The Exchange – CNBC

Episode: "AI's Biggest Winner, AI's Newest Victim, and Housing's Huge Miss"
Date: February 12, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans

Overview

This episode dives deep into the effects of the AI boom on public markets, focusing on who stands to win and lose most from AI advancements – particularly in hardware, software, transportation, and real estate. The show features market analysis, expert interviews, and a detailed look at the worsening situation in US residential housing. The tone is urgent and analytical, reflecting heightened market volatility.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Selloff & AI Disruption Fears

• [00:57-02:51] The major indices were down sharply (NASDAQ -424, Dow -666, 10-year yield at 4.12%) amid a selloff blamed largely on anticipated disruption from AI, hitting diverse sectors:
  • Trucking: Companies like C.H. Robinson (-22%), Expeditors, RXO all down
  • Commercial Real Estate: CBRE (-15%), Newmark (-10%) and more, with two-day declines totaling ~20%
• Hardware/memory suppliers (Sandisk, Western Digital, Seagate) are up massively (~40% monthly gains).

2. The Winners & Losers in AI Hardware/Software

Memory Squeeze:

• Guest: Mehdi Hosseini, Senior Analyst, Susquehanna
• [02:51-08:50]
• AI-fueled demand has led to a severe spike in memory prices, benefiting producers but squeezing downstream OEMs:
  • "OEMs… unable to pass on the extra cost to the end customer. We thought 60-70% of costs could be passed on, but memory price increases have been more than expected, and OEMs’ ability to pass on costs is even more limited." – Mehdi Hosseini [02:51]
  • Companies relying more on memory—Dell, HP, NetApp, Pure Storage—are seeing heavier margin pressure than companies like Cisco or Apple (who may have more diversified revenue streams or downward pricing flexibility).
  • “This could potentially last into ‘27... the margin pressure could intensify into mid or latter part of ‘26." – Mehdi Hosseini [05:24]
  • For consumers, it's unclear how much higher prices for laptops, phones, and other devices will go, but enterprise customers might absorb more of the cost than individuals.

3. Value Investing in an AI World

Who are the "safe" bets amidst disruption?

• Guest: Chris Grisanti, Chief Market Strategist, MAI Capital Management
• [10:02-16:34]
• "It's a great time to be a value investor finally...we absolutely love Nvidia and Microsoft. Both are selling at 10-year low valuations on next year's forward earnings." – Chris Grisanti [10:03/10:51]
• He argues the real question is not which firms will benefit from AI, but which will receive the massive AI spending. Microsoft and Nvidia are positioned as both growth and value stocks right now.
• Warns against trying to “pick the falling knife” among disrupted names (e.g., Adobe, Booking) unless they have truly unique assets (e.g., Intercontinental Exchange with proprietary data).
• "There's clearly baby getting thrown out with the bathwater here...stick with what you know best." – Grisanti [13:27]
• Market volatility seen as potential opportunity: reminiscent of late 90s pre-dotcom boom convulsions (but not the same bubble valuations).
• "I think we have panic and I think that spells opportunity for careful investors." – Grisanti [16:04]

4. Data Center Hardware: Behind-the-Scenes AI Powerhouses

• Guest: Edwin Rocks, CEO, TTM Technologies
• [18:45-23:19]
• TTM, a major circuit board supplier for data centers, is riding the wave of physical infrastructure investments for AI. "About 30% of our business is in data centers and networking, and that's basically riding the wave at the moment." – Edwin Rocks [19:09]
• They are not seeing major supply chain constraints and believe they can meet expected 15-20% annual growth for the next three years.
• TTM is deploying AI in its own operations for tasks like optical inspection of circuits, and plans to expand hiring both in production (18,000 employees currently) and R&D to keep pace with rapid innovation cycles.

5. AI’s Newest Victim: Trucking & Transport Sell-Off

• Report: Frank Holland
• [26:30-28:57]
• A brutal day for trucking brokerages and transport stocks: C.H. Robinson (-20%), Expediters, JB Hunt, Landstar, Knight Swift all down.
  • Partially due to an article about a new AI platform ("Algorithm" with a "y") enabling smaller companies to scale without adding headcount, stoking fears of margin disruption.
  • Some analysts call the sell-off “irrational” since automation is not new and leading companies already use AI extensively.
• "There’s a lot of concern about the economy. But...the main word I’m hearing from (analysts and investors) is irrational” – Frank Holland [26:52]

6. AI Panic in Commercial Real Estate

• Guest: Alex Goldfarb, Senior Analyst, Piper Sandler
• [31:01-36:29]
• Major commercial real estate firms like CBRE and Newmark have seen >20% declines over two sessions, with market panic centered on the idea that AI will lead to mass white-collar layoffs and empty office buildings.
• Goldfarb thinks these fears are misplaced and echo earlier panics (e.g., the “retail apocalypse” from e-commerce).
  • "There is a fact that AI is bringing an incredible efficiency and people are trying to figure that out. But ultimately it comes down to collaboration and working in the office." – Goldfarb [32:10]
• Opportunities: Newmark highlighted as oversold, with strong fundamentals and global reach.
• Leasing activity in NYC and San Francisco is picking up, particularly among AI companies.

