Podcast
The DeFi Report
Hosted by Michael Nadeau · EN
Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.
20episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Momentum is slowing as macro risks are rising
2d ago00:33:51Tap to summarizeBitcoin just closed above a key bear market resistance level, but Mike still isn’t ready to call a regime shift. Ryan and Mike break down why this rally looks stretched, what $79K, $82.7K, and $85K are signaling, how weak spot volume and rising macro risk could slow momentum, and why June may be the real test for bulls.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:45 Bear Market Symmetry6:00 Comparing Past Cycles14:05 Who’s Selling at 80K?19:23 Weak Market Conditions23:10 Momentum Starts Fading27:37 June’s Historical Weakness29:12 Key Bitcoin Price Levels32:40 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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Are we still in a bear market rally?
1w ago00:35:12Tap to summarizeBitcoin just completed the longest bear market rally of the last two cycles, but under the hood, the data still looks eerily similar to 2022. Mike and Ryan break down the battle between shorts and spot buyers, why $85K may decide the market, what ETF flows and Saylor’s bid are really signaling, and the setup that could trap both bulls and bears.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/rss https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro3:03 Market Dynamics and Institutional Influence5:53 Trader Sentiment & Market Positioning10:04 Spot Market Analysis15:10 ETF Flows & Institutional Demand19:06 Market Structure & Cycle Analysis21:09 Bitcoin's Correlation & NASDAQ26:05 Critical Price Zones for Bitcoin30:12 Mike's Investment Strategy & Market Outlook33:17 The Marshmallow Test 34:17 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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Still Patient? Why This Bitcoin Rally May Be on Borrowed Time
2w ago00:40:44Tap to summarizeBitcoin has the “perfect” bull setup, record shorts, aggressive squeezes, and billions in buying, yet it still can’t break $80K. Ryan and Mike unpack why that disconnect matters, from weak spot demand and short-term holder behavior to fading liquidity tailwinds, and what past cycles suggest comes next. They also break down the key level that decides the market, and how to position if this rally is on borrowed time.----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro3:57 Bitcoin Market Dynamics6:51 Short-Term Holder Insights15:22 Fed Policy Implications19:31 Liquidity and Economic Outlook27:44 Crypto Portfolio Strategy30:09 Navigating Altcoin Markets38:47 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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Why This Rally May Be Too Early
3w ago00:32:33Tap to summarizeBitcoin is pushing back toward $80K, but the underlying data still looks like a classic bear market setup. Mike and Ryan break down why “hot money” from the 2025 top hasn’t fully rotated yet, how past cycles suggest more downside or time is needed, and why dip buyers may be stepping in too early. They also explain what real bottom formation looks like onchain and why this rally could be more about positioning than a true shift in trend. ----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:44 Mike's Evolving Thinking on Altcoins5:12 Analyzing Bitcoin's Cost Basis Data8:11 Understanding Bitcoin's Cohorts10:08 Exploring New & Old Money Patterns14:20 Comparing Cohorts Across Cycles18:09 Key Takeaways from the Cohort Analysis26:33 Portfolio Moves & Strategy Discussion32:07 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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The Bottom Is Not In! Why We Get 4-Year Cycles
Apr 1500:46:16Tap to summarizeBitcoin is up 19% from the February lows, but Mike argues this still looks more like a bear market bounce than a true bottom. He and Ryan break down why weak ETF flows, soft onchain activity, fading risk appetite, and rolling liquidity still do not look like the kind of setup that usually marks a durable low. They also map out the key BTC levels that would force a change in view, and what real capitulation tends to look like when the cycle finally turns.----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:50 Polling Investor Sentiment4:22 The Four-Year Cycle Explained13:02 Market Dynamics and Investor Psychology17:17 Examining Current Liquidity Conditions27:31 Fiscal Policy and Its Impact29:07 On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin39:10 Understanding Market Trends and Patterns44:04 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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Ceasefire Trap? Bulls vs. Bears—Who Wins?
