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Bitcoin is up 19% from the February lows, but Mike argues this still looks more like a bear market bounce than a true bottom. He and Ryan break down why weak ETF flows, soft onchain activity, fading risk appetite, and rolling liquidity still do not look like the kind of setup that usually marks a durable low. They also map out the key BTC levels that would force a change in view, and what real capitulation tends to look like when the cycle finally turns.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:50 Polling Investor Sentiment

4:22 The Four-Year Cycle Explained

13:02 Market Dynamics and Investor Psychology

17:17 Examining Current Liquidity Conditions

27:31 Fiscal Policy and Its Impact

29:07 On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin

39:10 Understanding Market Trends and Patterns

44:04 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.