponent in this Democratic primary.

[Michael Balbaro]

His opponent is Haley Stevens.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I remember being handed the keys to my first car. I'm Haley Stevens and I bet you do too.

[Michael Balbaro]

A moderate four term member of Congress, she is 43 years old, so similarly aged, but much more of an old school type of politician.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

As chief of staff to President Obama's auto rescue, we helped save over 200,000 Michigan jobs and staff stabilize our economy.

[Michael Balbaro]

She has worked in various presidential administrations or campaigns. Her basic pitch is I'm a legislative workhorse, not a show horse. Incremental changes to health care aid should continue to support Israel. She is by far and away the most AIPAC supported candidate, not only in this race, but in any race ever. Wow. She is the pick of the Democratic establishment.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Growing up in Michigan meant being surrounded by innovation, ingenuity and pride and hard work.

[Michael Balbaro]

And she makes the case that she is made in Michigan. The classic Michigander. Abdul El Sayed was born and bred in Michigan too, but she has this folksy, almost zany way about her.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I'm proud of Michigan and I'll never get tired of saying it. It would be my honor to fight for you in the Senate.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

So with all that in mind, Michael, tell us about the time that you spent with both of these candidates and campaigns when you were in Michigan.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Show of hands real quick.

[Michael Balbaro]

Who was here for their very first time?

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Never came this before. Also fantastic. In fact, let's give.

[Michael Balbaro]

So we went to Lansing, the state capitol. Pretty blue, especially in the part of Lansing we were in to watch El Sayed whip up his supporters to go knock on doors around that area.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

All right, y', all, money out of money in your pocket.

[Michael Balbaro]

He came out on the stage and did what he always does with his events. Started with a chant of sorts. A call and response.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Shouldn't be this hard in the richest,

[Michael Balbaro]

most powerful country in the world to

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

afford to fill up your truck.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Shouldn't be this hard

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

to get a second bag of groceries.

[Michael Balbaro]

Shouldn't be this hard. We talked about how politicians, elected officials need to respond to their constituents more than their donors. Doctor, how you gonna pay for that? I don't know. Maybe instead of fighting dumbass wars we

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

had no business fighting in the first place, we can keep our money here and start investing in healthcare and basic services here.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

It sounds like what he's really tapping into here is a profound disaffection with modern politics.

[Michael Balbaro]

No question.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Lansing, thank you so much for moving yourself in this world. Thank you so much. So we're out for the uaw. I'm an esthetician, so I'm a Student, but I work at a daycare.

[Michael Balbaro]

The people we talk to at the event. Why are you Team Abdul?

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Everyday Americans are not being heard and represented by their government.

[Michael Balbaro]

They talk about a real disaffection with politics as usual.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Money out of politics, aipac. You know, it's obscene how our money

[Michael Balbaro]

is spent in not being able to live the same lives that their parents did.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Like, I graduated high school in 2020.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

So basically, as long as I can

[Narrator/Interviewer]

remember, things have been getting, like, significantly worse.

[Michael Balbaro]

Can't afford their rent, can't afford health care.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

You know, this is not the future I want for my kids. And.

[Michael Balbaro]

And a sense that Democrats are very much part of the problem, too.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Everybody's sick of this nonsense that we get every election cycle that we just have to go for the middle of the road, moderate, boring, bland candidate that doesn't stand for anything.

[Michael Balbaro]

And so now why vote for the same old kind of Democrat that they've voted for before?

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

At the end of the day, I don't want crumbs. Like, I just want health care.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

What is it like when this room full of volunteers then heads out and attempts to make this pitch to voters and Lansing.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Hi, how are you?

[Michael Balbaro]

So we ended up tagging along with a volunteer named Mary.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I couldn't help but notice your vote for Abdul bracelet. I've got my friendship bracelets. Finally.

[Michael Balbaro]

White woman, 70s, retired. She had been a schoolteacher. She had been a lobbyist for the United Auto Workers union. She's been active in Democratic politics for decades.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

When I went to the nudist colony to talk about healthcare story, Whoa. But I did.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

But I did.

