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David Green
Welcome to Real Talk Real Estate, the show where we cover how to build wealth in real estate with no fluff, no bs, and no sales pitches. I'm David Green, and I've been doing this for over 10 years. I've seen the ups, the downs, and everything in between. This is the show where we pull back the curtain and show it to you, too. So if you want to build wealth through real estate, or you just love learning about it, you found your home. What's up, everyone? This is Real Talk Real Estate. I'm David Green, he's Christian Bachelder, and this is Mortgage Monday. We've got an update here for you. For the first time probably in my lifetime, US Debt has been downgraded by Moody's. That's the. What would you call them, Christian? They're not a company.
Christian Bachelder
Like, they're a rating bureau. They're. They're the people responsible for grading investments, so to speak, kind of really, really dumbing it down. But they're. They're a rating bureau that grades investment mechanisms.
David Green
That's it. Now, these are the people, they're kind of like the Kelley Blue Book system for debt. Maybe that's a good way to put it. They tell you, hey, this is what you should expect from the person you're buying the debt from as far as their ability to repay. And they downgraded the US from AAA to AA1, which is the first time I've ever seen that the US Was actually downgraded. And this was as a result from increasing debt and interest payments that are higher than those of comparable sovereign nations. So because the US Spends more money every single year than what we bring in from tax revenue, we have to sell bonds to make up the difference. When we sold those bonds, interest rates were really low. The Fed has raised interest rates to combat inflation, which means that even though money doesn't change hands as often, and therefore the price of goods is supposed to come down, it creates another problem in the sense that the debt we have to pay other people is now at a higher interest rate than when we borrowed it. This is a pretty big concern for those that understand finances because the US Would either have to default on its debt, raise taxes, collect more taxes, or print more money to pay this back, which creates worse inflation. And that's the problem with running at a deficit every year. Unfortunately, that's very popular for politicians to do to get elected. They go, hey, we'll give you a bunch of free stuff. Vote for me. Well, we have to pay for that free stuff as we've seen from the Doge cuts. There's a very big bureaucracy that's not very efficient. Money gets wasted. We have to keep, keep borrowing money. We end up in this bad cycle. And Moody's has finally decided that they're going to downgrade the US's credit trustworthiness, maybe you could call it that. As a result, Christian, we're going to be talking today about what impact that this will have on mortgage rates. Is it positive, is it negative? What does it mean? So I'm going to go and turn it over to you and let you explain how interest rates on houses are affected by Credit. Credit reliability.
Christian Bachelder
Yeah, 100. And it's funny, you can almost think of the Moody's grade. You know, people are much more knowledgeable about personal credit score, right? But they don't really think that like countries and, you know, nations and different other, you know, investing vehicles have, have basically what boils down to a credit score, right? And to draw a, a likeliness of this to what our listeners would probably understand, the US credit score just went from 820 to like 790. That's a way to think about it, right? It's still like the second best rating obviously went from AAA to whatever Moody's designated as AA1 or whatever it is, funny enough, actually, I think it was about a year and a half ago. Now there are multiple credit rating houses or rating bureaus. Moody is the, the probably the most popular and the most kind of influential one, but a different one actually downgraded the US last year. And that's when the, the government shutdown was happening. I believe that's when Biden was still in office, you know, and they couldn't agree to the, the budget, the ceiling, the debt ceiling increase. And they were starting to throw out the, the possibility there of just defaulting on debt. And because those conversations were in the news, not Moody's, but other credit bureaus, credit rating bureaus actually dropped the us, the US bond rating as well. Now, to answer your question, David, what I think this will lead to in the short term, nothing. There's not a significant enough of a decrease to do it. However, this could be equated to something like a crack in the armor, right? Or the first puncture in the boat. We're not taking on water yet, but now there's, there's, there's a weak point, right? There's a, without one of my chemical engineering terms, there's a nucleation point, right? That's, that's a point where a A reaction can start taking place. Right? And what I mean by that is keeping with my analogy of comparing it to a personal credit score, you know, there's not a late payment, there's not a foreclosure, there's not a bankruptcy on the credit report yet. But maybe you just missed your first credit card payment, you know, or maybe your, you