David Green (17:01)
Daniel, thanks for the question. You remind me of something that my good friend Justin and I just talked about on the phone the other day. He also has a HELOC that's hammering him and he's trying to figure out if he should sell an investment property to pay it off. And here's why. A lot of people open HELOCs a couple years ago and use the money to buy their next investment property. Now, I cautioned against it. I didn't tell people don't do it at all. I just said, hey, you be careful if that's what you want to do. I don't love the idea of taking a HELOC out of one property and using it as the down payment for the next. Because what happens is you borrow money to buy the property, then you borrow money for your down payment. You've now borrowed money from two different sources. When it's already really hard to get cash flow, you create an uphill battle for yourself and then you still got to pay off that heloc, which doesn't get talked about. We assume that whatever you buy is going to cash flow, but then when it doesn't, you're stuck. Now your quality of life goes down as you're probably feeling because it is stressful when all the money that you made and all the money you're making at your job is going to pay off debt. Now here's the reason that this hit people so hard when rates went up. Those HELOCs that everyone took out that seem really cheap 5, 6, 7% went up to 9, 10, 11, 12%. Some of them are sitting at 14%. It's really expensive trying to pay these things off. However, if you sell either of your investment properties, you're going to lose cash flow from the investment. And if you sell the primary, you're going to have to buy another one. So after thinking about it, here's where I'm going to advise you. I want you to keep that primary residence and keep paying for the heloc. If you can, work more hours, work more overtime, get a better job, do something. I want you to add value to the primary. After a year, you can sell it and your capital gains taxes should be about 15%. If you can make it another year, buy another property as a primary and move into it. Then sell the one that you had. If you can't find a second primary, give yourself two years, then sell your primary and don't pay any capital gains. Use that money to pay off the heloc. I really like this idea of a live in flip for you every chance you get. If you can, keep finding deals for 180,000 that you're then going to sell for 275 after you fix the money up, you should be doing that every single year. Let the equity that you made from this deal pay off the HELOC you took out. And in the future, be careful about taking out additional HELOCs to buy properties. I prefer to see People take out HELOCs to improve properties they already have than to use that money for a down payment on a new one. Good question, though, Daniel. And something tells me that you might want to check out my mastermind, Spartan League. That's my real estate community. It's sort of a university for real estate investors. If you're interested in checking it out, you can DM me the word Spartan on Instagram or Daniel, reach out to me directly and I'll see if that's something you might want to enjoy. I love that you're out there hustling and making moves. All right, next up, we have a question from David in Tampa. David, with the high cost of taxes, home insurance and flood insurance, is the Tampa St. Pete area still investable? Wow. Short, succinct, to the point. Well done, David. Oh, boy. This is not going to be a short answer. There's so many angles to take with this thing. Florida is a confusing, complicated state. I'm in a bit of a situationship with Florida because I believe in it for the future. I love the business environment. I love the location. I love a lot about Florida. I think people are going to keep moving there. I don't think they're going to keep moving there at the rate that they have Been. And I also think a lot of people are going to move out of Florida. This is where it gets weird. While many people are going to want to live in Florida, many that already bought, they're going to try to get out because of exactly what you said, the insurance problem and the flood problem. The hurricanes have come and have dumped some water on the red hot market. That was Florida. If you live there, you know what I'm talking about. St. Pete got hammered by two Hurricanes in a row. Tampa very close, also significantly affected. And as insurance is skyrocketing, people are saying this is way less affordable than I thought. You see people move to Florida because it was cheaper than New York or some, or Boston or some of the east coast cities that they left left. Now they're going to move out of Florida and I'm trying to figure out where they're going to go because those might be the places that you want to invest in for the future. So over the short term, I do think you're going to see people leaving St. Pete and I do think the values in that area are going to go down. But in the long term, I think that they're going to do just fine. So if I was you here, so I'd be thinking I probably would sell in St. Pete and I'd put the money in a different state, maybe Alabama, north Arkansas, somewhere in the Midwest, but only for a couple years, which means I'd want to buy something where I could force equity, I want to fix it up, make it worth more and then let the equity sit in that deal. I would let everything cool off. I would see what happens with the insurance in Florida and I would appear stable. I'd put the money right back in there. Now if you do this just right, what's likely to happen is you take the