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[00:00]
A
Foreign.
[00:10]
B
Welcome to the report. It is July 29, 2026. The question today, can the economy handle rate hikes? Mike sees a few of those on the horizon. Will they pop the AI bubble? The AI speculation trade. We are almost 10 months into the bear and, and the market, it seems like is pricing two Fed rate hikes today. Of course there's an FOMC meeting this afternoon. Mike and I don't yet know the results of that. As we go into today's recording we should find out though, so maybe listener you will know. But the question today is can the economy handle the rate hikes that Mike believes are headed its way either in this meeting or in the next one. On the surface the economy looks kind of hot and but there's some hidden fragility there that we're going to talk about. Labor savings, housing and this might affect the AI speculation trade. It may have peaked. If it has peaked, what does a falling NASDAQ mean for our crypto assets? And guys want to remind you to stick around to the end. I've got one phrase for you and that is bumpy landing. I've got one price target which is 55k. We will explain what those things mean as at the end of today's episode. So that's our tease. We are recording Mike a few hours before the Fed decision drops. That's going to drop at 2pm Eastern. What are you watching for this afternoon?
[01:32]
A
Yeah, you know, you mentioned like the, the AI bubble, you know, might be kind of rolling over here. It feels like it's, it's getting pricked. I think with just a lot of the, the narratives out there right now with potential rate hikes. You know, a lot of the stuff that went up, you know, or 5x, you know, NASDAQ went up 30% in like a two month period. And so it makes sense that, you know, things are starting to roll over a little bit. I think a lot of this uncertainty around rate hikes is driving a lot of this discussion. We started to hint a little bit last week about some of these macro risks that we're starting to see build out there. This week's report really focuses more on the economy and Fed policy and kind of where we think we're going here and what that means for Nasdaq and then what that potentially means for bitcoin. Bitcoin has been outperforming Nasdaq, which is down I think about 9% from the highs in early June. So bitcoin has been outperforming. The question is, is that going to continue if we see further weakness in that sector.
[02:37]
B
Yeah, I think today's report ends in kind of this, this fork of the road almost. It's a question of whether the economy can handle these hikes or not. If it can't, then maybe bitcoin goes into the deep value territory that you've been talking about so much. If it can, then maybe the lows are already in. You indicate earlier in today's report that you're seeing a lot of signs of seller exhaustion. Maybe not all the way through yet, but a lot of the signs are there. So we'll get into that. At the time of recording, bitcoin price is hovering above 65K. The NASDAQ interestingly is down 8% from its June 2 high. Let's get into the Fed and the decision this afternoon because regardless of the decision this afternoon, I think you still see strong potential for two hikes on the horizon. So let's back up and talk about why the Fed actually has to hike rates in your view.
[03:35]
A
I think they need to hike rates because the market is dictating that. And I think that's kind of the important takeaway here is the Fed is really responsive to market conditions. And one way to kind of look at sort of what the market conditions are doing and what they're telling the Fed is to just look at the two year. This chart here is showing the two year treasury versus the Fed funds rate. The two year is the blue line there and the Fed funds is the dotted green line. And what tends to happen here is the two year leads right in both directions. So when you get a significant separation between that two year and what the Fed is doing, the Fed tends to catch up to it. Right. You can kind of see it, you know, throughout this chart. The Fed will catch up to it. And then that's when, you know, things tend to reverse in the other direction. And what I've been really kind of just watching here is the two year continuing to separate from the Fed funds rate. It's about 55 basis points higher than sort of the top range of the Fed funds rate right now. So I've been watching this build and to me it's the, it's the bond market looking at things and saying, you guys are too, you're, you're too loose. Like the, the economy is really strong right now. We have inflationary impulses and I think the bond market is kind of fading. This idea that inflation may be rolling over. We did have a lower CPI print in June and you would Think maybe that would feed through to, to the rates to the treasury market. And we haven't seen that. We've seen the 10 year continue to rise, we've seen the two year continue to rise. So it's to me it's, the market's telling the Fed they need to raise rates and I think that's normal right when the economy's doing well. When the economy's running hot, this is what you tend to see. Unemployment is pretty low right now. We know there's tons of fiscal spending going on out there. There's a ton of AI capital in the market. So the real economy seems to be doing well. You know, we've talked about the ism. The ISM has been doing well in the manufacturing sector. We're in expansion mode there. Bank lending is up. So when you look at sort of the, I think the health of the economy right now it looks pretty good and that's why they have to hike rates. What I'm trying to do is kind of look forward and say, okay, if they start hiking, what are the, what is going to be sort of the knock on, what's the domino effect on that? Which we'll get into a little bit here as we start to kind of forecast out what this means. But it's starting to feel very similar to kind of like you know, 2022 when we had this same dynamic where the, the two year was racing past and you can see it in the chart, the two year was racing past the Fed funds rate. The Fed had to catch up to that. Once the market became convinced that inflation had peaked it. That's when we actually started to see the markets come back. Even though the Fed continued to hike throughout 2022, the markets bottomed in October or so of that year. So we may be kind of in a similar setup right now.
[06:38]
B
So I understand the idea that you're pushing forward, which is the market is sending clear signals as to what the Fed needs to do and what the Fed will do ultimately. And the market is clearly fading the inflation drop. So there was a nice inflation headline number. A CPI dropped to 3.5% in June. The market it seems to be is saying like that's not durable. Inflation is going to be back on the menu. But I have to ask the question, isn't the Fed an independent actor in all of this? Why is it the case that they have to do what the market wants to do? So I'll give you another scenario here. Maybe the Fed just decides inflation is not a priority. Inflation does not need to be fought. Or there's another case here, which is the wider government. The idea of an independent Fed is like, maybe not quite true. And of course, the higher the Fed fund rates, the lower the interest payment the US Government has to make on its debt. And you'd think that that would be a counterbalance to all of this. And then there's also the Trump wild card, which is like the new Fed chair, I mean, wasn't he supposed to, according to Trump, drop rates?
[07:50]
A
Right.
[07:51]
B
So what about the independent action of the Fed? And why don't they just, like, they could just choose to resist some of these market signals and indicators? Is that not a possibility?
[08:01]
A
It's a possibility. I think that, I think, I think that that possibility and the idea that this new Fed chair was going to come in, he's going to align with the President and we're going to see, you know, rate cuts, I think that still persists, like, as a narrative in the market. My view on this is, you know, I just, maybe this is just kind of more instincts, but I just think based on that, that initial press conference we had last week, a lot of the messaging coming out, not just from the Fed chair, but also from other governors on the board, it feels like me that to me, like they need to restore some credibility. And there's basically two mandates. There's inflation and then there's the labor market. And so typically when one side of that is, you know, is showing weakness, they tend to start to support that side of the equation. And I would say that the labor market, you know, on the surface, unemployment is at 4.2%. Unemployment claims are very low right now. And we know that there's, you know, inflation is above target. And so I just think that they have to, from a credibility perspective, they have to focus on that side of the equation right now, the inflation side, inflation side, get inflation down. And so, you know, I sort of think, you know, right now I think the odds of a, of a rate hike from today's, today's meeting, which maybe the meeting will have, have commenced. But once we've published this, the, the odds of a hike today are about 33%, which is kind of interesting in and of itself. That's like the highest sort of, like, uncertainty in terms of what the Fed is going to do going into a meeting we've had in some time. And this is related to lack of forward guidance. And so that's kind of interesting in itself. I don't think they're going to hike today. I do think it's possible we get the hike today, but that would be
[09:56]
B
a surprise, you're saying to you and to the market.
[09:58]
A
If we do get the hike today, I would expect, you know, and it's like, and it's a hawkish hike that would push the markets, you know, down, I think significantly. I'm not really expecting the hike today primarily because we had that lower inflation inflation print. If you didn't, if you didn't hike last, last meeting and then you get a lower inflation print, it's kind of hard for them to, to sort of stand by that. So I'm not really expecting it today, but I do think inflation is probably going to tick up again. We'll have more inflation data in a few weeks and then that would set the stage for the September hike. And I'm sort of expecting like a, you know, a no hike today, but more of like hawkish commentary maybe about that September hike coming forward. And then when you look out sort of through the end of the year where we've got like a, a greater than 50% chance of another hike in December, that the market is, is currently pricing. So, yeah, I just think from a credibility perspective, like, they, they can't just, you know, ignore inflation and when the economy is running hot like this, like cut rates or potentially maybe, maybe just hold. But we'll see. We got the meeting today, so, so we'll find out today.
[11:11]
B
Then the question is, if the Fed does hike, let's say twice for the rest of the year, can the economy take it?