know, your balance is too high on your credit cards, right? That drops you from that 820 that you've been at down into the 7 hundreds. Now 790 is still pristine credit. You're still getting every mortgage out there. You're getting the best pricing in the same way that America is not in trouble because of this. But people who go from 820 to 790 may soon find themselves a 740, then 720, then 600. Right now I don't, this isn't like a raise the sales types type of, you know, battle cry that everything's going, you know, going to burn here. But it is something important to take note of and pay attention to. And the main reason why is like David said, the, the, the, these rates, all these things really are, is it's, it's the rate and the return in which America borrows money. Now we've talked about this in previous episodes, but the largest purchasers of American debt is other countries. Japan and China being 1A and 1B. Right? Japan's the largest holder. The UK's up there, you know, different, different European Union countries are up there, but China, Japan own a, a huge percentage. Why this downgrade? I think the current events of, of kind of the economic climate right now is leading to these, these grading changes is because there's a lot of talks of the likelihood of Japan and China selling off our bonds. And if they do that, there's only one thing that can happen and it's market demand will impact movement of returns. And what I mean by that is imagine the same thing happened with, with real estate. Imagine the largest holders of real estate in the country. I don't know, whatever BlackRock, Vanguard, whatever Boogeyman we want to point at, right, all of a sudden decided that we're going to sell all of our single family homes. We're going to do all, we're going to sell all of them. What would happen to the single family house market? It would get flooded with inventory and they would have to drop prices to bring the demand in line with the supply. That's the same thing that happens in the bond market. If Japan and China have an influx of available bonds and there's no buyers returns work inverse to how you would think, where you would think, oh, the price has to drop to incentivize buyers. But the way that happens in a bond is that the return has to increase. And when the return increases on a bond, the rates go up. And these are the classic indicators that correlate. It's not a one to one, but they generally correlate with the 30 year mortgage rate. And if rates go up on those bonds, rates go up on your mortgages. And that's a long winded answer. But answer you, David, the result of this could be a raise in 30 year fixed mortgage rates.
David Green
So the idea is if the investors who are buying these mortgage notes feel that the odds of getting paid back are, are less, then they're going to want a higher interest rate to make up for that risk and that's going to push mortgage rates higher.
Christian Bachelder
That's exactly right. And it's the same thing. You know, David, if we had a client right now, we had client a with an 800 FICO score and we had client B with a 640 FICO score, client A is going to get a better rate, they're going to get a lower rate. Right. Because the bank has more confidence in that person's ability to perform in paying their mortgage. It's the same way that if America starts to take this credit hit, what. Not historically, but at least in the short, you know, the most recent past. Right. Has been determined to, to just about be the most safe and dependable bet of where to put your money, which is the American government, because it always pays as debt. You know, I hear people joke all the time that America's like the Lannisters in Game of Thrones. Right.
David Green
America always pays its debt, always pays their debts.
Christian Bachelder
Well, what if they didn't? Right. There have been numerous pundits and experts out there that say that's starting to become more of a possibility now more than ever with the deficit. You know, the, the spend versus make certain deficit that we have right now. I, I don't think we're at risk of defaulting on our debt in the near future. We're still a 790 fico score. But just like I let off with, this is something very important to pay attention to because just like in Game of Thrones, the Lannisters eventually ran out of money and you can't pay debt if you don't got any money. Right?
David Green
Yeah.
Christian Bachelder
Just like you couldn't go get a mortgage if you don't have a down payment. Right. And it's. It's something to be careful of because obviously we can always print more because America has that ability. But if all of these things come piling on where we have a huge sell off of our bonds and maybe we lose our reserve currency status because bricks takes off and we lose control with, you know, the relationships with China and then there's wars everywhere. That's. That's kind of the perfect recipe. And inflation's up. That's kind of a perfect recipe where maybe at some point in the near future, a default comes to the table. Right. At least as a possibility. And that would decrease the amount of interested buyers we have in our debt, knowing that there's a likelihood we won't pay it in the same way the lender would require a higher return on somebody with a 640 FICO score. You may not pay that mortgage.
