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A
What's going on, everyone? Welcome to Real TALK Real estate. I'm David Green. He's Christian Bastard. And we are Mortgage Monday, your favorite news source for what's going on in the mortgage world as well as your favorite lenders to help you get that loan to finance the dream of owning real estate and building wealth. Christian, how are you today?
B
Doing good, Funny timing. We're actually recording this as Jerome Pals on his podium right now. So you can see on my phone here, I'm watching him in the background. So we're not going to have a full breakdown of everything that he says today. But yeah, we'll talk a little bit about what has been said, how it affects the market and what the overall response is.
A
Yes, we will. And this has been something we've been needing for a long time. We've been talking about on this show, we've been talking about on different shows. The real estate world, in my opinion, desperately needs lowered rates. For everyone who thinks that that means that houses are going to fly off the shelves, are going to sell for double what they are now could probably not very likely. I think the majority of people who own real estate are barely limping along. And a lot of people that wanted to own it before, they don't want to own it because prices are not skyrocketing. So if you're hearing today's show and you're worried and you're getting anxious and you want to punch me in my bald head because I keep talking about how we need lower rates, hear us out on why we think that this is not going to make the market take off. I don't think that there's as much demand to buy real estate as what there was in the past because you don't have appreciation, you don't have rent growth, expenses are up. The overall economy is bad. So if I'm right about that, this is likely going to bring relief to people that own homes. It's going to bring relief to people that refinanced into a rate that was higher than it is now where they can refinance and get some savings. So we're going to talk about that on today's show. And it's also going to bring relief to people that are in the market to buy a house because they're not trying to time the market. They're just a regular person that needs to buy and they don't want to have an 8 1/2% interest rate when insurance is double or triple and all their other expenses are higher. So I'M for one, happy about this news, not just because I own real estate, but because I think the market needs it with all of the bad news that's going on. But I'm going to kind of surprise you here, Christian. What's your emotional response to this? Are you glad rates are coming down or do you think that this is a bad thing?
B
It's a good question. A lot of similarities with what you said where I think the people benefiting in the short term are not necessarily new buyers because I do think our industry is a very reactive one.
C
Right.
B
Part of what we teach and we try to get out there is for people to be proactive and get ahead of things.
C
Right?
A
Yes.
B
Unfortunately, it's not how the world works.
C
Right.
B
People usually need to hear, I can get X interest rate. Okay, I'll go start searching. But at that time, probably the interest has kicked back up and you were going to, you know, it won't be like it was in Covid. But remember when people are having to offer, waive their contingencies, offer way over asking.
C
Right.
B
That's, that's the severe example of when it really gets carried away. But smart investors, exactly like what you just mentioned, David, they, they keep track of these things. And the people who already own real estate benefit from it because they refinance.
C
Right.
B
They lower their holding cost. It does benefit them immediately. Right. Whereas new buyers, typically, it's a much more trailing indicator. It's a lagging indicator.
C
Right.
B
I'm not sure, you know, the Fed, we're already about 30 minutes into Jerome Powell's presentation here, they lowered rates by a quarter percent. So that's, it's about 99% of what was expected to happen. There was some prediction that he may cut it by a half a percent. That did not happen. But he has made some preliminary, you know, innuendos here that it's likely to continue cutting as we go into next year as well. What that means is rates will start to trickle down, which is good. Now, at any point in time, as you guys have known, who has, who have followed the Fed, you know, or followed this show or whatever, you get your advice from the last three years, the Fed can pivot quickly. And so if tariffs start to take off, we've had a very interesting roller coaster on the jobs reports the last couple months. Those of you who follow it, we had a revision that I think it went from 114,000 jobs to 14,000. So we lost 100,000 jobs on our reports. We can get in a little bit about how that recording actually can be that flawed. But to answer your question, David, my, my overall consensus is very similar to yours. If you own real estate, take advantage of it. If you don't start thinking proactively before the masses jump in, you can still get good deals. Right now, there's still offers out there. And like David said, the demand is not, you know, in line with what, with, with really what's out there, right? There are opportunities in every market. You know, even these last five years, people were buying, right? And now they're able to realize the benefit of their purchase. Even though they took those 7 and 8% interest rates, they can go get 5 and 6%, right? So they got the lower purchase price and the better rate with, you know, a year or two buffer period in between. And that's how people come out successful in real estate, right?