[11:17]
A
Right, Right.
[11:18]
B
The economy does on the surface appear and you make the note to be pretty poised to absorb some higher rates. I mean, things are looking fairly good out there with some of the labor data, at least on the surface, and certainly some of the kind of the GDP type metrics. Stock market is still doing okay, Even though the 8% down from NASDAQ just AI has been such a boom. But when you take a peek under the hood, you see a bit more fragility in the system. Like, you see some fault lines where this whole economic setup could crack. Where are the main fault lines that you're looking at?
[11:55]
A
Yeah, you know, macro is a, is a big topic, so this can go in lots of different directions. What I am primarily focused on is the labor market. The labor market really determines, I think, the health of the economy because the labor market determines the health of the consumer and the consumer is 68% of GDP. And so when I look kind of under the hood of the labor market, we talked about, you know, unemployment's at 4.2%. Unemployment claims have, have been low. When we look at the monthly payroll activity, it's starting to trend down a little bit. So we, we added 214,000 jobs a few months ago. We added 57,000 last month. So. So we're trending down a little bit in this direction. And when you kind of even take it a step further and you look at sort of like, what, what are the quit rates doing out there? This is like voluntary leave for people. So when the economy is healthy, when there's lots of jobs out there, you see a lot of movement. You see a lot of people, you know, just voluntarily leaving their jobs. We haven't been seeing that. We've seen it, seen this, been dropping. And I just think this is showing that there's not a lot of confidence within the workforce about, you know, kind of like greener pastures, right? Being able to leave a job, get a raise, go somewhere else. Those opportunities don't really look like they're there. When we look at other surveys about like, you know, jobs plentiful, things like that, also, also in decline. So, like, payrolls may be rolling over. It looks like the workforce is kind of stuck right now. And then when you look at the personal savings rate, kind of interesting and just that the savings rate, which is the, you know, people's disposable income less their personal outlays, has been in decline. It's actually, you know, at one of the historically low levels right now at like 3%. And I think when you, when you look at sort of the history of that going back to 1959, we've been above that level for 95% of the time. So. So basically, it looks like households are struggling a little bit with their disposable income, getting pinched by inflation. You know, wages are not really keeping up with inflation, and that's causing people to potentially tap into savings to cover that, to cover that gap there. So, yeah, when I, when I look at that, that then leads me to think, okay, well, if the labor market maybe is a little bit weaker under the hood, then that would mean that there's potentially some pain coming on the consumption side. So we've talked about consumer sentiment and that being an important chart for kind of politics and where things are heading. And I think because with consumer sentiment so low, you can kind of see it in the data here. You can see that, you know, disposable income is dropp. We can see that. We think that's because of inflation and people's wages are not necessarily keeping up with those. I think that's bleeding into sort of those sentiment surveys and we're seeing that in the data here as well. So, you know, it just kind of looks like under the surface, you know, there could be some potential cracks. If you raise rates, you know, what does that mean for the ability for banks to continue to lend? One thing that I've been been looking at is the percentage of banks that are tightening their lending standards. This is something you typically see when there's, you know, rate hikes and maybe lower demand, banks will start to pull back a little bit. We've been seeing that drop and we've been seeing bank lending increase over the last six to 12 months. So if that starts to roll over, you know, what does that mean for hiring for capex? And just kind of the health of the labor market is kind of where I'm going with this. But yeah, just, you know, the economy looks healthy on the surface, but if we get these rate hikes, how does that feed through? What does that mean for liquidity is kind of the setup here. And it feels similar to, you know, 2022 when I, when I go back where you did have a pretty healthy economy, but you had a situation where you had inflation that the Fed had had to hike and basically that just like kind of pricked and pulled money out of risk assets for a little while. We didn't get a recession. I'm not calling for a recession, but you sort of reset things a little bit. I think the AI trade we talked about 30% move in a few months. We're seeing that kind of come off now, which, which makes sense. So feels like we're kind of heading for a little bit of a reset here. And this discussion around inflation and Fed policy I think is going to be the primary driver of this.
[16:33]
B
Okay, so let me make sure I understand your setup before I do adding another data point that you emphasized in the report, which is homes under construction actually down. And you say this given its sensitivity to interest rates, housing, which is roughly 16% of the economy, is typically a leading indicator. And now we're seeing homes under construction down 25% from their late 22 peak. So that's another fault line that if you squint, you can kind of see. Let me make sure I understand the setup that you think is a possibility here and maybe is your base case right now, which is the Fed raises rates, hikes rates in order to fight inflation that's coming the horizon. They think they have a long enough leash to do this because the economy looks pretty strong and labor looks fairly robust. It doesn't look weak. But unfortunately what they'll be doing is they'll be raising rates into these fault lines and into some fragility they don't necessarily see on the surface. And that's going to cause kind of a downward spiral type of scenario here. Am I connecting the dots correct or what would you, what would you add to that story?
[17:42]
A
Yeah, I think so. I think, you know, the housing market is definitely something to keep an eye on. You know, higher mortgage rates are, you know, bad for housing. It's a big part of the, part of the economy when you factor in commercial real estate also, which is dependent on, you know, refinancings and lower interest rates. Big swath of the economy that's kind of been going through somewhat of a rolling recession. And you can kind of see it in the construction data there. So with higher mortgage rates, we just haven't seen as much demand for new housing. And that chart's interesting to me just because, you know, that we've rolled off, you know, 25% or so from the peak of, of housing under construction. But that payroll line has not come off. So if we do get rate hikes in it and this, that, that's not going to turn up, that construction line is not going to turn up, then you would think that the payroll, the payrolls line is probably going to have to come down to meet it. And housing tends to be a leading indicator just because it's so sensitive to treasury rates and what's going on with interest rates. So definitely something to keep an eye on there. But I think your summary there basically, you know, covers kind of the setup here where the economy is pretty strong. But, but these rate hikes are likely going to potentially prick things a little bit. And what, where, where I'm looking is like the, the credit spreads. So when you look at credit spreads, which is basically the credit markets pricing, you know, how much, how much risk is in corporate lending, right. It's basically the spread between what the treasury rates are and what, what corporations are able to get financing at that is also very low right now. So it's basically telling us that the market, the credit market looks a little bit complacent related to some of these risks. And if you get rate hikes, I would imagine that credit spreads could start to creep up, people start to look at the balance sheets of these companies, gets harder for them to refinance their debts. That could feed into what I mentioned earlier with the ability or Banks basically tightening lending standards on some of those companies. We know there's a lot of private credit concerns out there that could start to feed through a little bit. So I just kind of think these rate hikes are, yes, the economy's, you know, I don't think we're, I don't think we're going to tip into a recession or anything like that, but it is going to cause some, some reshuffling out there. It's going to probably tighten liquidity conditions a little bit. And we're already, see, I think we're seeing this already, you know, playing out with the NASDAQ down 8,9% since, since the peaks in early June. We've seen, you know, the memory, some of these memory stocks are down 40 know, 30, 40% already, some of them even 50%. So things are definitely, you know, kind of starting to unravel out there and the index itself is starting to come down as well. So, and we haven't had the, the, the, the actual hikes and maybe this is just getting priced in and when we actually get the hikes, it's not as bad as, as we think. But my, my sort of where I'm going with it is I think the crypto markets have mostly front run most of this action. But I think this could potentially tip us into those deep value territories that we've been talking about as we move forward here. So that's really kind of what I'm watching for.
[21:15]
B
I see. So now we see the full macro setup and what you think could play out and how that connects to crypto. And it sounds like the things you're watching are the credit spreads. So kind of the higher spreads, if you see more of that, then that's confirmation that this case is correct. Inflation as well. The next CPI report is due August 12, so that's coming up in a couple of weeks. Also, the dollar has been unusually strong and I guess a stronger dollar would indicate that. What, you know, it's more confirmation of the setup that you're talking about here. Is that correct?
[21:54]
A
Yeah, the dollar has been sort of breaking out about above 100, which is kind of a key level. And what's interesting about that is the Fed hasn't actually hiked yet. So that' like pricing the dollar relative to the euro, the yen, all these other major major economies which have actually been, been hiking and, and they've, they've been on, been on pause. So you know, that's more the market
[22:18]
B
like predicting Fed hikes basically. This dollar strength.
[22:20]
A
