Podcast Summary: The David Greene Show — Mortgage Monday: Fed Cut Rates, Will It Help? (Ep. 107)
January 14, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode of “Real Talk Real Estate,” host David Greene and guest Christian "the Lone Ranger" Bachelder take a no-nonsense deep dive into the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts—specifically, their third consecutive drop—and what this move means for the real estate market, mortgage rates, and job stability. They pull back the curtain on common misconceptions, the real drivers of inflation and unemployment, and bust through the fluff found in mainstream narratives, offering raw and actionable insights for investors, agents, and anyone with a stake in real estate.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Update on The One Brokerage & Industry Shifts

• Growth & Process Improvements: David and Christian share updates about The One Brokerage—expanding headcount, process efficiency improvements, and the integration of new loan officers and processors to support growth.
• Role Flexibility for Agents and LOs: David emphasizes the benefits and ethics of real estate agents working as loan officers. He dispels the “conflict of interest” myth, saying,

  "It is not a conflict of interest at all... You will give them an option. You're just going to beat whatever rates and service they could have got from somebody else." (03:20)

• Launching Real Talk Training: They announce a new, weekly, free training program open to sales professionals in real estate, mortgages, and related fields.

2. The Fed’s Move: Third Consecutive Rate Cut

• The Context:
  • The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again (now at 3.5%) to support a weakening labor market despite ongoing inflation.
  • David cautions:

    "You're probably not going to see lowered mortgage rates because this has already been priced into the market." (07:30)

• Decoupling of Fed Funds Rate and Mortgage Rates:
  • Christian points out a new phenomenon:

    "There's a little bit of a decoupling between the fed funds rate and mortgage rates that we've seen... It’s mainly because of the demand to buy bonds." (08:06)

• What Actually Drives Mortgage Rates:
  • Rate cuts don’t automatically translate to lower mortgage rates.
  • The correlation is weakening due to broader economic forces—primarily, bond demand and investor sentiment.

3. Understanding the “Why” Behind the Rate Cuts

• Fed’s Toolbox is Limited & Uncreative:

  • David and Christian break down the simplicity of the Fed’s monetary policy:

    "...They typically will look and see, well, are things expensive? How’s unemployment? ...They just adjust rates up or down in little teeny ticks to try to make it happen. It’s not creative, it’s not foundational." — David (08:55)

  • The Fed’s primary concern now is growing unemployment, even if it means risking higher inflation.

• Velocity of Money:

  • Christian explains:

    "When rates are high, people borrow less... There’s less transactions happening... The higher rates are, the less money is transferred." (10:21)

• Government Debt Incentive:

  • Christian reveals a rarely acknowledged motive:

    "America is paying a lot of interest. Right. So when they drop this rate, it helps America refinance its debt to lower interest rates." (11:03)

4. Economic Pressures from Tariffs and Layoffs

• Layoffs as the Hidden Cost:

  • Companies, rather than raising prices in response to tariffs, have opted to cut costs—mainly through layoffs.
  • Christian observes:

    "Instead... what we saw a lot of companies do is instead of increasing their gross profits, they decreased operations... usually layoffs." (13:21)

  • Massive layoffs (Meta, Amazon, Google, Walmart) signal stress in even the most stable sectors.

• Regional Effects & the Importance of Location:

  • Real estate repercussions will be highly local.

    "Location is going to drive... a huge percentage of your success or your fail rate. And it’s really based on the tenant pool, it's based on the buyer market." (19:34) — Christian

5. The Looming Real Estate Risks

• Upcoming Challenges for Investors and Agents:

  • Rising unemployment may compromise tenants' ability to pay rent and buyers’ ability to close deals.
  • Foreclosures and distressed property opportunities may increase, but,

    "...if we're heading into an economy that people don't have jobs, you're going to have foreclosures, you are going to have significant problems." (16:04) — David

  • David compares upcoming risks to 2010 but sees this cycle as potentially more perilous because of deeper employment troubles.