A
There is a, a human tendency to want to shortcut the knowledge process. People want to say, what's the strategy? Tell me what to do. I don't want to think about it. I don't want to make a mistake. Just tell me what I'm supposed to do. And I've never liked that approach because I don't see it work anywhere else in life. You can't have a healthy relationship by having someone tell you how many times you should date your girlfriend or how many times you should cook for your boyfriend. It depends on the person. It depends on the relationship.
C
Overall.
A
Real estate is full of this stuff. And one of the things that was going around for a while was people were saying, hey, buy the house if you got a good deal and if rates go down, you can refinance and you can save money. And some people said, that's brilliant. And some people said, why would you ever do that? You don't know that rates are going to go down. You should never do that. That's reckless advice. Both sides were right and both sides were wrong. From my perspective, it's a strategy that you should, you should put in your tool belt. It doesn't mean that that's the way you play the game, with one rule of just buying and hoping. Kind of like, you know, you play basketball. Christian, we played before. There's a backdoor cut that if you're guard, if the player guarding you is playing you too tight, you can backdoor. That does not mean you win every game by using backdoor cuts. It depends on the situation. And so there are people out there who bought and they felt they bought in a good area, they bought a good property, they got a good deal on the property. They had a plan of rehab and an add value. They followed the principles that we talk about that I wrote about in Better Than cash flow, the 10 ways you make money in real estate. But they got in at a high rate. That was one of the factors going against them when they bought. This is an opportunity to just add a base hit to your portfolio. You can come in and you can refinance, you can lower your costs. It doesn't mean that you're going to become rich from this, but you are moving yourself in a positive direction. And my perspective on wealth building is it's always better to take slow, consistent, reliable, maybe even boring steps like this one. So I'm going to turn that to you in a second to talk about who should refinance. But before we do, I want to ask. We know that these mortgage rate cuts are somewhat anticipated by the lenders who are giving the money on loans. So you're probably not going to see rates come down because this was just announced. It's already been cooked in. However, you did say Powell said we may have another one of them. Let's assume just for the topic of this conversation, he's referring to another quarter percent rate cut. Does that mean that now that the decision has been made and he's alluding to the fact he'll probably do it again unless things change, that we may see rates come down in anticipation of that second rate cut?
B
Yeah, very possible. And this is where people get kind of bad info because we did have a small rate cut today and a lot of people will attribute that directly to the rate cut that happened today. But it's not true. Rates are cutting. If they do, because of what he said is coming, this rate cut has been priced in for probably the better part of two months now.
C
Right.
B
If you've been following us, if you've been following, talking to us as a client, you know rates have dropped substantially in the last two to three months.
C
Right.
B
The Fed didn't make a decision two months ago. They didn't cut rates previously.
C
Right.
B
They, they announced that the likelihood is that they will cut rates in the future. That's what moves markets. What he's saying now, and like I said, Jerome Powell is not finished speaking. So we can't give a full consensus here of what, what the, the entire story tells. But he did make a decision today and he alluded that more are coming for the short term because really that's all the advice I can give. You know, I can't give you three year advice I don't know where the world's going to be in three years. Years. But for the short term, we are entering an opportunity for people who purchased in the last one to three years before your amortization gets a good chunk of the way into your payment period. It makes sense. So kind of alluding, right, to the question that you asked, David, of who should refi. If you have a primary residence right now, I would say over a 6.75 rate, that or higher, you should refi. I can get you low.
A
That's a lot of people.
B
Yeah, 6.75. Anybody who bought in the last one to three years, you probably have a rate higher than that.
C
Okay.
B
If you own an investment property that's over, let's say a half percent higher than that. So seven and a quarter, you should refi. We can get investments into the sixes and primaries are starting to trend low sixes even close to the fives on some scenarios. So like I've always said on the show, once you start getting around that 1% savings, maybe 0.75 off a refinance typically will make sense.