Yeah, we're seeing the dollar strength, which means people are, you know, selling other assets and buying dollars. Right. So it kind of makes sense to see that when NASDAQ is coming down, some of these other major economies are now on pause and the dollar is, is rising. If, if, if, if those, those other major economies were actually cutting rates and the dollar was rising, it would make more sense to me that like they're easing. So it would make sense that the dollar would, would reprice against that. But they're on, they're on pause and the Fed hasn't even hiked yet. So if we start hiking and separating ourselves even more from them, you would think that that would get expressed potentially through the dollar as well. Rising dollars tends to be bad for liquidity conditions. And so that's something to keep an eye on as well.
[23:09]
B
Okay, so this is where we get to the full setup I think that you're contemplating here, which is Fed raises rates in order to fight inflation. They think the economy can take it. They think it's strong enough. They're kind of wrong on that front. There's a risk off, sell off, maybe a sell off of risk assets. AI trade speculations kind of could be over. Could the Nasdaq fall another 10 to 15% in that scenario? You say that's certainly possible. You think that crypto has mostly front run this correction. So it's already taken its lumps, it's already taken its pain. However, this last kind of capitulation risk off asset sell could then send Bitcoin to, to below your fair value targets into something closer to deep value. You call that a bumpy landing. And the price point for that deep value territory is around 55k I think. And that's where I recall in the last couple of episodes I asked you, hey, if you had limit orders on, on the books, where would you set your Bitcoin buy price? And you said 55k. So that's a story for how we get to 55k. Let's talk about after that story. So markets freak out. Does the Fed, what does the Fed do next? I think you have this line in here that you were talking about what the Fed might do in the short run versus what they might do in the long run. In the long run, we might be in for, I think you said higher rates and you were going to, you know, publish a report on that soon. But let's say this whole scenario happens. We get the deep value, 55K, there's a NASDAQ sell off. What does the Fed do? They have to then begin relaxing rates in order to help stop the bleeding in the labor markets. Correct. And then what's the setup for crypto assets?
[25:02]
A
Yeah, so I think, you know, if we get these hikes and we got, we got the sell off, I think the market's attention will start to look to turn to inflation and, and getting confident that inflation has peaked. I think when the market becomes confident that inflation has peaked, I think the markets will start to recover. And then, and then moving forward out of that, it really comes, comes down to what's the next move. I would expect the Fed to probably pause and sort of let the market digest what, however many hikes that we actually get during that pause period. You look at inflation, look at what's happening in the labor market and that's going to determine the next phase. From there, if they hike rates and they break things and they really cause a problem, then they're going to have to react pretty quickly to that. I really think that the nothing stops. This train story is ultimately where we're heading. And that's just that these fiscal deficits are not going anywhere. All this spending, the fact that AI is a national security concern, like all of these things really matter. And so I don't see a scenario where they don't respond to things actually breaking out there. And that's the setup where I think demand for Bitcoin really comes back into the equation you mentioned. Like I'm starting to do, I'm thinking a lot about like, what's the bigger picture? We've talked about de globalization and what, you know, we're in the, we're in the middle of restructuring of really global trade where we're, we're going through de globalization, kind of a new world order. We've talked about what that could, can mean for energy prices moving forward. You know, we have demographics and a lot of baby boomers are kind of rolling out of the workforce. There's just many things going on from a high level that sort of point to structural inflation, I think. And so it's possible that, you know, we get these, you know, a couple of rate hikes, we get a pause and we kind of digest what, what that looks like. And maybe we don't get a rate. You know, I'm sort of thinking we're going to get some sort of rate cutting cycle, but it's possible that, that we don't. I mean, last time the Fed cut rates, the long end of the yield curve actually rose. Um, so we could be in that type of environment moving Forward and yeah, what does that look like? We, we, we watched Bitcoin go up 6.7x during a period where the Fed was actually reducing its balance sheet in this, in this last cycle. So I don't think that this means if even if we have structurally higher rates or the Fed is not, you know, out there buying up all the debt and doing, doing QE or yield curve control, I don't think you have to have that for bitcoin to do well. But I do think that that's probably the environment that we're heading into is either because we have these structural issues with the amount of fiscal spend and just what we need to do to keep the economy humming. It's a tough situation there. We might have to do yield curve control at some point to make everything work. And I think this is the environment where gold, Bitcoin, you know, risk assets come, come back at some point. And that's really what I'm trying to position for I think one, if we have this, if we have another risk off moment, I do think that's probably a fat pitch opportunity ahead of sort of what's, what's coming here. And if, if you understand kind of the setup and the need to keep everything moving forward, it's a pretty, I think it's going to be a pretty good opportunity for, for to buy Bitcoin again. So.
[28:42]
B
Okay, so I'm going to ask you about the portfolio to close things out. But there's one last question that's really lingering in my, the thesis and the base case that you lay out for macro here. How closely does that align to the global liquidity indicator and the global liquidity index type of thing that we've referenced in previous reports. So right now if you go to somebody like Michael Howell, he'll tell you that global liquidity is on the downswing and will continue to be on the downswing until it bottoms and then it will go back to the upswing. And he predicts that these scarce assets, the bitcoins, the golds of the world, will really benefit from that upswing type of environment. Does that, is that related to your, the thesis that you laid out in today's report?
[29:32]
A
Yeah, I think I'm, I mostly am aligned with Michael Howell on the global liquidity setup here. He's been really, I think, calling for real, essentially a shift in liquidity to the real economy and outside of the, the financial economy. I think that's, that's now playing out. We've seen kind of like this divergence with global liquidity and Bitcoin, which we've seen in past cycles as well. And so, yeah, I think we're in this, this period here. If, if we see these rate hikes, you know, keep an eye on sort of the move index and the volatility within the bond market, that will definitely cause liquidity to, to dry up a little bit out there. If, if most of the, the major central banks are either on pause or hiking rates, that should cause global liquidity to, to come down. So I think the dollar rising, all of these things. So I think we're in that setup. I think he's been basically calling for this over the last six months or so. We're in that, that setup now. And you know, when does that actually come back? You know, is it, is it, you know, the Fed has to actually pivot out of this, this more hawkish stance and become more dovish again and maybe that's what starts the next liquidity cycle. Yeah, I think I'm largely aligned with that. The crypto markets have somewhat separated from, I think some of that, you know, the liquidity conditions out there earlier in the cycle. And now we're kind of maybe going to bottom as, as it starts to hit really NASDAQ and the rest of the market.
[31:02]
B
So what's your setup for the TDR portfolio then, Mike? How are you playing things? You've got that dry powder. Are you waiting for this deep value dip that if you're right about macro and this thesis plays out that it's more likely than not that we get. Are you just waiting for a particular number there? Are you looking at anything on chain? What are you waiting for in order to deploy the bulk of your dry powder against crypto assets?
[31:29]
A
Yeah, we'll, we'll be back next week with a full like on chain data update again and go and go through some of, some of that data. So we'll revisit that for me. Yeah, so mostly sitting on my hands right now and observing, observing this. If we do have another 15, 20% correction or so, I think that'll be a great buying opportunity. I'm still have, you know, roughly a quarter of the portfolio dry powder. And you know, I think if we do get this like deep value opportunity, this is going to reset kind of the markets. We've talked a lot about market structure and we're roughly 80% of the way there in terms of what the on chain data is telling us. We're roughly 80% there in terms of being almost 10 months into this bear market based on time and so I do think that if we do get this, you know, another, you know, capitulation type situation, this will reset market structure and give us that durable base to kind of build, build into the next expansion. The other thing is like there's been some other crypto assets that have sort of defied the, the bitcoin bear market that have done very well. You know, things like hype, things like zcash, those are starting to roll over now as well. So it looks to me like we're getting closer to like that, like kind of full, just kind of reset across the entire crypto ecosystem, which I think will be help healthy potential buying opportunities on some of those things that we don't have in our portfolio that we've been watching as well.
[32:59]
B
So good reminder on the week. Sometimes the most important thing that you can do as an investor is be patient. Sometimes that is the hardest thing to do. But that's what you are doing, Mike, in today's, I guess in this week and waiting for some of these macro conditions to play out. So guys, thanks so much for joining us. As always, we do this weekly. If you are not subscribed, go subscribe on YouTube, Spotify, Apple, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you like these episodes, do us a favor, send one to a friend. Okay? This is. They're questioning if now is the right time to buy if bitcoin crypto assets have bottomed. I think we've got some great analysis in the TDR that can help them make sense of that question. Gotta end with this. Of course, none of this has been financial advice. This is an investor journal. We're on the journey right alongside you. Until next time, stay curious.