Apr 800:36:34Tap to summarizeMarkets ripped on the Iran ceasefire headlines, but Mike says the bigger bearish process may still be unfolding.Mike and David break down why Bitcoin, oil, global liquidity, and the S&P’s 200-day moving average are all flashing mixed signals, and why the real bottom may still require more pain, patience, and weak-hand capitulation.----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro2:56 Market Reactions to Ceasefire6:28 Analyzing the Bull & Bear Cases11:02 The Pessimist's Perspective15:34 Iran's Strategic Position22:37 Understanding the Liquidity Cycle26:58 The Long-Term View on Bitcoin31:34 Short-Term Market Signals36:08 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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BTC Cycle Low? & Views on macro, altcoins, & crypto equities
Apr 100:35:59Tap to summarizeBitcoin is down 47% from the highs, but Mike says the real “fat pitch” still hasn’t arrived.Mike and Ryan break down where BTC could actually bottom using realized price, the 200-week moving average, and deep value onchain signals, plus why oil, Iran, rates, and recession risk still matter more than most crypto investors think.----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro2:16 Buffett's Market Perspective4:45 Galaxy One Staking Launch6:31 War's Impact on Markets11:07 Energy Crisis Analysis14:03 Fed Rate Predictions18:11 Speculating on Trump's Announcement24:50 Bitcoin Price Analysis28:14 Deep Value & Market Strategy32:53 Altcoins & Crypto Equities35:04 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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Nasdaq vs. Bitcoin: Surviving the 200-Day Breakdown
Mar 2500:37:05Tap to summarizeThe Nasdaq just broke its 200-day moving average. In 2022, that was the signal for a 35% collapse. Is history repeating?Mike and Ryan dive into the "Complacency Trap," why the war in Iran is actually a strategic play for China’s oil, and the onchain data suggesting Bitcoin hasn't hit "Deep Value" yet. They also break down the 2022 analog, the 6.4% mortgage rate reality, and why the "Trump Prize" won't save the markets this time.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:43 Market Complacency & The War in Iran7:45 Geopolitical Implications of Oil10:04 The US-China Connection13:26 Lessons from 202216:44 On-Chain Bitcoin Insights22:14 Risk Asset Market Psychology26:33 ETF Inflows and Market Health28:54 Bitcoin Price Targets32:44 TDR Portfolio Update33:56 Patience in Bear Markets36:28 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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Saylor is Back: How does this impact market structure?
Mar 1800:36:48Tap to summarizeBitcoin is ripping while stocks and gold stall, and Michael Saylor just dropped billions into BTC. So… is this a real regime shift or just another 2022-style fake rally?Ryan and Mike break down the macro, why liquidity is quietly tightening, how Saylor’s new capital machine is changing market structure, and why this rally may not be as bullish as it looks.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:36 Bitcoin's Performance Amid Geopolitical Conflict4:24 Global Liquidity and Its Implications8:40 Inflation and Federal Reserve Challenges12:38 Bitcoin Market Structure Analysis19:23 Michael Saylor's Strategic Purchases27:57 Exploring Hype and Market Trends35:33 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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Bitcoin Network Health Check: Assessing Thesis & New Risks
Mar 1100:43:10Tap to summarizeMike and Ryan re-underwrite the Bitcoin thesis with a full network health check: hash rate, miner incentives, active addresses, ETF adoption, treasury firms, and BTC’s performance vs Nasdaq and gold. They also dig into the biggest risks ahead, including security budget pressure, miner concentration, and quantum computing, before explaining why they still view Bitcoin as a core portfolio asset this cycle.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro2:31 Institutional Insights on Bitcoin4:24 Mining & Network Security8:08 Fees & Block Rewards11:20 Security Budget Risks14:25 The Future of Mining15:57 Address Trends & Activity22:48 Institutional Adoption Surge25:01 Treasury Firms & Bitcoin28:03 Bitcoin vs. Other Assets30:51 Quantum Computing Concerns33:34 The Future of Bitcoin36:43 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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