[Michael Balbaro]

She talked to us about efforts at healthcare, health care reform in the 90s led by then first lady Hillary Clinton, when Bill Clinton was the president.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

And this guy's like, will you come talk about health care? When you pitched them, sorry, were they wearing clothes? No. But now the money in politics thing is the thing that just sticks with me and the need for new ideas and new people.

[Michael Balbaro]

She, I think, has felt really let down by Democrats that she voted for, that she knocked on doors for.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

It's like a sports team. You don't change the players. You're going to get the same result.

[Michael Balbaro]

And now is so much a supporter of EL Sayed that she knocks on door after door after door around Michigan on his behalf.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

She sees the thing that in her mind, all these previous Democratic campaigns and even elected officials have failed to deliver.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

We just need to change. Which is why I'm out here busting my ass. I'm like, this Is the hill I'm going to die on. This is the one. So here we go.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

And how did it go for Mary when she's knocking on these doors?

[Michael Balbaro]

So.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

So we're going to start over here.

[Michael Balbaro]

We were in kind of the suburban outskirts of Lansing.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Hi there. Hi. How are you? Good.

[Michael Balbaro]

How are you?

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

How's it going? Surprise. You're on Candid Camera. Kidding. My name is Mary. I'm a canvasser for these candidates. Do you think we can count on your support?

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Oh, yeah. I've actually sent in my absentee alads.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Excellent. Okay. Well, thank you.

[Michael Balbaro]

Many of the doors she knocked on were already El sayed supporters.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I know. I love them. Are you on board, too?

[Michael Balbaro]

Oh, yes.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Okay, good. He's my husband. Yes, I know. Trust me. I've got one at home, too,

[Michael Balbaro]

to be quite frank.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Please.

[Michael Balbaro]

I'm not a big Bernie supporter. We did encounter, though, some people who were more skeptical.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

What I'm seeing with the Democrats is a lot of them are going further

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

left than they used to be.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Woke and words like woke and words like socialist. So I'm not really sure what's going on.

[Michael Balbaro]

For instance, this guy John, former Republican voter, at this point, wants Democrats to take control. Not sure, though, what kind of Democrat that should be.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Well, these are progressive candidates. They've both been endorsed by Bernie Sanders. You'll see that on their lid.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

I like Bernie, but he scares me

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

a little bit, too. He's got a lot of ideas, but

[Narrator/Interviewer]

I don't know how he expects all those things to be funded.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

What about Hailey Stevens? What's your opinion on her Hayley Stevens campaign? She's taken all kinds of corporate money. She's getting all kinds of money from aipac. That is not acceptable.

[Michael Balbaro]

He wanted to know, I think, more about Haley Stevens, and he wanted to

[Narrator/Interviewer]

know who's more likely to beat the Republicans.

[Michael Balbaro]

Who would have the better chance to beat the Republican come November after this primary?

[Narrator/Interviewer]

He's invoking that classic Democratic concept of electability that has dominated Democratic politics, you could argue for quite some time, all the way back to Hillary Clinton, 2016, Joe Biden, 2020. And it sounds like is still a factor for a certain kind of Democratic

[Michael Balbaro]

voter in 2026 and supercharged by the specter of Donald Trump and Republicans who have his backing, who can beat Donald Trump and these kinds of Republicans? What is the right kind of Democrat? The conventional way of thinking about ability for Democrats for as long as most people can remember, has been the more centrist, more moderate candidate is the more electable candidate.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

So what does Mary, as you're standing with her, say to that electability question that a voter like John is asking?

[Michael Balbaro]

Mary's argument, in essence is that this is a different moment because of the

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

change people want and they will appeal.