Summary7 min read

Podcast Summary: The DeFi Report

Episode: Can the Economy Handle Rate Hikes?
Date: July 29, 2026
Hosts: Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report), Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless)

Overview

In this episode, Michael Nadeau and Ryan Sean Adams tackle the central question: Can the economy handle incoming rate hikes? Drawing on recent macro data, Fed policy signals, and portfolio strategy, they work through how potential hikes might impact the economy, the AI bubble, and particularly crypto assets like Bitcoin. The discussion spans market reflections, leading economic indicators, and how the current setup compares to previous cycles—culminating in their outlook for investors as volatility looms.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Fed Rate Hikes and Economic Signals

[00:10–03:34]

Markets expect two upcoming Fed hikes; uncertainty is heightened ahead of the afternoon FOMC meeting.
The AI speculation trade, which drove risk assets higher, appears to be “rolling over.”
NASDAQ is down roughly 8–9% from recent highs; Bitcoin is outperforming traditional risk assets.
Central question: If the economy can't handle more hikes, could Bitcoin enter true “deep value” territory?

“It feels like [the AI bubble] is getting pricked… This week's report really focuses more on the economy and Fed policy and kind of where we think we're going here and what that means for Nasdaq and then what that potentially means for bitcoin.” – Michael Nadeau [01:31]

2. Why the Fed Will Likely Hike – The Bond Market’s Message

[03:34–06:38]

The two-year Treasury yield is ~55 basis points above the Fed funds rate—a strong market signal the Fed is behind the curve.
Despite a favorable June CPI print (3.5%), longer-term rates are rising, indicating persistent concerns about inflation.
Economic indicators look strong on the surface: low unemployment, strong fiscal spending, manufacturing in expansion, bank lending is up.
Nadeau draws a parallel to 2022, when the Fed also had to play catch-up to the market.

“It’s the bond market looking at things and saying, you guys are too loose. The economy is really strong right now. We have inflationary impulses and I think the bond market is kind of fading this idea that inflation may be rolling over.” – Michael Nadeau [04:40]

Ryan presses on whether the Fed must obey market signals—are they truly independent? He flags political considerations and the impact of the Trump administration’s new Fed chair.

3. Credibility, Independence & Policy Uncertainty

[06:38–11:11]

Fed independence is questioned, but Nadeau sees credibility/regaining control over inflation as paramount.
Labor market is strong but there are signs of potential softness beneath the surface.
Market is pricing only a 33% probability of a hike at the live meeting, the highest uncertainty in years (“lack of forward guidance”).
Nadeau expects a pause this meeting, hawkish guidance for September, possibly another hike by December.

“…from a credibility perspective… they have to focus on the inflation side, get inflation down.” – Michael Nadeau [08:48]

4. Hidden Fragilities: Labor, Savings, Housing

[11:11–16:32]

Labor Market:
- Unemployment low, but payroll growth is slowing (from 214,000 jobs recently to 57,000 last month).
- Quit rates (voluntary job changes) dropping—workforce feels stuck, less confidence in job mobility.
- Surveys show “jobs plentiful” also declining.
Personal Savings:
- Savings rate has dropped to historic lows (~3%), pointing to stress as incomes struggle to keep pace with inflation.
Consumption:
- Low consumer sentiment; disposable incomes down; signals increasing fragility.
Bank Lending:
- Despite higher rates, bank lending has increased, but if lending standards tighten in response to hikes, this could quickly reverse.
Housing:
- Homes under construction down 25% from late-2022 peak—a sharp drop for a sector highly sensitive to rates (housing = ~16% of economy).

“Basically, it looks like households are struggling a little bit with their disposable income, getting pinched by inflation… I just think this is showing that there's not a lot of confidence within the workforce about greener pastures.” – Michael Nadeau [12:44, 12:16]

5. “Bumpy Landing”: The Risk of Over-Tightening

[16:32–21:15]

The Fed, thinking the economy is robust, might hike into underlying fault lines, risking unintended consequences.
Credit markets: Spreads are currently low, a sign of complacency, but could widen if stress emerges.
The AI bubble: already signs of unwinding, with some tech/memory stocks down 30–50%.
While Nadeau is not calling for outright recession, a tightening cycle could cause a market “reset”—especially for risk assets.