money out of Florida when it's not growing, you put it into a market that is going to be growing. Doing you also add value to the property that you bought. Then you take this big chunk of equity that you created and move it right back into Florida where prices have stayed about the same, which meant you added to your wealth. Then you'll see the values in Florida that will continue to grow. So it's a good long term investment. I'm not down on Florida. I just think Florida is going to have a couple years in the future of sort of stagnantness, stagnicity, stagnosity. I don't know exactly what I'm trying to say there, but it's going to remain stagnant for a period of time. What would Fergie say? Stag. Stagnicious. Stag licious. Yeah, this is a stag licious real estate investing environment. Also, David, I like where your head's at. You're thinking the right way, you're paying attention to what's going on in the market. I think you should listen to your gut on this one. Probably a good idea to move your equity. Remember, everybody, you can submit your question just like David here did@davidgreen24.com ask but if you submitted a question and you didn't get an answer, you have a question that's more confidential or you need a quick answer. You can also find me on the Minect app. M I N N E C T. You can find it on the App Store. It's made by valuetainment. You can reach me there or you can email help davidgreen24.com and Schedule A consultation. Also, can I just take a second to thank you for listening. I love you guys. Let me know in the comments on YouTube what your favorite part of the show is and what you'd like to see more of. Moving on to the next segment of the show, the comment section. This is where I read comments from YouTube, Instagram, other places. Cali Red Hood says if people spent the same time educating and working harder instead of complaining or blaming others for their problems, they could have a better and more stable life. That's pretty good. Where you spend your energy matters. We sort of talked earlier about how people have withdrawn, putting energy into their job or their business or their investing because they're scared. But they haven't put the energy into anything else. I mean, at least put it into the gym or your relationship or something. Don't just let your potential go to waste because you're afraid to do anything. I'm curious why you discourage turnkey property. Do you mention that on previous pods and again on this one? If they're cash flowing, what is wrong with them? Mahalo from Joe. Yeah, that's a good question. Why am I down on turnkey? Well, I don't know that they really cash flow. First off, they present like they will. But when I've talked to the turnkey investors that bought into the worst markets, which is always where these companies tend to operate. They didn't cash flow. They were told they would cash flow. You thought you cash flowed for three years. Then the air conditioner breaks, there's a roof leak, you have one tenant that leaves and you got to spend $6,000 to get the property ready for the next 13 years of cash flow completely gone. Now this is the same thing that happens with normal real estate investments. Cash flow is notoriously unreliable. It's very easy to lose it. But see, those capital expenditures and the losses that you actually experience are made up for by equity growth. It could be market appreciation, equity you invested in the right market. It could be natural equity. The Fed printed a bunch of money and made real estate worth more. It could be equity that you added to the property by forcing it. Or maybe, just maybe, you bought a really good deal the old fashioned way. What I call buying equity. And that made up for whatever you had to spend to fix up the property that the tenants broke or something fell apart. That doesn't happen when you buy turnkey. The person that makes the money in a turnkey transaction is the turnkey provider. If these were great deals, they'd be keeping them, not selling them. That's basically why I say this. This does not mean every single turnkey provider is bad. I will say I've been doing this for about 10 years and I haven't had a story yet of a person that was happy with their turnkey. And the few people that were would have been happier if they had bought the property themselves. From Daisy Espinoza when is a HELOC a good idea? I have my first property that I purchased as primary and then I converted to a rent rental when I moved. I would like to purchase my second property using a HELOC and buy a primary to house hack. What are some things to consider before taking this route? Is there a rule of thumb for how much equity it should have? Well Daisy, you picked the right episode to ask this question on because as I said earlier, I don't love this strategy folks. I'm just going to say it this way. If you need the money from a HELOC to buy your next property, you're probably not ready to buy your next property unless it's a flip. If you're trying to buy something that you can turn around and sell, I'm a little bit closer to being okay with you using a heloc. Now Daisy, you do mention buying a house hack. I'm assuming that if you do this, you can eliminate your housing expense or significantly reduce it. So if you can save $2,000 a month by house hacking off of rent, you're spending and your HELOC is going to be 1500. That might make sense. But if it's anything different, if the HELOC is more than the savings. I don't think you should do it. Just save money the old fashioned way. From CM Roenke David, I appreciate the time and effort that you put into your content. You