7. AI Safety & The Politics of AI

• Report: Deirdre Bosa
• [37:17-40:17]
• Funding battles: Anthropic puts $20 million into pro-regulation super PAC, OpenAI and allies back a different PAC with $125 million aiming for minimal federal-only rules.
• Major resignations and public warnings from AI safety researchers mark growing internal and external tensions as the latest AI models begin to “self-improve.”
• Growing concern over the origins of AI-generated content and the efficacy of proposed safeguards.

8. Housing’s Huge Miss: Stuck in a "Stalemate"

• Report: Diana Olek | Guest: Ryan Serhant, CEO, Serhant
• [41:04-47:46]
• Existing home sales plunged by over 8% MoM (biggest drop since 2022), with inventory up just slightly YoY but still critically low (3.7 months’ supply versus 6 months balanced).
• "The Realtors chief economist called it a new housing crisis. Movement is not happening and Americans are stuck." – Diana Olek [41:04]
• High prices and locked-in low-rate homeowners mean little buying or selling; the only gains are at the high end ($1M+).
• Serhant disputes "crisis," calling it a "mobility crisis" or "stalemate”:
  • "Homeowners are fine. First-time buyers are being squeezed. Supply needs to meaningfully increase…I think it's a housing stalemate." – Ryan Serhant [44:10]
  • The real problem: US housing policy rewards scarcity, protecting existing homeowners and punishing mobility.
  • Lack of inventory is the core challenge; even favorable loan terms can't help if there aren't enough homes to buy.

Notable Quotes

• Mehdi Hosseini [02:51]: "OEMs… unable to pass on the extra cost to the end customer. We thought 60-70% of costs could be passed on, but memory price increases have been more than expected, and OEMs’ ability to pass on costs is even more limited."

• Chris Grisanti [10:51]: "We absolutely love Nvidia and Microsoft...if the AI spending is going to be spent, and I think it will be, then a lot of it's going to go to Nvidia and Microsoft, and they're both selling below a market multiple."

• Chris Grisanti [16:04]: "I think we have panic and I think that spells opportunity for careful investors."

• Edwin Rocks [19:09]: "About 30% of our business is in data centers and networking, and that's basically riding the wave at the moment."

• Frank Holland [26:52]: "The main word I'm hearing...is irrational with these transport names that have been outperformers...potentially being sold by investors trying to cover losses in other areas like software."

• Alex Goldfarb [32:10]: "There is a fact that AI is bringing an incredible efficiency and people are trying to figure that out. But ultimately it comes down to collaboration and working in the office to create the very product that people are fearful of."

• Ryan Serhant [44:10]: "I don't think it's a housing crisis...I think it's a housing stalemate. Homeowners are fine. First-time buyers are being squeezed. Supply needs to meaningfully increase."

Important Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Market Open & AI dislocation overview | 00:57-02:51 | | Memory pressure (Hosseini) | 02:51-08:50 | | Value investing & AI (Grisanti) | 10:02-16:34 | | 10-year bond auction (Santelli) | 14:27-16:04 | | TTM Technologies CEO on data center demand (Rocks) | 18:45-23:19 | | Trucking/transport sell-off (Holland) | 26:30-28:57 | | Commercial real estate panic (Goldfarb) | 31:01-36:29 | | AI safety & politics (Bosa) | 37:17-40:17 | | Housing/mobility crisis (Olek, Serhant) | 41:04-47:46 |

Memorable Moments

• Chris Grisanti calling Nvidia and Microsoft (traditionally “growth” stocks) his “value investor” picks, marking a clear paradigm shift. [10:51]
• Frank Holland jokes there’s “no fun name” for this trucking sell-off, unlike prior crises, highlighting the speed and unease of the panic. [28:09]
• Ryan Serhant reframing the US residential “crisis” as a policy-manufactured stalemate, not a classic market failure. [44:10]

Summary

This episode provides a high-level view of how the AI revolution is shaking markets, upending old narratives about technology, value investing, industrial sectors, and even housing. Hardware suppliers are the new kings, while software, transport, and real estate players struggle against investor panic—often driven by uncertainty rather than new facts. In housing, the American dream of ownership is stuck not just for first-time buyers but for everyone, due to structural inertia and policy mismatches. Throughout, seasoned voices urge listeners to separate fleeting market panic from lasting structural change and to look for opportunities amid the turbulence.