David Green
Right.
Christian Bachelder
Same concept.
David Green
Yep. So let's unpack what you're talking about there, because that is something I'm watching very closely. As mortgage professionals, like we are, as well as real estate investors, we want to know the health of the economy. Because housing values and rents go up with the economy, they go down with the economy. They are buoys in the water of a bigger system. And that's why when you're a new investor, you tend to learn how to use a calculator to analyze something for cash flow. But once you've been doing this for a while, you start to look at the bigger picture. Like, what's the ocean tides doing? Because that tells me when I want to be in the water or not in the water. Once I decide I want to be in the water, it's a good economy. Then I pay attention to the individual house that I might buy. But so many investors listening to this were taught by people in courses. Just narrow in, zoom in on the property. I think that can be dangerous if you lose focus of the overall condition that you're buying into. If your tenant doesn't have a job. It does not matter what that spreadsheet look like when you learn to analyze that property, if there is no buyer to get the property, or if no one can get qualified for a mortgage, or if interest rates are insanely high, people can't pay as much for your house or they can't buy it at all. So everything looked great on paper. From that information that you got from the book or the course or the podcast, it all didn't work for you. So you do need to pay attention to what's going on to the economy as a whole. I talk about that a lot in my new book, Better Than Cash Flow. You made a statement that I think we should unpack for people, that we can always print more money, which is what we've done. But the reason is because the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. Other countries hold their reserves in dollars because it's considered the most stable. Because of that, our country, we keep saying print money. It's not printing money. It's just like adding it to the money supply. You're increasing call like the M2, throwing.
Christian Bachelder
A couple zeros on the end.
David Green
Yeah. We're basically creating debt, buying it for ourselves and then. Or selling it to other people. So. But then we owe them that money, and so we've increased the money supply. You can only. You couldn't keep doing that if you didn't have reserve status. Other countries see that we get to just create money out of thin air and then send it to them and they send us something of objective value, a T shirt, a pair of socks, some shoes, some equipment, some lumber, whatever the case is. So they're working, producing goods, sending it to our country. We are giving them money, which is nothing, but it has value because it's the reserve currency. They've decided that's not fair. They want to be able to do that, too. So you have brics. This is a collaboration of countries. I believe it's Brazil, Russia, India, China and South America. They want to create a currency. Sorry, yes. South Africa. They to want. Want to create. Yeah. South America is not a country. Thank you for that. They want to create a currency that kind of like the euro or something like that that would rival the dollar, so that America can't just arbitrarily print money that would force our country to have to produce things, work, make stuff. Like a lot of these other countries are, that we just kind of exploit their labor and get things cheap. Trump sees this happening, wants to get ahead of where he sees it's going to, and so he's put the tariffs in place and he's doing stuff to try to penalize the countries that are aligning against us. What I'm watching very closely is this trade war. If everything shakes out, we all get along. I won't be as nervous if China puts their foot in the ground and they're like, no, you're not going to bully us, America. You're not going to tariff us. It's not going to be even. You're going to keep buying our stuff cheap and we're going to keep tariffing you because we're a country that makes stuff and you're a country that buys stuff. And don't you forget it. And they go get other countries to join their cause. That those would be people that would join bricks. And then it wouldn't be called bricks anymore because it be Alphabet soup. Right. You'd have a whole bunch of countries that were in. But that economic alliance would become a trade alliance which would rival us and whoever we're able to rally to us. So say that happens, America's going to say, well damn, we need some allies. They let's get Canada, let's get Mexico, let's get India, let's get the UK let's get all the countries whose values are more in line with ours and let's create our own little ecosystem. And you kind of have two world economies focusing like China's producing stuff and selling it to their half. We're buying stuff from say India instead of China or Mexico instead of China, and they're selling it to our half. We're providing our half with military defense. China is providing their half with military. You see how this kind of creates like a of ton, two different branches coming off of what was a whole bunch of different. I can't think of the analogy, but like sticks, let's say. And that could lead to a war. It could be lead to a big war. And if you, if a war pops off, you're going to side with whichever of those nations you already have an alliance with. Economically, if that happens, man, it doesn't really matter what you're doing with real estate. Nobody's