“Credit spreads… are also very low right now. So it’s basically telling us that the credit market looks a little bit complacent… and if you get rate hikes, I would imagine credit spreads could start to creep up.” – Michael Nadeau [18:34]

6. Macro Setup: Liquidity, the Dollar, and Crypto Implications

[21:15–25:01]

Dollar: Recently broke above 100 on the DXY, even before Fed action—a sign investors are moving to safety.
A rising dollar is historically bad for global liquidity and risk assets.
Nadeau’s base case:
1. Fed hikes to “restore credibility”
2. Underlying weaknesses (labor, housing, savings) are exposed
3. Risk-off ensues: NASDAQ could drop another 10–15%
4. Crypto may have front-run much of this, but another leg down is possible (Bitcoin to “deep value” at $55k—see next point)
Fed’s likely response if things break: pause, possibly cut rates. Over the longer term, structurally higher rates and ongoing deficits could re-stoke demand for hard assets (Bitcoin, gold).

“That's the story for how we get to 55k.” – Ryan Sean Adams [23:50]
“I don't see a scenario where they don't respond to things actually breaking… I think demand for Bitcoin really comes back into the equation…” – Michael Nadeau [25:51]

7. The Global Liquidity Backdrop

[28:42–31:01]

Ryan asks how this view aligns with global liquidity indicators (referencing Michael Howell’s work).
Nadeau agrees global liquidity is falling, noting a shift toward the “real economy” rather than financial assets.

“If most of the major central banks are either on pause or hiking rates, that should cause global liquidity to come down… the dollar rising, all of these things… we're in that setup.” – Michael Nadeau [29:32–30:28]

8. Portfolio Strategy: How Are They Positioning?

[31:01–32:59]

Nadeau: Holding significant dry powder; being patient, watching for “capitulation” that would mark a durable base for crypto’s next expansion.
On-chain data suggest ~80% of the bear market cycle may be completed.
Some altcoins (like HYPE and Zcash) have been resilient but are now rolling over—another sign a broad market reset could be near.
Main advice: Patience is critical; wait for macro volatility to play out before deploying capital aggressively.

“Sometimes the most important thing that you can do as an investor is be patient. Sometimes that is the hardest thing to do. But that's what you are doing, Mike…” – Ryan Sean Adams [32:59]

Memorable Quotes & Moments

Ryan on the challenge ahead:
“Will [rate hikes] pop the AI bubble… If it has peaked, what does a falling NASDAQ mean for our crypto assets?” [00:10]
Michael on fragile prosperity:
“The economy looks healthy on the surface, but if we get these rate hikes, how does that feed through?” [15:38]
Ryan on investor discipline:
“Sometimes the most important thing that you can do as an investor is be patient.” [32:59]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Opening & framing the macro question | 00:10–01:31 | | AI bubble, NASDAQ, Bitcoin performance | 01:31–02:37 | | Why the Fed must hike—reading the bond market | 03:34–06:38 | | Fed independence, credibility, and potential trajectories | 06:38–11:11 | | Labor market, savings, and consumer fragility | 11:11–16:32 | | Housing & summary of economic “fault lines” | 16:32–17:41 | | Reset scenario: credit spreads, risk assets | 17:41–21:15 | | Macro setup: liquidity, strong dollar, implications | 21:15–25:01 | | What comes after: Fed response, structural inflation | 25:01–28:42 | | Global liquidity connections | 28:42–31:01 | | Portfolio strategy & closing advice | 31:01–32:59 |

Conclusion

This episode navigates the high-stakes territory of Fed policy, market fragility, and where crypto fits in a tightening cycle. The hosts lay out a thoughtful framework:

The probability of a “bumpy landing” is high if the Fed hikes into hidden fragilities.
Markets may reset—with risk assets suffering further—while crypto could see a final leg down toward “deep value” (Bitcoin ~$55k).
Patience is a position: waiting for more confirmation (on-chain and macro) before redeploying capital is the team’s strategy.

“None of this is financial advice. This is an investor journal. We're on the journey right alongside you. Until next time, stay curious.” – Ryan Sean Adams [32:59]