C
Right.
B
There's costs associated for sure. But if your break even period is very quick, one to three years and you can save the money that the refi costs quickly, it makes sense. It's a good financial move. Right now, those of you who have had your loans since COVID bad news. It doesn't make sense to refinance your two and a half percent rate. Of course. Yeah, right, right. If you're looking to cash out or consolidate like of course, there's always scenarios that make sense. But if you have your two and a half, hold onto them the best you can. Those are good loans. Right. You're basically borrowing money for free, essentially.
C
Right.
B
But those who bought in the last one to three years, reach out, talk to us primaries over six, let's say 6.75 on your rate and investments over seven and a quarter. I think it's time to start the conversation.
A
That's great advice right there and then, forgive me if I missed it, but do you think that we will and are you expecting to see rates continue to drop in the future based on. Maybe he hasn't said it on the press conference today, but it's been hinted at. He thinks it's going to continue, correct?
B
Yes, tentatively. The reason why I say that is that banks. I cannot overestimate this enough. Guys, banks are so fricking smart. They have so many models and now with the influence of AI on everything, like I Don't want to say anything is 100% known. But like they know what he's going to do. Like whether it's insider analysis or they have somebody in the Fed that's feeding them data, like banks know what he's going to do.
A
Well, you know, banks have a lot of money and they can use that money to buy relationships with people to find this information out as well.
B
And the heads of the Fed, so the whatever eight people I think it is, it's on the chair of the Fed. Obviously Jerome Powell is the big one, he's the one who talks. But there's other people who make up the chair board of the Fed, right. You know, they're people, right. They have phone numbers, they have cells, they have, they, they text.
C
Right.
B
All it takes is for one of them to, you know, slide out a little bit information, right. But regardless of how it happens or the back channels of banks are smart, that's ultimately what I'm getting at. They, they know what is very likely to come in the two to six month time period from now till then and they price in accordingly. So for instance, just to give you an idea of market movements, if we look back in let's say May of this year, let's say five months ago, right. We're going into October here. So around May of this year, primary residence rates were in the upper sevens, right. Anywhere if you were really good credit, good down payment, you may be getting seven and a quarter, seven and a half. A lot of people were getting eights, especially even further back in the year, Right. Investments were pretty substantially set in the eight percents, as I just shared. Now, primaries are in the low sixes, maybe high fives. Investments are in the high sixes. You look at how much it's come down, it's not because the Fed dropped the rate by a quarter. We did not move mortgage rates almost 2% because the Fed dropped the rate by a quarter. I hope everybody sees that they've dropped that much because we've established now a plat map, a kind of trajectory of what banks expect over the next six months. It's in place and they're pricing it based on those forecasts.
C
Right.
B
I just want to make sure that's clear. Fed dropping rates By a quarter percent does not drop mortgage rates by 2%. Right. So everybody hear that? Oh my God, it was so impactful. That means in December when he cuts him another quarter percent, we're going to be at 4. No, that's, you know, every quarter percent does not leave you a 2% drop. They're pricing in the next six months of potential likelihood of what he does, which is why we've had such good rate movements. I do anticipate to continue. My honest opinion is the bulk of what's going to happen probably in the next 12 months has taken place. That's my honest advice. And I'm putting myself a little bit out there on an island by saying that because people can reference this video in six months when rates are at 4 and say you were wrong. I think probably 70 to 80% of the market movement that's going to happen this year has happened. That's my honest opinion.