[Michael Balbaro]

A sort of moment that requires a different kind of voting. Vote for the change candidate because this is a change election.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Abdul is polling at 80 plus percent in the 18 to 44 year old demographic. That demographic, if not this year, by 2028, is going to be the biggest voting bloc in this country. Not us. If they'll. If they'll vote. If they'll vote, absolutely. But there's a lot of enthusiasm and I think if the Democratic Party is looking at its future, it's gotta take that into consideration.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

And in that sense she's arguing El

[Michael Balbaro]

Sayed is electable, is electable because the electability question itself has changed because of where we've gotten to in politics, because of the sense that voters across the political spectrum feel like politics is unresponsive, is so irreparably broken, that we need to do something so very different. And the different candidate here, and therefore perhaps actually the more electable candidate is Abdul El Sayed rather than the moderate.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

And I can't guarantee you which way

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I'm going to go.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

I was kind of leaning toward Stevens. But one thing I can tell you

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

for sure, I don't know who I'm

[Narrator/Interviewer]

going to vote for, honestly, but it's not going to be a Republican.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

So I hope that makes me feel a bit little. It makes me feel better about November. But I'm hoping you'll be with us when you actually fill it out. But most of all, I appreciate you listening.

[Michael Balbaro]

And that's the question here in Michigan. Does electability at this point mean something different or does it mean what it's always meant, that the candidate more like Haley Stevens is in fact the most electable candidate.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

We'll be right back. So, Michael, you next spend time with the campaign of Congresswoman Haley Stevens, the moderate in this race, the traditionally electable candidate in a race like this.

[Michael Balbaro]

Right. We went to see Haley Stevens canvas kick off in a suburb of Lansing called Okamus. Could not have been more different than the El Sayed event. First of all, it wasn't a rally at all. It was at a supporter's house.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Well, I got cookies and water in a bathroom, so, you know, I got it all going on.

[Michael Balbaro]

It was barely more than a dozen people. There were more reporters and staffers there than door knockers.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Huh.

[Michael Balbaro]

She stepped out of her black suv. And a staffer started a Haley chant.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

How fun. How fun, how fun.

[Michael Balbaro]

And she did her version of retail politics.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

We got some big time people here, like the Blue Brigade.

[Michael Balbaro]

There is no character in politics quite like Haley Stevens.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

You know what? This argument of ideas, you know, to have real debates, not just on the twit. I call it the twit. That's what I call it.

[Michael Balbaro]

Just corny language.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I'm gonna stick it to him.

[Michael Balbaro]

Her Michigander accent, the way she interacts with people is its own kind of endearing. I think she understands that she is this way and embraces it. And she went into her pitch, we

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

need honest, dedicated public servants.

[Michael Balbaro]

I'm the workhorse working for you in the halls of Congress.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

What about lowering the cost of groceries? I actually have a piece of legislation on that.

[Michael Balbaro]

All of which landed on.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

We're gonna win big in November. Absolutely. You know, I mean, and we're gonna win. I'm gonna put beat Mike Rogers.

[Michael Balbaro]

I'm the candidate who can beat Mike Rogers. And her proof.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

There certainly has been consistent evidence that the Republicans want to run against a duel. Mike Rogers leaked a phone call to that tune.

[Michael Balbaro]

Mike Rogers essentially says so himself.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

He thinks it makes it easier for him to win.

[Michael Balbaro]

Says that he would rather run against El Sayed than against her.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

So electability is explicitly Haley Stevens argument. So much so that she says, look, my own Republican rival thinks that I'm the most electable. Fears me the most.

[Michael Balbaro]

Right.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I'm going to make sure that we are heard in the halls of power. And I'm going to make damn sure then Mike Rogers goes back to Florida. Thank you.

[Michael Balbaro]

So after Steven's made her remarks, we all split up. And one of the daily producers I was with, and she spent a bunch of time with two door knockers.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

And have you been in Michigan your whole life? Nope. But I've been here. I've been here 50 years.

[Michael Balbaro]

There was Alyssa.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I'm really proud to be a Michigander.

[Michael Balbaro]

She's a former librarian. Originally moved to Lansing for grad school. Never left.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Okay, so you're gonna drive? Yes.

[Michael Balbaro]

She was joined by Marie.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

A Chevy, Very classic Michigan. Yeah, no doubt about that.