Loading summary

Transcript28 lines

[00:00]
A
Foreign.
[00:10]
B
Welcome to the report. It is July 29, 2026. The question today, can the economy handle rate hikes? Mike sees a few of those on the horizon. Will they pop the AI bubble? The AI speculation trade. We are almost 10 months into the bear and, and the market, it seems like is pricing two Fed rate hikes today. Of course there's an FOMC meeting this afternoon. Mike and I don't yet know the results of that. As we go into today's recording we should find out though, so maybe listener you will know. But the question today is can the economy handle the rate hikes that Mike believes are headed its way either in this meeting or in the next one. On the surface the economy looks kind of hot and but there's some hidden fragility there that we're going to talk about. Labor savings, housing and this might affect the AI speculation trade. It may have peaked. If it has peaked, what does a falling NASDAQ mean for our crypto assets? And guys want to remind you to stick around to the end. I've got one phrase for you and that is bumpy landing. I've got one price target which is 55k. We will explain what those things mean as at the end of today's episode. So that's our tease. We are recording Mike a few hours before the Fed decision drops. That's going to drop at 2pm Eastern. What are you watching for this afternoon?
[01:32]
A
Yeah, you know, you mentioned like the, the AI bubble, you know, might be kind of rolling over here. It feels like it's, it's getting pricked. I think with just a lot of the, the narratives out there right now with potential rate hikes. You know, a lot of the stuff that went up, you know, or 5x, you know, NASDAQ went up 30% in like a two month period. And so it makes sense that, you know, things are starting to roll over a little bit. I think a lot of this uncertainty around rate hikes is driving a lot of this discussion. We started to hint a little bit last week about some of these macro risks that we're starting to see build out there. This week's report really focuses more on the economy and Fed policy and kind of where we think we're going here and what that means for Nasdaq and then what that potentially means for bitcoin. Bitcoin has been outperforming Nasdaq, which is down I think about 9% from the highs in early June. So bitcoin has been outperforming. The question is, is that going to continue if we see further weakness in that sector.
[02:37]
B
Yeah, I think today's report ends in kind of this, this fork of the road almost. It's a question of whether the economy can handle these hikes or not. If it can't, then maybe bitcoin goes into the deep value territory that you've been talking about so much. If it can, then maybe the lows are already in. You indicate earlier in today's report that you're seeing a lot of signs of seller exhaustion. Maybe not all the way through yet, but a lot of the signs are there. So we'll get into that. At the time of recording, bitcoin price is hovering above 65K. The NASDAQ interestingly is down 8% from its June 2 high. Let's get into the Fed and the decision this afternoon because regardless of the decision this afternoon, I think you still see strong potential for two hikes on the horizon. So let's back up and talk about why the Fed actually has to hike rates in your view.
[03:35]
A
I think they need to hike rates because the market is dictating that. And I think that's kind of the important takeaway here is the Fed is really responsive to market conditions. And one way to kind of look at sort of what the market conditions are doing and what they're telling the Fed is to just look at the two year. This chart here is showing the two year treasury versus the Fed funds rate. The two year is the blue line there and the Fed funds is the dotted green line. And what tends to happen here is the two year leads right in both directions. So when you get a significant separation between that two year and what the Fed is doing, the Fed tends to catch up to it. Right. You can kind of see it, you know, throughout this chart. The Fed will catch up to it. And then that's when, you know, things tend to reverse in the other direction. And what I've been really kind of just watching here is the two year continuing to separate from the Fed funds rate. It's about 55 basis points higher than sort of the top range of the Fed funds rate right now. So I've been watching this build and to me it's the, it's the bond market looking at things and saying, you guys are too, you're, you're too loose. Like the, the economy is really strong right now. We have inflationary impulses and I think the bond market is kind of fading. This idea that inflation may be rolling over. We did have a lower CPI print in June and you would Think maybe that would feed through to, to the rates to the treasury market. And we haven't seen that. We've seen the 10 year continue to rise, we've seen the two year continue to rise. So it's to me it's, the market's telling the Fed they need to raise rates and I think that's normal right when the economy's doing well. When the economy's running hot, this is what you tend to see. Unemployment is pretty low right now. We know there's tons of fiscal spending going on out there. There's a ton of AI capital in the market. So the real economy seems to be doing well. You know, we've talked about the ism. The ISM has been doing well in the manufacturing sector. We're in expansion mode there. Bank lending is up. So when you look at sort of the, I think the health of the economy right now it looks pretty good and that's why they have to hike rates. What I'm trying to do is kind of look forward and say, okay, if they start hiking, what are the, what is going to be sort of the knock on, what's the domino effect on that? Which we'll get into a little bit here as we start to kind of forecast out what this means. But it's starting to feel very similar to kind of like you know, 2022 when we had this same dynamic where the, the two year was racing past and you can see it in the chart, the two year was racing past the Fed funds rate. The Fed had to catch up to that. Once the market became convinced that inflation had peaked it. That's when we actually started to see the markets come back. Even though the Fed continued to hike throughout 2022, the markets bottomed in October or so of that year. So we may be kind of in a similar setup right now.
[06:38]
B
So I understand the idea that you're pushing forward, which is the market is sending clear signals as to what the Fed needs to do and what the Fed will do ultimately. And the market is clearly fading the inflation drop. So there was a nice inflation headline number. A CPI dropped to 3.5% in June. The market it seems to be is saying like that's not durable. Inflation is going to be back on the menu. But I have to ask the question, isn't the Fed an independent actor in all of this? Why is it the case that they have to do what the market wants to do? So I'll give you another scenario here. Maybe the Fed just decides inflation is not a priority. Inflation does not need to be fought. Or there's another case here, which is the wider government. The idea of an independent Fed is like, maybe not quite true. And of course, the higher the Fed fund rates, the lower the interest payment the US Government has to make on its debt. And you'd think that that would be a counterbalance to all of this. And then there's also the Trump wild card, which is like the new Fed chair, I mean, wasn't he supposed to, according to Trump, drop rates?
[07:50]
A
Right.
[07:51]
B
So what about the independent action of the Fed? And why don't they just, like, they could just choose to resist some of these market signals and indicators? Is that not a possibility?
[08:01]
A
It's a possibility. I think that, I think, I think that that possibility and the idea that this new Fed chair was going to come in, he's going to align with the President and we're going to see, you know, rate cuts, I think that still persists, like, as a narrative in the market. My view on this is, you know, I just, maybe this is just kind of more instincts, but I just think based on that, that initial press conference we had last week, a lot of the messaging coming out, not just from the Fed chair, but also from other governors on the board, it feels like me that to me, like they need to restore some credibility. And there's basically two mandates. There's inflation and then there's the labor market. And so typically when one side of that is, you know, is showing weakness, they tend to start to support that side of the equation. And I would say that the labor market, you know, on the surface, unemployment is at 4.2%. Unemployment claims are very low right now. And we know that there's, you know, inflation is above target. And so I just think that they have to, from a credibility perspective, they have to focus on that side of the equation right now, the inflation side, inflation side, get inflation down. And so, you know, I sort of think, you know, right now I think the odds of a, of a rate hike from today's, today's meeting, which maybe the meeting will have, have commenced. But once we've published this, the, the odds of a hike today are about 33%, which is kind of interesting in and of itself. That's like the highest sort of, like, uncertainty in terms of what the Fed is going to do going into a meeting we've had in some time. And this is related to lack of forward guidance. And so that's kind of interesting in itself. I don't think they're going to hike today. I do think it's possible we get the hike today, but that would be
[09:56]
B
a surprise, you're saying to you and to the market.
[09:58]
A
If we do get the hike today, I would expect, you know, and it's like, and it's a hawkish hike that would push the markets, you know, down, I think significantly. I'm not really expecting the hike today primarily because we had that lower inflation inflation print. If you didn't, if you didn't hike last, last meeting and then you get a lower inflation print, it's kind of hard for them to, to sort of stand by that. So I'm not really expecting it today, but I do think inflation is probably going to tick up again. We'll have more inflation data in a few weeks and then that would set the stage for the September hike. And I'm sort of expecting like a, you know, a no hike today, but more of like hawkish commentary maybe about that September hike coming forward. And then when you look out sort of through the end of the year where we've got like a, a greater than 50% chance of another hike in December, that the market is, is currently pricing. So, yeah, I just think from a credibility perspective, like, they, they can't just, you know, ignore inflation and when the economy is running hot like this, like cut rates or potentially maybe, maybe just hold. But we'll see. We got the meeting today, so, so we'll find out today.
[11:11]
B
Then the question is, if the Fed does hike, let's say twice for the rest of the year, can the economy take it?
[11:17]
A