A
Well, here's why I'm hammering this point. I think a lot of people are sitting at home and they're thinking like day traders do this in stocks. It's not. I'm not putting anyone down or disparaging them, but they think the way that you described it, when rates come down, then I'll buy. Jerome Powell just said, we're dropping. Now's the time to go in there and do it. And they just don't understand what we're talking about on the show. Because I don't know any other shows that actually give this kind of information. It's not well known, not common. By the time you hear about it, it's already been priced in. You aren't outsmarting the system by paying attention to what Yahoo. Finance tells you or the market watch app on your iPhone tells you. Right? When you hear it said, the smart people heard it long before this ever happened. You're not outsmarting them, though your ego can often think it is. And so rather than trying to outsmart the system, which you are guaranteed to lose because you're outmanned and you're outgunned, just talk to your mortgage broker about what your goals are. I mean, you can listen to shows like this to get an idea, but ideally, you've already talked to Christian. You've already talked to someone at the one brokerage you've got your application in and you're just waiting to go, okay, boom, let's do it. We're at this number. And then we'll wait. Maybe, maybe in a scenario like this, we don't lock your rate right away. Maybe we say, you know, no one knows, but odds are it'll go down more than it comes up. So if you want to roll the dice a little bit, we'll wait on a rate lock. Where in other markets we might say, no, we think it would go up if it goes anywhere. It's your call. But we think that you should lock, right? Just the odds are in your favor. And as a, as a blackjack player, you understand that there's no guarantee you know what the card is, but you have an idea that the odds are in your favor of the card being what you want or not. And you play the game that way. You want to share any, like, analogies of how your blackjack prowess has bled into your ability to be a mortgage officer? I know you weren't expecting to answer that.
B
Definitely a funny parallel. For those who don't know, I have a little bit of a love and a fascination with, with card counting, right? You're not supposed to say that you do it, but it's not like it is in the movies. They don't take you to the back and beat you up, right? They don't, I promise.
A
I always heard it was illegal. People always said it's illegal to card count.
B
They can ask, you're an advantage player, but you know they can kick you.
A
Out of their casino if you're kicking their butt. But illegal made no sense. Like it's illegal to think a thought with numbers in my head. So yes, it's not illegal.
B
That's exactly right. Yeah, it doesn't happen. How it happened was 21, I think it was movie where they took him the back and they literally beat the daylight out of him, right? That won't happen, guys, I promise. But I, I, I, in the same way, you know, when you, when you count cards, you have a percentage likelihood of what's to come, right? You don't know what's on the table, you don't know what has been dealt. You don't know what the next card is. But you, you play the percentages, right? It's the same thing. It's, it's literally a one to one analogy. The banks don't know what was said today. I mean, they know what was said today, but they don't know what's immediately in Jerome Powell's mind. They don't know when he gets up to the podium what he's going to say. But they've done their research, they've counted cards, right? And they've made their predictions on what the likelihood is to happen. And they make their pricing and their rate sheets and their offers and their loan terms accordingly.
C
Right?
B
And everybody does this simultaneously. I mean, there's thousands of banks in the country, right? There's even more brokers, there's even more of, you know, direct retailer, online banks or Whatever it is, they're all doing this simultaneously, but the market moves in parallel.
C
Right.
B
It's really funny when you see like, cause I, you know, obviously I'm a broker, we have access to all these lenders get emails every morning with how their rates have updated. And it's funny, it's not like this lender's increasing, this lender's decreasing, this lender hasn't moved. If we get rate cut emails, I get like a hundred of them, right. Like within an hour, everybody, the market in total shifts their rate downwards because they get their information from the same place, the same card counters. There's like, there's a, there's a logic to it. It's not like lenders are guessing, right. Which is why I kind of made the illusion to like whether it's back channel communications or insider info, whatever it is, everybody's getting the same info. So when the market moves down, all banks move down to remain competitive. You don't want to be the one bank that didn't drop your rates when everybody else did.
C
Right.
B
And they pay a lot of people a lot more money than what they'd probably admit to. Make these predictions. Just like Vegas sports books, right. If you want to pivot the analogy to sports gambling, you know, imagine if one book had, you know, I'm a Lakers fan, so imagine if they had a Lakers the favorite to win and the odds shifted because, you know, back when I was a kid, Kobe was the big player, right. Imagine Kobe got injured and he wasn't playing that game. But you were still the sportsbook putting the Lakers at the huge odds of winning. Kobe not playing is obviously going to change those odds, right? Same thing. Even if you're, you know, far back fan. Michael Jordan, what if Michael Jordan sat out a game? The Bulls, their odds of winning probably go down quite a bit. Steph Curry with the warriors, same thing, right?
A
Yes.