and Rob were an amazing team on bp. I've seen a trend of many investors going back to brrrr. Is this the best exit strategy in your market? Certainly not my market in California it's very hard to do a brrrr. Why have we seen people going back to the brrrr? Well, I'm guessing it's because rates came down a little bit. See, BRRRR was never the problem. Long term buy and hold was the problem. It was very hard to make a long term buy and hold work when rates went up. Of course the BRRRR strategy get blamed. That's just ignorance. I don't take that stuff too seriously. But I did get a lot of shots fired at me as Sir Burr with people saying that the BRRRR method doesn't work, here's what I have to say. You buy a property at a good price, you increase its value. You've created equity. You've created wealth. Wealth if you can hold on to it for it. If you can't, sell it as a flip. If you think the market's going to continue to go up in the future, keep it as a burr. If you think the market is stagnant and not going to go up, sell it as a flip and reinvest the money. My new book, Better Than Cash Flow basically describes ways to analyze real estate just like this. To make these decisions really simple, I cover the 10 ways that you make money in real estate, not just the one way that everyone's been taught. You can preorder the book on Amazon or you can join my text letter to get notified when it comes out. All you gotta do is go to my Instagram and put the word text in a DM to me or on any of my posts text. Then follow the prompts in your DMs. All right. Moving on to the next segment, the Real News report. This is where I keep it real with all of y'all so you know what's going on in the world of real estate. Our first article Inflation has returned to normal. What does that mean for the election? From ABC News as the US Hurdles towards a presidential election this fall, the nation's inflation rate has quietly returned to normal, even as it continues to worry voters and draw focus on campaign events. More than half of adults list inflation as the top issue for the country, making it the highest Ranking concern by a wide margin over the likes of immigration, crime, and abortion. The disconnect stems in part from a typical lag between when inflation comes down and when consumers acclimate to new price levels, since a lower inflation rate does not mean prices have come down, but rather that they have begun to increase at a slower pace. So consider the fact that you started putting on a lot of weight. You were gaining five pounds every month, and you've gained 100 pounds. People think that inflation going down means you're losing weight, but you're not. What it means is you've still gained 100 pounds, but now you're only gaining 2 pounds every month. Month instead of 5. It's not actually the great news that everybody thinks it is, because prices rarely ever come down. Once you gain that weight, it doesn't go away. This may not be the perfect analogy, but the only way is you can add more muscle to offset all that weight that you put on. So in this example, if inflation is putting on weight, adding muscle would be earning more income. That is really your only option to catch up when you fall behind from inflation. And so few people are doing this. It concerns me. I want to see more people saying, dang, I put on £100. How am I going to fix this? I better get in the gym and start lifting those weights. But so many people are just paralyzed with fear right now. This is something I'm praying for the country, for my friends, for family, everybody, pretty much every day, that the spirit of fear would be broken off the people who believe, and they would dig down deep, find the talents and the skills that God gave them, and use those to put on some muscle. While consumer attitudes have brightened in recent months, many people remain frustrated with the cumulative leap in prices over recent years. The trend carries uncertain implications for the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Since persistent concern about inflation could hurt Harris. But recent improvement in sentiment may blunt some of that negative impact. Inflation is really something that takes people a long time to feel better about. Yeah, I've been talking about inflation since COVID Even before that a little bit. I've been banging the gong about inflation. I've been worried about this a lot. I think a lot of the problem is that when they start printing the money, you don't have inflation right away. It takes several years before it comes. And it's hitting us right now, but it's hitting us because of decisions that we made in the past. It was very unwise for us to not be prepared for this. So what can you do to help fight inflation? Well, a couple easy things. You could buy some real estate because it does really well in high inflationary environment. You could keep your own spending down and you can consider getting a renewed effort and focus into making more money. If you're young, you don't need to pay for a $3,000 apartment to have your own space. Move in with somebody else and just don't be home that much. Get out there and work two jobs, especially if you're a young man. If you hate working, fix that. You're going to be spending a lot of your life working. There's nothing wrong with doing it. And if you've been going out to eat a lot, not cooking food, drowning yourself in retail therapy, find some activities like exercise or building authentic relationships that don't cost money but will still make you happy. Imagine if we had a movement of husbands and boyfriends that came back, romance