The David Greene Show – Mortgage Monday | This Week’s Update | Episode 84
Date: September 22, 2025
Host: David Greene
Guest: Christian (last name bleeped, mortgage expert)
Episode Overview
In this “Mortgage Monday” installment of Real Talk Real Estate, David Greene and Christian break down the latest Federal Reserve rate cut and its impact on the real estate and mortgage markets. They examine who benefits most from lower rates, demystify common misconceptions about timing the market, and offer actionable advice for homeowners and investors contemplating refinancing or new purchases. The tone is conversational, practical, and packed with analogies that make complex financial concepts relatable.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Fed Rate Cut: What Actually Happened and What It Means
- [00:15] The episode is recorded live as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announces a 0.25% rate cut.
- Christian: “They lowered rates by a quarter percent…there was some prediction that he may cut it by a half a percent. That did not happen.”
- Further rate cuts are signaled for the coming year, but Christian reminds listeners that markets often react in anticipation of these moves.
- David clarifies that while rate cuts are welcomed, they’re not likely to reignite a hot housing market right away.
- [00:31] David: “I think the majority of people who own real estate are barely limping along…this is likely going to bring relief to people that own homes…not going to make the market take off.”
2. Who Benefits Most from Lower Rates
- [01:57] Christian explains the real winners: existing homeowners who can now refinance at a lower cost, and proactive investors who’ve been waiting:
- “The people benefiting in the short term are not necessarily new buyers…those who already own real estate benefit from it because they refinance. They lower their holding cost. It does benefit them immediately.”
- New buyers may eventually benefit, but rate changes are a lagging indicator for purchases.
3. Timing, Proactiveness, and Market Realities
- [04:27] David highlights the problem with “shortcut thinking” and emphasizes strategic, long-term wealth building over chasing headlines.
- “People want to say, what's the strategy? Tell me what to do. I don't want to think about it…Real estate is full of this stuff.”
- Not every piece of advice applies universally—context matters, just like in relationships or sports strategies.
4. How Bank Pricing Works: The Real Story Behind Mortgage Rates
- [06:54] Christian debunks the idea that rate cuts instantly drop mortgage rates:
- “This rate cut has been priced in for probably the better part of two months now.”
- Banks price loans based on forecasts and expectations, not just the official Fed move.
- “Fed dropping rates by a quarter percent does not drop mortgage rates by 2%.”
- [10:19] Banks use advanced modeling (and, jokingly, ‘back channels’) to anticipate Fed moves and price accordingly.
- [15:35] All banks move almost in unison: “It’s funny, it’s not like this lender’s increasing, this lender’s decreasing…If we get rate cut emails, I get like a hundred of them, right, like within an hour, everybody, the market in total shifts their rate downwards.”
5. Practical Advice: Who Should Consider Refinancing?
- [08:10] Christian gives a simple guideline:
- Homeowners with rates over 6.75% (primary residence): consider refinancing
- Investors with rates over 7.25%: consider refinancing
- “Once you start getting around that 1% savings, maybe 0.75 off a refinance typically will make sense.”
- No need to touch ultra-low COVID-era rates; “If you have your two and a half, hold onto them the best you can.”
- Break-even period for refi costs: aim for a 1–3 year return.
6. Don’t Try to Time the Market: Why Most People Are Too Late
- [12:20] By the time news hits, sharp investors and banks have already acted.
- David: “You aren't outsmarting the system by paying attention to what Yahoo Finance tells you…By the time you hear about it, it’s already been priced in.”
7. Analogies: Blackjack and Sports Betting for Mortgage Markets
- [14:02] Christian, an avid card counter, likens banks’ market movement to blackjack:
- “You play the percentages…It’s literally a one-to-one analogy. The banks don’t know what was said today…but they’ve done their research, they’ve counted cards, right? And they make their pricing and their rate sheets and their offers and their loan terms accordingly.”
- [16:18] The parallel with sportsbooks: Like how all odds shift when key players are benched, all lenders move rates together based on the same intel.
8. What Market Rates Actually Mean (and Why Headlines Are Misleading)
- [18:54] Christian explains the “average” published mortgage rate:
- “All of them utilize the going 30-year rate which is typically projected by a 20% down primary residence…740 or higher FICO score with a 20% down.”
- Investor loans, lower credit, or less money down means higher rates.
- [20:15] Best practice: Don’t ask, “What are your rates?” Instead, ask, “What’s my rate for my loan scenario?”
9. Should You Wait? Is There More Downside to Rates?
- [22:36] Markets have already priced in three more Fed cuts; only about 20% of potential benefit remains.
- Christian: “If 80% of the damage has been done…that would be enough of a crack in the pricing to pull the trigger, right? It’s the people who say, ‘Oh, well, I want the absolute best deal on the absolute best day’ that probably never end up with a house.”
10. Real Estate is About the Long Game
- [23:38] David compares rate minutiae to long-term wealth:
- “I don’t know many investors that have the same rate for 30 years anyways. If…they go down, you usually refinance.”
- 30-year fixed rates are a “ratchet”: you can only benefit if rates drop again.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- David Greene on macro impact:
“I think the market needs [rate cuts] with all of the bad news that’s going on.” [00:31]
- Christian on market reaction:
“This rate cut has been priced in for probably the better part of two months now.” [06:54]
- Christian on lenders’ intelligence:
“Banks are so fricking smart. They have so many models and now with the influence of AI on everything…they know what [Powell is] going to do.” [09:34]
- David on day trading mentality:
“Rather than trying to outsmart the system, which you are guaranteed to lose because you’re outmanned and you’re outgunned, just talk to your mortgage broker about what your goals are.” [12:20]
- Christian’s blackjack analogy:
“When you count cards, you have a percentage likelihood of what's to come…You play the percentages. It's literally a one-to-one analogy.” [14:32]
- Christian on future rates:
“I think probably 70 to 80% of the market movement that's going to happen this year has happened.” [11:31]
- Christian’s simple refi rule:
“If you have a primary residence right now…I would say over a 6.75 rate, that or higher, you should refi.” [08:10]
- David on long-term perspective:
“Real estate is about the fundamentals: good area, good property, deal makes sense…The rate, over a long time, usually works itself out.” [23:38]
Important Timestamps
- Fed rate cut context, reactions:
[00:15]–[01:57] - Winners/Losers of lower rates:
[01:57]–[02:54] - Refinancing guidance:
[08:10]–[09:18] - How banks price rates:
[10:03]–[11:31] - Market-timing vs. planning:
[12:20]–[12:54] - Blackjack/cards analogy:
[14:02]–[15:21] - How “headline” rates work:
[18:54]–[20:43] - Future rate outlook:
[22:36]–[23:38]
Actionable Advice & Takeaways
- If you bought or refinanced a home in the past 1–3 years at rates over 6.75% (primary) or 7.25% (investment), now is the time to explore refinancing.
- Don’t wait for more rate drops—most of the benefit is already “baked in.”
- Don’t get fixated on headlines; your rate depends on your situation. Reach out to a specialized broker for personalized numbers.
- The mortgage market moves on anticipations, not announcements. Be proactive, not reactive.
Connect & Learn More
- Christian: the1brokerage.com | Instagram @the1broker
- David Greene: davidgreene24.com | Instagram @davidgreene24
Closing Thoughts
Lower mortgage rates are good news—but don’t expect a buying frenzy or dramatically better deals just by watching headlines. Act with perspective, consult experts, and focus on sound fundamentals for long-term wealth in real estate. Most importantly: Don’t wait for perfection. “You probably will never end up with a house if you're looking for the absolute best rate on the absolute best day.”
— Christian [23:28]