B
You don't want to be the sports book that has the warriors at a huge likelihood of winning if Steph Curry's not going to play the damn game. Right. So all those sports books utilize the same info, just like all the banks utilize the same info to set their rates accordingly. And the overall consensus is that a huge correction has happened in the market. I think these next six months it, it'll trickle down. I do believe that it'll continue dropping. I think the major damage has been done, which is good. It means it's a good time. It's a, it's a good time to deal. And that's not just From a broker that wants to do loans that's honestly given the best advice as if I was getting a mortgage today. I think it is a good time to lock in a rate.
A
The good time to lower rates would have been six months ago, but too slow. Jerome, true to his name, crept along. I love how you mentioned that. There's. I think it's 12 members of the open market committee and I always picture them like Keebler elves in their tree making interest rates the way that the elves made cookies. And Jerome Powell's like the head Keebler. I think they had names. I don't remember what the QRL's names were. It wasn't Snap, Crackle and Pop. I think that that was the Rice Krispies.
B
The Rice Krispie Kids.
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, let's get into this article and then we'll talk about what people should do that are following the real estate world in response to mounting warning signs from the labor market. You think the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in nine months. Economists and investors expect Fed chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the FM FOMC to cut the central bank's overnight rate by a quarter point Wednesday, which is what happened in anticipation of the move. The average 30 year fixed rate reaches an 11 month low of 6.35. All right, Christian, let me ask you. As we're reading this, I often see different people post interest rates. Different articles will say rates are 6.35. They don't tell you where they're coming up with that. Okay, when a layperson reads this, should they assume all banks are at 6.35? Should they assume one bank's at 6.35? One might be at 6, one might be at 6.5. How should numbers like that be understood when you're reading the news?
B
Yeah, good question. I get this question all the time. It's a good one and I'm glad we have the opportunity to talk about it. Every single one of these non lender, you know this is coming from whatever ex news source, whatever. All of them utilize the going 30, 30 year rate which is typically projected by a 20% down primary residence. So a lot of people call me all the time, hey, I heard rates are 6.35 but I'm quoting an investment property at 7. Yeah, rates are at 6.35 if you go live in the damn house. Right. That's primary residence loans at a usually 740 or higher FICO score with a 20% down.
C
Payment.
B
Now, if you did that loan with us today, we're probably six to six and a quarter. We are typically below where market is as a brokerage, we do that intentionally. We want it to be competitive.
C
Right.
B
What that does is they basically take a brief survey across, you know, maybe 15 or 20 of the nationwide, you know, popular lenders. Rocket Mortgage, UW Freedom Bank, US Bank, Chase.
C
Right.
B
And they get a consensus of just where they're going. Market rate is. That's usually what that is. But they price them all, usually with a 20% down. Primary residence, 740 and higher FICO score.
A
Okay, thank you for that. When somebody reaches out to us and they say, I heard rates are 6.35. What's your guys's rates? How are we counseling them what their rates are? Because as we've talked about before, your rate is often dependent on how much money you want to put into the deal to get it higher.
B
Yeah, good question. First thing you should always ask is not what your rates are. You being the lender, you should ask, what is my rate going to be? I don't have rates for everybody. I have your rate. I have the rate that you can be offered based on your qualification and your credit and your down payment and the purchase price and the whole shebam.
C
Right.
B
Rates are specific to people. What this is, it's the only thing they can post. It's not like a news article is going to price out your scenario.
C
Right.
B
That's what brokers are for.
C
Right.
B
If you reach out, never ask a broker or a lender what their rates are. Ask them what my rate will be for my loan. I'm looking to buy an investment property at 20% down with a 745. Cool. We can price out that scenario. But I'm never just going to tell you our rates are six and a quarter.
A
Well, should they ask for the par rate, how do they know if they're getting quoted an unrealistic number?
B
Good question. Yeah. A lot of banks right now will probably be marketing five and a half. It probably will happen. Absolutely. They will. Market rates in the mid fives.
A
And that's because you could, you could theoretically get it to five and a half if you have closing costs of a crazy high number.
C
Right?
B
That's exactly right.
C
Yeah.