Right, Right.
[11:18]
B
The economy does on the surface appear and you make the note to be pretty poised to absorb some higher rates. I mean, things are looking fairly good out there with some of the labor data, at least on the surface, and certainly some of the kind of the GDP type metrics. Stock market is still doing okay, Even though the 8% down from NASDAQ just AI has been such a boom. But when you take a peek under the hood, you see a bit more fragility in the system. Like, you see some fault lines where this whole economic setup could crack. Where are the main fault lines that you're looking at?
[11:55]
A
Yeah, you know, macro is a, is a big topic, so this can go in lots of different directions. What I am primarily focused on is the labor market. The labor market really determines, I think, the health of the economy because the labor market determines the health of the consumer and the consumer is 68% of GDP. And so when I look kind of under the hood of the labor market, we talked about, you know, unemployment's at 4.2%. Unemployment claims have, have been low. When we look at the monthly payroll activity, it's starting to trend down a little bit. So we, we added 214,000 jobs a few months ago. We added 57,000 last month. So. So we're trending down a little bit in this direction. And when you kind of even take it a step further and you look at sort of like, what, what are the quit rates doing out there? This is like voluntary leave for people. So when the economy is healthy, when there's lots of jobs out there, you see a lot of movement. You see a lot of people, you know, just voluntarily leaving their jobs. We haven't been seeing that. We've seen it, seen this, been dropping. And I just think this is showing that there's not a lot of confidence within the workforce about, you know, kind of like greener pastures, right? Being able to leave a job, get a raise, go somewhere else. Those opportunities don't really look like they're there. When we look at other surveys about like, you know, jobs plentiful, things like that, also, also in decline. So, like, payrolls may be rolling over. It looks like the workforce is kind of stuck right now. And then when you look at the personal savings rate, kind of interesting and just that the savings rate, which is the, you know, people's disposable income less their personal outlays, has been in decline. It's actually, you know, at one of the historically low levels right now at like 3%. And I think when you, when you look at sort of the history of that going back to 1959, we've been above that level for 95% of the time. So. So basically, it looks like households are struggling a little bit with their disposable income, getting pinched by inflation. You know, wages are not really keeping up with inflation, and that's causing people to potentially tap into savings to cover that, to cover that gap there. So, yeah, when I, when I look at that, that then leads me to think, okay, well, if the labor market maybe is a little bit weaker under the hood, then that would mean that there's potentially some pain coming on the consumption side. So we've talked about consumer sentiment and that being an important chart for kind of politics and where things are heading. And I think because with consumer sentiment so low, you can kind of see it in the data here. You can see that, you know, disposable income is dropp. We can see that. We think that's because of inflation and people's wages are not necessarily keeping up with those. I think that's bleeding into sort of those sentiment surveys and we're seeing that in the data here as well. So, you know, it just kind of looks like under the surface, you know, there could be some potential cracks. If you raise rates, you know, what does that mean for the ability for banks to continue to lend? One thing that I've been been looking at is the percentage of banks that are tightening their lending standards. This is something you typically see when there's, you know, rate hikes and maybe lower demand, banks will start to pull back a little bit. We've been seeing that drop and we've been seeing bank lending increase over the last six to 12 months. So if that starts to roll over, you know, what does that mean for hiring for capex? And just kind of the health of the labor market is kind of where I'm going with this. But yeah, just, you know, the economy looks healthy on the surface, but if we get these rate hikes, how does that feed through? What does that mean for liquidity is kind of the setup here. And it feels similar to, you know, 2022 when I, when I go back where you did have a pretty healthy economy, but you had a situation where you had inflation that the Fed had had to hike and basically that just like kind of pricked and pulled money out of risk assets for a little while. We didn't get a recession. I'm not calling for a recession, but you sort of reset things a little bit. I think the AI trade we talked about 30% move in a few months. We're seeing that kind of come off now, which, which makes sense. So feels like we're kind of heading for a little bit of a reset here. And this discussion around inflation and Fed policy I think is going to be the primary driver of this.
[16:33]
B
Okay, so let me make sure I understand your setup before I do adding another data point that you emphasized in the report, which is homes under construction actually down. And you say this given its sensitivity to interest rates, housing, which is roughly 16% of the economy, is typically a leading indicator. And now we're seeing homes under construction down 25% from their late 22 peak. So that's another fault line that if you squint, you can kind of see. Let me make sure I understand the setup that you think is a possibility here and maybe is your base case right now, which is the Fed raises rates, hikes rates in order to fight inflation that's coming the horizon. They think they have a long enough leash to do this because the economy looks pretty strong and labor looks fairly robust. It doesn't look weak. But unfortunately what they'll be doing is they'll be raising rates into these fault lines and into some fragility they don't necessarily see on the surface. And that's going to cause kind of a downward spiral type of scenario here. Am I connecting the dots correct or what would you, what would you add to that story?
[17:42]
A
Yeah, I think so. I think, you know, the housing market is definitely something to keep an eye on. You know, higher mortgage rates are, you know, bad for housing. It's a big part of the, part of the economy when you factor in commercial real estate also, which is dependent on, you know, refinancings and lower interest rates. Big swath of the economy that's kind of been going through somewhat of a rolling recession. And you can kind of see it in the construction data there. So with higher mortgage rates, we just haven't seen as much demand for new housing. And that chart's interesting to me just because, you know, that we've rolled off, you know, 25% or so from the peak of, of housing under construction. But that payroll line has not come off. So if we do get rate hikes in it and this, that, that's not going to turn up, that construction line is not going to turn up, then you would think that the payroll, the payrolls line is probably going to have to come down to meet it. And housing tends to be a leading indicator just because it's so sensitive to treasury rates and what's going on with interest rates. So definitely something to keep an eye on there. But I think your summary there basically, you know, covers kind of the setup here where the economy is pretty strong. But, but these rate hikes are likely going to potentially prick things a little bit. And what, where, where I'm looking is like the, the credit spreads. So when you look at credit spreads, which is basically the credit markets pricing, you know, how much, how much risk is in corporate lending, right. It's basically the spread between what the treasury rates are and what, what corporations are able to get financing at that is also very low right now. So it's basically telling us that the market, the credit market looks a little bit complacent related to some of these risks. And if you get rate hikes, I would imagine that credit spreads could start to creep up, people start to look at the balance sheets of these companies, gets harder for them to refinance their debts. That could feed into what I mentioned earlier with the ability or Banks basically tightening lending standards on some of those companies. We know there's a lot of private credit concerns out there that could start to feed through a little bit. So I just kind of think these rate hikes are, yes, the economy's, you know, I don't think we're, I don't think we're going to tip into a recession or anything like that, but it is going to cause some, some reshuffling out there. It's going to probably tighten liquidity conditions a little bit. And we're already, see, I think we're seeing this already, you know, playing out with the NASDAQ down 8,9% since, since the peaks in early June. We've seen, you know, the memory, some of these memory stocks are down 40 know, 30, 40% already, some of them even 50%. So things are definitely, you know, kind of starting to unravel out there and the index itself is starting to come down as well. So, and we haven't had the, the, the, the actual hikes and maybe this is just getting priced in and when we actually get the hikes, it's not as bad as, as we think. But my, my sort of where I'm going with it is I think the crypto markets have mostly front run most of this action. But I think this could potentially tip us into those deep value territories that we've been talking about as we move forward here. So that's really kind of what I'm watching for.
[21:15]
B
I see. So now we see the full macro setup and what you think could play out and how that connects to crypto. And it sounds like the things you're watching are the credit spreads. So kind of the higher spreads, if you see more of that, then that's confirmation that this case is correct. Inflation as well. The next CPI report is due August 12, so that's coming up in a couple of weeks. Also, the dollar has been unusually strong and I guess a stronger dollar would indicate that. What, you know, it's more confirmation of the setup that you're talking about here. Is that correct?
[21:54]
A
Yeah, the dollar has been sort of breaking out about above 100, which is kind of a key level. And what's interesting about that is the Fed hasn't actually hiked yet. So that' like pricing the dollar relative to the euro, the yen, all these other major major economies which have actually been, been hiking and, and they've, they've been on, been on pause. So you know, that's more the market
[22:18]
B
like predicting Fed hikes basically. This dollar strength.
[22:20]
A