buying houses. People are worried about stuff getting blown up. They're worried about getting sent overseas. They're worried about purchasing, producing a bunch of weapons. Now people aren't going to be comfortable spending money. So I don't think this is happening tomorrow. I don't want to sound the alarm here, but this is why it's important to watch these things. The more that we sell debt to other countries and they have it, the less leverage we have in negotiating and the less power that we have. The more that our country continues to stack up debt that it has to repay, the lower our credit rating will become. Like you said, this is the first chink in the armor. If it stops, it won't be a big deal. This isn't going to make mortgages super expensive if it keeps happening, if this continues, if this becomes a trend, if we can't get it reversed, I think you will see mortgages Starting to go up a lot. And then Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, they're going to be in a position where they have to decide are we going to go to 40 year mortgages to make these affordable because the rates are so high. Are we going to go to like a 30 year mortgage and then another 10 year mortgage on that? Like what kind of fancy lending are they going to come up with to try to make houses affordable because interest rates are too high? Are your thoughts?
Christian Bachelder
Yeah, all the above, you know, and we haven't seen something in this exact parallel because obviously we're in a little bit of unprecedented times. I mean we've had cold wars and trade wars and things before, but not in a, not in a world that's operating with the advancements and everything that we're in today. And I really think, I think it boils down to really one core concept and I think this is both the population and the country. I think America has been bad stewards of their money and I think that's for the last probably 40 years. I mean, if you really get in, I've been fascinated with, doing research on this topic with how much it's impacting everything in the world today. You know, if you really dive in, and I won't, I won't hijack this, this recording over it, but I highly implore our listeners to go really look up what led to where we are now. You know, go back to when we first out started outsourcing production to China and we, we basically signed away ownership of technology, right? We, we told China, we'll teach you how to build things, we'll invest in you, we'll do everything in your country so that our American companies can chase a little bit higher return due to your cheap labor. And instead of China doing what America did, which was kind of line the pocket, so to speak, they reinvested into a lot of things that are proving to be kind of smart decisions, you know, and I know a lot of it propaganda. And you can have your opinions on it. But go check out what like Chinese vehicles look like nowadays. Like I grew up in the timeline, you know, all throughout the 90s, early 2000s where like China was the equivalent of cheap. That was synonyms. That's what China meant. If something was made in China, it was cheap. Now it's like Tesla would be a failed company if Chinese, if China, Chinese cars were allowed to be sold in America. Right? Like they're insane. Like I implore people to go look it up. And that's what happens when you Know, money I think is, is properly routed and, and not saying what China is doing is correct. But I, I think America has been in a very beneficial position for a long time. And this boils down keeping this kind of, on lending related topics, this boils down to its people, its population as well, where I think for a long time we've been bad stewards of our money. I think we, we, we haven't invested defensively. We've, we've been careless in a lot of regards. America's given away money. I mean, you think of how we handled Covid, we think of how we handled 2008, we think of how we handled Y2K, we, everything seems like it boils down to, you know, you hear too big to fail get thrown around all the time. But like, that was kind of like toxic to start. We, we said it, we set a precedent where like methamphetamine can get us out of anything, right? And in this analogy, meth is money, right? It's just we can print our way out of any problem because everybody buys our debt. Who cares what our deficit is? We can own $30 trillion to the rest of the world. Who cares? We'll just print it to pay it. And there's a breaking point there, right? That's not a forever replicable answer. Right. It's a little scary to think about, but I, I don't think we're past saving. I think we really, I mean, it's, it's funny not to just, you know, shamelessly plug your book or your thoughts, David, but like, I think America needs to read your pillars book. Like, needs to get back into, like, let's invest defensively. Let's, let's get back to the fundamentals. Let's, you know, maybe, you know, these banks that wrote bad loans shouldn't have been bailed out. Let's not do that next time. You know, like, you know, it's funny because if you just apply all of these personal level individual tactics and advice that, that, you know, people like you give, David, and just scale it up. It's the same concepts. Just like how we're saying the credit score analogy goes all the way up to these rating bureaus, like, the defensive investing strategies can be scaled up as well. And you know, you, you see some of these things that Doge found in our, in our budget and it's like, what are we doing? Where are we spending our money? Man, this is crazy, you know.
