Podcast Summary: The Exchange (CNBC) — "AI Pullback, Homebuilder Hope & the Next Big IPO" (Aired: December 12, 2025)

Overview

This episode of The Exchange, hosted by Kelly Evans, dives into three major topics shaping the business and investment landscape as 2025 draws to a close: The recent pullback in AI-related tech stocks, the evolving outlook for homebuilders amidst shifting market conditions, and the anticipation surrounding next year’s mega-IPO—SpaceX. Also up for discussion: new federal moves on AI regulation and their implications, as well as a check-in on IPO markets and macroeconomic signals.

AI Stock Pullback: Sector Under Pressure

(01:00–11:00)

• Market Recap: The tech sector, specifically AI-related stocks, is experiencing a notable slide—Nvidia is down 9% for December, Oracle off 14% this week, and Broadcom’s stock fell nearly 11% in less than a day post-earnings, despite strong headline results.
• Commodities and Yields: Silver dropped over 4% after hitting a recent high, gold erased gains, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.18%, widening the spread with 2-year yields (currently at 65 basis points). Rick Santelli analyzed this move later in the episode.

Deep Dive: Broadcom’s Plunge

• Christina Partsinevelos (03:00): Broadcom reported a robust quarter with AI revenue up 74% YoY and a $73B backlog, but shares tanked due to:
  • Margin pressure: Second half 2026 includes $21B of lower-margin rack shipments for Anthropic and OpenAI, affecting overall profit profile.
  • Backlog miss: Beat estimates but missed the bullish "whisper" number ($73B actual vs. hopes for $80B+).
  • Valuation: Broadcom's stock trades at a significant premium to Nvidia (38x vs. 25x forward earnings).
  • Investor sentiment: “Today could just be pure profit taking from investors who've had a long run. Or, as Jeffrey puts it, folks looking for any reason to, quote, ‘take exposure down.’” (Christina Partsinevelos, 04:40)

Oracle’s Data Center Woes

• Seema Modi (05:40): Oracle's delays in new data centers for OpenAI (per a Bloomberg report) spooked the market, raising concerns about supply chain and financing. Oracle denies delays, affirming all milestones are on track with OpenAI (13:14).
  • The uncertainty revived focus on Oracle’s debt: “They need to do something on the financing front... These data center leases suggest [a debt offering] would have to happen earlier next year.” (Seema Modi, 05:56)

Broader Sector Outlook

• Jay Goldberg, Seaport Global (07:07):
  • Believes concerns about Broadcom’s customer concentration and competition are overblown; thinks debt exposure is a bigger issue for Nvidia and the “neo cloud” sector.
  • Notable quote: “There’s a lot of all these stocks... wrapped up in the broader AI trade where there’s not a lot of room for error... Broadcom is probably one of the best-run companies in semiconductors today...I think they’re actually going to be a net share [gainer] next year.” (Jay Goldberg, 07:07)
  • Sees risks ahead: “Probably next year the bloom will come off the rose, the trade will fall apart. There’ll be a lot of pain and suffering in some sectors. But then... will emerge the real AI applications and the real new crop of interesting companies…” (Jay Goldberg, 09:39)

Rotation to Broader Market

• Tim Seymour, Seymour Asset Management (11:07):
  • Embraces current market rotation: “The other 493 [S&P components] are not only reaping some of the benefits of AI... you are seeing EPS growth, you are seeing margin accretion as opposed to what we’re all debating today...” (Tim Seymour, 11:18)
  • Likes financials, industrials, health care, and banks amid cyclicality and margin improvements.

Housing Market: Pullbacks and Builder Hope

(17:42–24:58)

• Homeowner Equity Decline: Diana Olik (18:20) reports that borrower equity fell 2.1% in Q3—a total loss of $373.8B. Still, total net equity is $17.1 trillion, and home values remain ~52% above January 2020 levels.
  • “Q3 decline translates to a loss of $13,400 per homeowner... but not even 1/10th of what we saw during the Great Recession.” (Diana Olik, 18:40)
• Negative Equity and Regional Variance: Los Angeles, San Francisco, DC, and Miami lead in losses; Boston, Chicago, and New York remain strong.