their wives and girlfriends and spent a lot more time making them happy rather than spending a bunch of money on stuff that we got used to doing when everyone was rich. All right, next up from Newsweek, the housing market is expected to come roaring back after the election, according to real estate expert. The housing market is likely to come roaring back after the election, a real estate expert shared on Friday. But another expert told Newsweek the excitement may be premature. Ryan Sirhant, a real estate broker known on million dollar listings, said buyers and sellers should expect the housing market changes after the election. Inventory's up. Interest rates are at 20 month lows. People are waiting. They want to see if deals are going to come. No one wants to catch a falling knife, but also no one wants to jump into a speeding car. Are Sirhant told Fox Business Stuart Varney on Varney and company of today's current market. While the current market has frustrated Americans, Sirhan said he's optimistic about where it's headed in 2025. I think people are waiting to see what happens in November and that will take us into a roaring 2025 once mortgage rates reach 5 and 4%, Sir Hot predicted more liquidity in the market Elections often impact the housing market as an administration's new economic policies change a market's confidence level. Interest rates can also change as a result of those policies based on Federal Reserve decisions. Lower overall inflation levels could also inspire an improved housing market as more Americans become able to afford a house. Still, not all finance Experts agree that 2025 will be strong as Sirhan is anticipating, especially as interest rates linger at 6.65% for a 30 year mortgage. 2025 is poised to be a good year for the housing market, but I think it's premature to say it will be as strong as some are expecting, said Alex Bean, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee. While interest rates are starting to decline, they're still significantly higher than they were a few years ago, and that equates to higher monthly payments that will keep buyers from diving in. All right, let me weigh in on this thing. Here's what you can expect. You've got two options. Rates could go up or rates could go down. If rates go up, you will see the price of goods and services stop increasing as much as it was. But you will see unaffordability get worse in other areas like housing. If rates go down, you will see that housing starts to go back up. People can make money in real estate again and homes might even become more affordable in some ways, but everything else will become less affordable because inflation will take off again. There is no scenario here where you get the best of both worlds. You just got to pick your poison. So my advice is to be ready for either of those scenarios with a plan that you can execute. No matter what happens, happens. All right, moving on to our last article, China Pledges More Financial Support for White List Real Estate Projects China will expand its white list of real estate projects and speed up bank lending for these unfinished developments by the end of the year, the country's Housing Ministry said Thursday. Nihong, China's Minister of Housing and Urban Rural Development, made the announcement at a press conference alongside officials from the Central Bank. A total of 2.2 trillion yuan, which is over $500 billion, had already been approved in loans to whitelist the developers. That figure will almost double the 4 trillion yuan by the end of the 2024 year, according to a senior official from the Financial Regulatory Admin launch in January. China's whitelist initiative allows city governments to recommend residential projects to banks for speedier lending. The intent was to ensure the completion of unfinished housing projects so they could finally be delivered to buyers. So here's what's going on in China. They had a boom. They tried to build a lot more housing. The way that they set it up over there is you give the developer a lot of the money to build the property and then they build it and give it to you. However, the developers took the money and then stopped finishing the projects. So they have a lot of projects that were started housing over there that were never completed for the people that didn't pay their developer up front, the developers would run out of money. They couldn't keep raising it to fund their project. So they just abandoned these properties. And you have whole communities, projects, skyscrapers that are just sitting there, half built, not being finished. And this has been a black eye on China's government and real estate scene. So they're trying to come up with a plan for how they're going to fund it. Zhao stressed that banks should deploy funds as soon as possible, saying that they could release the loans in full to developers rather than in in bits and pieces. The briefing was the latest in a series of high level government policy announcements aimed at bolstering the economy. Okay, I don't know anything. I can't predict the future, but my head does look like a crystal ball. Here's what I think we could expect. I don't think China has the money to just give these people. I think what they're going to do is something similar to what they saw America do. They're going to create economic stimulus, issue bonds to themselves and use that money to fund these projects. What happened when we did that here, we got a lot of inflation. So if I'm correct with my prediction, that means China is also going to be experiencing inflation. Now, China's economy has been struggling. This is