David Green
Yeah, it comes down to inefficiency. The more inefficient you are the more expensive everything becomes 100. So while meth will give you a shot of energy, every meth bender ends up in a 24 hour sleeping session where that's what a recession is in the country. Everything has to kind of reset. I think people do need direction. They need someone to say, hey, here's a way, here's an industry, come join it and then they'll work. We're kind of lacking that. We don't really have, we haven't had a leader for a long time that created economic direction like, hey, here's opportunity for businesses to start in. Then they hire people, then people get jobs and they learn skills, and then we progress and we become productive. So I'm hoping that we see this in the future. What about interest rates though? Do we think that rates are going to continue to increase in the future if this continues to be a problem.
Christian Bachelder
If we continue on the route that we're in? I, I, it's, it's very hard to imagine a scenario where they don't go up because like I said, there's, there's a breaking point, right? And there's, whoever's in office when it does happen is, is going to be painted as the bad guy.
David Green
Yeah.
Christian Bachelder
Like you said, David, that's, we get into this game of politics, you know, having elections every four years where nobody wants to be the guy who leads into the recession, right? Nobody wants to be the guy with high gas prices, nobody wants to be the guy with high mortgage rates. And it also, it almost becomes this like, hey, I just need to make the next four years okay. And like, who cares what happens to the next guy? Right? Yeah, that's, that's really, it's bad leadership. You know, it's like, imagine if the general of an army was doing that. I'm gonna go deploy all my best people to the front line and 80% of them are going to die, but I'm going to be retired by the time that happens.
David Green
So the next guy is going to have to deal with the, yeah, what.
Christian Bachelder
If your general of your army made that decision and now you're the general that has to, has to come in after him and you're like, oh my God, 80 of my warriors are dead. You know?
David Green
Yeah, I mean, we saw that a little bit with the way that America treats its allies, like in war, right? You may align with the US and be like, hey, these guys are going to protect me, they're going to take care of me. This is a really important goal for them right now. So then you Kind of become the traitor in your own country to work with us. And then a new administration comes in, they're like, yeah, I don't care. That's not my agenda. We leave you out to dry. You, your family, you're like, the withdrawal from Afghanistan was a good point of that. Because we elect a new leader every four years and because that leader has to make promises to get elected, architecturally the way that we're designed, it's very difficult to get momentum going in any one direction. We see saw back and forth between a bureaucracy and socialistic principles and capitalistic principles. And then you may have a leader that's a capitalist, but he's bad at it. He just was a very charismatic person that got elected. Or they're great at it, but it took them a while to get some direction and the next person comes in and takes it. Which is what makes real estate investing difficult because the tides are going up and down all the time. And sometimes, like, you can't just snap your fingers and switch it. It takes a while for these things to move and then you start getting the tide you want. Then another person comes in and a couple years later it goes away. You have to pay attention to this if you're trying to manage a portfolio in today's market where cash flow is very difficult to come by, where equity goes up and down, where we talk about cash flow and equity, but there's a third factor in here that doesn't get talked about. That's days on market, you could have a lot of equity in properties that no one's buying. Right? Like the values are not plummeting, but they're just not moving. You can't get the equity out of it. That's a whole other dimension to consider as you're building a portfolio. Am I buying in an area that I can get the money out if I need, or is it going to sit on the market for 120 days before somebody buys it? It's like a whole nother factor. We didn't think about any of this when we had everything moving in the same direction for a while now. Things move around all the time. We have to talk about it on podcast because if you're trying to figure out what to do with $50,000 of your hard earned money, you need to think very carefully about where you plant it. The day used to be that everything, what's that miracle grow. Everything you planted just sprouted right up. You had equity right away, cash flow went up right away. You could make the property worth more you had tons of people applying for every house that you own. You could be really picky about your tenants. Then you 1031 into STR, you got a short term rental. You're crushing it with that. Boy, did the brakes hit that thing quickly when the Fed came in and they were like, we're raising rates right now. And they kind of threw the economy into recession. You couldn't sell the house to somebody else for as much because they have a higher interest rate. You couldn't go buy anything else because you have a higher interest rate. It's very difficult to 1031 into