[Michael Balbaro]

She's a former elections clerk.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Then I retired and I became a precinct chair. And then you said, I'm not done. I got more elections than me who

[Michael Balbaro]

just can't quit politics.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Can you tell me what you like about Congresswoman Stevens? I dislike her record, what she's done. And I feel like her moving from the House to the Senate. She's just going to be ready to run. And we love her accent.

[Michael Balbaro]

Alyssa and Marie had knocked on doors before, but this was their first time canvassing for Stevens.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

So we've got two on this side, two on that side.

[Michael Balbaro]

They got to a neighborhood about five minutes away from the Stevens event, just a couple hours before it got dark. They were dropping off a lot of flyers because a lot of people weren't home or weren't answering. The people they did talk to, though, seemed fairly Stevens friendly, including an older black man named Julius who didn't answer his door but did talk through his doorbell video camera.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Very modern.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Have you heard of her? Oh, yes. Have you voted? Have you voted yet? Not yet. I plan to vote for her. Oh, terrific. Thank you so much.

[Michael Balbaro]

Julius was a fan of Steven's. He was actually so on board that he said Alyssa and Marie could put a Steven sign in his yard.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I mean, that's like, you know, when you're canvassing, that's the thing. If you could get a sign.

[Michael Balbaro]

And after Alyssa and Marie were done,

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

and this is my first interview I've ever done through a ring doorbell.

[Michael Balbaro]

So Anna stayed back and asked Julius a few more questions about why he was interested in Stevens.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

But she worked on some very important issue with Obama. That itself is selling point. You're a fan of his.

[Michael Balbaro]

He was familiar with her work years ago for the administration of Barack Obama. Obama hasn't endorsed Stevens, but there's an association that I think still matters to a certain kind of Democrat in Michigan.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

And I think that the governor has endorsed her.

[Michael Balbaro]

He was familiar with the people who've endorsed her. Gretchen Whitmer, the governor, Gary Peters, the senator. She's trying to replace these establishment endorsements that are a bonus, a sign of electability for Julius.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

So did you ever consider any of the other candidates? Did you ever consider Abdul? Oh, yes, I considered Abdul thinking about who will have the best chances of winning the election. The general. Yes.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

It sounds like Julius is the kind of voter that the Stevens campaign is bending backwards to get. He's appealed to by the very establishment credentials that she presents as her calling cards in this campaign.

[Michael Balbaro]

No question. Her core constituency is traditional Democratic based voters. Black voters, older voters, perhaps more moderate, who still see themselves as more moderate, a much more pragmatic Democrat. Without them, she cannot win.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I think it's time to stop. I agree.

[Michael Balbaro]

So Alyssa and Marie wrapped up. They were ready to go home. But before we all left, we talked to them a little bit more.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

How do you feel about the AIPAC money? Oh, I don't feel great about it. Do I wish that she wasn't taking that money? Yes. What I wish we could do is stop with the purity tests because I think both sides are absolutely guilty of it.

[Michael Balbaro]

It was interesting. Even as they knocked on doors for Stevens, Marie did have some reservations about

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

all the AIPAC money that we've got. This real schism between so called establishment Democrats and Democratic socialists. And I find that to be a bummer because I support everything that a progressive would support. I support the platform, but somehow or another I feel like I'm relegated to a pearl clutching baby boomer, but which I don't think I am. If you support, you know, like, like you're saying like a more progressive agenda, how does that lead you to, you know, someone who is a little bit more moderate? I think it takes a lot of people to get stuff done. It's great to have all lofty ideals, we all have them. But to really get stuff done that impacts people every day. We gotta have some bipartisanship.

[Michael Balbaro]

But Marie said at the end of the day, we need someone who can win, someone who can get things done in Washington.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

It is important. Electability is important. She has the best chance to beat Mike Rogers. That would not ever be the only

[Michael Balbaro]

reason Marie and Alyssa both still see her as the more electable candidate than El Sayed.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Well, thank you so much for being so, so open. Yeah, of course, of course.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

It's striking to me that even a volunteer door knocker for Stevens like Marie, who's giving up pretty meaningful amounts of her time to do this work, is very freely telling you that she sees Stevens imperfect but electable enough. And I guess what she really means is electable against a Republican in the general.