Yeah, we're seeing the dollar strength, which means people are, you know, selling other assets and buying dollars. Right. So it kind of makes sense to see that when NASDAQ is coming down, some of these other major economies are now on pause and the dollar is, is rising. If, if, if, if those, those other major economies were actually cutting rates and the dollar was rising, it would make more sense to me that like they're easing. So it would make sense that the dollar would, would reprice against that. But they're on, they're on pause and the Fed hasn't even hiked yet. So if we start hiking and separating ourselves even more from them, you would think that that would get expressed potentially through the dollar as well. Rising dollars tends to be bad for liquidity conditions. And so that's something to keep an eye on as well.
[23:09]
B
Okay, so this is where we get to the full setup I think that you're contemplating here, which is Fed raises rates in order to fight inflation. They think the economy can take it. They think it's strong enough. They're kind of wrong on that front. There's a risk off, sell off, maybe a sell off of risk assets. AI trade speculations kind of could be over. Could the Nasdaq fall another 10 to 15% in that scenario? You say that's certainly possible. You think that crypto has mostly front run this correction. So it's already taken its lumps, it's already taken its pain. However, this last kind of capitulation risk off asset sell could then send Bitcoin to, to below your fair value targets into something closer to deep value. You call that a bumpy landing. And the price point for that deep value territory is around 55k I think. And that's where I recall in the last couple of episodes I asked you, hey, if you had limit orders on, on the books, where would you set your Bitcoin buy price? And you said 55k. So that's a story for how we get to 55k. Let's talk about after that story. So markets freak out. Does the Fed, what does the Fed do next? I think you have this line in here that you were talking about what the Fed might do in the short run versus what they might do in the long run. In the long run, we might be in for, I think you said higher rates and you were going to, you know, publish a report on that soon. But let's say this whole scenario happens. We get the deep value, 55K, there's a NASDAQ sell off. What does the Fed do? They have to then begin relaxing rates in order to help stop the bleeding in the labor markets. Correct. And then what's the setup for crypto assets?
[25:02]
A
Yeah, so I think, you know, if we get these hikes and we got, we got the sell off, I think the market's attention will start to look to turn to inflation and, and getting confident that inflation has peaked. I think when the market becomes confident that inflation has peaked, I think the markets will start to recover. And then, and then moving forward out of that, it really comes, comes down to what's the next move. I would expect the Fed to probably pause and sort of let the market digest what, however many hikes that we actually get during that pause period. You look at inflation, look at what's happening in the labor market and that's going to determine the next phase. From there, if they hike rates and they break things and they really cause a problem, then they're going to have to react pretty quickly to that. I really think that the nothing stops. This train story is ultimately where we're heading. And that's just that these fiscal deficits are not going anywhere. All this spending, the fact that AI is a national security concern, like all of these things really matter. And so I don't see a scenario where they don't respond to things actually breaking out there. And that's the setup where I think demand for Bitcoin really comes back into the equation you mentioned. Like I'm starting to do, I'm thinking a lot about like, what's the bigger picture? We've talked about de globalization and what, you know, we're in the, we're in the middle of restructuring of really global trade where we're, we're going through de globalization, kind of a new world order. We've talked about what that could, can mean for energy prices moving forward. You know, we have demographics and a lot of baby boomers are kind of rolling out of the workforce. There's just many things going on from a high level that sort of point to structural inflation, I think. And so it's possible that, you know, we get these, you know, a couple of rate hikes, we get a pause and we kind of digest what, what that looks like. And maybe we don't get a rate. You know, I'm sort of thinking we're going to get some sort of rate cutting cycle, but it's possible that, that we don't. I mean, last time the Fed cut rates, the long end of the yield curve actually rose. Um, so we could be in that type of environment moving Forward and yeah, what does that look like? We, we, we watched Bitcoin go up 6.7x during a period where the Fed was actually reducing its balance sheet in this, in this last cycle. So I don't think that this means if even if we have structurally higher rates or the Fed is not, you know, out there buying up all the debt and doing, doing QE or yield curve control, I don't think you have to have that for bitcoin to do well. But I do think that that's probably the environment that we're heading into is either because we have these structural issues with the amount of fiscal spend and just what we need to do to keep the economy humming. It's a tough situation there. We might have to do yield curve control at some point to make everything work. And I think this is the environment where gold, Bitcoin, you know, risk assets come, come back at some point. And that's really what I'm trying to position for I think one, if we have this, if we have another risk off moment, I do think that's probably a fat pitch opportunity ahead of sort of what's, what's coming here. And if, if you understand kind of the setup and the need to keep everything moving forward, it's a pretty, I think it's going to be a pretty good opportunity for, for to buy Bitcoin again. So.
[28:42]
B
Okay, so I'm going to ask you about the portfolio to close things out. But there's one last question that's really lingering in my, the thesis and the base case that you lay out for macro here. How closely does that align to the global liquidity indicator and the global liquidity index type of thing that we've referenced in previous reports. So right now if you go to somebody like Michael Howell, he'll tell you that global liquidity is on the downswing and will continue to be on the downswing until it bottoms and then it will go back to the upswing. And he predicts that these scarce assets, the bitcoins, the golds of the world, will really benefit from that upswing type of environment. Does that, is that related to your, the thesis that you laid out in today's report?
[29:32]
A
Yeah, I think I'm, I mostly am aligned with Michael Howell on the global liquidity setup here. He's been really, I think, calling for real, essentially a shift in liquidity to the real economy and outside of the, the financial economy. I think that's, that's now playing out. We've seen kind of like this divergence with global liquidity and Bitcoin, which we've seen in past cycles as well. And so, yeah, I think we're in this, this period here. If, if we see these rate hikes, you know, keep an eye on sort of the move index and the volatility within the bond market, that will definitely cause liquidity to, to dry up a little bit out there. If, if most of the, the major central banks are either on pause or hiking rates, that should cause global liquidity to, to come down. So I think the dollar rising, all of these things. So I think we're in that setup. I think he's been basically calling for this over the last six months or so. We're in that, that setup now. And you know, when does that actually come back? You know, is it, is it, you know, the Fed has to actually pivot out of this, this more hawkish stance and become more dovish again and maybe that's what starts the next liquidity cycle. Yeah, I think I'm largely aligned with that. The crypto markets have somewhat separated from, I think some of that, you know, the liquidity conditions out there earlier in the cycle. And now we're kind of maybe going to bottom as, as it starts to hit really NASDAQ and the rest of the market.
[31:02]
B
So what's your setup for the TDR portfolio then, Mike? How are you playing things? You've got that dry powder. Are you waiting for this deep value dip that if you're right about macro and this thesis plays out that it's more likely than not that we get. Are you just waiting for a particular number there? Are you looking at anything on chain? What are you waiting for in order to deploy the bulk of your dry powder against crypto assets?
[31:29]
A
Yeah, we'll, we'll be back next week with a full like on chain data update again and go and go through some of, some of that data. So we'll revisit that for me. Yeah, so mostly sitting on my hands right now and observing, observing this. If we do have another 15, 20% correction or so, I think that'll be a great buying opportunity. I'm still have, you know, roughly a quarter of the portfolio dry powder. And you know, I think if we do get this like deep value opportunity, this is going to reset kind of the markets. We've talked a lot about market structure and we're roughly 80% of the way there in terms of what the on chain data is telling us. We're roughly 80% there in terms of being almost 10 months into this bear market based on time and so I do think that if we do get this, you know, another, you know, capitulation type situation, this will reset market structure and give us that durable base to kind of build, build into the next expansion. The other thing is like there's been some other crypto assets that have sort of defied the, the bitcoin bear market that have done very well. You know, things like hype, things like zcash, those are starting to roll over now as well. So it looks to me like we're getting closer to like that, like kind of full, just kind of reset across the entire crypto ecosystem, which I think will be help healthy potential buying opportunities on some of those things that we don't have in our portfolio that we've been watching as well.
[32:59]
B
So good reminder on the week. Sometimes the most important thing that you can do as an investor is be patient. Sometimes that is the hardest thing to do. But that's what you are doing, Mike, in today's, I guess in this week and waiting for some of these macro conditions to play out. So guys, thanks so much for joining us. As always, we do this weekly. If you are not subscribed, go subscribe on YouTube, Spotify, Apple, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you like these episodes, do us a favor, send one to a friend. Okay? This is. They're questioning if now is the right time to buy if bitcoin crypto assets have bottomed. I think we've got some great analysis in the TDR that can help them make sense of that question. Gotta end with this. Of course, none of this has been financial advice. This is an investor journal. We're on the journey right alongside you. Until next time, stay curious.