Podcast Summary

Podcast: The David Greene Show – Real Talk Real Estate
Episode: Mortgage Monday | Lower Rates Won’t Fuel Boom | Episode 98
Date: November 17, 2025
Host: David Greene
Guest/Co-host: Christian Bachelder

Episode Overview

This Mortgage Monday installment unpacks the recent changes in mortgage rates, the broader market context, and the misperceptions around what falling rates mean for buyers, sellers, and investors. David Greene and Christian Bachelder explore why lower interest rates aren’t triggering a home-buying frenzy, discuss economic forecasts, and dig into the real factors that move the real estate market in 2025.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Mortgage Market (00:00–02:00)

• Greene and Bachelder note a recent uptick in mortgage applications as rates begin to ease after years of unfavorable news.
• Investors are still finding ways to make real estate work, even at high interest rates.
  • Bachelder: “We had people buying, you know, as high as 9% rates when we absolutely peaked about a year ago.” [00:36]
• The expectation is that rates will continue to trickle down into 2026, offering much-needed relief.

2. Economic Concerns & Larry Summers’ Warning (01:33–06:43)

• Main Concern: Growing national deficit threatens stability; if revenues don’t catch up to spending, rates could spike.
  • Greene: "We are a business that is losing money every single month and borrowing money to make up the difference. That’s the reality of how America is situated right now." [02:55]
• Summers offers two scenarios:
  • Scenario 1: “If so, the current federal fiscal trajectory is unsustainable... the bond market will hit a wall... mortgage rates jumping by a full percentage point within the same period.”
  • Scenario 2: Advances in AI could boost productivity, making the deficit more manageable.

3. AI & Economic Productivity (06:43–12:32)

• AI seen as a potential savior for economic productivity and fiscal sustainability, but both hosts express skepticism.
• Christian likens AI to shoes—boosting productivity but making us “weaker” in fundamental skills.
  • Bachelder: “We’re kind of having like an existential challenge where, yes, it will make manufacturing cheaper, yes, it will make things more efficient... But those are kind of all the things that, like, give you meaning a little bit, right?” [08:50]
• Importance of retaining human judgment and due diligence in an AI-driven world.
  • Greene: “If you went back 3,000 years and you showed a human and you’re like, yeah, I have to make time out of my day to go lift weights... It’s sort of like that. Like, we have so much information that you have to go out of your way to work your brain.” [12:06]

4. The Role of Human Judgment in Real Estate (10:41–12:32)

• Automated tools (like AirDNA, Zestimate) offer value but can’t replace critical thinking or local expertise.
• Over-reliance on AI and automated estimates can result in bad investments if you ignore the “human element.”
  • Bachelder: “I think that human element is always going to be so important. Now maybe we get to a point where the AI thinks for you. I would hate that, but maybe we do.” [11:23]

5. The Real Reasons for Sluggish Demand Despite Lower Rates (15:16–20:00)

• Drop in rates hasn't triggered a demand spike: buyers remain on the sidelines.
• Key Issue: Weak job market and decreased economic optimism are holding back demand.
  • Greene: “Even if people are not... high unemployment, but the jobs kind of suck. People lost their $120,000/year job and now they’re working at Uber... So there is not as much money to go around.” [16:27]
• Historical data shows rate increases didn’t crater demand or prices in past years, which weakens arguments that lowering rates alone will spark a boom.

6. Broader Factors that Drive the Real Estate Market (19:00–25:15)

• It’s never just about rates—transfers, job confidence, equity, and market mood also matter.
  • Bachelder: “If we believe lower rates will create a frenzy by inverse, that means that increasing rates would create a winter. Right? ...Not really.” [17:40]
• Unique perspective: The hosts are agents, loan officers, investors, property managers, and see market dynamics nationwide, not just a single city.
  • Greene: “The perspective we offer is very, very well rounded.” [19:16]
• Encouragement to focus on personal fundamentals and defensive investing over FOMO or following market hype.

7. Why Lower Rates Are Causing Refinances, Not Purchases (25:37–29:38)

• Opportunity for current homeowners and investors to refinance and lower payments; little incentive for first-timers to enter.
  • Bachelder: “Dropping rates is not leading to a demand for purchasing, but it’s leading to a huge benefit of people who [own] real estate.” [28:07]
• Many potential buyers are still waiting on the sidelines, getting paralyzed by uncertainty or hoping for even lower rates. This echoes missed opportunities during the COVID low-rate era.

8. Investors’ Long-Term Edge & Takeaways (29:38–30:38)

• Early adopters and those who bought during tough conditions will reap the rewards of dropping rates.
  • Bachelder: “The people who were aggressive when others were fearful are now benefiting from the reward that they’re seeing with dropping rates.” [29:39]
• Lessons: Focus on buying quality assets, in good areas, with positive cash flow, and build skills—don’t wait for perfect market conditions.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Greene (on national finances):
  “We are a business that is losing money every single month and borrowing money to make up the difference.” [02:55]

• Bachelder (on AI and risk):
  “Yes, it will make manufacturing cheaper, yes, it will make things more efficient... But those are kind of all the things that, like, give you meaning a little bit, right?” [08:50]

• Greene (on modern skills):
  “We have so much information that you have to go out of your way to work your brain. Rather than just letting someone tell you what to think.” [12:14]

• Bachelder (on real estate factors):
  “If rates go up, people stop buying and if rates go down, people start buying. And that’s not actually what we see in the data.” [18:14]

• Greene (on market lessons):
  “Rates move, homes don’t… You buy houses where the rent covers your mortgage. You buy houses in good locations… You survive. And then to the victor go the spoils.” [30:00]

Important Timestamps

• 00:00–02:00: Surge in mortgage activity, overall market health
• 02:00–06:43: Discussion of Newsweek article, Larry Summers’ warning
• 06:43–12:32: AI’s potential impact and the irreplaceable value of human analysis
• 15:16–20:00: Why lower rates aren’t spurring a demand surge; importance of economic confidence
• 19:00–25:15: The broader set of variables influencing real estate markets
• 25:37–29:38: Current market: refi era, not a buying boom; missed opportunities and market psychology
• 29:38–30:38: Long-term rewards for early buyers, investor advice, episode wrap

Final Takeaways

• Lower rates offer relief, not a frenzy: The hosts debunk the myth that falling rates alone can kickstart a wild housing boom—there are too many other factors at play.
• Personal responsibility & smart investing: Master fundamentals, be skeptical of over-reliance on data and AI, and don’t wait for perfect timing to invest.
• Refinance opportunities: Homeowners and investors should consider leveraging current rates for better terms, but would-be buyers shouldn’t expect a return to the wild, speculative market of 2020–2021.

For more real estate insights, reach David at davidgreene24.com and Christian at Instagram: the_one_broker.

End of Summary