[Michael Balbaro]

Exactly. She's thinking about November more than she's thinking about August.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

So Michael, you're describing what feels pretty evidently like an enthusiasm gap between these two events and between these two candidates. What is the polling at this point, right on the heels of the primary telling us about who's most likely to win?

[Michael Balbaro]

The polls say that he's leading. And of late, over the last couple weeks, the polls say he is pulling away. His margin in a number of these most recent surveys are in double digits.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Interesting.

[Michael Balbaro]

These are polls. Polls aren't votes. Polls can be fallible, as we've seen over the years, but especially of late, polls show the momentum with El Sayed more than Stevens.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

I have to think, Michael, that that somewhat consistent. And now at the end of this race, growing lead for El Sayed is telling us something about the chances of progressivism in a purple state. And also something about this big question of electability.

[Michael Balbaro]

Totally. And here's the thing. If we take polls at face value, it feels like Democratic voters in Michigan are ready to challenge this conventional notion that the more moderate candidate is, by definition, the more electable candidate. And we had a fascinating series of conversations with some El Sayed voters about just this shift or potential shift in a place called Manistee, which is the western part of the state, far more north in the state on Lake Michigan. Yeah.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Nice to meet you. Hi.

[Michael Balbaro]

So when we got to the office of the Democratic Party of Manistee county

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

and you're wearing an Abdul for Senate shirt, I didn't see that yet. Absolutely.

[Michael Balbaro]

So there was no shortage of El Sayed flyers, buttons, political paraphernalia, signs of support for El Sayed, Nothing for Stevens Is the Manistee Dems mascot.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Yep, that's one of them. Come on, set that pace so they can see your paws.

[Michael Balbaro]

There was even a poodle named Hazel. She has blue paws and she was wearing an El Sayed shirt.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Amazing.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Hazel's for Abdul.

[Michael Balbaro]

Little surprising because we were in a Republican county, a county that is a Trump county. Granted, we were in a small city and a blue municipality, but still not a place where I expected to see so much support for the more progressive of the two Democrats running in this primary. We wanted to watch people watch a debate between Stevens and El Sayed and talk to them about what they made of the debate.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Former Wayne County Health Director Dr. Abdul Al Sayed.

[Michael Balbaro]

So after we watched them watch the debate, I ended up asking them how they were feeling, and electability definitely came up. When people talk about electability, what does it mean to you? What makes a candidate more electable?

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

I think it means about who's more politically connected. That's usually what that sounds like to me. And it's like, I don't care about that.

[Michael Balbaro]

It's who's got a point, who do I want to lead for me, not who is electable.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

That's what I think. I feel the opposite. I feel that electability is everything because if we don't take the Senate, much less the House, we're screwed.

[Michael Balbaro]

Some of them had this question of electability still front of mind, but some of them had decided that to some extent, to hell with electability.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

We always. I've heard of people that go to the polls and they vote for someone because, well, the other person can't get elected. Well, aren't we, like, chopping ourselves off at the knees. Because if we're assuming someone can't get elected and we're going to vote for the person that maybe we don't think will be the best one, we're selling ourselves short and we're selling everyone else in Michigan short. We're thinking that we know what other people think think and we don't know.

[Michael Balbaro]

What was so interesting was listening to them get to a place where they're not gonna try to play this electability 3D chess and send the person they think can win in November. They're going to pick the person who is speaking to them the most and let the chips fall in the general.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Which of which of these candidates do you think your neighbors, your undecided neighbors, non voting neighbors, maybe even Republican neighbors, are more likely to vote for Abdul El Sayed or Haley Stevens? Probably Haley. If the Republicans are coming over, they're probably going to vote for the Republican in sheep's clothing.

[Michael Balbaro]

I mean, some of them even acknowledge that some of their Republican neighbors in Manistee county, some of the more centrist independents they know might not vote for El Sayed come November should he make it through the primary.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

But then don't you have to keep the Senate seat? So how do you feel about that, given the. I'm willing to take my chances for a guy that I think honestly has our best interests at heart, but that

[Michael Balbaro]

at least this time around, would not determine the decision they themselves made in this primary.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

This is really interesting because these voters seem to be taking things a step further than Mary, that El Sayed volunteer, who you were telling us about earlier. What Mary was saying was that she thinks El Sayed is electable. And what these voters are saying is different. They're saying maybe he is electable, maybe he isn't, but either way, we're done even dealing with this electability question in the first place.