anything because nothing. Cash flowed. Then expenses all started rising on you while income did not. Now we're entering into a phase where a lot of your, your tenants are unable to pay their rent because they're having a hard time getting a job in a difficult economy while everything continues to be more expensive. It went from man just feast everything out there. It was hard to mess up in real estate to famine. What do I even buy? I can't find anything that's going to work for this unless you're playing the long term game. So I think a lot of people listening to this are experiencing that. They don't hear about it on a lot of shows because nobody wants to talk about the bad bad. It's either extremes of fire, thumbnail, it's all collapsing, which doesn't happen, or you can do it, you can quit your job in six months if you take my course, which is also not true. I think you just got to be a lot more prudent. One of the ways that I advise people in today's market is to think about where humans are moving to. That's going to be the place where if you buy a house, you want to get out from underneath it, someone will buy it, rents are likely to go up. You have to pay attention not just to the house but to the environment, which I talk about in better than cash flow quite a bit. And as someone closing, I believe the technical term is a buttload of loans right now. Christian, crushing it. Can you share some insight for our listeners of where you're seeing either cash flow or good deals happening in what part of the country that it's in?
Christian Bachelder
Yeah, believe it or not, it is still there. Even with the rates being where they are, even where, you know, prices have, I'll call it stabilized. I wouldn't say they're plummeting, I wouldn't say they're shooting up, but kind of a stabilization. You know, obviously cash flow still in the cash flow known markets, the Ohio's, the Memphis's, the Indianapolises, still seeing cash flow there primarily with multi families. We're seeing an uptick in you know, 2 to 4 units. Even the 5 to 10 unit space which don't forget guys, we do commercial lending which is anything 5 plus units. Still seeing a fair amount of interest in that. And believe it or not, we even still do short term rentals in the, the tried and true markets, right? The Tennessee's, the Florida's, the North Carolinas, you know, we, we still see people thriving in short term rentals. Now it's, it's harder for sure you know, than it was throughout covet and even a couple years after. But it's still possible, it's still possible with the right opportunity, the right mindset, you know, the right, the right business plan going into it and you know, the appreciation markets, you know, are always a more fundamental long term play. You know, that's the house hackers, right? The people getting in value, adding, buying a primary every year. You know, David and I have shared our strategy seat feels like a thousand times online now. The one house a year, right? You have a primary residence pass every year, use it low down payment, you can get in for cheap, you can do the repairs while you live there. You can get out and rent it for more than your mortgage once you're done, right? We still see all of those scenarios. I know I just listed off five or six of them, but we still see those every single day. And those are our tried and true clients that are kind of no matter what happens in the real estate industry, the reason why this isn't just you know, bragging on us, but the reason why I love what we've built and what you know, kind of our, our minds aligned on David, is that we really preach the fundamentals. We're not trying to grab at a flash in the pan, right? It's not this unique strategy that's only going to work for another year until everybody figures it out. It's, it's fundamental investing. It's a defensive approach. It's making sure your numbers work. It's, it's borrowing responsibly, you know, making sure your debt is serviced. It's, it's, it's a fundamental approach at something that people, I feel like non stop or trying to find that secret juju, right? The, the secret sauce. And really guys, the people who realize the most success in real estate are boring. That's the funniest thing that I found as a loan officer who has seen everybody from owners of huge companies to first time home buyers, tax returns, the people who are really just kicking butt do it a very boring way, right? They're, they're stacking up, you know, just like David said, a couple multi families leveling up to a short term rental or 10:30 wanting into a commercial property. And it doesn't flash on paper, it's boring, but it works because it's the fundamentals. It's defensive investing, it's putting your money in smart places, it's following where the people are going. You know, I mentioned the cash flow markets, markets like North Carolina, we do a lot of loans there. Right. A few years back I think of like, you know, when Austin exploded. You know, David, you always use your analogy, you should go buy where all the Californians are going. It's probably a lot to be said there because where Californians go, money follows, right. And the people who employ those strategies are time after time, kind of just, you know, undeniably the people who come out ahead. And if you don't feel like you're getting that advice and that guidance, reach out. We deal with people every single day. I'd be more than happy to share our expertise with you.