• Caution About Lagging Indicators:

  • David urges listeners not to wait for official stats before preparing for trouble:

    "There's a fatal error people make when they wait to see the lagging indicator before they believe that it's a problem. They wait and see... because by then it's too late." (24:52)

6. What If Cutting Rates Doesn’t Work?

• Running Out of Ammo:

  • The Fed’s repeated rate cuts might leave it powerless in the face of new crises.

    "You're giving up the only bullets you had in your gun in the first place. And if we don't see an improvement... now we're not seeing the crazy hot economy that we had last time, you're in big trouble." (25:27)

• Negative Rates and Socialism?

  • With no rate cuts left, the only recourse could be radical moves—including (theoretically) negative rates or a pivot to more socialistic policy:

    "That's probably where socialism gets introduced. That's where the whole trajectory of the country moves away from capitalism..." (29:07) — David

• No Safe Haven—but Preparation is Key:

  "There is no safe place to put your money. There is no way to avoid the hammer that's coming. You just mentally prepare... and you adapt to the new situation." (28:38)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Fed Creativity:

  "It’s not creative, it’s not foundational. It’s not creating jobs. It’s not looking for other ways to make goods or services cheaper. They don’t look at the big picture..." — David (09:01)

• On Fed’s Multifaceted Motives:

  "There’s a part of this argument that very often goes unaddressed, which is America is paying a lot of interest." — Christian (11:01)

• On Tariffs and Labor:

  "Instead... a lot of companies do is instead of increasing their gross profits, they decreased operations. So... usually layoffs." — Christian (13:21)

• On Mortgage Rate Myths:

  "You’re probably not going to see lowered mortgage rates because this has already been priced into the market." — David (07:30)

• Caution to Investors:

  "If you’re a real estate investor... I get it, it’s cool, it’s shiny, it’s exciting, it’s probably not realistic and it’s probably not helpful if they’re trying to teach you some really cool technique of swimming, but the entire ocean’s becoming polluted." — David (16:28)

• Preparing Listeners:

  "Don’t wait. Take action now so that when that wave hits, you’re the one position and you’re ahead of the group. And don’t say we don’t love you because we’re sitting here sounding the alarm as much as we can." — David (31:36)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:20] – Ethics and logistics of working as both a real estate agent and a loan officer
• [05:50] – Announcement of Real Talk Training (free weekly sales training initiative)
• [07:30] – Will the Fed rate cut lower mortgage rates? “It’s already priced in.”
• [08:06] – Christian on the decoupling of the Fed Funds Rate and mortgage rates
• [10:21] – Explaining velocity of money and how high rates slow the economy
• [13:21] – Tariffs and layoffs—why companies are cutting jobs instead of raising prices
• [16:28] – How unemployment and reduced velocity of money threaten landlords and investors
• [19:34] – The highly local nature of layoff and rental market effects
• [24:52] – Warning about lagging indicators and the risks of waiting for headlines
• [25:27] – Potential dangers of running out of policy “bullets”
• [28:38] – “No safe place” for your money—making the best of a difficult situation
• [29:07] – If the crisis deepens, what happens next?

Final Takeaways

• Short term, don’t expect a mortgage rate windfall just because the Fed cut rates.
• Watch the jobs market and payroll news more than the headlines about inflation.
• Real estate risks are increasingly local—pay attention to your regional economy.
• The Fed is running out of easy fixes; if job growth doesn’t recover, broad economic and even political shifts may follow.
• Preparation—skills, work ethic, and flexibility—will make all the difference for professionals and investors alike.

Calls to Action

• Reach out to David or Christian if you’re interested in career moves within The One Brokerage.
• Consider participating in the new free weekly Real Talk Training program.
• Stay updated and join the live discussions on David Greene’s YouTube channel.

This episode delivers a grounded, realistic look at the interplay between Fed policy and real estate, packaged with David and Christian’s signature wit, candor, and strategic thinking.