another reason that I think that they're likely to try to print money to fix things. The article says that some investors saw the recent flurry of activity as a sign that Beijing was finally ready to take drastic measures to stimulate growth and they had hoped for more stimulus measures. From the briefing, as Xiao was Speaking, the Chinese CSI 300 real estate index dropped over 5% in a sharp turnaround from gains of almost 9% in the previous three trading sessions. Volatility in the Chinese stock market is likely to continue as investors lack conviction that the stimulus package and what's been announced is going to turn things around. So could China end up in a similar situation to the US where they're printing money that debases their currency, makes their real estate worth more, but makes the overall cost of living go down because all the things you're spending money on go up, but the wages you're being paid from your employers don't keep up. The plot thickens. All right, if you like this kind of stuff, remember every week I go live on my YouTube channel and I talk about real estate news and how it could impact the economy or you as the investor. Just look up the David green show on YouTube and subscribe to the channel to get notified when I'm going Live. I also go on my Instagram and I tell everybody when I'm about to go live. So follow me at davidgreen24 over there. There. Next segment of our show, Quick Hitters. Tera Bird tells me, get a Tesla or an Ev. I don't know what I said that made her say that, but here's why I'm not going to do that. I would never remember to charge it. I can't remember anything. Actually, I can remember everything that happened when it's something that I care about. But what I was supposed to eat for lunch that day, what I told someone yesterday I was going to do, I never know. Fun fact, I never even know when I'm traveling. I keep a suitcase and a garment bag in the trunk of my car and I look at my calendar and when it tells me tomorrow you're flying somewhere, I just drive there. I have not packed for anything in over four years. From Professional Aesthetics, the best real estate show on YouTube and the net. Boom. Professional aesthetics. You can trust them because they're a professional. I think I'm the least aesthetic real estate influencer on the Internet. And so if someone who's professional at aesthetics likes the show, that tells you how good it really is. Thank you for that. That from Aragolski. Hey David, why are you so against turnkey investments? Well, guess what, we talked about that a little bit earlier. Just rewind a little bit and you can get that info from Kelly. Rachel, God is my therapist. Please pray for him. Seriously though, recently I've been trying to be better at yielding because I clearly don't know what I'm doing. Welcome to the club from Mad Duke. Are you still looking for loan officers? Yes, we are. The one brokerage is hiring loan officers. So if you are thinking about finding a better brokerage to hang your license at that, email us intakehebrokerage.com and let us know that you'd like to hang your license with the one brokerage we'll get you set up. All right folks, in the sneak peek section of the show, I've got some news to announce. Better than Cash Flow is very close to being released. We are finishing up the COVID art right now and we're going to be planning a book launch party at several locations across the country. If you want to come party, have a good time and celebrate the launch of this new book. If you want to get information on that, go to my Instagram and send the word text. You could get subscribed to my text letters. Behind the Shine of Seeing Green and keep an eye hi on my Instagram avidgreen24 because I'll be putting the information out there. Also, to wrap things up, we've got a Sneak Peek Part 2 Coast to Coast Getaways Performance Property Management My property management company right now only managing short term rentals is looking to take on some new properties. So if you're unhappy with the current management you have, you're tired of managing it yourself and you want some help or you'd like to see your property perform better, send us an email stravidgreen24.com Tell us about your property. We'll see if it's in an area that we could take it off on and we could be managing your property for you. All right everyone, we covered quite a few topics here including where equity should be moved, when equity should be moved, if a HELOC is the best option to buy new property, how to pay off existing HELOCs when live in flips make sense and what to do with your money when you're not buying anything. I want to take a minute to sincerely thank you for listening to today's show. I hope you laughed, I hope you thought, I hope you felt something and I hope you learned. I'm David Green, this is the David Green show and is part of the Real Talk Real Estate Network. Remember, you can go to davidgreen24.com Ask to submit your question to be featured on the show. Make sure you subscribed and leave us a review if you like the show. Thanks very much everyone. I will see you next week. Keep rocking Real Talkers thanks for listening to Real Talk Real Estate. If you would like to be featured on the podcast, I'd love to have you visit davidgreen24.com Ask and submit your question there. Also, please do me a huge favor and share the show with someone that you love that you think would benefit from his message and make sure you're subscribed to get notified for future episodes. If you want to reach out directly, you can also DM me on Instagram or social media and check out davidgreen24.com.