David Green
Great advice there. Consider getting a primary low money down. You live in it, you get tax exceptions, you can fix it up while you're living there without pressure, without paying hard money rates, without having to deal with contractors on their timeline, you can do it on yours and look into areas where people are moving. And I'm just seeing more and more people moving where houses are affordable. So everybody moved to Florida from like New York and New Jersey because it was affordable. Now it's not. Now it's very expensive and now people are leaving. If you that isn't an argument for people want affordability, I don't know what is. And if you understand that people want affordability, you will also understand nothing stays affordable because when everyone goes there, they drive up the prices. Florida used to be where people went to retire and live for less money. Now it's very expensive. You have to be wealthy to be able to live there. The places that we talk about now being affordable will not stay affordable. Money will move there, it will balance out and it will become expensive too. So my advice would be if you've got a market that you've been keeping an eye on, like look at Columbus, Ohio five years ago, very different market now that's the bell of the ball. Everybody wants to be in Columbus right now. It's becoming unaffordable it will soon be unaffordable or at least saturated to where it's very difficult to make a deal work. So you kind of got to get into these markets before everybody else hears about them, which means you have to have an advisor that can explain stuff to you. Christian, if you want, if people want to get ahold of you, if they want to talk about where other people are investing, if they want to get a loan, where can they go?
Christian Bachelder
Absolutely can always find us guys at the one brokerage. The one brokerage.com I'm sorry, is our is our company website. It's where you can see information about us, the products that we offer. If you want to catch me directly on Instagram, I'm at the one broker is my handle. You can slide into the DMs, ask me any questions that you want. I respond directly to to any message I get on there.
David Green
All right? You can find me at david green24.com use the chat feature on the website, get a hold of me directly. You can also find me on Instagram @David Green 24 DM me there. Or you could do that on Facebook. I do check Facebook messenger as well. But here's the thing. We want to talk to you. We want to help you grow your portfolio. We want to protect you from being ripped off by the wrong people. Trust me, they are out there. Christian, thanks for joining me today. I appreciate it. If you guys like the show, please take a second to like it. Subscribe to the channel and leave us a comment to tell us what think we will see you next week on Mortgage Monday.
Podcast: The David Greene Show
Host: David Greene
Guest: Christian Bachelder
Release Date: June 9, 2025
Duration: Approximately 34 minutes
In Episode 65 of "Real Talk Real Estate with David Greene," titled "Mortgage Monday - What The US Credit Downgrade Means for You," host David Greene teams up with mortgage expert Christian Bachelder to discuss the unprecedented downgrade of the United States' credit rating by Moody's. This conversation delves into the ramifications of this downgrade on mortgage rates, the broader economy, and strategies that real estate investors should adopt in response.