B
Just because where the going rate is, it doesn't mean you can't get a rate higher or lower than that. And those who have watched previous episodes of Mortgage Mondays and watched us go through a rate sheet and a loan estimate, you see, you know from history. If you haven't, go check out those videos, I highly recommend them. But if you have, you know, rates are not like you don't just get one rate. You typically get access to a rate sheet where you can buy points down, right? And that means you pay increased closing costs to get a lower rate. Or you can take what we refer to as the par rate, which is the rate with no points.
C
Right?
A
Okay, here's something else I thought was really fascinating with this article. It mentions that the financial markets have Already priced in 325 basis point Fed cuts before the end of the year and three further cuts of that size by the end of next year. Okay? So to your point earlier that these guys are smart, they're reading the tea leaves and saying, hey, they're going to continue to cut rates. So we're going to get ahead of it and we're going to price our, the rate we're offering to borrowers low. If people listening are thinking, well, I'll wait because as you guys just said, they're probably going to come down. Would are, would they already. Is that a bad idea? Because these are already priced in and really the only way for rates to go is up. If they've already anticipated three rate cuts going into 20, 26, 100%.
B
And that's why I said I, my number that I'm kind of arbitrarily putting on it is 75 to 80% of the rate cuts that are going to happen in the next year have happened. That's kind of what I'm willing putting my stake in the ground on, right? So there's still potentially 20% you could take advantage of if you wait, if you pick the right day. But then you get into the timing the market, right? And it's possible you go wrong there. It's possible you wait too long and then you have five or six competitors on the offer you have to write and you have to write 50k over offer to get, to get the property, right? So it's a very delicate balance. If 80% of the damage has been done, if I tell you guys right now that you can go buy, you know, a, a Ford Ranger or whatever car you're looking at and you can get 80% of the cheapest price, it's pretty good, right? So it's probably something that a lot of people that would be enough of a crack in the pricing to pull the trigger, right? It's the people who say, oh well, I want the absolute best deal on the absolute best day that probably never end. Up with a car.
A
Right?
C
Right.
B
Same concept. You probably will never end up with a house if you're looking for the absolute best rate on the absolute best day.
C
Right.
B
On the absolute best house at the absolute best price. Like typically, those things don't all come together.
A
Yeah, I've never heard a real estate investor who told me all those details 30 years after they bought the house, they don't know. What they know is they bought a house for $40,000 that's now worth $380,000.
B
That's right.
A
And they're very happy that they bought it. So.
B
But could they have gotten it for 39,000? If they waited a week, maybe.
A
Could they've got that rate an eighth of a point lower? Yes, that's the point here. It's not like you should be reckless. You should pay attention to it. We want you to pay attention. That's why we make a show for you every week. It's that, that should not stop you from looking at the big things like owning the real estate, owning it in a good area, paying a good price for it, having it in a place where your tenants are going to take care of it and you're going to pay that mortgage off over time. Because I don't know many investors that have the same rate for 30 years anyways. If we're just being frank, that's like over a long period of time. They go up, they go down. When they go up, you leave it alone. When they go down, you usually refinance. That's one of the cool things about a 30 year fixed rate. It functions like a ratchet, like a socket wrench. It only goes in one direction. If it goes against you, it doesn't hurt you. You just wait. If it goes for you, it can help you. And that is something to keep in mind when making these decisions. Where, like, should I go? Should I wait? Should I do it now, should I do it later? Man, if you just know, well, if I don't get the perfect time right now, in five years, I might, then I'll just refinance then and they might come down again after that. And then if you play the game that way, you probably are sitting on a 2.9 and you're never going to refinance it again. And you bought a bunch of other houses. You're waiting for rates to come down on those ones. So, man, I'm so glad we have something positive to talk about today. It was just taking it in the shorts for real estate investors over and over and over. Christian if people want to reach out to you, they want to talk about refinancing their house, or if they know somebody who needs to hear this, who maybe doesn't follow Mortgage Monday, where can they go to get ahold of you?