Homebuilders’ Perspective

• John Lavallo, UBS (21:15):
  • Predicts a better 2026 for housing: “Inventory has been right-sized across most markets. The intent to buy is still very strong... Mortgage rates are down, builder inflation... moderating.” (John Lavallo, 21:15)
  • Sees strong long-term fundamentals; current negative headlines are seasonal and sentiment-driven.
  • Builders have the advantage of rate buy-downs, flexible construction (smaller homes, efficient builds), and leverage over existing home sellers.
  • Inflection Point: “We think when we start to see a bit of a bottom in consumer confidence, these stocks are going to really rip and... all rip together.” (John Lavallo, 24:09)

IPO Market and SpaceX Anticipation

(32:00–37:33)

• Wealthfront IPO: Opens at $14—the pricing level—and slips fractionally; latest in a string of “boring” but functional IPOs.
• Dan Primack, Axios, on IPO Trends (32:52):
  • “The real thing we haven’t gotten this year is the massive, massive offering… Medline could be the largest IPO since Rivian in 2021.”
  • Private capital still abundant; companies don’t “need” to go public as before. “If you’re a founder... you can do tenders now... there’s not a compelling reason necessarily for them to go public.”
• SpaceX Mega-IPO Hopes:
  • Elon Musk confirms plans for a public offering next year; questions remain on timing and rationale.
  • “If you get a couple [of] massive IPOs, and SpaceX would be the biggest, that maybe means you don’t see as many other IPOs, because the fee stream is satisfied...They don’t need to [do] 20 to go out. They just need SpaceX.” (Dan Primack, 35:49)
  • On M&A: “This is the second busiest year for M and A ever in terms of dollars.” (Dan Primack, 37:15)

AI Regulation: National Move & Global Competition

(40:00–47:08)

• President Trump’s Executive Order (EO): Blocks states from enforcing their own AI regulations, aiming for a single national standard to support U.S. competitiveness with China.

• Deirdre Bosa’s Analysis (39:58):

  • The EO intended to prevent “companies bogged down with 50 different approvals,” but risks creating a regulatory vacuum.
  • China’s approach: tight regulation, censorship, and content control but fast acceleration of AI deployment. “Critics say... national regulation can turn into no regulation at all. And the industry actually needs clear rules to build.”

• Meta’s Use of Chinese AI Models

  • New reporting suggests Meta may be training its next AI model on China’s Alibaba “Quinn” model, closely paralleling how DeepSeek advanced by “distilling” outputs from OpenAI models.

• Alex Stamos, Corridor/Former Facebook CSO (42:38):

  • Explains “distillation”—training a model by mimicking another model’s outputs—is becoming standard, though “kind of frowned upon... [but also] a standard... way to bootstrap your model.”
  • On regulation: “The president generally does not have the ability to change state law... I absolutely agree we should have a federal framework, but... from Congress. My fear here is the AI industry is heading towards the same kind of danger we had in social media a decade ago… they push back on any possible regulatory framework... ended up with there basically being no rules and now a huge amount of pushback...” (Alex Stamos, 44:34)
  • Suggests a risk-based, application-focused framework for AI safety rather than simply regulating core models.
  • On current AI models: “I’m using Anthropic a lot. Opus 4.5 is fantastic. That’s my favorite model these days.” (Alex Stamos, 46:56)

Other Notable Segments

• Rick Santelli on Yield Curve (27:11–30:20): Yield curve steepening is “mostly bullish,” but sticky inflation remains a concern. It's a global phenomenon, shared with Canada and other developed markets.
• Quick News Updates:
  • President Trump's pardon power limits; state of emergency in Washington (flooding); Congressional Gold Medals to 1980 "Miracle on Ice" hockey team (30:21–31:37).
• Market Movers: Lululemon up 10% post earnings and CEO change; other tech and industrial stocks volatile amid broader AI shakeout.

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “There’s a lot of all these stocks... wrapped up in the broader AI trade where there’s not a lot of room for error. And I think if you look at Broadcom, just their numbers were really good, quarter is good, outlook was good. The problem is they weren’t good enough.”
  — Jay Goldberg, Seaport Global (07:07)

• “We’re not concerned about prices falling.”
  — John Lavallo, UBS (22:08)

• “If you get a couple [of] massive IPOs, and SpaceX would be the biggest, that maybe means you don’t see as many other IPOs, because the fee stream is satisfied.”
  — Dan Primack, Axios (35:49)

• “My fear here is that the AI industry is heading towards the same kind of danger we had in social media a decade ago, where... ended up with there basically being no rules and now a huge amount of pushback from a number of democracies, including Australia, including Europe.”
  — Alex Stamos (44:34)

Key Timestamps

• 01:00–11:00: Tech/A.I. slide, Broadcom and Oracle analysis, market sector impacts
• 17:42–24:58: Housing market equity, homebuilder stocks, builder outlook
• 32:00–37:33: Wealthfront IPO, SpaceX IPO prospects, M&A dynamics
• 39:58–47:08: AI regulation executive order, U.S.-China competition, guest analysis on AI model training and safety
• 27:11–30:20: Yield curve & economic outlook (Rick Santelli)

Conclusion

This episode highlights a pivotal moment in markets and policy. Despite volatility in tech stocks and housing, optimism remains for homebuilders and broader market sectors. The upcoming SpaceX IPO is set to mark a new era for U.S. markets, while questions swirl around AI regulation and the increasingly complex AI arms race between America and China. The tone is analytical, often skeptical, but ultimately forward-looking as the show dissects fast-evolving risks and opportunities for investors in 2026 and beyond.