[00:53] David Green:
David opens the discussion by explaining that Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1, marking the first instance of such a downgrade. He outlines the causes, primarily the increasing national debt and rising interest payments surpassing those of comparable sovereign nations.
[01:30] David Green:
“The US spends more money every single year than what we bring in from tax revenue, we have to sell bonds to make up the difference.”
[02:49] Christian Bachelder:
Christian analogizes the US credit rating to a personal credit score, suggesting the downgrade is akin to dropping from an 820 FICO score to 790. While 790 is still considered excellent, it signifies a potential decline in financial reliability over time.
[08:05] David Green:
David clarifies that a downgrade affects mortgage rates because lenders perceive increased risk, necessitating higher interest rates to compensate.
[08:18] Christian Bachelder:
Christian reinforces this by comparing it to individual credit scores:
“If America starts to take this credit hit, what... it's like if someone drops from an 800 to a 640 FICO score.”
Key Insight:
The downgrade could lead to a rise in 30-year fixed mortgage rates, making home loans more expensive for borrowers.
[09:10] Christian Bachelder:
Christian discusses the broader economic implications, including the potential for default on US debt, increased taxation, or inflation from money printing. He warns that sustained deficits and debt reliance could undermine the US's position as the world's reserve currency.
[12:38] David Green:
David expands on the consequences of the US maintaining its reserve currency status, highlighting the challenges of sustainably increasing the money supply without devaluing the dollar.
[21:27] David Green:
“The more inefficient you are, the more expensive everything becomes.”
He compares economic inefficiency to a recession, emphasizing the need for strategic leadership to guide economic recovery and growth.
[16:56] Christian Bachelder:
Christian stresses the importance of defensive investing strategies, such as focusing on cash flow markets like Ohio, Memphis, and Indianapolis. He advocates for multi-family properties and commercial lending as resilient investment avenues amidst economic uncertainty.
[27:21] Christian Bachelder:
Highlighting successful strategies, Christian mentions:
[31:13] David Green:
David advises:
[27:21] Christian Bachelder:
Christian provides current market insights, noting that despite rising rates, cash flow opportunities remain in multi-family and commercial properties. He also highlights the continued viability of short-term rentals in popular markets such as Tennessee, Florida, and North Carolina.
[29:00] Christian Bachelder:
“The people who realize the most success in real estate are boring.”
He emphasizes the effectiveness of fundamental, disciplined investment approaches over chasing trendy or high-risk strategies.
[22:19] Christian Bachelder:
Christian predicts that interest rates will continue to rise if the current fiscal issues persist, leading to more expensive mortgages and challenging conditions for both lenders and borrowers.
[23:17] Christian Bachelder:
Using a military analogy, he warns of the political ramifications of sustained economic mismanagement:
“Imagine if the general of your army made a decision that leads to heavy losses, and the next general has to deal with the aftermath.”
[31:13] David Green:
David reflects on the cyclical nature of political leadership and its impact on economic stability, underscoring the necessity for consistent, long-term investment strategies.
As the episode wraps up, David and Christian encourage listeners to stay informed and adopt prudent investment strategies. They highlight the importance of understanding economic indicators and positioning real estate portfolios to weather potential financial storms. Listeners are invited to reach out for personalized advice and further insights.
Notable Quotes:
David Green [01:30]:
“The US spends more money every single year than what we bring in from tax revenue, we have to sell bonds to make up the difference.”
Christian Bachelder [08:18]:
“If America starts to take this credit hit, what... it's like if someone drops from an 800 to a 640 FICO score.”
Christian Bachelder [27:21]:
“The people who realize the most success in real estate are boring.”
David Green [21:27]:
“The more inefficient you are, the more expensive everything becomes.”
Christian Bachelder:
David Green:
Final Thoughts:
This episode serves as a crucial guide for real estate investors navigating the complexities of a downgraded US credit rating. By understanding the underlying economic factors and implementing strategic, fundamental investment practices, listeners can better position themselves to sustain and grow their real estate portfolios amidst financial uncertainties.