B
Yeah, first and foremost, subscribe to Mortgage Mondays, right? Leave comments on the YouTube. We reread them. Guys, I promise it's actually me responding in the comments. Try to get to everyone that I can. Obviously, if you want to reach out to us directly about your specific situation, the1brokerage.com is a great place to just find out about what the company does and get in touch. If you want to talk to me directly, best way is usually on Instagram @the1broker is my handle. I mean, you just slide into the DMS as they say, right? Ask me a question, give me your scenario, give me what you want to talk about. If it's something that you want to schedule a call for, we'll absolutely do it. If it's something I can answer and not a problem.
A
And if you want to get a hold of me, you can go to davidgreen24.com, use the chat option. Several people have done that since they've heard this. And I get is this really David? Every single time. And they will tell you, yes, it's really me. I give them a personalized joke that only I could have come up with an analogy meant to them as a. As my two factor authentication. So reach out to me. Let me know what you want. If you reach out to Christian directly, you may get ahold of them. It may be a little bit harder. He's busy servicing all of our clients as well as running the entire company with me. So don't take it personal. For those of you that have reached out to me, I really appreciate it when you guys make that effort. Thank you for that. We, we want to hear from you Also, if you know anyone in the mortgage business that's I got half of a brain, we'd love to give them the rest of their brain and turn them into a really good loan officer. So we are hiring new loan officers. We're one of the few companies that has too much work and not enough people when everybody else is pretty much in the opposite stake. So please let us know. You can send me an email, send me a dm, or you can reach out to me on the website if you've got somebody. Any last words, Christian, before I let you go?
B
No, I think we're good.
C
We'll.
B
We'll make follow up posts kind of breaking down Jerome Pals full breakdown. As I said, we were recording this while he was halfway through, but I think the the gist of what was said we covered. I'm excited for it. It's a, it's a good time to get your mind back into real estate. Odds are kind of swinging back in our favor. And it's, it's exciting because it's been a long time coming. You know, it hasn't really been a fun, exciting time to be a real estate investor really, since COVID and the few months after, it's been a tough go. With rates at seven and a half, eight and a half, nine percent for the last two, three years.
C
Right.
B
I mean, things are finally starting to swing a little bit more in our favor, which is a good thing for the industry. Good thing for Mortgage Mondays, good thing for the listeners. And we're excited to be here, ready and willing to help.
C
There you go.
A
You can also get clips of these shows as well as the other podcasts on the Real Talk Real Estate network. He's at the 1/ broker on Instagram and I am @ David Green, 24. We'll see you guys next week on Mortgage Monday.
Date: September 22, 2025
Host: David Greene
Guest: Christian (last name bleeped, mortgage expert)
In this “Mortgage Monday” installment of Real Talk Real Estate, David Greene and Christian break down the latest Federal Reserve rate cut and its impact on the real estate and mortgage markets. They examine who benefits most from lower rates, demystify common misconceptions about timing the market, and offer actionable advice for homeowners and investors contemplating refinancing or new purchases. The tone is conversational, practical, and packed with analogies that make complex financial concepts relatable.
“I think the market needs [rate cuts] with all of the bad news that’s going on.” [00:31]
“This rate cut has been priced in for probably the better part of two months now.” [06:54]
“Banks are so fricking smart. They have so many models and now with the influence of AI on everything…they know what [Powell is] going to do.” [09:34]
“Rather than trying to outsmart the system, which you are guaranteed to lose because you’re outmanned and you’re outgunned, just talk to your mortgage broker about what your goals are.” [12:20]
“When you count cards, you have a percentage likelihood of what's to come…You play the percentages. It's literally a one-to-one analogy.” [14:32]
“I think probably 70 to 80% of the market movement that's going to happen this year has happened.” [11:31]
“If you have a primary residence right now…I would say over a 6.75 rate, that or higher, you should refi.” [08:10]
“Real estate is about the fundamentals: good area, good property, deal makes sense…The rate, over a long time, usually works itself out.” [23:38]
Lower mortgage rates are good news—but don’t expect a buying frenzy or dramatically better deals just by watching headlines. Act with perspective, consult experts, and focus on sound fundamentals for long-term wealth in real estate. Most importantly: Don’t wait for perfection. “You probably will never end up with a house if you're looking for the absolute best rate on the absolute best day.”
— Christian [23:28]