[Michael Balbaro]

Right? And this crowd was thinking differently than they were thinking not that long ago in the last decade in how they decided where to put their vote.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

In fact, like, I probably considered back, you know, like when Bernie Sanders was running for president, way back, I thought he didn't have the electability. And now I wish to to hell I would have bought in.

[Michael Balbaro]

We did hear from people who wanted to vote for Bernie Sanders, but didn't. And this year, in a way that felt pretty different and new and distinct, they were just going to vote for El Sayed. Screw it.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Donald Trump came in in 2016. Now, he was not at all a middle ground candidate, but he spoke to people that hadn't voted in years. He wasn't trying to convert other Democrats. He was trying to bring new people into the process. And it worked. He won this county. And Abdul is saying, hey, we need to do something different.

[Michael Balbaro]

Think back to 2016. All of the conventional wisdom up until Election Day that said surely Donald Trump could not win. But clearly enough Republicans made him their nominee in 2016, and then just enough people in just enough places, the places that matter the most, made him the president. And perhaps Democrats find themselves now, a decade later at a similar juncture.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Thank you. We'll be in touch.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Thank you.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Thank you all so much.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

I love it.

[Mary (Volunteer/Canvasser)]

Thanks, guys. Thank you.

[Michael Balbaro]

I'm sorry I'm not going to be here.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

It feels like what you and Asa and Anna really saw in Michigan was not just the latest test of whether Democrats want a progressive or a moderate, but a genuinely new approach to this for Democrats, anyway. Agonizing question of electability. And that new mindset is that some of these Democrats who are now behind El Sayed have decided to stop talking themselves out of picking the exciting, disruptive candidate for fear that their Republican neighbors won't back them. And instead, they're doing this more Republican thing in the Trump era and they're just saying, we're going to follow our hearts, we're going to vote for the person we like and to hell with the consequences, right?

[Michael Balbaro]

And maybe the consequences include you do get the person you actually want and want with your whole heart. There is no shortage of voters across the political spectrum, not just Republicans, who are so angry at politics as usual, at the system, that they're willing to just say, you know what? It's time for something different. It's time for something new. It's time for the change candidate. Even if we are being told that the change candidate is not the electable candidate, maybe the change candidate is the electable candidate. Maybe electability is something totally new in 2026 on both sides of the political aisle.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

Oh, Michael, thank you very much.

[Michael Balbaro]

Thank you.

[Narrator/Interviewer]

We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. After a rocky start to his confirmation process, President Trump's acting Attorney General Todd Blanche won over two crucial Republican holdouts in the US Senate on Monday, paving the way for Blanche to be confirmed by the full Senate as soon as this week. To placate Republican Senators Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas, Blanche provided written assurances of two actions. First, that he had killed off a fund to pay Trump allies who claimed they were unfairly prosecuted by the government and second, that Blanche had narrowed the scope of a deal to protect Trump, his family and their businesses from the irs. But the narrowed IRS deal still prevents the iron IRS from auditing the previous tax returns of Trump, his two oldest sons and the Trump Organization, an unprecedented act of self dealing by the president. And health officials have reported two deaths linked to the parasite Cyclospora, which is spread through food contaminated with human feces. Both of the deaths involved people in Michigan with significant underlying health conditions. The deaths come amid the worst outbreak of the parasite in U.S. history. Health officials have confirmed or are investigating more than 18,000 infections across 45 states. Today's episode was produced by Astha Chaturvedi, Anna Foley, Eric Krupker and Claire Tennisgetter. It was edited by Rob Zypko and Rachel Quester and contains music by Marion Lozano, Alicia Ba Itoub and Pat McCusker. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. That's it for the Daily I'm Michael Balbaro. See you tomorrow.